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We have used the technique of backcalculation to estimate the number of persons in Canada who have been infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) as of July 1989. We first corrected national AIDS surveillance data in Canada for reporting delay and for underreporting. We then used standard Weibull natural history models as well as an alternative progression model in which the hazard of AIDS was dampened in keeping with observed data from large cohorts. Maximum likelihood techniques were then used to derive the infection curve most consistent with these data. Our best estimate based on this alternative progression model, an underreporting rate of 20%, and a logistic infection curve, was that approximately 29,000 persons in Canada had ever had HIV infection as of July 1989. In a sensitivity analysis utilizing less likely assumptions, the estimates ranged from 17,243 to 48,277. Restricting the same backcalculation process to females under the same assumptions, we estimated that approximately 2,900 females in Canada had ever had HIV infection as of July 1989. The best fitting step function infection curve in females appears to be continuing to rise. Given these estimates, it follows that approximately one in ten infected persons in Canada is female. However, females have only accounted for about one in seventeen AIDS cases. These data are in accord with the widespread impression that transmission of HIV to women has occurred more recently and is on the rise across Canada. The current estimate is lower than previous estimates which placed the number of infected Canadians in the 50,000 to 100,000 range. This lowering should not be taken to mean the situation is improving; rather, the early estimates were simply too high having been based on inadequate data and a rudimentary understanding of the natural history of HIV. Backcalculation is an excellent technique for modelling the incidence of HIV infection several years in the past, but it is not reliable for the most recent few years. A significant increase in HIV infection rates may have occurred in the past few years and it would be beyond the capacity of backcalculation to detect. Backcalculation and unlinked cross-sectional specimen surveys together have the potential to provide an effective means of monitoring the HIV epidemic.

The authors conducted an analysis of all 677 cases of Kaposi's sarcoma among the 3,047 cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome diagnosed in homosexual/bisexual men in Canada between 1980 and 1989. The proportion with Kaposi's sarcoma declined from 32.2% during 1980-1985 to 15.0% in 1989. The proportion with Kaposi's sarcoma was significantly higher in primary epidemic centers (Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal) and in men in the 1945-1954 birth cohort independent of year of diagnosis. These data are consistent with an environmental cofactor for Kaposi's sarcoma which is likely to be a sexually transmitted agent.

We performed an anonymous seroprevalence survey of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 infection through HIV antibody testing of blood samples from 22,512 women aged 15 to 44 years receiving prenatal care in British Columbia and the Yukon Territory from Mar. 15 to Sept. 30, 1989. Of the samples six were confirmed to be HIV positive; this yielded a crude overall seroprevalence rate of 2.7 per 10,000 pregnant women (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0 to 5.8). All of the positive samples were from women 20 to 29 years of age; four were from Vancouver, one was from Victoria, and one was from elsewhere. The highest seroprevalence rates were among women aged 15 to 29 years in Vancouver and Victoria (7.2 and 9.4 per 10,000 pregnant women respectively). Thus, 1 in 1300 pregnant women in that age group in the metropolitan areas of British Columbia was HIV positive. Application of seroprevalence rates to the total female population in British Columbia and the Yukon Territory revealed that as many as 401 women had HIV infection in 1989. Our estimates likely represent the minimum. As a subset of women of childbearing age pregnant women are likely at lowest risk of HIV infection, and so the true number of women 15 to 44 years of age with HIV infection is probably several times higher. Our study has provided a baseline assessment and will be repeated annually to analyse trends in HIV seroprevalence among pregnant women in British Columbia and the Yukon Territory.

To investigate the role of host susceptibility to HIV-1 infection, we studied subsequent seroconversion in 161 individuals, initially seronegative to HIV-1, who underwent skin testing for cutaneous anergy at an index visit within a prospective study of homosexual men. There were 23 seroconversions in these men by 45 months following the skin testing, yielding a crude rate of seroconversion of 14.3%. While results of purified protein derivative (PPD), Candida, and Trichophyton skin tests were not associated with subsequent course, anergy to dinitrochlorobenzene (DNCB) was predictive of subsequent seroconversion. Kaplan-Meier estimates for the risk of seroconversion during 45 months of follow-up in those men initially anergic and reactive to DNCB were 28.9 and 11.1%, respectively, yielding a relative risk of 2.6 (p = 0.006). The estimated relative risk was stable with adjustment by Cox regression for annual number of male sexual partners and frequency of receptive anal intercourse, and was not sensitive to various changes in the definition of seroconversion time and of eligibility criteria. These data suggest that an impaired host immune status may be associated with an increased risk of HIV-1 infection that is independent of risk of exposure to the virus, supporting earlier speculations that HIV-1 may itself be opportunistic. The notion of varying host susceptibility to infection, at least with regard to sexual transmission in homosexual men, may help to explain the frequent observation of individuals who have been repeatedly exposed to the virus and yet have remained uninfected.