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Atmospheric water vapor plays a crucial role in the global energy balance, hydrological cycle, and climate system. High-quality and consistent water vapor data from different sources are vital for weather prediction and climate research. This study assesses the consistency between the Formosa Satellite Mission 3–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) radio occultation (RO) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Model 5 (ERA5) water vapor datasets. Comparisons are made across different atmospheric pressure levels (300, 500, and 850 hPa) from 2007 to 2018. Generally, the two datasets show good spatial and temporal agreement. COSMIC's global water vapor retrieval is slightly lower than ERA5's at 500 and 850 hPa, with distinct latitudinal differences between hemispheres. COSMIC exhibits global water vapor increasing trends of 3.47 ± 1.77 % per decade, 3.25 ± 1.25 % per decade, and 2.03 ± 0.65 % per decade at 300, 500, and 850 hPa, respectively. Significant regional variability in water vapor trends, encompassing notable increasing and decreasing patterns, is observable in tropical and subtropical regions. At 500 and 850 hPa, strong water vapor increasing trends are noted in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Laccadive Sea, while decreasing trends are evident in the Indo-Pacific Ocean region and the Arabian Sea. Over land, substantial increasing trends at 850 hPa are observed in the southern United States, contrasting with decreasing trends in southern Africa and Australia. The differences between the water vapor trends of COSMIC and ERA5 are primarily negative in the tropical regions at 850 hPa. However, the water vapor increasing trends at 850 hPa estimated from COSMIC are significantly higher than the ones derived from ERA5 data for two low-height stratocumulus-cloud-rich ocean regions west of Africa and South America. These regions with notable water vapor trend differences are located in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) area with frequent occurrences of convection, such as deep clouds. The difference in characterizing water vapor distribution between RO and ERA5 in deep cloud regions may cause such trend differences. The assessment of spatiotemporal variability in RO-derived water vapor and reanalysis of atmospheric water vapor data helps ensure the quality of these datasets for climate studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the diurnal to interannual variations of the stratiform cloud cover in May–October (1971–2019) from a 3‐hourly station database and from ERA5 reanalyses over western equatorial Africa (WEA). The main diurnal variations of the local‐scale fraction and genus of stratiform clouds are synthesized into three canonical diurnal types (i.e., "clear," "clear afternoon," "cloudy" days). The interannual variations of frequencies of the three diurnal types during the cloudiest months (JJAS) are mostly associated with two main mechanisms: a meridional shallow overturning cell associating more "cloudy" and less "clear" and "clear afternoon" days to anomalous southerlies below 900 hPa over and around WEA, anomalous ascent around 5°–7°N, anomalous northerlies between 875 and 700 hPa, and anomalous subsidence over the equatorial Atlantic. This circulation is strongly related to interannual variations of the equatorial Atlantic upwelling (i.e., more clouds when the upwelling is strong) associated with a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over the Tropical Atlantic and adjacent continents. The second mechanism operates mostly in the zonal direction and involves again the coupled ocean–atmosphere system over the equatorial Atlantic, but also the remote El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). An anomalously cold equatorial Atlantic drives increased low‐level westerlies toward the Congo Basin. Warm ENSO events promote broad warm and easterly anomalies in the middle and upper troposphere, which increase the local static stability, and thus the local stratiform cloud cover over WEA. The present study suggests new mechanisms responsible for interannual variations of stratiform clouds in WEA, thus providing avenues of future research regarding the stability of the stratiform cloud deck under the ongoing differential warming of tropical ocean and land masses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) is one of the solar geoengineering approaches that have been proposed to offset some of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Past studies have shown that SAG may have adverse impacts on the global hydrological cycle. Using a climate model, we quantify the sensitivity of the tropical monsoon precipitation to the meridional distribution of volcanic sulfate aerosols prescribed in the stratosphere in terms of the changes in aerosol optical depth (AOD). In our experiments, large changes in summer monsoon precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions are simulated, especially over the Indian region, in association with meridional shifts in the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) caused by changes in interhemispheric AOD differences. Based on our simulations, we estimate a sensitivity of − 1.8° ± 0.0° meridional shift in global mean ITCZ and a 6.9 ± 0.4% reduction in northern hemisphere (NH) monsoon index (NHMI; summer monsoon precipitation over NH monsoon regions) per 0.1 interhemispheric AOD difference (NH minus southern hemisphere). We also quantify this sensitivity in terms of interhemispheric differences in effective radiative forcing and interhemispheric temperature differences: 3.5 ± 0.3% change in NHMI per unit (Wm−2) interhemispheric radiative forcing difference and 5.9 ± 0.4% change per unit (°C) interhemispheric temperature difference. Similar sensitivity estimates are also made for the Indian monsoon precipitation. The establishment of the relationship between interhemispheric AOD (or radiative forcing) differences and ITCZ shift as discussed in this paper will further facilitate and simplify our understanding of the effects of SAG on tropical monsoon rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal changes in East Asian monsoon precipitation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 23,000–19,000 years B.P.) and its isotopic expression remain ambiguous. This study investigates changes in the seasonal precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) over East Asia during the LGM relative to the preindustrial (PI) and the underlying mechanisms using an isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation model. We show more depleted δ18Op in summer and a meridional tripolar δ18Op pattern in winter during the LGM compared to the PI. The depletion of summer δ18Op resulted from stronger upstream convective rainout due to the intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In contrast, the mechanisms for winter δ18Op changes were more complicated. With a series of sensitivity tests, we demonstrate that sea surface temperature controlled δ18Op changes across the whole of East Asia in summer and in the southern part of East Asia in winter. The depletion of winter δ18Op in central China arose largely from the suppression of droplet evaporation due to higher snow fraction. Our work provides important insights into the aspect of seasonal isotope changes during the LGM and may help facilitate an improved level of paleoclimatic interpretation of speleothem δ18O records from East Asia. Plain Language Summary: The climate over East Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was colder and drier than it is today according to paleoclimatic records. However, interpretations of paleo‐isotopic records have been inconsistent in previous research, and the seasonal isotope changes are still unclear. Here we use an isotope‐equipped climate model to explore summer and winter precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) behaviors in East Asia during the LGM. Compared to the preindustrial, the LGM was characterized by depleted summer δ18Op, largely due to the intensification of the Intertropical Convergence Zone which resulted in stronger rainout along the moisture transport pathways. The winter δ18Op, however, was more complex and exhibited a tripolar spatial pattern, with δ18Op depletion in central China but enrichment in both south and north. This pattern probably reflected the combined effect of sea surface temperature driven rainout en route and droplet evaporation. Key Points: Isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation model reasonably reproduces East Asian climate and precipitation δ18O changes between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and preindustrialDepleted δ18O in LGM summer precipitation was driven by upstream rainout due to an intensification of the Intertropical Convergence ZoneWinter precipitation δ18O changes in southern and central China were controlled by rainout and droplet evaporation, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low latitude Indian Ocean is warming faster than other tropical basins, and its interannual climate variability is projected to become more extreme under future emissions scenarios with substantial impacts on developing Indian Ocean rim countries. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to understand the drivers of regional precipitation in a changing climate. Here we present a new speleothem record from Anjohibe, a cave in northwest (NW) Madagascar well situated to record past changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). U‐Th ages date speleothem growth from 27 to 14 ka. δ18O, δ13C, and trace metal proxies reconstruct drier conditions during Heinrich Stadials 1 and 2, and wetter conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum and Bølling–Allerød. This is surprising considering hypotheses arguing for southward (northward) ITCZ shifts during North Atlantic cooling (warming) events, which would be expected to result in wetter (drier) conditions at Anjohibe in the Southern Hemisphere tropics. The reconstructed Indian Ocean zonal (west‐east) sea surface temperature (SST) gradient is in close agreement with hydroclimate proxies in NW Madagascar, with periods of increased precipitation correlating with relatively warmer conditions in the western Indian Ocean and cooler conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean. Such gradients could drive long‐term shifts in the strength of the Walker circulation with widespread effects on hydroclimate across East Africa. These results suggest that during abrupt millennial‐scale climate changes, it is not meridional ITCZ shifts, but the tropical Indian Ocean SST gradient and Walker circulation driving East African hydroclimate variability. Plain Language Summary: Long term monsoon dynamics in the southern Indian Ocean and Global South are not well constrained due to a lack of observational data. Paleoclimate records generated from archives like speleothems can help us fill gaps in our understanding. Here we use a speleothem record from Madagascar to test whether north‐south shifts in the tropical rain belt or west‐east changes in Indian Ocean temperatures are more important for precipitation in tropical East Africa. We find that ocean temperature gradients are the most important control on precipitation at our study site during previous instances of abrupt climate change linked to variability in the strength of North Atlantic ocean circulation. This work has important implications for how we think about the future of the tropical Indian Ocean sector in a changing climate. Key Points: Speleothem stable isotope and trace metal data agree on a dry Heinrich Stadial 1 and a wet Bølling–Allerød in northwest MadagascarHeinrich Stadial 1 and the Bølling‐Allerød show conditions contrary to responses expected from north‐south Intertropical Convergence Zone shiftsMillennial‐scale tropical East African hydroclimate variability is likely driven by zonal Indian Ocean sea surface temperature gradients [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450–1850 CE) were periods generally characterized by respectively higher and lower temperatures in many regions. However, they have also been associated with drier and wetter conditions in areas around the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Asian Monsoon region and in areas impacted by large-scale climatic modes like the Northern Annular Mode and Southern Annular Mode (NAM and SAM respectively). To analyze coordinated changes in large-scale hydroclimate patterns and whether similar changes also extend to other periods of the Last Millennium (LM) outside the MCA and the LIA, reconstruction-based products have been analyzed. This includes the collection of tree-ring-based drought atlases (DAs), the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR). These analyses have shown coherent changes in the hydroclimate of tropical and extratropical regions, such as northern and central South America, East Africa, western North America, western Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and the Indo-Pacific, during the MCA, the LIA and other periods of the LM. Comparisons with model simulations from the Community Earth System Model – Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) and phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) show that both external forcing and internal variability contributed to these changes, with the contribution of internal variability being particularly important in the Indo-Pacific basin and that of external forcing in the Atlantic basin. These results may help to identify not only those areas showing coordinated changes, but also those regions more impacted by the internal variability, where forced model simulations would not be expected to successfully reproduce the evolution of past actual hydroclimate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High‐resolution air‐sea observations collected by a suite of remotely‐piloted uncrewed surface vehicles (USV) provide new insight on surface latent and sensible heat fluxes associated with convective cold pools over the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Convective cold pools are linked to isolated, heavily precipitating cells over the ocean that yield downdrafts of evaporatively‐cooled air that spreads out horizontally in all directions and are characterized by strong air temperature gradients and horizontal wind speeds. Cold pool frontal signatures are identified based on air temperature depression criteria of −1.5°C in 10 min or less, resulting in a total of 276 events observed within the eastern Pacific ITCZ across 590 total seadays of data from 10 drones over the course of 3 years. Composite analysis reveals enhanced latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere immediately following the frontal passage, and a decomposition of the bulk flux formulas indicates that variations in latent heat flux are largely influenced by the anomalous wind field (i.e., the cold pool gust front) acting on the mean background air‐sea moisture gradient, while variations in sensible heat flux are largely influenced by the mean background wind acting on the anomalous air‐sea temperature gradient (i.e., the cold pool temperature front). High‐frequency variations in wind speed and velocity are further explored in the context of "gustiness" and averaging intervals used in bulk flux algorithms. A case study is also presented for a convective cold pool event captured by a traveling mesoscale network, or mesonet, of USVs. Plain Language Summary: New 1‐min measurements of oceanic and atmospheric variables collected by automated observing platforms, Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles, are used to explore convective cold pools over the stormy region of the northern hemisphere eastern tropical Pacific ocean. Convective cold pools are domes of cold air near the surface that form underneath intensely raining thunderstorms. The cold pool boundary (or front) separates the cold, dry air within the dome from the warm, moist air of the surrounding environment, and thus qualifying events are identified based on temperature drops of −1.5°C in 10 min or less in the 1‐min saildrone data. Results based on 276 cold pool events observed between 10 drones over 3 years reveal that increasing wind speed and decreasing air temperature associated with the cold pool front largely contribute to enhanced air‐sea heat fluxes (i.e., exchanges of energy) from the ocean to the atmosphere, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution (i.e., 1‐min) observations to capture variations on small time and space scales. A cold pool event observed by multiple saildrones is also explored, and wind measurements from a single saildrone are further investigated in the context of a "gustiness" parameter used in the bulk flux equations. Key Points: High‐resolution uncrewed surface vehicles measurements provide new insight on sub‐grid/sub‐footprint variability associated with convective cold poolsConvective cold pool fronts modulate latent heat fluxes primarily through mechanical forcing by the anomalous wind fieldConvective cold pool fronts modulate sensible heat fluxes primarily through thermodynamic forcing by the anomalous temperature gradient [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What do we need to compute the pertinent variables for climate? Some highly detailed models exist, called Earth System Models, where all the relevant components of climate are present: the atmosphere, the ocean, the vegetation and the ice sheets. As many as possible phenomena are represented, and for accuracy, there are two ways of doing it. The first is to solve dynamics equations with a grid size as small as possible. This method induces high economic and computational costs. The second method is to compute the sub-grid processes with smart parameterizations adapted to the grid size. This method induces a massive amount of parameterizations. Some simpler models exist, e.g. 1D radiative-convective model, but like the other models, they use parameterizations. For example, to compute the material energy fluxes provoked by temperature gradients, one may use a Fourier law, saying that energy fluxes are locally proportional to temperature gradients. While this law has a well-defined parameter value at the microscopic scale, the parameter needs to be better defined for the climate scale. More than that, the button for this parameter can be turned to make the model closer to observations. This process is called tuning and exists in all accurate climate models. This article uses a new method to compute temperatures and energy fluxes, where tuning is impossible. We hope this method is more physical and universal as we have less range to tell the model to give the desired result beforehand. Therefore, it could be used for climates where few are known, such as paleoclimate or climates of other planets. The method used is based on a thermodynamic hypothesis, the maximum entropy production. For simplicity, we restrict the model to be 1D vertical for a tropical atmosphere. With conservation laws, the problem is an optimization problem under constraints. It is solved with an algorithm making a gradient descent from an initial condition. The result is the maximum of the objective function, the entropy production, where the constraints are satisfied. As constraints, energy conservation and mass conservation already give a suitable temperature profile. This article adds a new constraint on the water cycle. The water vapour is allowed to disappear, leading to precipitations, but it is not allowed to be created. The result for this new set of equations (or constraints) shows precipitations nil everywhere and positive at the top of the troposphere. It is like 'cumulonimbus' precipitations. It seems coherent to what happens in the tropics, where the Intertropical Convergence Zone leads to deep convection. Moreover, the computed order of magnitude is correct. Fundamentally, although the water cycle is often described as a complex and multidisciplinary problem, the correct order of magnitude of precipitations can be computed with almost only the knowledge of radiative transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) affects millions of people in India and the global weather and climate. The teleconnections that affect this variation are not stable. The recent four decades of the second dominant mode of ISM rainfall show a unique north-south tripole pattern, with above-normal rainfall in the north and peninsular India sandwiching suppressed rainfall in central-east India. The pattern relates to extending the Indo-Pacific warm-pool's warmer sea-surface temperature (SST) towards the south of the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. Most of the time, this warming and the extension of the warm-pool's warmer SST are associated with La Niña events, which activate more in situ vigorous convection. The Rossby-gyres generated west of the equatorial heating increase the tropospheric height over north India, shifting and strengthening the Tibetan High northwards, facilitating heavy rainfall in the north. Meanwhile, the more vigorous convection south of the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean produces compensatory subsidence over central-east India, suppressing rainfall. The northern hemispheric Rossby-gyres brings anomalous cyclonic circulation over peninsular India, producing excess rainfall. Also, the dipole pressure anomaly between the northwest Pacific and south tropical Indian Ocean generates anomalous lower-level easterly winds over the Bay of Bengal. It supplies excess moisture to the north India convections. The co-occurrence of the active Atlantic intertropical convergence zone supports this tripole rainfall pattern. This teleconnection could further be examined in climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future risk of tropical cyclones (TCs) strongly depends on changes in TC frequency, but models have persistently produced contrasting projections. A satisfactory explanation of the projected changes also remains elusive. Here we show a warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces TC formation. This contraction manifests as stronger equatorial convection and weaker off-equatorial convection. It has been robustly projected by climate models, particularly in the northern hemisphere. This contraction shortens TC seasons by delaying the poleward migration of the intertropical convergence zone. At seasonal peaks of TC activity, the equatorial and off-equatorial components of this contraction are associated with TC-hindering environmental changes. Finally, the convection contraction and associated warming patterns can partly explain the ensemble spread in projecting future TC frequency. This study highlights the role of convection contraction and provides motivation for coordinated research to solidify our confidence in future TC risk projections. This study, based on a large set of climate simulations, suggests a delay and reduction of hurricane formation in a warmer climate, linked to the warming-induced contraction of tropical ascents that makes rainstorms more concentrated near the equator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in marine productivity of the last five centuries in the Gulf of Tehuantepec were investigated using a high-resolution record of diatoms, organic carbon (Corg), total nitrogen (TN), Ni/Al, and Cu/Al. The laminated sediments were dated by using 210Pb and 14C, with a bayesian age model providing a new Δ R = 247 ± 30 years for the bulk sediment. The Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1500 to ~1858 CE) was characterized by the predominance of cold-water and high productivity diatoms (Chaetoceros spores, Thalassionema nitzschioides, Lioloma pacificum, Thalassiosira nanolineata, and Rhizossolenia setigera) and high values of geochemical productivity proxies. A transition period (~1860 to ~1919 CE) toward warmer conditions related to the end of the LIA and the beginning of the Current Warm Period (CWP), was indicated by the appearance of warm-water diatoms (Neodelphineis pelagica, Thalassiosira tenera, and Rhizossolenia bergonii), as well as lower values of Corg, TN, Ni/Al, and Cu/Al. The most recent period of the CWP (~1920 CE to today) was characterized by the increased abundance warm-water taxa (N. pelagica, Cymatodiscus planetophorus, T. tenera, Plagiogramma minus, Nitzschia interruptestriata, and R. bergonii), and by the prevalence of low values of Corg, TN, Ni/Al, and Cu/Al. These changes in productivity during the LIA and CWP were likely driven by changes in solar irradiance and the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This study highlights the spatial extent of the LIA in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific and contributes to the knowledge of the productivity response to climate in tropical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An idealized aquaplanet moist global atmospheric model with realistic radiative transfer but no clouds and no convective parameterization is found to possess multiple climate equilibria. When forced symmetrically about the equator, in some cases the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrates to an off‐equatorial equilibrium position. Mechanism denial experiments prescribing relative humidity imply that radiation‐circulation coupling is essential to this instability. The cross‐equatorial asymmetry occurs only when the underlying slab ocean is sufficiently deep and the atmosphere's spectral dynamical core is sufficiently coarse (∼T170 or less with our control parameters). At higher resolutions, initializing with an asymmetric state indicates metastability with very slow (thousands of days) return to hemispheric symmetry. There is some sensitivity to the model timestep, which affects the time required to transition to the asymmetric state, with little effect on the equilibrium climate. The instability is enhanced when the planetary boundary layer scheme favors deeper layers or by a prescribed meridional heat transport away from the equator within the slab. The instability is not present when the model is run with a convective parameterization scheme commonly utilized in idealized moist models. We argue that the instability occurs when the asymmetric heating associated with a spontaneous ITCZ shift drives a circulation that rises poleward of the perturbed ITCZ. These results serve as a warning of the potential for instability and non‐uniqueness of climate that may complicate studies with idealized models of the tropical response to perturbations in forcing. Plain Language Summary: Much of the rainfall in the tropics occurs in the Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs). These regions are associated with the convergence of surface winds, which produces the rising air required to feed the Hadley cells. The ITCZ location is known to be determined by the spatial distribution of atmospheric heating as the Hadley cells act to erase thermal imbalance within the tropics. With hemispherically symmetric heating, a symmetric equatorial ITCZ is expected. However, it is shown in this paper that changes in the ITCZ location affect the distribution of the radiative cooling of the atmosphere through changes in the water vapor distribution, which may make the equatorial ITCZ unstable under some circumstances. In this situation, two alternative climates with the ITCZ shifted into either one of the hemispheres exist. This instability may play an important role for understanding the distribution of tropical precipitation and the potential for the existence of multiple climates for the same set of external conditions. Key Points: The equatorial ITCZ can be destabilized by radiation‐circulation coupling in a hemispherically symmetric aquaplanet modelAs the ITCZ drifts off the equator two different asymmetric equilibria may exist under symmetric forcing and boundary conditionsA theory is proposed based on the energy flux equator sensitivity to the perturbed asymmetric heating when the ITCZ moves off the equator [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying tropical hydroclimate and productivity change in the past is critical for understanding global climate dynamics. Northwest Australia is an ideal location for investigating Australian monsoon dynamics, the variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), and their impact on past productivity and Pacific warm pool evolution, which remain poorly understood during the 40 kyr world in the mid‐early Pleistocene. In this study, we present multi‐proxy records from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1483 in the Timor Sea spanning the last 2,000 ka, including orbitally‐resolved records from the 40 kyr world between 2,000 and 1,300 ka. Our results suggest that northwest Australia underwent a step of increased aridification and that productivity in the Timor Sea declined during the transition from ∼1,700 to ∼1,400 ka. We attribute this aridification to the reduced moisture supply to this region caused by the ITF restriction and warm pool contraction. We ascribe the declined productivity to a decrease in the nutrient supply of the Pacific source water associated with global nutrient redistribution. At orbital timescale, multiple mechanisms, including sea level changes, monsoon, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) dynamics, and variations in the ITF and Walker circulation could have controlled variations of productivity and terrigenous input in the Timor Sea during the 40 kyr world. Our bulk nitrogen and benthic carbon isotope records suggest a strong coupling to biogeochemical changes in the Pacific during this period. This research contributes to a better understanding of tropical hydroclimate and productivity changes during the 40 kyr world. Plain Language Summary: The northwest Australian region is located at the southwestern edge of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and experiences a seasonal monsoon climate. Oceanic and climate conditions in this region are also strongly influenced by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which is the only tropical pathway in the modern ocean connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans and providing the main conduit for the exchange of water, salt, and heat between these oceans. These conditions make northwest Australia a strategic location to explore Australian monsoon dynamics, the variability of the ITF, and the interaction between tropical hydroclimate and productivity in the past. However, these processes are poorly documented during the 40 kyr world in the mid‐early Pleistocene, when glacial‐interglacial cycles mainly varied at the 41 kyr obliquity band. Here, we present multiple‐proxy marine records from a site directly impacted by the ITF and we examine terrigenous input and productivity changes in this region over the last 2,000 kyr. Our results suggest that northwest Australia underwent a step of increased aridification and that productivity in the Timor Sea declined during the transition from ∼1,700 to ∼1,400 ka, due to restriction of the ITF, warm pool contraction, and decreased nutrient supply from the Pacific source water. Key Points: Northwest Australia underwent aridification from ∼1,700 to 1,400 ka due to restricted Indonesian Throughflow and warm pool contractionDecreased productivity in the Timor Sea from ∼1,700 to 1,400 ka reflected decreased nutrient supply from Pacific source waterOrbital variation in productivity and terrigenous input in the Timor Sea during the 40 kyr world are driven by multiple mechanisms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in tropical precipitation over the past millennia have usually been associated with latitudinal displacements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recent studies provide new evidence that contraction and expansion of the tropical rain belt may also have contributed to ITCZ variability on centennial timescales. Over tropical South America few records point to a similar interpretation, which prevents a clear diagnosis of ITCZ changes in the region. In order to improve our understanding of equatorial rain belt variability, our study presents a reconstruction of precipitation for the last 3200 years from the northeastern Brazil (NEB) region, an area solely influenced by ITCZ precipitation. We analyze oxygen isotopes in speleothems that serve as a faithful proxy for the past location of the southern margin of the ITCZ. Our results, in comparison with other ITCZ proxies, indicate that the range of seasonal migration, contraction, and expansion of the ITCZ was not symmetrical around the Equator on secular and multidecadal timescales. A new NEB ITCZ pattern emerges based on the comparison between two distinct proxies that characterize the ITCZ behavior during the last 2500 years, with an ITCZ zonal pattern between NEB and the eastern Amazon. In NEB, the period related to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA – 950 to 1250 CE) was characterized by an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions. These drier conditions persisted until the onset of the period corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA) in 1560 CE, representing the longest dry period over the last 3200 years in NEB. The ITCZ was apparently forced by teleconnections between Atlantic and Pacific that controlled the position, intensity, and extent of the Walker cell over South America, changing the zonal ITCZ characteristics, while sea surface temperature changes in both the Pacific and Atlantic stretched or weakened the ITCZ-related rainfall meridionally over NEB. Wetter conditions started around 1500 CE in NEB. During the last 500 years, our speleothems document the occurrence of some of the strongest drought events over the last centuries, which drastically affected population and environment of NEB during the Portuguese colonial period. The historical droughts were able to affect the karst system and led to significant impacts over the entire NEB region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Whether the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is controlled by local or remote insolation at the orbital band remains uncertain. Here, we perform a transient simulation forced by Earth's orbital parameters between 400 and 350 ka BP, a period characterized by significant contrast between local and remote insolation, to identify the SASM's response to insolation forcing. Simulation results suggest that the primary driver of orbital‐scale SASM variability is the Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude June insolation, as opposed to local insolation. High June insolation in the Southern Hemisphere might reduce the SASM intensity. Remote insolation influences the SASM by altering the latitudinal thermal gradient and, consequently, the meridional position of the South Asian high (SAH). The SAH is associated with intense convection and hence drives the meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the SASM rain belt. Thus, orbital‐scale SASM variability is strongly related to remote insolation forcing. Plain Language Summary: Because the monsoon is directly related to the movement of the subsolar point, insolation changes are important in regulating the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) intensity at an orbital timescale. However, it remains unclear whether the SASM is driven by local insolation that directly strikes southern Asia, or remote insolation in the high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere at the precession band. We find a time window between 400 and 350 ka BP (ka = thousand years, BP = before present) when local and remote insolations differ significantly, allowing us to determine which insolation dominates the SASM at orbital timescales. We use an Earth system model with orbital forcing to run a transient simulation between 400 and 350 ka BP. Simulations suggest that the SASM is primarily influenced by Northern Hemisphere high‐latitude summer insolation rather than local insolation. Additionally, Southern Hemisphere insolation has a negative impact on orbital‐scale SASM variability. Remote insolation influences the SASM by inducing an anomalous meridional thermal gradient, which moves the South Asian high and thus the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Our findings are significant for future SASM projections because the obvious difference between remote and local insolation will reappear in the next 50 ka. Key Points: Local insolation is not the direct driver for orbital‐scale variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM)The meridional shift of the South Asian high (SAH) affects orbital‐scale SASM variabilityRemote insolation influences the meridional shift in the SAH through altering the latitudinal thermal contrast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is an important driver of winter precipitation variability over western North America as a whole, but ENSO exhibits a weak and inconsistent relationship with precipitation in several critically important headwaters including the upper Colorado River Basin. We present interactions between North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ENSO that influence western U.S. precipitation, accounting for substantial variability in areas where ENSO alone yields limited guidance. Specifically, we performed a statistical analysis on hemispheric SSTs and western U.S. winter precipitation in a century of observations and a 10,000-year perpetual current-climate simulation. In both frameworks, the leading coupled pattern is ENSO, and the second pattern links an Atlantic Quadpole Mode (AQM) of SST variability to precipitation anomalies over most of the western U.S., including the transition zone where ENSO provides little predictability. The AQM SST anomalies are expansive in latitude, but its primary mechanism appears to involve a strengthening/shifting of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over northern South America and the tropical Atlantic. The ENSO pattern accounts for a larger fraction of the total covariance between SSTs and precipitation (65% versus 12% for the AQM pattern), but the percent anomalies of precipitation associated with ENSO and the AQM are comparable in magnitude, meaning 20% or larger over much of the western U.S. The interaction between ENSO and AQM influences precipitation across the western U.S., with cold AQM generally reducing precipitation irrespective of ENSO whereas warm AQM increases the amount of precipitation and the area of influence of ENSO; knowledge of these interactions can increase predictability of western U.S. precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mesoscale orography over one of the wettest regions of the world makes the Northeast India (NEI) vulnerable to hydrological disasters while sustaining a biodiversity "hotspot." The monsoon rainy season over the NEI is known to be longer than June–September (JJAS), but an objective definition has been lacking. Understanding the drivers and predictability of rainfall variability over the region is key for sustainable development planning and adaptation to increasing disasters in the backdrop of a warming climate but remained poor due to lack of a working definition of "summer monsoon season" over NEI. Here, using the relationship between rainfall over the region and winds at 850 hPa over North Bay of Bengal (BoB), we provide an objective definition of the monsoon season over NEI and argue that the "summer monsoon rainy season" over the NEI (NEIR) is from May to September (MJJAS). In contrast to a significant negative relationship between JJAS Central India (CI) rainfall and a JJAS El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, the MJJAS rainfall over the NEI has no relationship with MJJAS or JJAS ENSO. Instead, we unravel that (a) the tropical Northwest‐Pacific (TNWP) sea surface temperature (SST), (b) the South Equatorial Indian Ocean Dipole (SEIOD) and (c) the Atlantic Zonal mode (AZM) are potential drivers of the NEIR variability. Using a causal inference algorithm, namely the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) method, we show that SEIOD directly influences NEIR while TNWP SST has a two‐way connection with the NEIR. While "internal variability" may be higher over the NEI, significant modulation of the variances of the subseasonal fluctuations by predictable drivers like the Atlantic Niño and North Atlantic water temperature provides optimism for seasonal prediction of the NEIR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18 O p) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18 O p to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18 O p and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM withdrawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability in the Tropical Atlantic is complex with strong ocean–atmosphere coupling, where the sea surface temperature variability impacts the hydroclimate of the surrounding continents. Most of the Tropical Atlantic interannual variability is explained by its equatorial (Atlantic Zonal Mode, AZM) and meridional (Atlantic Meridional Mode, AMM) modes of variability. Our results using an ensemble of 37 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 historical simulations show multidecadal changes in the Tropical Atlantic variability from 1900 to 2014. Within it, most models (at least 60%) show a decrease in variability after the 1970 s, in accordance with observational data sets. The agreement among simulations points out the role of the external forcing. After 1970, an anthropogenically induced warming trend is observed in the equatorial Atlantic accompanied by a weakening of the winds. This drives a weakening in the Bjerknes Feedback by deepening the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Atlantic, reduced SST sensitivity to thermocline anomalies, thus decreasing AZM variability. The interplay of the meridional asymmetric warming in the Tropical Atlantic related to the anthropogenic forcing, the relaxed northeast trade winds, and the background state of the negative Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, decreases AMM variability despite the individual increase in variability of the North and South Tropical Atlantic. Associated with these factors the African Sahel shows a positive precipitation trend and the Intertropical Convergence Zone tends to shift northward, which reinforces the increased precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) mode is a dominant component of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the northern tropical Atlantic, which is crucial to the occurrence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study utilizes the historical simulation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) to evaluate the simulations of the NTA mode and NTA–ENSO connection. We found that the CMIP5 and CMIP6 could reproduce the spatial pattern of the NTA mode similarly. Most of them could reasonably reproduce the spatial pattern of the NTA mode similar to the observation. Still, there are some differences in the central values and position of the NTA mode. In addition, the analysis further suggests that the CMIP5/CMIP6 models have a large diversity in the NTA–ENSO connection, which may be due to their differences in simulating the spring climatological mean Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) precipitation and spring‐to‐summer NTA SST persistence. Models with stronger spring climatological mean Atlantic ITCZ precipitation in favor of the spring NTA‐related SST anomalies stimulate local precipitation anomalies, resulting in a more powerful atmospheric circulation reaction over the tropical Pacific. Additionally, the stronger spring‐to‐summer NTA SST persistence for sustaining the teleconnection, which constantly transmits impacts from the tropical Atlantic into the tropical Pacific. The CMIP6 models show improvements to the CMIP5 models regarding simulations of the spring climatological mean Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and spring‐to‐summer NTA SST persistence. Therefore, the CMIP6 models simulate the NTA–ENSO connection better than the CMIP5 models. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly affects global climate variability through teleconnections. In particular, previous studies have suggested that ENSO impacts sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). In addition, previous studies also showed that the NTA SST might feed back to the development of ENSO events and as a predictor for improving ENSO prediction. Therefore, evaluating the capability to capture the NTA mode and NTA–ENSO connection in the state‐of‐the‐art CMIP climate models gives some implications to improve the understanding of inter‐basin interactions and the ability of climate models to predict El Niño. The results show that the CMIP5 and CMIP6 could reproduce the spatial pattern of the NTA mode similarly. In addition, the CMIP5/CMIP6 models have a large diversity in the NTA–ENSO connection, which may be due to their differences in simulating the spring climatological mean Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and spring‐to‐summer NTA SST persistence. The CMIP6 models simulate the NTA–ENSO connection better than the CMIP5 models because the CMIP6 models show improvements to the CMIP5 models regarding simulations of the above two factors. Key Points: CMIP5 and CMIP6 could reproduce the spatial pattern of the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) mode similarlyCMIP5/CMIP6 have large diversity in the NTA‐El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) connection, CMIP6 simulate the connection better than CMIP5Differences in simulating the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) precipitation and NTA sea surface temperature persistence cause the bias in the NTA–ENSO connection [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are no well-accepted mechanisms that can explain the annual frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) both globally and in individual ocean basins. Recent studies using idealized models showed that the climatological frequency of TC genesis (TCG) is proportional to the Coriolis parameter associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position. In this study, we investigate the effect of the ITCZ position on TCG on the interannual time scale using observations over 1979–2020. Our results show that the TCG frequency is significantly correlated with the ITCZ position in the North Atlantic (NA) and western North Pacific (WNP), with more TCG events in years when the ITCZ is farther poleward. The ITCZ–TCG relationship in NA is dominated by TCG events in the tropics (0°–20°N), while the relationship in WNP is due to TCs formed in the east sector (140°E–180°). We further confirmed that ENSO has little effect on the ITCZ–TCG relationship despite the fact that it can affect the ITCZ position and TCG frequency separately. In NA and WNP, a poleward shift of ITCZ is significantly associated with large-scale environment changes favoring TCG in the main development region (MDR). However, the basinwide TCG frequency has a weak relationship with the ITCZ in other ocean basins. We showed that a poleward ITCZ in the eastern North Pacific and South Pacific favors TCG on the poleward flank of the MDR, while it suppresses TCG on the equatorward flank, leading to insignificant change in the basinwide TCG frequency. In the south Indian Ocean, the ITCZ position has weak effect on TCG frequency due to the mixed influences of environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the transient evolution of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) responses to a constant northern high-latitude solar heating in fully coupled CESM 1.2. The study identifies two stages through multiple ensemble runs. 1) In the first 3 years, a hemispherically asymmetric pattern emerges, caused by air–sea interactions associated with the anomalous cross-equatorial Hadley cell. The northern tropics experience warming that is blocked north of the equator by the intertropical convergence zone. The southeast Pacific cooling reaches the equatorial region and is amplified by the equatorial Ekman divergence. 2) Within a decade, the equatorial cooling is replaced by warming in the eastern equatorial basin. The anomalous warming that appears faster than the time scales of the oceanic ventilation is attributed to anomalous meridional heat convergence and weakening of the northern subtropical cell. Our findings highlight the influence of ocean dynamics on the temporal and spatial evolution of tropical SST response to hemispherically asymmetric heating. The initial cooling caused by Ekman divergence delays the arrival of slow warming, while initial wind and temperature anomalies set the stage for the weakening of the subtropical cell. The results have important implications for understanding the evolution of tropical SST patterns in observational records and future climate change simulations, as they show strong interhemispheric temperature asymmetry in the extratropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate responses to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) fluctuations are investigated in a hierarchy of sensitivity experiments. We modify the baroclinic component of the North Atlantic Ocean currents online in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to reproduce typical AMOC multidecadal variability found in a preindustrial control simulation in the same model. An analogous experiment is also conducted using a slab-ocean experiment. The responses to a strong AMOC include a widespread warming in the Northern Hemisphere and a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean. The driving mechanism of climate responses is then investigated with the changes in the energy flows in the ocean and atmosphere. The large-scale atmospheric changes in the tropics are organized by an anomalous cross-equatorial Hadley circulation transporting energy southward and moisture and heat northward. Changes in the Indo-Pacific Ocean circulation and heat transport, driven by the wind stress associated with the abnormal Hadley cell, damp the atmospheric responses. The lack of Indo-Pacific transport and ocean heat storage leads to amplified atmospheric changes in the slab-ocean experiments, which are further amplified by a positive feedback due to the interhemispheric antisymmetric changes in low cloud cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly skewness encapsulates the nonlinear processes of strong ENSO events and affects future climate projections. Yet, its response to CO2 forcing remains not well understood. Here, we find ENSO skewness hysteresis in a large ensemble CO2 removal simulation. The positive SST skewness in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific gradually weakens (most pronounced near the dateline) in response to increasing CO2, but weakens even further once CO2 is ramped down. Further analyses reveal that hysteresis of the Intertropical Convergence Zone migration leads to more active and farther eastward-located strong eastern Pacific El Niño events, thus decreasing central Pacific ENSO skewness by reducing the amplitude of the central Pacific positive SST anomalies and increasing the scaling effect of the eastern Pacific skewness denominator, i.e., ENSO intensity, respectively. The reduction of eastern Pacific El Niño maximum intensity, which is constrained by the SST zonal gradient of the projected background El Niño-like warming pattern, also contributes to a reduction of eastern Pacific SST skewness around the CO2 peak phase. This study highlights the divergent responses of different strong El Niño regimes in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its response to carbon dioxide reduction, revealing strong hysteresis effects in sea surface temperature variability and global teleconnections. Topics include the significant increase in Eastern Pacific SST anomaly variance during CO2 ramp-down, attributed to the tropical Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone's meridional position response, impacting ENSO's prolonged influence under varied future mitigation pathways.

Despite the fact that the response of tropical hydroclimate to North Atlantic cooling events during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) has been extensively studied in African, South American and Indonesia, the nature of such responses remains debated. Here we investigate the tropical hydroclimate pattern over the Indo-Asian-Australian monsoon region during the HS1 by integrating hydroclimatic records, and examining a δ18Oseawater record from Globigerinoides ruber (white) in the tropical Indian Ocean. Our findings indicate that tropical hydrological conditions were synchronously arid in both hemispheres during the early HS1 (~18.3-16.3 ka) in the Indo-Asian-Australian monsoon region, except for a narrow, wet hydrological belt in northern low latitudes, suggesting the existence of a contracted tropical precipitation belt at that time. This study reveals that the meltwater discharge and resulting changes in global temperatures and El Niño exerted a profound influence on the tropical hydroclimate in the Indo-Asian-Australian monsoon region during the early HS1. New and existing paleoclimatic records show the rain-belt range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Indo-Asian-Australian monsoon region contracted to the northern low latitudes during the early Heinrich Stadial 1 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most influential interannual climate variability on Earth. The tendency of the mature phase of ENSO, characterized by the strongest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, to appear during the boreal winter is known as seasonal phase locking. Climate models are challenged by biases in simulating ENSO seasonal phase locking. Here, we evaluated the ENSO phase-locking simulation performance in 50 models of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and found that the models with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) poleward bias tended to simulate more ENSO events that peaked out of the boreal winter season. The contributions of the ITCZ poleward bias to the ENSO phase-locking bias were also evaluated, yielding a correlation coefficient of 0.55, which can explain approximately 30% of the ENSO seasonal phase-locking bias. The mechanism that influences the simulation of ENSO seasonal phase locking was also assessed. The ITCZ poleward bias induces a dry bias over the equatorial Pacific, especially during the boreal summer. During ENSO events, the meridional movement of the ITCZ is prevented, and the equatorial precipitation and convection anomalies that respond to ENSO events are also restrained. The restrained convection anomaly weakens the ENSO-related zonal wind anomaly, triggering a weaker eastern tropical Pacific thermocline anomaly during the following autumn. The weakened thermocline anomaly cannot sustain further development of ENSO-related SST anomalies. Therefore, ENSO events in models containing the ITCZ poleward bias are restrained during the boreal summer and autumn and, thus, tend to peak out of the winter season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical areas with mean upward motion}and as such the zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)}are projected to contract under global warming. To understand this process, a simple model based on dry static energy and moisture equations is introduced for zonally symmetric overturning driven by sea surface temperature (SST). Processes governing ascent area fraction and zonal mean precipitation are examined for insight into Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Bulk parameters governing radiative feedbacks and moist static energy transport in the simple model are estimated from the AMIP ensemble. Uniform warming in the simple model produces ascent area contraction and precipitation intensification}similar to observations and climate models. Contributing effects include stronger water vapor radiative feedbacks, weaker cloud-radiative feedbacks, stronger convection-circulation feedbacks, and greater poleward moisture export. The simple model identifies parameters consequential for the inter-AMIPmodel spread; an ensemble generated by perturbing parameters governing shortwave water vapor feedbacks and gross moist stability changes under warming tracks inter-AMIP-model variations with a correlation coefficient ;0.46. The simple model also predicts the multimodel mean changes in tropical ascent area and precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the simple model reproduces relationships among ascent area precipitation, ascent strength, and ascent area fraction observed in AMIP models. A substantial portion of the inter-AMIP-model spread is traced to the spread in how moist static energy and vertical velocity profiles change under warming, which in turn impact the gross moist stability in deep convective regions}highlighting the need for observational constraints on these quantities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents results of the structural and morphological analysis of the fracture zones that are part of Doldrums Megatransform System (DMS), located in the northern part of the Equatorial Atlantic (6.5°–9° N) that include Vernadskiy and Bogdanov transform faults and the Doldrums and Pushcharovskiy megatransforms. Bathymetric map, based on the multibeam echo sounding data, collected during the 45th cruise of the R/V Akademik Nikolaj Strakhov was used for this analysis. It was established that large-scale variations in the width of fracture zone valleys are determined by the distribution of stresses perpendicular to the fracture zone. In the areas with compressive stresses, the fracture zone valleys are narrower and the extension areas are wider. The difference in geodynamic settings within the DMS is due to the difference in spreading directions, which change from 89° to 93° when moving from south to north. The depth of fracture zone valleys consistently increases from the periphery of the DMS (Bogdanov and Doldrums faults) to the center (Pushcharovskiy fracture zone) in accordance with a decrease in the upper mantle temperature. In each fracture zone, the valley depth decreases from the rift- fracture zone intersections towards the center of the active part to a certain background depth. It is assumed that this phenomenon is the result of the uplift of the valley bottom, which occurred due to the decompaction of the lithosphere, caused by the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks. The violation of the revealed variations in the width and depth of fracture zone valley patterns occurs as a result of various ridges and uplifts formation in the fracture zone. In the axial zones of the active parts of the fracture zone valleys median ridges are widespread, extending parallel to the fracture zone and representing serpentinite diapirs squeezed out above the bottom surface. Transverse ridges that were formed 10‒11 million years ago as a result of the lithospheric plate edge flexural bending under extensional conditions are now located in the western passive parts on the southern sides of the of Doldrums and Pushcharovskiy fracture zone valleys. The transverse ridge on the northern side of the Vernadskiy fracture zone, which includes Mount Peyve, was formed between 3.65‒2.4 Ma. Due to the frequent jumps of the spreading axis in this region, it was divided into three segments. There are interfracture zone ridges in megatransforms, which in the active part consist of two fracture zone valleys. The times of their formation were in the Pushcharovskiy megatransform, 30‒32 million years ago and in the Doldrums megatransform, about 4 million years ago. Due to the curvilinearity of the outlines and under the pressure of moving lithospheric plates, the interfracture zone ridges experience longitudinal (along the fault) compressive and tensile stresses, which are compensated by vertical uplifts of their separate blocks and the formation of depressions, pull apart depressions, and spreading centers (the latter are only in Pushcharovskiy megatransform). The structure-forming processes that determine the patterns and morphology of the fracture zones as a part of the DMS are related in their origin to the spreading and transform geodynamic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study investigates changes in Austral Summer Monsoon based on numerical experiments conducted with the coupled ICTP-CGCM model. The interannual variability and intensity of the monsoonal system have been analyzed from vorticity indices and air-sea interaction in Africa, Australia and South America. We focus on interglacial stages MIS5e (127 ka), MIS11c (409 ka) and MIS31 (1072 ka). Results show orbitally-driven decreased summer precipitation and slightly shifted monsoon onset and demise with respect to present day conditions. Sensitivity experiments indicate that monsoons are forced not only by the dominant effect of insolation, but also by remote teleconnections, such as the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins. During those interglacial stages, cooling occurs in the Southern Hemisphere whereas Northern Hemisphere substantially warms. This induces meridional displacement of oceanic subtropical high pressure systems and the equatorial convergence zone. Regionally, these mechanisms contribute to droughts over the Amazon and northeastern Brazil, northern Australia and southern Africa. Monsoonal rainfall shows different responses to precessional forcing, as well as the relationship between the monsoon and Niño 3.4 differs among the interglacial stages. Results also indicate a weaker influence of the equatorial Pacific Ocean on the Austral summer monsoon for the MIS31 interglacial stage as compared to current climate conditions across Africa and Australia. On the other hand, South America monsoon is strongly influenced by Niño 3.4 and tropical Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of Sahel summer rainfall in the context of global warming is a severe socio-economic concern because of its widespread influences on local agriculture, water resource management, food security, infrastructure planning, and ecosystems. Based on the mid-Pliocene simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 and the historical simulations and shared socio-economic pathway 5–8.5 experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, the present study contrasts the Sahel summer rainfall changes between the past mid-Pliocene and near future global warming climates. The results show that the Western African summer monsoon (WASM) circulation, closely linked with the Sahel summer rainfall change, tends to strengthen in both the past and future global warming climates, but the monsoonal circulation strengthening is much more intense in the past warm period than in the projected warm future. This causes that the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean increase ratio of Sahel summer rainfall in the past warming climate is about twice to three times larger than that in the future warming climate for the same increase of global mean surface temperature (the regional rainfall increase ratio in the MME mean: about 19.6% per one degree Celsius of global warming in the mid-Pliocene simulations versus about 7.7% per one degree Celsius of global warming in the SSP5-8.5 future projections). Such a striking discrepancy in the regional circulation and hydrological cycle changes is mainly attributed to a dramatically stronger warming over the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland during the mid-Pliocene warm period relative to the projected near future. The more significant northern high-latitude warming during the mid-Pliocene enhances the meridional temperature gradient between the extratropical and tropical regions, which could induce an excessive northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and a stronger WASM, and thus result in a more intense hydrological cycle around the Sahel region. Our results highlight that besides the global mean temperature increase, meridional warming patterns are also essential for the changes of WASM and regional hydrological cycle in a warmer world. Implications for projecting the regional monsoon and hydrological cycle changes at longer time scales than in the near future are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Hemispheric summer monsoons were more intense during the mid-Holocene (MH ~ 6000 years ago) and coincided with a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to the pre-industrial (PI) climate. Ancient civilizations in the Indus valley, Mesopotamia, and Egypt appear to have flourished during this period, thanks to abundant water availability. This study exploits a high-resolution variable grid global atmosphere model to understand the role of orbital forcing and ocean surface conditions in strengthening the monsoons and shifting the ITCZ northward over Africa, India, and East Asia during the MH. The combined impact of orbital forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions led to a change in monsoon rainfall of around 42, 30, 21, and 41% over Africa, East Asia, India, and northwest India (NWI) relative to the PI conditions. Changes in orbital parameters alone account for more than 36 and 26% of total rainfall increases in Africa and East Asia. Over the Indian subcontinent, the strengthening of monsoon was primarily a combined effect of SST and orbital forcing. In contrast, the SST boundary condition alone could explain the 39% of rainfall increase over NWI, where the Indus valley civilization once existed. Through moisture budget analysis, the study further illustrates the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors responsible for the changes in monsoon precipitation. The enhanced monsoon resulted in a northward shift of ITCZ by around 3°N, 1.9°N, and 2.5°N over Africa, East Asia, and India, respectively, compared to its PI position. Analogous to the precipitation changes, orbital forcing mostly mediated ITCZ changes across Africa and East Asia, but the combined impact of orbital forcing and SST was responsible for the changes over India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relatively high opal concentrations are measured in equatorial Atlantic sediments from the most recent deglaciation. To shed light on their causes, seven cores were analyzed for their content of siliceous (diatom, silicoflagellates, radiolarians, phytoliths, and sponge spicules) and calcareous (coccolithophores) microfossils. An early deglacial signal is detected at the time of rising boreal summer insolation ca. 18 ka by the coccolithophores. The surface freshening is likely due to the rain belt associated with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), implying its southward shift relatively to its present‐day average positioning. The diatom assemblages corresponding to the following increase in diatom abundances ca. 15.5 ka suggest the formation of a cold tongue of upwelled water associated with tropical instability waves propagating westward. Such conditions occur at present during boreal summer, when southerly trade winds are intensified, and the ITCZ shifts northward. The presence of the diatom Ethmodiscus rex (Wallich) Hendey and the coccolithophore Florisphera profunda indicates a deep thermocline and nutrient enrichment of the lower photic zone, revealing that Si‐rich southern sourced water (SSW) likely contributed to enhanced primary productivity during this time interval. The discrepancies between the maximum opal concentrations and siliceous marine microfossils records evidence the contribution of freshwater diatoms and phytoliths, indicative of other processes. The definition of the nature of the opal record suggests successive productivity conditions associated with specific atmospheric settings determining the latitudinal ITCZ positioning and the development of oceanic processes; and major oceanic circulation changes permitting the contribution of SSW to marine productivity at this latitude. Key Points: Microfossil evidence for the contribution by Si‐rich southern‐sourced water to enhanced primary productivity in the equatorial AtlanticThe position of the intertropical convergence zone plays a role in determining the different productivity conditionsOpal accumulation does not necessarily reflect solely diatom burial [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducted high-resolution paleoclimatic analyses based on the identification of palynological groups of late Aptian age (biozone Sergipea veriverrucata) in the Bragança and Codó formations within the Bragança–Viseu, São Luís, and Parnaíba basins. The analysis comprised 40 palynological samples, with 200 palynomorphs per slide counted when possible. Bioclimatic analysis was mainly supported by the identification of botanical affinities, and ecological and climatic parameters such as the wet / arid trend (Fs/X), Shannon–Wiener diversity, and indicator species analysis (IndVal) were used. Statistical analyses such as principal component and cluster analyses were employed to support the paleoclimatic interpretations. The study recognized 69 genera distributed among the main groups of living plants, including bryophytes, ferns, lycophytes, gymnosperms, and angiosperms. It was possible to attribute botanical affinity in 94.2 % of the taxa, and nine genera occurred in all sections studied: Afropollis, Araucariacites, Callialasporites, Cicatricosisporites, Classopollis, Cyathidites, Deltoidospora, Equisetosporites, and Verrucosisporites, with Classopollis being the most abundant. The stratigraphic distribution of the bioclimatic groups (hydrophytes, hygrophytes, lowland tropical flora, upland flora, and xerophytes) allowed for the identification of climatic phases: pre-evaporitic, evaporitic, and post-evaporitic. In the pre-evaporitic phase, the most significant abundances were between the hygrophytes and upland flora, indicating a certain level of humidity. Xerophytes were the most abundant in all phases, with a conspicuous increase in the evaporitic phase, reflecting an increase in aridity. In the post-evaporitic phase, there was a significant increase in the upland flora with the return of wetter conditions. This study confirmed an increasing humidity trend in the analyzed sections, probably owing to the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone that was already operating during the late Aptian. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study conducted to analyze whether the Hadley cell (HC) edge's shift towards poles could be reversed through removal of carbon dioxide (CO2). It states that reducing CO2 concentrations does not return the poleward-shifted HC edge to its original state. It mentions that hemispherically asymmetric changes are linked to variations in vertical wind shear due to the prolonged ocean response to CO2 removal.

We investigated long‐term trends in convective and large‐scale precipitation within the Intertropical Convergence Zone during the boreal summer (June–August) for the period 1980–2020 using five different reanalysis datasets. We found that there exists a large diversity in the trends. In particular, we focused on the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Japanese 55‐year reanalysis (JRA55) datasets; because the convective precipitation amount statistically significantly decreases in the former, but increases in the later. In contrast, the large‐scale precipitation amount increases in both of these reanalysis datasets. We examine the physical factors leading to contrasting features in the respective trends in convective and large‐scale precipitation amount between two reanalysis datasets. A significant decrease of convective available potential energy, which is caused by enhanced atmospheric stability, leads to a decreasing trend of convective precipitation amount in the ERA5 dataset. In contrast, a significant increase of precipitable water is noted in JRA55 dataset. Additionally, the Clausius–Clapeyron relation is larger in JRA55 than ERA5, implying that the sensitivity of humidity to the temperature change is larger in JRA55 than that in ERA5 dataset. On the other hand, the increase of the large‐scale precipitation is associated with the increase of medium cloud amount in both ERA5 and JRA55 datasets. Plain Language Summary: Typically, the total amount of precipitation is divided into convective precipitation and large‐scale precipitation in which the associated mechanisms are quite different. We investigated long‐term trends in convective and large‐scale precipitation within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, where tropical rainfall is concentrated in a narrow band that accounts for 32% of global precipitation, during the boreal summer for 1980–2020 using five different reanalysis datasets. We focused on the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis version 5 and the Japanese 55‐year reanalysis datasets; because the convective precipitation amount decreases significantly in the former, but increases in the later. In contrast, the large‐scale precipitation amount increases in both of these reanalysis datasets. The interesting challenge in these results is that there is little agreement in the mechanisms for those trends and this disagreement is most notable in terms of convective precipitation. If our reanalysis products disagree in terms of mechanisms for the trends, understanding future projections will be even more difficult. Key Points: We investigated long‐term trends in convective and large‐scale precipitation within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), using five different reanalysis datasetsA significant decrease of convective available potential energy leads to a decreasing trend of convective precipitation amount in the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), which is in contrast to Japanese 55‐year reanalysis (JRA55)The increasing of the medium cloud may contribute to the increase of large‐scale precipitation amount within the ITCZ in the ERA5 and JRA55 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the unique local air chemistry, the transport history of tropospheric air masses above the remote tropical West Pacific (TWP) is reflected by local ozone (O3) and relative humidity (RH) characteristics. In boreal winter, the TWP is the main global entry point for air masses into the stratosphere and therefore a key region of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. However, a long-term in situ monitoring of tropospheric O3 to assess the variability of TWP air masses and the respective controlling processes has yet been missing. The aim of our study was to identify air masses with different origins and pathways to the TWP and their seasonality using the new Palau time series (2016–2019) of mostly fortnightly Electrochemical Concentration Cell ozone and radio soundings. Based on monthly statistics of O3 volume mixing ratios and RH we defined a free tropospheric locally-controlled background and analyzed anomalies for both tracers in the 5–10 km altitude range. We found that anomalously high O3 indicates a remote origin, while RH is controlled by a range of dynamical processes resulting in a bimodality in RH anomalies. The Palau time series confirms a year-round presence of low O3 background air masses and a seasonal mid-tropospheric cycle in O3 with a prominent anti-correlation between O3 volume mixing ratios and RH. We assumed five different types of air masses with differing tracer characteristics and origin which we validated by analyzing backward trajectories calculated with the transport module of the Lagrangian chemistry and transport model ATLAS. The main result is a clear separation of origin and pathways for the two most contrasting types of air masses, i.e. ozone-poor and humid versus ozone-rich and dry air. Both, potential vorticity and air mass origin analyses, reveal no indication for stratospheric influence for the ozone-rich dry air masses. Rather, we found indications for O3 production due to biomass burning or anthropogenic pollution at the origins of these air masses and drying due to clear sky subsidence during long-range transport. The seasonal occurrence is tied to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone which opens a pathway from potential source regions which are confirmed by the trajectory analysis. We conclude, that dominant ozone-poor and humid air masses are of local or Pacific convective origin and occur year-round, but dominate from August until October. Anomalously dry and ozone-rich air is generated in Tropical Asia and subsequently transported to the TWP via an anti-cyclonic route, mostly from February to April. The areas of origin suggest different sources of ground pollution as a cause for O3 production. We propose large-scale descent within the tropical troposphere and subsequent radiative cooling in connection with the Hadley circulation as responsible for the vertical displacement and dehydration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the hydroclimate representations of precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) in tropical South America (TSA) is crucial for climate reconstruction from available speleothem caves. Our preceding study (Part I) highlights a heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over the TSA during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka before present), characterized by a northwest–southeast (NW–SE) dipole in both rainfall and δ18Op, with opposite signs between central-western Amazon and eastern Brazil. Mechanisms of such δ18Op dipole response are further investigated in this study with the aid of moisture tagging simulations. In response to increased meltwater discharge, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrates southward, causing a moisture source location shift and depleting the isotopic value of the vapor transported into eastern Brazil, which almost entirely contributes to the δ18Op depletion in eastern Brazil (SE pole). In contrast, the moisture source location change and local condensation change (due to the lowering convergence level and increased rain reevaporation in unsaturated subcloud layers) contribute nearly equally to the δ18Op enrichment in the central-western Amazon (NW pole). Therefore, although a clear inverse relationship between δ18Op and rainfall in both dipole regions seems to support the “amount effect,” we argue that the local rainfall amount only partially interprets the millennial δ18Op change in the central-western Amazon, while δ18Op does not document local rainfall change in eastern Brazil. Thus, the paleoclimate community should be cautious when using δ18Op as a proxy for past local precipitation in the TSA region. Finally, we discuss the discrepancy between the model and speleothem proxies on capturing the millennial δ18Op dipole response and pose a challenge in reconciling the discrepancy. Significance Statement We want to comprehensively understand the hydroclimate footprints of δ18Op and the mechanisms of the millennial variability of δ18Op over tropical South America with the help of water tagging experiments performed by the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). We argue that the millennial δ18Op change in eastern Brazil mainly documents the moisture source location change associated with ITCZ migration and the change of the isotopic value of the incoming water vapor, instead of the local rainfall amount. In contrast, the central-western Amazon partially documents the moisture source location shift and local precipitation change. Our study cautions that one should not simply resort to the isotopic “amount effect” to reconstruct past precipitation in tropical regions without studying the mechanisms behind it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oxygen isotope speleothems have been widely used to infer past climate changes over tropical South America (TSA). However, the spatial patterns of the millennial precipitation and precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) response have remained controversial, and their response mechanisms are unclear. In particular, it is not clear whether the regional precipitation represents the intensity of the millennial South American summer monsoon (SASM). Here, we study the TSA hydroclimate variability during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka ago) by combining transient simulations of an isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM) and the speleothem records over the lowland TSA. Our model reasonably simulates the deglacial evolution of hydroclimate variables and water isotopes over the TSA, albeit underestimating the amplitude of variability. North Atlantic meltwater discharge is the leading factor driving the TSA’s millennial hydroclimate variability. The spatial pattern of both precipitation and δ18Op show a northwest–southeast dipole associated with the meridional migration of the intertropical convergence zone, instead of a continental-wide coherent change as inferred in many previous works on speleothem records. The dipole response is supported by multisource paleoclimate proxies. In response to increased meltwater forcing, the SASM weakened (characterized by a decreased low-level easterly wind) and consequently reduced rainfall in the western Amazon and increased rainfall in eastern Brazil. A similar dipole response is also generated by insolation, ice sheets, and greenhouse gases, suggesting an inherent stability of the spatial characteristics of the SASM regardless of the external forcing and time scales. Finally, we discuss the potential reasons for the model–proxy discrepancy and pose the necessity to build more paleoclimate proxy data in central-western Amazon. Significance Statement We want to reconcile the controversy on whether there is a coherent or heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over tropical South America and to clearly understand the forcing mechanisms behind it. Our isotope-enabled transient simulations fill the gap in speleothem reconstructions to capture a complete picture of millennial precipitation/δ18Op and monsoon intensity change. We highlight a heterogeneous dipole response in precipitation and δ18Op on millennial and orbital time scales. Increased meltwater discharge shifts ITCZ southward and favors a wet condition in coastal Brazil. Meanwhile, the low-level easterly and the summer monsoon intensity reduced, causing a dry condition in the central-western Amazon. However, the millennial variability of hydroclimate response is underestimated in our model, together with the lack of direct paleoclimate proxies in the central-west Amazon, complicating the interpretation of changes in specific paleoclimate events and posing a challenge to constraining the spatial range of the dipole. Therefore, we emphasize the necessity to increase the source of proxies, enhance proxy interpretations, and improve climate model performance in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work is to assess the wind resources of the east coast of Maranhão, Brazil. Wind profilers were combined with micrometeorological towers and atmospheric reanalysis to investigate micro- and mesoscale aspects of wind variability. Field campaigns recorded winds in the dry and wet seasons, under the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The dry season was characterized by strong winds (8 to 12 m s − 1 ) from the northeast. Surface heat fluxes were generally positive (250 to 320 W m − 2 ) at midday and negative (−10 to −20 W m − 2 ) during the night. Convective profiles predominated near the beach, with strongly stable conditions rarely occurring before sunrise. Further inland, convective to strongly convective profiles occurred during the day, and neutral to strongly stable profiles at night. Wind speeds decreased during the rainy season (4 to 8 m s − 1 ), with increasingly easterly and southeasterly components. Cloud cover and precipitation reduced midday heat fluxes (77 W m − 2 ). Profiles were convective during midday and stable to strongly stable at night. Terrain roughness increased with distance from the ocean ranging from smooth surfaces ( z o = 0.95 mm) and rough pastures ( z o = 15.33 mm) to crops and bushes ( z o = 52.68 mm), and trees and small buildings ( z o = 246.46 mm) farther inland. Seasonal variations of the mean flow and sea and land breezes produced distinct diurnal patterns of wind speeds. The strongest (weakest) breeze amplitudes were observed in the dry (rainy) period. Daily changes in heat fluxes and fetch over land controlled the characteristics of wind profiles. During sea breezes, winds approached the coast at right angles, resulting in shorter fetches over land that maintained or enhanced oceanic convective conditions. During land breezes, winds blew from the mainland or with acute angles against the coastline, resulting in large fetches with nighttime surface cooling, generating strongly stable profiles. Coastal observations demonstrated that with increasing monopiles from 100 to 130 m it is possible to obtain similar capacity factors of beachfront turbines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air-sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter-spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical-extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global temperatures rise due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, melting in Antarctica and Greenland is accelerating, initiating feedback systems that will result in record losses in sea and land ice by the end of this century if left unabated. The freshening of polar waters changes the production of deepwater masses such as the Antarctic Bottom Water and the North Atlantic Deep Water, which rely on salinity and temperature gradients to form. Thermohaline Circulation, dependent on these gradients, transports heat, nutrients, and carbon around the globe, but is disrupted as freshwater forcing from ice melt reduces the capacity for overturning of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (ΑMOC). As the ΑMOC weakens, it changes the trajectory of the Gulf Stream, which produces a southerly shift to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), altering the temperature of the lower atmosphere and thus precipitation over most of the Northern Hemisphere. Multidecadal and multiannual atmospheric circulation patterns are also affected, increasing the intensity and prevalence of storms in some regions, and drought conditions in others. Such climatic changes can have implications for food security through variations in land and water availability for agriculture, and through changes to ocean circulation that alter upwelling and marine primary productivity. Many countries that would be affected are the least developed and are already, or most at risk of becoming, food insecure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over one hundred years of vigorous progress in tropical cyclone (TC) research, the genesis of the cyclone (hereafter, tropical cyclogenesis) is remarkable as a doubtful subject. Furthermore, predicting tropical cyclogenesis, particularly in the lesser latitude, remains a significant challenge. Therefore, understanding the complex interactions in developing tropical cyclogenesis over the region is vital to improving tropical cyclogenesis forecasting. Hence, the Indonesia Maritime Continent is a tropical cyclone-free region due to decreasing the Coriolis effect. However, Seroja TC hit Flores (8.6° S, 120° E), east Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, on 4 April 2021, and was recorded as the first TC that occurred over the mainland, which brought a catastrophic disaster in the region. This study investigated the tropical cyclogenesis of Seroja by using observational and numerical studies. The results indicate that a marine heatwave and double vortices were favorable conditions that produced preconditions for developing tropical cyclogenesis over the Maluku Sea. Thus, tropical cyclogenesis is formed by the breakdown of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) associated with synoptic-scale wave train driven under the interaction of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) and equatorial Rossby waves. Moreover, our finding suggested that an extensive background cyclonic vorticity under the cold pool mechanisms is responsible for maintaining tropical cyclogenesis into a persistent Seroja TC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the evolution history of the southwest summer monsoon (SSM) throughout geological time, particularly during its strongest period in the Holocene, can improve our understanding of its variation and driving mechanisms, and even help predict future climate changes, due to its significant social and economic implications. Here, we reconstructed the history of chemical weathering intensity since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) based on clay mineral proxies [(illite/smectite)/(illite + chlorite) and illite crystallinity] obtained from Qionghai Lake sediments and examined its response to paleoclimate and SSM. Our findings indicate that the intensity of chemical weathering generally aligned with changes in paleoclimate, exhibiting strong chemical weathering intensity during warm and humid climate conditions. In addition, the intensity of chemical weathering basically tracks the evolution of the SSM since the LGM. Our results support the view that the highest SSM intensity occurred during the early‐middle Holocene, followed by gradual weakening during the late Holocene, with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation being the primary driver of the SSM evolution. The variations of the SSM and the corresponding intensity of chemical weathering were also influenced by the cumulative effects of glacier boundary conditions, North Atlantic climate fluctuations, and Intertropical Convergence Zone migrations. Key Points: Clay minerals can effectively reflect regional chemical weathering intensityChemical weathering intensity was following the monsoon variabilityThe strongest southwest summer monsoon occurred in the early‐middle Holocene [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake Petén Itzá (Guatemala) possesses one of the longest lacustrine sediment records in the northern Neotropics, which enabled study of paleoclimate variability in the region during the last ∼400000 years. We used geochemical (Ti, Ca/(Ti+Fe) and Mn/Fe) and mineralogical (carbonates, gypsum, quartz, clay) data from sediment core PI-2 to infer past changes in runoff, lake evaporation, organic matter sources and redox conditions in the water column, caused by hydrological changes in the northern Neotropics during Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 3–2. From 59 to 39 cal ka BP climate conditions were relatively wet, and the lake was marked by higher primary productivity and anoxic bottom waters. This wet environment was interrupted for two periods of possible low water level at 52 and 46 cal ka BP, when our data suggest higher evaporation, high terrestrial organic matter input and persistent oxic conditions. Between 39 and 23 cal ka BP, evaporation and input of terrestrial organic matter increased considerably, lake level declined, and lake bottom waters generally became oxic. These conditions reversed during the Last Glacial Maximum (23.5–18.0 cal ka BP), when runoff and lake productivity increased, and rising lake level caused bottom waters to again become anoxic. Comparison of our hydrologic proxy data with sea surface temperature anomalies between the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean suggests that changes in the intensity of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) may have influenced long-term changes in runoff during MISs 3–2. Higher intensity of the CLLJ during the onset of MIS 3 and the LGM might have led to greater runoff into the lake, whereas the MIS 3–2 transition experienced a weaker CLLJ and consequently less runoff. A refined, high-resolution age–depth model for the PI-2 sediment core enabled us to identify millennial-scale Greenland interstadials (GIs) 14–2, Greenland stadials (GSs) 14–2 and Heinrich stadials (HSs) 5–1. In general, HSs and GSs were characterized by drier conditions. In contrast to GSs and HSs, GIs were characterized by greater runoff and overall wetter conditions, with the most pronounced GI peaks between 40 and 30 cal ka BP. Whereas GSs 9, 8, 7 and 6 began with abrupt increases in evaporation and ended with gradual increases in humidity, GSs 11 and 10 showed reversed patterns. The Lake Petén Itzá paleohydrology record, along with other regional paleoclimate records, led us to conclude that shifts in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered moisture delivery to the lake on millennial timescales. During GSs and HSs, high evaporation from Petén Itzá (dry climate conditions) was associated with a more southerly position of the ITCZ, whereas wetter GIs prevailed during a more northerly ITCZ position. Although abrupt millennial-scale shifts in ITCZ and hydroclimate between GSs/HSs and GIs can be linked to instabilities in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), longer-term changes were additionally influenced by changes in atmospheric convection linked to modulations of the CLLJ in response to Δ SST between the equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]