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Background: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies provide essential evidence on waning vaccine-derived immunity, a major threat to pertussis control. We evaluated how study design affects estimates by comparing 2 case-control studies conducted in Ontario, Canada., Methods: We compared results from a test-negative design (TND) with a frequency-matched design (FMD) case-control study using pertussis cases from 2005-2015. In the first study, we identified test-negative controls from the public health laboratory that diagnosed cases and, in the second, randomly selected controls from patients attending the same physicians that reported cases, frequency matched on age and year. We compared characteristics of cases and controls using standardized differences., Results: In both designs, VE estimates for the early years postimmunization were consistent with clinical trials (TND, 84%; FMD, 89% at 1-3 years postvaccination) but diverged as time since last vaccination increased (TND, 41%; FMD, 74% by 8 years postvaccination). Overall, we observed lower VE and faster waning in the TND than the FMD. In the TND but not FMD, controls differed from cases in important confounders, being younger, having more comorbidities, and higher healthcare use. Differences between the controls of each design were greater than differences between cases. TND controls were more likely to be unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated than FMD controls (P < .001)., Conclusions: The FMD adjusted better for healthcare-seeking behavior than the TND. Duration of protection from pertussis vaccines is unclear because estimates vary by study design. Caution should be exercised by experts, researchers, and decision makers when evaluating evidence on optimal timing of boosters., (Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Public Health Ontario, 2020.)

Background: Pertussis remains poorly controlled relative to other diseases targeted by childhood vaccination programs. We combined estimates from four population-based studies of pertussis vaccine effectiveness (VE) in three Canadian provinces using a meta-analytic approach to improve precision and explore regional variation in VE and durability of protection., Methods: Studies were conducted in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario over periods ranging from 1996 to 2015. Adjusted log odds ratios (OR; VE = 100*[1-OR]) of the effect of vaccination on pertussis risk were estimated by time since last vaccination in each study and pooled using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models. We used the I 2 statistic to estimate between-study heterogeneity and assessed methodological and clinical heterogeneity through subgroup analyses of study design and age., Results: Data on 3,270 pertussis cases and 23,863 controls were available. Pertussis VE declined from 86% (95% CI 79%-90%, I 2  = 81.5%) at < 1 year since last vaccination to 51% (11%-74%, I 2  = 80.9%) by ≥ 8 years. Effect estimates were the most heterogeneous in the least and most elapsed time periods since last vaccine dose. This was attributable mostly to variation between provinces in the distribution of age groups and number of vaccine doses received within time periods, as well as study design and small numbers in the most elapsed time period., Interpretation: Consistent trends of decreasing pertussis VE with increasing time since last vaccination across three Canadian provinces indicate the need for immunization schedules and vaccine development to optimize protection for all individuals, especially for adolescents and young adults at greatest risk of infection., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: CHR has received an unrestricted research grant from Pfizer for an unrelated study. SMM has received unrestricted research grants from Merck, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi Pasteur, Pfizer and Roche-Assurex for unrelated studies, as well as fees as an advisory board member for Sanofi Pasteur., (Crown Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objectives: Maternal immunization with tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) is routinely recommended in many countries as a strategy to protect young infants against severe pertussis infection; few studies have assessed whether prenatal exposure to the vaccine is associated with any longer-term adverse health effects in children. We evaluated the long-term safety of exposure to Tdap vaccination during pregnancy., Methods: Population-based retrospective cohort study conducted in Ontario, Canada using multiple linked province-wide health administrative databases. All live births between April 2012 and March 2017 were included, and children were followed for up to 6 years to ascertain study outcomes. Children exposed to prenatal Tdap were propensity score matched to unexposed children at a 1:5 ratio. Tdap vaccination during pregnancy was ascertained by using vaccine-specific fee codes. Immune-related (infectious diseases, asthma) and nonimmune-related (neoplasm, sensory disorders) outcomes and a nonspecific morbidity outcome (urgent or inpatient health service use) were evaluated from birth to end of follow-up., Results: Of 625 643 live births, 12 045 (1.9%) were exposed to Tdap in utero. There were no significant increased risks of adverse childhood outcomes and prenatal Tdap exposure; however, we observed inverse associations (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval]) with upper respiratory infections (0.94 [0.90-0.99]), gastrointestinal infections (0.85 [0.79-0.91]), and urgent and inpatient health service use (0.93 [0.91-0.96])., Conclusions: Exposure to Tdap vaccination in pregnancy was not associated with any increased risk of adverse health outcomes in early childhood, supporting the long-term safety of Tdap administration in pregnancy., Competing Interests: POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST: Dr Halperin’s institution received grants from GlaxoSmithKline and he is a member of ad-hoc advisory committees for GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi Pasteur (unrelated to this study). Dr Sadarangani has been an investigator on projects (unrelated to this study) funded by Pfizer, Merck, Seqirus, VBI Vaccines, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi and Pasteur. All funds have been paid to his institute, and he has not received any personal payments; the other authors have indicated they have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2021 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.)

Background: Previous work documented the beneficial association between internet use and improved cognition, functional capacity, and less cognitive decline among people in late adulthood. This work focused on potential mechanisms of such an association: knowledge on Alzheimer disease (AD) and preventive behaviors related to AD., Objective: The aim of this study was to examine prospective associations of internet use and perceived computer skills with knowledge on AD and preventive behaviors related to AD., Methods: The sample included 1232 older adults (mean age 71.12 [SD 9.07]) drawn from the Israeli branch of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE-Israel). The sample is representative of Israeli households of adults aged 50 or older and their spouses. Data analyzed were collected in person during 2015 (Wave 6), and in a drop-off questionnaire following the in-person 2017 data collection (Wave 7)., Results: Although both internet use and perceived computer skills were prospectively associated with knowledge and behaviors related to AD in bivariate analyses, after controlling for sociodemographics, only internet use was associated with more such knowledge (β=.13, P<.001) and behaviors (β=.22, P<.001)., Conclusions: Internet use emerged as a prospective predictor of protective factors against AD. Policymakers should advance digital engagement so as to enhance knowledge on AD and preventive behaviors among older adults., (©Efrat Neter, Svetlana Chachashvili-Bolotin, Bracha Erlich, Kfir Ifrah. Originally published in JMIR Aging (https://aging.jmir.org), 30.04.2021.)

We analyzed 21 676 residual specimens from Ontario, Canada collected March-August 2020 to investigate the effect of antibody decline on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates. Testing specimens orthogonally using Abbott (anti-nucleocapsid) and Ortho (anti-spike) assays, seroprevalence estimates were 0.4%-1.4%, despite ongoing disease activity. The geometric mean concentration (GMC) of antibody-positive specimens decreased over time (P = .015), and GMC of antibody-negative specimens increased over time (P = .0018). Association between the 2 tests decreased each month (P < .001), suggesting anti-nucleocapsid antibody decline. Lowering Abbott antibody index cutoff from 1.4 to 0.7 resulted in a 16% increase in positive specimens., (© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion, 2021.)

Background: In February 2018, Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization recommended maternal vaccination with tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine during pregnancy to prevent severe pertussis infection in young infants. This study assessed the relation between maternal Tdap vaccination and obstetric and perinatal outcomes in Ontario., Methods: We performed a population-based cohort study of all births from April 2012 to March 2017 using multiple linked health administrative databases. We used Cox regression with a time-dependent exposure variable to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for preterm birth (< 37 wk), very preterm birth (< 32 wk) and stillbirth. We assessed remaining outcomes (gestational hypertension, chorioamnionitis, postpartum hemorrhage, severe postpartum hemorrhage, being small for gestational age, neonatal intensive care unit stay > 24 h, composite neonatal morbidity) using log-binomial regression to generate adjusted risk ratios (RRs). We adjusted estimates for potential confounding using propensity score weighting., Results: Of 615 213 infants (live births and stillbirths), 11 519 were exposed to Tdap vaccination in utero. There was no increased risk for preterm birth (adjusted HR 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.06), very preterm birth (adjusted HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.86-1.41), stillbirth (adjusted HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.82-1.60) or being small for gestational age (adjusted RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.90-1.02). The risks of a neonatal intensive care unit stay exceeding 24 hours (adjusted RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.88) and neonatal morbidity (adjusted RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87) were decreased. There was no association with chorioamnionitis (adjusted RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.99-1.39), postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.91-1.13) or severe postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.55-1.13), but we observed a reduced risk of gestational hypertension (adjusted RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78-0.96)., Interpretation: Our results complement evidence that maternal Tdap vaccination is not associated with adverse outcomes in mothers or infants. Ongoing evaluation in Canada is needed as maternal Tdap vaccination coverage increases in coming years., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Scott Halperin has received research grants and contracts from and has served on ad hoc advisory boards for GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi Pasteur, manufacturers of tetanus–diphtheria– acellular pertussis vaccines, unrelated to this study. Manish Sadarangani is supported by salary awards from the BC Children’s Hospital Foundation, the Canadian Child Health Clinician Scientist Program and the Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research. He has been an investigator on projects funded by Pfizer, Merck, Seqirus, VBI Vaccines, GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi Pasteur; all funds have been paid to his institute, and he has not received any personal payments. Kumanan Wilson is married to an employee of CMAJ, who was not involved with the editorial decision-making process for this article. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2021 Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

Background: The United Kingdom (UK) and Canada use the same acellular pertussis vaccine and both experienced large pertussis outbreaks in the past, occurring in the 1980s in the UK and 1990s in Canada, yet current epidemiology differs. A national outbreak with infant deaths occurred in the UK in 2012, yet outbreaks remain localized and death from pertussis rare in Canada., Aim: We explored whether past outbreaks in children may influence future risk when those children become parents., Methods: We conducted an ecological within-country birth cohort analysis in women of childbearing age of the relative risk of ever having pertussis infection by two points in time, 2002 and 2012, comparing with 1992 as the baseline. We used notified cases of pertussis in England and Wales and Canada to compare trends in relative risk. We projected forward to 2022 in Canada assuming incidence remained stable., Results: In Canada, the cumulative risk of previous pertussis was similar in 2002 and 2012 and, in both periods, was higher than in 1992. In England and Wales, the cumulative risk of pertussis fell stepwise from 1992 to 2012. Projecting forwards, the pattern of risk in Canada becomes similar to England and Wales in 2022., Conclusions: Widespread pertussis outbreaks in children may reduce the risk of pertussis in infants when those children become parents. Further research is needed to determine the mechanism. As birth cohorts that experienced outbreaks grow past childbearing age, pertussis burden in infants in Canada may increase, following trends observed in England and Wales., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Crown Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This paper investigates nonholonomic systems (the Chaplygin sleigh and the Suslov system) with periodically varying mass distribution. In these examples, the behavior of velocities is described by a system of the form dvdτ=f 2 (τ)u 2 +f 1 (τ)u+f 0 (τ),dudτ=-uv+g(τ), where the coefficients are periodic functions of time τ with the same period. A detailed analysis is made of the problem of the existence of modes of motion for which the system speeds up indefinitely (an analog of Fermi's acceleration). It is proved that, depending on the choice of coefficients, variable v has the asymptotics t 1k ,k=1,2,3. In addition, we show regions of the phase space for which the system, when the trajectories are started from them, is observed to speed up. The proof uses normal forms and averaging in a slightly unusual form since unusual form averaging is performed over a variable that is not fast.

Background: Many studies assume that the serologic correlate of protection from measles disease is 120 mIU/mL. We systematically reviewed the literature to examine the evidence supporting this correlate of protection., Methods: We searched peer-reviewed and gray literature for articles reporting a measles correlate of protection. We excluded studies focusing on special populations, infants aged <9 months, and those using animal models or nonstandard vaccines or administration routes. We extracted and synthesized data from full-text articles that met inclusion criteria., Results: We screened 14 778 articles and included 5 studies in our review. The studies reported either preexposure antibody concentrations of individuals along with a description of symptoms postexposure, or the proportion of measles cases that had preexposure antibody concentrations above a threshold of immunity specified by the authors. Some studies also described secondary antibody responses upon exposure. The variation in laboratory methods between studies made comparisons difficult. Some of the studies that assumed 120 mIU/mL as a correlate of protection identified symptomatic individuals with preexposure titers exceeding this threshold., Conclusions: Our findings underscore the scant data upon which the commonly used 120 mIU/mL measles threshold of protection is based, suggesting that further work is required to characterize the measles immunity threshold., (© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Public Health Ontario, 2019.)

Background: In settings where measles has been eliminated, vaccine-derived immunity may in theory wane more rapidly due to a lack of immune boosting by circulating measles virus. We aimed to assess whether measles vaccine effectiveness (VE) waned over time, and if so, whether differentially in measles-eliminated and measles-endemic settings., Methods: We performed a systematic literature review of studies that reported VE and time since vaccination with measles-containing vaccine (MCV). We extracted information on case definition (clinical symptoms and/or laboratory diagnosis), method of vaccination status ascertainment (medical record or vaccine registry), as well as any biases which may have arisen from cold chain issues and a lack of an age at first dose of MCV. We then used linear regression to evaluate VE as a function of age at first dose of MCV and time since MCV., Results: After screening 14,782 citations, we identified three full-text articles from measles-eliminated settings and 33 articles from measles-endemic settings. In elimination settings, two-dose VE estimates increased as age at first dose of MCV increased and decreased as time since MCV increased; however, the small number of studies available limited interpretation. In measles-endemic settings, one-dose VE increased by 1.5% (95% CI 0.5, 2.5) for every month increase in age at first dose of MCV. We found no evidence of waning VE in endemic settings., Conclusions: The paucity of data from measles-eliminated settings indicates that additional studies and approaches (such as studies using proxies including laboratory correlates of protection) are needed to answer the question of whether VE in measles-eliminated settings wanes. Age at first dose of MCV was the most important factor in determining VE. More VE studies need to be conducted in elimination settings, and standards should be developed for information collected and reported in such studies., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We conducted a systematic review to describe the frequency of mild, atypical, and asymptomatic infection among household contacts of pertussis cases and to explore the published literature for evidence of asymptomatic transmission. We included studies that obtained and tested laboratory specimens from household contacts regardless of symptom presentation and reported the proportion of cases with typical, mild/atypical, or asymptomatic infection. After screening 6789 articles, we included 26 studies. Fourteen studies reported household contacts with mild/atypical pertussis. These comprised up to 46.2% of all contacts tested. Twenty-four studies reported asymptomatic contacts with laboratory-confirmed pertussis, comprising up to 55.6% of those tested. Seven studies presented evidence consistent with asymptomatic pertussis transmission between household contacts. Our results demonstrate a high prevalence of subclinical infection in household contacts of pertussis cases, which may play a substantial role in the ongoing transmission of disease. Our review reveals a gap in our understanding of pertussis transmission., (Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Public Health Ontario, 2019.)

Background: Infants are often assumed to be immune to measles through maternal antibodies transferred during pregnancy and, in many countries, receive their first measles-containing vaccine at 12 to 15 months. Immunity may wane before this time in measles-eliminated settings, placing infants at risk for measles and complications. We investigated humoral immunity to measles in infants <12 months of age in Ontario, Canada., Methods: We selected sera collected at a tertiary pediatric hospital from infants <12 months who were born at ≥37 weeks' gestational age. We excluded infants with conditions that affect antibody levels. We selected ≤25 sera from 8 predetermined age bands and tested them for measles-neutralizing antibody using the plaque-reduction neutralization test. We calculated the proportion immune at each age band, and predictors of infant susceptibility were assessed by using multivariable logistic regression and Poisson regression., Results: Of 196 infant sera, 56% (110 of 196) were from boys, and 35% (69 of 196) were from infants with underlying medical conditions. In the first month, 20% (5 of 25) of infants had antibodies below the protective threshold, which increased to 92% (22 of 24) by 3 months. By 6 months, all infants had titers below the protective threshold. In a multivariable analysis, infant age was the strongest predictor of susceptibility (odds ratio = 2.13 for each additional month increase; 95% confidence interval: 1.52-2.97)., Conclusions: Most infants were susceptible to measles by 3 months of age in this elimination setting. Our findings inform important policy discussions relating to the timing of the first dose of measles-containing vaccine and infant postexposure prophylaxis recommendations., Competing Interests: POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The authors have indicated they have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2019 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.)

Background: Influenza causes significant annual morbidity and mortality, particularly in older adults, for whom influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is also lower. Immunizing one group (e.g., children) against influenza may indirectly protect another group (e.g., older adults) against influenza and its complications., Methods: We updated previous systematic reviews on indirect protection against influenza by searching MEDLINE and EMBASE for relevant human studies published until January 4, 2017. We abstracted and critically appraised English language publications that reported or provided information to calculate indirect VE against influenza, as a percentage, in non-institutional settings. We developed a term called 'estimated actual protection' to explore the relationship between indirect protection and the product of direct VE and relative vaccine coverage. We calculated estimated actual protection for a subset of studies that reported coverage and indirect VE for: laboratory-confirmed influenza; outpatient care for respiratory illness; influenza-associated emergency visits; or influenza-associated hospitalizations. We ran linear mixed models to compare estimated actual protection against indirect VE for the four outcomes, and graphed the data., Results: Of 2320 unique records identified, we abstracted and appraised 26 articles describing 24 studies. The majority of included studies reported at least one outcome suggesting that immunizing one group reduced influenza-related outcomes in another group. Critical appraisal of the abstracted studies identified recurring methodological weaknesses, such as lack of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Our exploratory analyses of 18 studies indicated a positive but not statistically significant relationship between estimated actual protection and indirect protection for each of the four outcomes., Conclusions: Our systematic review and exploratory analyses suggest influenza immunization provides some level of indirect protection. However, our critical appraisal highlights the need for a standardized and consistently applied approach to measuring indirect protection against influenza to fill existing knowledge gaps. Additionally, the concept of estimated actual protection requires validation., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

NASA maintains and operates a global network of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) ground stations as part of the NASA Space Geodesy Program. The NASA Space Geodesy Network (NSGN) provides the geodetic products that support Earth observations and the related science requirements as outlined by the US National Research Council (NRC 2010, 2018). The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and the NRC have set an ambitious goal of improving the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) to have an accuracy of 1 millimeter and stability of 0.1 millimeters per year, an order of magnitude beyond current capabilities. NASA and its partners within GGOS are addressing this challenge by planning and implementing modern geodetic stations co-located at existing and new sites around the world. In 2013, NASA demonstrated the performance of its next-generation systems at the prototype next-generation core site at NASA's Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory in Greenbelt, Maryland. Implementation of a new broadband VLBI station in Hawaii was completed in 2016. NASA is currently implementing new VLBI and SLR stations in Texas and is planning the replacement of its other aging domestic and international legacy stations. In this article, we describe critical gaps in the current global network and discuss how the new NSGN will expand the global geodetic coverage and ultimately improve the geodetic products. We also describe the characteristics of a modern NSGN site and the capabilities of the next-generation NASA SLR and VLBI systems. Finally, we outline the plans for efficiently operating the NSGN by centralizing and automating the operations of the new geodetic stations.

This study examined the evolving nature of Bordetella pertussis in Ontario, Canada, by characterizing isolates for their genotypes and expression of pertactin (PRN). From 2009 to 2017, 413 B. pertussis were cultured from pertussis cases at the Public Health Ontario Laboratory. Their genotypes were determined by partial gene sequence analysis of their virulence and (or) vaccine antigens: filamentous haemagglutinin, PRN, fimbriae 3, and pertussis toxin, including the promoter region. Expression of PRN was measured by Western immunoblot. Two predominant genotypes, ST-1 and ST-2, were found throughout the study and were responsible for 47.5% and 46.3% of all case isolates, respectively. The prevalence of ST-1 appeared to fluctuate from 80.3% in 2009 to 20.0% in 2014 and 58.5% in 2017, while the prevalence of ST-2 changed from 18.4% in 2009 to 80.0% in 2014 and 26.2% in 2017. A PRN-deficient strain was first noted in 2011 (16.7%), and its prevalence increased to 70.8% in 2016 but decreased to 46.2% in 2017. More ST-2 (46.6%) than ST-1 (16.8%) strains were associated with PRN deficiency. Newer ST-21 and ST-22 found in 2015-2017 were uniformly PRN deficient. The impact of the evolving nature of B. pertussis on disease epidemiology requires further longitudinal studies.

In 2017 Ontario experienced the largest mumps outbreak in the province in 8 years, at a time when multiple outbreaks were occurring across North America. Of 259 reported cases, 143 occurred in Toronto, primarily among young adults. Routine genotyping of the small hydrophobic gene indicated that the outbreak was due to mumps virus genotype G. We performed a retrospective study of whole genome sequencing of 26 mumps virus isolates from early in the outbreak, using a tiling amplicon method. Results indicated that two of the cases were genetically divergent, with the remaining 24 cases belonging to two major clades and one minor clade. Phylogeographic analysis confirmed circulation of virus from each clade between Toronto and other regions in Ontario. Comparison with other genotype G strains from North America suggested that the presence of co-circulating major clades may have been due to separate importation events from outbreaks in the United States. A transmission network analysis performed with the software program TransPhylo was compared with previously collected epidemiological data. The transmission tree correlated with known epidemiological links between nine patients and identified new potential clusters with no known epidemiological links.

Most commercially available enzyme immunoassay-based methods have limited sensitivity to detect antibody responses to varicella-zoster virus (VZV) in vaccinated individuals, who produce lower antibody levels than those with natural infection. However, more sensitive methods are either not commercially available or less amenable to high-throughput testing. The BioPlex 2200 measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (MMRV) IgG assay (Bio-Rad Laboratories, Hercules, CA) is an automated high-throughput platform based on the microsphere Luminex technology that measures antibodies against measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella viruses simultaneously. Although it has U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval as a qualitative diagnostic test for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella virus immunity, in this study, we have validated the assay to produce quantitative titers (off label) against the VaccZyme VZV glycoprotein (VZVgp) low-level IgG kit (The Binding Site Ltd., Birmingham, UK) using the World Health Organization international standard. Here, we show that the BioPlex 2200 MMRV IgG assay has sensitivity superior to that of the Zeus enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) VZV IgG assay (Zeus Diagnostics, Branchburg, NJ). Using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and adjusting the cutoff levels, we improved the sensitivity of the quantitative BioPlex 2200 MMRV IgG assay to 97.4%, while maintaining 100% specificity., (© Crown copyright 2019.)

Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared.

Background: Resurgences of pertussis have occurred in several high-income countries, often linked to waning of immunity from acellular pertussis vaccines. The degree of waning observed has varied by study design and setting. In Ontario, pertussis has not shown a substantial resurgence in the past decade. The routine immunization schedule comprises three priming doses in infancy, toddler and pre-school doses, and an adolescent dose at 14-16 years of age., Methods: We estimated pertussis vaccine effectiveness (VE) through a case-control study of 1335 cases statutorily reported to public health in Ontario and occurring between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2015, compared with 5340 randomly selected population controls, frequency-matched by age, primary-care provider and year of diagnosis. Pertussis cases met provincial confirmed or probable case definitions. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios (aOR)., Results: VE against pertussis was sustained between 92% (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 88-95%) in 2-3 year olds and 90% (95%CI: 80-95%) in 8-9 year olds, but fell rapidly to 49% (95%CI: 2-73%) in children 12-13 years of age. VE following the teenage booster given at 14-16 years in Ontario reached 76% (95%CI: 52-88%) in 14-16 year olds and 78% (95%CI: -31 to 96%) in those 16-22 years old. For children who were up-to-date with the immunization schedule, VE declined from 87% (95%CI: 84-90%) during the first year to 74% (95%CI: 63-82%) after 8 or more years following their last dose of immunization., Conclusions: VE is high during the first decade of life but then falls rapidly. Protection is not fully restored by the teenage booster. Our findings are consistent with the localized outbreaks we observe in high school children and underline the importance of additional policies to protect infants., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Ontario implemented a publicly-funded rotavirus (RV) immunization program in 2011. Our objectives were to evaluate its impact on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) five years after implementation., Methods: We performed a population-based longitudinal retrospective cohort study to identify hospitalizations and ED visits for RV-AGE and overall AGE in all age groups using ICD-10 codes between August 1, 2005 and March 31, 2016. A negative binomial regression model that included the effect of time was used to calculate rates, rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AGE before and after the program's implementation, after adjusting for age, seasonality and secular trends. We examined the seasonality of RV-AGE hospitalizations among children under five before and after the program and explored its equity impact., Results: Following program implementation, RV-AGE hospitalizations and ED visits among children under five years declined by 76% (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.20-0.28) and 68% (RR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21-0.50), respectively. In addition, hospitalizations and ED visits for overall AGE declined by 38% (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65) and 26% (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.73-0.76), respectively, among children under age five. Significant reductions in both outcomes were also found across a range of age-strata. In the pre-program period, the mean monthly hospitalization rate for RV-AGE among children residing in the most marginalized neighbourhoods was 33% higher than those residing in the least marginalized (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.52), this disparity was not evident in the program period (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.69-1.32). We found no evidence of a seasonal shift in rotavirus pediatric hospitalizations., Interpretation: The introduction of routine infant rotavirus immunization has had a substantial population impact in Ontario. Our study confirms herd effects and suggests the program may have reduced previous inequities in the burden of pediatric rotavirus hospitalizations., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Canada eliminated measles in 1998. We conducted a sero-epidemiology study to estimate population immunity to measles in the province of Ontario, Canada and to identify groups at higher risk of outbreaks. We used a previously developed modified enzyme immunoassay to test 1,199 residual sera from patients aged 1-39 years. We re-tested negative and equivocal sera using a plaque reduction neutralization assay. We interpreted our results in the context of Ontario's immunization program and vaccine coverage data. Of 1,199 sera, 1035 (86.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 84.4, 88.2) were above the measles threshold for protection, 70 (5.8%, 95% CI 4.5, 7.2) were equivocal and 94 (7.8%, 95% CI 6.3, 9.4) were negative. The proportion of positive sera was highest for those 1-5 years, with 180/199 (90.5%, 95% CI 86.4, 94.5) positive sera, and lowest for those age 12-19 years, at 158/199 (79.4%, 95% CI 73.8, 85.0). Adjusted for age, females were more likely than males to have antibody titers above the threshold of protection (odds ratio = 1.60, 95% CI 1.14, 2.24). Most of the study cohort were eligible for two measles vaccine doses, and vaccine uptake in Ontario is >90% for school-aged cohorts. We observed a higher than expected proportion of sera with antibody levels below the threshold of protection, suggesting that immunity in some Ontario age-groups may be waning, despite high vaccine coverage. Alternatively, the traditional measles correlates of protection may not be an appropriate measure of population protection in measles-eliminated settings.

Background: Direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C (HCV) infection have reduced the need for on-treatment HCV RNA monitoring. We assessed the accuracy and cost implications of using HCV core antigen testing to replace HCV RNA testing for confirmation of diagnosis, on-treatment monitoring, and determination of sustained virological response (SVR)., Methods: In a retrospective screening cohort study, de-identified residual serum from unselected samples were obtained from commercial laboratories in Ontario, Canada. Samples from each 5-year age-sex band from birth years 1945-74 collected from Aug 1, 2014, to Feb 28, 2015, were included. All samples that tested positive for HCV antibodies, and 10% of samples that tested negative for HCV antibodies, were tested for HCV core antigen and HCV RNA. A retrospective clinical cohort study was also done using blood samples from patients with confirmed HCV infection collected at four tertiary academic centres: one in Canada, two in Germany, and one in the USA. For assessment of SVR, we included samples from patients who started direct-acting antiviral-based treatment (excluding telaprevir and boceprevir) with or without peginterferon, ribavirin, or both, from Jan 1, 2014, to March 31, 2015. To ensure inclusion of adequate numbers for analysis, patients who relapsed after any treatment regimen were included. Serum samples included in the study were from baseline, week 4 on-treatment (only for patients treated with direct-acting antivirals), end of treatment, and week 12 or 24 of follow-up. The sensitivity and specificity of core antigen testing as a diagnostic tool was assessed in the screening cohort, using HCV RNA as a reference. The sensitivity and specificity of core antigen testing as well as its concordance with HCV RNA testing in the clinical cohort was assessed at baseline, week 4 on-treatment, and at weeks 12 or 24 after the end of treatment in patients undergoing therapy with direct-acting antivirals. The cost-effectiveness of core antigen testing with and without confirmatory HCV RNA testing for negative samples was also assessed., Findings: From 10 006 samples in the screening cohort, 75 of 80 viraemic (HCV RNA-positive) samples tested positive for HCV core antigen (sensitivity 94%, 95% CI 86-98), and none of the 993 HCV RNA-negative samples tested positive for HCV core antigen (specificity 100%, 95% CI 94-100). The five viraemic samples that tested negative for HCV core antigen had low corresponding HCV RNA concentrations. In the clinical cohort, two (1%) of 202 baseline samples tested negative for HCV core antigen; one had a low HCV RNA concentration (468 IU/mL), the other had a high HCV RNA concentration (>2 000 000 IU/mL). By week 4 of treatment, HCV core antigen concentrations decreased in all patients but were not predictive of SVR. Although there was good concordance between HCV RNA and HCV core antigen results at 12 weeks after the end of treatment (r=0·97; p<0·0001), three of the 148 patients who achieved SVR at 12 weeks tested HCV core antigen positive. 12 weeks after the end of treatment, HCV core antigen was undetectable in one (1%) of 71 samples from patients who were identified as having relapsed according to HCV RNA detection. On-treatment and end-of-treatment testing of core antigen or HCV RNA provided little clinical value. The use of HCV core antigen testing as a confirmatory diagnostic strategy was cost saving relative to HCV RNA testing, with a reduction of CAD$0·29-3·70 per patient screened depending on whether HCV RNA testing was used to confirm HCV core antigen-negative results., Interpretation: These data support the use of HCV core antigen testing to document HCV viraemia in a cost-saving diagnostic algorithm. In a treatment setting, HCV core antigen testing can be used instead of HCV RNA testing for diagnosis and documentation of treatment adherence, but it might not be adequate to determine SVR. This approach might improve access to care, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries., Funding: Abbott Diagnostics and Toronto Centre for Liver Disease., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a rapid assessment of disease severity was a challenge as a significant proportion of cases did not seek medical care; care-seeking behaviour changed and the proportion asymptomatic was unknown. A random-digit-dialling telephone survey was undertaken during the 2011/12 winter season in England and Wales to address the feasibility of answering these questions. A proportional quota sampling strategy was employed based on gender, age group, geographical location, employment status and level of education. Households were recruited pre-season and re-contacted immediately following peak seasonal influenza activity. The pre-peak survey was undertaken in October 2011 with 1061 individuals recruited and the post-peak telephone survey in March 2012. Eight hundred and thirty-four of the 1061 (78.6%) participants were successfully re-contacted. Their demographic characteristics compared well to national census data. In total, 8.4% of participants self-reported an influenza-like illness (ILI) in the previous 2 weeks, with 3.2% conforming to the World Health Organization (WHO) ILI case definition. In total, 29.6% of the cases reported consulting their general practitioner. 54.1% of the 1061 participants agreed to be re-contacted about providing biological samples. A population-based cohort was successfully recruited and followed up. Longitudinal survey methodology provides a practical tool to assess disease severity during future pandemics.

Introduction: Under-reporting of pertussis cases is a longstanding challenge. We estimated the true number of pertussis cases in Ontario using multiple data sources, and evaluated the completeness of each source., Methods: We linked data from multiple sources for the period 2009 to 2015: public health reportable disease surveillance data, public health laboratory data, and health administrative data (hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and physician office visits). To estimate the total number of pertussis cases in Ontario, we used a three-source capture-recapture analysis stratified by age (infants, or aged one year and older) and adjusting for dependency between sources. We used the Bayesian Information Criterion to compare models., Results: Using probable and confirmed reported cases, laboratory data, and combined hospitalizations/emergency department visits, the estimated total number of cases during the six-year period amongst infants was 924, compared with 545 unique observed cases from all sources. Using the same sources, the estimated total for those aged 1 year and older was 12,883, compared with 3,304 observed cases from all sources. Only 37% of infants and 11% for those aged 1 year and over admitted to hospital or seen in an emergency department for pertussis were reported to public health. Public health reporting sensitivity varied from 2% to 68% depending on age group and the combination of data sources included. Sensitivity of combined hospitalizations and emergency department visits varied from 37% to 49% and of laboratory data from 1% to 50%., Conclusions: All data sources contribute cases and are complementary, suggesting that the incidence of pertussis is substantially higher than suggested by routine reports. The sensitivity of different data sources varies. Better case identification is required to improve pertussis control in Ontario.

Introduction: Most infants are born with immunity to measles through maternal antibodies transferred in pregnancy, which decay over time. However, in measles elimination settings, where measles does not circulate endemically and most immunity is from immunization rather than infection, maternal antibody levels are lower. This results in infant immunity that wanes earlier, and a wider susceptibility gap between maternal antibody decay and infant immunization than in non-eliminated settings. We aimed to systematically quantify the extent and duration of protection from measles in infants in settings that have sustained measles elimination., Methods: We conducted a systematic review of studies of measles maternal antibody waning in infants in measles elimination settings. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Scopus, BIOSIS Previews, and Global Health databases for relevant studies. Studies were included if they were set in countries that had eliminated measles for ≥3 years, and if the study cohort included healthy, full-term, unvaccinated infants ≤12 months, born to healthy mothers, and reported a relevant measure of measles maternal antibody in infants. We assessed study quality using the MetaQAT tool., Results: We identified 4692 unique citations, eight of which met inclusion criteria. One study reported anti-measles antibody in cord blood, six reported antibody in infant sera, and one reported both. Two studies reported that 80 and 100% of infants were protected from measles at birth. One study reported no protection amongst 3-7 month old infants, and another reported limited protection in infants >4 months. The remaining studies reported the proportion of infants with detected antibody, but not the proportion immune., Conclusion: Although limited, these data suggest that in settings that have sustained measles elimination, some infants are susceptible to measles well before the age of routine measles immunization. Setting-specific seroprevalence and vaccine effectiveness studies are required to evaluate this in different jurisdictions., (Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the most burdensome infectious illness in Canada. Current screening strategies miss a significant proportion of cases, leaving many undiagnosed. Elevated HCV prevalence in those born between 1945 and 1965 has prompted calls for birth-cohort screening in this group. However, Canada lacks population-level data to support this recommendation. We performed a serosurvey to obtain population-based HCV prevalence estimates in Ontario residents born between 1945-1974, to generate evidence for birth-cohort screening recommendations., Methods: We tested anonymized residual sera in five-year age-sex bands from Ontario for anti-HCV antibody. We performed descriptive epidemiological analysis and used a logistic regression model to determine HCV risk-factors., Results: Of 10,006 sera analyzed, 155 (1.55%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32, 1.81) were positive for HCV antibody. Individuals born between 1950-1964 had a significantly higher combined prevalence of 1.92% (95% CI 1.56, 2.34) compared to 1.14% (95% CI 0.69, 1.77) (p = 0.04) for those born between 1970-1974. For males, comprising 107/155 (69.03%) of positive samples, the highest prevalence was 3.00% (95% CI 1.95, 4.39) for the 1960-1964 birth-cohort. For females, the highest prevalence was 1.56% (95% CI 0.83, 2.65) for those born between 1955-1959. Male sex was significantly associated with positive HCV serostatus., Interpretation: HCV prevalence in Ontario is highest among those in this birth cohort, and higher than previous estimates. The prevalence estimates presented in our study provide important data to underpin birth-cohort screening recommendations.

Background: There is mounting evidence that the recent resurgence of pertussis in many countries is in part related to the acellular vaccine, which has been administered in Canada since 1997. This vaccine elicits a different cell-mediated immune response than the previously used whole-cell vaccine, and its effectiveness wanes over time. The aim of this study is to understand the immunological, demographic and clinical factors that mediate protection from pertussis on exposure., Methods: This is a household case-control study protocol. Following notification of an index case in a household, a study team will conduct a home visit to collect data and biological specimens. The study team will return to the household 8 weeks from the onset of illness in the index case. The Th1, Th2 and Th17 responses, cytokine expression, IgG subclass, blood cell counts and presence of Bordetella pertussis will be determined. We will use laboratory and statistical analyses to determine immunological differences between contacts who are infected with B. pertussis and contacts who remain healthy, and to determine which clinical and demographic covariates are associated with a reduced risk of infection., Interpretation: The results of this study will be essential for understanding the immune response required for protection from infection with B. pertussis and will contribute to our understanding of the shortcomings of the current vaccine., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Otto Vanderkooi has conducted maternal immunization studies for pertussis in collaboration with the Canadian Centre for Vaccinology, Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline. Scott Halperin has received grants and contracts from and has served on ad hoc advisory boards for Sanofi Pasteur and GlaxoSmithKline. No other competing interests were declared., (Copyright 2017, Joule Inc. or its licensors.)

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R 0 ), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. R 0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease. As R 0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. For measles, R 0 is often cited to be 12-18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12-18 other people in a totally susceptible population. We did a systematic review to find studies reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of measles R 0 . Studies were included if they were a primary source of R 0 , addressed pre-existing immunity, and accounted for pre-existing immunity in their calculation of R 0 . A search of key databases was done in January, 2015, and repeated in November, 2016, and yielded 10 883 unique citations. After screening for relevancy and quality, 18 studies met inclusion criteria, providing 58 R 0 estimates. We calculated median measles R 0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R 0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12-18. Our results highlight the importance of countries calculating R 0 using locally derived data or, if this is not possible, using parameter estimates from similar settings. Additional data and agreed review methods are needed to strengthen the evidence base for measles elimination modelling., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In Canada, measles was eliminated in 1998 and rubella in 2000. Effective measles and rubella surveillance is vital in elimination settings, hinging on reliable laboratory methods. However, low-prevalence settings affect the predictive value of laboratory tests. We conducted an analysis to determine the performance of measles and rubella IgM testing in a jurisdiction where both infections are eliminated. 21,299 test results were extracted from the Public Health Ontario Laboratories database and 1,239 reports were extracted from the Ontario Integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS) from 2008 and 2010 for measles and rubella, respectively, to 2014. Deterministic linkage resulted in 658 linked measles records (2009-2014) and 189 linked rubella records (2010-2014). Sixty-six iPHIS measles entries were classified as confirmed cases, of which 53 linked to laboratory data. Five iPHIS rubella entries were classified as confirmed, all linked to IgM results. The positive predictive value was 17.4% for measles and 3.6% for rubella. Sensitivity was 79.2% for measles and 100.0% for rubella. Specificity was 65.7% for measles and 25.8% for rubella. Our study confirms that a positive IgM alone does not confirm a measles case in elimination settings. This has important implications for countries that are working towards measles and rubella elimination.

Background: Despite widespread implementation of syndromic surveillance systems within public health agencies, previous studies of the implementation and use of these systems have indicated that the functions and responses taken in response to syndromic surveillance data vary widely according to local context and preferences. The objective of the Syndromic Surveillance Evaluation Study was to develop and implement standardized supports in local public health agencies in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the ability of these supports to affect actions taken as part of public health communicable disease control programs., Methods: Local public health agencies (LPHA) in Ontario, which used syndromic surveillance based on emergency department visits for respiratory disease, were recruited and randomly allocated to the study intervention or control group. The intervention group health agencies received standardized supports in terms of a standardized aberrant event detection algorithm and a response protocol dictating steps to investigate and assess the public health significance of syndromic surveillance alerts. The control group continued with their pre-existing syndromic surveillance infrastructure and processes. Outcomes were assessed using logbooks, which collected quantitative and qualitative information about alerts received, investigation steps taken, and public health responses. The study was conducted prospectively for 15 months (October 2013 to February 2015)., Results: Fifteen LPHAs participated in the study (n = 9 intervention group, n = 6 control group). A total of 1,969 syndromic surveillance alerts were received by all LPHAs. Variations in the types and amount of responses varied by LPHA, in particularly differences were noted by the size of the health unit. Smaller health units had more challenges to both detect and mount a response to any alerts. LPHAs in the control group were more likely to declare alerts to have public health significance and to initiate any action. Regression models using repeated measures showed an interaction between the year (Year 1 versus Year 2) and the intervention as well as an interaction between year and sustained nature of the alert. Both of these were linked to the control health units reporting more "watchful waiting"., Conclusions: This study raises questions about the effectiveness of using standardized protocols to improve the performance of syndromic surveillance in a decentralized public health system. Despite efforts to create standardized protocols and engage public health agencies in the process, no significant differences in the effective use of syndromic alerts were observed beyond year 1. It also raises questions about the minimum capacity of the agency and minimum population size that are required for an effective response.

The BioPlex 2200 (Bio-Rad Laboratories, Hercules, CA) is a rapid, automated platform, which can screen large numbers of specimens for antibodies to measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella. Although approved for producing qualitative results, in this study we validated the test (off-label) to allow reporting of quantitative results. To do this, we used the third anti-measles World Health Organization standard to generate a calibration curve that allowed relative fluorescence intensity to be translated into quantitative antibody titer (antibody units [AU]/ml). The results from the BioPlex 2200 and the reference plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) exhibited a reasonable correlation following an exponential function, but correlation was poor in low-titer samples. Using a receiver operating characteristics analysis, an equivocal zone for the BioPlex 2200 was established between ≥0.13 and <1.10 AU/ml to achieve 100% specificity (95% confidence interval [CI] = 83.2 to 100%) and 100% sensitivity (95% CI = 93.5 to 100%) versus PRNT. By determining an equivocal range requiring confirmation by PRNT, we can avoid underestimating the levels of immunity through false-negative results and optimize methods for seroepidemiological studies., (Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.)

Background: A resurgence of pertussis cases among both vaccinated and unvaccinated people raises questions about vaccine effectiveness over time. Our objective was to study the effectiveness of the pertussis vaccine and characterize the effect of waning immunity and whole-cell vaccine priming., Methods: We used the test-negative design, a nested case-control study with test-negative individuals as controls. We constructed multivariable logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs). Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1 - OR) × 100. We assessed waning immunity by calculating the odds of developing pertussis per year since last vaccination and evaluated the relative effectiveness of priming with acellular versus whole-cell vaccine., Results: Between Dec. 7, 2009, and Mar. 31, 2013, data on 5867 individuals (486 test-positive cases and 5381 test-negative controls) were available for analysis. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 71% to 86%) at 15-364 days, 84% (95% CI 77% to 89%) at 1-3 years, 62% (95% CI 42% to 75%) at 4-7 years and 41% (95% CI 0% to 66%) at 8 or more years since last vaccination. We observed waning immunity with the acellular vaccine, with an adjusted OR for pertussis infection of 1.27 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.34) per year since last vaccination. Acellular, versus whole-cell, vaccine priming was associated with an increased odds of pertussis (adjusted OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.30 to 3.57)., Interpretation: We observed high early effectiveness of the pertussis vaccine that rapidly declined as time since last vaccination surpassed 4 years, particularly with acellular vaccine priming. Considering whole-cell vaccine priming and/or boosters in pregnancy to optimize pertussis control may be prudent., (© 2016 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.)

Objective: To evaluate the direct and indirect population impact of rotavirus (RV) immunization on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in Ontario before and after the publicly-funded RV immunization program., Methods: Administrative data was used to identify ED visits and hospitalizations for all Ontarians using ICD-10 codes. We used two outcome definitions: RV-specific AGE (RV-AGE) and codes representing RV-, other viral and cause unspecified AGE ("overall AGE"). The pre-program and public program periods were August 1, 2005 to July 31, 2011; and August 1, 2011 to March 31, 2013, respectively. A negative binominal regression model that included the effect of time was used to calculate rates and rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RV-AGE and overall AGE between periods, after adjusting for age, seasonality and secular trends. Analyses were conducted for all ages combined and age stratified., Results: Relative to the pre-program period, the adjusted RRs for RV-AGE and overall AGE hospitalizations in the public program period were 0.29 (95%CI: 0.22-0.39) and 0.68 (95%CI: 0.62-0.75), respectively. Significant reductions in RV-AGE hospitalizations were noted overall and for the following age bands: < 12 months, 12-23 months, 24-35 months, 3-4 years, and 5-19 years. Significant declines in overall AGE hospitalizations were observed across all age bands, including older adults > = 65 years (RR 0.80, 95%CI: 0.72-0.90). The program was associated with adjusted RRs of 0.32 (95% CI: 0.20-0.52) for RV-AGE ED visits and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96) for overall AGE ED visits., Conclusions: This large, population-based study provides evidence of the impact of RV vaccine in preventing hospitalizations and ED visits for RV-AGE and overall AGE, including herd effects.

Using EPR spectroscopy it was established that the determination of the concentration of paramagnetic centers in lyophilized tissues allows indirect evaluation of the quality of decellularization of intrathoracic organs (diaphragm, heart, and lungs), since the content of paramagnetic particles in them can serve as a criterion of cell viability and points to the necessity to repeat decellularization. Experiments in rats showed that the EPR spectra of the native thoracic organs contained paramagnetic centers with g-factor values ranging from 2.007 to 2.011 at a concentration of 10(-8) to 6.62 × 10(-7) mol/g of lyophilized tissue, whereas in all decellularized tissues of the same organs paramagnetic particles were not detected.

Pertussis (whooping cough) is a respiratory disease caused by the bacterium Bordetella pertussis. Despite the implementation of immunization programs and high vaccine coverage in most jurisdictions, pertussis is still one of the most common vaccine-preventable diseases, suggesting that the current vaccines and immunization schedules have not been sufficiently effective. Several factors are thought to contribute to this. The acellular pertussis vaccine that has been used in many jurisdictions since the 1990s is less effective than the previously used whole-cell vaccine, with immunity waning over time. Both whole-cell and acellular pertussis vaccines are effective at reducing disease severity but not transmission, resulting in outbreaks in vaccinated cohorts. In this review, we discuss various limitations of the current approaches to protection from pertussis and outline various options for reducing the burden of pertussis on a population level., (© Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of FEMS 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: In 2011 the largest measles outbreak in North America in a decade occurred in Quebec, Canada with over 700 cases. In contrast, measles activity in neighbouring province Ontario remained low (8 cases). Our objective was to determine the extent to which the difference could be explained by differing travel patterns., Methods: We explored the relationship between measles cases over 2007-2011, by importation classification, in Quebec and Ontario in relation to global travel patterns to each province using an ecological approach. Global measles exposure was estimated by multiplying the monthly traveler volume for each country of origin into Quebec or Ontario by the yearly measles incidence rate for the corresponding country. Visual inspection of temporal figures and calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients were performed., Results: Global measles exposure was similar in Ontario and Quebec. In Quebec, there was a nearly perfectly linear relationship between annual measles cases and its global measles exposure index over 2007-2011 (r = 0.99, p = 0.001). In contrast, there was a non-significant association in Ontario. The 2011 rise in Quebec's index was largely driven by a dramatic increase in measles activity in France the same year., Conclusions: Global measles activity was associated with measles epidemiology in Quebec. Global measles exposure risk is higher in Ontario than Quebec. Differences in measles epidemiology between Ontario and Quebec from 2007-2011 are not explained by greater exposure in Quebec. A combination of alternative factors may be responsible, including differences in population susceptibility.

Bordetella pertussis testing performed using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is interpreted based on a cycle threshold (Ct) value. At Public Health Ontario Laboratories (PHOL), a Ct value <36 is reported as positive, and Ct values ≥36 and <40 are reported as indeterminate. PHOL reported indeterminate results to physicians and public health units until May 2012, after which these results were only reported to physicians. We investigated the association between Ct value and disease symptom and severity to examine the significance of indeterminate results clinically, epidemiologically and for public health reporting. B. pertussis positive and indeterminate RT-PCR results were linked to pertussis cases reported in the provincial Integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS), using deterministic linkage. Patients with positive RT-PCR results had a lower median age of 10.8 years compared to 12.0 years for patients with indeterminate results (p = 0.24). Hospitalized patients had significantly lower Ct values than non-hospitalized patients (median Ct values of 20.7 vs. 31.6, p<0.001). The proportion of patients reporting the most indicative symptoms of pertussis did not differ between patients with positive vs. indeterminate RT-PCR results. Taking the most indicative symptoms of pertussis as the gold-standard, the positive predictive value of the RT-PCR test was 68.1%. RT-PCR test results should be interpreted in the context of the clinical symptoms, age, vaccination status, prevalence, and other factors. Further information on interpretation of indeterminate RT-PCR results may be needed, and the utility of reporting to public health practitioners should be re-evaluated.

Background: The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) is a measure that has been widely used in the scientific literature to draw conclusions about the usefulness and cost-effectiveness of various immunization programmes. The main objective of this review is to examine how and why the NNV has been used and reported in the published literature., Methods: Electronic databases were searched and records were screened against the eligibility criteria by two independent authors. We included papers that reported and interpreted NNV., Results: We identified 27 studies, the designs including observational studies, economic analyses, systematic reviews, and commentaries. The NNV has been used in the literature to describe three main themes: potential benefits of vaccination programmes, cost-effectiveness, and economic analyses, and modelling studies to compare different vaccination strategies., Conclusions: NNV has been used in a wide variety of ways in the literature, yet there are no defined thresholds for what is a favourable NNV. Furthermore, the generalizability of the NNV is usually limited. Further work is required to determine the most appropriate use of this measure., (Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Zimbabwe underwent a socioeconomic crisis and resultant increase in food insecurity in 2008-9. The impact of the crisis on Tuberculosis (TB) incidence is unknown., Methods: Prospective databases from two mission hospitals, which were geographically widely separated, and remained open during the crisis, were reviewed., Results: At the Howard Hospital (HH) in northern Zimbabwe, TB incidence increased 35% in 2008 from baseline rates in 2003-2007 (p<0.01) and remained at that level in 2009. Murambinda Hospital (MH) in Eastern Zimbabwe also demonstrated a 29% rise in TB incidence from 2007 to 2008 (p<0.01) and remained at that level in 2009. Data collected post-crisis at HH showed a decrease of 33% in TB incidence between 2009 to 2010 (p<0.001) and 2010/2011 TB incidence remained below that of the crisis years of 2008/2009 (p<0.01). Antenatal clinic HIV seroprevalence at HH decreased between 2001(23%) to 2011(11%) (p<0.001). Seasonality of TB incidence was analyzed at both MH and HH. There was a higher TB incidence in the dry season when food is least available (September-November) compared to post harvest (April-June) (p<0.001)., Conclusion: This study suggests that an epidemic of TB mirrored socioeconomic collapse and recovery in Zimbabwe. The seasonal data suggests that food security may have been associated with TB incidence both annually and during the crisis in this high HIV prevalence country.

Background: The World Health Organization and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have highlighted the importance of establishing systems to monitor severe influenza. Following the H1N1 (2009) influenza pandemic, a sentinel network of 23 Trusts, the UK Severe Influenza Surveillance System (USISS), was established to monitor hospitalisations due to confirmed seasonal influenza in England. This article presents the results of the first season of operation of USISS in 2010/11., Methodology/principal Findings: A case was defined as a person hospitalised with confirmed influenza of any type. Weekly aggregate numbers of hospitalised influenza cases, broken down by flu type and level of care, were submitted by participating Trusts. Cases in 2010/11 were compared to cases during the 2009 pandemic in hospitals with available surveillance data for both time periods (n = 19). An unexpected resurgence in seasonal A/H1N1 (2009) influenza activity in England was observed in December 2010 with reports of severe disease. Reported cases over the period of 4 October 2010 to 13 February 2011 were mostly due to influenza A/H1N1 (2009). One thousand and seventy-one cases of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) occurred over this period compared to 409 at the same Trusts over the 2009/10 pandemic period (1 April 2009 to 6 January 2010). Median age of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) cases in 2010/11 was 35 years, compared with 20 years during the pandemic (p = <0.0001)., Conclusions/significance: The Health Protection Agency successfully established a sentinel surveillance system for severe influenza in 2010/11, detecting a rise in influenza cases mirroring other surveillance indicators. The data indicate an upward shift in the age-distribution of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) during the 2010/11 influenza season as compared to the 2009/10 pandemic. Systems to enable the ongoing surveillance of severe influenza will be a key component in understanding and responding to the evolving epidemiology of influenza in the post-pandemic era.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV in breastfeeding women in rural Zimbabwe. During a severe socio-economic crisis in 2005-2007, 82 eligible HIV-positive pregnant women between 14-36 weeks gestation were initiated on HAART with AZT/3TC/nelfinavir combination therapy at a rural hospital and continued through to six months post-partum. In addition, mothers also received intrapartum single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP). Infants received sdNVP/AZT in the first 72 hours and were assessed for HIV infection at six weeks of age. Results were compared to historical controls of HIV-positive pregnant women who received sdNVP only at the same center. Of the 67 infants with available data on HIV status at six weeks postpartum, three (4.4%) were HIV positive by HIV RNA assay in the HAART + sdNVP group compared to 49/297 (16.5%) in the sdNVP group (p = 0.01). HAART given to HIV-infected mothers in pregnancy and during breastfeeding along with intrapartum sdNVP resulted in a lower postnatal HIV transmission at six weeks postpartum compared to sdNVP treatment. Our HAART regimen demonstrates that PMTCT of HIV can be effective even during times of socioeconomic crisis in resource-poor rural settings.

Toronto has been the site of a recent extended tuberculosis (TB) outbreak in the homeless or under-housed population. Genotyping has identified a unique strain that continues to circulate within this population, with spread to individuals with no links to the shelter system, and anecdotally appears to progress rapidly from infection to active disease in some cases. The recent appearance and transmission of another unique strain was also identified, indicating that TB transmission continues to be a problem within the under-housed population. Enhanced surveillance utilizing molecular epidemiology is a useful tool to assist in TB control in vulnerable populations.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious disease that is transmitted primarily by the airborne route. Effective disease control and outbreak management requires the timely diagnosis, isolation and treatment of infected individuals with active disease; contact tracing to identify secondary cases likely to benefit from treatment of latent infection; and laboratory identification or confirmation of epidemiologically linked cases. TB genotyping enables the comparison of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) strains and the identification of cases that may or may not be linked. The increased availability of molecular methods for genotyping has allowed for greater discrimination of MTBC strains and greatly enhanced understanding of TB transmission patterns., Objective: To improve TB surveillance and control in Ontario, the Public Health Laboratories of the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion has introduced the Ontario Universal Typing of Tuberculosis (OUT-TB) Surveillance Program., Methods: The first isolate from every new TB case will be genotyped with two rapid molecular methods: spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable-number tandem repeat typing. MTBC isolates with nonunique genotypes and, thus, potentially linked to other TB cases, will also be genotyped by IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis., Conclusion: By providing TB control programs using these new genotyping tools, and using traditional and new case investigation methods (eg, social network analysis), this new program will provide a clearer picture of TB in Ontario, and permit more effective use of public health resources and improve disease control.

The increase in adamantine resistance in influenza A (H3N2) and the emergence of oseltamivir resistance in influenza A (H1N1) has necessitated the use of rapid methodologies to detect influenza subtype. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the CombiMatrix influenza detection system compared to the FDA approved Luminex Respiratory virus panel (RVP) assay for influenza A subtyping. Verification of the CombiMatrix influenza detection system was carried out using the Luminex RVP assay as a reference method. A limit of detection (LOD) series was performed using the Luminex and CombiMatrix systems with both influenza A H3N2 and H1N1 viruses. Seventy-five clinical specimens were used in the study. Of these, 16 were influenza A (H3N2) positive and five were influenza A (H1N1) positive. Fifty-four specimens were influenza A negative or "no call" (inconclusive) or could not be subtyped. The LOD of the Luminex RVP assay was found to be 0.3 TCID50s/mL for influenza A (H3N2) and 16 TCID50s/mL for influenza A (H1N1). The LOD of the CombiMatrix influenza detection system was 200 TCID50s/mL for influenza A (H3N2) and 16 000 TCID50s/mL for influenza A (H1N1). The sensitivity of the CombiMatrix influenza detection system was 95.2% and the specificity was 100%. The CombiMatrix influenza detection system is an effective methodology for influenza A subtype analysis, specifically in laboratories with a constrained budget or limited molecular capabilities.

This study describes the validation of the TaqMan Influenza A Detection Kit v2.0 combined with an automated nucleic acid extraction method. The limit of detection of this assay was determined by probit regression (95% confidence interval) to be 2 influenza A/PR/8/34 (H1N1) virus particles per microlitre. One hundred and eleven specimens previously tested using the Seeplex RV assay and viral culture methods were tested using the TaqMan Influenza A Detection Kit. Compared to the aggregate gold-standard, the sensitivity and specificity of the TaqMan Influenza A Detection Kit were 100% (35/35) and 97% (74/76), respectively. Because of its accuracy, quick turn-around-time and lyophilized bead form, the TaqMan Influenza A Detection Kit, combined with the NucliSense easyMAG automated extraction method, constitutes a reliable protocol for influenza A diagnosis.

Background: Bacterial resistance to antibiotics is thought to develop only in the presence of antibiotic pressure. Here we show evidence to suggest that fluoroquinolone resistance in Escherichia coli has developed in the absence of fluoroquinolone use., Methods: Over 4 years, outreach clinic attendees in one moderately remote and five very remote villages in rural Guyana were surveyed for the presence of rectal carriage of ciprofloxacin-resistant gram-negative bacilli (GNB). Drinking water was tested for the presence of resistant GNB by culture, and the presence of antibacterial agents and chloroquine by HPLC. The development of ciprofloxacin resistance in E. coli was examined after serial exposure to chloroquine. Patient and laboratory isolates of E. coli resistant to ciprofloxacin were assessed by PCR-sequencing for quinolone-resistance-determining-region (QRDR) mutations., Results: In the very remote villages, 4.8% of patients carried ciprofloxacin-resistant E. coli with QRDR mutations despite no local availability of quinolones. However, there had been extensive local use of chloroquine, with higher prevalence of resistance seen in the villages shortly after a Plasmodium vivax epidemic (p<0.01). Antibacterial agents were not found in the drinking water, but chloroquine was demonstrated to be present. Chloroquine was found to inhibit the growth of E. coli in vitro. Replica plating demonstrated that 2-step QRDR mutations could be induced in E. coli in response to chloroquine., Conclusions: In these remote communities, the heavy use of chloroquine to treat malaria likely selected for ciprofloxacin resistance in E. coli. This may be an important public health problem in malarious areas.

Background: Since the first recorded epidemic of syphilis in 1495, controversy has surrounded the origins of the bacterium Treponema pallidum subsp. pallidum and its relationship to the pathogens responsible for the other treponemal diseases: yaws, endemic syphilis, and pinta. Some researchers have argued that the syphilis-causing bacterium, or its progenitor, was brought from the New World to Europe by Christopher Columbus and his men, while others maintain that the treponematoses, including syphilis, have a much longer history on the European continent., Methodology/principal Findings: We applied phylogenetics to this problem, using data from 21 genetic regions examined in 26 geographically disparate strains of pathogenic Treponema. Of all the strains examined, the venereal syphilis-causing strains originated most recently and were more closely related to yaws-causing strains from South America than to other non-venereal strains. Old World yaws-causing strains occupied a basal position on the tree, indicating that they arose first in human history, and a simian strain of T. pallidum was found to be indistinguishable from them., Conclusions/significance: Our results lend support to the Columbian theory of syphilis's origin while suggesting that the non-sexually transmitted subspecies arose earlier in the Old World. This study represents the first attempt to address the problem of the origin of syphilis using molecular genetics, as well as the first source of information regarding the genetic make-up of non-venereal strains from the Western hemisphere.

Streptococcus iniae causes invasive disease and death in fish, and to a lesser extent, sporadic cases of soft-tissue infections in humans. A two-component system termed sivS/R, which regulates capsule expression, was previously identified and characterized. In this study, it is shown that a sivS/R deletion-insertion mutant, termed 9117Deltasiv, causes transient bacteremia and reduced virulence compared with the parent strain when tested in a murine model of bacteremic infection. Furthermore, real-time PCR studies indicated that SivS/R regulates the expression levels of the streptolysin S structural gene, sagA, as well as the CAMP factor gene, cfi. Sodium dodecyl sulphate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis of S. iniae spheroplasts revealed downregulation of three surface proteins in the mutant strain compared with the parent strain. These proteins were identified by MS to be a putative lipoprotein, a hyaluronate-associated protein and a pyruvate kinase. This study demonstrates that SivS/R regulates virulence in vivo, and controls the expression of a number of genes in S. iniae.