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When formulated as an unsupervised learning problem, anomaly detection often requires a model to learn the distribution of normal data. Previous works apply Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to anomaly detection tasks and show good performances from these models. Motivated by the observation that GAN ensembles often outperform single GANs in generation tasks, we propose to construct GAN ensembles for anomaly detection. In the proposed method, a group of generators and a group of discriminators are trained together, so every generator gets feedback from multiple discriminators, and vice versa. Compared to a single GAN, a GAN ensemble can better model the distribution of normal data and thus better detect anomalies. Our theoretical analysis of GANs and GAN ensembles explains the role of a GAN discriminator in anomaly detection. In the empirical study, we evaluate ensembles constructed from four types of base models, and the results show that these ensembles clearly outperform single models in a series of tasks of anomaly detection., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures. To appear in Proceedings 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI 21)

This paper concerns the parameter estimation problem for the quadratic potential energy in interacting particle systems from continuous-time and single-trajectory data. Even though such dynamical systems are high-dimensional, we show that the vanilla maximum likelihood estimator (without regularization) is able to estimate the interaction potential parameter with optimal rate of convergence simultaneously in mean-field limit and in long-time dynamics. This to some extend avoids the curse-of-dimensionality for estimating large dynamical systems under symmetry of the particle interaction.

This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe. By constructing scenarios with different combinations of NPIs, our empirical findings suggest that countries may avoid the lockdown policy with imposing school closure, mask wearing and centralized quarantine to reach similar outcomes on controlling the COVID-19 infection. Our results also suggest that, as of April 4th, 2020, certain countries such as the U.S. and Singapore may require additional measures of NPIs in order to control disease transmissions more effectively, while other countries may cautiously consider to gradually lift some NPIs to mitigate the costs to the overall economy., Comment: published in Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Principled nonparametric tests for regression curvature in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ are often statistically and computationally challenging. This paper introduces the stratified incomplete local simplex (SILS) tests for joint concavity of nonparametric multiple regression. The SILS tests with suitable bootstrap calibration are shown to achieve simultaneous guarantees on dimension-free computational complexity, polynomial decay of the uniform error-in-size, and power consistency for general (global and local) alternatives. To establish these results, a general theory for incomplete $U$-processes with stratified random sparse weights is developed. Novel technical ingredients include maximal inequalities for the supremum of multiple incomplete $U$-processes., Comment: Accepted to Bernoulli

This note provides the Stein equation for weighted sums of independent $\chi^{2}$ distributions.

Irregular functional data in which densely sampled curves are observed over different ranges pose a challenge for modeling and inference, and sensitivity to outlier curves is a concern in applications. Motivated by applications in quantitative ultrasound signal analysis, this paper investigates a class of robust M-estimators for partially observed functional data including functional location and quantile estimators. Consistency of the estimators is established under general conditions on the partial observation process. Under smoothness conditions on the class of M-estimators, asymptotic Gaussian process approximations are established and used for large sample inference. The large sample approximations justify a bootstrap approximation for robust inferences about the functional response process. The performance is demonstrated in simulations and in the analysis of irregular functional data from quantitative ultrasound analysis., Comment: 52 pages, 8 figures, Statistica Sinica (2021), Published online

We determine the information-theoretic cutoff value on separation of cluster centers for exact recovery of cluster labels in a $K$-component Gaussian mixture model with equal cluster sizes. Moreover, we show that a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation of the $K$-means clustering method achieves such sharp threshold for exact recovery without assuming the symmetry of cluster centers.