Search

Purpose Factors contributing to early mortality after initiation of treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer are poorly understood. Materials and Methods Data from 22,654 patients enrolled in 28 randomized phase III trials contained in the ARCAD (Aide et Recherche en Cancérologie Digestive) database were pooled. Multivariable logistic regression models for 30-, 60-, and 90-day mortality were constructed, including clinically and statistically significant patient and disease factors and interaction terms. A calculator (nomogram) for 90-day mortality was developed and validated internally using bootstrapping methods and externally using a 10% random holdout sample from each trial. The impact of early progression on the likelihood of survival to 90 days was examined with time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Results Mortality rates were 1.4% at 30 days, 3.4% at 60 days, and 5.5% at 90 days. Among baseline factors, advanced age, lower body mass index, poorer performance status, increased number of metastatic sites, BRAF mutant status, and several laboratory parameters were associated with increased likelihood of early mortality. A multivariable model for 90-day mortality showed strong internal discrimination (C-index, 0.77) and good calibration across risk groups as well as accurate predictions in the external validation set, both overall and within patient subgroups. Conclusion A validated clinical nomogram has been developed to quantify the risk of early death for individual patients during initial treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer. This tool may be used for patient eligibility assessment or risk stratification in future clinical trials and to identify patients requiring more or less aggressive therapy and additional supportive measures during and after treatment.

Objective: To evaluate nonpublication rates among trials of new successful and unsuccessful neurological drugs., Methods: "Licensed" drugs consisted of all novel agents receiving US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensure 2005-2012 inclusive in seven neurological disorders. "Stalled" drugs included all experimental agents tested in the same domains that had at least one completed phase III trial in the same time frame, but failed to receive FDA approval. Trials of these drugs were included in our sample if their primary outcome collection occurred before October 1, 2010. We determined the publication status of eligible trials using searches of clinicaltrials.gov, Google Scholar, PubMed, Embase, sponsor websites, and direct electronic query of trial contacts and sponsors. The primary outcome was time to journal publication (or results reporting in other media) after study completion., Results: The adjusted hazard ratio for publication was 1.79 (95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.67) in favor of licensed drugs. Based on the criteria for nonpublication in this report, 14,092 and 33,882 volunteers participated in unpublished trials of licensed and stalled neurological drugs, respectively. Result data were not publicly available in any form for 10% (16 of 163) and 46% (94 of 203) of trials of licensed and stalled drugs, respectively., Interpretation: Results of trials for stalled drugs are heavily under-reported. This deprives research and care communities of evidence about pathophysiology, drug class effects, and the value of surrogate endpoints in trials. Ann Neurol 2017;81:782-789., (© 2017 American Neurological Association.)

Multimodal analgesia constitutes a common strategy in pain management. A tramadol hydrochloride 75 mg/dexketoprofen 25 mg oral fixed combination (TRAM/DKP 75 mg/25 mg) has been recently registered and released in Europe for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute pain. This paper provides additional analyses on the results of two phase III clinical trials (DEX-TRA-04 and DEX-TRA-05) on postoperative pain to document its sustained effect. The analysis was applied to a modified intention-to-treat population (mITT, n = 933) of patients undergoing active treatment from the first dose, to assess the sustained effect of TRAM/DKP 75 mg/25 mg on pain intensity (PI-VAS 0-100) over 56 h from first drug intake. The superior analgesic effect of TRAM/DKP 75 mg/25 mg over 56 h in terms of difference in PI-VAS (mean [SE]) was shown for DEX-TRA-04 (-11.0 [0.55] over dexketoprofen 25 mg and -9.1 [0.55] over tramadol 100 mg, P ≤ 0.0001) and for DEX-TRA-05 (-10.4 [0.51] over dexketoprofen 25 mg and -8.3 [0.51] over tramadol 100 mg, P ≤ 0.0001). The statistical analysis performed on data coming from both studies confirms the superior sustained analgesia of TRAM/DKP 75 mg/25 mg over tramadol 100 mg and dexketoprofen 25 mg. These results are consistent with the previously published data obtained on the ITT population and strongly support the role of this oral fixed-dose combination in the treatment of moderate-to-severe acute pain., (Copyright 2017 Clarivate Analytics.)

It is very challenging to estimate the comparative treatment effect between a treatment therapy and a control therapy on overall survival in the presence of treatment crossover, switch to an alternative non-study therapy, and non-random patient dropout. Existing methods (e.g., intent-to-treat and per-protocol) are known to be biased. We proposed two new estimators to address these analytical challenges and evaluated their performance via a comprehensive simulation study. The new estimators were constructed by combining an enhanced rank-preserving structural failure time model and the inverse probability censoring weighting approach. In the simulation study, we assessed and compared the performance of the two new estimators with four estimators from existing methods. The simulation results show that the new estimators have much better performance in almost all considered settings compared with the existing estimators. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

In many cohort studies, time to events such as disease recurrence is recorded in an interval-censored format. An important objective is to predict patient outcomes. Clinicians are interested in predictive covariates. Prediction rules based on the receiver operating characteristic curve alone are not related to the survival endpoint. We propose a model evaluation strategy to leverage the predictive accuracy based on negative predictive functions. Our proposed method makes very few assumptions and only requires a working model to obtain the regression coefficients. A nonparametric estimate of the predictive accuracy provides a simple and flexible approach for model evaluation to interval-censored survival outcomes. The implementation effort is minimal, therefore this method has an increased potential for immediate use in biomedical data analyses. Simulation studies and a breast cancer trial example further illustrate the practical advantages of this approach.

Objectives: This study aims to comprehensively assess the publication of clinical trial results and factors associated with their publication., Study Design and Setting: Phase II and III trials of advanced breast cancer registered on ClinicalTrials.gov between October 1, 2000, and September 30, 2012, were identified. Publications were searched by using PubMed and reviewing those listed on the registry site. The main outcomes were publication rate, public availability of results, and time to publication., Results: Of 352 phase II and 74 phase III trials, 12.5% and 31.1% were published, whereas 46.9% and 58.1% had publicly available results, respectively. Compared to those with significant results, studies with nonsignificant results had delays in time to publication (P < 0.001). Even after adjusting for funding source and phase type, the significance of study outcomes was a significant factor that affected time to publication (hazard ratio = 6.02; 95% confidence interval: 3.59, 10.07; P < 0.001), with trials with significant outcomes taking less time to publish than those with nonsignificant outcomes., Conclusion: Underreporting of results and nonpublication or delays in the publication of negative results were identified in registered trials of advanced breast cancer. Thus, further initiatives appear necessary to urgently address such publication bias., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Prognosis of advanced pancreatic cancer is dismal and the novel targeted therapies, albeit successfully used to treat many advanced tumors, have shown modest results. We performed a meta-analysis in order to quantify the effect size on survival of adding targeted therapy to single agent gemcitabine., Methods: Randomized phase III trials comparing gemcitabine mono-therapy versus gemcitabine plus a targeted agent in first-line treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer designed on survival as primary outcome were selected. Search was done through Medline and the registry of the NIH. Keywords used for searching were 'pancreas', 'pancreatic', 'gemcitabine'. Study quality was assessed with MERGE criteria. Findings were depicted in classical Forest plots. Publication bias was evaluated by the construction of funnel plot., Results: Nine studies met the meta-analysis inclusion criteria including 4564 patients. The target therapies were: erlotinib, cetuximab, rigosertib, elpamotide, bevacizumab, aflibercept, axitinib, masitinib and ganitumab. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity among the nine trials (p = 0.77). The hazard ratio (HR) of the pooled analysis was 0.998 (CI 95%: 0.932-1.068). Subgroup meta-analysis was also performed in anti-EGFR and anti-angiogenesis trials: the pooled HR were 0.94 (CI 95%: 0.705-1.175) and 1.055 (CI 95%: 0.913-1.197), respectively., Conclusions: The present meta-analysis does not show significant improvements in survival for targeted drugs in advanced pancreatic cancer. The possible reason of these results could be linked to the biology of pancreatic cancer as well as to the absence of predictive factors.

Aim: The aim of the current study was to characterize the population pharmacokinetics of a triple direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimen (3D) (ombitasvir, paritaprevir-ritonavir and dasabuvir) and adjunctive ribavirin, and estimate covariate effects in a broad spectrum of subjects with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 infection., Methods: Pharmacokinetic data from six phase III studies and one phase II study in subjects receiving the currently approved doses of the 3D ± ribavirin regimen for treating HCV genotype 1 infection for 12 weeks or 24 weeks were characterized using separate population pharmacokinetic models, built using each component of the regimen from nonlinear mixed-effects methodology in NONMEM 7.3. In the models, demographic and clinical covariates were tested. Models were assessed via goodness-of-fit plots, visual predictive checks and bootstrap evaluations., Results: The population pharmacokinetic models for each component of the 3D ± ribavirin regimen (DAAs and ritonavir, n = 2348) and ribavirin (n = 1841) adequately described their respective plasma concentration-time data. Model parameter estimates were precise and robust, and all models showed good predictive ability. Significant covariate effects associated with apparent clearance and volume of distribution included age, body weight, gender, cirrhosis, HCV subtype, opioid or antidiabetic agent use, and creatinine clearance., Conclusion: The population pharmacokinetics of the 3D ± ribavirin regimen components in HCV-infected patients were characterized using phase II and III HCV clinical trial data. Although several statistically significant covariates were identified, their effects were modest and not clinically meaningful to necessitate dose adjustments for any component of the 3D regimen., (© 2016 The British Pharmacological Society.)

The log-rank test is a cornerstone of phase III oncology clinical trials. However, there are at least three different mathematical procedures that can be named the log-rank test and two of them are widely used by commercial statistical programs. Consequently, different P values can be obtained. In the case of a borderline statistical significance, this can mean the difference between the evidence (significant P value) and merely an observation. Since all three methods can be reported under the same name, space for possible data manipulation occurs. This should be of a particular concern in a drug regulatory context. Randomized clinical trials with borderline significant results should perhaps be required to report P values calculated by all three methods, in order to properly evaluate drug efficacy. An interactive MS Excel spreadsheet that uses all three logrank test variants is prepared as a supplementary file accompanying this article. Association of high grade of bone marrow fibrosis with poor outcome in patients with myelofibrosis is used as an example., Competing Interests: None declared.

Aims: Evaluate efficacy and hypoglycaemia according to concomitant oral antidiabetes drug (OAD) in people with type 2 diabetes initiating insulin glargine 100U/mL (Gla-100) or neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin once daily., Methods: Four studies (target fasting plasma glucose [FPG] ⩽100mg/dL [⩽5.6mmol/L]; duration ⩾24weeks) were included. Standardised data from 2091 subjects (Gla-100, n=1024; NPH insulin, n=1067) were analysed. Endpoints included glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and FPG change, glycaemic target achievement, hypoglycaemia, weight change, and insulin dose., Results: Mean HbA1c and FPG reductions were similar with Gla-100 and NPH insulin regardless of concomitant OAD (P=0.184 and P=0.553, respectively) and similar proportions of subjects achieved HbA1c <7.0% (P=0.603). There was a trend for more subjects treated with Gla-100 achieving FPG ⩽100mg/dL versus NPH insulin (relative risk [RR] 1.09 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-1.23]; P=0.135). Plasma glucose confirmed (<70mg/dL) overall and nocturnal hypoglycaemia incidences and rates were lower with Gla-100 versus NPH insulin (overall RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.87-1.00]; P=0.041; nocturnal RR 0.73 [95% CI 0.65-0.83]; P<0.001). After 24weeks, weight gain and insulin doses were higher with Gla-100 versus NPH insulin (2.7kg vs 2.3kg, P=0.009 and 0.42U/kg vs 0.39U/kg; P=0.003, respectively). Insulin doses were higher when either insulin was added to sulfonylurea alone., Conclusions: Pooled results from treat-to-target trials in insulin-naïve people with type 2 diabetes demonstrate a significantly lower overall and nocturnal hypoglycaemia risk across different plasma glucose definitions with Gla-100 versus NPH insulin at similar glycaemic control. OAD therapy co-administered with Gla-100 or NPH insulin impacts glycaemic control and overall nocturnal hypoglycaemia risk., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials have attracted increasing attention recently. They mainly use Bayesian response adaptive randomization (RAR) designs. There has been little research into seamless clinical trials using frequentist RAR designs because of the difficulty in performing valid statistical inference following this procedure. The well-designed frequentist RAR designs can target theoretically optimal allocation proportions, and they have explicit asymptotic results. In this paper, we study the asymptotic properties of frequentist RAR designs with adjusted target allocation proportions, and investigate statistical inference for this procedure. The properties of the proposed design provide an important theoretical foundation for advanced seamless clinical trials. Our numerical studies demonstrate that the design is ethical and efficient.

Nivolumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody that inhibits programmed death-1 activation. The clinical pharmacology profile of nivolumab was analyzed by a population pharmacokinetics model that assessed covariate effects on nivolumab concentrations in 1,895 patients who received 0.3-10.0 mg/kg nivolumab in 11 clinical trials. Nivolumab pharmacokinetics is linear with a time-varying clearance. A full covariate model was developed to assess covariate effects on pharmacokinetic parameters. Nivolumab clearance and volume of distribution increase with body weight. The final model included the effects of baseline performance status (PS), baseline body weight, and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), sex, and race on clearance, and effects of baseline body weight and sex on volume of distribution in the central compartment. Sex, PS, baseline eGFR, age, race, baseline lactate dehydrogenase, mild hepatic impairment, tumor type, tumor burden, and programmed death ligand-1 expression had a significant but not clinically relevant (<20%) effect on nivolumab clearance., (© 2016 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

To inform the benefit-risk assessment of nivolumab in patients with advanced melanoma, analyses of efficacy and safety exposure-response (E-R) relationships were conducted with data from patients with advanced melanoma enrolled in two clinical studies (phase I and phase III) who received nivolumab 0.1-10.0 mg/kg every 2 weeks. E-R efficacy analyses were performed by relating the nivolumab time-averaged concentration after the first dose (C avg1 ) to two endpoints: RECIST objective response (OR) and overall survival (OS). E-R safety analyses characterized the relationship between nivolumab C avg1 and the hazard of all-causality adverse events leading to discontinuation or death (AE-DC/D). Nivolumab exposure represented by C avg1 was not a significant predictor of OR, OS, or the hazard of AE-DC/D. E-R efficacy and safety relationships were relatively flat over the exposure range., (© 2016 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Randomized Phase III clinical trials serve as the gold-standard for the evaluation of the efficacy of a medical intervention. Although research and development in earlier stages together with rigorous statistical examination assure a small probability of false positive for a given trial, it is unclear how many false positives were generated from the large number of randomized Phase III trials from the biopharmaceutical industry in the United States. The proportion of comparisons in Phase III trials where the medical intervention has null or negative efficacy, or proportion of null or negative (PNN), is at the central position for the estimation and control of the number of false positives. We seek to estimate PNN using a new Bayesian deconvolution method. Using data from clinicaltrials.gov and other data sources, we identified 1393 trials completed in 2008-2012 that meet our study entry criteria, which are dominated by trials on drugs for treatment purpose. Among the 1221 trials with results available on the selected comparisons, 789 (64.6%) show statistically significant superiority of the intervention, with 561 (45.9%) having a two-sided p-value less than 0.001. The PNN is estimated to be no more than 7-9%. Based on the PNN, we estimated that 18-22% of the trials have at least one comparison with null or negative efficacy, leading to an expectation of no more than 6-8 trials with at least one false positive comparison over a 5-year period.

Little research has been conducted on the statistical properties of composite measures comprising linear combinations of continuous component scales. We assessed the quantitative relationship between the composites and their individual components regarding their abilities to detect treatment effects. In particular, we developed the mathematical derivation of the treatment effect size of a continuous composite in relation to the treatment effect sizes of its components and proved multiple properties of the composite. We demonstrated that the treatment effect size of a composite is greater than the minimum treatment effect size of its components and that above certain thresholds of correlations of components and ratios of component effect sizes, the composite may outperform its components. Examples from Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical studies of solanezumab and donepezil using the composite Integrated AD Rating Scale (iADRS) and its components, the AD Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog) and AD Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living inventory, instrumental items (ADCS-iADL) were consistent with the theoretical statistical properties. The understanding of the quantitative relationships between continuous composites and their components will be useful in clinical trial design and the development of new scales and composites across therapeutic areas.

Pembrolizumab, a potent antibody against programmed death 1 (PD-1) receptor, has shown robust antitumor activity and manageable safety in patients with advanced solid tumors. Its pharmacokinetic (PK) properties were analyzed with population PK modeling using pooled data from the KEYNOTE-001, -002, and -006 studies of patients with advanced melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and other solid tumor types. Pembrolizumab clearance was low and the volume of distribution small, as is typical for therapeutic antibodies. Identified effects of sex, baseline Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, measures of renal and hepatic function, tumor type and burden, and prior ipilimumab treatment on pembrolizumab exposure were modest and lacked clinical significance. Furthermore, simulations demonstrated the model has robust power to detect clinically relevant covariate effects on clearance. These results support the use of the approved pembrolizumab dose of 2 mg/kg every 3 weeks without dose adjustment in a variety of patient subpopulations., (© 2016 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Introduction: To analyze the efficacy and safety of empagliflozin combined with other oral hypoglycemic agents in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus., Methods: Pooled analysis of three phase III trials in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (n=1,801) who received placebo or empagliflozin 10 or 25mg once daily for 24 weeks, in combination with metformin, metformin+sulphonylurea or pioglitazone ± metformin., Results: Empagliflozin significantly decreased HbA1c (adjusted mean reduction vs placebo with empagliflozin 10mg: -0.58% [95% CI: -0.66; -0.49]; P<.0001, and with empagliflozin 25mg: -0.62% [95% CI: -0.70; -0.53], P<.0001), weight (adjusted mean reduction vs placebo with empagliflozin 10mg: -1.77kg [95% CI: -2.05; -1.48]; P<.0001, and with empagliflozin 25mg: -1.96kg [95% CI: -2.24; -1.67], P<.0001), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP). Adverse effect rates were 64% with placebo, 63.9% with empagliflozin 10mg, and 60.9% with empagliflozin 25mg. Documented episodes of hypoglycemia (≤70mg/dL and/or requiring care) occurred in 3.9% of patients with placebo, 6.9% of patients with empagliflozin 10mg, and 5.3% of patients with empagliflozin 25mg. Urinary tract infections developed in 9.4% of patients with placebo, 10.2% of patients with empagliflozin 10mg, and 8.3% of patients with empagliflozin 25mg. Genital infections were reported in 1.0% of patients with placebo, 4.6% of patients with empagliflozin 10mg, and 3.5% of patients with empagliflozin 25mg., Conclusions: Empagliflozin combined with other oral treatments decreased HbA1c, body weight, and SBP/DBP as compared to placebo, with a good safety and tolerability profile., (Copyright © 2016 SEEN. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)

Clinical trials are critical to improve AML treatment. It remains, however, unclear if clinical trial participation per se affects prognosis and to what extent the patients selected for trials differ from those of patients receiving intensive therapy off-trial.We conducted a population-based cohort study of newly diagnosed Danish AML patients treated with intensive chemotherapy between 2000-2013. We estimated accrual rates and compared characteristics, complete remission (CR) rates, and relative risks (RRs) of death at 90-day, 1-year, and 3-years in clinical trial patients to patients treated off-trial.Of 867 patients, 58.3% (n = 504) were included in a clinical trial. Accrual rates were similar across age groups (p = 0.55). Patients with poor performance status, comorbidity, therapy-related and secondary AML were less likely to be enrolled in trials. CR rates were 80.2% in trial-patients versus 68.6% in patients treated off- trial. Also, trial-patients had superior survival at 1-year; 72%, vs. 54% (adjusted RR of death 1.28(CI = 1.06-1.54)), and at 3 years; 45% vs. 29% (adjusted RR 1.14(CI = 1.03-1.26)) compared to patients treated off-trial.Despite high accrual rates, patients enrolled in clinical trials had a favorable prognostic profile and a better survival than patients treated off-trial. In conclusion, all trial results should be extrapolated with caution and population-based studies of "real world patients" have a prominent role in examining the prognosis of AML.

Aim of the Study: To evaluate the efficacy of rasagiline versus placebo in a pooled population of patients with early Parkinson's disease (PD)., Materials and Methods: TEMPO and ADAGIO were Phase III studies that evaluated the symptomatic efficacy of rasagiline versus placebo in patients with early PD. This meta-analysis included Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) observations from weeks 12, 24 and 36 in ADAGIO and from weeks 14 and 26 in TEMPO; TEMPO visits were recoded to weeks 12 and 24, respectively. The present analysis includes all patients who received rasagiline 1 mg/day, 2 mg/day or placebo, and had ≥1 post-baseline observations and a subgroup of patients whose baseline UPDRS Total scores were ≥27 (Upper Quartile population). Change from baseline in UPDRS scores were evaluated using mixed models repeated measures analyses., Results: Of the 1578 patients randomized to the two studies, 1546 patients met criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Effects on UPDRS Total, motor and activities of daily living scores were significantly better for both doses of rasagiline compared with placebo at all time periods. The Upper Quartile population included 402 patients with a UPDRS Total score ≥27 at baseline. These patients generally demonstrated a larger magnitude of treatment effect than was seen in the full population., Conclusions: This meta-analysis confirms the efficacy of rasagiline monotherapy over 36 weeks. Although TEMPO and ADAGIO are considered studies of "very early" PD, both contained a sizeable pool of patients with more severe disease. In addition, the meta-analysis showed a larger magnitude of effect in patients with more severe baseline disease.

Background: Little is known about the extent of selective publication in contemporary oncology randomised controlled trials (RCTs) worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the rates of publication and timely publication (within 24 months) for contemporary oncology RCTs from all over the world. We also investigated the trial characteristics associated with publication and timely publication., Patients and Methods: We identified all phase III oncology RCTs registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with a primary completion date between January 2008 and December 2012. We searched PubMed and EMBASE to identify publications. The final search date was 31 December 2015. Our primary outcome measure was the time to publication from the primary completion date to the date of primary publication in a peer-reviewed journal., Results: We identified 598 completed oncology RCTs; overall, 398 (66.6%) had been published. For published trials, the median time to publication was 25 months (interquartile range, 16-37 months). Only 192 trials (32.1%) were published within 24 months. Timely publication was independently associated with trials completed late in 2012. Trials conducted in Asia and other regions were less likely to have timely publication, but trials conducted in different locations were all equally likely to be published. Industry- and NIH-funded trials were equally likely to be published timely or at any time after trial completion. Among 391 published trials with clear primary outcomes, there was a trend for timely publication of positive trials compared with negative trials., Conclusions: Despite the ethical obligations and societal expectations of disclosing findings promptly, oncology RCTs performed poorly., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Diabetes mellitus is frequently observed in pancreatic cancer patients and is both a risk factor and an early manifestation of the disease., Methods: We analysed the prognostic impact of diabetes on the outcome of pancreatic cancer following resection and adjuvant chemotherapy using individual patient data from three European Study Group for Pancreatic Cancer randomised controlled trials. Analyses were carried out to assess the association between clinical characteristics and the presence of preoperative diabetes, as well as the effect of diabetic status on overall survival., Results: In total, 1105 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 257 (23%) had confirmed diabetes and 848 (77%) did not. Median (95% confidence interval (CI)) unadjusted overall survival in non-diabetic patients was 22.3 (20.8-24.1) months compared with 18.8 (16.9-22.1) months for diabetic patients (P=0.24). Diabetic patients were older, had increased weight and more co-morbidities. Following adjustment, multivariable analysis demonstrated that diabetic patients had an increased risk of death (hazard ratio: 1.19 (95% CI 1.01, 1.40), P=0.034). Maximum tumour size of diabetic patients was larger at randomisation (33.6 vs 29.7 mm, P=0.026)., Conclusions: Diabetes mellitus was associated with increased tumour size and reduced survival following pancreatic cancer resection and adjuvant chemotherapy.

A composite endpoint consists of multiple endpoints combined in one outcome. It is frequently used as the primary endpoint in randomized clinical trials. There are two main disadvantages associated with the use of composite endpoints: a) in conventional analyses, all components are treated equally important; and b) in time-to-event analyses, the first event considered may not be the most important component. Recently Pocock et al. (2012) introduced the win ratio method to address these disadvantages. This method has two alternative approaches: the matched pair approach and the unmatched pair approach. In the unmatched pair approach, the confidence interval is constructed based on bootstrap resampling, and the hypothesis testing is based on the non-parametric method by Finkelstein and Schoenfeld (1999). Luo et al. (2015) developed a close-form variance estimator of the win ratio for the unmatched pair approach, based on a composite endpoint with two components and a specific algorithm determining winners, losers and ties. We extend the unmatched pair approach to provide a generalized analytical solution to both hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction for the win ratio, based on its logarithmic asymptotic distribution. This asymptotic distribution is derived via U-statistics following Wei and Johnson (1985). We perform simulations assessing the confidence intervals constructed based on our approach versus those per the bootstrap resampling and per Luo et al. We have also applied our approach to a liver transplant Phase III study. This application and the simulation studies show that the win ratio can be a better statistical measure than the odds ratio when the importance order among components matters; and the method per our approach and that by Luo et al., although derived based on large sample theory, are not limited to a large sample, but are also good for relatively small sample sizes. Different from Pocock et al. and Luo et al., our approach is a generalized analytical method, which is valid for any algorithm determining winners, losers and ties. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Clinical trials of antithrombotic therapy require a cohesive assessment of benefit and risk. A new graphical method to represent the bivariate relation of benefit and risk in trials of antithrombotic drugs is described and illustrated using published data from the four major registration clinical trials of non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) totalling 71,683 patients for prevention of thromboembolic events (TE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (RE-LY, ROCKET AF, ARISTOTLE, and ENGAGE-AF TIMI48). A curve representing a null hypothesis defines a region of benefit on a two-dimensional plane. Trial results are summarised by a rectangle defined by standard 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for thrombosis and bleeding risks. Benefit is judged by whether the confidence rectangle contains the null curve. The treatment effect is measured by the distance from the null curve to the opposing corners of the confidence rectangle (termed "corner distance (CD)"). Across trials NOACs reduced the absolute risk of TE compared to warfarin by 0.30 % (95 % CI: -0.56 % to -0.05 %) and reduced major bleeding by 0.88 % (95 % CI: -1.26 % to -0.51 %). Bivariate evaluation showed NOAC superiority to warfarin overall and elucidated dose differences; low dose edoxaban increased bivariate TE-bleeding risk 0.08 % (CD = -0.85 % to 0.78 %), whereas high dose edoxaban reduced risk 1.41 % (CD = -2.07 % to -0.70 %). In conclusion, bivariate evaluation facilitates visual assessment of the safety-efficacy profile of antithrombotic drugs. Its application to trials in atrial fibrillation found NOACs superior to warfarin without substantial differences between agents.

Background: Historically, warfarin or aspirin have been the recommended therapeutic options for the extended treatment (>3 months) of VTE. Data from Phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are now available for non-VKA oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in this indication. The current systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted to compare the efficacy and safety of anticoagulants for the extended treatment of VTE., Methods: Electronic databases (accessed July 2014 and updated April 2016) were systematically searched to identify RCTs evaluating apixaban, aspirin, dabigatran, edoxaban, rivaroxaban, and warfarin for the extended treatment of VTE. Eligible studies included adults with an objectively confirmed deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism or both. A fixed-effect Bayesian NMA was conducted, and results were presented as relative risks (RRs). Sensitivity analyses examining (i) the dataset employed according to the time frame for outcome assessment (ii) the model used for the NMA were conducted., Results: Eleven Phase III RCTs (examining apixaban, aspirin, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, warfarin and placebo) were included. The risk of the composite efficacy outcome (VTE and VTE-related death) was statistically significantly lower with the NOACs and warfarin INR 2.0-3.0 compared with aspirin, with no significant differences between the NOACs. Treatment with apixaban (RR 0.23, 95% CrI 0.10, 0.55) or dabigatran (RR 0.55, 95% Crl 0.43, 0.71) was associated with a statistically significantly reduced risk of 'major or clinically relevant non-major bleed' compared with warfarin INR 2.0-3.0. Apixaban also showed a significantly reduced risk compared with dabigatran (RR 0.42, 95% Crl 0.18, 0.97) and rivaroxaban (RR 0.23, 95% Crl 0.09, 0.59). Sensitivity analyses indicate that results were dependent on the dataset, but not on the type of NMA model employed., Conclusions: Results from the NMA indicate that NOACs are an effective treatment for prevention of VTE or VTE-related death) in the extended treatment setting. However, bleeding risk differs between potential treatments, with apixaban reporting the most favourable profile compared with other NOACs, warfarin INR 2.0-3.0, and aspirin.

Conventionally, adaptive phase II/III clinical trials are carried out with a strict two-stage design. Recently, a varying-stage adaptive phase II/III clinical trial design has been developed. In this design, following the first stage, an intermediate stage can be adaptively added to obtain more data, so that a more informative decision can be made. Therefore, the number of further investigational stages is determined based upon data accumulated to the interim analysis. This design considers two plausible study endpoints, with one of them initially designated as the primary endpoint. Based on interim results, another endpoint can be switched as the primary endpoint. However, in many therapeutic areas, the primary study endpoint is well established. Therefore, we modify this design to consider one study endpoint only so that it may be more readily applicable in real clinical trial designs. Our simulations show that, the same as the original design, this modified design controls the Type I error rate, and the design parameters such as the threshold probability for the two-stage setting and the alpha allocation ratio in the two-stage setting versus the three-stage setting have a great impact on the design characteristics. However, this modified design requires a larger sample size for the initial stage, and the probability of futility becomes much higher when the threshold probability for the two-stage setting gets smaller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

To simulate clinical trials to assess overall survival (OS) benefit of bevacizumab in combination with chemotherapy in selected patients with gastric cancer (GC), a modeling framework linking OS with tumor growth inhibition (TGI) metrics and baseline patient characteristics was developed. Various TGI metrics were estimated using TGI models and data from two phase III studies comparing bevacizumab plus chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy as first-line therapy in 976 GC patients. Time-to-tumor-growth (TTG) was the best TGI metric to predict OS. TTG, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score, albumin level, and Asian ethnicity were significant covariates in the final OS model. The model correctly predicted a decreased hazard ratio favorable to bevacizumab in patients with high baseline plasma VEGF-A above the median of 113.4 ng/L. Based on trial simulations, in trials enrolling patients with elevated baseline plasma VEGF-A (500 patients per arm), the expected hazard ratio was 0.82 (95% prediction interval: 0.70-0.95), independent of ethnicity., (© 2016 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Importance: Positive phase 3 cancer clinical trials are widely hailed, while trials with negative results are often interpreted as scientific failures. We hypothesized that these interpretations would be reflected in the scientific literature., Objective: To compare the scientific impact of positive vs negative phase 3 cancer clinical treatment trials., Design, Setting, and Participants: We examined the phase 3 trial history of SWOG, a national cancer clinical trials consortium, over a 30-year period (1985-2014). Scientific impact was assessed according to multiple publication and citation outcomes. Citation data were obtained using Google Scholar. Citation counts were compared using generalized estimating equations for Poisson regression. Any trial that was formally evaluated for the randomized treatment comparison was included for analysis of publication and citation outcomes. Trials were categorized as positive if they achieved a statistically significant result in favor of the new experimental treatment for the protocol-specified primary end point. Trials were categorized as negative if they achieved a statistically significant result in favor of standard therapy or a null result with no statistically significant benefit for either the experimental or standard therapy., Main Outcomes and Measures: Impact factors for the journals publishing the primary trial results, and the number of citations for the primary trial articles and all secondary articles associated with the trials., Results: Ninety-four studies enrolling n = 46 424 patients were analyzed. Twenty-eight percent of trials were positive (26 of 94). The primary publications from positive trials were published in journals with higher mean (SD) 2-year impact factors (28 [19] vs 18 [13]; P = .007) and were cited twice as often as negative trials (mean per year, 43 vs 21; relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.9; P = .03). However, the number of citations from all primary and secondary articles did not significantly differ between positive and negative trials (mean per year, 55 vs 45; relative risk, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7-2.3; P = .53)., Conclusions and Relevance: The scientific impact of the primary articles from positive phase 3 randomized cancer clinical trials was twice as great as for negative trials. But when all of the articles associated with the trials were considered, the scientific impact between positive and negative trials was similar. Positive trials indicate clinical advances, but negative trials also have a sizeable scientific impact by generating important scientific observations and new hypotheses and by showing what new treatments should not be used.

Naloxegol is a polyethylene glycol derivative of naloxone approved in the US as a once-daily oral treatment for opioid-induced constipation (OIC) in adults with chronic noncancer pain. Population exposure-response models were constructed based on data from two phase III studies comprising 1,331 adults with noncancer pain and OIC. In order to characterize the protocol-defined naloxegol responder rate, the number of daily spontaneous bowel movements (SBMs) was characterized by a longitudinal ordinal nonlinear mixed-effects logistic regression dose-response model, and the incidence of diary entry discontinuation was described by a time-to-event model. The mean number of SBMs per week increased with increasing naloxegol dose. The predicted placebo-adjusted responder rates (90% confidence interval) were 10.4% (4.6-13.4%) and 11.1% (4.8-14.4%) for naloxegol 12.5 and 25 mg/day, respectively. Model-predicted response to naloxegol was influenced by the baseline SBM frequency and characteristics of the opioid treatment., (© 2016 The Authors CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Objectives: Minalcipran has been approved for the treatment of fibromyalgia in several countries including Australia. Australian agency considered that the overall efficacy is moderate, although clinically significant, and could be translated into a real and strong improvement in some patients. The determination of the characteristics of patients who could benefit the most from milnacipran (MLN) is the primary objective of this manuscript., Materials and Methods: Data from the 3 pivotal phase 3 clinical trials of the Australian submission dossier were assembled into a database. A clustering method was implemented to exhibit natural groupings of homogeneous observations into clusters of efficacy outcomes and individual patients. Next, baseline characteristics were investigated using a data-mining method to determine the clinical features that may be predictive of a substantially improved effect of MLN on a set of efficacy outcomes., Results: The clustering analysis reveals 3 symptom domains: "Pain and global," "Mood and central status," and "Function." We show that improvement in "Fatigue" goes with improvement in "Function." Furthermore, the predictive data-mining analysis exhibits 4 single baseline characteristics that are associated with a substantially improved effect of MLN on efficacy outcomes. These are high pain intensity, low anxiety or catastrophizing level, absence of major sleeping problems, and physical limitations in the daily life effort., Discussion: Clustering and predictive data-mining methods provide additional insight about fibromyalgia, its symptoms, and treatment. The information is useful to physicians to optimize prescriptions in the daily practice and to regulatory bodies to refine indications.

Purpose: Measures derived from longitudinal tumour size data have been increasingly utilised to predict survival of patients with solid tumours. The aim of this study was to examine the prognostic value of such measures for patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer undergoing gemcitabine therapy., Methods: The control data from two Phase III studies were retrospectively used to develop (271 patients) and validate (398 patients) survival models. Firstly, 31 baseline variables were screened from the training set using penalised Cox regression. Secondly, tumour shrinkage metrics were interpolated for each patient by hierarchical modelling of the tumour size time-series. Subsequently, survival models were built by applying two approaches: the first aimed at incorporating model-derived tumour size metrics in a parametric model, and the second simply aimed at identifying empirical factors using Cox regression. Finally, the performance of the models in predicting patient survival was evaluated on the validation set., Results: Depending on the modelling approach applied, albumin, body surface area, neutrophil, baseline tumour size and tumour shrinkage measures were identified as potential prognostic factors. The distributional assumption on survival times appeared to affect the identification of risk factors but not the ability to describe the training data. The two survival modelling approaches performed similarly in predicting the validation data., Conclusions: A parametric model that incorporates model-derived tumour shrinkage metrics in addition to other baseline variables could predict reasonably well survival of patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer. However, the predictive performance was not significantly better than a simple Cox model that incorporates only baseline characteristics.

Background: Continuous administration of levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel (carbidopa-levodopa enteral suspension) through a percutaneous endoscopic gastrojejunostomy is a treatment option for advanced Parkinson disease (PD) patients with motor fluctuations resistant to standard oral medications. Safety data from 4 prospective studies were integrated to assess the safety of this therapy., Methods: Safety data from 4 studies were summarized using 2 overlapping data sets, permitting the separation of procedure/device-associated (n = 395) from non-procedure/device adverse events (n = 412)., Results: At the data cutoff, median exposure to levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel was 911 days (range, 1-1980 days) with 963 total patient-years of exposure. Procedure/device adverse events occurred in 300 patients (76%), and serious adverse events occurred in 68 (17%); most frequently reported procedure/device adverse events and serious adverse events were complications of device insertion (41% and 8%, respectively) and abdominal pain (36% and 4%, respectively). Non-procedure/device adverse events occurred in 92% (379), with most frequently reported being insomnia (23%) and falls (23%); 42% (171) had non-procedure/device serious adverse events, with most frequently reported being pneumonia (5%) and PD symptoms (2%). Adverse events led to discontinuation in 17% (72), most frequently because of complication of device insertion (2.4%). There were 34 treatment-emergent deaths (8.3%) in the overlapping data sets, 2 of which (0.5%) were considered "possibly related" to the treatment system., Conclusion: In the largest collection of levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel safety data from prospective clinical studies, procedure/device events were frequently reported and occasionally life threatening. Most non-procedure/device events were typical for levodopa treatment and an elderly population. These factors combined with high treatment efficacy led to a relatively low discontinuation rate in advanced PD patients., (© 2015 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.)

A variety of response-adaptive randomization procedures have been proposed in literature assuming binary outcomes. However, the list is not so long for continuous outcomes though many real clinical trials deal with continuous treatment responses. In this paper, we attempt to explore the available procedures together with a comparison of their performances. Some real-life adaptive trial is also reviewed., (© The Author(s) 2012.)

The frailty model, an extension of the proportional hazards model, is often used to model clustered survival data. However, some extension of the ordinary frailty model is required when there exist competing risks within a cluster. Under competing risks, the underlying processes affecting the events of interest and competing events could be different but correlated. In this paper, the hierarchical likelihood method is proposed to infer the cause-specific hazard frailty model for clustered competing risks data. The hierarchical likelihood incorporates fixed effects as well as random effects into an extended likelihood function, so that the method does not require intensive numerical methods to find the marginal distribution. Simulation studies are performed to assess the behavior of the estimators for the regression coefficients and the correlation structure among the bivariate frailty distribution for competing events. The proposed method is illustrated with a breast cancer dataset., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Phase II and phase III trials play a crucial role in drug development programs. They are costly and time consuming and, because of high failure rates in late development stages, at the same time risky investments. Commonly, sample size calculation of phase III is based on the treatment effect observed in phase II. Therefore, planning of phases II and III can be linked. The performance of the phase II/III program crucially depends on the allocation of the resources to phases II and III by appropriate choice of the sample size and the rule applied to decide whether to stop the program after phase II or to proceed. We present methods for a program-wise phase II/III planning that aim at determining optimal phase II sample sizes and go/no-go decisions in a time-to-event setting. Optimization is based on a utility function that takes into account (fixed and variable) costs of the drug development program and potential gains after successful launch. The proposed methods are illustrated by application to a variety of scenarios typically met in oncology drug development., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

When performing a pivotal clinical trial, it may be of interest to assess the probability of success (PoS) of that trial. Initially evaluated when the trial is designed, PoS can be updated as the trial progresses and new information about the drug effect becomes available. Such information can be external to the trial, such as results from trials conducted in parallel, or internal, such as continuing after an interim analysis. We develop a framework to update PoS based on such internal and external information for a time-to-event endpoint and illustrate it using a realistic development program for a new molecule.

We consider sample size re-estimation in a clinical trial, in particular when there is a significant delay before the measurement of patient response. Mehta and Pocock have proposed methods in which sample size is increased when interim results fall in a 'promising zone' where it is deemed worthwhile to increase conditional power by adding more subjects. Our analysis reveals potential pitfalls in applying this approach. Mehta and Pocock use results of Chen, DeMets and Lan to identify when increasing sample size, but applying a conventional level α significance test at the end of the trial does not inflate the type I error rate: we have found the greatest gains in power per additional observation are liable to lie outside the region defined by this method. Mehta and Pocock increase sample size to achieve a particular conditional power, calculated under the current estimate of treatment effect: this leads to high increases in sample size for a small range of interim outcomes, whereas we have found it more efficient to make moderate increases in sample size over a wider range of cases. If the aforementioned pitfalls are avoided, we believe the broad framework proposed by Mehta and Pocock is valuable for clinical trial design. Working in this framework, we propose sample size rules that apply explicitly the principle of adding observations when they are most beneficial. The resulting trial designs are closely related to efficient group sequential tests for a delayed response proposed by Hampson and Jennison., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Objectives: We sought to determine the speed at which patients were accrued into published phase III oncology trials across geographic locations and to identify the factors that may influence this process., Materials and Methods: We searched OVID-Medline and identified all phase III oncology therapeutic trials published in 2006 to 2010. The speed of accrual for each trial was calculated by dividing the number of patients enrolled by the number of months the trial was open (patients/mo)., Results: Five hundred forty-six trials were included in our study. Most of the trials were for adults (96%), late-stage cancers (78%), sponsored by either cooperative groups or academic centers (66%), and had negative results (58%). The most common trial locations were multinational (45%), United States (16%), Italy (7%), Germany (6%), Japan (6%), and France (5%). Compared with trials conducted in a single country, multinational trials accrued significantly more patients per trial, completed enrollment faster, and were published sooner (all P≤0.01). Multivariate analyses showed that multinational (P=0.001), breast cancer (P=0.001), industry sponsored (P=0.001), and equivalency trials (P=0.039) accrued significantly faster than other types of trials. Placebo-controlled and non-placebo-controlled trials accrued at similar speeds. We found no difference in speed of accrual between the United States and Europe., Conclusions: Speed of accrual for phase III oncology trials is fastest among multinational trials and independently influenced by the type of trial sponsor, cancer investigated, and study outcome, but not by placebo use. Trials conducted in single countries seem to accrue at similar speeds.

Objectives: Sample size calculation (SSC) is a pivotal step in clinical trial conception and design. Herein, we describe the frequency with which oncology phase III trials report the parameters required for SSC., Materials and Methods: We systematically searched for phase III trials published in 6 leading journals, which were accompanied by editorials from January 2008 to October 2011. Two blinded investigators extracted required and optional parameters for SSC according to the primary endpoint., Results: We retrieved 140 eligible phase III trials. The median target sample size was 596 subjects (50 to 40,000); in 66.4% of cases, the number of enrolled subjects was at least 90% of the target. The primary endpoint was a continuous variable in 5.7%, categorical in 30.0%, and a time-to-event variable in 64.3% of phase III trials. Although nearly 80% reported a target sample size, only 27.9% of the trials provided all the required parameters for proper SSC. The most commonly reported parameters for sample size computation were α (93.6%) and β (90.7%) errors. The parameters least reported were the expected outcomes in the control or experimental groups, each provided in only 57.9% of trials., Conclusions: The quality of SSC reporting in phase III cancer trials is poor. Such incomplete reporting may compromise future study designs, pooling of data, and interpretation of results. Lack of transparency in SSC reporting may also have ethical implications.

Purpose: Correct interpretation of subgroup analyses (SGA) is important as it influences selection of therapeutic interventions for patient subsets. The primary aim of our study was to compare reporting of SGA between industry and non-industry sponsored trials., Methods: We performed a systematic literature review and extracted data from journal articles (JA) and conference abstracts (CA) published over a decade reporting SGA results of phase III randomised controlled gastrointestinal (GI) oncology trials with patient participants of ≥150., Results: In JA, SGA was reported in 100/145 (69%) trials: 41/54 industry sponsored (76%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 63-86%) and 59/91 non-industry sponsored (65%; 95% CI: 55-74%) trials (p = 0.16). In CA, SGA was reported in 86/204 (42%) trials: 43/83 industry sponsored (52%; 95% CI: 41-62%) and 43/121 non-industry sponsored (36%; 95% CI: 28-44%) trials (p = 0.02). Number of SGA performed per trial was significantly larger for industry compared to non-industry sponsored trials in both JA (median 6 versus 2, p = 0.003) and CA (median 1 versus 0, p = 0.023). Claims of subgroup effect were made in 52% of trials in JA and 50% in CA, with significant test of interaction evident in only 25% of JA and 16% of CA, with no difference between industry and non-industry trials. Industry sponsored trials with a significant primary end-point reported more SGA (p < 0.001 JA; p = 0.046 CA)., Conclusions: Industry sponsored trials reported more SGA. Claimed subgroup effects were often not accompanied by significant interaction test; thus circumspection should be adopted when using SGA to deviate from standard therapeutic decision-making in GI oncology., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Postprandial hyperglycemia (PPHG) may need addressing when glycemic control cannot be maintained in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. We investigated whether glycated hemoglobin A1c (A1c) levels ≥7.0% can indicate postprandial defects warranting prandial therapy after optimized basal insulin therapy., Methods: From 6 clinical trials of insulin glargine treatment, data were pooled from 496 patients with A1c ≥7.0% after 24 weeks. Patient characteristics and clinical outcomes were summarized according to fasting plasma glucose (FPG) target achievement (<130 mg/dL), postprandial blood glucose (PPBG) levels, and PPBG increments (ΔPPBG). Basal and postprandial contributions to hyperglycemia were determined., Results: After 24 weeks of insulin glargine titration, A1c change from baseline was greater in patients with FPG <130 mg/dL versus ≥130 mg/dL (-1.35% versus -1.11%, respectively; P = .0275), but with increased confirmed hypoglycemia rates (blood glucose <70 mg/dL; 4.06 events/patient-year versus 3.31 events/patient-year; P = .0170). However, increased severe hypoglycemia rates were observed in patients with FPG ≥130 mg/dL. At week 24, postprandial contributions to hyperglycemia increased (>60% regardless of PPBG). Patients with high FPG had lower, but substantial, relative postprandial contributions versus patients achieving FPG target. A similar pattern was observed according to whether patients had a ΔPPBG ≥50 mg/dL after any meal., Conclusion: After optimized basal insulin therapy, elevated A1c is the most effective indicator of residual PPHG, regardless of existent FPG or PPBG. When confronted with an uncontrolled A1c after reasonable titration of basal insulin, clinicians should be aware of probable postprandial contributions to hyperglycemia and consider prandial therapy.

An invited panel session was conducted in the 2012 Joint Statistical Meetings, San Diego, California, USA, to stimulate the discussion on multiplicity issues in confirmatory clinical trials for drug development. A total of 11 expert panel members were invited and 9 participated. Prior to the session, a case study was previously provided to the panel members to facilitate the discussion, focusing on the key components of the study design and multiplicity. The Phase 3 development program for this new experimental treatment was based on a single randomized controlled trial alone. Each panelist was asked to clarify if he or she responded as if he or she were a pharmaceutical drug sponsor, an academic panelist or a health regulatory scientist., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: Although participation in cancer clinical trials is low, little is known about the number of available clinical trials, and open spots for patients. Moreover, it is unclear what the relationship is between clinical trial openings and the incidence and mortality of cancer subtypes., Methodology: We identified the number of phase I, phase II and phase III registered at clinicaltrials.gov by cancer (tumour) type. All counts were over the preceding 5 years (2008-2013). We compared these counts against the incidence and prevalence of disease reported by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database for 32 common cancers., Results: From 2008 to 2013, 3879 phase I trials, 4982 phase II trials and 1379 phase III trials concerning a cancer subtype were registered in clinicaltrials.gov. These trials had a cumulative proposed recruitment of 203,396, 421,502 and 697,787 patients, respectively. Trial enrollment varied by tumour type, with both over and under-representation occurring., Conclusion: Opportunities to enroll in clinical trials vary by phase and tumour type. Oncologists must remain committed to clinical trials., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease., (© 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Randomized clinical trials provide the most reliable evidence to guide the management of stroke and threatened stroke and reflect the interests of the stroke research community. The spectrum of phase III randomized clinical trials in stroke has not been previously characterized., Methods: Phase III stroke randomized clinical trials published between 2012 and 2014 were identified by search of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials supplemented by recent publications known to the co-authors., Results: Thirty-four randomized clinical trials were included involving 85 770 participants: 20 acute stroke randomized clinical trials (32 590 patients), 11 stroke prevention randomized clinical trials (28 964 patients), and three randomized clinical trials in which stroke was a major component of a composite primary outcome involving nonstroke patients (24 216 patients). Twenty-two (65%) trials were international, and eight (24%) were industry sponsored. Drugs were tested in 21 (62%) randomized clinical trials, with devices (n = 9), surgery (n = 3), and diet (n = 1) in the remainder. Thirteen (38%) randomized clinical trials were stopped early: seven for futility, three for efficacy, two for harm, and one for budget/administrative reasons. Overall, the results of seven (21%) randomized clinical trials were positive, five (15%) equivocal, 18 (53%) negative, and four (12%) inconclusive. Considering positive and definitively negative randomized clinical trials testing currently used interventions, 11 (32%) randomized clinical trials have direct implications for clinical management., Conclusions: The diversity of interventions, high-quality, and worldwide origins of recently published phase III randomized clinical trials reflects a vibrant international stroke research community. The current generation of stroke randomized clinical trials provides important guidance for stroke prevention and acute stroke care., (© 2015 World Stroke Organization.)

Background and Objective: The microbial susceptibility of many antibiotics has been affected by prescribing patterns and their extensive use. The purpose of this evaluation was to assess how these changes could affect the initial efficacy of ertapenem and piperacillin/tazobactam in the treatment of complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) acquired in the community and the potential consequences this may have in healthcare costs in Spain., Methods: The Initial efficacy of ertapenem and piperacillin/tazobactam for patients with APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II scores <10 was extracted from a multicenter randomized study and were combined with the current microbial susceptibilities obtained from the SMART study, a multinational surveillance program. Country-specific pathogens distribution was extracted from a national study in patients with community-acquired IAI. The estimated effectiveness was used in a decision-analytic model to compare total costs between ertapenem and piperacillin/tazobactam in the treatment of complicated IAI. The model performs extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses., Results: The model suggested a savings of €209 (year 2012 values) per patient when complicated IAIs acquired in the community (APACHE II <10) were treated with ertapenem instead of piperacillin/tazobactam. One-way sensitivity analyses showed length of stay as the key driver parameter. Further analysis of this parameter and probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of our evaluation, with a 58% likelihood of ertapenem being dominant., Conclusions: Ertapenem appears to be a cost-saving strategy over piperacillin/tazobactam for the treatment of patients with complicated IAIs acquired in the community in Spain.

Objective: Meta-analysis to compare hypoglycemia rates of basal insulin degludec (IDeg) with insulin glargine (IGlar) in patients with diabetes achieving good glycemic control (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] <7% at end of trial)., Methods: In a preplanned meta-analysis, patient data from 7 randomized, treat-to-target, 26- or 52-week trials in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who administered IDeg (n = 2,899) or IGlar (n = 1,431) once daily were analyzed. Using a negative binomial regression model, this meta-analysis compared hypoglycemia rates in patients achieving HbA1c <7% at end of trial with IDeg (n = 1,347) and IGlar (n = 697)., Results: In all trials, IDeg was noninferior to IGlar in HbA1c reduction from baseline. At end of trial, 2,044 patients (T2DM, n = 1,661; T1DM, n = 383) achieved HbA1c <7%. The overall confirmed hypoglycemia rate, defined as plasma glucose <56 mg/dL or severe hypoglycemia if requiring assistance, was significantly lower with IDeg versus IGlar (estimated rate ratio [ERR] IDeg:IGlar, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76 to 0.98). The nocturnal confirmed hypoglycemia rate, defined as occurring between midnight and 6:00 am, was significantly lower with IDeg (ERR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.77). In the maintenance period (16 weeks onward when average insulin dose and glycemic levels stabilized), the overall confirmed hypoglycemia rate was significantly lower (ERR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.92) and the nocturnal confirmed hypoglycemia rate was significantly lower (ERR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.72) with IDeg versus IGlar., Conclusion: Patients with T1DM and T2DM achieved HbA1c <7% with significantly lower rates of overall and nocturnal confirmed hypoglycemia with IDeg versus IGlar. The lower hypoglycemia rate with IDeg was more pronounced in the maintenance period.