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METEOR 66/2b Corinto - Caldera Wochenberichte Dritter Wochenbericht, 16.10 –23.10. 2005

METEOR 66/2b Corinto - Caldera Wochenberichte Erster Wochenbericht, 2.10 – 9.10. 2005

Submarine high‐intensity methane seeps have been surveyed in the Sorokin Trough and Paleo Dnepr Area in the Black Sea from May to June, 2003 to estimate the sea‐air methane flux. The Sorokin Trough mud volcano area in around 2080 m water depth shows no direct effects on the methane concentration in the surface water and the atmosphere (average methane saturation ratios (SR) of 143%). The average sea‐air methane flux can be determined as 0.2–0.57 nmol m−2 s−1, using two different sea‐air gas exchange models; mean wind speed were extraordinary low throughout the cruise (1.16 m s−1). The investigations in the Paleo Dnepr Area (60 to 800 m water depth) reflects a more diverse pattern. Spots of high methane concentrations in the surface water have been recorded above a seep location in around 90 m water depth (SR up to 294%). The air‐sea methane flux above this seep site (0.96–2.32 nmol m−2 s−1) is 3 times higher than calculated for the surrounding shelf (0.32–0.77 nmol m−2 s−1) and 5 times higher than assessed for open Black Sea waters (water depth > 200 m, 0.19–0.47 nmol m−2 s−1).

In samples of pure natural gas hydrates from Hydrate Ridge, Cascadia Margin, virtually no helium and neon components are present providing evidence that the light noble gases are not incorporated into the structure of natural methane hydrates. In contrast, the hydrates contain significant amounts of argon, krypton and xenon. These gases show a distinct fractionation pattern, with the heavier ones preferentially incorporated into the gas hydrate structure. The hydrate methane is devoid of 14C indicating that there is no contribution of a recent (14C-active) organic carbon reservoir to the hydrate carbon pool. On the basis of the δ13C and δ2H signature, it appears that microbial CO2-reduction is the dominant CH4 production pathway.

Methane in surface waters and marine air off Oregon (44°24′N–44°54′N, 124°36′W–125°24′W) was continuously surveyed in July 1999. During a high-resolution survey after a period of steady winds from the north, CH4 concentrations were high in the northeastern region, near the shelf edge. The highest CH4 concentrations were 2.5 times higher than equilibrium with the atmospheric partial pressure. In contrast, concentrations were near equilibrium in the western part of the survey area, the Hydrate Ridge. The increase in CH4 from southwest to northeast correlates with a drop in sea surface temperature (SST), from 16.5°C to

GEOMAR-Report No 83

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015)., Earth System Science Data, 7 (2), ISSN:1866-3516, ISSN:1866-3508

The Baltic Sea has a salinity gradient decreasing from fully marine (> 25) in the west to below 7 in the central Baltic Proper. Habitat-forming and ecologically dominant mytilid mussels exhibit decreasing growth when salinity, Biogeosciences, 18 (8), ISSN:1726-4170

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO₂ sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO₂ sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr⁻¹, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr⁻¹ indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr⁻¹, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr⁻¹, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr⁻¹, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr⁻¹, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO₂ concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).