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Recent studies highlight that oceanic motions associated with horizontal scales smaller than 50 km, defined here as submesoscales, lead to anomalous vertical heat fluxes from colder to warmer waters. This unique transport property is not captured in climate models that have insufficient resolution to simulate these submesoscale dynamics. Here, we use an ocean model with an unprecedented resolution that, for the first time, globally resolves submesoscale heat transport. Upper-ocean submesoscale turbulence produces a systematicallyupward heat transport that is five times larger than mesoscale heat transport, with wintertime averages up to 100 W/m² for mid-latitudes. Compared to a lower-resolution model, submesoscale heat transport warms the sea surface up to 0.3 °C and produces an upward annual-mean air–sea heat flux anomaly of 4–10 W/m² at mid-latitudes. These results indicate that submesoscale dynamics are critical to the transport of heat between the ocean interior and the atmosphere, and are thus a key component of the Earth’s climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the Southern Ocean has experienced unprecedented surface warming and sea ice loss-a stark reversal of the sea ice expansion and surface cooling that prevailed over the preceding decades. Here, we examine the mechanisms that led to the abrupt circumpolar surface warming events that occurred in late 2016 and 2019 and assess the role of internal climate variability. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that these recent circumpolar surface warming events were triggered by a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which decreased northward Ekman transport and accelerated the seasonal shoaling of the mixed layer. We emphasize the underappreciated effect of the latter mechanism, which played a dominant role and amplified the warming effect of air-sea heat fluxes during months of peak solar insolation. An examination of the CESM1 large ensemble demonstrates that these recent circumpolar warming events are consistent with the internal variability associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whereby negative SAM in austral spring favors shallower mixed layers and anomalously high summertime SST. A key insight from this analysis is that the seasonal phasing of springtime mixed layer depth shoaling is an important contributor to summertime SST variability in the Southern Ocean. Thus, future Southern Ocean summertime SST extremes will depend on the coevolution of mixed layer depth and surface wind variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet represents a major uncertainty in projecting future rates of global sea level rise. Much of this uncertainty is related to a lack of knowledge about subsurface ocean hydrographic properties, particularly heat content, how these properties are modified across the continental shelf, and about the extent to which the ocean interacts with glaciers. Early results from NASA's five-year Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission, based on extensive hydrographic and bathymetric surveys, suggest that many glaciers terminate in deep water and are hence vulnerable to increased melting due to ocean-ice interaction. OMG will track ocean conditions and ice loss at glaciers around Greenland through the year 2020, providing critical information about ocean-driven Greenland ice mass loss in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermobaric convection (type II convection) and thermobaric cabbeling (type III convection) might substantially contribute to vertical mixing, vertical heat transport, and deep-water formation in the World Ocean. However, the extent of this contribution remains poorly constrained. The concept of ocean convective available potential energy (OCAPE), the thermobaric energy source for type II and type III convection, is introduced to improve the diagnosis and prediction of these convection events. OCAPE is analogous to atmospheric CAPE, which is a key energy source for atmospheric moist convection and has long been used to forecast moist convection. OCAPE is the potential energy (PE) stored in an ocean column arising from thermobaricity, defined as the difference between the PE of the ocean column and its minimum possible PE under adiabatic vertical parcel rearrangements. An ocean column may be stably stratified and still have nonzero OCAPE. The authors present an efficient strategy for computing OCAPE accurately for any given column of seawater. They further derive analytical expressions for OCAPE for approximately two-layer ocean columns that are widely observed in polar oceans. This elucidates the dependence of OCAPE on key physical parameters. Hydrographic profiles from the winter Weddell Sea are shown to contain OCAPE (0.001-0.01 J kg−1), and scaling analysis suggests that OCAPE may be substantially enhanced by wintertime surface buoyancy loss. The release of this OCAPE may substantially contribute to the kinetic energy of deep convection in polar oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energetics of thermobaricity- and cabbeling-powered deep convection occurring in oceans with cold freshwater overlying warm salty water are investigated here. These quasi-two-layer profiles are widely observed in wintertime polar oceans. The key diagnostic is the ocean convective available potential energy (OCAPE), a concept introduced in a companion piece to this paper (Part I). For an isolated ocean column, OCAPE arises from thermobaricity and is the maximum potential energy (PE) that can be converted into kinetic energy (KE) under adiabatic vertical parcel rearrangements. This study explores the KE budget of convection using two-dimensional numerical simulations and analytical estimates. The authors find that OCAPE is a principal source for KE. However, the complete conversion of OCAPE to KE is inhibited by diabatic processes. Further, this study finds that diabatic processes produce three other distinct contributions to the KE budget: (i) a sink of KE due to the reduction of stratification by vertical mixing, which raises water column's center of mass and thus acts to convert KE to PE; (ii) a source of KE due to cabbeling-induced shrinking of the water column's volume when water masses with different temperatures are mixed, which lowers the water column's center of mass and thus acts to convert PE into KE; and (iii) a reduced production of KE due to diabatic energy conversion of the KE convertible part of the PE to the KE inconvertible part of the PE. Under some simplifying assumptions, the authors also propose a theory to estimate the maximum depth of convection from an energetic perspective. This study provides a potential basis for improving the convection parameterization in ocean models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meltwater content and pathways determine the impact of Antarctica's melting ice shelves on ocean circulation and climate. Using ocean glider observations, we quantify meltwater distribution and transport within the Bellingshausen Sea's Belgica Trough. Meltwater is present at different densities and with different turbidities: both are indicative of a layer's ice shelf of origin. To investigate how ice‐shelf origin separates meltwater into different export pathways, we compare these observations with high‐resolution tracer‐release model simulations. Meltwater filaments branch off the Antarctic Coastal Current into the southwestern trough. Meltwater also enters the Belgica Trough in the northwest via an extended western pathway, hence the greater observed southward (0.50 mSv) than northward (0.17 mSv) meltwater transport. Together, the observations and simulations reveal meltwater retention within a cyclonic in‐trough gyre, which has the potential to promote climactically important feedbacks on circulation and future melting. Plain Language Summary: Recent research has advanced our understanding of interactions between warm ocean waters and the underside of Antarctica's floating ice shelves. But what happens to meltwater that these ice shelves release? Meltwater is fresh: it reduces the salinity of sea water and upsets the delicate balance between salty and fresh water that drives many polar ocean processes ‐ for example, the sinking of cold, salty water to the deepest regions of the ocean, which is of global climatic importance. We use high‐resolution observations and state‐of‐the‐art model simulations to determine the pathways that meltwater takes as it flows in and around the Belgica Trough in the central Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica. Meltwater is principally confined to the edges of the trough's clockwise gyre circulation. Meltwater from eastern ice shelves is generally found at shallower depths than meltwater from southern ice shelves; this explains evidence of two meltwater layers found in our observations. In addition, meltwater from eastern ice shelves is turbid, while meltwater from southern ice shelves is clear. These results will help us to better predict how Antarctica's coastal seas will respond to a warming climate as ever more meltwater is released into the ocean. Key Points: Meltwater pathways in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, are explored using observations from gliders and a high‐resolution regional modelMeltwater observed at different densities originates from different ice shelves: lighter meltwater layers originate from eastern ice shelvesMeltwater from different ice shelves is distinguished by different turbidity signatures, suggestive of different biogeochemical properties [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability in oceanic conditions directly impacts ice loss from marine outlet glaciers in Greenland, influencing the ice sheet mass balance. Oceanic conditions are available from Atmosphere‐Ocean Global Climate Model (AOGCM) output, but these models require extensive computational resources and lack the fine resolution needed to simulate ocean dynamics on the Greenland continental shelf and close to glacier marine termini. Here, we develop a statistical approach to generate ocean forcing for ice sheet model simulations, which incorporates natural spatiotemporal variability and anthropogenic changes. Starting from raw AOGCM ocean heat content, we apply: (a) a bias‐correction using ocean reanalysis, (b) an extrapolation accounting for on‐shelf ocean dynamics, and (c) stochastic time series models to generate realizations of natural variability. The bias‐correction reduces model errors by ∼25% when compared to independent in‐situ measurements. The bias‐corrected time series are subsequently extrapolated to fjord mouth locations using relations constrained from available high‐resolution regional ocean model results. The stochastic time series models reproduce the spatial correlation, characteristic timescales, and the amplitude of natural variability of bias‐corrected AOGCMs, but at negligible computational expense. We demonstrate the efficiency of this method by generating >6,000 time series of ocean forcing for >200 Greenland marine‐terminating glacier locations until 2100. As our method is computationally efficient and adaptable to any ocean model output and reanalysis product, it provides flexibility in exploring sensitivity to ocean conditions in Greenland ice sheet model simulations. We provide the output and workflow in an open‐source repository, and discuss advantages and future developments for our method. Plain Language Summary: Model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) require knowledge of ocean conditions. The evolution of ocean conditions has a strong impact on ice sheet model predictions, as there are more than 200 glaciers in Greenland flowing directly into the ocean. However, modeling oceanic forcing is difficult. The state‐of‐the‐art approach is to use output from Atmosphere‐Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs). But these models cannot accurately capture the ocean dynamics on the Greenland shelf, and they can show strong biases compared to observations. Furthermore, AOGCMs are computationally expensive, meaning that it is impossible to thoroughly characterize the uncertainty associated with the chaotic nature of climate. Here, we propose a procedure to bias‐correct and extrapolate oceanic output from AOGCMs. Our method exploits observational datasets, as well as available high‐resolution ocean model results. Using statistical models, we reproduce patterns of spatiotemporal ocean variability at low computational expense, and represent internal climate variability and global warming trends. The goal is to provide a scalable procedure to generate ocean forcing for long‐term GrIS model predictions. Key Points: We develop a statistical method to generate ocean forcing boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet model simulationsThe method bias‐corrects and extrapolates global climate model output using reanalysis products and high‐resolution model resultsStochastic time series models reproduce the spatiotemporal variability of ocean conditions at negligible computational expense [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State‐of‐the‐art climate models simulate a large spread in the mean‐state Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), with strengths varying between 12 and 25 Sv. Here, we introduce a framework for understanding this spread by assessing the balance between the thermal‐wind expression and surface water mass transformation in the North Atlantic. The intermodel spread in the mean‐state AMOC strength is shown to be related to the overturning scale depth: climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have a stronger AMOC. We present a physically motivated scaling relationship that links intermodel variations in the scale depth to surface buoyancy fluxes and stratification in the North Atlantic, and thus connects North Atlantic surface processes to the interior overturning circulation. Climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have stronger surface buoyancy loss and weaker stratification in the North Atlantic. These results offer a framework for reducing mean‐state AMOC biases in climate models. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation—a branch of ocean currents confined to the Atlantic basin—strongly influences regional climate by redistributing heat, freshwater and carbon throughout the ocean. Understanding the processes that control the strength of this circulation feature, particularly in state‐of‐the‐art climate models, remains an active area of research. In this study, we introduce a conceptual framework to understand the processes that contribute to a large spread in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation across climate models. We find climate models that exhibit a stronger circulation also have a deeper circulation. We introduce another expression to show that climate models with a deeper circulation also have stronger surface buoyancy loss and weaker stratification in the North Atlantic, which allows for more formation of dense waters that supply the southward flowing component of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results provide a framework for reducing biases in simulating the present‐day Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in climate models. Key Points: The thermal‐wind expression captures the intermodel spread in mean‐state AMOC strength across climate modelsIntermodel variations in the AMOC strength are related to intermodel variations in the overturning scale depthModels with a stronger AMOC have a larger scale depth, and stronger surface buoyancy loss and weaker stratification in the North Atlantic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]