Search

MYRIAD-EU has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003276.

This report is the first output of Work Package 1: Diagnosis of the MYRIAD-EU project: Handbook of Multi-hazard, Multi-Risk Definitions and Concepts. The aim of the task was to (i) acknowledge the differences and promote consistency in understanding across subsequent work packages in the MYRIAD-EU project, (ii) improve the accessibility of our work to a broad array of stakeholders and (iii) strengthen consensus across the hazard and risk community through a common understanding of multi-hazard, multi-risk terminology and concepts. The work encompassed a mixed-methods approach, including internal consultations and data-generating exercises; literature reviews; external stakeholder engagement; adopting and building on a rich existing body of established glossaries. 140 terms are included in the glossary, 102 related to multi-hazard, multi-risk, disaster risk management and an additional 38 due to their relevance to the project, acknowledging the need for a common understanding amongst an interdisciplinary project consortium. We also include extended definitions related to concepts particularly of relevance to this project deliverable, including ‘multi-hazard’, ‘hazard interrelationships’, ‘multi-risk’ and ‘direct and indirect loss and risk’. Underpinned by a literature review and internal consultation, we include a specific section on indicators, how these might be applied within a multi-hazard and multi-risk context, and how existing indicators could be adapted to consider multi-risk management. We emphasise that there are a number of established glossaries that the project (and risk community) should make use of to strengthen the impact of the work we do, noting in our literature review a tendency in papers and reports to define words afresh. We conclude the report with a selection of key observations, including terminology matters – for all aspects of disaster risk management, for example communication, data collection, measuring progress and reporting against Sendai Framework targets. At the same time, we discuss when is it helpful to include ‘multi-‘ as a prefix, questioning whether part of the paradigm shift needed to successfully address complex challenges facing an interconnected world is through inherently seeing vulnerability, exposure and disaster risk through the lens of multiple, interrelated hazards. We emphasise that there is likely to be an evolution of the terminology throughout the project lifetime as terms are emerge or shift as the project evolves. Finally, we propose a roadmap for developing and testing draft multi-risk indicators in MYRIAD-EU. The WP1 team would like to acknowledge all the contributions of the consortium on this task and the feedback from the External Advisory Board, in particular the chair of the board Virginia Murray, Head of Global Disaster Risk Reduction at the UK Health Security Agency, and the contribution of Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Head of Global Risk Management and Reporting at UNDRR, for her reflections on the findings of this work.

Climate change and rapid expansion of urban areas are expected to increase pluvial flood hazard and risk in the near future, and particularly so in large developed areas and cities. Therefore, large-scale and high-resolution pluvial flood hazard mapping is required to identify hotspots where mitigation measures may be applied to reduce flood risk. Depressions or low points in urban areas where runoff volumes can be stored are prone to pluvial flooding. The standard approach based on estimating synthetic design hyetographs assumes, in a given depression, that the T-year design storm generates the T-year pluvial flood. In addition, urban areas usually include several depressions even linked or nested that would require distinct design hyetographs instead of using a unique synthetic design storm. In this paper, a stochastic methodology is proposed to address the limitations of this standard approach, developing large-scale ∼ 2 m-resolution pluvial flood hazard maps in urban areas with multiple depressions. The authors present an application of the proposed approach to the city of Pamplona in Spain (68.26 km2). The Safer_RAIN fast-processing algorithm based on digital elevation models (DEMs) is compared with the IBER 2D hydrodynamic model in four real storms by using 10-min precipitation fields. Precipitation recorded at rainfall-gauging stations was merged with continuous fields obtained from a meteorological radar station. Given the hydrostatic limitations of Safer_RAIN, the benchmarking results are adequate in terms of water depths in depressions. A long set of 10 000 synthetic storms that maintain the statistical properties of observations in Pamplona is generated. Safer_RAIN is used to simulate runoff response, and filling and spilling processes, in depressions for the 10 000 synthetic storms, obtaining the probability distribution of water depths in each cell. Maps of pluvial flood hazards are developed in the Pamplona metropolitan area for 10 return periods in the range from two to 500 years from such pixel-based series of simulated water depths. Bivariate return-period curves are estimated in a set of cells, showing that several storms can generate a given T-year pluvial flood with an increasing precipitation with storm duration that depends on the draining catchment soil characteristics. The methodology proposed is useful to develop maps of pluvial flood hazards in large multi-depression urban areas in reasonable computation times, identifying the main pluvial flood hotspots.

Probabilities of future climate states can be estimated by fitting distributions to the members of an ensemble of climate model projections. The change in the ensemble mean can be used as an estimate of the change in the mean of the real climate. However, the level of sampling uncertainty around the change in the ensemble mean varies from case to case and in some cases is large. We compare two model-averaging methods that take the uncertainty in the change in the ensemble mean into account in the distribution fitting process. They both involve fitting distributions to the ensemble using an uncertainty-adjusted value for the ensemble mean in an attempt to increase predictive skill relative to using the unadjusted ensemble mean. We use the two methods to make projections of future rainfall based on a large data set of high-resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations for different seasons, rainfall variables, representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and points in time. Cross-validation within the ensemble using both point and probabilistic validation methods shows that in most cases predictions based on the adjusted ensemble means show higher potential accuracy than those based on the unadjusted ensemble mean. They also perform better than predictions based on conventional Akaike model averaging and statistical testing. The adjustments to the ensemble mean vary continuously between situations that are statistically significant and those that are not. Of the two methods we test, one is very simple, and the other is more complex and involves averaging using a Bayesian posterior. The simpler method performs nearly as well as the more complex method.

Introduction Although ticagrelor and prasugrel remain the standard antiplatelet treatments in acute coronary syndrome (ACS), numerous patients still present with indications for clopidogrel use. Aim We aimed to assess the levels of clopidogrel active metabolite and to evaluate the effect of the drug on platelet inhibition in patients with ACS as compared with those with stable coronary disease. Patients were assessed for the presence of the most common genetic polymorphisms that reduce the absorption (ABCB1) and activation (CYP2C19*2 and CYP2C19*3) of clopidogrel to exclude the effect of genetic variability on drug concentrations and activity. Material and methods This single-center, open-label, prospective study included 199 patients hospitalized due to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-STEMI (NSTEMI) in Killip class I-III, who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention. The control group included 22 patients with stable coronary artery disease. Results The mean (SD) levels of active clopidogrel were 17.1 (12.3) ng/ml in controls and 16.4 (12.0) ng/ml in the whole study group (p < 0.68). No differences were noted in clopidogrel levels between patients with STEMI and NSTEMI (mean (SD), 17.6 (2.3) ng/ml and 15.1 (11.5) ng/ml; p < 0.45) or between STEMI and NSTEMI groups and controls (p < 0.38 and p < 0.61, respectively). No effect of ABCB1 or CYP2C19 polymorphism was observed in the study subgroups. Conclusions We concluded that ACS does not affect the levels of clopidogrel active metabolite or platelet inhibition in patients in Killip class I-III with or without CYP2C19 or ABCB1 gene polymorphisms.

Background Ticagrelor and prasugrel are widely used as antiplatelet therapy after coronary angioplasty. However, there is a group of patients with indications for clopidogrel treatment. This population includes patients with chronic or acute coronary syndrome who are treated invasively and have contraindications to the use of novel antiplatelet drugs due to antithrombotic treatment (particularly with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants). A wide range of generic forms of clopidogrel are available on the market. However, it is unclear whether they are as effective as the originator drug. Objectives In the current study, we aimed to assess the concentrations of the active metabolite of clopidogrel and its effect on platelet aggregation inhibition in patients receiving the originator drug in comparison with those receiving generic clopidogrel. Material and methods We enrolled 22 healthy individuals without polymorphisms in the ABCB1 gene and the allele variants CYPC19*2 and CYPC19*3. All participants received a loading dose of clopidogrel (600 mg), followed by a maintenance dose of 75 mg for the next 3 days. On day 3, blood samples were obtained 1 h after drug administration to assess active metabolite concentrations using liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. In each participant, platelet aggregation was assessed with light transmission aggregometry after 5-μmol/L and 10-μmol/L adenosine diphosphate (ADP) stimulation. Assays were performed for the originator clopidogrel and 2 different generic groups. Results The mean ± standard deviation (SD) concentrations of active clopidogrel did not differ between the originator drug and 2 generic products with clopidogrel (12.7±5 pg/μL compared to 13.0 ±4 pg/μL compared to 14.4 ±4 pg/μL). Platelet aggregation inhibition after stimulation with 5 μmol/L and 10 μmol/L ADP was similar for all preparations. Conclusions In comparison with original clopidogrel, the use of its generic form does not affect the blood concentrations of the active metabolite or its antiplatelet effect.

Pluvial flooding is a major concern in urban environments with limited or temporarily reduced efficiency of surface drainage. Climate change, land use change, and increased exposure in hazard prone areas play a role in increasing pluvial flood risks. We describe a methodology for rapid probabilistic pluvial flood hazard mapping and risk assessments in urban environments developed for the Copernicus Climate Change Service “Pluvial Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas” demonstrator project for large computational domains. The methodology is designed to be flexible and robust enough to be adapted to other cities in Europe and elsewhere, and is composed of three main steps: (i) computation of the intensity–frequency relationship to express the depth of extreme hourly rainfall events at the urban scale; (ii) characterization of the pluvial flood hazard by means of raster-based flood modeling, and; (iii) estimation of the direct tangible damages at the building level for residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. Methods are tested for 20 cities across Europe and considering two infiltration rate scenarios. Spatial-explicit results at the urban-scale highlight the neighborhoods and sub-urban areas more adversely affected in terms of direct tangible damage to buildings and assets. Probabilistic risk assessment results indicate that Brussels, Antwerp, and London are the cities with higher expected annual damages per built-up area among the 20 cities considered in this study. These results can be useful for supporting the implementation of the Sendai Framework for DRR 2015–2030, for developing multi-hazard risk assessments, and for supporting the development of national climate change adaptation plans.

BackgroundDisturbances in the levels of serum constituents occurring in chronic renal diseases can be reflected in the saliva composition. The aim of this study was to assess some selected salivary components in children suffering from idiopathic steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (iNS).MethodsA case–control study was performed on iNS and healthy participants. In unstimulated mixed saliva, pH, buffer capacity, total protein, α-amylase, peroxidase, calcium, magnesium, inorganic phosphate, fluoride, urea, uric acid and salivary flow rate were measured. Oral condition was assessed using dmft, DMFT, API and GI indices, usage of fluoride specimens and frequency of tooth brushing. Statistical analysis was performed by Shapiro–Wilk, Brown-Forsythe, Student’s t, ANOVA, Tukey’s and Pearson’s chi-square tests, Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlations, logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.ResultsThe study involved 94 participants of both genders aged 4–17 (47 cases in relapse or remission phase of iNS and 47 controls) who were treated in the clinic of pediatric nephrology or outpatient dental clinic. Neither group differed in the number of caries-affected primary and permanent teeth, gingival condition or use of fluoride specimens. The iNS group presented lower levels of magnesium (0.41 ± 0.34 vs. 0.60 ± 0.38 mg/dL, P ConclusionsLevels of urea, uric acid, magnesium and fluoride in saliva can be associated with the course of iNS. Salivary levels of peroxidase and magnesium can be related to the phase of the disease. However, the measurements of these parameters cannot be useful as a noninvasive tool in diagnosing iNS and the phase of the disease.

Background Platelets are key players in hemostasis. These blood cells contain different types of granules. Recently, there has been a growing interest in the role of inorganic polyphosphate (polyP) structures stored in dense granules of platelets and secreted during platelet activation. Objectives To measure platelet polyP levels in patients with thrombocytopenia and thrombocythemia, and to examine the relationship of this indicator with platelet aggregation. Material and methods The study included 36 patients with hematological disorders (26 with primary chronic thrombocytopenia and 10 with essential thrombocythemia (ET)) and 40 healthy subjects. Platelet reactivity was measured using whole blood impedance aggregometry. The polyP levels were isolated from lysed platelets, which were obtained from citrated platelet-rich plasma. The procedure included inactivating endogenous phosphatases, removing phosphate units derived from DNA and proteins, and finally hydrolyzing them into monophosphate units. A colorimetric assay using malachite green and ammonium molybdate was performed in order to quantify polyP levels. Results The polyP concentrations were significantly higher in the patients with thrombocytopenia than in the patients with thrombocythemia or the controls. The polyP level was not correlated with the level of aggregation. Conclusions The higher polyP levels observed in the patients with low platelet counts may indicate the existence of a compensatory mechanism that prevents excessive bleeding in such patients. Our study provides evidence of an essential role of polyP in platelet function and the coagulation process.

The Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic has caused changes in all areas of human life. The field of law is no exception to this list. In particular, the issues of conducting other people’s affairs without a power of attorney have become especially relevant, as social distancing and restrictions on social activity have led to a significant increase in the practical need for the application of this legal institution. The significance of this study is also important in connection with the comparative analysis of the normative aspect and the practical measurement of the application of the institute of conducting other people’s affairs without a power of attorney in Ukraine and Poland. These two countries are comparable in territory, number of citizens, legal tradition, but Poland has become member of the European Union, while Ukraine has remained on the sidelines of European civilization. The dialectical method, the method of comparative analysis and system analysis were chosen as the methodological basis of the research. The authors of the article concluded that institute of conducting other people’s affairs without a power of attorney is characterized by an increased level of social utility. In such cases, the one who protects the interests of others without a power of attorney, as a rule, acts not only in the interests of the individual but also in the interests of the society. Thus, it helps to protect single people, the elderly ones, disabled individuals and other groups which are socially unprotected and thus prevent the pandemic spread.

Ecosystems and ecosystem services are key to helping achieve reduction in disaster risk, sustainable development, and climate change adaptation, and this is now recognized by major international framework agreements (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2014; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015-2030). However, there is limited knowledge about the cost efficiency and socio-economic equity outcomes of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) compared to traditional engineered strategies.In this study we developed a global database of more than 130 peer-reviewed studies, published between 2000 and 2020, that perform economic evaluations of NbS for Ecosystem-based Climate Adaptation (EbA) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). Using meta-analysis techniques, we assess the existing scientific knowledge on the economic viability and performance of NbS for Eco-DRR and EbA, cataloguing outcomes both in terms of degree of economic efficiency and social equity. Our analysis includes multiple dimensions: geographic distribution of the published studies, types of ecosystems and ecosystem services evaluated, hazards and climate impacts analyzed, and economic methodologies used to perform economic efficiency evaluations (e.g., cost benefit analysis, stated/revealed preferences evaluation methods).This study builds on a recent global assessment (Sudmeier-Rieux et al, 2021) that performs the first systematic review of Eco-DRR peer-reviewed studies across all disciplines. Their results show robustness of evidence and level of agreement on the role of ecosystems in attenuating 30 types of hazards, based on the assessment methodology established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our meta-analysis expands the 2021 review by evaluating the economic benefits associated with Eco-DRR and NbA approaches; by examining cost efficiency of Eco-DRR and NbA interventions compared to traditional engineering solutions; by performing equity assessments of the outcomes; and by studying how the NbS interventions reviewed contributed to the sustainable development goals (SDGs).REFERENCE:Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Arce-Mojica,T., Boehmer, H.J., Doswald, N., Emerton, L., Friess, D.A., Galvin, S., Hagenlocher, M., James, H., Laban, P., Lacambra, C., Lange, W., McAdoo, B.G., Moos, C., Mysiak, J., Narvaez, L., Nehren, U., Peduzzi, P1., Renaud, F.G., Sandholz, S., Schreyers, L., Sebesvari, Z., Tom, T., Triyanti, A., van Eijk, P., van Staveren, M., Vicarelli, M., Walz, Y. "Scientific evidence for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction." Nature Sustainability (2021): 1-8.

The economic loss associated with natural hazards has drastically increased over the past decades, reaching over $210 billion dollars worldwide in 2020. The explication of regional-scale climate change effects with the tendency to exacerbate local climate criticalities has long jeopardized disaster resilience and the coping capacity of many communities. There is a lack of a robust operational linkage between the pre-disaster and post-disaster segments when a disaster occurs. This hampers an effective emergency response often leading to delayed humanitarian intervention and unplanned evacuations. Moreover, the great amount of openly available impact information on past events is commonly discarded and the forecast potential which the data yields has yet to be fully explored. In this context, the Impact-based Forecasting (IbF) approach aims to interconnect pre-emptive planning for early action with post-disaster impacts while taking advantage of historical data. The underlying principle of IbF is that the magnitude of an event is translated to site-specific impact information. Therefore, a paradigm shift from the conventional magnitude-likelihood relationship to impact-likelihood is proposed. This research develops a method to fully exploit the potential of IbF while overcoming the typical site-specificity of emergency response through remote sensing and automation. While the IbF framework allows for a multi-hazard approach, here we present a method targeting the ex-ante impact assessment of riverine floods. The analysis consists of two main components: i) the delineation of the flood extent from Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and ii) the definition of the event impact on the population, land and built environment. The IbF impact-likelihood relationship is ultimately derived by matching the two components for a historical event series. A fully automated Google Earth Engine algorithm for flood extent mapping with a 10 m spatial resolution has been developed to detect floodwater with a single-scene classification based on an automated thresholding method. The flood magnitude is then matched with open-access geodata such as human settlements, population density, land cover and infrastructure from the OpenStreetMap catalogue to generate the impact assessment. Once trained on several site or region specific past events, it can automatically forecast the impact associated with a given event magnitude. Here we apply the technique to three case studies including the flooding associated with the Tropical Cyclone Idai, which made landfall in Mozambique in March 2019 causing over 1200 fatalities and $2 billion worth of damage. The performance of the flood mapping algorithm has been evaluated as satisfactory for the impact application and further validation at two additional sites is ongoing. Therefore, local triggers can be set to ensure a valuable temporal window to promptly plan and estimate the cost of intervention on the field. This work is a first step to providing a consistent and regionally transferable disaster preparedness tool that allows for multi-hazard impact forecasts.