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This study characterized arrest, incarceration, and risk factors for incident incarceration among transgender women (TW) in the northeastern and southern United States. During semiannual study visits over 24 months in a multicenter cohort study, TW completed HIV testing and self-administered surveys. In total, 1571 TW completed baseline survey; 1,312 HIV-negative TW enrolled in the cohort and contributed 2134.3 personyears to the analysis. At baseline, 37% had been arrested and 21% had been incarcerated. Incident incarceration was 23.4 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.9-29.9). Sex work was significantly associated with baseline and incident incarceration (p < .01). A history of incarceration at enrollment was the strongest predictor of incident incarceration (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.99; 95% CI: 3.43-14.24). Living in the South (aOR 2.69, 95% CI: 1.22-5.93), income below the federal poverty level (aOR 2.65 95% CI: 3.43-14.24), and having a recent partner who had been incarcerated (aOR 2.62, 95% CI: 1.20-5.69) also increased the odds of incident incarceration in multivariable modeling. Structural interventions to reduce poverty and decriminalize sex work have the potential to reduce incarceration rates among TW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning. Methods We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results. Results We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality. Conclusions Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Racial/ethnic disparities during the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic led to differences in COVID-19 testing and adverse outcomes. We examine differences in testing and adverse outcomes by race/ethnicity and sex across a geographically diverse and system-based COVID-19 cohort collaboration. Methods: Observational study among adults (≥18 years) within six US cohorts from March 1, 2020 to August 31, 2020 using data from electronic health record and patient reporting. Race/ethnicity and sex as risk factors were primary exposures, with health system type (integrated health system, academic health system, or interval cohort) as secondary. Proportions measured SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity; attributed hospitalization and death related to COVID-19. Relative risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals quantified associations between exposures and main outcomes. Results: 5,958,908 patients were included. Hispanic patients had the highest proportions of SARS-CoV-2 testing (16%) and positivity (18%), while Asian/Pacific Islander patients had the lowest portions tested (11%) and White patients had the lowest positivity rates (5%). Men had a lower likelihood of testing (RR = 0.90 [0.89–0.90]) and a higher positivity risk (RR = 1.16 [1.14–1.18]) compared to women. Black patients were more likely to have COVID-19-related hospitalizations (RR = 1.36 [1.28–1.44]) and death (RR = 1.17 [1.03–1.32]) compared with White patients. Men were more likely to be hospitalized (RR = 1.30 [1.16–1.22]) or die (RR = 1.70 [1.53–1.89]) compared to women. These racial/ethnic and sex differences were reflected in both health system types. Conclusions: This study supports evidence of disparities by race/ethnicity and sex during the COVID-19 pandemic that persisted even in healthcare settings with reduced barriers to accessing care. Further research is needed to understand and prevent the drivers that resulted in higher burdens of morbidity among certain Black patients and men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retention in care (RIC) reduces HIV transmission and associated morbidity and mortality. We examined whether delivery of comprehensive services influenced individual RIC within the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) network. We collected site data through IeDEA assessments 1.0 (2000–2009) and 2.0 (2010–2016). Each site received a comprehensiveness score for service availability (1 = present, 0 = absent), with tallies ranging from 0 to 7. We obtained individual-level cohort data for adults with at least one visit from 2000 to 2016 at sites responding to either assessment. Person-time was recorded annually, with RIC defined as completing two visits at least 90 days apart in each calendar year. Multivariable modified Poisson regression clustered by site yielded risk ratios and predicted probabilities for individual RIC by comprehensiveness. Among 347,060 individuals in care at 122 sites with 1,619,558 person-years of follow-up, 69.8% of person-time was retained in care, varying by region from 53.8% (Asia-Pacific) to 82.7% (East Africa); RIC improved by about 2% per year from 2000 to 2016 (p = 0.012). Every site provided CD4+ count testing, and >90% of individuals received care at sites that provided combination antiretroviral therapy adherence measures, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, tuberculosis screening, HIV-related prevention, and community tracing services. In adjusted models, individuals at sites with more comprehensive services had higher probabilities of RIC (0.71, 0.74, and 0.83 for scores 5, 6, and 7, respectively; p = 0.019). Within IeDEA, greater site-level comprehensiveness of services was associated with improved individual RIC. Much work remains in exploring this relationship, which may inform HIV clinical practice and health systems planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Despite effective antiretroviral therapy, rates of end‐stage liver disease (ESLD) remain high. It is not clear whether contemporary antiretrovirals contribute to the risk of ESLD. Methods: We included patients from cohorts with validated ESLD data in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Patients had to initiate antiretroviral therapy after 1 January 2004 with a nucleos(t)ide backbone of either abacavir/lamivudine or tenofovir/emtricitabine and a contemporary third (anchor) drug. Patients were followed until a first ESLD event, death, end of a cohort's ESLD validation period, loss to follow‐up or 31 December 2015. We estimated associations between cumulative exposure to each drug and ESLD using a hierarchical Bayesian survival model with weakly informative prior distributions. Results: Among 10 564 patients included from 12 cohorts, 62 had an ESLD event. Of the nine anchor drugs, boosted protease inhibitors atazanavir and darunavir had the strongest signals for ESLD, with increasing hazard ratios (HR) and narrowing credible intervals (CrI), from a prior HR of 1.5 (95% CrI 0.32–7.1) per 5 year's exposure to posterior HRs respectively of 1.8 (95% CrI 0.82–3.9) and 2.0 (95% CrI 0.86–4.7). Both backbones and efavirenz showed no signal. Hepatitis C coinfection was the most important covariate risk factor (HR 4.4, 95% CrI 2.6–7.0). Conclusions: While contemporary antiretrovirals pose less risk for ESLD than hepatitis coinfection, atazanavir and darunavir had a toxicity signal. We show how hierarchical Bayesian modelling can be used to detect toxicity signals in cohort event monitoring data even with complex treatments and few events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of this study was to describe the association of individual- level characteristics (sex, race/ethnicity, birth weight, maternal education) with child BMI within each US Census region and variation in child BMI by region. Methods: This study used pooled data from 25 prospective cohort studies. Region of residence (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) was based on residential zip codes. Age- and sex- specific BMI z scores were the outcome. Results: The final sample included 14,313 children with 85,428 BMI measurements, 49% female and 51% non- Hispanic White. Males had a lower average BMI z score compared with females in the Midwest (β = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.19 to -0.05) and West (β = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.20 to -0.04). Compared with non- Hispanic White children, BMI z score was generally higher among children who were Hispanic and Black but not across all regions. Compared with the Northeast, average BMI z score was significantly higher in the Midwest (β = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.14) and lower in the South (β = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.16 to -0.08) and West (β = -0.14, 95% CI: -0.19 to -0.09) after adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and birth weight. Conclusions: Region of residence was associated with child BMI z scores, even after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. Understanding regional influences can inform targeted efforts to mitigate BMI- related disparities among children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)–based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with greater weight gain among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), though metabolic consequences, such as diabetes mellitus (DM), are unclear. We examined the impact of initial cART regimen and weight on incident DM in a large North American HIV cohort (NA-ACCORD). Methods cART-naive adults (≥18 years) initiating INSTI-, protease inhibitor (PI)–, or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)–based regimens from January 2007 through December 2017 who had weight measured 12 (±6) months after treatment initiation contributed time until clinical DM, virologic failure, cART regimen switch, administrative close, death, or loss to follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident DM by cART class. Mediation analyses, with 12-month weight as mediator, similarly adjusted for all covariates. Results Among 22 884 eligible individuals, 47% started NNRTI-, 30% PI-, and 23% INSTI-based cART with median follow-up of 3.0, 2.3, and 1.6 years, respectively. Overall, 722 (3%) developed DM. Persons starting INSTIs vs NNRTIs had incident DM risk (HR, 1.17 [95% CI,.92–1.48]), similar to PI vs NNRTI initiators (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.07–1.51]). This effect was most pronounced for raltegravir (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.06–1.91]) vs NNRTI initiators. The INSTI–DM association was attenuated (HR, 1.03 [95% CI,.71–1.49] vs NNRTIs) when accounting for 12-month weight. Conclusions Initiating first cART regimens with INSTIs or PIs vs NNRTIs may confer greater risk of DM, likely mediated through weight gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 2005 to 2018, among 32013 adults with human immunodeficiency virus entering care, median time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) prescription declined from 69 to 6 days, CD4 count at entry into care increased from 300 to 362 cells/μL, and CD4 count at ART prescription increased from 160 to 364 cells/μL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Improved access to effective antiretroviral therapy has meant that people living with HIV (PLHIV) are surviving to older ages. However, PLHIV may be ageing differently to HIV-negative individuals, with dissimilar burdens of non-communicable diseases, such as hypertension. While some observational studies have reported a higher risk of prevalent hypertension among PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals, others have found a reduced burden. To clarify the relationship between HIV and hypertension, we identified observational studies and pooled their results to assess whether there is a difference in hypertension risk by HIV status. Methods: We performed a global systematic review and meta-analysis of published cross-sectional studies that examined hypertension risk by HIV status among adults aged > 15 (PROSPERO: CRD42019151359). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health and Cochrane CENTRAL to August 23, 2020, and checked reference lists of included articles. Our main outcome was the risk ratio for prevalent hypertension in PLHIV compared to HIV-negative individuals. Summary estimates were pooled with a random effects model and meta-regression explored whether any difference was associated with study-level factors. Results: Of 21,527 identified studies, 59 were eligible (11,101,581 participants). Crude global hypertension risk was lower among PLHIV than HIV-negative individuals (risk ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.85–0.96), although heterogeneity between studies was high (I2 = 97%, p < 0.0001). The relationship varied by continent, with risk higher among PLHIV in North America (1.12, 1.02–1.23) and lower among PLHIV in Africa (0.75, 0.68–0.83) and Asia (0.77, 0.63–0.95). Meta-regression revealed strong evidence of a difference in risk ratios when comparing North American and European studies to African ones (North America 1.45, 1.21–1.74; Europe 1.20, 1.03–1.40). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the relationship between HIV status and prevalent hypertension differs by region. The results highlight the need to tailor hypertension prevention and care to local contexts and underscore the importance of rapidly optimising integration of services for HIV and hypertension in the worst affected regions. The role of different risk factors for hypertension in driving context-specific trends remains unclear, so development of further cohorts of PLHIV and HIV-negative controls focused on this would also be valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The third of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90‐90‐90 targets is to achieve a 90% rate of viral suppression (HIV viral load <1000 HIV‐1 RNA copies/ml) in patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) by 2020. However, some countries use different thresholds when reporting viral suppression, and there is thus a need for an adjustment to standardize estimates to the <1000 threshold. We aim to propose such an adjustment, to support consistent monitoring of progress towards the "third 90" target. Methods: We considered three possible distributions for viral loads in ART patients: Weibull, Pareto and reverse Weibull (imposing an upper limit but no lower limit on the log scale). The models were fitted to data on viral load distributions in ART patients in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration (representing seven global regions) and the ART Cohort Collaboration (representing Europe), using separate random effects models for adults and children. The models were validated using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) HIV drug resistance report and the Brazilian national ART programme. Results: Models were calibrated using 921,157 adult and 37,431 paediatric viral load measurements, over 2010–2019. The Pareto and reverse Weibull models provided the best fits to the data, but for all models, the "shape" parameters for the viral load distributions differed significantly between regions. The Weibull model performed best in the validation against the WHO drug resistance survey data, while the Pareto model produced uncertainty ranges that were too narrow, relative to the validation data. Based on these analyses, we recommend using the reverse Weibull model. For example, if a country reports an 80% rate of viral suppression at <200 copies/ml, this model estimates the proportion virally suppressed at <1000 copies/ml is 88.3% (0.800.56), with uncertainty range 85.5–90.6% (0.800.70–0.800.44). Conclusions: Estimates of viral suppression can change substantially depending on the threshold used in defining viral suppression. It is, therefore, important that viral suppression rates are standardized to the same threshold for the purpose of assessing progress towards UNAIDS targets. We have proposed a simple adjustment that allows this, and this has been incorporated into UNAIDS modelling software. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]