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Aim To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change. Location South African Cape Floristic Region. Methods We use data-driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species-specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long-distance dispersal on top of expected spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitat. Results Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography. Main conclusions Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data-driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1 Secondary seed dispersal by wind, the wind-driven movement of seeds along the ground surface, is an important dispersal mechanism for plant species in a range of environments. 2 We formulate a mechanistic model that describes how secondary dispersal by wind is affected by seed traits, wind conditions and obstacles to seed movement. The model simulates the movement paths of individual seeds and can be fully specified using independently measured parameters. 3 We develop an explicit version of the model that uses a spatially explicit representation of obstacle patterns, and also an aggregated version that uses probability distributions to model seed retention at obstacles and seed movement between obstacles. The aggregated version is computationally efficient and therefore suited to large-scale simulations. It provides a very good approximation of the explicit version ( R2 > 0.99) if initial seed positions vary randomly relative to the obstacle pattern. 4 To validate the model, we conducted a field experiment in which we released seeds of seven South African Proteaceae species that differ in seed size and morphology into an arena in which we systematically varied obstacle patterns. When parameterized with maximum likelihood estimates obtained from independent measurements, the explicit model version explained 70–77% of the observed variation in the proportion of seeds dispersed over 25 m and 67–69% of the observed variation in the direction of seed dispersal. 5 The model tended to underestimate dispersal rates, possibly due to the omission of turbulence from the model, although this could also be explained by imprecise estimation of one model parameter (the aerodynamic roughness length). 6 Our analysis of the aggregated model predicts a unimodal relationship between the distance of secondary dispersal by wind and seed size. The model can also be used to identify species with the potential for long-distance seed transport by secondary wind dispersal. 7 The validated model expands the domain of mechanistic dispersal models, contributes to a functional understanding of seed dispersal, and provides a tool for predicting the distances that seeds move. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding environmental effects on the distribution and abundance of species is central to ecology, biogeography and evolutionary biology. This led to the development of species distribution models (SDMs) that relate spatial variation in occurrence and abundance to environmental variables. So far, SDMs rarely considered habitat structure, as a major determinant of bird distributions. While remote sensing increasingly provides high-resolution measures of habitat structure, certain structural variables affecting bird abundance still need to be measured with field surveys. In this study, we compare the value of remotely sensed vs. field-surveyed habitat structure for predicting bird abundance. Specifically, we analysed abundance data for nine bird species of traditional orchards in South-Western Germany. 'Remote sensing SDMs' related abundance to structural variables obtained by aerial photogrammetry of individual orchard trees. Alternative 'field survey SDMs' related bird abundance to detailed field surveys of the species composition and pruning state of orchard trees. Additionally, both remote sensing and field survey SDMs included climate and land use variables. Accounting for detailed habitat structure improved abundance predictions for seven of nine study species compared to models only incorporating climate and land use. The impact on model performance differed between remotely sensed and field-surveyed variables: the former improved abundance models for most (n = 7) bird species, whereas the latter had more variable impact, decreasing model performance for five species. The remotely sensed variable with strongest effects was overall tree density, which positively affected abundance of seven species. In contrast, multiple field-surveyed variables had similar effect strength, with the overall strongest effect found for pear tree density, to which seven bird species showed a unimodal response. These analyses have conservation implications since they predict expected responses of bird species to ongoing changes in orchard structure. Moreover, they identify structural variables that will be most promising to measure via remote sensing data in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Understanding and predicting recruitment in species‐rich plant communities requires identifying functional determinants of both density‐independent performance and interactions.In a common‐garden field experiment with 25 species of the woody plant genus Protea, we varied the initial spatial and taxonomic arrangement of seedlings and followed their survival and growth during recruitment. Neighbourhood models quantified how six key functional traits affect density‐independent performance, interaction effects and responses.Trait‐based neighbourhood models accurately predicted individual survival and growth from the initial spatial and functional composition of species‐rich experimental communities. Functional variation among species caused substantial variation in density‐independent survival and growth that was not correlated with interaction effects and responses. Interactions were spatially restricted but had important, predominantly competitive, effects on recruitment. Traits increasing the acquisition of limiting resources (water for survival and soil P for growth) mediated trade‐offs between interaction effects and responses. Moreover, resprouting species had higher survival but reduced growth, likely reinforcing the survival–growth trade‐off in adult plants.Resource acquisition of juvenile plants shapes Protea community dynamics with acquisitive species with strong competitive effects suffering more from competition. Together with functional determinants of density‐independent performance, this makes recruitment remarkably predictable, which is critical for efficient restoration and near‐term ecological forecasts of species‐rich communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant population spread has fundamental ecological and evolutionary importance. Both determinants of plant population spread, fecundity and dispersal, can be density‐dependent, which should cause feedback between population densities and spread dynamics. Yet it is poorly understood how density‐dependence affects key characteristics of spread: spread rate at which the location of the furthest forward individual moves, edge depth (the geographical area over which individuals contribute to spread) and population continuity (occupancy of the spreading population).We present a general modelling framework for analysing the effects of density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal on population spread and parameterize this framework with experimental data from a common‐garden experiment using five wind‐dispersed plant species grown at different densities.Our model shows that density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal strongly affect all three population spread characteristics for both exponential and lognormal dispersal kernels. Spread rate and edge depth are strongly correlated but show weaker correlations with population continuity. Positive density‐dependence of fecundity increases all three spread characteristics. Increasingly positive density‐dependence of dispersal increases spread rate and edge depth but generally decreases population continuity. Density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal are largely additive in their effect on spread characteristics. For population continuity, the joint effects of density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal are somewhat contingent on the dispersal kernel.The common‐garden experiment and the experimentally parameterized mechanistic dispersal model revealed density‐dependent fecundity and dispersal across study species. All study species exhibited negatively density‐dependent fecundity, but they differed qualitatively in the density‐dependence of dispersal distance and probability of long‐distance dispersal. The negative density‐dependence of fecundity and dispersal found for three species reinforced each other in reducing spread rate and edge depth. The positively density‐dependent dispersal found for two species markedly increased spread rate and edge depth. Population continuity was hardly affected by population density in all study species except Crepis sancta in which it was strongly reduced by negatively density‐dependent fecundity.Synthesis. Density‐dependent fecundity and seed dispersal profoundly alter population spread. In particular, positively density‐dependent dispersal should promote the spread and genetic diversity of plant populations migrating under climate change but also complicate the control of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The seeds of many plant species can be dispersed over long distances in animal fur (epizoochory). Quantifying epizoochory in the wild is, however, challenging, since it is difficult to measure the retention times of seeds in fur. These retention times depend on the acceleration that seeds experience and that can detach seeds from fur. Wildlife collars containing accelerometers may thus provide crucial information on epizoochorous seed dispersal. However, this is only the case if acceleration of the animal's neck (where collars are attached) is informative of acceleration of the animal's main body (where most seeds are transported). Methods: We used accelerometers to simultaneously measure acceleration at the neck, breast and the upper hind leg of 40 individuals of eight mammal species spanning a large range of body masses (26–867 kg). We then quantified maximum acceleration as the 95%-quantile of the resultant acceleration (of all measured values in data intervals of 5 s). Results: Maximum acceleration was comparable between the neck and breast but substantially higher at the hind leg. Maximum acceleration measured by neck collars and body mass jointly explained 81% of the variance in maximum acceleration of the breast and 62% of the variance in maximum acceleration of the leg. Conclusions: Acceleration measured by neck collars is informative of the acceleration experienced by seeds attached to other body parts (breast and leg). When combined with animal movement data and lab measurements of how fur acceleration affects seed release and retention times, widely used collar accelerometers can thus be used to assess distances of epizoochorous seed dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecological niche of a species describes the variation in population growth rates along environmental gradients that drives geographic range dynamics. Niches are thus central for understanding and forecasting species' geographic distributions. However, theory predicts that migration limitation, source-sink dynamics, and time-lagged local extinction can cause mismatches between niches and geographic distributions. It is still unclear how relevant these niche-distribution mismatches are for biodiversity dynamics and how they depend on species life-history traits. This is mainly due to a lack of the comprehensive, range-wide demographic data needed to directly infer ecological niches for multiple species. Here we quantify niches from extensive demographic measurements along environmental gradients across the geographic ranges of 26 plant species (Proteaceae; South Africa). We then test whether life history explains variation in species' niches and niche-distribution mismatches. Niches are generally wider for species with high seed dispersal or persistence abilities. Life-history traits also explain the considerable interspecific variation in niche-distribution mismatches: poorer dispersers are absent from larger parts of their potential geographic ranges, whereas species with higher persistence ability more frequently occupy environments outside their ecological niche. Our study thus identifies major demographic and functional determinants of species' niches and geographic distributions. It highlights that the inference of ecological niches from geographical distributions is most problematic for poorly dispersed and highly persistent species. We conclude that the direct quantification of ecological niches from demographic responses to environmental variation is a crucial step toward a better predictive understanding of biodiversity dynamics under environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alien plants experience novel abiotic conditions and interactions with native communities in the introduced area. Intra- and interspecific selection on functional traits in the new environment may lead to increased population growth with time since introduction (residence time). However, selection regimes might differ depending on the invaded habitat. Additionally, in high-competition habitats, a build-up of biotic resistance of native species due to accumulation of eco-evolutionary experience to aliens over time may limit invasion success. We tested if the effect of functional traits and the population dynamics of aliens depends on interspecific competition with native plant communities. We conducted a multi-species experiment with 40 annual Asteraceae that differ in residence time in Germany. We followed their population growth in monocultures and in interspecific competition with an experienced native community (varying co-existence times between focals and community). To more robustly test our findings, we used a naïve community that never co-existed with the focals. We found that high seed mass decreased population growth in monocultures but tended to increase population growth under high interspecific competition. We found no evidence for a build-up of competition-mediated biotic resistance by the experienced community over time. Instead, population growth of the focal species was similarly inhibited by the experienced and naïve community. By comparing the effect of experienced and naïve communities on population dynamics over 2 years across a large set of species with a high variation in functional traits and residence time, this study advances the understanding of the long-term dynamics of plant invasions. In our study system, population growth of alien species was not limited by an increase of competitive effects by native communities (one aspect of biotic resistance) over time. Instead, invasion success of alien plants may be limited because initial spread in low-competition habitats requires different traits than establishment in high-competition habitats., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2023 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Due to massive energetic investments in woody support structures, trees are subject to unique physiological, mechanical, and ecological pressures not experienced by herbaceous plants. Despite a wealth of studies exploring trait relationships across the entire plant kingdom, the dominant traits underpinning these unique aspects of tree form and function remain unclear. Here, by considering 18 functional traits, encompassing leaf, seed, bark, wood, crown, and root characteristics, we quantify the multidimensional relationships in tree trait expression. We find that nearly half of trait variation is captured by two axes: one reflecting leaf economics, the other reflecting tree size and competition for light. Yet these orthogonal axes reveal strong environmental convergence, exhibiting correlated responses to temperature, moisture, and elevation. By subsequently exploring multidimensional trait relationships, we show that the full dimensionality of trait space is captured by eight distinct clusters, each reflecting a unique aspect of tree form and function. Collectively, this work identifies a core set of traits needed to quantify global patterns in functional biodiversity, and it contributes to our fundamental understanding of the functioning of forests worldwide., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Organisms have evolved a diversity of life-history strategies to cope with variation in their environment. Persistence as adults and/or seeds across recruitment events allows species to dampen the effects of environmental fluctuations. The evolution of life cycles with overlapping generations should thus permit the colonization of environments with uncertain recruitment. We tested this hypothesis in Leucadendron (Proteaceae), a genus with high functional diversity native to fire-prone habitats in the South African fynbos. We analyzed the joint evolution of life-history traits (adult survival and seed-bank strategies) and ecological niches (climate and fire regime), using comparative methods and accounting for various sources of uncertainty. In the fynbos, species with canopy seed banks that are unable to survive fire as adults display nonoverlapping generations. In contrast, resprouters with an underground seed bank may be less threatened by extreme climatic events and fire intervals, given their iteroparity and long-lasting seed bank. Life cycles with nonoverlapping generations indeed jointly evolved with niches with less exposure to frost but not with those with less exposure to drought. Canopy seed banks jointly evolved with niches with more predictable fire return, compared to underground seed banks. The evolution of extraordinary functional diversity among fynbos plants thus reflects, at least in part, the diversity of both climates and fire regimes in this region.