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Approaches to preventing or mitigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have varied markedly between nations. We examined the approach up to July 2020 taken by two countries which had successfully eliminated COVID-19: Taiwan and New Zealand (NZ). Both jurisdictions experienced the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020. Taiwan reported a lower COVID-19 incidence rate (19.0 cases per million) compared with NZ (235.5 per million). Extensive public health infrastructure established in Taiwan pre-COVID-19 enabled a fast coordinated response, particularly in the domains of early screening, effective methods for isolation/quarantine, and digital technologies for identifying potential cases. This timely and vigorous response allowed Taiwan to avoid the national lockdown used by NZ and the majority of high-income countries. Many of Taiwan’s pandemic control components could potentially be adopted by other high-income jurisdictions.

Background: For countries with strong border control and an epidemic that is not yet advanced, there is an opportunity to eliminate community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We show how public health policies and their effects can be modelled to estimate the likely progression of SARS-COV-2 under i) strict physical distancing policies implemented in New Zealand and Australia on the 26 th and 28 th March, 2020 respectively, and ii) from September 1st, 2020 in Victoria, Australia as this state planned its exit from a significant second wave of infections. Methods: We developed a dynamic, public health policy model using an agent-based framework that simulated key aspects of both country’s populations, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism and effect of public health policy responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate the model’s development and application through the first wave of infections in New Zealand, and first and second wave of infections experienced in Australia. Findings: Under maintained strong physical distancing, we originally estimated a median elimination date of July 12th for Australia (95% SI: June 5th to August 28th) and June 3rd for New Zealand (95% SI May 4th to June 27th). We estimated a 90% probability of elimination was achievable in Australia on August 17th (95% SI: August 8th – August 30th) and on June 14th (95% SI: June 17th – June 29th) in New Zealand. However, under our scenario of decaying adherence to physical distancing from implementation to 60 days post restrictions, we predicted a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., a second wave) was likely in Australia and possibly in New Zealand. At 100 days, the probability of elimination was reduced to 10% in Australia and 68% in New Zealand. Having demonstrated the utility of our model above, the subsequent adaptation of the model in Victoria, Australia estimated that a threshold of less than 5 new cases per day over 14 days (from a peak of ~500 in August) could be achieved on or around the 17th of October. This would enable Victoria to move to, and sustain, lower levels of restrictions to movement and trade than had been possible under its strict lockdown policy. Interpretation: The findings suggest that during Australia and NZ’s first wave of infections, elimination of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both countries through effective implementation and maintenance of public health interventions was possible. Subsequently, the structure and function of the agent-based policy model developed to analyse the effect of policies during wave 1 has been instrumental in supporting decision-making among public health authorities during Australia’s current second wave of infections. Funding Statement: MS is funded by a NHMRC Fellowship (APP1136250), JT is funded by an ARC DECRA Fellowship (DE180101411). Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

There is increased recognition that complex health challenges at the human-animal-environmental interface require a transdisciplinary, “whole-of-society” approach. This philosophy is particularly pertinent in Aotearoa-New Zealand because of the country’s relatively isolated island ecosystem, economic reliance on agriculture and its intensification, and existing indigenous worldview that emphasises holism and interconnectivity between humans, animals and the environment. In New Zealand, the One Health Aotearoa (OHA) alliance was established in order to better connect researchers and to address a growing number of infectious diseases challenges. The emphasis of OHA is to bring together and facilitate interactions between people from diverse disciplines, link to stakeholders and communities, and engage with policy-makers, government operational agencies, and funders, thus providing a holistic and integrative systems-thinking approach to address priority questions and achieve desired outcomes in One Health. The initial focus of OHA has been on infectious diseases, but there is increasing recognition of the potential benefits of the alliance to address broader complex issues. Greater involvement and overlap of the environmental sciences, human and animal health sciences, social science, and indigenous kaupapa Māori research is particularly critical for ensuring its success within the New Zealand context. Given the economic and cultural importance of New Zealand’s “clean, green” image, a One Health approach that draws strongly on the environmental sciences makes particular sense. Furthermore, as the global environment becomes increasingly stressed by anthropogenic pressures our research may hold potential solutions for similar challenges elsewhere.

Hotel-based Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) is a key public health intervention in Aotearoa New Zealand's (NZ) COVID-19 border control strategy for returning citizens and permanent residents. We aimed to investigate the experience of transiting through MIQ in NZ, to inform future refinements of this type of system. A qualitative thematic analysis method was utilised to explore experiences in depth with seventy-five individuals who had undergone MIQ in NZ between April 2020 and July 2021. Participants were interviewed by telephone or Zoom or completed an online qualitative questionnaire. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed and coded; questionnaire responses were sorted and coded. All data were subjected to thematic analysis. Three main themes described the key elements of the participants' experience of MIQ that influenced their overall experiences: 1) The MIQ process, 2) MIQ Hotels, and 3) Individual experience. The variation in participants' overall experience of MIQ was strongly influenced by their perceptions of how well the MIQ process was managed (including communication, flexibility, and compliance with disease prevention and control measures); and the quality of the hotels they were allocated to (in particular hotel staff, meals and information). This valuable insight into the experience of individuals in NZ MIQ hotels can inform better planning, management and implementation of the MIQ process for NZ and adds to the literature of countries utilising such strategies to minimise the transmission of COVID-19, whilst protecting the wellbeing of those using the system.

We aimed to conduct a preliminary analysis of any association between the 1918 influenza pandemic and its impact on birth rates in New Zealand.Official data covering the period 1910 to 1930 were sourced from multiple New Zealand Yearbooks. Estimates were made of the size of the natality impacts and estimates made of the potential causes.In 1919 there were 3,756 fewer non-Māori and 239 fewer Māori births than the pre-pandemic year of 1917, with these representing reductions in birth rates per 1,000 population of 16.6% and 19.8% respectively. The birth rate reductions in the pandemic year of 1918 (relative to 1917) were less at 8.8% and 6.7% reductions respectively. We estimated the likely major driver of the natality deficit in 1919 was embryonic and fetal loss due to influenza infection in pregnancy. Smaller roles were plausibly played by adult deaths during the pandemic and reduced sexual activity associated with the social turbulence of the peak pandemic months.The reduction in birth rates in New Zealand in 1918 and especially 1919 are consistent with international data associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic. The relatively higher natality loss for Māori for 1919 is also consistent with other epidemiological data on the unequal burden from this pandemic. Pandemic planning needs to consider ways to prevent such future burdens and associated inequalities. There is also a need to improve on the current low level of routine influenza vaccination in pregnancy so as to minimise fetal loss from seasonal influenza infection.

Background: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) has largely disappeared from high-income countries. However, in New Zealand (NZ) rates remain high in indigenous (Māori) and Pacific populations. In 2011, NZ launched an intensive and unparalleled primary Rheumatic Fever Prevention Programme (RFPP). We evaluated the impact of the school-based sore throat service component of the RFPP. Methods: The evaluation used national trends of all-age first episode ARF hospitalisation rates before (2009-11) and after (2012-16) implementation of the RFPP. A retrospective cohort study compared first-episode ARF incidence during time-not-exposed (23 093 207 person-days) and time-exposed (68 465 350 person-days) with a school-based sore throat service among children aged 5-12 years from 2012 to 2016. Results: Following implementation of the RFPP, the national ARF incidence rate declined by 28% from 4.0 per 100 000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.5-4.6] at baseline (2009-11) to 2.9 per 100 000 by 2016 (95% CI 2.4-3.4, P

The aim of this study was to examine effectiveness of oral probiotic Streptococcus salivarius K12 in preventing group A streptococcus pharyngitis in 5- to 14-year-old children at high risk of acute rheumatic fever. New Zealand has high rates of acute rheumatic fever among Māori and Pacific children. Children were already enrolled in a school-based Ministry of Health throat swabbing and treatment program. Children self-identified and reported sore throats daily and were swabbed twice weekly.A total of 1314 children were quasirandomized (based on odd or even birthdates) to receive either K12 (2.5 × 10(9) cfu per lozenge) or placebo lozenges and continued observed daily treatment (in the school week, during school time) for one school year.A total of 801 children (61.0%) reported a sore throat on one or more occasions resulting in 2927 pharyngeal swabs. Of these swabs, 1525 (52.1%) were taken from 411 children receiving K12 and 119 (7.8%) of these were positive for group A streptococcus on routine culture. In addition, 1402 (47.8%) swabs were taken from 390 children receiving placebo and 124 (8.8%) were positive. Overall there was a nonsignificant 11.2% relative reduction in positive swabs among children receiving K12. This relative reduction was greater for older children, 7-9 years of age, 15.6%, and for children 10 years and older, 30.2%.S. salivarius K12 had modest nonsignificant effects on culture-positive sore throats when given at school, during the school day. Based on our pragmatic trial, the routine use of this probiotic in the prevention of pharyngitis associated with GAS detection is not supported.

Background Campylobacter is the leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide, and contaminated chicken is a significant vehicle for spread of the disease. This study aimed to assess consumers’ knowledge of safe chicken handling practices and whether their expectations for food safety labelling of chicken are met, as a strategy to prevent campylobacteriosis. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 401 shoppers at supermarkets and butcheries in Wellington, New Zealand, and a systematic assessment of content and display features of chicken labels. Results While 89% of participants bought, prepared or cooked chicken, only 15% knew that most (60–90%) fresh chicken in New Zealand is contaminated by Campylobacter. Safety and correct preparation information on chicken labels, was rated ‘very necessary’ or ‘essential’ by the majority of respondents. Supermarket chicken labels scored poorly for the quality of their food safety information with an average of 1.7/5 (95% CI, 1.4–2.1) for content and 1.8/5 (95% CI, 1.6–2.0) for display. Conclusions Most consumers are unaware of the level of Campylobacter contamination on fresh chicken and there is a significant but unmet consumer demand for information on safe chicken preparation on labels. Labels on fresh chicken products are a potentially valuable but underused tool for campylobacteriosis prevention in New Zealand. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5322-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

SUMMARYAcute rheumatic fever (ARF) continues to produce a significant burden of disease in New Zealand (NZ) Māori and Pacific peoples. Serious limitations in national surveillance data mean that accurate case totals cannot be generated. Given the changing epidemiology of ARF in NZ and the major national rheumatic fever prevention programme (2012–2017), we updated our previous likely true case number estimates using capture–recapture analyses. Aims were to estimate the likely true incidence of ARF in NZ and comment on the changing ability to detect cases. Data were obtained from national hospitalisation and notification databases. The Chapman Estimate partially adjusted for bias. An estimated 2342 likely true new cases arose from 1997 to 2015, giving a mean annual incidence of 2·9 per 100 000 (95% CI 2·5–3·5). Compared with the pre-intervention (2009–2011) baseline incidence (3·4 per 100 000, 95% CI 2·9–4·0), the likely true 2015 incidence declined 44%. Large gaps in data completeness are slowly closing. During the period 2012–2015, 723 cases were identified; 83·8% of notifications were matched to hospitalisation data, and 87·2% of hospitalisations matched to notifications. Despite this improvement, clinicians need to remain aware of the need to notify atypical patients. A possible unintended consequence of the national ARF prevention programme is increased misdiagnosis.

AIMS: New Zealand (NZ) Māori and Pacific children have high rates of acute rheumatic fever (ARF). Around 150 new cases arise each year. As part of the national ARF prevention programme, funding is available to improve housing. To obtain maximum benefit from interventions, an effective tool is needed for targeting high-risk children. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of using hospitalisations for identifying children at risk of subsequent ARF. METHODS: Three potentially avoidable hospitalisation (PAH) groups were investigated, including diseases thought to be influenced by housing. All were developed using expert opinion or systematic reviews. These were: (i) the PAH conditions associated with the housing environment (PAHHE) group; (ii) the Crowding group; and (iii) the Ministry of Health (MoH) group. We analysed NZ public hospital discharge data (2000-2014). The prevalence of ARF among patients hospitalised in each group was calculated to estimate sensitivity and potential effectiveness. The number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one ARF case was estimated as a measure of efficiency. RESULTS: Nearly one-third of ARF patients experienced a PAH as children (before developing ARF). Sensitivity for detecting future ARF ranged from

From 2014 to 2017, the World Health Organization convened a working group to evaluate influenza disease burden and vaccine efficacy to inform estimates of maternal influenza immunization program impact. The group evaluated existing systematic reviews and relevant primary studies, and conducted four new systematic reviews. There was strong evidence that maternal influenza immunization prevented influenza illness in pregnant women and their infants, although data on severe illness prevention were lacking. The limited number of studies reporting influenza incidence in pregnant women and infants under six months had highly variable estimates and underrepresented low- and middle-income countries. The evidence that maternal influenza immunization reduces the risk of adverse birth outcomes was conflicting, and many observational studies were subject to substantial bias. The lack of scientific clarity regarding disease burden or magnitude of vaccine efficacy against severe illness poses challenges for robust estimation of the potential impact of maternal influenza immunization programs.KeywordsInfluenzaImmunizationPregnancyInfants

The eradication of some introduced pests such as rats, stoats and possums in New Zealand seems increasingly feasible with successful action to date in various cities (e.g. Wellington City) and with the government’s national 2050 predator-free goal. Here we specifically detail the potential benefits of urban rat eradication and find these cover a wide range of topics including a potentially reduced risk of infection from at least seven zoonotic diseases (e.g. leptospirosis, toxoplasmosis, trichinellosis, murine typhus; and three enteric diseases). Other potential benefits include: psychological benefits from increased native bird life in cities; reduced damage to food supplies; reduced rat damage to building insulation and to building walls and roofing; and reduced fires in buildings associated with rat damage. However, there is considerable uncertainty on the size of such impacts and so we outline a tentative research agenda as a first step towards quantification of the likely key public health be...

Aim Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is an important public health problem in low- and middle-income countries and in certain populations in high-income countries. Indigenous Australians, and New Zealand Māori and Pacific people, have incidence rates among the highest in the world. We aimed to investigate ARF cases’ housing conditions and sore throat treatment to identify opportunities for improving ARF prevention in New Zealand. Methods Recently diagnosed cases and their care givers were interviewed. Information was obtained about the cases’ demographics, housing circumstances and conditions, and sore throat treatment preceding ARF. Results We interviewed 55 cases. Most (75%) lived in rental housing and reported multiple measures of deprivation. Common exposures were household crowding (58%), bed-sharing (49%), dampness and mould (76%), cold (82%) and co-habiting with smokers (71%). Experiencing sore throat in the weeks before ARF was recalled by 62%, with 29% seeing a doctor or nurse and 13% of the total sample receiving antibiotics. Conclusions The environmental conditions reported could contribute to high group A Streptococcus transmission and susceptibility to infection, thus increasing ARF risk. Sore throat treatment has important limitations as an intervention, particularly as 38% of participants did not recall sore throat preceding the diagnosis. The results support the need to improve rental housing. Interventions promoting minimum enforceable standards in social housing and private rental sectors (such as a housing warrant of fitness) could support these changes. A rigorous investigation, such as a case control study, is needed to explore risk factors further.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and its sequela, rheumatic heart disease (RHD), have largely disappeared from high-income countries. However, in New Zealand (NZ), rates remain unacceptably high in indigenous Māori and Pacific populations. The goal of this study is to identify potentially modifiable risk factors for ARF to support effective disease prevention policies and programmes. A case-control design is used. Cases are those meeting the standard NZ case-definition for ARF, recruited within four weeks of hospitalisation for a first episode of ARF, aged less than 20 years, and residing in the North Island of NZ. This study aims to recruit at least 120 cases and 360 controls matched by age, ethnicity, gender, deprivation, district, and time period. For data collection, a comprehensive pre-tested questionnaire focussed on exposures during the four weeks prior to illness or interview will be used. Linked data include previous hospitalisations, dental records, and school characteristics. Specimen collection includes a throat swab (Group A Streptococcus), a nasal swab (Staphylococcus aureus), blood (vitamin D, ferritin, DNA for genetic testing, immune-profiling), and head hair (nicotine). A major strength of this study is its comprehensive focus covering organism, host and environmental factors. Having closely matched controls enables the examination of a wide range of specific environmental risk factors.

Mosquito vectors are extending their range via international travel and trade. Climate change makes New Zealand an increasingly suitable environment for less tropically adapted exotic mosquito vectors to become established. This shift will add a multiplier effect to existing risks of both the establishment of new species and of resident exotic species extending into new areas. We describe trends in the border interceptions of exotic mosquitoes and evaluate the role of imported goods as a pathway for these introductions. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, the two most commonly intercepted species, were only intercepted in Auckland. Used tyres and machinery were the main mode of entry for both species. The majority of Ae. albopictus were transported as larvae by sea, while most Ae. aegypti were transported as adults by air. Continuing introductions of these mosquitoes, mainly arriving via Japan or Australia, increase the risk of the local transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in New Zealand in general and in the Auckland region in particular. These findings reinforce the need for a high performing and adequately resourced national biosecurity system, particularly port surveillance and inspection. Recommended biosecurity improvements are described.

BACKGROUND Human leptospirosis mainly affects people in close occupational contact with domestic livestock and their products in New Zealand. The disease has an unquantified impact on both human health and animal production in the country. This study aimed to estimate the burden of leptospirosis in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and cost associated with loss due to absence from work, treatment of disease, animal production loss and cost of vaccination. METHODS Previously published studies of abattoir workers farmers, and veterinarians, reporting annual risks of influenza-like illness attributable to Leptospira infection, were used to estimate the expected number of cases in a year. The cost of lost animal production was based on results of observational studies in beef cattle, sheep and deer conducted in New Zealand. RESULTS Expected median annual number of severe and mild cases of human leptospirosis was 2,025 (95% probability interval [95% PI] 1,138-3,422). Median annual DALYs were 0.42 (95% PI: 0.06-2.40) per 100,000 people for the entire population, and 15.82 (95% PI: 2.09-90.80) per 100,000 people working in at-risk occupations (i.e. abattoir workers, farmers and veterinarians). Human infection resulted in a median cost of 4.42 (95% PI: 2.04-8.62) million US dollars (USD) due to absence from work and disease treatment. Median production loss cost in beef cattle, sheep and deer was USD 7.92 (95% PI: 3.75-15.48) million, while median vaccination cost in cattle, (including dairy), sheep and deer was USD 6.15 (95% PI: 5.30-7.03) million. Total annual cost of leptospirosis plus vaccination was USD 18.80 (95% PI: 13.47-27.15) million, equivalent to USD 440,000 (95% PI: 320,000-640,000) per 100,000 people. CONCLUSION This study provides an estimate of the disease burden and cost of leptospirosis in New Zealand that could support occupational health authorities and livestock industries in assessing interventions for this disease.

In a rational world, scientific effort would reflect society's needs. We tested this hypothesis using the area of infectious diseases, where the research response to emerging threats has obvious potential to save lives through informing interventions such as vaccination and prevention policies. Pathogens continue to evolve, emerge and re-emerge and infectious diseases that were once common become less so or their global distribution changes. A question remains as to whether scientific endeavours can adapt. Here, we identified papers on infectious diseases published in the four highest ranking, health-related journals over the 118 years from 1900. Focussing on outbreak-related and burden of disease-related metrics over the two time periods, 1990 to 2017 and 1900 to 2017, our analyses suggest that there is little underrepresentation of important infectious diseases among top ranked journals. Encouragingly our results suggest the scientific process is largely self-correcting.

Objectives: Influenza is responsible for a large number of deaths which can only be estimated using modelling methods. Such methods have rarely been applied to describe the major socio-demographic characteristics of this disease burden. Methods: We used quasi Poisson regression models with weekly counts of deaths and isolates of influenza A, B and respiratory syncytial virus for the period 1994 to 2008. Results: The estimated average mortality rate was 13.5 per 100,000 people which was 1.8% of all deaths in New Zealand. Influenza mortality differed markedly by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic position. Relatively vulnerable groups were males aged 65-79 years (Rate ratio (RR) = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.9, 1.9 compared with females), Maori (RR = 3.6, 95% CI: 3.6, 3.7 compared with European/Others aged 65-79 years), Pacific (RR = 2.4, 95% CI: 2.4, 2.4 compared with European/Others aged 65e79 years) and those living in the most deprived areas (RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.4) for New Zealand Deprivation (NZDep) 9&10 (the most deprived) compared with NZDep 1&2 (the least deprived). Conclusions: These results support targeting influenza vaccination and other interventions to the most vulnerable groups, in particular Maori and Pacific people and men aged 65e79 years and those living in the most deprived areas.

Background/aims Over the last decade and following international trends, cases of mosquito-borne arboviral infections, notably dengue fever, chikungunya and Zika, have increased among travellers arriving in New Zealand, but no locally acquired cases have been identified. Imported cases are characterised and examined to identify trends and features that might assist in reducing transmission risk from travellers. Methods Information on traveller arrivals, notified cases and risk factors for disease acquisition were obtained from national sources. Trends in importation rates, seasonality are described and relationships of notifications with traveller arrivals were examined with a negative binomial regression model. Results There was a significant increase in dengue notifications combined with the emergence of Zika and chikungunya. Most notifications were from arrivals in Auckland from Pacific Islands during summer and early autumn. Conclusion/implications Overseas travel from New Zealand, particularly to the Pacific Islands and Southeast Asia, involves a risk of arboviral infection. The repeated introduction of arboviruses to New Zealand also increases the risk of local transmission in a country that has vector capable and vector potential mosquitoes, as well as an increasingly suitable climate for new vectors to establish.

Background Group A Streptococcus (GAS) can trigger an immune-mediated response resulting in acute rheumatic fever (ARF). Historically, ARF has been considered a consequence of preceding GAS pharyngitis, but increasing evidence suggests that GAS skin infections may be a driver. Data on the primary care burden of GAS skin infection are limited. This paper aims to describe and compare the prevalence and distribution of GAS detection in skin swabs and ARF rates in the Auckland population. Methods This cross-sectional study used all laboratory skin swab data from people who had a skin swab taken as a result of a consultation with a health professional in the Auckland region (2010–2016). Initial primary hospitalisations for ARF were identified and all data were linked using unique patient identifiers to patient's age, prioritised ethnicity, sex, and socio-economic status. Findings 377,410 skin swabs from 239,494 individuals were included. 12·8% of swabs were GAS positive, an annual incidence of 4·8 per 1,000 person-years. Māori and Pacific Peoples under 20 years of age had markedly higher GAS detection in skin swabs (RR 4·0; 95% CI 3·9–4·2: RR 6·8; 95% CI 6·6–7·0) and significantly higher ARF rates (RR 30·3; 95% CI 19·5–46·9: RR 69·7 95% CI 45·8–106·1) compared with European/Other ethnicities. Interpretation The observation that GAS detection was markedly higher in Māori and Pacific Peoples provides a potential explanation for the marked ethnic differences in ARF. These findings support a greater focus on addressing the burden of skin infection in NZ, including as ARF prevention. Funding The first author received a training stipend from the New Zealand College of Public Health Medicine (NZCPHM) during her Masters of Public Health.

Background Very little high quality evidence exists on the causal relationship between income poverty and childhood health. We provide a comprehensive overview of the association between household income poverty and hospitalisations for children. Methods We used New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) to link income poverty data from the Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE; n = 21,759 households) and the 2013 New Zealand Census (n = 523,302 households) to publicly funded hospital records of children aged 0–17 (SoFIE: n = 39,459; Census, n = 986,901). Poverty was defined as equivalised household income below 60% of the median income, calculated both before and after housing costs, and using both self-reported and tax-recorded income. Results Correlations for the association between income poverty and hospitalisation were small (ranging from 0.02 to 0.05) and risk ratios were less than 1.35 for all but the rarest outcome—oral health hospitalisation. Weak or absent associations were apparent across age groups, waves of data collection, cumulative effects, and for estimates generated from fixed effects models and random effect models adjusted for age and ethnicity. Alternative measures of deprivation (area-level deprivation and material deprivation) showed stronger associations with hospitalisations (risk ratios ranged from 1.27–2.55) than income-based poverty measures. Conclusion Income poverty is at best weakly associated with hospitalisation in childhood. Measures of deprivation may have a stronger association. Income measures alone may not be sufficient to capture the diversity of household economic circumstances when assessing the poverty-health relationship.

Michael Baker and colleagues argue that aiming for elimination of community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus could offer important advantages over a suppression or mitigation strategy with ongoing transmission

The public health risks associated with dairy farming intensification are an emerging concern. We examine the association between dairy cattle density and cryptosporidiosis risk in children

The relationship between weather and influenza and pneumonia mortality was examined retrospectively using daily data from 1980 to 2009 in Auckland, New Zealand, a humid, subtropical location. Mortality events, defined when mortality exceeded 0·95 standard deviation above the mean, followed periods of anomalously cold air (ta.m. = -4·1, P < 0·01; tp.m. = -4·2, P < 0·01) and/or anomalously dry air (ta.m. = -4·1, P < 0·01; tp.m. = -3·8, P < 0·01) by up to 19 days. These results suggest that respiratory infection is enhanced during unusually cold conditions and during conditions with unusually low humidity, even in a subtropical location where humidity is typically high.

Background Despite the importance of adequate, un-crowded housing as a prerequisite for good health, few large cohort studies have explored the health effects of housing conditions. The Social Housing Outcomes Worth (SHOW) Study was established to assess the relationship between housing conditions and health, particularly between household crowding and infectious diseases. This paper reports on the methods and feasibility of using a large administrative housing database for epidemiological research and the characteristics of the social housing population. Methods This prospective open cohort study was established in 2003 in collaboration with Housing New Zealand Corporation which provides housing for approximately 5 % of the population. The Study measures health outcomes using linked anonymised hospitalisation and mortality records provided by the New Zealand Ministry of Health. Results It was possible to match the majority (96 %) of applicant and tenant household members with their National Health Index (NHI) number allowing linkage to anonymised coded data on their hospitalisations and mortality. By December 2011, the study population consisted of 11,196 applicants and 196,612 tenants. Half were less than 21 years of age. About two-thirds identified as Māori or Pacific ethnicity. Household incomes were low. Of tenant households, 44 % containing one or more smokers compared with 33 % for New Zealand as a whole. Exposure to household crowding, as measured by a deficit of one or more bedrooms, was common for applicants (52 %) and tenants (38 %) compared with New Zealanders as whole (10 %). Conclusions This project has shown that an administrative housing database can be used to form a large cohort population and successfully link cohort members to their health records in a way that meets confidentiality and ethical requirements. This study also confirms that social housing tenants are a highly deprived population with relatively low incomes and high levels of exposure to household crowding and environmental tobacco smoke.

Background We aimed to estimate the protection afforded by inactivated influenza vaccine, in both community and hospital settings, in a well characterised urban population in Auckland during 2014. Methods We used two different comparison groups, all patients who tested negative for influenza and only those patients who tested negative for influenza and had a non-influenza respiratory virus detected, to calculate the vaccine effectiveness in a test negative study design. Estimates were made separately for general practice outpatient consultations and hospitalised patients, stratified by age group and by influenza type and subtype. Vaccine status was confirmed by electronic record for general practice patients and all respiratory viruses were detected by real time polymerase chain reaction. Results 1039 hospitalised and 1154 general practice outpatient consultations met all the study inclusion criteria and had a respiratory sample tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses. Compared to general practice patients, hospitalised patients were more likely to be very young or very old, to be Māori or Pacific Islander, to have a low income and to suffer from chronic disease. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) adjusted for age and other participant characteristics using all influenza negative controls was 42% (95% CI: 16 to 60%) for hospitalised and 56% (95% CI: 35 to 70%) for general practice patients. The vaccine appeared to be most effective against the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strain with an adjusted VE of 62% (95% CI:38 to 77%) for hospitalised and 59% (95% CI:36 to 74%) for general practice patients, using influenza virus negative controls. Similar results found when patients testing positive for a non-influenza respiratory virus were used as the control group. Conclusion This study contributes to validation of the test negative design and confirms that inactivated influenza vaccines continue to provide modest but significant protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Leptospirosis in New Zealand has been strongly associated with animal-contact occupations and with serovars Hardjo and Pomona. However, recent data suggest changes in these patterns, hence, serovar-specific epidemiology of leptospirosis from 1999 to 2017 was investigated. The 19-year average annual incidence is 2.01/100,000. Early (1999–2007) and late (2008–2017) study period comparisons showed a significant increase in notifications with serovar Ballum (IRR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.22–2.09) in all cases and serovar Tarassovi (IRR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.13–2.78) in Europeans and a decrease in notifications with serovars Hardjo and Pomona in all cases. Incidences of Ballum peaked in winter, Hardjo peaked in spring and Tarassovi peaked in summer. Incidence was highest in Māori (2.24/100,000) with dominant serovars being Hardjo and Pomona. Stratification by occupation showed meat workers had the highest incidence of Hardjo (57.29/100,000) and Pomona (45.32/100,000), farmers had the highest incidence of Ballum (11.09/100,000) and dairy farmers had the highest incidence of Tarassovi (12.59/100,000). Spatial analysis showed predominance of Hardjo and Pomona in Hawke’s Bay, Ballum in West Coast and Northland and Tarassovi in Waikato, Taranaki and Northland. This study highlights the serovar-specific heterogeneity of human leptospirosis in New Zealand that should be considered when developing control and prevention strategies.

Many of the arguments made by Thornley and colleagues against taking an elimination approach to covid-19 are misleading and incorrect1—in particular, their assertion that the infection fatality risk (IFR) for covid-19 is “similar to that for seasonal flu.” Research conducted in New Zealand and internationally suggests that the IFR for covid-19 is typically …

Introduction Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease responsible for over 1 million severe cases and 60,000 deaths annually. The wide range of animal hosts and complex environmental drivers of transmission make targeted interventions challenging, particularly when restricted to regression-based analyses which have limited ability to deal with complexity. In Fiji, important environmental and socio-demographic factors include living in rural areas, poverty, and livestock exposure. This study aims to examine drivers of transmission under different scenarios of environmental and livestock exposures. Methods Spatial Bayesian networks (SBN) were used to analyse the influence of livestock and poverty on the risk of leptospirosis infection in urban compared to rural areas. The SBN models used a combination of spatially-explicit field data from previous work and publically available census information. Predictive risk maps were produced for overall risk, and for scenarios related to poverty, livestock, and urban/rural setting. Results While high, rather than low, commercial dairy farm density similarly increased the risk of infection in both urban (12% to 18%) and rural areas (70% to 79%), the presence of pigs in a village had different impact in rural (43% to 84%) compared with urban areas (4% to 24%). Areas with high poverty rates were predicted to have 26.6% and 18.0% higher probability of above average seroprevalence in rural and urban areas, respectively. In urban areas, this represents >300% difference between areas of low and high poverty, compared to 43% difference in rural areas. Conclusions Our study demonstrates the use of SBN to provide valuable insights into the drivers of leptospirosis transmission under complex scenarios. By estimating the risk of leptospirosis infection under different scenarios, such as urban versus rural areas, these subgroups or areas can be targeted with more precise interventions that focus on the most relevant key drivers of infection., Author summary Leptospirosis is a zoonotic disease responsible for over 60,000 deaths annually and is transmitted from mammal hosts to humans through contact with infected urine. The range of possible hosts and complex environmental factors related to transmission make targeted interventions challenging. We used spatial Bayesian Networks applied to a case study in Fiji to show that livestock exposure and poverty affect the probability of infection differently in rural compared to urban areas. This work illustrates the complexity of leptospirosis transmission drivers in Fiji, and shows how they are affected by the interactions between livestock exposure and other environmental and socio-demographic factors. In doing so, we support previous findings linking the risk of leptospirosis to poverty.

(1) Background: Global agricultural production is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades. Agricultural production provides food and materials crucial to human survival and well-being and is a critical source of livelihood, providing employment opportunities and economic benefits. However, industrialized or intensified agricultural systems, in particular, can have adverse effects on public health, place pressure on natural resources, and reduce environmental sustainability. This review attempts to identify and characterize key environmental health assessment methods for examining a broad array of potential impacts; (2) Methods: Electronic databases Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and GreenLINE were searched for published literature that presented methods for conducting an environmental health assessment of an agricultural system; (3) Results: Fifty-three sources were included in the review. Eight methods were selected to illustrate the wide range of approaches currently available: health risk assessment methods, health impact assessment, environmental impact assessment methods, environmental burden of disease, lifecycle methods, integrated assessment modeling, trade-off analysis, and economic assessment; (4) Conclusions: This review can provide guidance for selecting an existing method or for designing a new method for assessing the environmental health impacts of an agricultural system.

Background Group A streptococcus (GAS) causes an exceptionally diverse range of diseases, raising questions about the optimal product characteristics of a commercially viable vaccine. The objectives of this study were to (1) estimate the current health and economic burdens caused by 24 diseases attributable to GAS each year in Australia and (2) use these estimates to explore the value of a GAS vaccine for different clinical indications, age schedules, and population groups. Methods For objective 1, we estimated the population heath and economic burdens by synthesising data from administrative databases, nationally representative surveys, literature reviews, public reimbursement schedules, and expert opinion. For objective 2, we modelled the prospective lifetime burden of GAS for all infants from birth, for children from 5 years of age, and for adults from 65 years of age. A vaccine was assumed to reduce each GAS disease by 70% for a period of 10 years, and the difference in outcomes between vaccinated and non-vaccinated cohorts were used to calculate the cost-effective value of vaccination. Results The annual health and economic burdens of GAS diseases totalled 23,528 disability-adjusted life years and AU$185.1 million in healthcare costs respectively; approximately half of each measure was due to cellulitis, followed by other skin infections and throat infections. Reducing the incidence of throat infections, skin infections, and cellulitis in non-Indigenous cohorts resulted in 30%, 33%, and 28% of the total vaccine value for an infant schedule (cost-effective vaccine price AU$260 per course); 47%, 26%, and 22% of the value for a child schedule (AU$289); and 2%, 15% and 74% for an adult schedule (AU$489). Conclusions A vaccine that prevents GAS cellulitis and other skin infections, in addition to throat infections, would maximise its value and commercial viability, with a cost-effective price in line with other recently-licensed and funded vaccines in Australia.

Background Understanding the attack rate of influenza infection and the proportion who become ill by risk group is key to implementing prevention measures. While population-based studies of antihemagglutinin antibody responses have been described previously, studies examining both antihemagglutinin and antineuraminidase antibodies are lacking. Methods In 2015, we conducted a seroepidemiologic cohort study of individuals randomly selected from a population in New Zealand. We tested paired sera for hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) or neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers for seroconversion. We followed participants weekly and performed influenza polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for those reporting influenza-like illness (ILI). Results Influenza infection (either HAI or NAI seroconversion) was found in 321 (35% [95% confidence interval, 32%-38%]) of 911 unvaccinated participants, of whom 100 (31%) seroconverted to NAI alone. Young children and Pacific peoples experienced the highest influenza infection attack rates, but overall only a quarter of all infected reported influenza PCR-confirmed ILI, and one-quarter of these sought medical attention. Seroconversion to NAI alone was higher among children aged

Little is known about inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing very severe disease, including influenza-associated intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.The Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (SHIVERS) project enrolled adults (aged ≥ 18 years) with acute respiratory illness (ARI) in general ward (GW) hospital settings (n = 3034) and ICUs (n = 101) during 2012-2015. IVE was assessed using a test-negative design comparing the odds of influenza vaccination among influenza positives vs. negatives (confirmed by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction). All models were adjusted for season, weeks from season peak, and a vaccination propensity score.Influenza virus infection was confirmed in 28% of GW hospital and 41% of ICU patients; influenza vaccination was documented for 56% and 41%, respectively. Across seasons, IVE was 37% (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 23-48%) among GW patients and 82% (95% CI = 45-94%) among ICU patients. IVE point estimates were 70% against ICU influenza and consistently higher than IVE against GW influenza when stratified by season, by virus (sub)types, and for adults with or without chronic medical conditions and for both adults aged65 and ≥65 years old. Among hospitalized influenza positives, influenza vaccination was associated with a 59% reduction in the odds of ICU admission (aOR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.18-0.96) and with shorter ICU lengths of stay (LOS), but not with radiograph-confirmed pneumonia or GW hospital LOS.Inactivated influenza vaccines prevented influenza-associated ICU admissions, may have higher effectiveness in ICU than GW hospital settings, and appeared to reduce the risk of severe disease among those who are infected despite vaccination.

Spatio-temporal disease patterns can provide clues to etiological pathways, but can be complex to model. Using a flexible Bayesian hierarchical framework, we identify previously undetected space-time clusters and environmental and socio-demographic risk factors for reported giardiasis and cryptosporidiosis at the New Zealand small area level. For giardiasis, there was no seasonal pattern in outbreak probability and an inverse association with density of dairy cattle ( β ^ 1 = −0.09, Incidence Risk Ratio (IRR) 0.90 (95% CI 0.84, 0.97) per 1 log increase in cattle/km2). In dairy farming areas, cryptosporidiosis outbreaks were observed in spring. Reported cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with dairy cattle density: β ^ 1 = 0.12, IRR 1.13 (95% CI 1.05, 1.21) per 1 log increase in cattle/km2 and inversely associated with weekly average temperature: β ^ 1 = −0.07, IRR 0.92 (95% CI 0.87, 0.98) per 4 °C increase. This framework can be generalized to determine the potential drivers of sporadic cases and latent outbreaks of infectious diseases of public health importance.

Objective: To perform a comprehensive economic evaluation of border closure for an island nation in the face of severe pandemic scenarios. Methods: The costing tool developed by the New Zealand (NZ) Treasury (CBAx) was used for the analyses. Pandemic scenarios were as per previous work;1 epidemiological data were from past New Zealand influenza pandemics. Results: The net present value of successful border closure was NZ$7.86 billion for Scenario A (half the mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic) and $144 billion for preventing a more severe pandemic (10 times the mortality of scenario A). Cost–utility analyses found border closure was relatively cost‐effective, at $14,400 per QALY gained in Scenario A, and cost‐saving for Scenario B (taking the societal perspective). Conclusions: This work quantifies the economic benefits and costs from border closure for New Zealand under specific assumptions in a generic but severe pandemic threat (e.g. influenza, synthetic bioweapon). Preparing for such a pandemic response seems wise for an island nation, although successful border closure may only be feasible if planned well ahead. Implications for public health: Policy makers responsible for generic pandemic planning should explore how border closure could be implemented, including practical and legal frameworks.

Background Influenza has a substantially but poorly measured impact on population health. Estimating its true contribution to hospitalisations remains a challenge. Methods We used simple and comprehensive negative binomial regression models with weekly counts of hospitalisations and isolates of influenza A, B and respiratory syncytial virus for the period 1994– 2008. Results The estimated annual national average number of hospitalisations attributable to influenza was 822.1(95% CI: 815.3, 828.9) for pneumonia and influenza, 1861.3 (95% CI: 1842.9, 1879.7) for respiratory illness, 12.1 (95% CI: 2.6, 21.6) for circulatory illness, 2260.0 (95% CI: 2212.2, 2307.8) for all medical illness and 2419.9 (95% CI: 2356.4, 2483.4) for all causes. The contribution of influenza to total hospitalisations was about nine times larger than indicated by routine discharge data. New Zealanders 80 years of age and older had the highest annual excess rates of influenza-related hospitalisations (327.8 per 100,000); followed by infants under 1 year (244.5 per 100,000). Estimated influenza hospitalisation rates were also markedly higher in Pacific (83.3 per 100,000) and Māori (80.0 per 100,000) compared with European/Others (58.1 per 100,000). Respiratory illness was the major contributor to all cause hospitalisations attributed to influenza accounting for 77%. Influenza hospitalisations included only a negligible contribution from circulatory illness. Conclusion These findings support efforts to reduce the impact of influenza, particularly for the most vulnerable population groups highlighted here. Analysis of the cost-effectiveness of such interventions needs to consider these higher modelled estimates of disease impact.

Aim Rheumatic fever (RF) prevention, control and surveillance are increasingly important priorities in New Zealand (NZ) and Australia. We compared RF surveillance across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries to assist in benchmarking and identifying useful approaches. Methods A structured literature review was completed using Medline and PubMed databases, investigating RF incidence rates. Surveillance methods were noted. Health department websites were searched to assess whether addressing RF was a Government priority. Results Of 32 OECD member countries, nine reported RF incidence rates after 1999. Highest rates were seen in indigenous Australians, and NZ Māori and Pacific peoples. NZ and Australian surveillance systems are highly developed, with notification and register data compiled regularly. Only these two Governments appeared to prioritise RF surveillance and control. Other countries relied mainly on hospitalisation data. There is a lack of standardisation across incidence rate calculations. Israel and Italy may have relatively high RF rates among developed countries. Conclusions RF lingers in specific populations in OECD member countries. At a minimum, RF registers are needed in higher incidence countries. Countries with low RF incidences should periodically review surveillance information to ensure rates are not increasing.

The Maryland State Highway Administration (SHA) monitoring program monitored the impact of vehicular emissions on the concentrations of the fine particles smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5). PM2.5 concentrations were monitored in close proximity to a highway in order to determine whether traffic conditions on the roadway impact concentrations at this location. The monitoring program attempted to connect monitored concentrations with the roadway traffic exhaust or with the other sources of PM2.5. PM2.5 concentrations were collected near the Capital Beltway (I-495/I-95) in Largo, Maryland. The monitoring program was launched on May 13, 2009 and continued through the end of 2012. Two co-located monitors, one for continuous PM2.5 measurements and the other for speciation measurements, were used in this program. Meteorological and traffic information was also continuously collected at or near the monitoring site. Additionally, data from the two other monitoring locations, one at the Howard University-Beltsville, MD and one at McMillan Reservoir, DC, was used for comparison with the data collected at the SHA monitoring location. The samples collected by the speciation monitor were analyzed at the RTI and DRI Laboratories to determine the composition and the sources of the collected PM2.5 samples. Based on the apportionment analysis, the contribution of roadway sources is about 12 to 17 percent of PM2.5 at the near-road site.PM2.5 monitoring at 150 m (approximately 500 feet) from a major highway in Maryland near Washington, DC, demonstrated that roadway traffic contributes to the total PM2.5 concentration near the roadway, but the contribution at such distance is small, in the order of 12-17% of the total.

The 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic highlighted the need for improved scientific knowledge to support better pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza control. The Southern Hemisphere Influenza and Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (SHIVERS) project, a 5-year (2012–2016) multiagency and multidisciplinary collaboration, aimed to measure disease burden, epidemiology, aetiology, risk factors, immunology, effectiveness of vaccination and other prevention strategies for influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases of public health importance. Two active, prospective, population-based surveillance systems were established for monitoring influenza and other respiratory pathogens among those hospitalized patients with acute respiratory illness and those enrolled patients seeking consultations at sentinel general practices. In 2015, a sero-epidemiological study will use a sample of patients from the same practices. These data will provide a full picture of the disease burden and risk factors from asymptomatic infections to severe hospitalized disease and deaths and related economic burden. The results during the first 2 years (2012–2013) provided scientific evidence to (a) support a change to NZ's vaccination policy for young children due to high influenza hospitalizations in these children; (b) contribute to the revision of the World Health Organization's case definition for severe acute respiratory illness for global influenza surveillance; and (c) contribute in part to vaccine strain selection using vaccine effectiveness assessment in the prevention of influenza-related consultations and hospitalizations. In summary, SHIVERS provides valuable international platforms for supporting seasonal influenza control and pandemic preparedness, and responding to other emerging/endemic respiratory-related infections.

Highlights • A symptom screening tool was used at the border to predict which travellers were more likely to have respiratory virus infections. • The most frequently identified viruses were rhinoviruses, enteroviruses and influenza B. • The positive predictive value (PPV) of any symptom for any respiratory virus infection was low at 26%. • There was a substantial overlap in the symptom profiles between the respiratory viruses found in the study participants. • It is unlikely that clinical symptoms alone can be used to predict infections with specific respiratory viruses., Background There is very little known about the prevalence and distribution of respiratory viruses, other than influenza, in international air travellers and whether symptom screening would aid in the prediction of which travellers are more likely to be infected with specific respiratory viruses. Objectives In this study, we investigate whether, the use of a respiratory symptom screening tool at the border would aid in predicting which travellers are more likely to be infected with specific respiratory viruses. Study design Data were collected from travellers arriving at Christchurch International Airport, New Zealand, during the winter 2008, via a symptom questionnaire, temperature testing, and respiratory sampling. Results Respiratory viruses were detected in 342 (26.0%) of 1313 samples obtained from 2714 symptomatic travellers. The most frequently identified viruses were rhinoviruses (128), enteroviruses (77) and influenza B (48). The most frequently reported symptoms were stuffy or runny nose (60%), cough (47%), sore throat (27%) and sneezing (24%). Influenza B infections were associated with the highest number of symptoms (mean of 3.4) followed by rhinoviruses (mean of 2.2) and enteroviruses (mean of 1.9). The positive predictive value (PPV) of any symptom for any respiratory virus infection was low at 26%. Conclusions The high prevalence of respiratory virus infections caused by viruses other than influenza in this study, many with overlapping symptotology to influenza, has important implications for any screening strategies for the prediction of influenza in airline travellers.

To analyse the incidence, demographics and molecular epidemiology of invasive group A streptococcal (GAS) disease in New Zealand between 2002 and 2012.Using laboratory-based surveillance data, invasive GAS isolates were identified from the Institute of Environmental Science and Research, New Zealand. Hospitalization and mortality data were obtained from the New Zealand Ministry of Health. Molecular typing was performed by sequence analysis of the emm gene.The incidence of invasive GAS infections increased from 3.9 per 100,000 population in 2002 to 7.9 per 100,000 population (P 0.001) in 2012. The incidence was highest in the over 75-year age group, and in Pacific peoples. There was temporal variation in emm types associated with invasive GAS disease, with emm1 being the overall predominant emm type. The diversity of emm types varied significantly according to ethnicity. Overall, 59% of GAS isolates were theoretically covered by an experimental M-protein vaccine.Our study provides valuable data on the epidemiology of invasive GAS disease in New Zealand, and represents one of the few studies to assess such longitudinal data across an entire nation. The increase in invasive GAS disease is concerning, and reasons for this should be explored further.

To systematically identify physical memorials to the 1918 influenza pandemic in an entire country.Internet searches, contact with local historians and field expeditions were conducted.Despite the high impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New Zealand (~8,600 deaths), only seven publicly accessible local memorials which referred this pandemic were identified. Another 11 memorials were identified, but these were in private settings or did not refer to the pandemic. There is no national memorial and a marked contrast exists with the number of war memorials (260 times more per 1,000 deaths for one war), and for 20 smaller mass fatality events (one of which has eight memorials alone). The current educational value of these pandemic memorials is likely to be minimal since only three are in cities, there is a lack of supporting signage and there are no links to online resources.Despite the major impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New Zealand, publicly accessible memorials were found to be rare. This was in marked contrast to other disaster-related memorials and particularly to war memorials. There appears to be major scope for enhancing public education around the persisting threat of future pandemics via improved use of physical memorials and linkages to online resources.

In New Zealand, as in many other countries, housing in the private-rental sector is in worse condition than in the owner-occupier housing sector. New Zealand residential buildings have no inspection regime after original construction signoff. Laws and regulations mandating standards for existing residential housing are outdated and spread over a range of instruments. Policies to improve standards in existing housing have been notoriously difficult to implement. In this methods paper, we describe the development and implementation of a rental Warrant of Fitness (WoF) intended to address these problems. Dwellings must pass each of 29 criteria for habitability, insulation, heating, ventilation, safety, amenities, and basic structural soundness to reach the WoF minimum standard. The WoF's development was based on two decades of research on the impact of housing quality on health and wellbeing, and strongly influenced by the UK Housing Health and Safety Rating System and US federal government housing standards. Criteria were field-tested across a range of dwelling types and sizes, cities, and climate zones. The implementation stage of our WoF research consists of a non-random controlled quasi-experimental study in which we work with two city-level local government councils to implement the rental WoF, recruiting adjoining council areas as controls, and measuring changes in health, economic, and social outcomes.

New Zealand (NZ) Māori and Pacific children have high rates of acute rheumatic fever (ARF). Around 150 new cases arise each year. As part of the national ARF prevention programme, funding is available to improve housing. To obtain maximum benefit from interventions, an effective tool is needed for targeting high-risk children. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of using hospitalisations for identifying children at risk of subsequent ARF.Three potentially avoidable hospitalisation (PAH) groups were investigated, including diseases thought to be influenced by housing. All were developed using expert opinion or systematic reviews. These were: (i) the PAH conditions associated with the housing environment (PAHHE) group; (ii) the Crowding group; and (iii) the Ministry of Health (MoH) group. We analysed NZ public hospital discharge data (2000-2014). The prevalence of ARF among patients hospitalised in each group was calculated to estimate sensitivity and potential effectiveness. The number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one ARF case was estimated as a measure of efficiency.Nearly one-third of ARF patients experienced a PAH as children (before developing ARF). Sensitivity for detecting future ARF ranged from5% (MoH group) to 27% (PAHHE group). NNS ranged from 502.4 (PAHHE) to 707.5 (MoH).Because ARF is relatively rare, observing hospitalisations is not particularly efficient for targeting prevention activities for this condition alone. However, housing interventions are likely to improve multiple outcomes; thus, the hospital setting is still useful for identifying at-risk children who could benefit from such programmes.

Background Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. Objective To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. Methods An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). Results For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). Conclusions This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.