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154. The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Author

US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium, Cramer, Estee Y., Huang, Yuxin, Wang, Yijin, Ray, Evan L., Cornell, Matthew, Bracher, Johannes, Brennen, Andrea, Rivadeneira, Alvaro J. Castro, Gerding, Aaron, House, Katie, Jayawardena, Dasuni, Kanji, Abdul Hannan, Khandelwal, Ayush, Le, Khoa, Mody, Vidhi, Mody, Vrushti, Niemi, Jarad, Stark, Ariane, Shah, Apurv, Wattanchit, Nutcha, Zorn, Martha W., Reich, Nicholas G., Gneiting, Tilmann, Mühlemann, Anja, Gu, Youyang, Chen, Yixian, Chintanippu, Krishna, Jivane, Viresh, Khurana, Ankita, Kumar, Ajay, Lakhani, Anshul, Mehrotra, Prakhar, Pasumarty, Sujitha, Shrivastav, Monika, You, Jialu, Bannur, Nayana, Deva, Ayush, Jain, Sansiddh, Kulkarni, Mihir, Merugu, Srujana, Raval, Alpan, Shingi, Siddhant, Tiwari, Avtansh, White, Jerome, Adiga, Aniruddha, Hurt, Benjamin, Lewis, Bryan, Marathe, Madhav, Peddireddy, Akhil Sai, Porebski, Przemyslaw, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, Wang, Lijing, Dahan, Maytal, Fox, Spencer, Gaither, Kelly, Lachmann, Michael, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Scott, James G., Tec, Mauricio, Woody, Spencer, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Xu, Tianjian, Cegan, Jeffrey C., Dettwiller, Ian D., England, William P., Farthing, Matthew W., George, Glover E., Hunter, Robert H., Lafferty, Brandon, Linkov, Igor, Mayo, Michael L., Parno, Matthew D., Rowland, Michael A., Trump, Benjamin D., Chen, Samuel, Faraone, Stephen V., Hess, Jonathan, Morley, Christopher P., Salekin, Asif, Wang, Dongliang, Zhang-James, Yanli, Baer, Thomas M., Corsetti, Sabrina M., Eisenberg, Marisa C., Falb, Karl, Huang, Yitao, Martin, Emily T., McCauley, Ella, Myers, Robert L., Schwarz, Tom, Gibson, Graham Casey, Sheldon, Daniel, Gao, Liyao, Ma, Yian, Wu, Dongxia, Yu, Rose, Jin, Xiaoyong, Wang, Yu-Xiang, Yan, Xifeng, Chen, YangQuan, Guo, Lihong, Zhao, Yanting, Chen, Jinghui, Gu, Quanquan, Wang, Lingxiao, Xu, Pan, Zhang, Weitong, Zou, Difan, Chattopadhyay, Ishanu, Huang, Yi, Lu, Guoqing, Pfeiffer, Ruth, Sumner, Timothy, Wang, Dongdong, Wang, Liqiang, Zhang, Shunpu, Zou, Zihang, Biegel, Hannah, Lega, Joceline, Hussain, Fazle, Khan, Zeina, Van Bussel, Frank, McConnell, Steve, Guertin, Stephanie L., Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, Nagraj, V. P., Turner, Stephen D., Bejar, Benjamín, Choirat, Christine, Flahault, Antoine, Krymova, Ekaterina, Lee, Gavin, Manetti, Elisa, Namigai, Kristen, Obozinski, Guillaume, Sun, Tao, Thanou, Dorina, Ban, Xuegang, Shi, Yunfeng, Walraven, Robert, Hong, Qi-Jun, Van De Walle, Axel, Ben-Nun, Michal, Riley, Steven, Riley, Pete, Turtle, James, Cao, Duy, Galasso, Joseph, Cho, Jae H., Jo, Areum, DesRoches, David, Forli, Pedro, Hamory, Bruce, Koyluoglu, Ugur, Kyriakides, Christina, Leis, Helen, Milliken, John, Moloney, Michael, Morgan, James, Nirgudkar, Ninad, Ozcan, Gokce, Piwonka, Noah, Ravi, Matt, Schrader, Chris, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, Siegel, Daniel, Spatz, Ryan, Stiefeling, Chris, Wilkinson, Barrie, Wong, Alexander, Cavany, Sean, España, Guido, Moore, Sean, Oidtman, Rachel, Perkins, Alex, Ivy, Julie S., Mayorga, Maria E., Mele, Jessica, Rosenstrom, Erik T., Swann, Julie L., Kraus, Andrea, Kraus, David, Bian, Jiang, Cao, Wei, Gao, Zhifeng, Ferres, Juan Lavista, Li, Chaozhuo, Liu, Tie-Yan, Xie, Xing, Zhang, Shun, Zheng, Shun, Chinazzi, Matteo, Vespignani, Alessandro, Xiong, Xinyue, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Piontti, Ana Pastore Y, Baek, Jackie, Farias, Vivek, Georgescu, Andreea, Levi, Retsef, Sinha, Deeksha, Wilde, Joshua, Zheng, Andrew, Lami, Omar Skali, Bennouna, Amine, Ndong, David Nze, Perakis, Georgia, Singhvi, Divya, Spantidakis, Ioannis, Thayaparan, Leann, Tsiourvas, Asterios, Weisberg, Shane, Jadbabaie, Ali, Sarker, Arnab, Shah, Devavrat, Celi, Leo A., Penna, Nicolas D., Sundar, Saketh, Berlin, Abraham, Gandhi, Parth D., McAndrew, Thomas, Piriya, Matthew, Chen, Ye, Hlavacek, William, Lin, Yen Ting, Mallela, Abhishek, Miller, Ely, Neumann, Jacob, Posner, Richard, Wolfinger, Russ, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Michaud, Isaac, Osthus, Dave, Wolffram, Daniel, Karlen, Dean, Panaggio, Mark J., Kinsey, Matt, Mullany, Luke C., Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, Shin, Lauren, Tallaksen, Katharine, Wilson, Shelby, Brenner, Michael, Coram, Marc, Edwards, Jessie K., Joshi, Keya, Klein, Ellen, Hulse, Juan Dent, Grantz, Kyra H., Hill, Alison L., Kaminsky, Kathryn, Kaminsky, Joshua, Keegan, Lindsay T., Lauer, Stephen A., Lee, Elizabeth C., Lemaitre, Joseph C., Lessler, Justin, Meredith, Hannah R., Perez-Saez, Javier, Shah, Sam, Smith, Claire P., Truelove, Shaun A., Wills, Josh, Gardner, Lauren, Marshall, Maximilian, Nixon, Kristen, Burant, John C., Budzinski, Jozef, Chiang, Wen-Hao, Mohler, George, Gao, Junyi, Glass, Lucas, Qian, Cheng, Romberg, Justin, Sharma, Rakshith, Spaeder, Jeffrey, Sun, Jimeng, Xiao, Cao, Gao, Lei, Gu, Zhiling, Kim, Myungjin, Li, Xinyi, Wang, Yueying, Wang, Guannan, Wang, Lily, Yu, Shan, Jain, Chaman, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Nouvellet, Pierre, Barber, Ryan, Gaikedu, Emmanuela, Hay, Simon, Lim, Steve, Murray, Chris, Pigott, David, Reiner, Robert C., Baccam, Prasith, Gurung, Heidi L., Stage, Steven A., Suchoski, Bradley T., Fong, Chung-Yan, Yeung, Dit-Yan, Adhikari, Bijaya, Cui, Jiaming, Prakash, B. Aditya, Rodríguez, Alexander, Tabassum, Anika, Xie, Jiajia, Asplund, John, Baxter, Arden, Keskinocak, Pinar, Oruc, Buse Eylul, Serban, Nicoleta, Arik, Sercan O., Dusenberry, Mike, Epshteyn, Arkady, Kanal, Elli, Le, Long T., Li, Chun-Liang, Pfister, Tomas, Sinha, Rajarishi, Tsai, Thomas, Yoder, Nate, Yoon, Jinsung, Zhang, Leyou, Wilson, Daniel, Belov, Artur A., Chow, Carson C., Gerkin, Richard C., Yogurtcu, Osman N., Ibrahim, Mark, Lacroix, Timothee, Le, Matthew, Liao, Jason, Nickel, Maximilian, Sagun, Levent, Abbott, Sam, Bosse, Nikos I., Funk, Sebastian, Hellewell, Joel, Meakin, Sophie R., Sherratt, Katharine, Kalantari, Rahi, Zhou, Mingyuan, Karimzadeh, Morteza, Lucas, Benjamin, Ngo, Thoai, Zoraghein, Hamidreza, Vahedi, Behzad, Wang, Zhongying, Pei, Sen, Shaman, Jeffrey, Yamana, Teresa K., Bertsimas, Dimitris, Li, Michael L., Soni, Saksham, Bouardi, Hamza Tazi, Adee, Madeline, Ayer, Turgay, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, Dalgic, Ozden O., Ladd, Mary A., Linas, Benjamin P., Mueller, Peter, Xiao, Jade, Bosch, Jurgen, Wilson, Austin, Zimmerman, Peter, Wang, Qinxia, Wang, Yuanjia, Xie, Shanghong, Zeng, Donglin, Bien, Jacob, Brooks, Logan, Green, Alden, Hu, Addison J., Jahja, Maria, McDonald, Daniel, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, Politsch, Collin, Rajanala, Samyak, Rumack, Aaron, Simon, Noah, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Tibshirani, Rob, Ventura, Valerie, Wasserman, Larry, Drake, John M., O’Dea, Eamon B., Abu-Mostafa, Yaser, Bathwal, Rahil, Chang, Nicholas A., Chitta, Pavan, Erickson, Anne, Goel, Sumit, Gowda, Jethin, Jin, Qixuan, Jo, HyeongChan, Kim, Juhyun, Kulkarni, Pranav, Lushtak, Samuel M., Mann, Ethan, Popken, Max, Soohoo, Connor, Tirumala, Kushal, Tseng, Albert, Varadarajan, Vignesh, Vytheeswaran, Jagath, Wang, Christopher, Yeluri, Akshay, Yurk, Dominic, Zhang, Michael, Zlokapa, Alexander, Pagano, Robert, Jain, Chandini, Tomar, Vishal, Ho, Lam, Huynh, Huong, Tran, Quoc, Lopez, Velma K., Walker, Jo W., Slayton, Rachel B., Johansson, Michael A., and Biggerstaff, Matthew

Subjects
ddc:510, Mathematics
Abstract

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

Published
2022

159. Risk and resilience must be independently managed

Author

Linkov, Igor, Trump, Benjamin D., and Keisler, Jeffrey

Subjects
Risk management -- Terminology, Risk management, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation, National Academy of Sciences -- Terminology
Abstract

Author(s): Igor Linkov; Benjamin D. Trump; Jeffrey Keisler 'Risk' and 'resilience' are fundamentally different concepts that are often conflated. Yet maintaining the distinction is a policy necessity. Applying a risk-based [...]

Published
2018
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160. Emerging Threats of Synthetic Biology and Biotechnology

Author

Trump, Benjamin D., Florin, Marie-Valentine, Perkins, Edward, and Linkov, Igor

Subjects
Synthetic Biology Governance, Biotechnology Regulation, Environmental Sustainability, Energy Production, Risks and Applications, Risk Assessment, Human Health Risks, Environmental Health Risks, Open Access, bic Book Industry Communication::M Medicine::MQ Nursing & ancillary services::MQW Biomedical engineering, bic Book Industry Communication::T Technology, engineering, agriculture::TQ Environmental science, engineering & technology, bic Book Industry Communication::J Society & social sciences::JP Politics & government::JPS International relations, bic Book Industry Communication::J Society & social sciences::JK Social services & welfare, criminology::JKV Crime & criminology, bic Book Industry Communication::T Technology, engineering, agriculture::TC Biochemical engineering::TCB Biotechnology, bic Book Industry Communication::L Law::LN Laws of Specific jurisdictions::LNK Environment, transport & planning law::LNKJ Environment law
Abstract

Synthetic biology is a field of biotechnology that is rapidly growing in various applications, such as in medicine, environmental sustainability, and energy production. However these technologies also have unforeseen risks and applications to humans and the environment. This open access book presents discussions on risks and mitigation strategies for these technologies including biosecurity, or the potential of synthetic biology technologies and processes to be deliberately misused for nefarious purposes. The book presents strategies to prevent, mitigate, and recover from ‘dual-use concern’ biosecurity challenges that may be raised by individuals, rogue states, or non-state actors. Several key topics are explored including opportunities to develop more coherent and scalable approaches to govern biosecurity from a laboratory perspective up to the international scale and strategies to prevent potential health and environmental hazards posed by deliberate misuse of synthetic biology without stifling innovation. The book brings together the expertise of top scholars in synthetic biology and biotechnology risk assessment, management, and communication to discuss potential biosecurity governing strategies and offer perspectives for collaboration in oversight and future regulatory guidance.

Published
2021
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162. Can Comorbidity Data Explain Cross-State and Cross-National Difference in COVID-19 Death Rates?

Author

Cegan, Jeffrey C, primary, Trump, Benjamin D, additional, Cibulsky, Susan M, additional, Collier, Zachary A, additional, Cummings, Christopher L, additional, Greer, Scott L, additional, Jarman, Holly, additional, Klasa, Kasia, additional, Kleinman, Gary, additional, Surette, Melissa A, additional, Wells, Emily, additional, and Linkov, Igor, additional

Published
2021
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163. Relationship among state reopening policies, health outcomes and economic recovery through first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

Author

Ligo, Alexandre K. (author), Mahoney, Emerson (author), Cegan, Jeffrey (author), Trump, Benjamin D. (author), Jin, Andrew S. (author), Kitsak, M.A. (author), Keenan, Jesse (author), Linkov, Igor (author), Ligo, Alexandre K. (author), Mahoney, Emerson (author), Cegan, Jeffrey (author), Trump, Benjamin D. (author), Jin, Andrew S. (author), Kitsak, M.A. (author), Keenan, Jesse (author), and Linkov, Igor (author)

Abstract

State governments in the U.S. have been facing difficult decisions involving tradeoffs between economic and health-related outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite evidence of the effectiveness of government-mandated restrictions mitigating the spread of contagion, these orders are stigmatized due to undesirable economic consequences. This tradeoff resulted in state governments employing mandates at widely different ways. We compare the different policies states implemented during periods of restriction (“lockdown”) and reopening with indicators of COVID-19 spread and consumer card spending at each state during the first “wave” of the pandemic in the U.S. between March and August 2020. We find that while some states enacted reopening decisions when the incidence rate of COVID-19 was minimal or sustained in its relative decline, other states relaxed socioeconomic restrictions near their highest incidence and prevalence rates experienced so far. Nevertheless, all states experienced similar trends in consumer card spending recovery, which was strongly correlated with reopening policies following the lockdowns and relatively independent from COVID-19 incidence rates at the time. Our findings suggest that consumer card spending patterns can be attributed to government mandates rather than COVID-19 incidence in the states. We estimate the recovery in states that reopened in late April was more than the recovery in states that did not reopen in the same period– 15% for consumer card spending and 18% for spending by high income households. This result highlights the important role of state policies in minimizing health impacts while promoting economic recovery and helps planning effective interventions in subsequent waves and immunization efforts., Network Architectures and Services

Published
2021
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164. Emerging Biotechnology and Information Hazards

Author

Nieuwenweg, Carina, Trump, Benjamin D., Klasa, Katarzyna, Bleijs, Diederik A., Oye, Kenneth A., Nieuwenweg, Carina, Trump, Benjamin D., Klasa, Katarzyna, Bleijs, Diederik A., and Oye, Kenneth A.

Abstract

Biotechnology innovation has never been more accessible to individuals, companies, and (research)organizations. Advances in genetic engineering, declining costs, and improved education have improved access to biotechnologies. Such openness has provided many benefits as biotechnology has been used to address some of the world’s most intractable problems However, increased access to biotechnology tools and knowledge may also pose risks to humans, animals, and the environment (Meyer 2013; Kera 2014; Li et al. 2017; Oye 2012).

Published
2021

165. Building biosecurity for synthetic biology

Author

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Trump, Benjamin D, Galaitsi, SE, Appleton, Evan, Bleijs, Diederik A, Florin, Marie-Valentine, Gollihar, Jimmy D, Hamilton, R Alexander, Kuiken, Todd, Lentzos, Filippa, Mampuys, Ruth, Merad, Myriam, Novossiolova, Tatyana, Oye, Kenneth, Perkins, Edward, Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia, Rhodes, Catherine, Linkov, Igor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Trump, Benjamin D, Galaitsi, SE, Appleton, Evan, Bleijs, Diederik A, Florin, Marie-Valentine, Gollihar, Jimmy D, Hamilton, R Alexander, Kuiken, Todd, Lentzos, Filippa, Mampuys, Ruth, Merad, Myriam, Novossiolova, Tatyana, Oye, Kenneth, Perkins, Edward, Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia, Rhodes, Catherine, and Linkov, Igor

Abstract

© 2020 The Authors. Published under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license The fast-paced field of synthetic biology is fundamentally changing the global biosecurity framework. Current biosecurity regulations and strategies are based on previous governance paradigms for pathogen-oriented security, recombinant DNA research, and broader concerns related to genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Many scholarly discussions and biosecurity practitioners are therefore concerned that synthetic biology outpaces established biosafety and biosecurity measures to prevent deliberate and malicious or inadvertent and accidental misuse of synthetic biology's processes or products. This commentary proposes three strategies to improve biosecurity: Security must be treated as an investment in the future applicability of the technology; social scientists and policy makers should be engaged early in technology development and forecasting; and coordination among global stakeholders is necessary to ensure acceptable levels of risk.

Published
2021

166. Can Comorbidity Data Explain Cross-State and Cross-National Difference in COVID-19 Death Rates?

Author

Cegan,Jeffrey C, Trump,Benjamin D, Cibulsky,Susan M, Collier,Zachary A, Cummings,Christopher L, Greer,Scott L, Jarman,Holly, Klasa,Kasia, Kleinman,Gary, Surette,Melissa A, Wells,Emily, Linkov,Igor, Cegan,Jeffrey C, Trump,Benjamin D, Cibulsky,Susan M, Collier,Zachary A, Cummings,Christopher L, Greer,Scott L, Jarman,Holly, Klasa,Kasia, Kleinman,Gary, Surette,Melissa A, Wells,Emily, and Linkov,Igor

Abstract

Jeffrey C Cegan,1 Benjamin D Trump,1 Susan M Cibulsky,2 Zachary A Collier,3 Christopher L Cummings,4 Scott L Greer,5 Holly Jarman,5 Kasia Klasa,1,5 Gary Kleinman,2 Melissa A Surette,6 Emily Wells,1 Igor Linkov1 1US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, Vicksburg, MS, USA; 2US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Boston, MA, USA; 3Radford University, Davis College of Business and Economics, Department of Management, Radford, VA, USA; 4North Carolina State University, Genetic Engineering and Society Center, Raleigh, NC, USA; 5University of Michigan, School of Public Health, Department of Health Management and Policy, Ann Arbor, MI, USA; 6Federal Emergency Management Agency, Region I, Boston, MA, USACorrespondence: Jeffrey C Cegan; Igor LinkovUS Army Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, MA, 01742, USATel +1-978-318-8881; +1-617-233-9869Email Jeffrey.C.Cegan@usace.army.mil; Igor.Linkov@usace.army.milAbstract: Many efforts to predict the impact of COVID-19 on hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) utilization, and mortality rely on age and comorbidities. These predictions are foundational to learning, policymaking, and planning for the pandemic, and therefore understanding the relationship between age, comorbidities, and health outcomes is critical to assessing and managing public health risks. From a US government database of 1.4 million patient records collected in May 2020, we extracted the relationships between age and number of comorbidities at the individual level to predict the likelihood of hospitalization, admission to intensive care, and death. We then applied the relationships to each US state and a selection of different countries in order to see whether they predicted observed outcome rates. We found that age and comorbidity data within these geographical regions do not explain much of the

Published
2021

169. Lessons from History

Author

Linkov, Igor and Trump, Benjamin D.

Subjects
Article
Abstract

Resilience has a lengthy history of practice and implementation for events of extreme consequence and high uncertainty. One of the clearest cases of embryonic resilience thinking includes Medieval Venice, which was forced to grapple with the recurring threat of plague that threatened to destroy the fabric of European society and cripple the juggernaut of Venetian maritime trade (Linkov et al. 2014a, b, c, d, e; Lane 1973). This early resilience thinking did not fully inoculate Venetian society from the ravages of disease—on the contrary, limitations of medical knowledge and border control allowed for outbreaks throughout the early modern era—yet it did allow Venetian policymakers to begin to address the question of how to combat deadly disease. The cumulative successes in reducing disease incidence and spread throughout the city and its dependent settlements eventually brought policymakers to embrace resilience thinking for other unrelated projects ranging from climate change to land reclamation efforts—all centered on the idea of strengthening Venetian social, economic, and cultural capabilities in the midst of an uncertain future (Vergano and Nunes 2007; Linkov et al. 2014a, b, c, d, e). This all goes to show that while resilience thinking and resilience analysis are growing buzzwords in the early twenty-first century, their roots go back centuries before even the printing press or functional medicine.

Published
2018

170. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US

Author

Cramer, Estee Y, primary, Ray, Evan L, additional, Lopez, Velma K, additional, Bracher, Johannes, additional, Brennen, Andrea, additional, Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J, additional, Gerding, Aaron, additional, Gneiting, Tilmann, additional, House, Katie H, additional, Huang, Yuxin, additional, Jayawardena, Dasuni, additional, Kanji, Abdul H, additional, Khandelwal, Ayush, additional, Le, Khoa, additional, Mühlemann, Anja, additional, Niemi, Jarad, additional, Shah, Apurv, additional, Stark, Ariane, additional, Wang, Yijin, additional, Wattanachit, Nutcha, additional, Zorn, Martha W, additional, Gu, Youyang, additional, Jain, Sansiddh, additional, Bannur, Nayana, additional, Deva, Ayush, additional, Kulkarni, Mihir, additional, Merugu, Srujana, additional, Raval, Alpan, additional, Shingi, Siddhant, additional, Tiwari, Avtansh, additional, White, Jerome, additional, Abernethy, Neil F, additional, Woody, Spencer, additional, Dahan, Maytal, additional, Fox, Spencer, additional, Gaither, Kelly, additional, Lachmann, Michael, additional, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional, Scott, James G, additional, Tec, Mauricio, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, George, Glover E, additional, Cegan, Jeffrey C, additional, Dettwiller, Ian D, additional, England, William P, additional, Farthing, Matthew W, additional, Hunter, Robert H, additional, Lafferty, Brandon, additional, Linkov, Igor, additional, Mayo, Michael L, additional, Parno, Matthew D, additional, Rowland, Michael A, additional, Trump, Benjamin D, additional, Zhang-James, Yanli, additional, Chen, Samuel, additional, Faraone, Stephen V, additional, Hess, Jonathan, additional, Morley, Christopher P, additional, Salekin, Asif, additional, Wang, Dongliang, additional, Corsetti, Sabrina M, additional, Baer, Thomas M, additional, Eisenberg, Marisa C, additional, Falb, Karl, additional, Huang, Yitao, additional, Martin, Emily T, additional, McCauley, Ella, additional, Myers, Robert L, additional, Schwarz, Tom, additional, Sheldon, Daniel, additional, Gibson, Graham Casey, additional, Yu, Rose, additional, Gao, Liyao, additional, Ma, Yian, additional, Wu, Dongxia, additional, Yan, Xifeng, additional, Jin, Xiaoyong, additional, Wang, Yu-Xiang, additional, Chen, YangQuan, additional, Guo, Lihong, additional, Zhao, Yanting, additional, Gu, Quanquan, additional, Chen, Jinghui, additional, Wang, Lingxiao, additional, Xu, Pan, additional, Zhang, Weitong, additional, Zou, Difan, additional, Biegel, Hannah, additional, Lega, Joceline, additional, McConnell, Steve, additional, Nagraj, VP, additional, Guertin, Stephanie L, additional, Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, additional, Turner, Stephen D, additional, Shi, Yunfeng, additional, Ban, Xuegang, additional, Walraven, Robert, additional, Hong, Qi-Jun, additional, Kong, Stanley, additional, van de Walle, Axel, additional, Turtle, James A, additional, Ben-Nun, Michal, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Riley, Pete, additional, Koyluoglu, Ugur, additional, DesRoches, David, additional, Forli, Pedro, additional, Hamory, Bruce, additional, Kyriakides, Christina, additional, Leis, Helen, additional, Milliken, John, additional, Moloney, Michael, additional, Morgan, James, additional, Nirgudkar, Ninad, additional, Ozcan, Gokce, additional, Piwonka, Noah, additional, Ravi, Matt, additional, Schrader, Chris, additional, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, additional, Siegel, Daniel, additional, Spatz, Ryan, additional, Stiefeling, Chris, additional, Wilkinson, Barrie, additional, Wong, Alexander, additional, Cavany, Sean, additional, España, Guido, additional, Moore, Sean, additional, Oidtman, Rachel, additional, Perkins, Alex, additional, Kraus, David, additional, Kraus, Andrea, additional, Gao, Zhifeng, additional, Bian, Jiang, additional, Cao, Wei, additional, Ferres, Juan Lavista, additional, Li, Chaozhuo, additional, Liu, Tie-Yan, additional, Xie, Xing, additional, Zhang, Shun, additional, Zheng, Shun, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, y Piontti, Ana Pastore, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Zheng, Andrew, additional, Baek, Jackie, additional, Farias, Vivek, additional, Georgescu, Andreea, additional, Levi, Retsef, additional, Sinha, Deeksha, additional, Wilde, Joshua, additional, Perakis, Georgia, additional, Bennouna, Mohammed Amine, additional, Nze-Ndong, David, additional, Singhvi, Divya, additional, Spantidakis, Ioannis, additional, Thayaparan, Leann, additional, Tsiourvas, Asterios, additional, Sarker, Arnab, additional, Jadbabaie, Ali, additional, Shah, Devavrat, additional, Penna, Nicolas Della, additional, Celi, Leo A, additional, Sundar, Saketh, additional, Wolfinger, Russ, additional, Osthus, Dave, additional, Castro, Lauren, additional, Fairchild, Geoffrey, additional, Michaud, Isaac, additional, Karlen, Dean, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Mullany, Luke C., additional, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Tallaksen, Katharine, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C, additional, Dent, Juan, additional, Grantz, Kyra H, additional, Hill, Alison L, additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Kaminsky, Kathryn, additional, Keegan, Lindsay T, additional, Lauer, Stephen A, additional, Lemaitre, Joseph C, additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Meredith, Hannah R, additional, Perez-Saez, Javier, additional, Shah, Sam, additional, Smith, Claire P, additional, Truelove, Shaun A, additional, Wills, Josh, additional, Marshall, Maximilian, additional, Gardner, Lauren, additional, Nixon, Kristen, additional, Burant, John C., additional, Wang, Lily, additional, Gao, Lei, additional, Gu, Zhiling, additional, Kim, Myungjin, additional, Li, Xinyi, additional, Wang, Guannan, additional, Wang, Yueying, additional, Yu, Shan, additional, Reiner, Robert C, additional, Barber, Ryan, additional, Gakidou, Emmanuela, additional, Hay, Simon I., additional, Lim, Steve, additional, Murray, Chris J.L., additional, Pigott, David, additional, Gurung, Heidi L, additional, Baccam, Prasith, additional, Stage, Steven A, additional, Suchoski, Bradley T, additional, Prakash, B. Aditya, additional, Adhikari, Bijaya, additional, Cui, Jiaming, additional, Rodríguez, Alexander, additional, Tabassum, Anika, additional, Xie, Jiajia, additional, Keskinocak, Pinar, additional, Asplund, John, additional, Baxter, Arden, additional, Oruc, Buse Eylul, additional, Serban, Nicoleta, additional, Arik, Sercan O, additional, Dusenberry, Mike, additional, Epshteyn, Arkady, additional, Kanal, Elli, additional, Le, Long T, additional, Li, Chun-Liang, additional, Pfister, Tomas, additional, Sava, Dario, additional, Sinha, Rajarishi, additional, Tsai, Thomas, additional, Yoder, Nate, additional, Yoon, Jinsung, additional, Zhang, Leyou, additional, Abbott, Sam, additional, Bosse, Nikos I, additional, Funk, Sebastian, additional, Hellewell, Joel, additional, Meakin, Sophie R, additional, Sherratt, Katharine, additional, Zhou, Mingyuan, additional, Kalantari, Rahi, additional, Yamana, Teresa K, additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey, additional, Li, Michael L, additional, Bertsimas, Dimitris, additional, Lami, Omar Skali, additional, Soni, Saksham, additional, Bouardi, Hamza Tazi, additional, Ayer, Turgay, additional, Adee, Madeline, additional, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, additional, Dalgic, Ozden O, additional, Ladd, Mary A, additional, Linas, Benjamin P, additional, Mueller, Peter, additional, Xiao, Jade, additional, Wang, Yuanjia, additional, Wang, Qinxia, additional, Xie, Shanghong, additional, Zeng, Donglin, additional, Green, Alden, additional, Bien, Jacob, additional, Brooks, Logan, additional, Hu, Addison J, additional, Jahja, Maria, additional, McDonald, Daniel, additional, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, additional, Politsch, Collin, additional, Rajanala, Samyak, additional, Rumack, Aaron, additional, Simon, Noah, additional, Tibshirani, Ryan J, additional, Tibshirani, Rob, additional, Ventura, Valerie, additional, Wasserman, Larry, additional, O’Dea, Eamon B, additional, Drake, John M, additional, Pagano, Robert, additional, Tran, Quoc T, additional, Tung Ho, Lam Si, additional, Huynh, Huong, additional, Walker, Jo W, additional, Slayton, Rachel B, additional, Johansson, Michael A, additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, and Reich, Nicholas G, additional

Published
2021
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177. An Analytical Perspective on Pandemic Recovery

Author

Trump, Benjamin D., primary, Bridges, Todd S., additional, Cegan, Jeffrey C., additional, Cibulsky, Susan M., additional, Greer, Scott L., additional, Jarman, Holly, additional, Lafferty, Brandon J., additional, Surette, Melissa A., additional, and Linkov, Igor, additional

Published
2020
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182. Applying Resilience to Hybrid Threats

Author

Linkov, Igor, primary, Baiardi, Fabrizio, additional, Florin, Marie-Valentine, additional, Greer, Scott, additional, Lambert, James H., additional, Pollock, Miriam, additional, Rickli, Jean-Marc, additional, Roslycky, Lada, additional, Seager, Thomas, additional, Thorisson, Heimir, additional, and Trump, Benjamin D., additional

Published
2019
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183. Co-evolution of physical and social sciences in synthetic biology

Author

Trump, Benjamin D., primary, Cegan, Jeffrey, additional, Wells, Emily, additional, Poinsatte-Jones, Kelsey, additional, Rycroft, Taylor, additional, Warner, Christopher, additional, Martin, David, additional, Perkins, Edward, additional, Wood, Matthew D., additional, and Linkov, Igor, additional

Published
2019
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187. The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats.

Author

Galaitsi, S. E., Keisler, Jeffrey M., Trump, Benjamin D., and Linkov, Igor

Subjects
CONCEPTS, SEMI-structured interviews, SYSTEM dynamics, LITERATURE reviews, VISUALIZATION
Abstract

Desirable system performance in the face of threats has been characterized by various management concepts. Through semistructured interviews with editors of journals in the fields of emergency response and systems management, a literature review, and professional judgment, we identified nine related and often interchangeably used system performance concepts: adaptability, agility, reliability, resilience, resistance, robustness, safety, security, and sustainability. A better understanding of these concepts will allow system planners to pursue management strategies best suited to their unique system dynamics and specific objectives of good performance. We analyze expert responses and review the linguistic definitions and mathematical framing of these concepts to understand their applications. We find a lack of consensus on their usage between interview subjects, but by using the mathematical framing to enrich the linguistic definitions, we formulate comparative visualizations and propose distinct definitions for the nine concepts. We present a conceptual framing to relate the concepts for management purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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195. List of Contributors

Author

Andrews, David, Avery, David, Bowman, Diana M., Cash, Leigh J., Coenen, Christopher, Duval, Alicia L., Faunce, Tom, Feitshans, Ilise L., Friedrichs, Steffi, Geraci, Charles L., Glover, Jamie, Grunwald, Armin, Gulson, Brian, Harper, Stacey L., Hendren, Christine Ogilvie, Hewett, Joel, Hill, W. Cary, Hochella, Michael F., Jr., Hodson, Laura L., Hoover, Mark D., Hull, Matthew S., Kennedy, Alan J., Linkov, Igor, Lowry, Gregory V., MacCuspie, Robert I., Marr, Linsey C., Maynard, Andrew D., McCall, Maxine J., Michel, F. Marc, Michelson, Evan S., Nel, Andre E., Newman, Nils, Nichols, Gregory, L. Porter, Alan, Pruden, Amy, Pruitt, Tonya R., Rajan, Krishna, Roco, Mihail C., Santamaria, Annette B., Savage, Nora, Sayes, Christie M., Shapira, Philip, Shelley-Egan, Clare, Thomas, Treye A., Trump, Benjamin D., Trump, Joshua, Vikesland, Peter J., Warner, Christopher M., Weaver, John, Wiesner, M.R., and Youtie, Jan

Published
2018
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196. Community‐Driven Hypothesis Testing: A Solution for the Tragedy of the Anticommons.

Author

Palma‐Oliveira, José Manuel, Trump, Benjamin D., Wood, Matthew D., and Linkov, Igor

Subjects
PROPERTY rights, RISK communication, ENVIRONMENTAL health, PUBLIC health, INDUSTRIAL hygiene, GOVERNMENT policy
Abstract

Abstract: Shared ownership of property and resources is a longstanding challenge throughout history that has been amplifying with the increasing development of industrial and postindustrial societies. Where governments, project planners, and commercial developers seek to develop new infrastructure, industrial projects, and various other land‐and resource‐intensive tasks, veto power shared by various local stakeholders can complicate or halt progress. Risk communication has been used as an attempt to address stakeholder concerns in these contexts, but has demonstrated shortcomings. These coordination failures between project planners and stakeholders can be described as a specific kind of social dilemma that we describe as the “tragedy of the anticommons.” To overcome such dilemmas, we demonstrate how a two‐step process can directly address public mistrust of project planners and public perceptions of limited decision‐making authority. This approach is examined via two separate empirical field experiments in Portugal and Tunisia, where public resistance and anticommons problems threatened to derail emerging industrial projects. In both applications, an intervention is undertaken to address initial public resistance to such projects, where specific public stakeholders and project sponsors collectively engaged in a hypothesis‐testing process to identify and assess human and environmental health risks associated with proposed industrial facilities. These field experiments indicate that a rigorous attempt to address public mistrust and perceptions of power imbalances and change the pay‐off structure of the given dilemma may help overcome such anticommons problems in specific cases, and may potentially generate enthusiasm and support for such projects by local publics moving forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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197. Governance Strategies for a Sustainable Digital World.

Author

Linkov, Igor, Trump, Benjamin D., Poinsatte-Jones, Kelsey, and Florin, Marie-Valentine

Abstract

Digitalization is changing society by the increased connectivity and networking that digital technologies enable, such as enhancing communication, services, and trade. Increasingly, policymakers within various national governments and international organizations such as the United Nations (UN) and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are examining the original sustainability policy concepts applied within the Brundtland Report of 1987 through the lens of digitalization. While the growth of a digital economy may increase productivity and benefit local and global economies, digitalization also raises potential sustainability challenges pertaining to social (i.e., the benefits or costs imposed by disruptive digital technologies upon social networks and ways of life, including threats to economic sustainability and the rise of economic disparity) and environmental wellbeing (i.e., natural resource stewardship and concern for future generations) driven by the automation of information processing and delivery of services. Various perspectives have been raised regarding how the process of digitalization might be governed, and national governments remain at odds regarding a single best strategy to promote sustainable digitalization using the Brundtland concept to meet the development needs of the present without compromising the needs of future generations (i.e., social and environmental well-being). This paper reviews three governance strategies that countries can use in conjunction with adaptive governance to respond to digitalization sustainability threats: (i) a laissez-faire, industry-driven approach; (ii) a precautionary and preemptive strategy on the part of government; and (iii) a stewardship and “active surveillance” approach by government agencies that reduce the risks derived from digitalization while promoting private sector innovation. Regardless of a state’s digital governance response and how it is shaped by political and institutional realities, adaptive governance approaches are likely necessary to address the economic and social sustainability challenges posed within differing manifestations of digitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018
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198. Equitable Response in Crisis: Methodology and Application for COVID-19

Author

Trump, Benjamin D., Jin, Andrew, Galaitsi, Stephanie, Cummings, Christopher, Jarman, Holly, Greer, Scott, Sharma, Vidur, and Linkov, Igor

Abstract

Equitable allocation and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine have proven to be a major policy challenge exacerbated by incomplete pandemic risk data. To rectify this shortcoming, a three-step data visualization methodology was developed to assess COVID-19 vaccination equity in the United States using state health department, U.S. Census, and CDC data. Part one establishes an equitable pathway deviation index to identify populations with limited vaccination. Part two measures perceived access and public intentions to vaccinate over time. Part three synthesizes these data with the social vulnerability index to identify areas and communities at particular risk. Results demonstrate significant equity differences at a census-tract level, and across demographic and socioeconomic population characteristics. Results were used by various federal agencies to improve coordinated pandemic risk response and implement a commitment to equity as defined by the Executive Order regarding COVID-19 vaccination and booster policy. This methodology can be utilized in other fields where addressing the difficulties of promoting health equity in public policy is essential.

Published
2023
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