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Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially existential risk for humanity. Such a macro property should invite the use of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) rather than naive interpolations and expected averages for risk management purposes. An implication is that potential tail risk overrides conclusions on decisions derived from compartmental epidemiological models and similar approaches.

N point particles move within a billiard table made of two circular cavities connected by a straight channel. The usual billiard dynamics is modified so that it remains deterministic, phase space volumes preserving and time reversal invariant. Particles move in straight lines and are elastically reflected at the boundary of the table, as usual, but those in a channel that are moving away from a cavity invert their motion (rebound), if their number exceeds a given threshold T. When the geometrical parameters of the billiard table are fixed, this mechanism gives rise to non--equilibrium phase transitions in the large N limit: letting T/N decrease, the homogeneous particle distribution abruptly turns into a stationary inhomogeneous one. The equivalence with a modified Ehrenfest two urn model, motivated by the ergodicity of the billiard with no rebound, allows us to obtain analytical results that accurately describe the numerical billiard simulation results. Thus, a stochastic exactly solvable model that exhibits non-equilibrium phase transitions is also introduced.

Gliomas are the most common primary brain malignancies, with different degrees of aggressiveness, variable prognosis and various heterogeneous histological sub-regions, i.e., peritumoral edema, necrotic core, enhancing and non-enhancing tumour core. Although brain tumours can easily be detected using multi-modal MRI, accurate tumor segmentation is a challenging task. Hence, using the data provided by the BraTS Challenge 2020, we propose a 3D volume-to-volume Generative Adversarial Network for segmentation of brain tumours. The model, called Vox2Vox, generates realistic segmentation outputs from multi-channel 3D MR images, segmenting the whole, core and enhancing tumor with mean values of 87.20%, 81.14%, and 78.67% as dice scores and 6.44mm, 24.36mm, and 18.95mm for Hausdorff distance 95 percentile for the BraTS testing set after ensembling 10 Vox2Vox models obtained with a 10-fold cross-validation.

Diffusion in inhomogeneous materials can be described by both the Fick and Fokker--Planck diffusion equations. Here, we study a mixed Fick and Fokker-Planck diffusion problem with coefficients rapidly oscillating both in space and time. We obtain macroscopic models performing the homogenization limit by means of the unfolding technique.

Smart cities solutions are often monolithically implemented, from sensors data handling through to the provided services. The same challenges are regularly faced by different developers, for every new solution in a new city. Expertise and know-how can be re-used and the effort shared. In this article we present the methodologies to minimize the efforts of implementing new smart city solutions and maximizing the sharing of components. The final target is to have a live technical community of smart city application developers. The results of this activity comes from the implementation of 35 city services in 27 cities between Europe and South Korea. To share efforts, we encourage developers to devise applications using a modular approach. Single-function components that are re-usable by other city services are packaged and published as standalone components, named Atomic Services. We identify 15 atomic services addressing smart city challenges in data analytics, data evaluation, data integration, data validation, and visualization. 38 instances of the atomic services are already operational in several smart city services. We detail in this article, as atomic service examples, some data predictor components. Furthermore, we describe real-world atomic services usage in the scenarios of Santander and three Danish cities. The resulting atomic services also generate a side market for smart city solutions, allowing expertise and know-how to be re-used by different stakeholders., Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures, 4 Tables, to be published in IEEE IoT Journal

Stochastic particle--based models are useful tools for describing the collective movement of large crowds of pedestrians in crowded confined environments. Using descriptions based on the simple exclusion process, two populations of particles, mimicking pedestrians walking in a built environment, enter a room from two opposite sides. One population is passive -- being unaware of the local environment; particles belonging to this group perform a symmetric random walk. The other population has information on the local geometry in the sense that as soon as particles enter a visibility zone, a drift activates them. Their self-propulsion leads them towards the exit. This second type of species is referred here as active. The assumed crowdedness corresponds to a near--jammed scenario. The main question we ask in this paper is: Can we induce modifications of the dynamics of the active particles to improve the outgoing current of the passive particles? To address this question, we compute occupation number profiles and currents for both populations in selected parameter ranges. Besides observing the more classical faster--is--slower effect, new features appear as prominent like the non--monotonicity of currents, self--induced phase separation within the active population, as well as acceleration of passive particles for large--drift regimes of active particles., Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures

We study the solutions of a generalized Allen-Cahn equation deduced from a Landau energy functional, endowed with a non-constant higher order stiffness. We assume the stiffness to be a positive function of the field and we discuss the stability of the stationary solutions proving both linear and local non-linear stability.

Human crowds base most of their behavioral decisions upon anticipated states of their walking environment. We explore a minimal version of a lattice model to study lanes formation in pedestrian counterflow. Using the concept of horizon depth, our simulation results suggest that the anticipation effect together with the presence of a small background noise play an important role in promoting collective behaviors in a counterflow setup. These ingredients facilitate the formation of seemingly stable lanes and ensure the ergodicity of the system.

We report on phenomena observed in planar integrated networks obtained connecting superconducting island by Josephson tunnel junctions. These networks, identifiable as tree-like graphs, have branches consisting of series arrays of Josephson junctions which can be individually current biased and characterized. Both Josephson supercurrents and gap parameters of the arrays embedded in the graph structures display properties significantly different from those of reference arrays fabricated on the same chips and having identical geometrical shape. The temperature and magnetic field dependencies of the Josephson current of the embedded arrays both show a singular behavior when a critical value is reached by the Josephson characteristic energy. The gap parameter of the junctions generating the embedded arrays is higher than that of the junctions forming the reference geometrical arrays., Comment: 18 pages and 6 figures

The process of activation out a one-dimensional potential is investigated systematically in zero and nonzero temperature conditions. The features of the potential are traced through statistical escape out of its wells whose depths are tuned in time by a forcing term. The process is carried out on the damped pendulum system imposing specific initial conditions on the potential variable. While for relatively high values of the dissipation the statistical properties follow a behavior that can be derived from the standard Kramers model, decreasing the dissipation we observe responses/deviations which have regular dependencies on initial conditions, temperature, and loss parameter itself. It is shown that failures of the thermal activation model are originated at low temperatures, and very low dissipation, by the initial conditions and intrinsic, namely T=0, characteristic oscillations of the potential-generated dynamical equation., Comment: 25 pages and 13 Figures

A comprehensive study of the behavior of the Mott insulator Ca_2RuO_4 under electrical current drive is performed by combining two experimental probes: the macroscopic electrical transport and the microscopic X-Ray diffraction. The resistivity, rho, vs electric current density, J, and temperature, T , rho(J,T), resistivity map is drawn. In particular, the meta-stable state, induced between the insulating and the metallic thermodynamic states by current biasing Ca_2RuO_4 single crystals, is investigated. Such an analysis, combined with the study of the resulting RuO_6 octahedra energy levels, reveals that a metallic crystal phase emerges in the meta-stable regime. The peculiar properties of such a phase, coexisting with the well-established orthorhombic insulating and tetragonal metallic phases, allow to explain some of the unconventional and puzzling behaviors observed in the experiments, as a negative differential resistivity.

This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk management, leading to necessary structural properties for the probability distribution. Many mechanisms have been used to show the emergence of fat tails. Here we follow an alternative route, the epistemological one, using counterfactual analysis, and show how nested uncertainty, that is, errors on the error in estimation of parameters, lead to fattailedness of the distribution. The results have relevant implications for forecasting, dealing with model risk and generally all statistical analyses. The more interesting results are as follows: + The forecasting paradox: The future is fatter tailed than the past. Further, out of sample results should be fatter tailed than in-sample ones. + Errors on errors can be explosive or implosive with different consequences. Infinite recursions can be easily dealt with, pending on the structure of the errors. We also present a method to perform counterfactual analysis without the explosion of branching counterfactuals.

In a world with an ever increasing urbanization, governance is investigating innovative solutions to sustain the society evolution. Internet-of-Things promises huge benefits for cities and the proliferation of smart city deployments demonstrates the common acceptance of IoT as basis for many solutions. The city pilots developments occurred in parallel and with different designs thus creating fragmentation of IoT. The European project SynchroniCity aims to synchronize 8 smart cities to establish a shared environment fostering a self-sustained business growth. In this article we present the collaborative methodology and shared efforts spent towards the creation of a common ecosystem for the development of smart city services. Our design evolves around the concept of "atomic services" that implements a single functional block to be composed for full-fledged smart city services. This creates opportunities for diverse stakeholders to participate to a global smart cities market. The methodology and outcome of our efforts will be followed by 10 new cities globally, thus expanding the market range for IoT stakeholders, Comment: 2019 IEEE Global Internet-of-Things Summit (GIoTS)

Understanding crowd mobility behaviors would be a key enabler for crowd management in smart cities, benefiting various sectors such as public safety, tourism and transportation. This article discusses the existing challenges and the recent advances to overcome them and allow sharing information across stakeholders of crowd management through Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. The article proposes the usage of the new federated interoperable semantic IoT platform (FIESTA-IoT), which is considered as "a system of systems". The platform can support various IoT applications for crowd management in smart cities. In particular, the article discusses two integrated IoT systems for crowd mobility: 1) Crowd Mobility Analytics System, 2) Crowd Counting and Location System (from the SmartSantander testbed). Pilot studies are conducted in Gold Coast, Australia and Santander, Spain to fulfill various requirements such as providing online and offline crowd mobility analyses with various sensors in different regions. The analyses provided by these systems are shared across applications in order to provide insights and support crowd management in smart city environments., Comment: This work is published in IEEE Communications Magazine, This work has been partially funded by the Spanish Government (MINECO) under Grant Agreement No. TEC2015-71329-C2-1-R ADVICE project and by the EU Horizon 2020 Programme under Grant Agreements No. 731993 AUTOPILOT, 643943 FIESTA-IoT, and 643275 FESTIVAL projects

We study the pedestrian escape from an obscure corridor using a lattice gas model with two species of particles. One species, called passive, performs a symmetric random walk on the lattice, whereas the second species, called active, is subject to a drift guiding the particles towards the exit. The drift mimics the awareness of some pedestrians of the geometry of the corridor and of the location of the exit. We provide numerical evidence that, in spite of the hard core interaction between particles -- namely, there can be at most one particle of any species per site, -- adding a fraction of active particles in the system enhances the evacuation rate of all particles from the corridor. A similar effect is also observed when looking at the outgoing particle flux, when the system is in contact with an external particle reservoir that induces the onset of a steady state. We interpret this phenomenon as a discrete space counterpart of the drafting effect typically observed in a continuum set--up as the aerodynamic drag experienced by pelotons of competing cyclists., Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures

We have characterized the conductivity of carbon nanotubes (CNT) fibers enriched in semiconducting species as a function of temperature and pulsed laser irradiation of 266 nm wavelength. While at high temperatures the response approaches an Arrhenius law behavior, from room temperature down to 4.2 K the response can be framed, quantitatively, within the predictions of the fluctuation induced tunneling which occurs between the inner fibrils (bundles) of the samples and/or the elementary CNTs constituting the fibers. Laser irradiation induces an enhancement of the conductivity, and analysis of the resulting data confirms the (exponential) dependence of the potential barrier upon temperature as expected from the fluctuation induced tunneling model. A thermal map of the experimental configuration consisting of laser-irradiated fibers is also obtained via COMSOL simulations in order to rule out bare heating phenomena as the background of our experiments. (*) Author, Comment: 13 pages and 7 figures

Morris-Lecar model is arguably the simplest dynamical model that retains both the slow-fast geometry of excitable phase portraits and the physiological interpretation of a conductance-based model. We augment this model with one slow inward current to capture the additional property of bistability between a resting state and a spiking limit cycle for a range of input current. The resulting dynamical system is a core structure for many dynamical phenomena such as slow spiking and bursting. We show how the proposed model combines physiological interpretation and mathematical tractability and we discuss the benefits of the proposed approach with respect to alternative models in the literature., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures

In particle systems subject to a nonuniform drive, particle migration is observed from the driven to the non--driven region and vice--versa, depending on details of the hopping dynamics, leading to apparent violations of Fick's law and of steady--state thermodynamics. We propose and discuss a very basic model in the framework of independent random walkers on a pair of rings, one of which features biased hopping rates, in which this phenomenon is observed and fully explained., Comment: 8 pages, 10 figures

Maneuvering a general 2-trailer with a car-like tractor in backward motion is a task that requires significant skill to master and is unarguably one of the most complicated tasks a truck driver has to perform. This paper presents a path planning and path-following control solution that can be used to automatically plan and execute difficult parking and obstacle avoidance maneuvers by combining backward and forward motion. A lattice-based path planning framework is developed in order to generate kinematically feasible and collision-free paths and a path-following controller is designed to stabilize the lateral and angular path-following error states during path execution. To estimate the vehicle state needed for control, a nonlinear observer is developed which only utilizes information from sensors that are mounted on the car-like tractor, making the system independent of additional trailer sensors. The proposed path planning and path-following control framework is implemented on a full-scale test vehicle and results from simulations and real-world experiments are presented., Comment: Preprint