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The application of agrochemicals in Southeast Asia is increasing in rate, variety and toxicity with alarming speed. Understanding the behavior of these different contaminants within the environment require comprehensive monitoring programs as well as accurate simulations with hydrological models. We used the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the fate of three different pesticides, one of each usage type (herbicide, fungicide and insecticide) in a mountainous catchment in Northern Thailand. Three key parameters were identified: the sorption coefficient, the decay coefficient and the coefficient controlling pesticide percolation. We yielded satisfactory results simulating pesticide load dynamics during the calibration period (NSE: 0.92–0.67); the results during the validation period were also acceptable (NSE: 0.61–0.28). The results of this study are an important step in understanding the modeling behavior of these pesticides in SWAT and will help to identify thresholds of worst-case scenarios in order to assess the risk for the environment.

The increasing application of pesticides in the uplands of northern Thailand has increased the transfer of pesticides to surface water. To assess the risk of pesticide use for stream water quality, we monitored the concentrations of seven pesticides (atrazine, dichlorvos, chlorpyrifos, dimethoate, chlorothalonil, (α-, β-) endosulfan, cypermethrin) frequently used in the Mae Sa watershed (77 km2) in water and sediment samples over a period of one and a half years (2007–2008). All investigated pesticides were recorded in the river. Chlorpyrifos was detected most often in water samples (75 % at the headwater station), while cypermethrin was most often found in riverbed (86 %) and in all suspended sediment samples. The highest concentrations of the pesticides were detected during the rainy season. About 0.002 to 4.1 % by mass of the applied pesticides was lost to surface water. The risk assessment was based on the risk characterization ratio (RCR). The RCRs of dichlorvos in water, (α-, β-) endosulfan, and cypermethrin in water and sediments were higher than unity indicating that they are likely to pose a threat to aquatic ecosystem. Finally, we discuss the role of sampling design on ecotoxicological risk assessment. Our study shows that pesticide contamination of surface waters is an environmental issue in the Mae Sa watershed and that measures need to be undertaken to reduce the loss of pesticides from soil to surface waters.

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking. Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

The topsoil water content (SWC) plays a key role in partitioning energy and water fluxes at the land surface. Knowledge about its spatial and temporal variability is crucial for improving climate and hydrology modeling. We investigated SWC variability, its relation to the mean spatial soil water content (〈θ〉), and the variability of rainfall on the regional spatial and event temporal scales. We used a 3-yr data set, obtained at 15-min resolution from two soil moisture sensor networks (spatial extent: 25 by 25 km), set up at croplands in the Kraichgau and Swabian Alb regions in southwest Germany. The relationship of SWC standard deviation (σ θ ) versus 〈θ〉 was studied (σ θ –〈θ〉). The closer σ θ is located to the edge of the envelope, the σ θ at the permanent wilting point (σ θ –〈θ wp 〉), and the σ θ at saturation (σ θ –〈θ s 〉)—the anchor points—the easier it is to apprehend whether σ θ will increase or decrease on a change in 〈θ〉. The σ θ –〈θ〉 relationship forms combinations of concave and convex hyperbolas reflecting the variability of soil texture and depending on σ θ in relation to the anchor points. Most σ θ –〈θ〉 clockwise hysteresis cases occurred in an intermediate and intermediate-wet state of SWC. The initiation of a clockwise hysteretic loop is initiated by preferential flow. The σ θ phase space can be used to test whether hydrological or land surface models capture a realistic range of soil water heterogeneity.

This study was conducted to reconcile an apparent inconsistency between the simazine laboratory sorption isotherm data and the field lysimeter transport experiment reported by Poletika et al. (this issue). In this investigation, linear and nonlinear one- and two-stage simazine sorption models were fitted to the sorption and desorption isotherm laboratory data to obtain parameter estimates for use in the transport model. Once obtained, the calibrated sorption model was combined with the parameterized outflow concentration record from a mobile Br tracer to represent rate-limited sorption and transport of the simazine added simultaneously with the Br. The calibrated model did an excellent job of representing the final simazine profile in the soil, particularly with the nonlinear model. This is in contrast to a single-stage adsorption model tested by Poletika et al. (this issue), which reached poor agreement with the field profile when laboratory-measured sorption parameters were used. The results demonstrate the compatibility of field and laboratory experiments on pesticide movement and also indicate that sorption isotherms may require substantially longer to reach equilibrium than is customarily allowed in current protocols.

In Vietnam, paddy rice fields have been identified as a major non-point source of pesticide pollution of surface- and groundwater which is often directly used for domestic purposes. One strategy to assess the risk of pesticide pollution is to use process-based models. Here, we present a new model developed for simulating short-term pesticide dynamics in combined paddy rice field-fish pond farming systems. The model was calibrated using the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm and validated against measured pesticide concentrations of a paddy field-fish pond system typical for northern Vietnam.In the calibration period, model efficiencies were 0.82 for dimethoate and 0.87 for fenitrothion. In the validation period, modelling efficiencies slightly decreased to 0.42 and 0.76 for dimethoate and fenitrothion, respectively. Scenario simulations revealed that a field closure period of 1 day after pesticide application considerably reduces the risk of pond and surface water pollution.These results indicate that the proposed model is an effective tool to assess and evaluate management strategies, such as extended field closure periods, aiming to reduce the loss of pesticides from paddy fields.

This study was performed to identify the transport pathways of pesticides from a sloped litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) orchard to a nearby stream based on a three-component hydrograph separation (baseflow, interflow, surface runoff). Dissolved silica and electrical conductivity were chosen as representative tracers. During the study period (30 d), 0.4 and 0.01% of the applied mass of atrazine and chlorpyrifos, respectively, were detected in the stream after 151 mm of rainfall. Baseflow (80–96%) was the dominant hydrological flow component, followed by interflow (3–18%) and surface runoff (1–7%). Despite its small contribution to total discharge, surface runoff was the dominant atrazine transport pathway during the first days after application because pesticide concentrations in the surface runoff flow component declined quickly within several days. Preferential transport with interflow became the dominant pathway of atrazine. Because chlorpyrifos was detected in the stream water only twice, it was not included in the hydrograph separation. A feature of the surface runoff pathway was the coincidence of pesticide and discharge peaks. In contrast, peak concentrations of pesticides transported by interflow occurred during the hydrograph recession phases. Stormflow generation and pesticide transport depended on antecedent rainfall. The combination of high-resolution pesticide concentration measurements with a three-component hydrograph separation has been shown to be a suitable method to identify pesticide transport pathways under tropical conditions.

During the last decades, high population growth and export-oriented economics in Vietnam have led to a tremendous intensification of rice production, which in turn has significantly increased the amount of pesticides applied in rice cropping systems. Since pesticides are toxic by design, there is a natural concern on the impact of their presence in the environment on human health and environmental quality. The present study was designed to examine the water regime and fate of pesticides (fenitrothion, dimethoate) during two consecutive rice crop seasons in combined paddy rice-fish pond farming systems in northern Vietnam. Major results revealed that 5 and 41% (dimethoate), and 1 and 17% (fenitrothion) of the applied mass of pesticides were lost from the paddy field to the adjacent fish pond during spring and summer crop seasons, respectively. The decrease of pesticide concentration in paddy surface water was very rapid with dissipation half-life values of 0.3 to 0.8 and 0.2 d for dimethoate and fenitrothion, respectively. Key factors controlling the transport of pesticides were water solubility and paddy water management parameters, such as hydraulic residence time and water holding period. Risk assessment indicates that the exposure to toxic levels of pesticides for aquaculture (, ) is significant, at least shortly after pesticide application.

Degradation of volatile organic chemicals during transport has received little attention in the past. In this study we report the results of a series of experiments on toluene movement through soil columns of different length in sterilized, pre-exposed and unexposed soil. Toluene was added to 25-cm-diameter soil columns through an inlet chamber that maintained a constant concentration throughout the experiment. The toluene diffused through the soil to an outlet chamber at the top which was continuously swept with humidified air and samples were periodically analysed to determine toluene flux. The first experiment, conducted under sterilized conditions, was used to measure the soil gas diffusion coefficient, and subsequent experiments in which biodegradation occurred were used to estimate the degradation rate coefficient by fitting the outflow to a mathematical model. The degradation rate was very rapid under both pre-exposed and unexposed soil conditions, corresponding to a half-life of ∼ 2 h when bacterial activity reached high levels. Prior to this stage, the volatilization flux was very erratic, implying that growth rates of the bacteria were out of phase with the transport process. Overall, the degradation process was not well described by a first-order model until the population stabilized. Pre-exposure of the soil to the substrate prior to the transport experiment greatly increased the rate of removal of toluene during transport. Under such conditions, a 30-cm cover could virtually stop volatization losses of the compound when the inlet concentration was well below saturation, and could decrease it by a factor of ⩾30 even when the inlet concentration was saturated.

Nonequilibrium sorption plays an active role in the transport of organic contaminants in soil. We applied a two-stage, one-rate model (2S1R) and a new, nonlinear variant (2S1RN) of this model to examine the effects of wastewater irrigation on the sorption kinetics of atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1,3,5-triazine) in soil. The models were applied to previously published sorption-desorption data sets, which showed pronounced deviations between sorption curves and desorption curves (sorption-desorption hysteresis). Moreover, the slopes of the desorption curves decreased with decreasing concentration. Different treatments had been used, and two experimental time steps (2 and 14 d) were used. Treatments considered were lipid removal, fulvic and humic acid removal, and untreated soil. The 2S1R model was unable to reproduce the observed type of hysteresis, but the 2S1RN model, which assumes that the sorption-desorption process follows a power function relationship, was able to reproduce the observed type of hysteresis. Visually, applying the new model improved the model fits in all test cases. Statistically, as tested by an extra sum of squares analysis, the new model performed significantly better in 50% of all test cases. According to an example simulation, the choice of the sorption model has a considerable impact on the prediction of atrazine transport in soil.

Antibiotics, such as sulfadiazine (SDZ), may enter arable soil by spreading of manure of medicated husbandry or directly by the excrement of grazing animals. Knowledge of the fate of antibiotics in soils is crucial for assessing the environmental risk of these compounds, including possible transport to ground water. Kinetic sorption of (14)C-labeled SDZ (4-amino-N-pyrimidin-2-yl-benzenesulfonamide) was investigated using the batch technique. The batch sorption-desorption experiments were conducted at various concentration levels (0.044-13 mg L(-1) initial solute concentration) and time scales (0.75-272 d). Sorption of (14)C-SDZ in the investigated silty loam was time dependent and strongly nonlinear in the solution phase concentration. The time to reach an apparent sorption equilibrium was about 20 d. However, desorption was very slow, and 41 d were insufficient to reach the desorption equilibrium. An inverse modeling technique was used to identify relevant sorption processes of (14)C-SDZ during the batch experiments. Among the investigated two- and three-domain sorption models, adsorption and desorption of (14)C-SDZ were best described with a new model defining two sorption domains and four parameters. Whereas sorption in the first sorption domain was nonlinear and instantaneous, solute uptake in the second sorption domain was rate limited following first-order kinetics. Desorption followed the same rate law until an equilibrium distribution was reached. After that, desorption was assumed to be impossible due to partly irreversible sorption. Although the proposed model needs further validation, it contributes to the discussion on complex sorption processes of organic chemicals in soils.

“Pesticides spread their toxic reach,” and “the source of life is poisoned”. These were headlines of the daily Bangkok Post in 1997 and 2001. When the agriculture of Thailand shifted from subsistence farming to the production of cash crops about three decades ago, the farmers in the mountainous area of northern Thailand also rapidly increased their use of pesticides. Farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the downstream flow of water claim that there is too much poison in the rivers. Considerable concentrations of pesticide residues have also been detected in soils, food and breast milk (Baun et al., 1998; Thapinta and Hudak, 2000; Stuetzet al., 2001). Moreover, it was reported that local lychee farmers are poisoned by organochlorine pesticides, indicating careless handling of these substances (Stuetz et al., 2001). Careless use of pesticides may also cause a direct input of pesticides into surface waters. Atmospheric deposition of volatilized pesticides, soil surface runoff and leaching through the soil are further potential pathways through which surface water may be contaminated. However, we are not aware of any studies of the flow pathways of water and contaminants in Thai soils. Thus, the overall aim of our study was to quantify the leaching of pesticides through a soil in a lychee orchard in order to evaluate the contribution of this pathway to the total river water contamination.

During recent decades, a change in land use in the mountainous regions of Northern Thailand has been accompanied by an increased input of agrochemicals. We identified lateral water flow and pesticide transport pathways and mechanisms in a Hapludult on a sloped litchi orchard in Northern Thailand. During two rainy seasons, two micro-trench experiments were performed at the plot scale (2 by 3 m). The first experiment was performed at the footslope of the orchard; the second was performed at a midslope position. Two salt tracers (bromide and chloride) and two pesticides (methomyl [S-methyl-N-(methylcarbamoyloxy)thioacetimidate] and chlorothalonil (2,4,5,6-Tetrachlor-1,3-benzdicarbonitril)) were applied in stripes parallel to the slope 150 and 300 cm away from the trench. At the trench, soil water was collected by wick samplers. Tensiometers and time-domain reflectometry probes were installed. At the end of the experiment, soil samples were taken and analyzed for residual concentrations of tracers and pesticides. Lateral subsurface flow of water occurred exclusively along preferential flow paths and was mainly observed at 0- to 30- and 60- to 90-cm depth. Lateral transport of pesticides was negligible, but both pesticides were found beneath the application area at 90 cm depth. Therefore, they may pose a groundwater contamination risk. The amount of wick flow and the location of interflow were mainly a function of rain amount and antecedent soil water suction. During dry periods, water flow was restricted to the topsoil. After heavy rain events and wet periods, interflow was mainly observed in the subsoil. The cumulative rain amount between samplings necessary to induce interflow was 20 mm. At the footslope, the interflow was seven times higher, and the network of water-bearing pores increased compared with the midslope position.

The fate of cadmium in soils is governed by spatially heterogeneous processes that proceed from decades to centuries. This study aimed at modeling the fate of Cd within the wastewater irrigation area (WIA) of Braunschweig (Germany). The sandy soils (mainly Dystric Cambisol or Typic Haplumbrept) at this site (28 km 2 ) have received considerable loads of heavy metals by irrigation of municipal wastewater for up to 40 yr. The soils of the WIA are in agricultural use. The main crops are sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). As a result of asparagus (Asparagus officinalis L.) cropping, about 15% of the soils have been converted to Rigosols. In 1996, we measured the vertical distribution (0 to 1.2 m) of soil pH, organic carbon content, and the EDTA-extractable content and the solution phase concentration of Cd at 153 sites. At sites not used for asparagus cultivation, Cd has migrated on average to a depth of about 0.5 m. Due to deep plowing, which accelerates migration, Cd has been displaced on average to about 0.7 m at the Rigosol sites. To model the fate of Cd at the scale of the WIA, we used different parallel soil column approaches. In each column the local model SEFAH was used to simulate both displacement and plant uptake of Cd. The model was fed with measured or randomly generated soil data. The results of retrospective simulations from 1957 to 1996 agreed well with observed Cd profiles. The better the spatial variability of sorption was described, the better the performance. Our simulation results show that Cd pollution of soil at first affects the soil-plant pathway. The breakthrough of Cd to the groundwater is dampened and is delayed for many decades.

Plant uptake is one of the major pathways by which cadmium (Cd) in soils enters the human food chain. This study was conducted to investigate the uptake of Cd by crops from soils within the wastewater irrigation area (WIA) of Braunschweig (Germany) and to develop a simple process-oriented model that is suited to predict Cd uptake at the regional scale. The sandy soils within the WIA (4300 ha) have received considerable loads of heavy metals by irrigation using municipal wastewater for up to 40 years. In 1998 and 1999, we sampled soil and plant material at 40 potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), 40 sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), and 32 winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) fields. In both years and for all three crops, we found close linear relationships between the Cd content of plant material and the Cd concentration in soil solution. For all three crops, we observed a trend of relatively increased Cd uptake in the year with the higher saturation deficit of the atmosphere. We interpret this to indicate that transpiration plays an important role in the Cd uptake of crops under the conditions of the WIA. In modeling the uptake of Cd by crops, we assume that uptake is proportional to mass flow, that is, the product of water transpired, Cd concentration in soil solution, and a plant-specific empirical parameter. The simulations agreed well with the observed Cd contents in crops. Our model explained between 66 and 87% of the observed variance.

Batch techniques were utilized to investigate sorption kinetics of chlortoluron (3-(3-chlor-p-tolyl)-1,1-dimethylurea) in two field-moist soils, a silt loam (Typic Hapludalf) and a loamy sand (Aquic Haplumbrept), containing 1.1 and 0.7% organic C. To investigate effects of soil pretreatment, a part of both soil samples was initially air-dried. Initially sorption-desorption isotherms were measured using field-moist soils. Both isotherms exhibited pronounced hysteresis. The fit of a nonlinear kinetic two-stage sorption model to the data suggests that hysteresis was caused by nonattainment of equilibrium within the 24-h agitation periods. This hypothesis is supported by the fact that the estimated kinetic parameters were well suited to predict concentration vs. time experiments in both soils. The prediction of sorption-desorption isotherms measured using air-dried soils failed. Compared with the predicted data, adsorption in air-dried soil was increased while desorption hysteresis was less pronounced. Further experiments indicated that changes of soil organic matter (SOM) caused by air-drying were responsible for this effect. Measuring 24-h partitioning coefficients using the air-dried soils, rewetted to field-moisture for varying periods of time, revealed that in the course of 80 h (silt loam) and 500 h (loamy sand) after rewetting, the sorption properties of the air-dried soils were again equal to those of the respective field-moist soils.

Asseng, S. et al., Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time., We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and its leaders C. Rosenzweig from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University (USA), J. Jones from University of Florida (USA), J. Hatfield from United States Department of Agriculture (USA) and J. Antle from Oregon State University (USA) for support. We also thank M. Lopez from CIMMYT (Turkey), M. Usman Bashir from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (Pakistan), S. Soufizadeh from Shahid Beheshti University (Iran), and J. Lorgeou and J-C. Deswarte from ARVALIS—Institut du Végétal (France) for assistance with selecting key locations and quantifying regional crop cultivars, anthesis and maturity dates and R. Raymundo for assistance with GIS. S.A. and D.C. received financial support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM—Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and P.D.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O’L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. E.W. and Z.Z. were funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) through the research project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ and by the CSIRO-MoE PhD Research Program.