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The article discusses the highlights of the 2014 international conference of the independent research center Istanbul Think-House (IDE) held on October 24-26, 2014, which was held with the theme "Islamism in Post-Arab Spring World." Topics discussed during the event include reconciliation between the constitutional system and the Shari'ah, politics being reduced to the state level within discussions around the end of Islamism and the difference between Islamism and Muslimism.

Selectorate theory posits that within each society, there is a political selectorate containing a winning coalition. This coalition, comprised of societal individuals, groups, and entities, selects the national leader whose aim is political survival. The original version of the theory suggested that the selectorate expands in step with the ability of the leader to provide private or public goods to its supporters in various combinations. This study expands selectorate theory to the recent revolutions across Middle East and North Africa ( MENA). With various regimes optimizing economic allocations, we believe that political survival in MENA societies is gained and maintained by concurrently fulfilling rising religious preferences. Stable MENA regimes also meet religious demands. Thus, leaders that ignore religious tides do so at their own peril. Addressing religious demands as the selectorate expands maximizes stability and reduces autocratic tendencies. We present selectorate and stakeholder assessments of six MENA societies during the Arab Spring. We find that selectorate expansion, regime stability, and regime survival depend as much on religiosity as on private-public payoffs optimization. Our results have striking implications for democratic preference promulgation and regime stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances the proposition that post-Arab Spring politics are a product of globalisation’s economic and social liberalisation. The global market and privatisation have fundamentally deconstructed centralised autocratic rule over state and society, while facilitating corruption and selective development, culminating in public outrage. The political order of the Middle East and North Africa since the Arab Spring synthesises globalisation’s dialectic duality, in which economic integration has contributed to the demise of national authoritarianism, inciting communalism and political fragmentation. This paper analyses emerging political trends and challenges based on a comparative analysis of Egypt and Tunisia. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The analysis of constitutive coordinates of some subregions from the muslim geopolitical space, divided into subsystems, will be achieved in a differentiated manner, appealing to the term "regional subsystem". This notion will be approached as a microsystemic entity with projection on its complex and interdependent character of relations among states. The content of this research will not reflect the historical and evolutionary aspects of geopolitical subsystems in Middle East; it will be focused on regional subsystems marked by socio-political and economic transformations with impact on regional security. The article will analyze the assumptions of distinguished researchers who contributed to substantiate the hypotheses on peculiarities of subsystems, based on the idea that the international subsystems are the groups of units within the international system, distinguished from the rest through their particular nature and intensity of interactions or interdependence, as well as subordinate systems. It also aims to identify the differences on various criteria within the international system and regional subsystems. This approach represents a scientific platform to launch new concepts in order to provide a solid theoretical support to research the peculiarities of regional subsystems. Defining in general the term "regional subsystem" represents an entity of a complex and interdependent microsystem of relations among states. In the context of the realities from the Middle East states, the subsystems from highlighted spaces will be analyzed on political and conceptual axis, supporting the idea that the Middle East system is not based on geographical and historical criteria, but it is an applied political concept, reflecting the strategic interests of great powers. The current theoretical framework is not well founded in that it does not explain the analytical blurring of the concepts parameters with reference to "regional subsystem". This notion is divided on geographical, economic and geopolitical criteria, which not always coincides or often overlap. This change too rapid over time. This theoretical basis represents an extended framework for finalizing of the defining of the terms "subregion", "subsystem" and "regional subsystem" in a generally valid manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An essay is presented on the revolutionary fifth historical wave of the Greater Middle East (GME) whose upheavals are changing the political regimes of the region. Topics discussed include the breakdowns in Syria, Libya and Iraq wherein the governments have been overthrown by Islamist insurgents, the mass demonstration movements of the Arab Spring in December 2010, and political developments and changes.

Turkey and Iran from the ancient times have been experiencing severe confrontation and simultaneously close interdependence in the economic field that has considerable impact on modern international relations in the Middle East and Post-Soviet space. Rivalry of both countries is strengthened by Sunni-Shia divide in Muslim world and support of different sides in Armenia - Azerbaijan conflict. Special importance in the mutual relations of neighbours has competition in the Southern Caucasus, which is important with its energy rich Azerbaijan and creation of land routes for Caspian oil and gas to Europe in order to lessen dependency of the European Union on Russian energy. Using close relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey makes all efforts to become an energy bridge between energy resources of Caspian Sea and European consumers. On the other hand, Turkey is deeply interested in Iranian gas because of the geographic proximity and huge resources of the supplier. However, despite political rivalry Turkey and Iran have mutually beneficial cooperation in trade and tourism. The article covers the development of Turkish-Iranian relations in political and economic fields since the establishment of modern states. The authors consider different historic periods of interaction in XX-XXI centuries, the competition of both states for influence in the Post-Soviet space and the Middle East, the cooperation and rivalry concerning the unresolved Kurdish question and finally the close economic interdependence of both neighbours. In order to achieve the research goals of the article Turkish and Iranian news outlets were used as the main sources of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the prospects of democracy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The topics discussed include the indicators of democracy that include economic development and social progress, the correlation between economic wealth and democracy and between social modernization and democracy in the Arab countries, and the author's conclusions and recommendations. Charts of the MENA states' economic and social indicators and political and democracy indices are presented.

In this paper, we explore the flow of information regarding strategic Middle Eastern countries in the WikiLeaks ‘diplomatic cables’ by applying data-mining techniques to construct directed networks. The results show that between 2002 and 2009, US diplomatic communication related to these countries increased although with notable variation in flow patterns. We discuss the value of a visual display of diplomatic communication patterns in understanding the decentralized nature of information gathering on regional foreign policy issues. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Gulf Cooperation Council, founded in 1981 by Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, does not focus on economic, political or military cooperation. Instead, the GCC was established as a symbolic organisation of unity against the ideational threat from anti-monarchical Iranian and Iraqi ideologies. The Arab uprisings pose a new dire ideational threat: popular protests toppling authoritarian leaders. As I analyse in three case studies, the GCC does not reflect a united stance amongst its members and has become a symbol of discord. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article argues that political instability and conflict in the Middle East and the larger Muslim world are caused by perceived marginalization and systematic injustice suffered by Muslim societies both at the domestic and international levels. In contrast to essentialist explanations of political instability in the Muslim world, the article calls for an institutionalist explanation, highlighting destabilizing effects of political marginalization especially in an increasingly globalized world. Exclusion of Muslim societies from international authority structures is a direct result of fragmentation of political authority and lack of democracy in the Muslim world. Western theories of International Relations are ill-fitted to explain the contribution of perceptions of civilizational injustice because they emerged within a statist and materialist paradigm. Muslim critics differ fundamentally from these approaches in that they see justice rather than order as the basis of a lasting world peace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article traces the impact of the Arab uprisings on US foreign assistance to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the period since 2011. Despite the Obama administration's rhetoric in support of Arab protesters and their demands for political and economic change, and despite the US President's commitment to place the full weight of the US foreign policy system behind political openings created by mass protests, US foreign assistance programs to the MENA region were largely unaffected by the dramatic political changes of 2011 and beyond. The article explains continuity in US foreign assistance as the result of several factors. These include the administration's ambivalence about the political forces unleashed by the uprisings; domestic economic and political obstacles to increases in foreign assistance; institutional and bureaucratic inertia within the agencies responsible for managing foreign assistance programming, and institutional capture of the foreign assistance bureaucracy by implementing organizations with a vested interest in sustaining ongoing activities rather than adapting programs in light of the new challenges caused by the Arab uprisings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Now that a number of Arab countries have serious plans to invest in developing nuclear power, the regionalization of the nuclear fuel cycle in the Arab region might present some important advantages, including better coordination, economies of scale, effective regional control, and the strengthening of nonproliferation norms, which may yield positive influence on the establishment of a zone free of nuclear weapons and of other weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems in the Middle East. In addition, the bridges created across the gap between developed and less developed partners could lead toward greater political integration in the region, out of which a broader regional architecture for peace could emerge. This article addresses the following key question: if the Arab countries were to take the step of inviting Iran to join a Middle East nuclear fuel cycle from the outset, including Iran's sensitive nuclear technologies, would such a step open the way for a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear crisis? If Iran kept control of its nuclear program under the umbrella of a Middle Eastern nuclear fuel cycle, then Iran's peaceful nuclear accomplishments could be put to the service and benefit of all the Arab members of the region without necessarily leading to any transfer of sensitive technologies beyond Iran. To draw a road map toward the establishment of a WMDFZ in the Middle East, this article draws on lessons from previous experiences, especially the European Atomic Energy Community Treaty, in establishing a regional cooperation framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global nuclear regime may have reached a crossroads: the states parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty have called for the establishment of a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems in the Middle East. Now that Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have reached a deal in Geneva over a phased verification of the peaceful character of Iran's nuclear program, the international community needs to address broader regional issues. Failure to move forward could imperil the global nonproliferation architecture. At the same time, little thought has been given to how this regional arrangement would work both internally (with its member states) and externally (with other organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency). This article reviews the obstacles and windows of opportunity for a comprehensive regional nuclear settlement by drawing lessons from recent history in Europe. In particular, the history of the European Atomic Energy Community suggests how a future regional organization with jurisdiction in all aspects of nuclear development should articulate its functions with existing international organizations such as the IAEA. In Europe, regional institutions have played a crucial role in creating trust among former warring nations and in harmonizing the regional and global nuclear orders. A EURATOM-like organization would be a great step for the Middle East and a great model for other regions that must deal with issues of global legal complexity (e.g., how they can harmonize regional and global orders so that they can pursue the same goals with different but compatible means). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article situates recent political turbulence in the Middle East within the long-term failure of the Arab development model that is based on economic controls and welfare concessions. After having sustained generous welfare entitlements for several decades, this development model is coming under increasing strains in the face of a growing and increasingly educated youth population, falling public spending, and an inflexible economic structure. Underpinning this failure is a weak and dependent private sector that survives largely through privileges rather than competition. This failure is most evident in the region's labor-abundant economies, where privileges are concentrated amongst connected firms but employment is concentrated amongst small, informal sector firms operating at the margins of the economy. I argue that there is a deep trade-off between employment and autonomy; sustainable employment generation is not possible without giving greater autonomy to the private sector and releasing competitive space for its operation. However, private sector development is not simply a question of technocratic policy reform. In a context where economic controls generate rents for insiders and are used to sustain elite coalitions, development has to be conceived as part of a broader political concession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An interview with foreign policy researcher Alexander Frolov and military observer Ravil Mustafin is presented. It looks at conflict and revolution in the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Arab Spring uprisings. Topics discussed include the U.S. invasion of Iraq, former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, and conflicts between Shia and Sunni Muslims.

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The article presents an annual review of national affairs in the Levant, covering the period from July 2013 to June 2014. Topics mentioned include the civil war in Syria, the setbacks suffered by the peace process brokered by the U.S. between Israel and Palestine, and other drivers of strategic change in the Levant.

US-Iranian relations have been stalled for over three decades due to missteps in timing, distrust, hostility and ideological differences between Tehran and Washington. Six American presidents have experimented with different political and economic tools in an effort to reverse Iranian support for terrorist groups, its opposition to Israel and its pursuit of a nuclear programme. President Barack Obama’s direct engagement with Tehran to end the nuclear standoff is a first step towards improved relations between two estranged countries that share a number of mutual interests. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A proliferation of scholarly works offering a variety of modernization experiences facilitated an understanding of social protests in non-western settings. Focusing on the initial stages of modern social movements in Iran and the Ottoman Empire, this study makes a comparative analysis of the tobacco protests at the turn of the twentieth century. The social protests against foreign tobacco monopolies are regarded as a key moment for the emergence of modern social movements in these countries. Scrutinizing the negotiation strategies, social value systems and political structures of these countries, it is suggested that these tobacco protests played a catalytic role in the process of capitalist incorporation and adaptation to the accompanying value systems of modernism and liberal democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]