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Global climate models fail to represent the annual cycle of tropical-extratropical cloud bandsand produce too much summer rainfall over subtropical southern Africa. This study demonstrates thatrunning a regional convective-permitting climate simulation alleviates these biases, counteracting biasesthat are present in the parent model. The improvement emerges from stronger vertical mass flux in thetropics, which forces a stronger local Hadley overturning into the summer hemisphere. This enhancedoverturning increases upper-level subsidence in the subtropics and amplifies the forcing of the localsubtropical jet. Together, these improvements halve the wet subtropical rainfall bias and are associatedwith a 50% increase to an 80% match bet ween the simulated and observed annual cycle of crucialtropical-extratropical cloud band rainfall systems. The results advocate for the increased use ofconvective-permitting climate models with domains that include regional tropical convection hot spots, inorder to fully benefit from the explicit representation of deep convection.

This research explores the ability to extract knowledge about the associations among agricultural products which allows to improve the prediction of future consumption in the local markets of the Andean region of Ecuador. This commercial activity is carried out using Alternative Marketing Circuits (CIALCO), seeking to establish a direct relationship between producer and consumer prices, and promote buying and selling among family groups. The fusion of information from spatially located heterogeneous data sources allows to establish the best association rules between data sources (several products in several local markets) to infer a significant improvement in spatial prediction accuracy for sales future agricultural products.

The Southern Hemisphere subtropical convergence zones are important regions of rainfall in the subtropics. The South Indian convergence zone (SICZ) has the strongest seasonality and exhibits substantial interannual variability in strength and position during austral summer. On synoptic time scales, the SICZ is a preferred region for the formation of tropical-extratropical (TE) cloud bands with local maxima over the southern African mainland and Madagascar. This study investigates how the seasonality in satellite-observed cloud band frequency emerges from the interplay between the asynchronous seasonal cycles in convective instability and upper-level flow, as represented by reanalysis data. These atmospheric mean-states are diagnosed with a gross convective instability metric and a method to distinguish between subtropical and eddy-driven jet axes. Month-by-month analysis of these diagnostics elucidates how mean-state perturbations during ENSO events modifies cloud band likelihood. Typically, 150-200% more cloud bands develop during La Niña seasons supported by 5-10° latitudinal separation between the local subtropical and eddy-driven jets and higher values of convective instability, especially in semi-arid parts of mainland southern Africa. During El Niño events, fewer cloud bands develop over southern Africa in a more convectively stable environment without a distinct subtropical jet. However, east of Madagascar cloud bands are 150% more likely. Plausible teleconnection pathways based on these ENSO-related perturbations are discussed. The paper concludes with a conceptual framing of the seasonal cycle in the mean-state pertinent to TE cloud band likelihood.

This research explores the capacity of Information Fusion to extract knowledge about associations among agricultural products, which allows prediction for future consumption in local markets in the Andean region of Ecuador. This commercial activity is performed using Alternative Marketing Circuits (CIALCO), seeking to establish a direct relationship between producer and consumer prices, and promote buying and selling among family groups. In the results we see that, information fusion from heterogenous data sources that are spatially located allows to establish best association rules among data sources (several products on several local markets) to infer significant improvement in time forecasting and spatial prediction accuracy for the future sales of agricultural products.

This article aims at evaluating linkages between selected local traditional knowledge (LTK) indicators with meteorological drought forecasting parameters in the Mzingwane catchment area of Zimbabwe. In addition, the article investigates possible ways of integrating selected LTK indicators with the meteorological drought forecasting parameters to improve applicability of meteorological drought forecasts at local level. LTK forecast data from trees and plants for 2012/2013 season was collected through structured questionnaires administered on 40 household heads. Monthly rainfall data spanning the period September 1999–May 2013 (14 years) were used for the calculation of Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for the study catchment. The trends in drought severity scale were then compared to the results from local traditional knowledge drought forecasting (LTKDF) to find out the degree to which they could be correlated. The GEONETCast ten day composite, SPOT VEGETATION, normalized difference vegetation index (S10 NDVI) dataset with a 1 km resolution was used to evaluate vegetation condition and hence track drought occurrence and severity. The trends in drought severity scale from NDVI were then compared to the results from LTKDF to establish the level of correlation. The analyses carried out shows a good correlation between traditional plant and tree indicators with resulting conditions captured as NDVI and SPI. The challenge on the LKDF systems, however, was lack of historical data to ensure adequate analysis and comparison with meteorological data. The study therefore recommends continuous monitoring and standardisation of LTK data.

Contexto: el síndrome metabólico (SM) es un grupo de problemas de salud que se relaciona con mayor riesgo o probabilidad de complicaciones cardiovasculares, diabetes y mortalidad. Objetivo: determinar la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico en médicos que laboran en el Hospital San Francisco de la ciudad de Quito y describir el consumo de grasas saturadas, de frutas y verduras y el nivel de actividad física. Métodos: estudio observacional, diseño epidemiológico transversal en 90 médicos que laboran en el hospital San Francisco de la ciudad de Quito en quienes se determinó: Síndrome metabólico, con Criterios IDF y ATP III, además se realizó una encuesta de ejercicio y consumo alimentario. Resultados: se estudiaron 90 sujetos, 84% entre 30 y 50 años de edad; 60% mujeres. La prevalencia de síndrome metabólico fue del 16,67 con mayor frecuencia en hombres que en mujeres (p < 0,05), en una razón de 3:1, no hubo diferencias significativas con respecto a la edad y la glucosa, pero si con niveles de colesterol, triglicéridos, presión arterial y circunferencia abdominal. El 52,5% son mínimamente activos y el 98,9% no consume frutas ni fibra, el 41,1% consume sal y el 1,1% consume grasas saturadas. Conclusiones: la prevalencia de síndrome metabólico en profesionales médicos de un hospital de la red pública de salud del Ecuador es alto y es más frecuente en hombres. El sedentarismo y los malos hábitos alimentarios parecen estar relacionados con esta alta prevalencia lo que implica que programas de educación para disminuir los factores de riesgo son necesarios.

Coupled models are the tools by which we diagnose and project future climate, yet in certain regions they are critically underevaluated. The Congo Basin is one such region which has received limited scientific attention, due to the severe scarcity of observational data. There is a large difference in the climatology of rainfall in global coupled climate models over the basin. This study attempts to address this research gap by evaluating modeled rainfall magnitude and distribution amongst global coupled models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Mean monthly rainfall between models varies by up to a factor of 5 in some months, and models disagree on the location of maximum rainfall. The ensemble mean, which is usually considered a “best estimate” of coupled model output, does not agree with any single model, and as such is unlikely to present a possible rainfall state. Moisture flux (qflux) convergence (which is assumed to be better constrained than parameterized rainfall) is found to have a strong relationship with rainfall; strongest correlations occur at 700 hPa in March–May (r = 0.70) and 850 hPa in June–August, September–November, and December–February (r = 0.66, r = 0.71, and r = 0.81). In the absence of observations, this relationship could be used to constrain the wide spectrum of modeled rainfall and give a better understanding of Congo rainfall climatology. Analysis of moisture transport pathways indicates that modeled rainfall is sensitive to the amount of moisture entering the basin. A targeted observation campaign at key Congo Basin boundaries could therefore help to constrain model rainfall.

Purpose – This research paper is informed by a study to assess performance of local knowledge drought forecasts (LKDFs) in the Mzingwane catchment which is located in the Limpopo River Basin in Zimbabwe. The purpose of this paper is to validate local traditional knowledge (LTK) indicators being applied in Mzingwane catchment and verify their accuracy and reliability in drought forecasting and early warning. Design/methodology/approach – LTK forecast data for 2012/2013 season were collected through structured questionnaires administered to 40 selected household heads and focus group discussions. Observations and key informant interviews with chiefs and the elderly (>55 years) were also used to collect additional LTK forecast data. Meteorological data on seasonal rainfall were collected from the meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe (MSD). Two sets of comparisons were conducted namely the hind-cast comparison where the LKDF system results were evaluated against what the season turned out to be and forecast comparison where local LKDF system results were compared with downscaled meteorological forecasts. Findings – The results showed that the majority of the LTK indicators used were accurate in forecasting weather and drought conditions when compared to the observed data of what the season turned out to be. LTK forecasts were found to be more accurate than meteorological forecast at local scale. This study has shown that the reliability of LTKs is high as demonstrated by the fact that the predicted event occurs. Research limitations/implications – Further validation be carried out for a number of seasons, in order to standardise the LTK indicators per geographical area. Originality/value – The research creates platform for adoption of LTKs into formal forecasting systems. The research is useful to both meteorological researchers and resource constrained communities in Mzingwane catchment.

In India, the identity of men who have sex with men (MSM) is closely related to the role taken in anal sex (insertive, receptive or both), but little is known about sexual mixing between identity groups. Both role segregation (taking only the insertive or receptive role) and the extent of assortative (within-group) mixing are known to affect HIV epidemic size in other settings and populations. This study explores how different possible mixing scenarios, consistent with behavioural data collected in Bangalore, south India, affect both the HIV epidemic, and the impact of a targeted intervention. Deterministic models describing HIV transmission between three MSM identity groups (mostly insertive Panthis/Bisexuals, mostly receptive Kothis/Hijras and versatile Double Deckers), were parameterised with behavioural data from Bangalore. We extended previous models of MSM role segregation to allow each of the identity groups to have both insertive and receptive acts, in differing ratios, in line with field data. The models were used to explore four different mixing scenarios ranging from assortative (maximising within-group mixing) to disassortative (minimising within-group mixing). A simple model was used to obtain insights into the relationship between the degree of within-group mixing, R0 and equilibrium HIV prevalence under different mixing scenarios. A more complex, extended version of the model was used to compare the predicted HIV prevalence trends and impact of an HIV intervention when fitted to data from Bangalore. With the simple model, mixing scenarios with increased amounts of assortative (within-group) mixing tended to give rise to a higher R0 and increased the likelihood that an epidemic would occur. When the complex model was fit to HIV prevalence data, large differences in the level of assortative mixing were seen between the fits identified using different mixing scenarios, but little difference was projected in future HIV prevalence trends. An oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) intervention was modelled, targeted at the different identity groups. For intervention strategies targeting the receptive or receptive and versatile MSM together, the overall impact was very similar for different mixing patterns. However, for PrEP scenarios targeting insertive or versatile MSM alone, the overall impact varied considerably for different mixing scenarios; more impact was achieved with greater levels of disassortative mixing.

Presents two perspectives bearing on the concept of social competence, the motivational and the socio-cultural; the author was a member of a panel of black experts convened to review, from a black perspective, the lists of outcomes and measures which Rand plans to use to evaluate Head Start. (JM)

Questions the effectiveness of decentralization of New York City school administration in delivering quality education because of local community boards' susceptibility to political pressure and patronage. (SF)

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify, analyse and document local traditional indicators used in drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment and to assess the possibility of integrating traditional rainfall forecasting, using the local traditional indicators, with meteorological forecasting methods. Design/methodology/approach – Self-administered structured questionnaires were conducted on 101 respondents in four districts of the Mzingwane Catchment area, namely, Beitbridge, Mangwe, Esighodini and Mwenezi from February to August 2012. In addition, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also used in data collection and the collected data were analysed for drought history and demographics; drought adaptation and the use of drought forecasting methods in the catchment using Statistical Package for Social Science. Findings – The paper reveals the growing importance of precipitation forecasts among Mzingwane communities, particularly the amount, timing, duration and distribution of rainfall. Rainfall was cited as the major cause of drought by 98 per cent of the respondents in the catchment. Whilst meteorological rainfall forecasts are available through various channels, they are not readily accessible to rural communities. Furthermore, they are not very reliable at local level. The paper shows that communities in the Mzingwane Catchment still regard local traditional knowledge forecasting as their primary source of weather forecasts. The paper finds that plant phenology is widely used by the local communities in the four districts for drought forecasting. Early and significant flowering of Mopane trees (Colophospermum mopane) from September to December has been identified to be one of the signals of poor rainfall season in respect to quantity and distribution and subsequent drought. Late and less significant flowering of Umtopi trees (Boscia albitrunca) from September to December also signals a poor rainfall season. Originality/value – The paper fulfils an identified need to study and document useful traditional drought indicators. Furthermore, the paper provides a platform for possible integration of traditional drought forecasting and meteorological forecasting and ensure sustainable rural livelihood development. The paper is useful to both meteorological researchers and resource-constrained communities in Mzingwane Catchment.

Objective: The aim of the present research was to evaluate the correlation of vertically transmitted IgG antibodies induced by T. cruzi and newborn early outcome assessment, mainly birth weight and gestational age. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study with 183 pregnant women (64 with asymptomatic Chagas disease) and their newborns. Both were subjected to complete clinical examination. Peripheral parasitemia was assessed in mother and neonates by parasite detection through microscopic examination of the buffycoat from mother’s peripheral and cord blood. Antibodies induced by T. cruzi, such as anti-FRA, anti-B13, anti-p2β and anti-T. cruzi were assessed by immunoassay. Birth weight, general condition evaluation by APGAR Score and gestational age by Capurro Score, were determined in newborns. Results: The rate of stillbirth background and pregnancy-induced hypertension were higher in patients with Chagas disease (p = 0.01 and p = 0.02, respectively). Parasitemia was detectable in 17 mothers and 4 newborns. The newborns of mothers with detectable parasitemia presented decreased gestational age (p = 0.006) and body weight (p = 0.04). Mostly all the mothers with Chagas disease and all their newborns have positive values of antibodies induced by T. cruzi; however, only anti-p2β showed to be related to the presence of complication during pregnancy (OR 2.35, p = 0.036), and to low birth weight (OR 1.55, p = 0.02). Conclusions: Low birth weight and decreased postnatal estimation of maturity were related to detectable parasitemia in the mother. Also, vertical transmission of T. cruzi-induced autoantibodies might have clinical implication in newborns given the negative association between anti-p2β values and weight. Fil: Vicco, Miguel Hernán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina Fil: Rodeles Antonelli, Luz María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina Fil: Capovilla, Gabriela Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral; Argentina Fil: Perrig, Melina Soledad. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina Fil: Choque, Ana Gabriela Herrera. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; Bolivia Fil: Marcipar, Iván Sergio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Litoral. Facultad de Bioquímica y Ciencias Biológicas. Laboratorio de Tecnología Inmunológica; Argentina Fil: Bottasso, Oscar Adelmo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; Argentina Fil: Rodriguez, Celeste. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; Bolivia Fil: Cuña, Washington. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; Bolivia

There is an urgent need in the University Teachers to create their own digital educational materials, (MED) that they allow them to customize and contextualize their areas of knowledge with an inclusive approach to support their academic practice as mediators' elements in the teaching-learning process. From this perspective, this text aims, guide, orient, and promote from the theory to practice in the design and production of digital teaching resources, through the paradigm of Learning Objects (OA) without the necessity to be a computer expert and taking into consideration and agile mythologies standards for construction.

Kenya is one of Africa’s most dynamic and entrepreneurial economies, but one with increasing water security risks. These risks are of growing concern to the poor; where it is clear current poverty metrics do not capture the impact and implications of water shocks or long-term human exposure to water risks. This report highlights 4 significant but uncertain developments that will interact to determine Kenya’s progress in its quest to reach middle-income status by 2030 and improve water security for over 17 million poor people: the impacts of decentralisation resilience to climate shocks reducing inequality harnessing mobile ecosystems. The report presents potential locations to establish Water Security Observatories that address these key issues and developments. Through a risk-based approach and science-practitioner partnerships, the observatories are proposed to examine ‘small towns in fragile lands’ and ‘build water secure institutions’ with the goal of reducing water security risks for the poor. This paper is an output from the REACH Improving Water Security for the Poor programme

Sodium accumulating playas (also termed sodic or natric playas) are typically covered by polygonal crusts with different pattern characteristics, but little is known about the short-term (hours) dynamics of these patterns or how pore water may respond to or drive changing salt crust patterning and surface roughness. It is important to understand these interactions because playa-crust surface pore-water and roughness both influence wind erosion and dust emission through controlling erodibility and erosivity. Here we present the first high resolution (10−3m; hours) co-located measurements of changing moisture and salt crust topography using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and infra-red imagery for Sua Pan, Botswana. Maximum nocturnal moisture pattern change was found on the crests of ridged surfaces during periods of low temperature and high relative humidity. These peaks experienced non-elastic expansion overnight, of up to 30 mm and up to an average of 1.5 mm/night during the 39 day measurement period. Continuous crusts on the other hand showed little nocturnal change in moisture or elevation. The dynamic nature of salt crusts and the complex feedback patterns identified emphasise how processes both above and below the surface may govern the response of playa surfaces to microclimate diurnal cycles.

Topographic depressions serve as the key spatial control on large global dust sources. In contrast, the temporal control on these hotspots has remained elusive. We provide the first global observational evidence that the annual cycle of emissions from dust hotspots is determined by an erosivity feature in the form of wind gustiness. We use TOMS AI and an aridity index to define 131 global dust hotspots. The correlation between the annual cycle of gustiness is 70% stronger than the corresponding correlation with wind. The mean significant correlation with wind (n = 106 hotspots) is 0.37 (σ = 0.24) and the mean of significant correlation (n = 118 hotspots) with gustiness is 0.64 (σ = 0.12). Whereas most model simulations of dust have relied on the broadscale wind, gustiness holds overwhelmingly more power in explaining the annual cycle of dust emissions from global dust hotspots.

Southern Africa is subject to strong interannual summer rainfall extremes associated with modes of climate variability. Interaction between these modes and the climate change signal make improving understanding of their future operation and links with southern African rainfall a priority. This paper examines future southern African summer rainfall variability related to meridional dipole mode of southwest Indian Ocean SST variability (thw SWIOD) in coupled climate model HadCM3. The SWIOD is central to southern African rainfall in a 1000-year control simulation, and remains so during the twenty-first century under two different CO2 forcing scenarios: SRES A2 and B1. Future rainfall variability connected with this mode is found to be sensitive to the emissions pathway, particularly in the second half of the century. Flooding episodes with anomalies near 4 mm day-¹ in already wet regions and which are unprecedented in a 1000 year control run are simulated under A2 SRES forcing.

International audience; We present a characterization of the Saharan heat low (SHL) based on dropsonde observations made on 22 June 2011 by two simultaneously flying aircraft during the Fennec project. The observations are used to identify moisture transport pathways and to validate the UK Met Office limited area model for northern Africa (Africa-LAM). The observations capture the SHL, harmattan, and monsoon surge. The SHL has a northeast-southwest orientated elongated shape centered over northern Mauritania. The SHL core is associated with a 950 hPa temperature minimum (36.4°C) in the morning caused by the monsoon surge and a maximum (42.6°C) in the afternoon. The monsoon surge east of the SHL core splits into two transport pathways: (a) curving around the SHL core in the north, especially pronounced in a morning near-surface layer, and (b) northeastward transport within the ~2 km deep monsoon surge (afternoon observations only). In the morning the model forecasts the harmattan, monsoon surge, and the SHL geographic location and northeast-southwest orientation well but the model represents the SHL flatter and more spatially extended and overestimates the convective boundary layer (CBL) by up to ~0.3 km. The simulated afternoon SHL location appears shifted westward by up to ~1°. The model overestimates the shallow afternoon monsoon surge CBL depth of ~1.8 km by >2 km resulting in southwestward transport of vertically mixed moisture above ~2.5 km contrasting observed northeastward-only transport at lower levels. This moisture distribution model error is likely to have consequences for simulations of Saharan thermodynamics and dust emissions caused by convection-driven cold pools.

A distributed modeling approach is applied at a scale that permits visualization of hydrological drought conditions in different tertiary catchments. Hydrological drought sequences are calculated from runoff time-series data. Statistics of runoff and drought impact information from literature are applied to classify hydrological droughts on magnitude, duration, recurrent interval and impact to define a set of hydrological drought indices for specific conditions. The indices are applied on a sample of hydrological drought seasons in a selected primary catchment and visualized in a geographical information software. Scenarios are created to identify worst cases.

A rainfall-runoff model, which can be inter-faced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to integrate definition, measurement, calculating parameter values for spatial features, presents considerable advantages. The modification of the GWBasic Wits Rainfall-Runoff Erosion Model (GWBRafler) to enable parameter value estimation in a GIS (GISRafler) is presented in this paper. Algorithms are applied to estimate parameter values reducing the number of input parameters and the effort to populate them. The use of a GIS makes the relationship between parameter estimates and cover characteristics more evident. This paper has been produced as part of research to generalize the GWBRafler on a spatially distributed basis. Modular data structures are assumed and parameter values are weighted relative to the module area and centroid properties. Modifications to the GWBRafler enable better estimation of low flows, which are typical in drought conditions.

The first size-resolved airborne measurements of dust fluxes and the first dust flux measurements from the central Sahara are presented and compared with a parameterization by Kok [2011a]. High frequency measurements of dust size distribution were obtained from 0.16-300 μm diameter and eddy covariance fluxes were derived. This is more than an order of magnitude larger size range than previous flux estimates. Links to surface emission are provided by analysis of particle drift velocities. Number flux is described by a -2 power law between 1 and 144 μm diameter, significantly larger than the 12 μm upper limit suggested by Kok [2011a]. For small particles, the deviation from a power law varies with terrain type and the large size cut-off is correlated with atmospheric vertical turbulent kinetic energy, suggesting control by vertical transport rather than emission processes. The measured mass flux mode is in the range 30-100 μm. The turbulent scales important for dust flux are from 0.1 km to 1-10 km. The upper scale increases during the morning as boundary layer depth and eddy size increase. All locations where large dust fluxes were measured had large topographical variations. These features are often linked with highly erodible surface features, such as wadis or dunes. We also hypothesize that upslope flow and flow separation over such features enhance the dust flux by transporting large particles out of the saltation layer. The tendency to locate surface flux measurements in open, flat terrain means these favored dust sources have been neglected in previous studies.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a crude Trypanosoma cruzi antigen (TCA) and its partially purified subfractions TCF1, TCF2 on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of normal donors and chagasic patients. TCFI and TCF2 stimulated cells from normal donors and chagasic patients in association with a significant production of interleukin (IL)-10. Only PBMC from chagasic patients multiplied after incubation with TCA and released mainly interferon-y but also IL-10. Neither the production of IL-2 and IL-4 nor CD4/CD8 ratios were changed after culture with antigens. These data suggest that some antigens active during the acute phase of T. cruzi infection would stimulate the production of cytokines that promote progression of infection, and the immune system can produce a desired cytokine(s) once the appropriate antigenic stimulus is used.