101. Visualization of Risk Factors and Predictive Models for Early Death of Neonatal Gastric Perforation.
- Author
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Mengying, Cui, Pengfei, Chen, Jinfeng, Hou, Yi, Wang, Wei, Liu, and Zhenhua, Guo
- Subjects
RISK assessment ,PREDICTION models ,PLATELET count ,ABDOMINAL surgery ,LOGISTIC regression analysis ,HYPERKALEMIA ,POTASSIUM ,PERINATAL death ,RETROSPECTIVE studies ,BICARBONATE ions ,DESCRIPTIVE statistics ,PEDIATRICS ,ODDS ratio ,ARTERIAL pressure ,GASTRIC diseases ,INTENSIVE care units ,VOMITING ,CONFIDENCE intervals ,ACIDOSIS ,HYPOXEMIA ,SENSITIVITY & specificity (Statistics) ,CHILDREN - Abstract
A retrospective analysis was performed from May 2003 to October 2021 at our hospital. One hundred and eleven neonates diagnosed with gastric perforation were categorized into non-survivor and survivor groups based on prognosis. The mortality rate was 23.42%. Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing the early neonatal death. The non-survivor groups showed more abdominal distension, vomiting, hypoxia, acidosis, hyperkalemia, and coagulation abnormalities. Serum potassium concentration (odds ratio [OR] 2.148, P =.043) was an independent risk factor; however, arterial partial pressure of oxygen (OR 0.977, P =.024), bicarbonate (OR 0.779, P =.023), and platelet count (OR 0.986, P =.014) had protective effects on neonatal death. Based on this, a visualized nomogram prediction model was constructed, patients who had a nomogram score of more than 163.787 was considered to have high risks of mortality, the area under the curve of this was up to 0.828 (95% confidence interval [0.733, 0.923]), the sensitivity was 80.0%, and the specificity was 76.9%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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