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With the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the production of high quality disaggregated estimates of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators has taken greater significance. In this context, sample surveys are characterized by samples that are either not large enough to guarantee reliable direct estimates for all relevant sub-populations, or that do not cover all possible disaggregation domains. To address these issues, indirect estimation approaches such as small area estimation (SAE) techniques can be adopted. The literature on the use of SAE in official statistics is broad and in continuous progress, yet the number of case studies on SAE methods applied to SDG indicators can still be expanded. After a brief review of the main SAE approaches available along with their principal fields of application, the present paper aims contributing to fill this gap by presenting a case study on SAE to produce disaggregated estimates of SDG Indicator 2.3.1, measuring average labour productivity of small-scale food producers. The discussed empirical exercise is based on a Fay-Herriot area-level SAE model, integrating survey data with area-level auxiliary information retrieved from multiple trustworthy geospatial information systems. Area-level SAE models have the advantage of being easy to implement and do not require accessing survey microdata and unit-level auxiliary information. These characteristics, jointly with the great potentials offered by modern geospatial information systems, offer the possibility of producing good quality disaggregated estimates of SDG indicators at high frequency and granular disaggregation level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty mapping is a valuable tool for governments and international organizations to identify the geographical areas and population groups that are most deprived or vulnerable. This approach can lead to designing and monitoring development policies more effectively. This article presents the recent experience of the Statistics Division of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in using Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods to combine information from household surveys, censuses and satellite imagery to deliver poverty estimates at the provincial and municipal levels, which could not be attained using the household surveys alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the benefits of combining household surveys with satellite and other geospatial data to generate small area estimates of non-monetary poverty. Using data from Tanzania and Sri Lanka and applying a household-level empirical best (EB) predictor mixed model, we find that combining survey data with geospatial data significantly improves both the precision and accuracy of our non-monetary poverty estimates. While the EB predictor model moderately underestimates standard errors of those point estimates, coverage rates are similar to standard survey-based standard errors that assume independent outcomes across clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ibrahim Jahun,1 Emilio Dirlikov,2 Solomon Odafe,1 Aminu Yakubu,1 Andrew T Boyd,2 Pamela Bachanas,2 Charles Nzelu,3 Gambo Aliyu,4 Tedd Ellerbrock,2 Mahesh Swaminathan1 On behalf of CDC Nigeria ART Surge Team1US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Global HIV and TB, Center for Global Health - Nigeria, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria; 2US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Global HIV and TB, Center for Global Health, Atlanta, GA, USA; 3Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH), Abuja, Nigeria; 4National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA), Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, NigeriaCorrespondence: Ibrahim JahunCenters for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-Nigeria, Embassy of the United States of America, Central Business District, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, NigeriaTel +234 8037013715Email drjahun@yahoo.co.ukPurpose: The 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) showed Nigeria’s progress toward the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets: 47% of HIV-positive individuals knew their status; of these, 96% were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART); and of these, 81% were virally suppressed. To improve identification of HIV-positive individuals, Nigeria developed an Enhanced Community Case-Finding Package (ECCP). We describe ECCP implementation in nine states and assess its effect.Methods: ECCP included four core strategies (small area estimation [SAE] of people living with HIV [PLHIV], map of HIV-positive patients by residence, HIV risk-screening tool [HRST], and index testing [IT]) and four supportive strategies (alternative healthcare outlets, performance-based incentives for field testers, Project Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes, and interactive dashboards). ECCP was deployed in nine of 10 states prioritized for ART scale-up. Weekly program data (October 2019–March 2020) were tracked and analyzed.Results: Of the total 774 LGAs in Nigeria, using SAE, 103 (13.3%) high-burden LGAs were identified, in which 2605 (28.0%) out of 9,294 hotspots were prioritized by mapping newly identified PLHIV by residential addresses. Over 22 weeks, among 882,449 individuals screened using HRST, 723,993 (82.0%) were eligible and tested for HIV (state range, 43.7– 90.4%), out of which 20,616 were positive. Through IT, an additional 3,724 PLHIV were identified. In total, 24,340 PLHIV were identified and 97.4% were linked to life-saving antiretroviral therapy. The number of newly identified PLHIV increased 17-fold over 22 weeks (week 1: 89; week 22: 1,632). Overall mean HIV positivity rate by state was 3.3% (range, 1.8– 6.4%).Conclusion: Using ECCP in nine states in Nigeria increased the number of PLHIV in the community who knew their status, allowing them to access life-saving care and decreasing the risk of HIV transmission.Keywords: ART Surge, small area estimation, HIV risk assessment tool, index partner testing

In economic studies researchers are often interested in the estimation of the distribution function or certain functions of the distribution function such as quantiles. This work focuses on the estimation quantiles as inverses of the estimates of the distribution function in the presence of auxiliary information that is correlated with the study variable. In the paper a plug-in estimator of the distribution function is proposed which is used to obtain quantiles in the population and in the small areas. Performance of the proposed method is compared with other estimators of the distribution function and quantiles using the simulation study. The obtained results show that the proposed method usually has smaller relative biases and relative RMSE comparing to other methods of obtaining quantiles based on inverting the distribution function.

Abstract Background Like many developing countries, Thailand has experienced a rapid rise in obesity, accompanied by a rapid change in occupational structure. It is plausible that these two trends are related, with movement into sedentary occupations leading to increases in obesity. National health examination survey data contains information on obesity and socioeconomic conditions that can help untangle the relationship, but analysis is challenging because of small sample sizes. Methods This paper explores the relationship between occupation and obesity using data on 10,127 respondents aged 20–59 from the 2009 National Health Examination Survey. Obesity is measured using waist circumference. Modelling is carried out using an approach known as Multiple Regression with Post-Stratification (MRP). We use Bayesian hierarchical models to construct prevalence estimates disaggregated by age, sex, education, urban-rural residence, region, and occupation, and use census population weights to aggregate up. The Bayesian hierarchical model is designed to protect against overfitting and false discovery, which is particularly important in an exploratory study such as this one. Results There is no clear relationship between the overall sedentary nature of occupations and obesity. Instead, obesity appears to vary occupation by occupation. For instance, women in professional occupations, and men who are agricultural or fishery workers, have relatively low rates of obesity. Conclusion Bayesian hierarchical models plus post-stratification offers new possibilities for using surveys to learn about complex health issues.

In small area estimation (SAE), using direct conventional methods will not lead to reliable estimates because the sample size is small compared to the population. Small Area Estimation under Fay Herriot Model is used to borrow strength from auxiliary variables to improve the effectiveness of a sample size. However, the normality assumption is a limiting assumption for heavy-tailed data and outlying observations. Also, it is usually assumed that the predictors are measured without errors, which can be easily violated in SAE. In this study, we provide a more flexible model beyond these limitations, which is more accurate than the existing models. Specifically, we study SAE in the partially linear mixed-effects model where measurement error is present for the predictors and the vectors of random components and error jointly follow a multivariate t-distribution. Numerical studies are carried out to illustrate the superior performance of the proposed model in the prediction accuracy sense. • Existence of measurement error and non-normal distribution of errors are unavoidable in small area estimation. • Non-linear relationship between covariates and response is usual. • Semi-parametric elliptical linear mixed model can handle all these challenges simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we propose some direct and synthetic logarithmic estimators for estimating the domain mean of small area based on a simple random sampling design. The mean square error expressions of the proposed direct and synthetic estimators are obtained to first order approximation. The efficiency conditions are obtained under which the proposed direct and synthetic estimators dominate their conventional aspirants. The performances of the suggested direct and synthetic logarithmic estimators are examined by a comprehensive simulation study carried out on some artificially drawn symmetric and asymmetric populations. Furthermore, a real data application of the suggested methods is also provided as a case study using the paddy crop acreage data for small domains, where small domains are the revenue inspector circles (RIC) in Mohanlalganj tehsil, Uttar Pradesh, India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Local policymakers require information about public health, housing and well-being at small geographical areas. A municipality can for example use this information to organize targeted activities with the aim of improving the well-being of their residents. Surveys are often used to gather data, but many neighborhoods can have only few or even zero respondents. In that case, estimating the status of the local population directly from survey responses is prone to be unreliable. Methods: Small Area Estimation (SAE) is a technique to provide estimates at small geographical levels with only few or even zero respondents. In classical individual-level SAE, a complex statistical regression model is fitted to the survey responses by using auxiliary administrative data for the population as predictors, the missing responses are then predicted and aggregated to the desired geographical level. In this paper we compare gradient boosted trees (XGBoost), a well-known machine learning technique, to a structured additive regression model (STAR) designed for the specific problem of estimating public health and well-being in the whole population of the Netherlands. Results: We compare the accuracy and performance of these models using out-of-sample predictions with five-fold Cross Validation (5CV). We do this for three data sets of different sample sizes and outcome types. Compared to the STAR model, gradient boosted trees are able to improve both the accuracy of the predictions and the total time taken to get these predictions. Even though the models appear quite similar in overall accuracy, the small area predictions at neighborhood level sometimes differ significantly. It may therefore make sense to pursue slightly more accurate models for better predictions into small areas. However, one of the biggest benefits is that XGBoost does not require prior knowledge or model specification. Data preparation and modelling is much easier, since the method automatically handles missing data, non-linear responses, interactions and accounts for spatial correlation structures. Conclusions: In this paper we provide new nationwide estimates of health, housing and well-being indicators at neighborhood level in the Netherlands, see 'Online materials'. We demonstrate that machine learning provides a good alternative to complex statistical regression modelling for small area estimation in terms of accuracy, robustness, speed and data preparation. These results can be used to make appropriate policy decisions at a local level and make recommendations about which estimation methods are beneficial in terms of accuracy, time and budget constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Child undernutrition is one of the 10 most significant public health problems worldwide. There is a rapidly growing demand to produce reliable estimates at the micro administrative level with small sample sizes. In this research, the authors employed small area estimation techniques to estimate the prevalence of malnutrition at the zonal level among children under five in Ethiopia. The small area estimation concept was sought for by linking the most recent possible survey data and census data in Ethiopia. The results show that there is spatial variation of stunting, wasting and being underweight across the zone level, showing different locations facing different challenges or different extents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socioeconomic indicators play a crucial role in monitoring political actions over time and across regions. Income-based indicators such as the median income of sub-populations can provide information on the impact of measures, e.g., on poverty reduction. Regional information is usually published on an aggregated level. Due to small sample sizes, these regional aggregates are often associated with large standard errors or are missing if the region is unsampled or the estimate is simply not published. For example, if the median income of Hispanic or Latino Americans from the American Community Survey is of interest, some county-year combinations are not available. Therefore, a comparison of different counties or time-points is partly not possible. We propose a new predictor based on small area estimation techniques for aggregated data and bivariate modeling. This predictor provides empirical best predictions for the partially unavailable county-year combinations. We provide an analytical approximation to the mean squared error. The theoretical findings are backed up by a large-scale simulation study. Finally, we return to the problem of estimating the county-year estimates for the median income of Hispanic or Latino Americans and externally validate the estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is a critical need for maternal and child health data at the local level (for example, county), yet most counties lack sustainable resources or capabilities to collect local-level data. In such case, model-based small area estimation (SAE) could be a feasible approach. SAE for maternal or infant health-related behaviors at small areas has never been conducted or evaluated. Methods: We applied multilevel regression with post-stratification approach to produce county-level estimates using Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) data, 2016–2018 (n = 65,803 from 23 states) for 2 key outcomes, breastfeeding at 8 weeks and infant non-supine sleeping position. Results: Among the 1,471 counties, the median model estimate of breastfeeding at 8 weeks was 59.8% (ranged from 34.9 to 87.4%), and the median of infant non-supine sleeping position was 16.6% (ranged from 10.3 to 39.0%). Strong correlations were found between model estimates and direct estimates for both indicators at the state level. Model estimates for both indicators were close to direct estimates in magnitude for Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania. Conclusion: Our findings support this approach being potentially applied to other maternal and infant health and behavioral indicators in PRAMS to facilitate public health decision-making at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-level statistics on child undernutrition are highly prioritized by stakeholders for measuring and monitoring progress on the sustainable development goals. In this regard district-representative data were collected in the Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2019 for identifying localised disparities. However, district-level estimates of undernutrition indicators - stunting, wasting and underweight - remain largely unexplored. This study aims to estimate district-level prevalence of these indicators as well as to explore their disparities at sub-national (division) and district level spatio-demographic domains cross-classified by children sex, age-groups, and place of residence. Bayesian multilevel models are developed at the sex-age-residence-district level, accounting for cross-sectional, spatial and spatio-demographic variations. The detailed domain-level predictions are aggregated to higher aggregation levels, which results in numerically consistent and reasonable estimates when compared to the design-based direct estimates. Spatio-demographic distributions of undernutrition indicators indicate south-western districts have lower vulnerability to undernutrition than north-eastern districts, and indicate significant inequalities within and between administrative hierarchies, attributable to child age and place of residence. These disparities in undernutrition at both aggregated and disaggregated spatio-demographic domains can aid policymakers in the social inclusion of the most vulnerable to meet the sustainable development goals by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional prevalence estimation requires the use of suitable statistical methods on epidemiologic data with substantial local detail. Small area estimation with medical treatment records as covariates marks a promising combination for this purpose. However, medical routine data often has strong internal correlation due to diagnosis-related grouping in the records. Depending on the strength of the correlation, the space spanned by the covariates can become rank-deficient. In this case, prevalence estimates suffer from unacceptable uncertainty as the individual contributions of the covariates to the model cannot be identified properly. We propose an area-level logit mixed model for regional prevalence estimation with a new fitting algorithm to solve this problem. We extend the Laplace approximation to the log-likelihood by an ℓ 2 -penalty in order to stabilize the estimation process in the presence of covariate rank-deficiency. Empirical best predictors under the model and a parametric bootstrap for mean squared error estimation are presented. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to evaluate the properties of our methodology in a controlled environment. We further provide an empirical application where the district-level prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Germany is estimated using health insurance records. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to assess the performance of the Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) and the Empirical Best Predictor (EBP) Small Area Estimation (SAE) models in estimating the Foster-Greer-Thobecke (FGT) poverty indices for the Northern Region of Ghana in the presence of outliers. The sixth round of the Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS6) data and the 2010 Population and Housing Census (2010 PHC) data were used for the study. The performances of these SAE models under normality and non-normality assumptions were evaluated by computing and comparing their Absolute Relative Biases and Relative Root Mean Squared Errors values under both conditions by conducting a model-based simulation study in the absence and presence of outlier contaminated data. Results from the study showed that no matter the level of contamination, the EBP model is a better performer and more stable than the ELL model in estimating all the FGT poverty indicators for the Region. Therefore, it was recommended that in future poverty estimating exercises, the EBP model be used to estimate the FGT poverty indicators for the Northern Region of Ghana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends in aggregate growth and poverty reduction hide a multiplicity of development processes at the local level. The analysis reported in this paper exploits a unique panel dataset of poverty maps covering almost 2400 municipalities in Mexico and spanning 22 years, first, to test hypothesis that there is within-country income convergence. Second, through a decomposition of the poverty convergence elasticity, the analysis investigates whether this convergence, if it exists, has translated into poverty convergence. In a context of overall stagnant economic growth and poverty reduction since 1990, the analysis finds evidence of both income and poverty convergence among municipalities. As a cause of these, the results point to a combination of positive performance among the poorest municipalities and stagnant or deteriorating performance among more well-off municipalities. Redistributive programs such as cash transfers to poor households have played an important role in driving these results by bolstering income growth among the poorest municipalities, while also inducing progressive changes in the distribution of income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transgender and nonbinary (TNB) populations are disproportionately affected by HIV and few local health departments or HIV surveillance systems collect/report data on TNB identities. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of HIV testing among TNB adults by US county and state, with a focus on the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) geographies. Methods: We applied a Bayesian hierarchical spatial small area estimation model to data from the 2015 US Transgender Survey, a large national cross-sectional Internet-based survey. We estimated the county- and state-level proportion of TNB adults who ever tested or tested for HIV in the last year by gender identity, race/ethnicity, and age. Results: Our analysis included 26,100 TNB participants with valid zip codes who resided in 1688 counties (54% of all 3141 counties that cover 92% of the US population). The median county-level proportion of TNB adults who ever tested for HIV was 44% (range 10%-80%) and who tested in the last year was 17% (range 4%-44%). Within most counties, testing was highest among transgender women, black respondents, and people aged >=25 years. HIV testing was lowest among nonbinary people and young adults aged <25 years. The proportion of TNB adults who tested within the last year was very low in most EHE counties and in all 7 rural states. Conclusions: HIV testing among TNB adults is likely below national recommendations in the majority of EHE geographies. Geographic variation in HIV testing patterns among TNB adults indicates that testing strategies need to be tailored to local settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the spatial distribution of income and education inequalities and their association in Mexico, focusing on the municipal level. We rely on a small area estimation methodology to construct measures of income inequality that are representative at the municipal level. We also construct variables accounting for education inequality. Based on these variables and on an exploratory spatial analysis, we emphasize a negative association between income and education inequalities, particularly salient among the poor and ethnically diverse municipalities from the southern states such as Oaxaca. Moreover, results from spatial econometrics analyses reveal the existence a U-inverted association between these two types of inequalities. Our results are discussed in relation to education returns, employment opportunities and migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2 nd Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of the United Nations attempt to eliminate the potential hunger and food insecurity issues by 2030, but in the plight of COVID19 pandemic it has become far more critical and persistent issue globally as well as in India. The nation-wide socio-economic surveys of National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) in India are designed to produce reliable and representative estimates of important food insecurity parameters at state and national level for both rural and urban sectors separately but these surveys cannot be used directly to generate reliable district level estimates. Whereas, efficient and representative disaggregated level estimates for the extent (or incidence) of food insecurity prevalence has direct impact on strategizing effective policy plans and monitoring progress towards eliminating food insecurity. In this backdrop, the paper outlines small area estimation approach to estimate the incidence of food insecurity across the districts of rural Uttar Pradesh in India by linking data from the 2011–12 Household Consumer Expenditure Survey of NSSO, and the 2011 Indian Population Census. A spatial map has been generated showing spatial disparity for the incidence of food insecurity in Uttar Pradesh. These disaggregated level estimates are relevant and purposeful for SDG indicator 2.1.2 – severity of food insecurity. The estimates and map of food insecurity incidences are expected to deliver invaluable information to the policy-analysts and decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.

Based on some theoretical results, we recommend a new algorithm for estimating the total and mean of a subpopulation variable for the case of a known subpopulation size, which is different from the algorithm recommended by most of sampling books. The latter usually recommend the multiplication of the subpopulation sample mean by the subpopulation size rather than the subpopulation total estimator for the unknown subpopulation size. We present a criterion to determine which estimator is more efficient. The criterion shows that the traditional total subpopulation estimator for unknown subpopulation size will be more efficient if the subpopulation mean is close to zero. Using an innovative procedure, we develop a new estimator, and we study its properties using real data. The new estimator is potentially an appropriate direct estimator in a composite estimator for small area estimation.

This paper demonstrates a process for translating a database of forest measurements to interactive dashboards through which users can access statistically defensible estimates and analyses anywhere in the conterminous US. It taps the extensive Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot network along with national remotely sensed data layers to produce estimates using widely accepted model-assisted and small area estimation methodologies. It leverages a decade’s worth of statistical and computational research on FIA’s flexible estimation engine, FIESTA, and provides a vehicle through which scientists and analysts can share their own tools and analytical processes. This project illustrates one pathway to moving statistical research into operational inventory processes, and makes many model-assisted and small area estimators accessible to the FIA community. To demonstrate the process, continental United States (CONUS)-wide model-assisted and small area estimates are produced for ecosubsections, counties, and level 5 watersheds (HUC 10) and made publicly available through R Shiny dashboards. Target parameters include biomass, basal area, board foot volume, proportion of forest land, cubic foot volume, and live trees per acre. Estimators demonstrated here include: the simplest direct estimator (Horvitz–Thompson), model-assisted estimators (post-stratified, generalized regression estimator, and modified generalized regression estimators), and small area estimators (empirical best linear unbiased predictors and hierarchical Bayes both at the area- and unit-level). Auxiliary data considered in the model-assisted and small area estimators included maps of tree canopy, tree classification, and climatic variables. Estimates for small domain sets were generated nationally within a few hours. Exploring results across estimators and target variables revealed the progressive gains in precision using (in order of least gain to highest gain) Horvitz–Thompson, post-stratification, modified generalized regression estimators, generalized regression estimators, area-level small area models, and unit-level small area models. Substantive gains are realized by expanding model-assisted estimators beyond post-stratification, allowing FIA to continue to take advantage of design-based inference in many cases. Caution is warranted in the use of unit-level small area models due to model mis-specification. The dataset of estimates available through the dashboards provides the opportunity for others to compare estimators and explore precision expectations over specific domains and geographic regions. The dashboards also provide a forum for future development and analyses.

Like many other countries, the United Kingdom (UK) produces a national consumer price index (CPI) to measure inflation. Presently, CPI measures are not produced for regions within the UK. It is believed that, using only available data sources, a regional CPI would not be precise or reliable enough as an official statistic, primarily because the regional partitioning of the data makes sample sizes too small. We investigate this claim by producing experimental regional CPIs using publicly available price data, and deriving expenditure weights from the Living Costs and Food survey. We detail the methods and challenges of developing a regional CPI and evaluate its reliability. We then assess whether model-based methods such as smoothing and small area estimation significantly improve the measures. We find that a regional CPI can be produced with available data sources, however it appears to be excessively volatile over time, mainly due to the weights. Smoothing and small area estimation improve the reliability of the regional CPI series to some extent but they remain too volatile for regional policy use. This research provides a valuable framework for the development of a more viable regional CPI measure for the UK in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Certain subpopulations like female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) often have higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS and are difficult to map directly due to stigma, discrimination, and criminalization. Fine-scale mapping of those populations contributes to the progress toward reducing the inequalities and ending the AIDS epidemic. In 2016 and 2017, the PLACE surveys were conducted at 3290 venues in 20 out of the total 28 districts in Malawi to estimate the FSW sizes. These venues represent a presence-only dataset where, instead of knowing both where people live and do not live (presence–absence data), only information about visited locations is available. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model for presence-only data and utilize the PLACE data to estimate the FSW size and uncertainty interval at a 1.5 × 1.5 -km resolution for all of Malawi. The estimates can also be aggregated to any desirable level (city/district/region) for implementing targeted HIV prevention and treatment programs in FSW communities, which have been successful in lowering the incidence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major depression is a severe mental disorder that is associated with strongly increased mortality. The quantification of its prevalence on regional levels represents an important indicator for public health reporting. In addition to that, it marks a crucial basis for further explorative studies regarding environmental determinants of the condition. However, assessing the distribution of major depression in the population is challenging. The topic is highly sensitive, and national statistical institutions rarely have administrative records on this matter. Published prevalence figures as well as available auxiliary data are typically derived from survey estimates. These are often subject to high uncertainty due to large sampling variances and do not allow for sound regional analysis. We propose a new area-level Poisson mixed model that accounts for measurement errors in auxiliary data to close this gap. We derive the empirical best predictor under the model and present a parametric bootstrap estimator for the mean squared error. A method of moments algorithm for consistent model parameter estimation is developed. Simulation experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of the approach. The methodology is applied to estimate the major depression prevalence in Germany on regional levels crossed by sex and age groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Household Pulse Survey, recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau, gathers information about the respondents' experiences regarding employment status, food security, housing, physical and mental health, access to health care, and education disruption. Design-based estimates are produced for all 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC), as well as 15 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Using public-use microdata, this paper explores the effectiveness of using unit-level model-based estimators that incorporate spatial dependence for the Household Pulse Survey. In particular, we consider Bayesian hierarchical model-based spatial estimates for both a binomial and a multinomial response under informative sampling. Importantly, we demonstrate that these models can be easily estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo through the Stan software package. In doing so, these models can readily be implemented in a production environment. For both the binomial and multinomial responses, an empirical simulation study is conducted, which compares spatial and non-spatial models. Finally, using public-use Household Pulse Survey micro-data, we provide an analysis that compares both design-based and model-based estimators and demonstrates a reduction in standard errors for the model-based approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of prevalence on regional levels is an important element of public health reporting. Since regional prevalence is rarely collected in registers, corresponding figures are often estimated via small area estimation using suitable health data. However, such data are frequently subject to uncertainty as values have been estimated from surveys. In that case, the method for prevalence estimation must explicitly account for data uncertainty to allow for reliable results. This can be achieved via measurement error models that introduce distribution assumptions on the noisy data. However, these methods usually require target and explanatory variable errors to be independent. This does not hold when data for both have been estimated from the same survey, which is sometimes the case in official statistics. If not accounted for, prevalence estimates can be severely biased. We propose a new measurement error model for regional prevalence estimation that is suitable for settings where target and explanatory variable errors are dependent. We derive empirical best predictors and demonstrate mean-squared error estimation. A maximum likelihood approach for model parameter estimation is presented. Simulation experiments are conducted to prove the effectiveness of the method. An application to regional hypertension prevalence estimation in Germany is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a method originally proposed by R. A. Fisher into a general procedure, called tailoring, for deriving goodness-of-fit tests that are guaranteed to have a χ 2 asymptotic null distribution. The method has a robustness feature that it works correctly in testing a certain aspect of the model while some other aspect of the model may be misspecified. We apply the method to small area estimation. A connection, and difference, to the existing specification test is discussed. We evaluate performance of the tests both theoretically and empirically, and compare the performance with several existing methods. Our empirical results suggest that the proposed test is more accurate in size, and has either higher or similar power compared to the existing tests. The proposed test is also computationally less demanding than the specification test and other comparing methods. A real-data application is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose-: National screening estimates mask county-level variations. We aimed to generate county-level colorectal cancer (CRC) screening prevalence estimates for 2018 among adults aged 50-75 years and identify counties with low screening prevalence.Methods-: We combined individual-level county data from the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) (n = 204,947) with the 2018 American Community Survey county poverty data as a covariate, and the 2018 U.S. Census county population count data to generate county-level prevalence estimates for being current with any CRC screening test, colonoscopy, and home stool blood test. Because BRFSS is a state-based survey, and because some counties did not have samples for analysis, we used correlation coefficients to test internal consistency between model-based and BRFSS state estimates.Results-: Correlation coefficients tests were ≥0.97. Model-based national prevalence for any test was 69.9% (95% CI, 69.5% -70.4%) suggesting 30% are not current with screening test use. State mean estimates ranged from 62.1% in Alaska and Wyoming to 76.6% in Maine and Massachusetts. County mean estimates ranged from 42.2% in Alaska to 80.0% in Florida and Rhode Island. Most tests were performed with colonoscopy.Conclusions-: Estimates across all U.S. counties showed large variations. Estimates may be informative for planning by states and local screening programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative sociologists and social policymakers are increasingly interested in local context. Some city-specific studies have developed new primary data collection efforts to analyze inequality at the neighborhood level, but methods from spatial microsimulation have yet to be broadly used in sociology to take better advantage of existing public data sets. The American Community Survey (ACS) is the largest household survey in the United States and indispensable for detailed analysis of specific places and populations. The authors propose a technique, tree-based spatial microsimulation, to produce "small-area" (census-tract) estimates of any person- or household-level phenomenon that can be derived from ACS microdata variables. The approach is straightforward and computationally efficient, based only on publicly available data, and it provides more reliable estimates than do prevailing methods of microsimulation. The authors demonstrate the technique's capabilities by producing tract-level estimates, stratified by race/ethnicity, of (1) the proportion of people in the census-tract population who have children and work in an essential occupation and (2) the proportion of people in the census-tract population living below the federal poverty threshold and in a household that spends greater than 50 percent of monthly income on rent or owner costs. These examples are relevant to understanding the sociospatial inequalities dramatized by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The authors discuss potential extensions of the technique to derive small-area estimates of variables observed in surveys other than the ACS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural divides and prejudice complicate the processes of integration and acculturation of migrant families living in a foreign country. Evaluating the impact of such phenomenon can be crucial for social stability and policy making. In this context, the education system has a leading role in fostering and attaining social integration, in particular when it comes to younger sections of the migrant population. In this work, we propose a method for the construction of a quantitative indicator capturing social integration of second generation students in the Italian school system according to areas defined by nationality of the students and administrative region in which they attend school. The indicator, based on survey data, is estimated by means of a 2-step methodology. In the first step, we choose an individual qualitative variable capturing social integration at the unit level, and we compute a first direct estimate of the indicator as the proportion of highly integrated students in each area. Such variable is isolated following alternatively a proxy variable approach or a latent variable model approach. In the second step, we make use of two alternative small area models to improve the estimates, dealing with missing values, low sample size and high variability in smaller domains. At the end, the 2-step methodology results in 4 alternative versions of a synthetic indicator of social integration, that can be used to rank nationalities and administrative regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing regional population compositions is an important task in many research fields. Small area estimation with generalized linear mixed models marks a powerful tool for this purpose. However, the method has limitations in practice. When the data are subject to measurement errors, small area models produce inefficient or biased results since they cannot account for data uncertainty. This is particularly problematic for composition prediction, since generalized linear mixed models often rely on approximate likelihood inference. Obtained predictions are not reliable. We propose a robust multivariate Fay–Herriot model to solve these issues. It combines compositional data analysis with robust optimization theory. The nonlinear estimation of compositions is restated as a linear problem through isometric logratio transformations. Robust model parameter estimation is performed via penalized maximum likelihood. A robust best predictor is derived. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. An application to alcohol consumption in Germany is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Populations affected by crises (armed conflict, food insecurity, natural disasters) are poorly covered by demographic surveillance. As such, crisis-wide estimation of population mortality is extremely challenging, resulting in a lack of evidence to inform humanitarian response and conflict resolution. Methods: We describe here a 'small-area estimation' method to circumvent these data gaps and quantify both total and excess (i.e. crisis-attributable) death rates and tolls, both overall and for granular geographic (e.g. district) and time (e.g. month) strata. The method is based on analysis of data previously collected by national and humanitarian actors, including ground survey observations of mortality, displacement-adjusted population denominators and datasets of variables that may predict the death rate. We describe the six sequential steps required for the method's implementation and illustrate its recent application in Somalia, South Sudan and northeast Nigeria, based on a generic set of analysis scripts. Results: Descriptive analysis of ground survey data reveals informative patterns, e.g. concerning the contribution of injuries to overall mortality, or household net migration. Despite some data sparsity, for each crisis that we have applied the method to thus far, available predictor data allow the specification of reasonably predictive mixed effects models of crude and under 5 years death rate, validated using cross-validation. Assumptions about values of the predictors in the absence of a crisis provide counterfactual and excess mortality estimates. Conclusions: The method enables retrospective estimation of crisis-attributable mortality with considerable geographic and period stratification, and can therefore contribute to better understanding and historical memorialisation of the public health effects of crises. We discuss key limitations and areas for further development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under a unit-level bivariate linear mixed model, this paper introduces small area predictors of expenditure means and ratios, and derives approximations and estimators of the corresponding mean squared errors. For the considered model, the REML estimation method is implemented. Several simulation experiments, designed to analyze the behavior of the introduced fitting algorithm, predictors and mean squared error estimators, are carried out. An application to real data from the Spanish household budget survey illustrates the behavior of the proposed statistical methodology. The target is the estimation of means of food and non-food household annual expenditures and of ratios of food household expenditures by Spanish provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to present an original approach to estimate the gender pay gap (GPG). We propose a model‐based decomposition, similar to the most popular approaches, where the first component measures differences in group characteristics and the second component measures the unexplained effect; the latter being the real gap. The novel approach incorporates model selection and bias correction. The pay gap problem in a small area context is considered in this paper, although the approach is flexible to be applied to other contexts. Specifically, the methodology is validated for analysing wage differentials by economic activities in the region of Galicia (Spain) and by analysing simulated data from an experimental design that imitates the generation of real data. The good performance of the proposed estimators is shown in both cases, specifically when compared with those obtained from the widely used Oaxaca–Blinder approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, statisticians have developed methods to improve generalizations from nonrandom samples using propensity score methods. While these methods contribute to generalization research, their effectiveness is limited by small sample sizes. Small area estimation is a class of model-based methods that address the imprecision due to small samples and prior research has shown its potential to improve precision in generalization studies with small samples. However, the validity of both small area methods and existing design-based methods depend on the assumptions of propensity score models, leaving open the question of whether a specific method is preferred when core assumptions are violated. This study compares the performance of design-based and model-based estimators of population parameters in generalization studies when the assumptions for propensity score models are violated. Using a simulation study and an empirical example, we assess the sensitivity of the estimators under various degrees of violations in assumptions, discuss the advantages and tradeoffs of each approach, and highlight the implications for generalization research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract Background Linking facility and household surveys through geographic methods is a popular technique to draw conclusions about the relationship between health services and population health outcomes at local levels. These methods are useful tools for measuring effective coverage and tracking progress towards Universal Health Coverage, but are understudied. This paper compares the appropriateness of several geospatial methods used for linking individuals (within displaced survey cluster locations) to their source of family planning (at undisplaced health facilities) at a national level. Methods In Malawi, geographic methods linked a population health survey, rural clusters from the Woman’s Questionnaire of the 2015 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS 2015), to Malawi’s national health facility census to understand the service environment where women receive family planning services. Individuals from MDHS 2015 clusters were linked to health facilities through four geographic methods: (i) closest facility, (ii) buffer (5 km), (iii) administrative boundary, and (iv) a newly described theoretical catchment area method. Results were compared across metrics to assess the number of unlinked clusters (data lost), the number of linkages per cluster (precision of linkage), and the number of women linked to their last source of modern contraceptive (appropriateness of linkage). Results The closest facility and administrative boundary methods linked every cluster to at least one facility, while the 5-km buffer method left 288 clusters (35.3%) unlinked. The theoretical catchment area method linked all but one cluster to at least one facility (99.9% linked). Closest facility, 5-km buffer, administrative boundary, and catchment methods linked clusters to 1.0, 1.4, 21.1, and 3.3 facilities on average, respectively. Overall, the closest facility, 5-km buffer, administrative boundary, and catchment methods appropriately linked 64.8%, 51.9%, 97.5%, and 88.9% of women to their last source of modern contraceptive, respectively. Conclusions Of the methods studied, the theoretical catchment area linking method loses a marginal amount of population data, links clusters to a relatively low number of facilities, and maintains a high level of appropriate linkages. This linking method is demonstrated at scale and can be used to link individuals to qualities of their service environments and better understand the pathways through which interventions impact health.

The management of the labor force is a strategic issue that requires strategic decision-making, strategic environmental analysis, which is clear that having statistics and information is a prerequisite for this. According to the current economic conditions of the country, it is necessary to audit the situation of the labor force not only in the national and provincial levels, but also at the city. However, at present, the official statistics of the Iranian labor force are only optimal at the national and provincial levels and are not reliable at the level of small areas. This article tries to estimate the unemployment rate of the provinces and cities of the country as small areas to enable the analysis of the gap and consequently audit and strategic planning for the situation of Iran's labor for. In this article, results of the labor force survey, which has been done by the Statistics Center of Iran in 1397, have been used. It is worth noting that in sampling surveys in which sample units are weighted, estimations by conventional modeling methods without considering the weights, leads to bias estimates. Therefore, in this study, weighted Bayesian methods have been used to estimate the unemployment rate of small areas.

Abstract Background Geospatial approaches are increasingly used to produce fine spatial scale estimates of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health (RMNCH) indicators in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aims to describe important methodological aspects and specificities of geospatial approaches applied to RMNCH coverage and impact outcomes and enable non-specialist readers to critically evaluate and interpret these studies. Methods Two independent searches were carried out using Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, SCIELO and LILACS electronic databases. Studies based on survey data using geospatial approaches on RMNCH in LMICs were considered eligible. Studies whose outcomes were not measures of occurrence were excluded. Results We identified 82 studies focused on over 30 different RMNCH outcomes. Bayesian hierarchical models were the predominant modeling approach found in 62 studies. 5 × 5 km estimates were the most common resolution and the main source of information was Demographic and Health Surveys. Model validation was under reported, with the out-of-sample method being reported in only 56% of the studies and 13% of the studies did not present a single validation metric. Uncertainty assessment and reporting lacked standardization, and more than a quarter of the studies failed to report any uncertainty measure. Conclusions The field of geospatial estimation focused on RMNCH outcomes is clearly expanding. However, despite the adoption of a standardized conceptual modeling framework for generating finer spatial scale estimates, methodological aspects such as model validation and uncertainty demand further attention as they are both essential in assisting the reader to evaluate the estimates that are being presented.

Abstract Background Brazil conducts many health surveys to provide estimates by national level, macro-regions, states, metropolitan regions and capitals. However, estimates for smaller areas are lacking due to their high cost. The Health Vulnerability Index (in Portuguese, Índice de Vulnerabilidade em Saúde, IVS) is a measure that combines socioeconomic and environmental variables in the same indicator and allows for the analysis of the characteristics of population groups residing in census tracts, grouping them into four health risk areas (low, medium, high and very high risk) in addition to showing inequalities in the epidemiological profile of different social groups. This index was developed by the Municipal Health Secretariat of Belo Horizonte to guide health planning. Objective The aim of the study is to produce a methodology for obtaining reliable estimates for tobacco smoking in small areas for which the IVS was not designed. Methods The Vigitel dataset from 2006 to 2013 was used to obtain estimates of the prevalence of smokers based on the IVS employing small area estimation methods that use data from a larger domain to obtain estimates in smaller areas. For indirect estimates, the covariates included were sanitation, housing, education, income, and social and health factors. Post-stratification weights were used according to the IVS based on the population of the 2010 census. Results From 2006 to 2009, 16.2% (95% CI: 13.6–14.8%) of the adult population in Belo Horizonte were smokers, and 14.8% (95% CI: 14.0–15.6%) were smokers between 2010 and 2013. The very high-risk population maintained a high prevalence over the same period of 21.1% (95% CI: 17.1–25.0%) between 2006 and 2009 and 20.8% (95% CI: 17.0–24.6%) between 2010 and 2013, while in the low-risk group, the prevalence in the same period fell from 14.9% (95% CI: 13.7–16.2%) to 11.8% (95% CI, 10.6–13.1%). Conclusions The present study identified differences in the profile of smokers by the IVS in the city of Belo Horizonte. While the smoking prevalence declined in richer areas, it remained high in poor areas. This methodology can be used to produce reliable estimates for subgroups with greater vulnerability in small areas and thus subsidize the formulation, monitoring and evaluation of public health policies and programmes aimed at smoking.

Regular health surveys can produce reliable estimates at higher geographic levels but not for small areas. Alternatives are to aggregate data over several years or use model-based methods. We created and evaluated model-based estimates for four health-related outcomes by gender, for 153 Local Government Areas using data from the New South Wales Population Health Survey. The evaluation examined evidence on bias and determined the covariates available and appropriate for each outcome variable. The evaluation considered the likely precision of the resulting estimates. The bias and precision of results for single years (2006–2008) for each outcome variable using six covariate specifications were compared with direct survey estimates based on a single year’s data and those obtained by aggregating over seven years. A practical issue is how to choose covariates to include in the models as the best covariate specification varies between outcome variables. Model-based results had median root mean squared errors between 3.3% and 5.5% (max 5.2% and 11.3% respectively) and median relative root mean squared errors between 6.8% and 24.5% (max 11.7% and 41.5% respectively). The model-based estimates were unbiased compared with direct estimates based on one or seven years of data and when aggregated to a point where direct estimates were reliable. The bias and reliability assessment process provides a way for policymakers to have confidence in model-based estimates.

Abstract Background There are likely to be differences in alcohol consumption levels and patterns across local areas within a country, yet survey data is often collected at the national or sub-national/regional level and is not representative for small geographic areas. Methods This paper presents a method for reweighting national survey data—the Health Survey for England—by combining survey and routine data to produce simulated locally representative survey data and provide statistics of alcohol consumption for each Local Authority in England. Results We find a 2-fold difference in estimated mean alcohol consumption between the lightest and heaviest drinking Local Authorities, a 4.5-fold difference in abstention rates, and a 3.5-fold difference in harmful drinking. The method compares well to direct estimates from the data at regional level. Conclusions The results have important policy implications in itself, but the reweighted data can also be used to model local policy effects. This method can also be used for other public health small area estimation where locally representative data are not available.

Small area estimation is a growing area of research for making inferences over geographic, demographic, or temporal domains smaller than those in which a particular survey data set was originally intended to be used. We aimed to review a body of literature to summarize the breadth and depth of small area estimation and related estimation strategies in forest inventory and management to-date, as well as the current state of terminology, methods, concerns, data sources, research findings, challenges, and opportunities for future work relevant to forestry and forest inventory research. Estimation methodologies explored include direct, indirect, and composite estimation within design-based and model-based inference bases. A variety of estimation methods in forestry have been applied to extensive multi-resource inventory systems like national forest inventories to increase the precision of estimates on small domains or subsets of the overall populations of interest. To avoid instability and large variances associated with small sample sizes when working with small area domains, forest inventory data are often supplemented with information from auxiliary sources, especially from remote sensing platforms and other geospatial, map-based products. Results from many studies show gains in precision compared to direct estimates based only on field inventory data. Gains in precision have been demonstrated in both project-level applications and national forest inventory systems. Potential gains are possible over varying geographic and temporal scales, with the degree of success in reducing variance also dependent on the types of auxiliary information, scale, strength of model relationships, and methodological alternatives, leaving considerable opportunity for future research and growth in small area applications for forest inventory.