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A growing interest in extreme precipitation has spread through the scientific community due to the effects of global climate change on the hydrological cycle, and their threat to natural systems' higher than average climatic values. Understanding the variability of precipitation indices and their association to atmospheric processes could help to project the frequency and severity of extremes. This paper evaluates the trend of three precipitation extremes: the number of consecutive dry/wet days (CDD/CWD) and the quotient of the precipitation in days where daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of the reference period and the total amount of precipitation (or contribution of very wet days, R95pTOT). The aim of this study is twofold. First, extreme indicators are compared against accumulated precipitation (RR) over Europe in terms of trends using non-parametric approaches. Second, we analyse the geographically opposite trends found over different parts of Europe by considering their relationships with large-scale processes, using different teleconnection patterns. The study is accomplished for the four seasons using the gridded E-OBS data set developed within the EU ENSEMBLES project. Different patterns of variability were found for CWD and CDD in winter and summer, with north–south and east–west configurations, respectively. We consider physical factors in order to understand the extremes' variability by linking large-scale processes and precipitation extremes. Opposite associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter and summer, and the relationships with the Scandinavian and East Atlantic patterns as well as El Niño/Southern Oscillation events in spring and autumn gave insight into the trend differences. Significant relationships were found between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and R95pTOT during the whole year. The largest extreme anomalies were analysed by composite maps using atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature. The association of extreme precipitation indices and large-scale variables found in this work could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques. We acknowledge the free availability of the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http: //ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://eca.knmi.nl), the CPC and the NCEP NOAA for the teleconnection indices. We also thank the software developers of CDO (Climate Data Operators), CDAT (Climate Data Analysis Tool) and GrADS (Grid Analysis Display System). This work is supported by projects EXTREMBLES (CGL2010- 21869), CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02), GCL2008-04610 and CGL2011-23209 from the Spanish R&D&I programme, SA222A11-2 regional project JCyL, and CLIM-RUN from the 7th European Framework Programme (FP7). A. Casanueva and N. González-Reviriego would like to thank the Spanish Government for the funding provided within the FPI programme (BES-2011-047612 and BES-2009-015078). Finally, we are also thankful to the two anonymous referees who helped to improve this paper.

Ponencia presentada en: IX Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Almería entre el 28 y el 30 de octubre de 2014. [ES]Este trabajo tiene como objetivo el análisis de las variaciones temporales de tipos de tiempo que causan eventos extremos en España. Se seleccionan tres tipos de tiempo que causan extremos térmicos y de precipitación a partir de la clasificación que propuso Inocencio Font Tullot en el año 1983. Para caracterizar la evolución de los tipos de tiempo se utiliza la metodología de regresión parcial por mínimos cuadrados parciales (PLS). Las series temporales de tipos de tiempo pueden aplicarse para el estudio de las relaciones entre la variabilidad de la circulación atmosférica y los cambios de los eventos extremos. [EN]The aim of this work is to analyse the time series of weather types that are related to extreme events in Spain. Therefore, from the weather types classification proposed by I. Font we have selected three that are associated with rainfall and temperature extremes. To derive the time evolution of the weather types we applied the Partial Least Square Regression approach. The weather time series are useful to obtain relationships between atmospheric circulation and extreme event changes. Agradecemos a los proveedores de datos E-OBS del EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) y del proyecto ECA&D (http://eca.knmi.nl) y al "Climate Prediction Center" de Estados Unidos por proporcionar los datos de Reanálisis. Agradecemos a los desarrolladores de los programas informáticos CDO (https://code.zmaw. de/projects/cdo) y GrADS (http://www.iges.org/grads/). Agradecemos la subvención del proyecto CGL2011-23209 del Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad.

Observational series of winter precipitation in the eastern part of the Cantabrian coast in the northern Iberian Peninsula are studied. This rather small area shows a clearly different interannual variability to the rest of the Peninsula. Series of winter precipitation for the whole area are defined using principal component (PC) analysis and they reflect the variability that can be attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation around the area. This variability is physically explained on the basis of the structure of baroclinic activity and vertically integrated moisture transports over the area derived from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project. According to them, the leading PC of winter precipitation represents the overall precipitation over the area. Wet phases of this PC are associated to an increase of baroclinic activity leaving the eastern part of the Atlantic storm track and entering the Mediterranean basin. Conversely, dry phases show a strong reduction of baroclinic activity over the region. The second PC is linked to meridional water vapour transports over the area, which are affected by the topography of the region. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society

We perform an exhaustive comparison among central galaxies from SDSS catalogs in different local environments at 0.01, 17 pages, 11 figures after last Referee's report. Accepted for publication in ApJ

We present high-resolution N-body/hydrodynamics simulations of dwarf galaxies formed in isolated CDM halos with the same virial mass, Mv~2.5x10^10 Msun at z=0, in order to (1) study the mass assembly histories (MAHs) of the halo, stars, and gas components, and (2) explore the effects of the halo MAHs on the stellar/baryonic assembly of the simulated dwarfs and on their z~0 properties. Overall, the simulated dwarfs are roughly consistent with observations. Our main results are: a) The stellar-to-halo mass ratio is ~0.01 and remains roughly constant since z~1 (the stellar MAHs follow closely the halo MAHs), with a smaller value at higher z's for those halos that assemble their mass later. b) The evolution of the galaxy gas fraction, fg, is episodic and higher, most of the time, than the stellar fraction. When fg decreases (increases), the gas fraction in the halo typically increases (decreases), showing that the SN driven outflows play an important role in regulating the gas fractions -and hence the SFR- of the dwarfs. However, in most cases, an important fraction of the gas escapes the virial radius, Rv; at z=4 the total baryon fraction inside Rv is 1.5-2 times smaller than the universal one, while at z=0 is 2-6 times smaller, with the earlier assembled halos ejecting more gas. c) The SF histories are episodic with changes in the SFRs of factors 2-10 on average. d) Although the dwarfs formed in late assembled halos show more extended SF histories, their z~0 SFRs are still below the ones measured for local isolated dwarfs. e) The effects of baryons on Mv are such that at almost any time Mv is 10-20% smaller than the corresponding Mv obtained in pure N-body simulations. Our results suggest that rather than increasing the strength of the SN-driven outflows, processes that reduce the SF efficiency even more will help to solve the potential issues faced by the CDM-based simulations of dwarfs., 14 pages, 12 figures. ApJ, published. Minor changes after final Referee's report

Memoria ID12-0169. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2012-2013.

Memoria ID12-0076. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2012-2013.

Memoria ID-029. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2013-2014.

Several occupational distributions for satellite galaxies more massive than ms~4E7 Msun around MW-sized hosts are presented and used to predict their internal dynamics. For this, a galaxy group mock catalog is constructed on the basis of (sub)halo-to-stellar mass relations constrained with the observed Galaxy Stellar Mass Function decomposed into centrals and satellites, and the 2-point correlation functions. For the MW-sized hosts we find that: 6.6% have 2 satellites in the SMC-LMC mass range; their probabilities to have 1, 2 or 3 satellites equal or larger than the LMC, the SMC or Sgr, respectively, are 0. 26, 0. 14, and 0. 14; those hosts with 3 satellites >= Sgr (as the MW) are among the most common cases, though the most and 2nd most massive satellites in these systems are SMALLER than the LMC and SMC by 0.7 and 0.8 dex, respectively. The cumulative satellite mass function is quite broad, the particular configuration of the MW being of low frequency but NOT an outlier (it is within the upper 1sig yet). For the MW satellite configuration, we constrain the halo mass to be Mh>1.4E12 Msun (1sig level). We find that the abundance of massive subhalos should agree with the abundance of massive satellites in all MW-sized hosts (there is not a massive satellite missing problem for LCDM). However, the vmax of the subhalos of satellites with ms, 10 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. arXiv abstract improved

We infer the local stellar-to-halo/subhalo mass relations (MRs) for central and satellite galaxies separately. We constraint this relations by using several combinations of observational data, consisting of the total galaxy stellar mass function, its decomposition into centrals and satellites, and the projected two-point correlation functions measured in different stellar mass bins. The differences among the resulting MRs are within the model-fit uncertainties (which are very small, smaller than the intrinsic scatter between galaxy and halo mass), no matter what combination of data are used. We also constrain the values of the intrinsic scatter around the central-halo (CH) and satellite-subhalo (SS) MRs assuming them to be constant: sigma_c= 0.168+-0.051 dex and sigma_s = 0.172+-0.057 dex, respectively. The CH and SS MRs are actually different, in particular when we take the subhalo mass at the present-day epoch instead of at their accretion time. We calculate several population statistics. We find that the central galaxy is not on average within the mass distribution of the most-massive satellite, even for cluster-sized halos, i.e., centrals are not a mere realization of the high-end of the satellite mass function; however for > 3x10^13 msun halos, ~15% of centrals could be. We also find that the probabilities of MW-sized halos of having N Magellanic-Clouds (MCs)-sized satellites agree well with observational measures; for a halo mass of 2x10^12 msun, the probability to have 2 MCs is 5.4%, but if we exclude those systems with satellites larger than the MCs, then the probability decreases to, 18 pages, 7 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. Some references were added

We extend the abundance matching technique (AMT) to infer the satellite-subhalo and central-halo mass relations (MRs) of galaxies, as well as the corresponding satellite conditional mass functions (CMFs). We use the observed galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) decomposed into centrals and satellites and the LCDM halo/subhalo mass functions as inputs. We explore the effects of defining the subhalo mass at the time of accretion (m_acc) vs. at the time of observation (m_obs). We test the standard assumption that centrals and satellites follow the same MRs, showing that this assumption leads to predictions in disagreement with observations, specially for m_obs. Instead, when the satellite-subhalo MRs are constrained following our AMT, they are always different from the central-halo MR: the smaller the stellar mass (Ms), the less massive is the subhalo of satellites as compared to the halo of centrals of the same Ms. On average, for Ms, 13, pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. Minor changes to previous version

Memoria ID11-210. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2011-2012.

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012. [ES]En este trabajo realizamos una comparación de índices climáticos extremos observados e interpolados. En las investigaciones sobre las consecuencias del cambio climático en eventos extremos, se utilizan simulaciones de los índices de extremos que se obtienen en una malla regular. Para evaluar las simulaciones es preciso interpolar los datos observados a la correspondiente malla regular. Uno de los problemas que plantea la interpolación es el efecto de suavizamiento, ya que produce atenuación de las variaciones y puede dar lugar a pérdida de identificación de los eventos extremos. Por lo tanto, es interesante desarrollar este estudio para comprobar la utilidad de los datos interpolados en estudios de impacto. [EN]In this study we perform a comparison of extreme indices from observed and interpolated dataset. In evaluation studies on simulated data is required to have grid datasets. However, observed data are irregularly distributed and the interpolation procedure may cause some smoothing on datasets mainly in the extreme indices. Therefore, it is interesting to learn about the effect of interpolation on extreme indices to assess their applicability for impact studies. Spatial and temporal analyses were applied to daily maximum and minimum temperatures and also to the derived extremes, summer and frost days. Agradecemos las subvenciones de los proyectos CGL2011-23209 del Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad y SA222A11-2 de la Junta de Castilla y León.

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012. [ES]Resultados inferidos del 4º informe del IPCC y de posteriores análisis de los datos CMIP3 sobre temperatura y precipitación, coinciden en señalar la región del Mediterráneo y la Península Ibérica como zonas especialmente vulnerables a los impactos del cambio climático. Debido a las relaciones existentes entre dichas variables y las teleconexiones, es de gran interés el estudio de estas últimas bajo condiciones de aumento de emisiones por sus aplicaciones en predicciones regionalizadas. En este trabajo se muestran los resultados para la estación de invierno del patrón de la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), obtenido con datos de geopotencial en 500hPa pertenecientes al proyecto CMIP5 y experimentos ‘historical’ y ‘RCP 8.5’. El método utilizado para su obtención es la regresión Parcial por Mínimos Cuadrados (PLS) tomando como referencia los patrones de teleconexión del CPC de la NOAA. Se presentan análisis espaciales y temporales del multi-modelo elaborado a partir de los modelos que mejor representan la NAO, según los resultados que proporciona el diagrama de Taylor. [EN]Results from the IPCC AR4 report and other recent analyses of temperature and precipitation from CMIP3 dataset, agreed that Mediterranean region and Iberian Peninsula are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Due to the connections between those variables and Teleconnections patterns, is interesting to study them under increasing emission scenarios, to apply this study for regional downscaling. This work shows results of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern for winter season (DJF). This pattern was obtained from 500 hPa geopotential height data from the World Climate Research Programme´s (WCRP´s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with the experiments “Historical “ and “RCP 8.5”. We used Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) procedure in order to obtain the patterns and indices, taking into account the patterns of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA as reference. Results focus on spatial and temporal analysis of the multi-model that was built with models that best reproduce the observed NAO according to the Taylor Diagram. Este trabajo se ha realizado con la ayuda de los proyectos de investigación: CGL2011-23209 del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, SA222A11-2 de la Junta de Castilla y León con fondos Europeos del FEDER.

Memoria ID-036. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2010-2011., En este proyecto de innovación docente se han elaborado materiales para el desarrollo de la enseñanza de la asignatura Geología y Climatología (GyC) del grado de Ingeniería Técnica Agroalimentaria (ITA) de la Universidad de Salamanca, con aplicación específica en la parte de Climatología. Para la elaboración de los materiales se tuvieron en consideración los siguientes aspectos: el carácter básico de la asignatura, la cualificación requerida y las competencias que deben adquirir los estudiantes. Por ello, estos materiales deben proporcionar conocimientos básicos descriptivos del sistema climático y de utilidad práctica sobre la influencia de las variaciones climáticas en producciones agrícolas.

"By means of the abundance matching technique we have inferred the local stellar & baryonic-halo mass (Ms & Mb - Mh) relations for central blue and red galaxies. Models of disk galaxies loaded inside A Cold Dark Matter (ACDM) halos are used to probe the obtained blue Mb -Mh relation in the light of observed scaling relations."

Se comparan los resultados de las experiencias docentes colaborativas desarrolladas en asignaturas de diferentes ramas de ciencia. El planteamiento inicial es común: involucrar de forma activa al estudiante en su proceso de aprendizaje. La metodología del trabajo en colaboración fue particularizada según los objetivos de cada asignatura y el nivel de los estudiantes. Como resultado del trabajo se destaca la respuesta favorable y la mayor participación de los estudiantes mediante la incorporación de actividades de estudio colaborativo., We compare the experiences about collaborative activities carried out in different matters of science degrees. The common starting point is focused on getting students actively involved in the learning process. However, different methods were applied according to some specifics objectives and student levels. As result of this work we bring out the students favorably response and higher engagement by using collaborative activities

The observations show that less massive the galaxies are, the higher on average is their specific star formation rate (SSFR = SFR/Ms, Ms is the stellar mass). Such a trend, called the 'SSFR downsizing' (SSFR-DS) phenomenon, is seen for local and high-z (back to z~1-2) galaxy samples. We use observational data related only to disc galaxies and explore the average SSFR change with z for different masses. For Ms in the range ~10^9.5-10^10.5 Msun, the SSFR increases with (1+z) to a power that barely depends on Ms, and at all z's smaller galaxies have ever higher SSFRs. The latter strongly disagree with the LCDM hierarchical mass accretion rates. By means of self-consistent models of disc galaxy evolution inside growing LCDM halos, the effects that disc feedback-driven outflows and gas re-accretion have on the galaxy SSFR histories are explored. The parameters of the outflow and re-accretion schemes are tuned to reproduce the z~0 Mh-Ms relation inferred from observations. In the case of outflows only, the SSFR of individual model galaxies is roughly proportional to (1+z)^2.2 for all the masses with a normalization factor that depends on mass as Ms^0.1, i.e more massive galaxies have slightly larger SSFRs, contrary to the observed strong SSFR-DS trend. For the re-accretion cases, the dependence on z remains approximately the same as without re-infall, but the correlation on Ms even increases for most of the reasonable values of the model parameters. The comparison of models and observations in the SSFR-Ms plane at z~0 shows the divergent trend in SSFR as lower are the masses (upsizing vs downsizing). We explain why the models show the reported trends, and conclude that the SSFR-DS for low-mass galaxies poses a challenge for LCDM-based disc galaxy evolution models. (Abridged), Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures. To appear in MNRAS. Text improved after Referee reports

Ponencia presentada en: XXXI Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el XI Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Sevilla, del 1 al 3 de marzo de 2010. Grupos de Investigación (Micrometeorología y Variabilidad Climática: 910437) financiados por el Banco Santander y la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Financiación Grupos UCM-BSCH GR58/08).

Ponencia presentada en: VII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología: clima, ciudad y ecosistemas, celebrado en Madrid entre el 24 y 26 de noviembre de 2010. [ES]En el contexto de la variabilidad a escala global y las teleconexiones, se investiga cómo las salidas de los modelos climáticos globales son capaces de simular los índices de teleconexión. El estudio se centra en el cálculo de los índices de teleconexión que afectan directamente al clima de la Península Ibérica, como son la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), el Atlántico Oriental (EA), el Escandinavia (SCAND) y el Atlántico Oriental-Oeste de Rusia (EA/WR). Se utilizan los datos de geopotencial en 500-hPa de los modelos climáticos globales del World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) para los experimentos del siglo XX y de emisiones medias A1B. El método para obtener los índices de teleconexión se basa en una regresión por Mínimos Cuadrados Parciales. Se analizan las diferencias espaciales y temporales entre los índices simulados y los que proporcionan en el “Climate Prediction Center”, mediante correlaciones espaciales y tendencias. Este estudio serviría para determinar los posibles cambios de dichos patrones bajo escenarios de cambio climático y cómo estos pueden afectar al clima de la Península Ibérica. [EN]In the context of global variability and teleconnections, we investigate how climate models are able to simulate the Teleconnection Indices. The analysis is focused on the Teleconnection Indices that have impact on Iberian Peninsula climate, which are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA), the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND) and the East Atlantic West Russia (EATL/WRUS). We use 500-hPa geopotential height data from models of World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) of the twenty century (20C3M) and emissions A1B experiments. The procedure to obtain the Teleconnection Indices is based on Partial Least Square (PLS) regression. Comparison of the simulated indices and the ones from Climate Prediction Center is performed in spatial and temporal domains by computing the spatial correlation and trends of the indices. This evaluation could be used to determinate the Teleconnection Patterns changes under warming conditions and how they could affect the Iberian Peninsula climate. Este trabajo se ha realizado con la ayuda de los proyectos de investigación: CGL2008-04619 del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, SA123/A08 de la Junta de Castilla y León con fondos Europeos del FEDER y MOVAC ref.200800050084028 del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente.

Sumario: Capítulo 0: Resumen Ejecutivo e Introducción. Capítulo 1: Revisión de las reconstrucciones paleoclimáticas en la Península Ibérica desde el último periodo glacial. Capítulo 2: Tendencias atmosféricas en la Península Ibérica durante el período instrumental en el contexto de la variabilidad natural. Capítulo 3: Variabilidad oceánica y de nivel de mar en el entorno de la Península Ibérica. Capítulo 4: Teleconexiones climáticas en el entorno de la Península Ibérica. Predictabilidad y cambios esperados. Capítulo 5: Proyecciones regionales de clima sobre la Península Ibérica: modelización de escenarios de cambio climático. ANEXO I: La Pequeña Edad del Hielo (LIA, Little Ice Age) y el Periodo Cálido Medieval (MWP, Medieval Warm Period). ANEXO II: La Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO). ANEXO III: Escenarios de emisiones., El informe "Clima en España: Pasado, presente y futuro" elaborado por los investigadores de la red temática CLIVAR-España se presentó el pasado 12 de Abril de 2010 en Madrid, en un acto oficiado por la secretaria de Estado de Cambio Climático, Teresa Ribera. Este informe sintetiza y evalúa la información existente sobre los aspectos físicos del cambio climático reciente observado en la Península Ibérica e intenta mejorar nuestra comprensión de los cambios climáticos que afectan y han afectado a la PI, para poder anticipar mejor los impactos de futuros cambios en el clima a distintas escalas temporales.

Climate change is nowadays a reality and one of the most important challenges that humanity has to face this century, because of the threat that it represents, among others, for the economy, health, food and safety. There are increasingly more scientific evidences that we are at a critical moment, although we can still tackle the negative consequences of climate change if we take decisive actions at a global level. One of the key actions needed to meet this challenge is to gain as detailed an understanding as possible of how the climate is changing, what the climate will be like in the next hundred years and how these changes are going to affect us. This is where the scientific community plays a central role, since the formulation of policies for mitigating and adapting to climate change depends on accurate scientific knowledge. The CLIVAR-Spain Committee and Thematic Network, whose activities I have been supporting since it was created in 2004, has built itself up over the course of the last five years as a network that seeks to promote climate research and advance scientific knowledge of climate change in Spain. Its first report, published in 2006, entitled “The state of the art of the Spanish contribution to the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) study”, enabled us to gain a better understanding of the state of climate research in Spain. Now this second report comes at a key moment, just after the Copenhagen Summit in which, once again, the urgent need to take steps to face climate change and the importance of scientific knowledge as a guide to this process have been made clear. Structured in five sections, this report contains highly relevant information about climate variability and climate changes (both past and recent), future climate projections and projected variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula, which, as the IPCC indicates in its recent Fourth Assessment Report, is a region that is particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Undoubtedly, this information will be highly useful for planning actions in areas liable to be affected by climate change. As I did at the time of the presentation of the First Report, I would like once again to express my support to the CLIVAR-Spain committee and to encourage it to continue to publish periodic assessment reports. I also wish to extend my support to the Spanish scientists who comprise the CLIVAR-Spain Thematic Network, so that they continue to endeavour in their research on climate and climate change in Spain. Without a doubt, both efforts will help boost the research activities of other national and international initiatives in the field of climate variability and climate change and will promote greater participation of national research efforts and researchers at the international level.

Póster presentado en: VII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología: clima, ciudad y ecosistemas, celebrado en Madrid entre el 24 y 26 de noviembre de 2010. Este trabajo se ha realizado con la ayuda de los proyectos de investigación: CGL2008‐04619 del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, SA123/A08 de la Junta de Castilla y León con fondos Europeos del FEDER y MOVAC ref.200800050084028 del Ministerio de Medio Ambiente.

Sumario: Capítulo 0: Resumen Ejecutivo e Introducción. Capítulo 1: Revisión de las reconstrucciones paleoclimáticas en la Península Ibérica desde el último periodo glacial. Capítulo 2: Tendencias atmosféricas en la Península Ibérica durante el período instrumental en el contexto de la variabilidad natural. Capítulo 3: Variabilidad oceánica y de nivel de mar en el entorno de la Península Ibérica. Capítulo 4: Teleconexiones climáticas en el entorno de la Península Ibérica. Predictabilidad y cambios esperados. Capítulo 5: Proyecciones regionales de clima sobre la Península Ibérica: modelización de escenarios de cambio climático. ANEXO I: La Pequeña Edad del Hielo (LIA, Little Ice Age) y el Periodo Cálido Medieval (MWP, Medieval Warm Period). ANEXO II: La Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO). ANEXO III: Escenarios de emisiones. El informe "Clima en España: Pasado, presente y futuro" elaborado por los investigadores de la red temática CLIVAR-España se presentó el pasado 12 de Abril de 2010 en Madrid, en un acto oficiado por la secretaria de Estado de Cambio Climático, Teresa Ribera. Este informe sintetiza y evalúa la información existente sobre los aspectos físicos del cambio climático reciente observado en la Península Ibérica e intenta mejorar nuestra comprensión de los cambios climáticos que afectan y han afectado a la PI, para poder anticipar mejor los impactos de futuros cambios en el clima a distintas escalas temporales.

Memoria ID-0061. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la Innovación Docente, curso 2008-2009. El objetivo general de este proyecto docente es la organización de recursos que se utilizan en la enseñanza de la Física del Clima para adaptarlo a los métodos de enseñanza del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior. El objetivo concreto del proyecto docente solicitado fue la elaboración de tareas y cuestiones para evaluar el aprendizaje.

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008. [ES]En este trabajo se analiza la tendencia de la precipitación en la Península Ibérica para los climas del siglo XX y XXI, usando los datos de modelos climáticos y los escenarios de emisiones (SRES; Special Report on Emission Scenarios) actualmente en uso del CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3). Este análisis de la tendencia de la precipitación se realiza de forma indirecta haciendo uso de las relaciones entre las variables climáticas a gran escala asociadas con la precipitación, como la presión a nivel del mar. [EN]In this work we analyse the precipitation trend over the Iberian Peninsula for the 20th and 21st centuries using data from the current GCMs (Global Climate Models) and the emission scenarios (SRES, Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the phase 3 of the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). This trend analysis will be carried out through large-scale climatic variables which were demonstrated to be related with precipitation, such as the sea level pressure. Este trabajo ha sido posible gracias a diversos proyectos tanto nacionales como autonómicos, actualmente los proyectos del MEC CGL2005-06600-CO3- 01/CLI y de la Junta de Castilla y León SA039/A05.

Ponencia presentada en: XXX Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el IX Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Zaragoza, del 5 al 7 de mayo de 2008. Este trabajo ha sido posible gracias a diversos proyectos tanto nacionales como autonómicos, actualmente los proyectos del MEC CGL2005-06600-CO3-01/CLI y de la Junta de Castilla y León SA039/A05.

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008. [ES]La calidad de los datos es un requisito necesario en estudios de variabilidad climática, principalmente cuando se analizan datos de gran resolución espacial y temporal. Para analizar los extremos climáticos es preciso utilizar datos diarios, pero estas series temporales evidencian algunos errores debidos a discontinuidades y otros al azar; por ejemplo, que la precipitación sea menor que cero y que la temperatura máxima sea menor que la mínima para un día determinado. El procedimiento para corregir estos errores resulta muy complicado y hemos adoptado los métodos desarrollados en http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI /software.shtml, programados en lenguajes R (RClimDex y RHTest) y Fortran (FClimDex y FHTest). Mostraremos algunos ejemplos aplicados a datos observados “in situ” y compararemos la calidad de estos datos frente a la de los datos de reanálisis del NCEP/NCAR. [EN]Data quality has to be considered in studies about climate variability, especially when data have high spatial and temporal resolutions. The extreme climate research requires daily data which very often have errors due to discontinuities and other random causes, for example, we found some negative precipitation values, and maximum temperature lower than minimum. Therefore, we need to adjust the data to correct these errors. The methods to obtain homogeneous data are complicated. We have addressed the procedure developed in http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.shtml, that provides software in R (RClimDex and RHTest) and Fortran (FClimDex and FHTest) languages. In this paper we present some examples about the adjustment technique applied to observed data “in situ” and we compare the quality of the observed against the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Este trabajo ha sido financiado con los proyectos de investigación MEC-CGL2005-06600-CO-01/CLI, de la Junta de Castilla y León SA039/A05, cofinanciados con fondos europeos y con el proyecto de ayudas a la investigación “Memoria D. Samuel Solórzano Barruso” de 2008.

Climate variables responsible for inter-annual variations in the winter cereal yield in Spain were identified and climate information was translated into crop production. Empirical orthogonal functions and correlation analyses were applied to regional and large-scale climate variables to ascertain the links between climate and winter cereal yield. Interactions between climate and winter cereal productivity in Spain can be summarized as follows: the start of the growing season depends on minimum temperature, and crop maturity is affected by drought, maximum temperature, sea-level air pressure, moisture fluxes, and the jet stream, as well as by indices of the Scandinavian Pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation. A statistical approach has been derived to describe variability in cereal productivity in Spain taking into account the previous potential predictors. In general, the best atmospheric conditions for increasing winter cereal productivity in Spain are warmer winters, cooler and wet springs, with prevalent meridional circulation at upper levels. The observed trend of increasing sea level pressure toward the western Mediterranean could cause a loss in the winter cereal yield., This work was funded by National Research Project MEC-CGL2005-06600CO3-01/CLI and the Regional Project of Castilla and León SA039/A05 with FEDER European funds.

We derive the stellar-to-halo mass relations, SHMR, of local blue and red central galaxies separately, as well as the fraction of halos hosting blue/red central galaxies. We find that: 1) the SHMR of central galaxies is segregated by color, with blue centrals having a SHMR above the one of red centrals; at logMh~12, the Ms/Mh ratio of the blue centrals is ~0.05, which is ~1.7 times larger than the value of red centrals. 2) The intrinsic scatters of the SHMRs of red and blue centrals are ~0.14 and ~0.11dex, respectively. The intrinsic scatter of the average SHMR of all central galaxies changes from ~0.20dex to ~0.14dex in the 11.3, Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ (20/Nov/2014). 23 pages, 16 figures. This version has substantial changes after Referee's report. Parts of Section 5 from our previous version will be publish in a follow-up paper

[1] The consistency of two statistical downscaling methods and two different predictors to estimate past (last millennium) and future (21st century) precipitation in the Iberian and Scandinavian Peninsulas is assessed in the surrogate climate of a coupled climate model simulation. The methods are based on canonical correlation analysis and the search for analogs, with sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 mb geopotential height as predictors. The precipitation downscaled by the statistical methods within the simulated climate is compared with the direct model output. The estimation based on SLP alone agrees with the modeled precipitation on the Iberian Peninsula. However, the estimates for Scandinavia in the 21st century are drier than the target precipitation. Geopotential height as predictor performs worse than SLP in both regions yielding too dry future climate. Differences in both regions are analyzed in terms of relative humidity, which contributes to future precipitation changes of Scandinavian precipitation.

Ponencia presentada en: XXIX Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el VII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Pamplona, del 24 al 26 de abril de 2006. Esta labor está financiada por los Gobiernos Central (Proyecto de Investigación CGL2005-06600-CO3-01/CLI) y Autonómico (Junta de Castilla y León, Proyecto de Investigación SA039A05).

Ponencia presentada en: V Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Zaragoza del 18 al 21 de septiembre de 2006. [ES]La sequía es uno de los desastres naturales más frecuentes en la península Ibérica dando lugar a delicados debates sobre los derechos a compartir el agua. Por este motivo, consideramos de gran interés proporcionar información sobre la tendencia de la precipitación acumulada así como de los índices de precipitación estandarizada y de precipitación efectiva de Gaussen y de Köppen, obtenidos estos a partir de datos observados de precipitación y temperatura sobre la península Ibérica. De las conclusiones de este estudio destacamos la tendencia a disminuir tanto de la precipitación como de su efectividad en el periodo 1949-2005. La significación de la tendencia varía en los diferentes lugares de la península obteniendo mayor disminución hacia la cornisa cantábrica y hacia el sur peninsular. También, comprobamos que en el otoño la tendencia es creciente hacia el sur-oeste peninsular. Una posible causa de la inhomogeneidad en la distribución de la tendencia sería la diferente interacción entre los sistemas de circulación atmosférica con las características climáticas locales. Los resultados derivados de este trabajo tienen un especial interés en los estudios de impacto climático. [EN]Drought is one of the most natural hazards that occurs in the Iberian peninsula, which has created concerns and debates about shared water rights. This current discussion has motivated this study to analyse the trend of precipitation, standardized precipitation index and the effective precipitation from Gaussen and Koppen formulations by using observed data from different sources. One of the main results derived from the study is the decrease of the amount of precipitation along the period 1949-2005. The significance of this trend is not uniform across the Iberian Peninsula, the most significant decreasing trend is found toward the Cantabric coast and southern part of the peninsula. The distribution of the trend shows quite heterogeneity; for example, increase trend is found in Autumn to the west Peninsula. These results must be due to different relationships between atmospheric circulation and local climate which has to be taken into account in climate impact studies. Este trabajo se ha realizado con ayuda de los siguientes proyectos: MEC-CGL2005-06600- C03-01/CLI y de la Junta de Castilla y León: SA039A05.

Ponencia presentada en: IV Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología "El Clima entre el Mar y la Montaña", celebrado en Santander del 2 al 5 de noviembre de 2004. [ES]Se presenta una comparación de los resultados proporcionados por distintos modelos climáticos (ECHAM4/OPYC3 y HadCM3) con los datos observados para describir el comportamiento de la precipitación de invierno en la Península Ibérica. También se analiza la relación de esta estructura de la precipitación con la dinámica de la atmósfera, a partir del análisis de los datos de presión a nivel del mar de los modelos. Los resultados muestran la adecuación de la estructura espacial, mientras que la estructura temporal y espectral es menos apropiada. [EN]In this study, an analysis was made of the correspondences and/or discrepancies between observed winter precipitation data and the data from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 climatic models, and we analyse the relation between precipitation and atmospheric dynamics, using the sea level pressure data from the models. As regards the climatic models considered, in general the results point to their suitability for describing the spatial distribution of winter precipitation, whereas the spectral association is less appropriate. Este trabajo se ha llevado a cabo con el soporte económico del Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología del Gobierno español, mediante el proyecto de investigación REN2002-04584-C04-02.

Ponencia presentada en: IV Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología "El Clima entre el Mar y la Montaña", celebrado en Santander del 2 al 5 de noviembre de 2004. [ES]El objetivo de este estudio es comprobar la utilidad de la técnica de Autómatas Celulares (CA) par describir la ocurrencia de extremos de precipitación. Las series temporales de precipitación presentan algunos grados de periodicidad o fluctuaciones debidas a variabilidad climática natural. Una vez filtradas estas componentes mediante técnicas espectrales, aplicamos el modelo propuesto de CA a la serie residual con el fin de caracterizar las rachas secas y húmedas. Este método va a simular dos estados para excesos de precipitación, el estado 0 se corresponde con precipitaciones inferiores al percentil 75, mientras que el estado 1 para las superiores al percentil 75. De forma análoga procedemos para caracterizar rachas de precipitación escasa, consideraremos estado 0 para precipitaciones superiores o igual al percentil 25 y estado 1 para precipitaciones inferiores a dicho percentil. El método lo aplicamos a datos mensuales de precipitación en Salamanca en el periodo 1949 a 2003. Los primeros resultados indican que se consigue aproximar en un 60% la ocurrencia de extremos de precipitación, lo cuál sería de gran interés por su aplicación en planificaciones agrícolas. [EN]The objective of this study is to show the utility of using Cellular Automata (CA) to describe the occurrence of the precipitation extremes. Since the precipitation time series contain some quasi-periodic fluctuations, it is required to filter these components before applying the CA model to characterize the dry and wet spells. The CA used to describe the wet spells consists of two states 0 and 1, which were established according to the threshold of 75 percentile. Similarly, to describe the dry spells we propose a CA with two states 0 and 1 for values higher and lower than 25 percentile respectively. The method is applied to monthly precipitation data of Salamanca (Spain) for the period 1949 to 2003. The first results indicate that the model can capture the occurrence of the precipitation extremes with an 60% of accuracy, therefore this characterization could be useful for agricultural planning. Este trabajo se ha realizado con la subvención del proyecto “Fundación Memoria de D. Manuel Solórzano Barruso” y del proyecto “REN2002-04584-CO-02/CLI” del MCYT.

Ponencia presentada en: III Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología “El agua y el clima”, celebrado en Palma de Mallorca del 16 al 19 de junio de 2002. [ES]Nuestro interés en este trabajo se centra en estudiar la validez de la estructura espacial y temporal de la precipitación estacional de invierno en la Península Ibérica, utilizando diferentes tipos de datos. Para ello se comparan los patrones de precipitación promedio y la estructura espacial y temporal obtenida con el análisis de la variabilidad de los datos observados, con los patrones obtenidos a partir de los datos de reanálisis del NCEP/NCAR y de los modelos considerados (ECHAM4/OPYC3 y HadCM3) para el mismo área y periodo temporal. Se comprueba el buen acuerdo espacial y temporal entre los datos observados y de reanálisis, mientras que para los modelos se encuentra acuerdo entre las estructuras espaciales, pero no reflejan la variabilidad temporal en el área. [EN]The objective of this paper is to validate the winter precipitation patterns by comparison of the results derived from observations, reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR) and climatic modelling (ECHAM4/- OPYC3 and HadCM3). Principal Component Analysis was applied to obtain the spatial and temporal structures. The results indicate good agreement among the spatial patterns. Very high significant correlation was obtained between observed data and reanalysis; however, model data do not reconstruct the observed variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Este trabajo se ha llevado a cabo gracias a la subvención de la C.I.C.Y.T., mediante el proyecto de investigación CLI99-0845-CO3-02, y de la Junta de Castilla y León, mediante el proyecto SA027/02.

Ponencia presentada en: III Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología “El agua y el clima”, celebrado en Palma de Mallorca del 16 al 19 de junio de 2002. [ES]Hemos analizado las series de precipitación acumulada en el comienzo de la primavera (febrero, marzo y abril) de la Península Ibérica porque hemos identificado una tendencia de disminución en febrero y marzo, siendo más destacada hacia el sur de la península. La variabilidad de la precipitación fue caracterizada mediante el método de análisis de componentes principales. Las series temporales asociadas a los modos de variación se relacionaron con índices climáticos de circulación (teleconexión) y de temperaturas del mar como El Nino y la temperatura en zonas tropicales. Hemos obtenido que la disminución de la precipitación se corresponde con una tendencia de aumento de los índices oscilación del Ártico, El Niño y la temperatura del mar en la región tropical (10S- 10N). [EN]The accumulated precipitation in February, March and April over the Iberian peninsula has been analysed because a decreasing trend was identified in February and March, it is higher towards southern part of the peninsula. The precipitation variations were characterized by means of principal component analysis and the associated time series were related to teleconexion and sea surface temperature (SST) indices like El Niño and SST over global tropical regions (10S-10N). There is a correspondence between the decreasing precipitation and the increasing of the Arctic oscillation, El Niño and the tropical SST.

International audience; Winter precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula was investigated by obtaining the spatial and temporal patterns. Empirical Orthogonal Functions were used to describe the variance distribution and to compress the precipitation data into a few modes. The corresponding spatial patterns divide the peninsula into climatic regions according to precipitation variations. The associated time series were related to large scale circulation indices and tropical sea surface temperature anomalies by using lag cross-correlation and cross-spectrum. The major findings are: the most influential indices for winter precipitation were the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern; coherent oscillations were detected at about eight years between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and some dynamic consequences of the circulation on precipitation over the Iberian peninsula were examined during drought and wet spells. In the end statistical methods have been proposed to downscale seasonal precipitation prediction. Keywords: Winter precipitation, circulation indices, Iberian peninsula climate, climate variations, precipitation trend

It is well known that circulation models do not properly simulate climatic regional processes. We are therefore, learning about precipitation variations associated with circulation in order to select potential predictors that can be used in a downscaling strategy. The results obtained for spring precipitation will be discussed. A principal component analysis was performed to obtain the spatial and temporal modes of spring precipitation. Dry and wet periods were identified on the principal component time series, and the anomalous periods were compared with composite circulation maps. On the other hand, linear models between precipitation and North Hemisphere circulation indices were proposed. The Arctic Oscillation, East Atlantic/West Russian and Southern Oscillation indices were the most influential. The results suggested that the models are a good approximation to provide information about drought and rainy conditions. The study was carried out using data from different sources: observations and reanalysis projects.