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This paper presents estimates of the effects of changing climate on crop yields for grain corn and soybeans in Ontario, Canada, for 1959–2013. We were able to use a database that is more comprehensive with respect to explanatory variables than some previous efforts had available. Our model includes climate variables, prices, land quality, groundwater level, CO2 concentration, and a time trend. Our results indicate that trends in temperature and precipitation during our study period have not yet resulted in appreciable threats to crop yields in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response from the authors of an article on the role of extreme climatic change in assisted migration in forestry (forestry AM), that was published in a previous issue, is presented.

The importance of human behavior in biodiversity conservation is widely recognized, but there is little published evidence about how conservation professionals make decisions when conservation values are at stake. We take a behavioral economics approach, administering simplified decision problems ("choice experiments"), questions about choice‐relevant preferences and views ("elicitation questions"), and a psychometric scale (the New Ecological Paradigm scale) to a difficult‐to‐recruit sample (n = 100) of Canadian professionals involved in managing Rangifer tarandus caribou (Woodland Caribou). Our choice experiments reveal the importance of several decision biases (risk aversion, commission bias, and a bias towards fairness) in this influential group of conservation stakeholders. We then examine in‐sample differences between categories of professional affiliation (e.g., resource industry, environmental nongovernmental organization, or federal/provincial government), finding significant variation in responses to one elicitation question (reference points) and in psychometric scores. We discuss the implications of our findings for choice in conservation practice and for multistakeholder conservation policy. Comparing our findings to prior work on choice under uncertainty in nonconservation contexts suggests a possible replication problem in applying behavioral science insights to conservation problems, pointing to the need for a systematic research program. Results from development testing with a convenience sample of university students are presented for comparison throughout the study. This is an experimental behavioral economics study of decision making among conservation professionals. It finds evidence of several important decision biases, as well as between‐group differences in worldview and environmental attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species distribution models typically project climatically suitable habitat for trees in eastern North America to shift hundreds of kilometres this century. We simulated potential migration, accounting for various traits that affect species' ability to track climatically suitable habitat. Location: Eastern Canada, covering ~3.7 million km2. Methods: We simulated migration‐constrained range shifts through 2100 using a hybrid approach combining projections of climatically suitable habitat based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for three time periods and two species distribution modelling approaches with process‐based models parameterized using data related to dispersal ability and generation time. We developed a unique "migration kernel" that uses seed dispersal traits and observed migration velocities to obtain kernel shape and dispersal probabilities for each tree species. We then calculated lags between the migration‐constrained range limits obtained through simulations and limits of climatically suitable habitat. Results: All species demonstrated northward range shifts at the leading edge of their simulated distribution through 2100, but the magnitude and rate of that shift varied by species and time period. Climatically suitable habitat limits were found to be north of simulated distribution limits across both RCPs, with lags increasing through time. On average, simulated distribution that remained within climatically suitable habitat declined more under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, with large areas of the rear edge of the simulated distribution becoming partially or completely climatically unsuitable for many species. Main conclusions: Climatically suitable habitat limits projected for 2100 far exceeded migration‐constrained range limits for all 10 tree species, particularly for temperate species. This study underlines the limited extent to which tree species will track climate change via natural migration. Integrating observed migration velocities, seed dispersal and generation time with SDM outputs allows for more realistic evaluations of tree migration ability under climate change and may help orient forest conservation and restoration efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global economic activity in all sectors, including forest industries. Changes in demand for forest products in North America over the course of the pandemic have affected both primary processors and downstream industries reliant on residues, including wood pellet producers. Wood pellets have become an internationally traded good, mostly as a substitute for coal in electricity generation, with a significant proportion of the global supply coming from Canadian producers. To determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Canadian wood pellet industry, economic and market data were evaluated, in parallel with a survey of Canadian manufacturers on their experiences during the first three waves of the pandemic (March 2020 to September 2021). Overall, the impact of the pandemic on the Canadian wood pellet industry was relatively small, as prices, exports, and production remained stable. Survey respondents noted some negative impacts, mostly in the first months of the pandemic, but the quick recovery of lumber production helped to reduce the impact on wood pellet producers and ensured a stable feedstock supply. The pandemic did exacerbate certain pre-existing issues, such as access to transportation services and labour availability, which were still a concern for the industry at the end of the third wave in Canada. These results suggest that the Canadian wood pellet industry was resilient to disruptions caused by the pandemic and was able to manage the negative effects it faced. This is likely because of the integrated nature of the forest sector, the industry's reliance on long-term supply contracts, and feedstock flexibility, in addition to producers and end-users both being providers of essential services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial models of 1971-2000 monthly climate normals for daily maximum and minimum temperature and total precipitation are required for many applications. The World Meteorological Organization's recommended standard for the calculation of a normal value is a complete 30-yr record with a minimal amount of missing data. Only 650 stations (~16%) in Canada meet this criterion for the period 1971-2000. Thin-plate smoothing-spline analyses, as implemented by the Australian National University Splines (ANUSPLIN) package, are used to assess the utility of differing amounts of station data in estimating nationwide monthly climate normals. The data include 1) only those stations (1169) with 20 or more years of data, 2) all stations (3835) with 5 or more years of data in at least one month, and 3) as in case 2 but with data adjusted through the most statistically significant linear-regression relationship with a nearby long-term station to 20 or more years (3983 stations). Withheld-station tests indicate that the regression-adjusted normals as in dataset 3 generally yield the best results for all three climatological elements, but the unadjusted normals as in dataset 2 are competitive with the adjusted normals in spring and autumn, reflecting the known longer spatial correlation scales in these seasons. The summary mean absolute differences between the ANUSPLIN estimates and the observations at 48 spatially representative withheld stations for dataset 3 are 0.36°C, 0.66°C, and 4.7 mm, respectively, for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation. These are respectively 18%, 7%, and 18% smaller than the summary mean absolute differences for the long-term normals in dataset 1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To inform conservation planning in the face of climate change, our objectives were to map spatial patterns of tree and songbird macrorefugia; to identify climatic limiting factors by region and taxonomic group; and to quantify multi-scale topographic components of end-of-century biotic refugia. Location: United States and Canada outside the far north. Time period: End of the 21st century. Major taxa studied: Trees and songbirds. Methods: We used species distribution models for 324 trees and 268 songbirds to develop a macrorefugia index using species-specific climate velocity. Maps of multispecies refugia potential were developed for each taxonomic/functional group and quantile regression was used to identify climatic limiting factors and relationships with multi-scale topographic variables. Results: End-of-century macrorefugia for both trees and songbirds were concentrated in western mountains and, to a lesser extent, in north-eastern coastal regions. For the highest-value refugia, precipitation was generally most limiting in the north, and warm temperatures and moisture availability were limiting in the south. Tree refugia were more limited by precipitation and moisture, while songbird refugia were more limited by temperature. Upper-percentile refugia, but not median values, were well explained by topographic conditions. Songbird refugia were strongly associated with elevation, while coastal proximity and landform composition (particularly headwaters) were important for both groups. There was a general lack of concordance between patterns of current species richness and future climate refugia. Main conclusions: Macrorefugia patterns are partly explained by steep elevational or latitudinal temperature gradients and/or moderate climates, such as coastal regions. However, climatic limiting factors for these refugia suggest contrasts in the ecological processes governing warm-end range limits for different taxa in different regions. Our framework can be applied to other regions, taxa, and time periods to generate and explain biologically meaningful indices of macrorefugia for conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conserving large intact forest landscapes (IFLs) is one forest management strategy to mitigate industrial impacts on the environment. Measuring the IFL inventory at national scales has also been proposed as a means of assessing the conservation status at global scales. This paper explores the relationship between fire regimes and the size of intact forest landscapes required to meet specific conservation targets. In this paper, we demonstrate that variation in fire regimes results in changes in the minimum size of IFL required to meet habitat targets. In addition, minimum IFL size is also dependent on the nature of the habitat targets. Larger IFLs are required to improve likelihood of providing sufficient older habitat. There is significant risk of not meeting older forest age-class targets at higher annual area burned (AAB) rates, especially under climate change. In general, there is more risk of not meeting habitat targets associated with smaller IFLs, higher annual area burned (both due to spatial differences and between historical and projected burn rates under climate change), and for provision of older forests. We used habitat age-related targets as outlined in the recovery strategy for woodland caribou as an example to demonstrate the usefulness of this type of simulation experiment and risk curves to identify appropriate IFL size along a gradient of natural disturbance intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and their congruence under multiple climate scenarios and to assess the implications of habitat change for forest vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in and around protected areas. We assessed habitat projections of species habitat extent and forest composition for 35 tree species under climate change from 2000 to 2100 within National Park Service management units in the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), spanning an approximately 1,500 km latitudinal gradient. Our results show that forest composition and species ranges could change substantially under all greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and that model correspondence was stronger for projections of habitat declines than increases. Model correspondence generally increased at finer spatial scales, but varied by tree species and focal area. In the ALCC, forest composition was projected to change the most in protected area centered ecosystems (PACEs). Northeastern PACEs were projected to be suitable for tree species currently in southeastern PACEs, suggesting that intermediate suitable habitat regions could promote tree species persistence and mitigate the impacts of climate change on eastern forests. These results suggest that climate-specific management of eastern U.S. forest ecosystems will be critical but challenging, requiring integrated assessment and management of PACEs and protected areas as well as higher-resolution monitoring and modeling to inform spatially explicit management decisions within eastern U.S. parks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Patterns and uncertainties for water budget variables were examined. [•] Water imbalance was of the similar magnitude to the uncertainties in precipitation. [•] Error sources for water imbalance were found to vary with basins and seasons. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Thin plate smoothing spline models, covering Canada and the continental United States, were developed using ANUSPLIN for 30-year (1991-2020) monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. These models employed monthly weather station values from the North American dataset published by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Maximum temperature mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranged between 0.54 °C and 0.64 °C (approaching measurement error), while minimum temperature MAEs were slightly higher, varying from 0.87 °C to 1.0 °C. On average, thirty-year precipitation estimates were accurate to within approximately 10 % of total precipitation levels, ranging from 9.0 % in the summer to 12.2 % in the winter. Error rates were higher in Canada compared to estimates in the United States, consistent with a less dense station network in Canada relative to the United States. Precipitation estimates in Canada exhibited MAEs representing 14.7 % of mean total precipitation compared to 9.7 % in the United States. The datasets exhibited minimal bias overall; 0.004 °C for maximum temperature, 0.01 °C for minimum temperature, and 0.5 % for precipitation. Winter months showed a greater dry bias (0.8 % of total winter precipitation) compared to other seasons (-0.4 % of precipitation). These 30-year gridded datasets are available at ∼2 km resolution., (Crown Copyright © 2024 Published by Elsevier Inc.)

In anticipation of growing wildfire management challenges, the Canadian government is investing in WildFireSat, an Earth observation satellite mission designed to collect data in support of Canadian wildfire management. Although costs of the mission can be reasonably estimated, the benefits of such an investment are unknown. Here we forecast the possible benefits of WildFireSat via an avoided cost approach. We consider five socio-economic components: suppression costs (fixed and variable), timber losses, property, asset and infrastructure losses, evacuation costs, and smoke related health costs. Using a Monte Carlo analysis, we evaluated a range of possible changes to these components based on expert opinions. The resulting Net Present Value (NPV) estimates depend on the presumed impact of using WildFireSat decision support data products, with pessimistic and conservative assumptions generating mission costs that typically exceed potential benefits by 1.16 to 1.59 times, while more optimistic assumptions generate benefits in excess of costs by 8.72 to 10.48 times. The analysis here excludes some possibly significant market and non-market impacts expected from WildFireSat due to data limitations; accounting for these additional impacts would likely generate positive NPVs under even cautious impact assumptions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Hope et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Heating degree days (HDD) represent a concise measure of heating energy requirements used to inform decision making about the impact of climate change on heating energy demand. This data paper presents spatial datasets of heating degree days (HDD) for Canada for two thirty-year periods, 1951-1980 and 1981-2010, using daily temperature gauge observations over these time periods. Stations with fewer than nine missing days in a year and greater than nine years of data over each thirty-year period were included, resulting in 1339 and 1679 stations for the 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 periods respectively. Mean absolute error (MAE) of the spatial models ranged from 124.2 Celsius degree days (C-days) for the 1951-1980 model (2.4% of the surface mean) to 137.6 C-days for the 1981-2010 model (2.7%). This note presents maps illustrating cross validation errors at a set of representative stations. The grids are available at ∼2 km resolutions., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Crown Copyright © 2023 Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Replacement of fossil fuels with bioenergy, often in concert with carbon capture and storage, plays an important role in published low-emission pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other agencies. National and regional net-zero greenhouse gas emission commitments have caused a dramatic increase in forest biomass consumption globally, and the rise has been accompanied by debates in the scholarly literature and in society at large about the ecological and climate change impacts of forest biomass. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of media headlines about forest bioenergy published in 75 Canadian newspapers from 2010 to 2020. Using a lexicon and rules-based sentiment analysis tool, we explore negative and positive media headlines about forest biomass. Despite our finding that Canadian headlines about forest bioenergy were twice as likely to be positive as negative, media items document reversals away from forest biomass-generated domestic electricity. Our analysis found that increases in electricity costs following the introduction of forest biomass as a fuel type for Canadian electricity generation was a primary cause of these reversals. Headlines also critiqued the expanded production of wood pellets, citing forest ecological impacts and the debate about the net carbon impacts of forest biomass-generated energy. Safety issues, including stories about workplace injuries, and pellet plant fires, and economic issues, such as fiber supply and mill closures, were also featured. This research contributes a social science lens to understand perceptions over time about forest biomass for heat and power., Competing Interests: The authors declare the following conflict of interests: Member of Bioeconomy Technical Working Group, which is composed of members of the Canadian Forest Service and the Ontario Forestry Institute., (Crown Copyright © 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Tree provenance trials consist of a variety of seed sources (or provenances) planted at several test sites across the range of a species. The resulting plantations are typically measured periodically to investigate provenance performance in relation to abiotic conditions, particularly climate. These trials are expensive and time consuming to establish, but are an important resource for seed transfer systems, which aim to match planting sites with well-adapted (climatically suitable) seed sources. Provenance trial measurements may be underutilized because the data are scattered across publications, conference proceedings, and university theses. Here we document an effort to collect available provenance trial measurements and associated climate data for seven eastern North American tree species (Pinus strobus, Pinus banksiana, Picea glauca, Picea mariana, Quercus rubra, Larix laricina, Betula alleghaniensis). The resulting datasets included a total of 773 provenances and 62 test sites, with 65 historical climate variables appended to each location. We hope this data will support forest managers in making seed transfer decisions, particularly in an era of rapid climate change.