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Hospitals commonly project demand for their services by combining their historical share of regional demand with forecasts of total regional demand. Hospital-specific forecasts of demand that provide prediction intervals, rather than point estimates, may facilitate better managerial decisions, especially when demand overage and underage are associated with high, asymmetric costs. Regional forecasts of patient demand are commonly available as a Poisson random variable, e.g., for the number of people requiring hospitalization due to an epidemic such as COVID-19. However, even in this common setting, no probabilistic, consistent, computationally tractable forecast is available for the fraction of patients in a region that a particular institution should expect. We introduce such a forecast, DICE (Demand Intervals from Consistent Estimators). We describe its development and deployment at an academic medical center in California during the `second wave' of COVID-19 in the Unite States. We show that DICE is consistent under mild assumptions and suitable for use with perfect, biased, unbiased regional forecasts. We evaluate its performance on empirical data from a large academic medical center as well as on synthetic data.

Highly abundant and widespread populations of the introduced eastern Pacific ophiuroid brittle star Ophiothela mirabilis occur in southeast Florida, extending the range of this new non-native species from southern Brazil northward to the Caribbean Sea and Florida, now spanning about 6000 km of latitude along western Atlantic tropical/subtropical shores. This brittle star species, representing two lineages, is an epizoite on shallow-occurring (3–15 m depth) plexaurid octocorals (e.g., Eunicea spp., Muricea elongata, and Plexaurella dichotoma). Overall body color (disk and arms) is commonly beige or orange; a few individuals display combinations of both colors: orange disk/beige arms or beige disk/orange arms. Population densities in situ commonly ranged between 5 and 12 individuals of O. mirabilis per 10-cm-long octocoral branch with up to six arms generally curled around their octocoral host’s branches. In a 33-day experiment, M. elongata colony surface areas with reduced (contracted) polyps and reduced polyp extension lengths were not statistically different between octocorals with brittle stars versus octocorals without brittle stars. At the end of 33 days, brittle star densities demonstrated an overall decline. In a 66-day experiment, increasing brittle star densities resulted in reduced extended polyp areas in M. elongata, but no changes in Eunicea flexuosa. Polyp extension lengths decreased in both octocoral hosts with increasing densities of O. mirabilis. Overall, experimental brittle star densities did not change, with several octocoral hosts revealing increases in O. mirabilis by means of fissiparity. The presence and increasing densities of O. mirabilis causing a reduction in octocoral polyp extension were greatest in M. elongata but did not result in visible adverse effects to host condition. Black spotting on octocoral stems, a sign of tissue deterioration, was not observed during or after the two experiments. Nearly all experimental octocorals demonstrated tissue growth in the 66-day experiment, expanding over relatively large areas of the supporting pedestals.