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Abstract Land managers require information about the ongoing and potential effects of future climate to coordinate responses for ecosystems, species, and human communities at scales that are operationally meaningful. Our study focused on the vulnerability for all upland ecosystem types of Arizona and New Mexico in the southwestern United States. Local vulnerability across the two‐state area was represented by the level of departure for late 21st‐century climate from the characteristic pre‐1990 climate envelope of the ecosystem type at each given location, resulting in a probability surface of climate impacts for the two‐state area and an uncertainty assessment based on agreement in results among multiple global climate models. Though the results varied from one ecosystem type to the next, the majority of lands were forecast as high vulnerability and low uncertainty, reflecting significant agreement among climate model projections for the southwestern United States. We then tested our results in relation to ongoing ecological processes that have both regional and global change implications and discovered significant relationships with wildfire severity, upward tree species recruitment, and the encroachment of scrub into semidesert grassland. The testing helped determine the efficacy of the vulnerability surface, as a product of relatively high spatial and thematic resolution, in supporting local planning and management decisions. Most important, this study links climate and changes in vegetation by ecosystem processes that are already ongoing. The results affirm the value of climate model downscaling and show that this portable approach to correlative modeling has value in determining the location and magnitude of potential climate‐related impacts.

Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adaptation to climate risk are two essential ingredients of climate change policy. Both are needed and co-benefits may exist. Yet, mitigation and adaptation are not usually pursued together. Part of remedying this shortcoming is understanding the relationship between GHG emissions and climate vulnerability reduction and recognizing when and where they trend together. Here, we compare changes in fossil fuel CO2 emissions per capita and in climate vulnerability scores over the past two decades in 179 countries. We use climate vulnerability scores from the well-established ND-GAIN Country Index, a composite metric constructed from thirty-six indicators covering three components of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). We find that 69% of the countries decreased climate vulnerability, while increasing their per capita fossil fuel CO2 emissions. These countries are successfully reducing climate vulnerability but are increasing their GHG emissions and thus failing in mitigation efforts. In contrast, 23% of the countries have been successful in simultaneously reducing per capita CO2 emissions and climate vulnerability. Furthermore, in highly vulnerable countries, increasing CO2 emissions are not correlated with decreasing climate vulnerability. These findings underscore that climate vulnerability reduction may be due only partly to economic development. This finding also changes our prevailing view that increases in CO2 emissions are associated with vulnerability reduction. Finally, examining mitigation and climate-vulnerability reduction by sector, we show that a majority of countries are able to reduce vulnerability in ecosystem services. Those countries and sectors with positive trends provide examples for others to follow, as solutions at the mitigation-climate vulnerability reduction interface are essential for sustainable economic development.

• Experts discussed indicators of agricultural vulnerability in Sweden. • AgroExplore enables interactive exploration and validation of indicators. • Thresholds of agricultural vulnerability indicators are context dependent. • New indicators for agricultural vulnerability are required. • Aggregating data to administrative units is problematic for several indicators. Agriculture is often described as one of the sectors most vulnerable to future climate change, and its vulnerability is commonly assessed through quantitative indices. However, such indices differ significantly depending on their selected indicators, weighting mechanisms, and summarizing methods, often leading to divergent assessments of vulnerability for the same geographic area. The use of generic indicators might also lead to a loss of information about contextual risks and vulnerabilities. This may reduce the perceived usefulness of indices among stakeholders. This study analyses the role of indicators in assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change. It analyses how indices are understood and used through three separate focus group sessions, involving agricultural experts professionally active in south-eastern Sweden. The paper presents how agricultural practitioners perceive a set of common vulnerability indicators, presented through a visualization tool, and their relevance, logic, and applicability to assess and address vulnerability to climate change. The results of this study contribute with perspectives on (i) the relevance and applicability of the commonly used generic indicators for agricultural vulnerability (ii) the assumed correlation of indicators with climate vulnerability and (iii) the identification of missing vulnerability indicators. The study finds that commonly used vulnerability indicators are perceived hard to apply in practice, as definitions and thresholds are often depending on the geographical and temporal scale, as well as the regional context. Additional exposure factors that were identified included extreme events, such as heavy precipitation and external factors such as global food demand and trade-patterns. Further, participants expressed that it is important to include indices that combine effects of multiple climatic changes and in-direct factors, such as policies, regulations and measures. Inherent complexities, context dependencies, and multiple factors should further be included, but entail difficulties in developing suitable indicators. These factors must be addressed by a broader set of qualitative and quantitative indicators, and greater flexibility in the assessment methodology. The interactive vulnerability assessments presented in this paper indicate a need for an integration of quantitative and qualitative aspects and how such indicators could be developed and applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past three decades, seeds banks have emerged as a major strategy for building seed systems resilience to climate change. Often initiated and funded by non-governmental organizations, seeds banks have grown prolifically, but questions remain concerning their long-term sustainability. Despite their precipitous rise, and effectives during initial years, many seed banks cut back on activities or stop altogether once external NGO funding is withdrawn. This rise and fall of seed banks raise three questions worthy of examination: (1) What factors shape the sustainability of community seed banks? (2) Do community seed banks function as they are designed to be? (3) How well do seed banks target farmers based upon true underlying need? Drawing upon insights from feminist political ecology (FPE) and Participatory Geographic Information Systems (PGIS), this paper examines these questions with data collected from drought-prone northern Ghana. The empirical research includes participant-observations; 144 in-depth interviews; participatory geospatial data analysis; gender-disaggregated data validation workshops; and analyses of seed bank inventory, lending, and payment records. Contrary to previous work emphasizing the role of climate variability and crop failure, this paper highlights the centrality of rural politics in the sustainability of seed banks. Specifically, the findings show that the lack of respect for indigenous knowledge, pseudo seed borrowing, and local elite capture, all work together to undermine the sustainability of seed banks. When seed banks do not meet farmers' needs, the paper also demonstrates how farmers covertly resist such projects. Finally, the paper shows how through a repertoire of gender politics, village men undermine seed banks' vision of ensuring equitable and democratic access to seeds. Overall, the paper contributes to existing research by demonstrating how FPE and PGIS could be used in parallel to permit a more rigorous testing of claims of village and gender politics on the ground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate change is affecting agricultural production, particularly in Africa, where agriculture forms the backbone of rural economies. Smallholder farmers in rural areas are vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their marginalised location, low levels of technology, and reliance on rain‐fed agriculture. This conceptual paper finds that adaptation is cross cutting in nature and complex. Hence, it requires an approach that incorporates both policy and investment issues into its planning. This research not only contributes to literature on adaptation strategies but will also provide relevant insight for capacity building on smallholder farmers to avert the ongoing and future climate crisis. Furthermore, it contributes to hitherto limited work on understanding how adaptive capacity is shaped and be sustainable in Zimbabwe. This paper recommends that the government and private sector should disseminate technology that helps farmers adapt to climate change and access to irrigation technology must be a priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change has an impact on health regarding its morbidity and mortality data as well as on the health care system. The connection between climate change and health has many serious consequences. There are determinative socioeconomic inequalities regarding climate vulnerability. The relevant solution of these challenges is an important task for national and local policies. The number, frequency and period of heat waves will increase in Europe as well as in Hungary in the future. Our project is based on this fact, and the main aim of this research was to apply a climate vulnerability model to analyse health risks and public health consequences of heat waves. This study presents the indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and explains the method of climate vulnerability model, too. Using climate vulnerability examination could help us to define regional differences at microregional level, to assign the most vulnerable areas in the country, and to discover typical spatial patterns of climate vulnerability. Summing up, climate vulnerability regarding heat waves has special spatial distribution in Hungary according to the increasing vulnerability among different parts of the country. There are some regions where higher level of exposure goes together with more sensitivity and lower level of adaptive capacity which can result in more or most vulnerability. These regions have special geographical position within Hungary. Stronger climate awareness and improving adaptive conditions will be a priority for making new health care strategies in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Microfinance institutions (MFIs) in Bangladesh provide a variety of financial services to poor households that can help them cope with natural disasters (e.g. floods) and adapt to environmental changes (e.g. increasing soil salinity). However, due to the limited geographic range in which MFI branches can provide their services, households located far from a branch typically do not have access to microfinance. In this study, we measured how spatial accessibility (SA) to microfinance varied across 18 sub-districts (upazilas) of southwest Bangladesh, a region heavily affected by climate-related hazards including flooding and high soil salinity. Our objective was to identify if accessibility to microfinance was negatively affected by climate hazards due to, e.g., higher lending risks in hazard-prone areas. For this, we incorporated geospatial data sets related to flood hazard, soil salinity, population density, and transportation infrastructure as explanatory variables for regression modeling of SA. We tested both ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and geographically-weighted regression (GWR) approaches, and found that GWR was better able to predict SA. The GWR model for the SA measure "distance to nearest branch" had the strongest relationship with the explanatory variables (adjusted R2 = 0.717), and in this model (and four of five other models tested), high flood hazard and high soil salinity were negatively correlated with accessibility to microfinance. To increase microfinance accessibility in these climate hazard-prone areas, additional funding for MFI outreach activities (e.g. utilizing national/international climate change funds), reduction of transaction costs, and further experimentation with adapting/packaging MFI services, may be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts from the observation that development projects that create various forms of environmental injustice in Europe are an integral part of the process of biospheric expulsions, that is of pushing out groups from adequate land, water or air, as described by Saskia Sassen (2014). Apart from the environmental, socio-economic and health-impacts of ecologically destructive projects, there is an added dimension of concern that has been less obvious in the past, but tends to become increasingly pronounced in a warming world. Is it possible that accumulating environmental inequalities and forms of injustice can create new and "unnatural" vulnerabilities to the projected climate change impacts? The fi rst question that we tackle is whether environmental justice confl icts in Europe tend to take place disproportionately in climate hotspot areas, which are geographic spaces with above-average social sensitivity, potential vulnerability, potential social impact, potential environmental impacts or response capacity (ESPON, 2011). The second question concerns the distribution of diff erent characteristics of projects and of their associated confl icts in climate hotspot vs. non-hotspot areas. The fi nal goal is to establish, at a preliminary level, the emergence of a climate edge in Europe, a spatial confi guration in which vulnerability to climate change impacts is shaped by processes of biospheric expulsion, as postulated at a general level by Sassen. For the analysis, the most current data on environmental justice confl icts (444) from the Environmental Justice Atlas and ESPON climate impact projections, mapped on the Climate Adapt platform, are used. The expected result is to provide a preliminary description of the postulated climate edge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate vulnerability can make urban space unhealthy and accentuate existing health (in)justice and (economic) segregation. Drawing on the vulnerability-readiness nexus and measuring health justice (i.e., health poverty, health distribution, and health access) and economic segregation (through indices), we strive to investigate the plausible pathways of the two constructs at the heat risks. Our work, focusing on metropolitan cities in South Korea, addresses the role of heat vulnerability and readiness nexus regarding health justice and economic segregation through correlational analysis and a time-trend comparative approach between 2011 and 2015 (as five year-long effects). Our results show that potential positive links exist between health poverty as a component of health justice and economic segregation. Moreover, climate readiness, as opposed to vulnerability, plays a crucial role in reducing economic segregation in the context of health justice and heat risks. • The role of heat vulnerability and readiness nexus was examined within major cities of Korea. • Potential positive links exist between health poverty and economic segregation. • Climate readiness plays a crucial role in reducing economic segregation in heat risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate impacts on nuclear power plants. • Climate vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plans and spent fuel sites. • Climate adaptation of plants and spent fuel sites. • Dry and wet storage option for spent fuel. Climate adaptation is part of the process our society is using to cope with climate change and the changes that it will bring to our environment over the coming years. Unfortunately, in some 'high-risk' industries (e.g., nuclear) and specifically in some areas such as spent fuel management, climate adaptation has received little attention. In 2016, the total spent fuel inventory was 265, 000 tonnes of heavy metal (HM) in storage and 127, 000 t HM was sent to reprocessing. In general, the spent fuel reduces its radiotoxicity to a natural level after hundreds to thousands of years. This timeframe surpasses that of severe changes that are expected to occur on our planet because of climate change. So, climate adaptation should be considered. As such, a literature review has been performed to acquire knowledge and identify gaps in the literature related to climate adaptation measures in long-term spent fuel storage. For this, a systematic review was performed that included the screening of 693 studies and a full-text analysis (e.g., purpose, methodology, findings, limitations) of 67 studies. Several literature gaps were revealed that included the lack of (1) local climate vulnerability assessment for nuclear power plants, (2) climate adaptation for spent fuel storage (e.g., on-site and centralized facilities (3) climate adaptation measures for long-term storage or final repositories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the increasing influence of international trade on regional land use, this paper presents a comprehensive overview of forest land use across global supply chains by means of embodiment accounting based on EXIOBASE 3 database, with a specific focus on the climate vulnerability and adaptation readiness of supply chain agents. Globally, 2268.3 million hectares (Mha) of forest land was exploited for forestry in 2015, while 30% was associated with export production, mainly sourced from Russia, Canada, Africa, South America and tropical and subtropical Asia-Pacific and linked to the final consumption of developed (e.g. the EU, the USA and Japan) and emerging (e.g. China and India) economies. During 2000–2015, forest land exploited in climate-vulnerable regions rose to 689.4 Mha, contributing over 50% of the overall increase in global forest land exploitation. Forest land use displaced from China and India to these regions increased by 2.6 and 3.3 times, respectively, due to escalating imports from tropics and subtropics (especially Asia-Pacific), where the readiness to take adaptation actions was also low. For the EU and the USA, virtual forest land use sourced from these regions remained large in absolute magnitude despite decreasing import volume. Therefore, transnational mutual efforts are needed to secure local forestry of climate-vulnerable regions, improve the resilience of global supply chains and mitigate negative influence on other sustainable development goals supported by forest ecosystems. • 30% of global forest exploitation was associated with export production in 2015. • Increasing forest land was exploited in climate-vulnerable regions. • China, the EU, the USA, India and Japan were major final consumers. • Russia, Canada and many tropical and subtropical countries were leading exporters. • Transnational governance is needed to improve climate and supply chain resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The over one million agricultural workers in the United States (U.S.) are amongst the populations most vulnerable to the health impacts of extreme heat. Climate change will further increase this vulnerability. Here we estimate the magnitude and spatial patterns of the growing heat exposure and health risk faced by U.S. crop workers and assess the effect of workplace adaptations on mitigating that risk. We find that the average number of days spent working in unsafe conditions will double by mid-century, and, without mitigation, triple by the end of it. Increases in rest time and the availability of climate-controlled recovery areas can eliminate this risk but could affect farm productivity, farm worker earnings, and/or labor costs much more than alternative measures. Safeguarding the health and well-being of U.S. crop workers will therefore require systemic change beyond the worker and workplace level.

This paper deals with the results of the Research Project “METROPOLIS – Integrated and sustainable methods and technologies for resilience and safety in urban systems”, funded under PONREC 2007-2013. Among all the results of the work, the paper is focused on the development of a model to measure climate vulnerability in urban areas. The application of the model provides the assessment of impacts and the subsequent planning of corrective actions to increase building and urban resilience by means of technological retrofitting. The testing of the model for heat waves and pluvial flooding has been implemented in the urban system of Naples City which has been divided into the physical subsystem and the population subsystem.

Understanding the adaptive potential of populations and species is pivotal for minimizing the loss of biodiversity in this era of rapid climate change. Adaptive potential has been estimated in various ways, including based on levels of standing genetic variation, presence of potentially beneficial alleles, and/or the severity of environmental change. Kokanee salmon, the non-migratory ecotype of sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ), is culturally and economically important and has already been impacted by the effects of climate change. To assess its climate vulnerability moving forward, we integrated analyses of standing genetic variation, genotype-environment associations, and climate modeling based on sequence and structural genomic variation from 224 whole genomes sampled from 22 lakes in British Columbia and Yukon (Canada). We found that variables for extreme temperatures, particularly warmer temperatures, had the most pervasive signature of selection in the genome and were the strongest predictors of levels of standing variation and of putatively adaptive genomic variation, both sequence and structural. Genomic offset estimates, a measure of climate vulnerability, were significantly correlated with higher increases in extreme warm temperatures, further highlighting the risk of summer heat waves that are predicted to increase in frequency in the future. Levels of standing genetic variation, an important metric for population viability and resilience, were not correlated with genomic offset. Nonetheless, our combined approach highlights the importance of integrating different sources of information and genomic data to formulate more comprehensive and accurate predictions on the vulnerability of populations and species to future climate change., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (© 2023 The Authors. Evolutionary Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Highlights • Research on socioeconomic experiences of drought identifies new vulnerabilities. • Drought affects employment, health, water and food security of farmworkers. • Drought adaptation in agriculture can increase vulnerability of farmworkers. • Increased representation of farmworkers is needed in drought planning. Abstract The vulnerability of food and agricultural systems to climate variability and change is extensively studied. However, the vulnerability of agricultural labor is largely ignored in climate vulnerability and adaptation studies, especially in the context of developed countries. This research examines the drought vulnerability of farmworkers both in the fields and in their communities by analyzing how changes in water resources and agricultural practices impact socioeconomic drought. A combination of surveys and semi-structured interviews with farmworkers, farmers, and social service providers in California's San Joaquin Valley is used to identify the impacts of drought on agricultural labor, water security, food security, and health. Findings demonstrate that drought impacts and vulnerabilities are multi-scalar and uneven. Agricultural drought adaptations, including increase in groundwater pumping and changes in crops, reshapes the vulnerability of farmworkers and rural communities. There is a need for continued interdisciplinary research on the socioeconomic dimensions of drought as well as increased representation of needs and vulnerabilities of farmworkers and rural communities in drought and climate change adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is not only a major threat to biodiversity, it is also a big challenge to the development of conservation strategies. Scientists and practitioners need to select or avoid areas at greatest risk for species protection, i.e., acting in a proactive or a reactive manner. This proactive/reactive dichotomy takes a particular formulation under the likely changes in climate. Selecting for low-risk areas (usually referred to as climate refugia) is supposed to protect more species with a greater guarantee of their long-term persistence. As a consequence, populations at greatest risk are left unprotected and probably committed to extinction. On the other hand, managing species in high-risk areas is more expensive than setting aside areas of climate refugia and encompasses a set of uncertainties, which makes highly-threatened species more costly and difficult to save. Here, we combine ecological niche models and metrics of climate change to develop spatial conservation schemes for mammals in the Brazilian Amazon. These schemes efficiently identify networks of high-risk and refugia priority areas within species current and future distributions, while complementing the protection already achieved by the Amazon’s network of protected areas (PAs). We found that, on average, 25% of mammal distribution is already represented in the established network of PAs. Also, 26% of high-risk and 17% of refugia priority areas overlap with indigenous lands. In addition, species distributions were found mostly in high-risk, compared to in refugia priority areas. We highlight that the strategy to be employed does not necessarily should be binary and a mix of both strategies would guarantee the protection of a larger number of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has altered global rainfall amounts and seasonality. Rainfed crops are particularly dependent on foreseeable rainfall, thus yields of maize, wheat and sorghum have decreased globally. Rainfed maize is the cornerstone of the agriculture in Mexico and the nutrition base of as many as twenty million people. Despite its relevance, the risk that climate change represents for this economic activity has not been studied in our country. We evaluated the link between rainfall variability and maize yields in Mexico across three different time periods: the present, the past 30 years and the remainder of this century (future) with RCPs scenarios. We found that rainfed agriculture was distributed as a function of the dry-season length, occurring in areas with a 4–9 months dry season, thus climate change may alter not only agricultural yields, but also the spatial distribution of land uses. There was a linear correlation (r = 0.45) between mean annual precipitation and rainfed maize production nationally for the period 1980–2012. The correlation was stronger (r = 0.91) during 2005–2012 when high-resolution data were available for the analysis. Correlation values were not homogeneously distributed within the country, although the minimum correlation was 0.35. In the future scenarios, yields were predicted to either not change or to decrease by as much as 10%. The strongest negative impacts were predicted across the Northeast and the South of the country, where yields declined by up to 30% in all scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the results of the Research Project "METROPOLIS - Integrated and sustainable methods and technologies for resilience and safety in urban systems", funded under PONREC 2007-2013. Among all the results of the work, the paper is focused on the development of a model to measure climate vulnerability in urban areas. The application of the model provides the assessment of impacts and the subsequent planning of corrective actions to increase building and urban resilience by means of technological retrofitting. The testing of the model for heat waves and pluvial flooding has been implemented in the urban system of Naples City which has been divided into the physical subsystem and the population subsystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behind the dynamic growth of this coastal city, Semarang have to deal with the issue of global climate change such as erotion, flood, land subsidence, sea level rise and ecosystem degradation. Based on that, we combined field data from 100 households in 14 sub-districts of Semarang coastal communities with secondary data to collect data on biophysical and sosio-economic impacts of climate variability, secure tenure index, sosio-demographic profile, livelihood, education level, institutional, livelihood strategy, and adaptation technology. The results of analysis suggest that 3 among 14 districts of Semarang coastal areas had very high level of climate vulnerability. They were Mangkang Wetan, Bandarharjo, and Tanjung Mas districts. Mangkang Wetan was more vulnerable than the other sub-district particularly in relation to social-demographic profile, livelihood, institutional, and livelihood strategy. While Bandarharjo was more vulnerable in relation to biophysical and sosio-economic impacts of climate variability, social-demographic profile, and secure tenure index. Then Tanjung Mas was more vulnerable in terms of biophysical and sosio-economic impacts of climate variability, livelihood strategy, and adaptation technology. In this regard, this approach may be used to facilitate climate vulnerability by minimize contributing factors of vulnerability or enhance the communities ability to cope with the impacts of climate change.

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics 'akeke'e ( Loxops caeruleirostris) and 'akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua'i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of 'akeke'e and 'akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua'i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary A rapidly growing body of research examines the ways in which climatic variability influences economic and societal outcomes. This study investigates how weather shocks triggered social distress in British colonial Africa. Further, it intervenes in a long-standing and unsettled debate concerning the effects of agricultural commercialization on the abilities of rural communities to cope with exogenous shocks. We collect qualitative evidence from annual administrative records to explore the mechanisms linking weather extremes to harvest failures and social distress. We also conduct econometric testing on a novel panel dataset of 143 administrative districts across west, south-central, and east Africa in the Interwar Era (1920–39). Our findings are twofold. First, we find robust evidence that rainfall anomalies (both drought and excessive precipitation) are associated with spikes in imprisonment (our proxy for social distress). We argue that the key causal pathway is the loss of agricultural income, which results in higher imprisonment for theft, unrest, debt, and tax default. Second, we find that the impact of weather shocks on distress is partially mitigated by the cultivation of export crops. Our findings suggest that, even in the British colonial context, smallholder export crop cultivation led to higher private incomes as well as greater public investment. Our findings speak to a topic of considerable urgency today as the process of global climate change accelerates, generating more severe and unpredictable climatic extremes. An increased understanding and identification of adaptive and mitigating factors would assist in targeting policy interventions and designing adaptive institutions to support vulnerable rural societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nordic agriculture must adapt to climate change to reduce vulnerability and exploit potential opportunities. Integrated assessments can identify and quantify vulnerability in order to recognize these adaptation needs. This study presents a geographic visualization approach to support the interactive assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change. We have identified requirements for increased transparency and reflexivity in vulnerability assessments, arguing that these can be met by geographic visualization. A conceptual framework to support the integration of geographic visualization for vulnerability assessments has been designed and applied for the development of AgroExplore, an interactive tool for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change in Sweden. To open up the black box of composite vulnerability indices, AgroExplore enables the user to select, weight, and classify relevant indicators into sub-indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This enables the exploration of underlying indicators and factors determining vulnerability in Nordic agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The observed and predicted changes in climate, as well as the growth in urban population, are creating severe stress on existing water resources in South Korea. By the importation of agricultural products from more water-rich countries through the virtual water concept, a country could save local water resources for other important uses. However, these imports from other countries could lead to certain vulnerabilities in the importing country derived from climate change. Therefore, through the application of the virtual water concept and the climate vulnerability index ((CVI) - measure of a country's vulnerability to indirect climate impacts), this study assessed the implication of virtual water imports and climate change through food trade, on the water, land and food security status of South Korea over the period of 2000–2017. The results showed that significant amounts of national water and land was saved through the importation of major upland crops. Virtual water imports increased significantly over time, rising from 16.2 Bm3 in 2000 to 16.5, 17.4, and 20.7 Bm3 in 2005, 2011, and 2017 respectively, with the USA, China, Australia, Brazil and Canada being the major exporters to South Korea. The study also revealed high CVI values for the oils and grains category of imported food, implying the high vulnerability of South Korea to climate change effects resulting from the import of these crops. The quantitative impacts and structural changes in virtual water trade, as well as the link between climate change, food security, international trade, and domestic water consumption could be evaluated for the sustainable management and allocation of resources. This study successfully identified and quantified the status of food trade and its environmental implications in the study area, providing insight into a better allocation of locally available resources. • South Korea's food trade is analyzed using the virtual water concept and climate vulnerability index. • Significant amounts of national water and land was saved through the importation of major upland crops. • Virtual water imports increased significantly between 2000 and 2017. • South Korea is more exposed to climate change effects from the imports of oils and grains. • The study can aid the development of effective policies that curb water stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The informal economy is crucial for making cities function, and it provides the main means of income for a significant proportion of all workers globally. At the same time, informal workers are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with higher temperatures and more intense weather events causing direct physical harm and contributing to ill-health. This paper analyzes research from three cities in India and Zimbabwe (Indore, Harare, and Masvingo) to describe the vulnerability of informal workers in several sectors. It highlights the ways in which the direct impacts of climate change are compounded by other factors, including low-quality living conditions and the absence of provision for Occupational Health and Safety (OHS). Informal workers in the three cities have adopted a range of responses to reduce risk, and there are some recent inclusive engagements with local officials to enhance living and working conditions. However, key interventions such as expanding access to social protection (which has important potential to foster climate resilience) often fail to reach the most vulnerable urban informal workers. We conclude with recommendations and an agenda for more equitable policy and practice that can support multiple benefits for informal workers' health, livelihoods, and climate resilience in urban areas. • The informal economy provides key functions in cities, but informal workers are vulnerable to several climate change impacts • In the Zimbabwe survey (N=418), 56% of waste-pickers said heatwaves reduced their worktimes and efficiency; heatwaves led to water unavailability for 76% of urban farmers • Demand-side measures and inclusive partnerships with local governments can help address informal workers' vulnerabilities • Expanded access to social protection (e.g., healthcare, food subsidies) can strongly enhance these workers' climate resilience [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the billion-dollar global illegal wildlife trade, rosewoods have been the world's most trafficked wild product since 2005. Dalbergia cochinchinensis and Dalbergia oliveri are the most sought-after rosewoods in the Greater Mekong Subregion. They are exposed to significant genetic risks and the lack of knowledge on their adaptability limits the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Here, we present genome assemblies and range-wide genomic scans of adaptive variation, together with predictions of genomic offset to climate change. Adaptive genomic variation was differentially associated with temperature and precipitation-related variables between the species, although their natural ranges overlap. The findings are consistent with differences in pioneering ability and in drought tolerance. We predict their genomic offsets will increase over time and with increasing carbon emission pathway but at a faster pace in D. cochinchinensis than in D. oliveri . These results and the distinct gene-environment association in the eastern coastal edge of Vietnam suggest species-specific conservation actions: germplasm representation across the range in D. cochinchinensis and focused on hotspots of genomic offset in D. oliveri . We translated our genomic models into a seed source matching application, seedeR , to rapidly inform restoration efforts. Our ecological genomic research uncovering contrasting selection forces acting in sympatric rosewoods is of relevance to conserving tropical trees globally and combating risks from climate change.

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract There are more than 580 natural areas in Oregon and Washington managed by 20 federal, state, local, and private agencies and organizations. This natural areas network is unparalleled in its representation of the diverse ecosystems found in the Pacific Northwest, and could prove useful for monitoring long‐term ecological responses to climate change. Our objectives were to (1) evaluate potential effects of climate change on these natural areas and (2) develop strategies for selecting and prioritizing sites for long‐term monitoring. Bioclimatic and Random Forest modeling were used to identify subsets of natural areas to prioritize for long‐term monitoring efforts based on the current and projected (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) outputs from 13 future climate models. Projection consensus suggest some of the largest effects of climate change on natural areas may be the result of a substantial range increase in suitable climate for warmer‐adapted forest types coupled with a reduction in habitat for cooler‐adapted forest types. We identify four strategies that could be used for prioritizing sites and help manage and protect biodiversity in the Pacific Northwest, especially given uncertainty over climate change effects.