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This article argues that the international institutions in which negotiations have often taken place have been challenged by increased conflict among member states in the early 21st century. Multilateral international institutions function best when common interests are viewed as paramount by the state parties, because they allow the state parties to negotiate structures and processes that serve their shared interests and values. The paper analyzes the difficulties in managing international conflicts in the UN, osce, nato, and EU since 2000 due in part to the inability to achieve consensus within fractured and stalemated institutions. These problems have increasingly limited the role of these institutions in managing some of the most dangerous global conflicts, including on arms control and disarmament and managing the Russian war in Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to examine profiles of subjective well‐being (SWB) and their stability during the economic hardships associated with the long‐term impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Selected sociodemographic, personality, and context‐related variables were tested as covariates. Data were collected from 1755 participants (mean age 45.75 ± 15.99 years) in a nationwide panel over four waves (from November 2022 to June 2023; 34.3% dropout rate). SWB was measured using the Satisfaction with Life Scale and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule, while personality traits were assessed with the Ten‐Item Personality Inventory. Latent profile and transition analyses identified four SWB profiles (ambivalent, average, low, high) that remained stable over 8 months despite a significant drop in the inflation rate. Subjectively evaluated financial situation and the perceived impact of inflation on the household were significant covariates of profile membership, even after controlling for personality traits. The results of this study support the set‐point theory of SWB and suggest that SWB is stable under socially shared circumstances of economic hardships, which may be attributed to both individual‐level and country‐level processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This commentary explores the intersection between climate, conflict, and child nutrition, highlighting the severe child nutrition crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa exacerbated by climate change and ongoing conflicts. Shifting climate patterns disrupt agricultural productivity and food security, while persistent conflicts displace populations and destroy infrastructure, significantly increasing food insecurity and malnutrition among children. Recent UNICEF data indicates that 1 in 4 children globally live in severe food poverty, with those affected up to 50% more likely to suffer from life-threatening malnutrition. Over half a billion children reside in areas prone to climate-related extreme weather events, challenging food production, distribution, and access. Extreme weather events have led to crop failures, food shortages, and price spikes, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns also alter the nutritional content of crops, worsening nutritional challenges. Conflicts in SSA have led to a food crisis of unprecedented scale, with over 80% of the 137 million Africans facing acute food insecurity located in conflict-affected countries. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further disrupted global food and fertilizer supply chains, exacerbating food shortages and inflation in many African countries. Addressing this crisis requires a multifaceted approach integrating evidence-based, cost-effective strategies. This commentary advocates for the adoption of the 3 C approach—climate-smart school feeding programs, cultivation of edible insects, and community-based food hubs—as solutions to enhance child nutrition and build climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the close relationship between Australia and New Zealand, highlighting their deep ties in various sectors such as foreign affairs, defense, and people-to-people links. While the alliance is often taken for granted, the evolving geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific region necessitate a closer examination of the alliance to address potential challenges. Experts from both countries offer diverse perspectives on the alliance's operation and future, emphasizing the need for increased dialogue, research, and understanding to strengthen the relationship. The article also acknowledges the settler-colonial identities of both countries and calls for further research on how indigenous populations perceive and experience the alliance. [Extracted from the article]

The article explores the evolving role of independent and semi-affiliated hackers in modern conflicts, with a focus on the Ukrainian IT Army in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Topics include the establishment and hybrid nature of the Ukrainian IT Army; the International Committee of the Red Cross's proposed Rules of Engagement for civilian hackers; and the legal ambiguity surrounding the status of hackers as civilians or combatants, affecting their protection under international law.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated the largest crisis of displaced persons since the Second World War. In order to respond to the protection needs of these people, the EU activated the application of Temporary Protection, which has made it possible to guarantee rights such as access to work, education, health, shelter and maintenance to these people in a short period of time. Spain has been one of the main receiving countries and has implemented temporary protection in a more effective way. Parallel to the temporary application, the EU has been updating its common migration and asylum policy with the approval of the European Pact on Migration and Asylum. This pact has not included the good practices developed during the implementation of temporary protection, focusing on border control. Spain should maintain the positive aspects that have been developed in the application of temporary protection in the elaboration of the national plan for the implementation of the Pact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to forecast the electricity prices in the day-ahead market (DAM) with complex recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which are powerful in predicting the sequential prices with lags of unknown duration between significant peaks in the price curve. Recently, the electricity markets have been shaken by random events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, long short-term memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and echo state networks (ESNs) are more appropriate for memorizing random events that must be remembered after some time to adequately enhance the mid- and short-run forecast. Both methods overcome the vanishing gradient problem that is common for RNN using memory cells and gates that allow the updating of the memory and tracking long-term dependencies in the input sequence. Several time series prices from neighboring East European countries and the derivation of fundamental variables are combined to predict the electricity price in Romania. The input data cover 2019–2022. The best results were obtained for 2021, whereas the best solution is provided by bi-LSTM. The prediction is proven to be reliable for the next 3–4 days. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) almost doubled in 2022, but to further improve the results, a higher number of neurons is taken for each layer and MAE decreased. Relative to ensemble models, there was a 12.81% reduction in MAE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social representations of the war, anchored in historical experience and cultural values, play a motivational role in justifying collective behavior. Following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the research delves into the meanings associated with war through a social representation approach. Employing Doise's sociodynamic approach, researchers identify the semantic field linked with war and analyze its organizing principles, revealing the variability of representations. In total, 313 Italian participants (female = 241, 75.4%; age range = 18–74) completed a questionnaire featuring a free association task with the word "war", providing demographic and political and religious orientation data. Lexical correspondence analysis, utilizing Spad-t software, highlights three polarized themes: the emotional dimension aroused by war, media-conveyed imagery, and the underlying causes of conflict. The social anchoring analysis projects variables such as gender and political orientation onto a factorial plane. Finally, cluster analysis dissects psychological anchoring, identifying four distinct groups characterized by their descriptions of war: effects, reasons, emotions, and images. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of migrant children in Lithuania is increasing every year. For many years, the majority of migrants (around 82%) were returning Lithuanians, but since 2022, due to the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, a large influx of Ukrainian immigrants has been observed: 7761 children have arrived in Lithuania since the outbreak of the full-scale invasion. This study aims to highlight the integration-related challenges that educators face in the context of the increasing number of migrant children. Qualitative, semi-structured interviews (N = 9) were applied to investigate the issue and outline possible solutions from the point of view of educators. The study was conducted in a school with 875 students, including 31 (3.5%) immigrants. The empirical study revealed that the school implements the integration of migrant children in accordance with the recommendations issued by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Sport. Upon the arrival of a migrant child, the committee assesses the child's knowledge, interviews the parents, and determines the appropriate class placement and learning methods. An individual education plan is then devised based on the expectations of both the child and their parents. Teachers face challenges related to language barriers and cultural differences. The provision of courses developing intercultural competence, more language lessons, and training for both children and their parents are considered to be the most important conditions for the successful integration of migrant children into the education system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negative impacts of COVID-19, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, political unrest, and natural disasters in sub-Saharan Africa have caused widespread suffering. In light of these crises, many have questioned the relevance of theology in addressing such complex challenges. This article tackles critical questions such as: How can public theology effectively engage with the socio-political and economic issues facing sub-Saharan Africa? What role does public pastoral care play in fostering resilience within these communities? Can theology provide tangible support in the face of widespread suffering, and if so, how? The article argues that public theology offers a resilient framework to guide communities through these difficult times, particularly when integrated with public pastoral care. Public theology can provide hope, support, and a sense of purpose to those affected by engaging both spiritual and social dimensions. The article further explores how public pastoral care, as a practical expression of public theology, can address individuals' and communities' emotional, psychological, and spiritual needs. Ultimately, it demonstrates that public theology is relevant and essential in fostering resilience and promoting human flourishing in the face of adversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses disruptions in clinical trials caused by external events like pandemics, warfare, and natural disasters, leading to complications such as site closures, supply chain interruptions, and travel restrictions. It explores the use of randomization tests to address disruptions in clinical trials and highlights the importance of incorporating trial disruptions as intercurrent events in the statistical analysis plan. The article also introduces Targeted Learning (TL) as a method to handle disruptions in clinical trials, emphasizing the need for robust analytic strategies in the statistical analysis plan. TL provides a guide for statistical and causal inference, aligning with the principles set forth in the International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) E9(R1) addendum. [Extracted from the article]

Recent examples for unplanned external events are the global COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, or most recently Hurricane Ian in Puerto Rico. Disruptions due to unplanned external events can lead to violation of assumptions in clinical trials. In certain situations, randomization tests can provide nonparametric inference that is robust to violation of the assumptions usually made in clinical trials. The ICH E9 (R1) Addendum on estimands and sensitivity analyses provides a guideline for aligning the trial objectives with strategies to address disruptions in clinical trials. In this article, we embed randomization tests within the estimand framework to allow for inference following disruptions in clinical trials in a way that reflects recent literature. A stylized clinical trial is presented to illustrate the method, and a simulation study highlights situations when a randomization test that is conducted under the intention-to-treat principle can provide unbiased results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The digital age has brought about fundamental questions about the viability of the public sphere. While a shared and inclusive communicative space is widely considered to be a fundamental requirement for democratic deliberation, the rise of social (and other digital) media has prompted concerns about a potential fragmentation of the public sphere. Accompanied by the simultaneous decline of quality journalism, social media have facilitated the emergence of semi-public echo chambers of like-minded people. Against the backdrop of debates on post-truth politics, such echo chambers are important arenas for the dissemination of false information, but they also undermine the epistemic added value of deliberation by inhibiting discussion on competing truth claims. Based on the argument that post-truth politics is intimately connected to the fragmentation of the public sphere, this article analyses the extent to which the German public sphere has shown signs of polarisation and fragmentation in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This is done by investigating to which extent to which debates in leading German media have managed to adequately represent all relevant perspectives on the Russian invasion, and conversely to which extent dissonant voices have been excluded from such debates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The persistent nuclear threat continues to loom large, particularly in the contemporary landscape shaped by the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, often referred to as the Second Cold War. This conflict has drawn global attention and triggered an upsurge in nuclear discourse within the media, leading to a resurgence of radiophobia. This article aims to introduce the works of several artists who have undertaken the challenging task of rendering visible the imperceptible, ensuring that the nuclear threat and the repercussions of radiation are not relegated to oblivion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the arrival of 170,000 refugees, the already fragile Italian refugee system was forced to undergo major re‐structuring and expansion. Re‐organisation included the adoption of partially new multi‐level governance relationships, as well as political instruments. Despite the widespread positive attitude of public opinion toward the Ukrainian refugees and the bipartisan support for their reception, the outcome of the policy has been not in line with the goals the proponents set out to achieve. In fact, there have been delays, poor assistance to those who have offered to host, and, in the end, a partial waste of the economic and human resources which were devoted to the reception itself. The purpose of this article is to investigate the origin and development of the "vices" of this process, departing from the interpretive lens on policy and governance failure. Our findings consolidate the theoretical challenge to the reductive binary rhetoric on success and failure, and the classic view of failure confined to formulation and implementation. In addition, the article shows that multi‐level governance dynamics are strongly relevant in explaining the "vices" of policies, particularly highlighting the role, until now largely disregarded, of the latent conflicts between the actors involved. The study has benefited from 38 semi‐structured interviews with political actors, including third‐party organisations and public actors, the analysis of political documents, and local and national media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely warning to policy-makers and the general public about the planned Russian invasion of Ukraine is hailed as an intelligence and strategic communication success. It has resulted in increased confidence in US and UK intelligence services and in revigorated involvement in strategic communication in security and defence. Decision-makers at all levels seem to have understood that employing intelligence in strategic communication in a timely and transparent manner can lead to enhanced public understanding of ongoing security challenges and support for measures that could affect their own well-being, as well as to restore confidence in government actions. The current research analyzes how intelligence was integrated into the strategic communications of the US, UK, NATO and the EU in the months preceding the Russian invasion in Ukraine. The objective of the research is to draw lessons learned during this period to better understand how, to what extent and in what circumstances traditionally classified intelligence products can be integrated in decision-makers’ strategic communication and what limitations need to be imposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of right-wing alternative news sources has moved to the center of scholarly attention recently. Such sources cater to news consumers characterized by extreme political views and mistrust toward mainstream news. However, research into the predictors of alternative news consumption is still scarce. We approach this gap by combining online tracking and survey data from 2,009 German panel participants. We find conspiratorial thinking and pro-Russian stance to be predictors of alternative news consumption, both in absolute and in relative terms. Our analysis thus contributes to a more nuanced understanding of alternative news consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The war in Ukraine was expected to result in severe consequences for the Russian economy, with international sanctions reversing three decades of integration into the global economy. Yet Russian economic performance has confounded those expectations and fueled the war effort, even as the formidable Russian military initially faltered. Russia's market core has provided flexibility, while trade with China and the Global South has replaced closed Western channels. But shifting much of the country's productive capacity into the military sector may prove unsustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article engages with the debate about the causes for Russia's full-scale military invasion in Ukraine. The existing explanations are organized into three groups revolving around commonalities in their basic assumptions and causal arguments: geopolitics, civilisational choice, and dead-end capitalist transition. The aim is not to advance any theory in particular but to facilitate theory-building in general by identifying intellectual shortcuts and unresolved contradictions in all groups of explanations. The categorization cuts across disciplinary divisions and theoretical camps to propose a typology of arguments that can facilitate the development of better explanations for the invasion. This is relevant not only for the heuristic value of theorisations, but also for ensuring that the conditions precipitating the invasion are not reproduced in the post-war order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue undertakes an examination of the multidimensional perspectives authors have written to address the ongoing struggle in the quest for peace and justice. While there is an abundance of lengthy and detailed scholarly analyses available about the issues of violence, war, and peace and justice, these short, concise essays take a rather unique approach. They look at the topic from a variety of perspectives, which includes activists not in the academy, an academic playwright, a museum curator, an international relations scholar, and historians writing about parks and gardens, music, how to best understand the war in Ukraine, and the important role pedagogy can play in the classroom. These contributions not only rely on current research but also are designed to offer a blueprint on how interested readers can work to overcome present obstacles blocking the path to peace and justice. The thread tying them together is not what they say but what they do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

My contribution will explore how the Russian war on Ukraine could impact the evolution of peace history as a field. Drawing on various proposals to end the conflict, it will explain why peace historians should continue to do the work that they normally do such as describing grassroots activism against the war and how Ukrainians have used nonviolent tactics to resist the Russian occupation. But it will also explain why the war reinforces the need to spend more time exploring how the diverse peoples of the world have understood legitimate civic ordering and the acceptable use of violence at specific moments in time—a task necessary to undermine the historical falsehoods that Russians have used to justify their aggression against Ukraine. Finally, my contribution will grapple with the relationship between peace and military history, explaining why peace historians need to become more comfortable addressing what a country like Ukraine needs to do on the battlefield to survive as a nation and build a more just and peaceful world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European Union (EU) budgetary politics are considered a stable domain of EU policymaking. Yet, the creation of the pandemic recovery plan NextGenerationEU (NGEU) marked an important innovation. Then, in the face of Russia's war against Ukraine and the EU's energy crisis, member states adopted REPowerEU to accelerate the Union's 'green' transition. Developing a historical institutionalist framework, we theorize the driving forces behind these new budgetary instruments. We see a double-dynamic at work: on the one hand, sudden events or crises, like a pandemic or war, create momentum for institutional and policy innovation. On the other hand, the new instruments build upon, and further stimulate, established patterns of EU budgetary politics. Empirically, we document that the concepts of 'layering' and 'conversion' capture best the EU's financial responses to the pandemic and the energy crisis. Together, the EU's new tools suggest gradual, though decisive, steps towards supranational policy steering through the budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the phenomenon of 'sellers' inflation', that is to say, the increases in consumer prices as a result of firms' decision to increase their selling prices as much as possible in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. This analysis focuses also on central banks' responses to such inflationary pressures, which monetary authorities have been trying to limit with several increases in their policy rates of interest. The paper explains the major shortcomings of this monetary policy strategy and its negative consequences for a number of economic agents. The last section puts forward an alternative economic policy stance, proposing in particular a series of 'green' monetary policy interventions to address these inflationary pressures in the general interest for the common good. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aftermath of the pandemic crisis and the war in Ukraine have revived the debate on the causes and consequences of inflation, as well as the policies needed to combat its effects. Despite the obvious absence of a role for monetary policy in triggering price rises, the response of monetary authorities, especially in the Eurozone, has been conventional: raising interest rates, with negative consequences for activity levels. In this paper we argue that the inflation episode we are witnessing is a consequence of the attempt by profit-makers to maintain the same (if not higher) levels of profitability as before. It is, therefore, a case of conflict inflation. The policies needed to avoid severe consequences for the weakest sections of the population should be aimed at compensating workers against the loss of purchasing power. In this context, Italy is a case study. It is one of the few advanced countries where there is no statutory minimum wage. Considering data from the main studies on the conditions of Italian workers and building our argument on the most recent economic theory, we stress the need for the introduction of a legal minimum wage in Italy and, in general, for upstream redistribution policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents global trends in arms production, building on the most recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In 2022, despite Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and heightened tension around the world, arms production fell in real terms by 3.5 per cent to $597 billion. The decrease was mostly due to the performance of US companies – still plagued by the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic – and not offset by increases in other regions. Notwithstanding the global decrease, arms revenue was still 14 per cent higher than in 2015, the year in which SIPRI started including Chinese arms companies. Procurement plans for the replenishment of stockpiles and modernisation of military equipment deployed by states around the world are mostly not yet reflected in the revenue of the arms industry. In addition to the lengthy time lag between orders and deliveries, many companies have faced challenges in scaling up production. However, high order intakes suggest that arms revenue may rise significantly in the years ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of the war in Ukraine has had a profound and far-reaching impact on the global economy, with notable repercussions observed in stock markets, and particularly pronounced effects evident in commodities markets. This paper examines the connectedness network among 27 NATO stock markets, Russian stock market and a set of three commodity indices (energy, precious metals, and agricultural commodities) over the period 2017-2023. The empirical strategy consists of time and time-frequency connectedness metrics. The empirical results reveal that the connectedness structure has shifted during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Moreover, hit by a series of Western sanctions, Russia's stock market appears to be the most isolated of the considered markets during the war period. Furthermore, the energy, agricultural and precious metals commodities seem to be efficient hedging instruments for investors in the stock markets of the NATO countries during the war period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the return intentions of Ukrainian refugee women who fled to various European countries following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By analysing data from the cross‐national OneUA survey, which included over 18,000 respondents in eight European countries, this research investigates the interplay of contextual, compositional, and cross‐level interaction effects on their intentions to return to Ukraine. Our findings reveal notable country differences in return intentions, with Ukrainian women in the Netherlands and Germany displaying the lowest intentions to return, while those in Moldova and Romania showing the highest. Individual‐level effects, encompassing factors such as level of education, language skills, partnership status, and region of origin play a significant role in shaping return intentions, yet do not explain the observed country variations. Furthermore, we find that individual‐level effects are remarkably consistent across different European countries, suggesting that country‐ and individual‐level conditions independently shape return intentions. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the complexities underlying refugees' return intentions, shedding light on both the broad influences of country context and the significance of individual characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the article is to identify the influence of the first months of Russian aggression against Ukraine on the recruitment plans of enterprises in the country receiving refugees, as exemplified by the Polish case study. Quantitative research was conducted among 500 Polish enterprises. Based on monthly measurements, before and after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, information was received from enterprises on their plans related to recruitment, including Ukrainian workers. Additionally, secondary data available from public databases was analysed. Clustering methods were used to analyse the dynamics and structure of the data gathered from the enterprises. Correspondence analysis was implemented to visualize the relationship between the structure of enterprises and recruitment decisions. The war in Ukraine influenced a deterioration of operating conditions for Polish companies. Regardless of the barriers faced by the companies, in April 2022, all enterprises willing to increase employment were thinking of hiring refugees from Ukraine. Such targeted demand from employers created the conditions for the rapid labour activation of refugees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous reduction of fossil energy storage in the world, the environmental problems caused by fossil energy are becoming increasingly prominent. The intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also led to a crisis in the global energy supply. Under the international background of energy conservation and emission reduction, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically and deeply study the diffusion path of new energy industry-leading technology and put forward relevant policies and suggestions scientifically and feasible for promoting the diffusion activities of new energy industry-leading technology. This paper uses literature analysis to determine the external and internal factors that influence the diffusion of new energy industry-leading technology, and analysis of the configuration of various factors through the fsQCA method, the diffusion path of leading technology in the new energy industry is obtained. The technology and environment curve is drawn to divide the technology diffusion process into different stages. In addition, we selected the solar energy industry, a relatively perfect branch of China's new energy industry with a long development history, for case analysis to verify the diffusion path of leading technology in the new energy industry proposed in the article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the EU's deployment of EU collective power in response to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Collective power has two dimensions, the 'power to' and the 'power with', which translate into the power to get things done and the power to act in concert. These two dimensions of power are underpinned by a third dimension, discursive power. The analytical framework consists of two bundles of activity, agenda setting and problem recognition (the problem frame) and the development of policy solutions (the action frame). Agreeing a problem frame is a necessary but insufficient requirement for action which requires agreement among the member states on what they are prepared to commit to in terms of policy instruments. The paper concludes that the EU avoided a politics trap during these crises by reaching consensus on both the problem and action frames and were assisted in this by the emergence of three EU polity norms and the mobilisation of institutional capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the 2009 sovereign debt crisis to the 2022 Russian full-scale war in Ukraine, the EU has experienced a succession of intersecting crises, or a 'polycrisis'. We examine how this polycrisis has impacted the EU's role in security and defence. While the EU's competences in security and defence have long suffered from disagreements among member states, they have shown notable developments since Brexit, and most importantly, since the 2022 war in Ukraine. We make a two-step argument to shed light on why the polycrisis has had these differentiated effects over time. The first move we make is to unpack the polycrisis to explain why and when an increase in competences may take place. We single out two crises that offer pathways for positive politicisation, leading to increased cooperation and competences: an external military threat and an internal crisis in the form of the loss of a major veto player. In a second step, we argue that the existence of an alternative organisation, NATO, helps us explain where and what cooperation can take place. Shared military threats can lead to complementary rather than substitutive empowerment at least during the duration of the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2016, the EU has widely been considered to be in a state of 'polycrisis', where simultaneous, mutually reinforcing challenges threaten the Union's cohesion and legitimacy. Such polycrises may fracture Europe's political space, creating cross-cutting 'polycleavages' that polarise member states and their citizens asymmetrically, thereby constraining the EU's capacity to forge effective compromises on key policy issues. In so doing, they exacerbate the risk of the EU's falling into a multi-level 'politics trap', where negative politicisation of European issues inhibits national leaders from agreeing ambitious solutions in intergovernmental negotiations, while the ensuing deadlock in turn saps the Union's output-based legitimacy and fuels a Eurosceptic 'constraining dissensus'. In this introductory article, we develop an analytical framework elaborating the concepts of polycrises, polycleavages, and politics traps, which we then use to present and interpret the main findings of the contributions to this collection, focused on the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The most important takeaway from the contributions to this collection is that – consistent with our framework – the EU has clearly proved more resilient to the potential negative consequences of politicisation than many commentators had expected at the beginning of this long polycrisis decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has become one of the greatest security crises since World War 2, with profound geopolitical and socio-economic implications for Europe and beyond. The upsurge of political and media attention to this war may have increased public support for EU enlargement, with new countries in the Eastern neighbourhood and the Western Balkans receiving the official EU candidate status. By drawing on mechanisms of securitisation and solidarity, this paper tests to what extent the Russian invasion has generated a positive politicisation of EU enlargement. While this crisis may have indeed fostered a permissive consensus in EU public opinion regarding Ukraine's future accession, I observe no such effects for the Western Balkans or Turkey. This finding also remains robust to identity and socioeconomic controls, which have traditionally structured public support for European integration. The empirical part is based on descriptive and regression analyses of data from a representative survey of 7678 respondents in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain conducted at the end of 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do crises bring us closer together? Many have observed how, during the Covid-19 pandemic, several European societies experienced a 'rally around the flag' effect. While this certainly took the form of support for incumbent governments, anecdotal evidence suggests that individuals' European identification may have been affected as well. In this paper, we exploit the unique timing and panel nature of a survey, whose respondents were interviewed in March/beginning of April 2020, again in July 2020, and finally in November 2022 to analyze whether a change in attachment to Europe occurred between the first and the second wave of the pandemic and with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Our results show that the emotive dimension of EU attachment changed over the course of these crises, increasing both during the Covid pandemic and after the invasion of Ukraine. Our results support the view that symmetric crises tend to bring people closer together, suggesting that far-reaching EU-level actions in case of crises create, rather than require, a perception of belonging to an EU-level community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista UNISCI is the property of Unidad de Investigaciones Sobre Seguridad y Cooperacion International (UNISCI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista UNISCI is the property of Unidad de Investigaciones Sobre Seguridad y Cooperacion International (UNISCI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista UNISCI is the property of Unidad de Investigaciones Sobre Seguridad y Cooperacion International (UNISCI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista UNISCI is the property of Unidad de Investigaciones Sobre Seguridad y Cooperacion International (UNISCI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista UNISCI is the property of Unidad de Investigaciones Sobre Seguridad y Cooperacion International (UNISCI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista UNISCI is the property of Unidad de Investigaciones Sobre Seguridad y Cooperacion International (UNISCI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has exposed divisions in European strategic culture and threat perception. The search for a lowest-common-denominator response to the threat has hampered the European reply to the Russian aggression, often forcing the EU to move at the speed of its slowest member, whether in supplying ammunition and equipment to Ukraine or setting up the defence industry needed to accelerate such a supply in the future. Notwithstanding the importance of keeping a broad coalition together, this article argues that it is now time to create a vanguard of like-minded European nations, led by France, Poland and, though not an EU member, the UK, but open to other states, which can force the creation of a new strategic culture able to meet the Russian threat. This 'Beowulf Group', named after the Danish hero from the Anglo-Saxon epic who stood up to the marauding monster Grendel, could establish a Strategic College for Europe, a joint Elite European Reserve Legion and a strategic communications centre, to move European policy in a more active direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The differing reactions between Western nations and the Global South to Russia's invasion of Ukraine present a puzzle. Shouldn't post-colonial states be just as concerned about the principles of national sovereignty and non-intervention as Western countries? The idiosyncratic, ad hoc explanations on a country-by-country basis are insufficient to account for a much broader phenomenon. This article deconstructs the "sovereignty principle" as it is seen in the Global South and examines the standing of the so-called Rules-Based Order (RBO), allegedly under mortal threat by Russia's action. It then argues that a far better explanation for the Global South's reaction is the rise of Active Non-Alignment (ANA). The foreign policy doctrine of ANA arose in Latin America in 2019–2020 in response to US–China tensions, It then spread to the rest of the Global South in 2022–2024 because of the war in Ukraine, BRICS expansion, and the war in Gaza. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution introduces a special forum on the Global South's sovereignty paradox in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. It argues that it is paradoxical that countries which developed the equal sovereignty norm are unwilling to publicly criticize Russia for infringing on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. It further highlights the Global South's duplicity because this group of countries has been extremely critical of the West for violating the United Nations Charter, international law and compromising on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries in the Global South. The forum exames nine countries from the Global South. It illustrates that "cherry picking" is the norm that states have adopted in employing the concept of sovereignty and this is likely to continue in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution examines Egypt's foreign policy towards the Russia-Ukraine war through the lens of its long-standing commitment to the principle of equal sovereignty. Despite its historic adherence to and promotion of this principle, Egypt adopted a balancing position, refraining from publicly condemning Russia or fully supporting Ukraine. By comparing Egypt's stance on the Russia-Ukraine war to its responses in previous cases involving the violation of territorial sovereignty, we demonstrate how Egypt's balancing position on the war represents a deviation from the sovereignty principle. Our analysis suggests that while Egypt has traditionally viewed the sovereignty principle as a cornerstone of its national security and foreign relations, the adverse impact of the Ukraine war on its national security has compelled a reassessment of this stance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to the existing literature on India's stance on the Russia-Ukraine war by arguing and illustrating that India's failure to publicly criticize Russia and its abstention on resolutions condemning Russia for violating Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in international forums highlights India's sovereignty paradox. India is a sovereignty hawk and its neutral position is contrary to the United Nations Charter, international law and its key foreign policy tenets of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a country, non-aggression, non-interference in the domestic affairs of a country and peaceful co-existence. India has been willing to compromise on its principles because the Modi government believes that Russia can play an important role in aiding India to achieve great/leading power status because of the strategic convergence between the two countries regarding a multipolar world order and countering US hegemony, and Moscow enhancing India's security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes China's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in light of its long-standing advocacy for state sovereignty and territorial integrity. It outlines Beijing's reaction to the invasion, examining its political and diplomatic responses, the official discourse and prevalent narratives about Ukraine in China, as well as the recent growth of Sino-Russian economic and military cooperation. In order to contextualize Beijing's position, the article summarizes the key tenets of China's foreign policy, concluding that the single most strongly and persistently advocated principle among these is the assertion of state sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-interference. The subsequent analysis contrasts China's (non-)response to the violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity with its extremely vocal opposition to previous encroachments on state sovereignty, particularly as they pertain to China itself. It associates this "sovereignty paradox" with the fundamentally Realist (rather than normative) nature of China's foreign policy calculus vis-à-vis Russia and Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines Saudi Arabia's complex positioning in the Russia-Ukraine war, considering its adherence to the norm of equal sovereignty alongside its foreign-policy determinants. While the kingdom outwardly supported Ukraine's right to sovereignty following Russia's invasion in February 2022, its continued cooperation with Russia, notably through OPEC+, paints a different picture. Further complicating matters are Saudi Arabia's historical and recent encroachments on neighboring states' sovereignty. The article suggests that these contradictions stem from conflicting foreign-policy objectives, asserting that Saudi Arabia prioritizes regime stability over equal sovereignty. As a result, the kingdom also refrained from joining sanctions against Russia to maintain control over hydrocarbon markets, crucial for regime stability. This underscores Saudi Arabia's willingness to compromise on principles when its leadership perceives dynastic rule as threatened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution argues that Pakistan's decision to maintain neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war is influenced by its policy to avoid entrapment in "camp politics", signaling a departure from its longstanding strategic dilemma of choosing between major powers such as the US, Russia and China. It also argues that Islamabad's unwillingness to denounce Russia for invading Ukraine and violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity demonstrates Pakistan's "sovereignty paradox". It highlights that Pakistan has always condemned any violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity as a contravention of the right/notion of "equal sovereignty." However, on the Russia-Ukraine war, Pakistan has refrained from condemning Russia's violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which not only violates the country's principled foreign policy stance on the sovereign equality of all states, but also raises questions about its commitment towards the key principles of international law and the UN charter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a post-colonial nation that embraces international law and multilateralism, Brazil was expected to side with those who defend the sanctity of Ukraine's territorial integrity when the country was invaded by Russia. However, as a Global Southern country with tangible geopolitical and economic interests at stake in the war, Brazil turned a blind eye to Russia's defiant move and downplayed the gravity of its breach of the law. This article aims to explore the contradictions in Brazil's foreign policy stance towards the Russo-Ukrainian war. It analyes the difficult balance between ideals and concrete goals that Brazilian diplomats strive to achieve in the ongoing war. In doing so, it also sheds light on the current administration's strategies to cope with today's emerging multipolar order and to avoid falling prey to the "weaponization of interdependence". The article concludes reflecting on Brazil's quest for an actively non-aligned position to address the sovereignty paradox it faces in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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