Search

During the first three flights of the Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) experiment, the collaboration detected several neutrino candidates. Two of these candidate events were consistent with an ultra-high-energy upgoing air shower and compatible with a tau neutrino interpretation. A third neutrino candidate event was detected in a search for Askaryan radiation in the Antarctic ice, although it is also consistent with the background expectation. The inferred emergence angle of the first two events is in tension with IceCube and ANITA limits on isotropic cosmogenic neutrino fluxes. Here we test the hypothesis that these events are astrophysical in origin, possibly caused by a point source in the reconstructed direction. Given that any ultra-high-energy tau neutrino flux traversing the Earth should be accompanied by a secondary flux in the TeV-PeV range, we search for these secondary counterparts in 7 yr of IceCube data using three complementary approaches. In the absence of any significant detection, we set upper limits on the neutrino flux from potential point sources. We compare these limits to ANITA's sensitivity in the same direction and show that an astrophysical explanation of these anomalous events under standard model assumptions is severely constrained regardless of source spectrum.

There is large uncertainty whether Amazon forests will remain a carbon sink as atmospheric CO2 increases. Hence, we simulated an old-growth tropical forest using six versions of four terrestrial models differing in scale of vegetation structure and representation of biogeochemical (BGC) cycling, all driven with CO2 forcing from the preindustrial period to 2100. The models were benchmarked against tree inventory and eddy covariance data from a Brazilian site for present-day predictions. All models predicted positive vegetation growth that outpaced mortality, leading to continual increases in present-day biomass accumulation. Notably, the two vegetation demographic models (VDMs) (ED2 and ELM-FATES) always predicted positive stem diameter growth in all size classes. The field data, however, indicated that a quarter of canopy trees didn't grow over the 15-year period, and while high interannual variation existed, biomass change was near neutral. With a doubling of CO2, three of the four models predicted an appreciable biomass sink (0.77 to 1.24 Mg ha−1 year−1). ELMv1-ECA, the only model used here that includes phosphorus constraints, predicted the lowest biomass sink relative to initial biomass stocks (+21%), lower than the other BGC model, CLM5 (+48%). Models projections differed primarily through variations in nutrient constraints, then carbon allocation, initial biomass, and density-dependent mortality. The VDM's performance was similar or better than the BGC models run in carbon-only mode, suggesting that nutrient competition in VDMs will improve predictions. We demonstrate that VDMs are comparable to nondemographic (i.e., “big-leaf”) models but also include finer scale demography and competition that can be evaluated against field observations.

The measurement of diffuse PeV gamma-ray emission from the Galactic plane would provide information about the energy spectrum and propagation of Galactic cosmic rays, and the detection of a pointlike source of PeV gamma-rays would be strong evidence for a Galactic source capable of accelerating cosmic rays up to at least a few PeV. This paper presents several unbinned maximum-likelihood searches for PeV gamma-rays in the Southern Hemisphere using 5 yr of data from the IceTop air shower surface detector and the in-ice array of the IceCube Observatory. The combination of both detectors takes advantage of the low muon content and deep shower maximum of gamma-ray air showers and provides excellent sensitivity to gamma-rays between ∼0.6 and 100 PeV. Our measurements of pointlike and diffuse Galactic emission of PeV gamma-rays are consistent with the background, so we constrain the angle-integrated diffuse gamma-ray flux from the Galactic plane at 2 PeV to 2.61 × 10-19 cm-2 s-1 TeV-1 at 90% confidence, assuming an E -3 spectrum, and we estimate 90% upper limits on pointlike emission at 2 PeV between 10-21 and 10-20 cm-2 s-1 TeV-1 for an E -2 spectrum, depending on decl. Furthermore, we exclude unbroken power-law emission up to 2 PeV for several TeV gamma-ray sources observed by the High Energy Spectroscopic System and calculate upper limits on the energy cutoffs of these sources at 90% confidence. We also find no PeV gamma-rays correlated with neutrinos from IceCube's high-energy starting event sample. These are currently the strongest constraints on PeV gamma-ray emission.

Most planetary discoveries with the K2 and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) missions are restricted to short periods because of the limited duration of observation. However, the re-observation of sky area allows for the detection of longer period planets. We describe new transits detected in six candidate planetary systems that were observed by multiple K2 mission campaigns. One of these systems is a multiplanet system with four candidate planets; we present new period constraints for two planets in this system. In the other five systems, only one transit is observed in each campaign, and we derive period constraints from this new data. The period distributions are highly multimodal resulting from missed potential transits in the gap between observations. Each peak in the distribution corresponds to transits at an integer harmonic of the two observed transits. We further detail a generalized procedure to constrain the period for planets with multiple observations with intervening gaps. Because long-period photometrically discovered planets are rare, these systems are interesting targets for follow-up observations and confirmation. Specifically, all six systems are bright enough (V = 10.4-12.7) to be amenable to radial velocity follow-up. This work serves as a template for period constraints in a host of similar yet-to-be-discovered planets in long baseline, temporally gapped observations conducted by the TESS mission.

Deep underground environments are ideal for low background searches due to the attenuation of cosmic rays by passage through the earth. However, they are affected by backgrounds from γ-rays emitted by 40K and the 238U and 232Th decay chains in the surrounding rock. The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will search for dark matter particle interactions with a liquid xenon TPC located within the Davis campus at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, Lead, South Dakota, at the 4850-foot level. In order to characterise the cavern background, in-situ γ-ray measurements were taken with a sodium iodide detector in various locations and with lead shielding. The integral count rates (0–3300 keV) varied from 596 Hz to 1355 Hz for unshielded measurements, corresponding to a total flux from the cavern walls of 1.9 ± 0.4 γ cm−2s−1. The resulting activity in the walls of the cavern can be characterised as 220 ± 60 Bq/kg of 40K, 29 ± 15 Bq/kg of 238U, and 13 ± 3 Bq/kg of 232Th.

LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) is a next-generation dark matter direct detection experiment that will operate 4850 feet underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Using a two-phase xenon detector with an active mass of 7 tonnes, LZ will search primarily for low-energy interactions with weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), which are hypothesized to make up the dark matter in our galactic halo. In this paper, the projected WIMP sensitivity of LZ is presented based on the latest background estimates and simulations of the detector. For a 1000 live day run using a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, LZ is projected to exclude at 90% confidence level spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross sections above 1.4×10-48 cm2 for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP. Additionally, a 5σ discovery potential is projected, reaching cross sections below the exclusion limits of recent experiments. For spin-dependent WIMP-neutron(-proton) scattering, a sensitivity of 2.3×10-43 cm2 (7.1×10-42 cm2) for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP is expected. With underground installation well underway, LZ is on track for commissioning at SURF in 2020.

We present two searches for IceCube neutrino events coincident with 28 fast radio bursts (FRBs) and 1 repeating FRB. The first improves on a previous IceCube analysis - searching for spatial and temporal correlation of events with FRBs at energies greater than roughly 50 GeV - by increasing the effective area by an order of magnitude. The second is a search for temporal correlation of MeV neutrino events with FRBs. No significant correlation is found in either search; therefore, we set upper limits on the time-integrated neutrino flux emitted by FRBs for a range of emission timescales less than one day. These are the first limits on FRB neutrino emission at the MeV scale, and the limits set at higher energies are an order-of-magnitude improvement over those set by any neutrino telescope.

In this paper we describe the first results of IceAct, a compact imaging air-Cherenkov telescope operating in coincidence with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory (IceCube) at the geographic South Pole. An array of IceAct telescopes (referred to as the IceAct project) is under consideration as part of the IceCube-Gen2 extension to IceCube. Surface detectors in general will be a powerful tool in IceCube-Gen2 for distinguishing astrophysical neutrinos from the dominant backgrounds of cosmic-ray induced atmospheric muons and neutrinos: the IceTop array is already in place as part of IceCube, but has a high energy threshold. Although the duty cycle will be lower for the IceAct telescopes than the present IceTop tanks, the IceAct telescopes may prove to be more effective at lowering the detection threshold for air showers. Additionally, small imaging air-Cherenkov telescopes in combination with IceTop, the deep IceCube detector or other future detector systems might improve measurements of the composition of the cosmic ray energy spectrum. In this paper we present measurements of a first 7-pixel imaging air Cherenkov telescope demonstrator, proving the capability of this technology to measure air showers at the South Pole in coincidence with IceTop and the deep IceCube detector.

Despite the fundamental importance of soil temperature for Earth's carbon and energy budgets, ecosystem functioning, and agricultural production, studies of climate change impacts on soil processes have mainly relied on air temperatures, assuming they are accurate proxies for soil temperatures. We evaluated changes in soil temperature, moisture, and air temperature predicted over the 21st century from 14 Earth system models. The model ensemble predicted a global mean soil warming of 2.3 ± 0.7 and 4.5 ± 1.1 °C at 100-cm depth by the end of the 21st century for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Soils at 100 cm warmed at almost exactly the same rate as near-surface (~1 cm) soils. Globally, soil warming was slightly slower than air warming above it, and this difference increased over the 21st century. Regionally, soil warming kept pace with air warming in tropical and arid regions but lagged air warming in colder regions. Thus, air warming is not necessarily a good proxy for soil warming in cold regions where snow and ice impede the direct transfer of sensible heat from the atmosphere to soil. Despite this effect, high-latitude soils were still projected to warm faster than elsewhere, albeit at slower rates than surface air above them. When compared with observations, the models were able to capture soil thermal dynamics in most biomes, but some failed to recreate thermal properties in permafrost regions. Particularly in cold regions, using soil warming rather than air warming projections may improve predictions of temperature-sensitive soil processes.

The Majorana Collaboration has assembled an array of high purity Ge detectors to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay in 76Ge with the goal of establishing the required background and scalability of a Ge-based next-generation ton-scale experiment. The Majorana Demonstrator consists of 44 kg of high-purity Ge (HPGe) detectors (30 kg enriched in 76Ge) with a low-noise p-Type point contact (PPC) geometry. The detectors are split between two modules which are contained in a single lead and high-purity copper shield at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. Following a commissioning run that started in June 2015, the full detector array has been acquiring data since August 2016. We will discuss the status of the Majorana Demonstrator and initial results from the first physics run; including current background estimates, exotic low-energy physics searches, projections on the physics reach of the Demonstrator, and implications for a ton-scale Ge-based neutrinoless double-beta decay search.

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is an experiment constructed to search for neutrinoless double-beta decays in germanium-76 and to demonstrate the feasibility to deploy a ton-scale experiment in a phased and modular fashion. It consists of two modular arrays of natural and 76Ge-enriched germanium detectors totaling 44.1kg (29.7kg enriched detectors), located at the 4850' level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Data taken with this setup since summer 2015 at different construction stages of the experiment show a clear reduction of the observed background index around the ROI for 0νββ-decay search due to improvements in shielding. We discuss the statistical approaches to search for a νββ-signal and derive the physics sensitivity for an expected exposure of 10kg• y from enriched detectors using a profile likelihood based hypothesis test in combination with toy Monte Carlo data.

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is a 76Ge-based neutrinoless double-beta decay (0νββ) experiment. Staged at the 4850 ft level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility, the DEMONSTRATOR operates an array of high-purity p-Type point contact Ge detectors deployed within a graded passive shield and an active muon veto system. The present work concerns the two-neutrino double-beta decay mode (2νββ) of 76Ge. For Ge detectors, having superior energy resolution (0.1%), this mode poses negligible background to the 0νββ mode, even for a ton-scale experiment. However, the measurement of the 2νββ mode allows for careful systematics checks of active detector mass, enrichment fraction, and pulse shape discrimination cuts related to both the 0νββ and 2νββ decay modes. A precision measurement of the 2νββ shape also allows searches for spectral distortions, possibly indicative of new physics, including 0νββχ. Work is underway to construct a full experimental background model enabling a Bayesian fit to the measured energy spectrum and extraction of a precise 2νββ spectrum and half-life.

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is an experiment constructed to search for neutrinoless double-beta decays in germanium-76 and to demonstrate the feasibility to deploy a ton-scale experiment in a phased and modular fashion. It consists of two modular arrays of natural and 76Ge-enriched germanium p-Type point contact detectors totaling 44.1 kg, located at the 4850' level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. The DEMONSTRATOR uses custom high voltage cables to bias the detectors, as well as custom signal cables and connectors to read out the charge deposited at each detectors point contact. These low-mass cables and connectors must meet stringent radiopurity requirements while being subjected to thermal and mechanical stress. A number of issues have been identified with the currently installed cables and connectors. An improved set of cables and connectors for the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR are being developed with the aim of increasing their overall reliability and connectivity. We will discuss some of the issues encountered with the current cables and connectors as well as our improved designs and their initial performance.

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is an experiment constructed to search for neutrinoless double-beta decays in germanium-76 and to demonstrate the feasibility to deploy a large-scale experiment in a phased and modular fashion. It consists of two modular arrays of natural and 76 Ge-enriched germanium detectors totalling 44.1 kg, located at the 4850' level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Any neutrinoless double-beta decay search requires a thorough understanding of the background and the signal energy spectra. The various techniques employed to ensure the integrity of the measured spectra are discussed. Data collection is monitored with a thorough set of checks, and subsequent careful analysis is performed to qualify the data for higher level physics analysis. Instrumental background events are tagged for removal, and problematic channels are removed from consideration as necessary.

Background and aimsPendulous flowers (due to a flexible pedicel) are a common, convergent trait of hummingbird-pollinated flowers. However, the role of flexible pedicels remains uncertain despite several functional hypotheses. Here we present and test the 'lever action hypothesis': flexible pedicels allow pendulous flowers to move upwards from all sides, pushing the stigma and anthers against the underside of the feeding hummingbird regardless of which nectary is being visited.MethodsTo test whether this lever action increased pollination success, we wired emasculated flowers of serpentine columbine, Aquilegia eximia, to prevent levering and compared pollination success of immobilized flowers with emasculated unwired and wire controls.Key resultsSeed set was significantly lower in wire-immobilized flowers than unwired control and wire control flowers. Video analysis of visits to wire-immobilized and unwired flowers demonstrated that birds contacted the stigmas and anthers of immobilized flowers less often than those of flowers with flexible pedicels.ConclusionsWe conclude that flexible pedicels permit the levering of reproductive structures onto a hovering bird. Hummingbirds, as uniquely large, hovering pollinators, differ from flies or bees which are too small to cause levering of flowers while hovering. Thus, flexible pedicels may be an adaptation to hummingbird pollination, in particular due to hummingbird size. We further speculate that this mechanism is effective only in radially symmetric flowers; in contrast, zygomorphic hummingbird-pollinated flowers are usually more or less horizontally oriented rather than having pendulous flowers and flexible pedicels.

Article 25 of the United Nations' Universal Declaration of Human Rights enshrines the right to health and well-being for every individual. However, universal access to high-quality healthcare remains the purview of a handful of wealthy nations. This is no more apparent than in peri-operative care, where an estimated five billion individuals lack access to safe, affordable and timely surgical care. Delivery of surgery and anaesthesia in low-resource environments presents unique challenges that, when unaddressed, result in limited access to low-quality care. Current peri-operative research and clinical guidance often fail to acknowledge these system-level deficits and therefore have limited applicability in low-resource settings. In this manuscript, the authors priority-set the need for equitable access to high-quality peri-operative care and analyse the system-level contributors to excess peri-operative mortality rates, a key marker of quality of care. To provide examples of how research and investment may close the equity gap, a modified Delphi method was adopted to curate and appraise interventions which may, with subsequent research and evaluation, begin to address the barriers to high-quality peri-operative care in low- and middle-income countries.

Accurate methods for determining the duration of HIV infection at the individual level are valuable in many settings, including many critical research studies and in clinical practice (especially for acute infection). Since first published in 2003, the 'Fiebig staging system' has been used as the primary way of classifying early HIV infection into five sequential stages based on HIV test result patterns in newly diagnosed individuals. However, Fiebig stages can only be assigned to individuals who produce both a negative and a positive test result on the same day, on specific pairs of tests of varying 'sensitivity'. Further, in the past 16 years HIV-testing technology has evolved substantially, and three of the five key assays used to define Fiebig stages are no longer widely used. To address these limitations, we developed an improved and more general framework for estimating the duration of HIV infection by interpreting any combination of diagnostic test results, whether obtained on single or multiple days, into an estimated date of detectable infection, or EDDI. A key advantage of the EDDI method over Fiebig staging is that it allows for the generation of a point estimate, as well as an associated credibility interval for the date of first detectable infection, for any person who has at least one positive and one negative HIV test of any kind. The tests do not have to be run on the same day; they do not have to be run during the acute phase of infection and the method does not rely on any special pairing of tests to define 'stages' of infection. The size of the interval surrounding the EDDI (and therefore the precision of the estimate itself) depends largely on the length of time between negative and positive tests. The EDDI approach is also flexible, seamlessly incorporating any assay for which there is a reasonable diagnostic delay estimate. An open-source, free online tool includes a user-updatable curated database of published diagnostic delays. HIV diagnostics have evolved tremendously since that original publication more than 15 years ago, and it is time to similarly evolve the methods used to estimate timing of infection. The EDDI method is a flexible and rigorous way to estimate the timing of HIV infection in a continuously evolving diagnostic landscape.

Neutrinoless double beta decay searches play a major role in determining neutrino properties, in particular the Majorana or Dirac nature of the neutrino and the absolute scale of the neutrino mass. The consequences of these searches go beyond neutrino physics, with implications for Grand Unification and leptogenesis. The Majorana Collaboration is assembling a low-background array of high purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors to search for neutrinoless double-beta decay in 76Ge. The Majorana Demonstrator, which is currently being constructed and commissioned at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, will contain 44 kg (30 kg enriched in 76Ge) of HPGe detectors. Its primary goal is to demonstrate the scalability and background required for a tonne-scale Ge experiment. This is accomplished via a modular design and projected background of less than 3 cnts/tonne-yr in the region of interest. The experiment is currently taking data with the first of its enriched detectors.

In 21-cm cosmology, precision calibration is key to the separation of the neutral hydrogen signal from very bright but spectrally smooth astrophysical foregrounds. The Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA), an interferometer specialized for 21-cm cosmology and now under construction in South Africa, was designed to be largely calibrated using the self-consistency of repeated measurements of the same interferometric modes. This technique, known as redundant-baseline calibration resolves most of the internal degrees of freedom in the calibration problem. It assumes, however, on antenna elements with identical primary beams placed precisely on a redundant grid. In this work, we review the detailed implementation of the algorithms enabling redundant-baseline calibration and report results with HERA data.We quantify the effects of real-world non-redundancy and how they compare to the idealized scenario in which redundant measurements differ only in their noise realizations. Finally, we study how non-redundancy can produce spurious temporal structure in our calibration solutions-both in data and in simulations-and present strategies for mitigating that structure.

Dispersal of benthic species in the sea is mediated primarily through small, vulnerable larvae that must survive minutes to months as members of the plankton community while being transported by strong, dynamic currents. As climate change alters ocean conditions, the dispersal of these larvae will be affected, with pervasive ecological and evolutionary consequences. We review the impacts of oceanic changes on larval transport, physiology, and behavior. We then discuss the implications for population connectivity and recruitment and evaluate life history strategies that will affect susceptibility to the effects of climate change on their dispersal patterns, with implications for understanding selective regimes in a future ocean. We find that physical oceanographic changes will impact dispersal by transporting larvae in different directions or inhibiting their movements while changing environmental factors, such as temperature, pH, salinity, oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, and turbidity, will affect the survival of larvae and alter their behavior. Reduced dispersal distance may make local adaptation more likely in well-connected populations with high genetic variation while reduced dispersal success will lower recruitment with implications for fishery stocks. Increased dispersal may spur adaptation by increasing genetic diversity among previously disconnected populations as well as increasing the likelihood of range expansions. We hypothesize that species with planktotrophic (feeding), calcifying, or weakly swimming larvae with specialized adult habitats will be most affected by climate change. We also propose that the adaptive value of retentive larval behaviors may decrease where transport trajectories follow changing climate envelopes and increase where transport trajectories drive larvae toward increasingly unsuitable conditions. Our holistic framework, combined with knowledge of regional ocean conditions and larval traits, can be used to produce powerful predictions of expected impacts on larval dispersal as well as the consequences for connectivity, range expansion, or recruitment. Based on our findings, we recommend that future studies take a holistic view of dispersal incorporating biological and oceanographic impacts of climate change rather than solely focusing on oceanography or physiology. Genetic and paleontological techniques can be used to examine evolutionary impacts of altered dispersal in a future ocean, while museum collections and expedition records can inform modern-day range shifts.

Key uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections revolve around the timing, direction, and magnitude of the carbon cycle feedback to climate change. This is especially true in carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems, where permafrost soils contain roughly one third of the world's soil carbon stocks, which are likely vulnerable to loss. Using an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models that reflect recent changes in the conceptual understanding of factors responsible for soil carbon persistence, we quantify potential soil carbon responses under two representative climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate that models disagree on the sign and magnitude of global soil changes through 2100, with disagreements primarily driven by divergent responses of Arctic systems. These results largely reflect different assumptions about the nature of soil carbon persistence and vulnerabilities, underscoring the challenges associated with setting allowable greenhouse gas emission targets that will limit global warming to 1.5°C.

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitationalwaves from the low-mass X-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model(HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-basedsearches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the$\mathcal{J}$-statistic, and by analysing data from Advanced LIGO's secondobserving run. In the frequency range searched, from $60$ to$650\,\mathrm{Hz}$, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At$194.6\,\mathrm{Hz}$, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upperlimit on gravitational wave strain (at 95\% confidence) of $h_0^{95\%} = 3.47\times 10^{-25}$ when marginalising over source inclination angle. This is themost sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designedto be robust in the presence of spin wandering.

PurposeSchooling is associated with a lower risk of Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in adolescent girls and young women, but there is little understanding of the pathways underlying this relationship.MethodsWe used data from adolescent girls and young women in South Africa enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 068 study. We tested a structural equation model where individual household and community education measures were associated directly and indirectly with incident HSV-2 through HIV knowledge, future aspirations, age-disparate partnerships, sex in the last 12 months, and condomless sex.ResultsCommunity, household, and individual measures of schooling were all associated with incident HSV-2 infection through mediated pathways that increased the likelihood of having sex. Low school attendance (

The Belle II detector will provide a major step forward in precision heavy flavor physics, quarkonium and exotic states, searches for dark sectors, and many other areas. The sensitivity to a large number of key observables can be improved by about an order of magnitude compared to the current measurements, and up to two orders in very clean search measurements. This increase in statistical precision arises not only due to the increased luminosity, but also from improved detector efficiency and precision for many channels. Many of the most interesting observables tend to have very small theoretical uncertainties that will therefore not limit the physics reach. This book has presented many new ideas for measurements, both to elucidate the nature of current anomalies seen in flavor, and to search for new phenomena in a plethora of observables that will become accessible with the Belle II dataset. The simulation used for the studiesinthis book was state ofthe artat the time, though weare learning a lot more about the experiment during the commissioning period. The detector is in operation, and working spectacularly well.

Vegetation tolerance to drought depends on an array of site-specific environmental and plant physiological factors. This tolerance is poorly understood for many forest types despite its importance for predicting and managing vegetation stress. We analyzed the relationships between precipitation variability and forest die-off in California's Sierra Nevada and introduce a new measure of drought tolerance that emphasizes plant access to subsurface moisture buffers. We applied this metric to California's severe 2012-2015 drought, and show that it predicted the patterns of tree mortality. We then examined future climate scenarios, and found that the probability of droughts that lead to widespread die-off increases threefold by the end of the 21st century. Our analysis shows that tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada will likely accelerate in the coming decades and that forests in the Central and Northern Sierra Nevada that largely escaped mortality in 2012-2015 are vulnerable to die-off.

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time-evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.

Galaxies and galaxy groups located along the line of sight towards gravitationally lensed quasars produce high-order perturbations of the gravitational potential at the lens position. When these perturbation are too large, they can induce a systematic error on H0 of a few per cent if the lens system is used for cosmological inference and the perturbers are not explicitly accounted for in the lens model. In this work, we present a detailed characterization of the environment of the lens system WFI 2033−4723 (zsrc = 1.662, zlens = 0.6575), one of the core targets of the H0LiCOW project for which we present cosmological inferences in a companion paper. We use the Gemini and ESO-Very Large telescopes to measure the spectroscopic redshifts of the brightest galaxies towards the lens, and use the ESO-MUSE integral field spectrograph to measure the velocity-dispersion of the lens (σlos = 250+−1521 km s−1) and of several nearby galaxies. In addition, we measure photometric redshifts and stellar masses of all galaxies down to i < 23 mag, mainly based on Dark Energy Survey imaging (DR1). Our new catalogue, complemented with literature data, more than doubles the number of known galaxy spectroscopic redshifts in the direct vicinity of the lens, expanding to 116 (64) the number of spectroscopic redshifts for galaxies separated by less than 3 arcmin (2 arcmin) from the lens. Using the flexion-shift as a measure of the amplitude of the gravitational perturbation, we identify two galaxy groups and three galaxies that require specific attention in the lens models. The ESO MUSE data enable us to measure the velocity-dispersions of three of these galaxies. These results are essential for the cosmological inference analysis presented in Rusu et al.

Low-background searches for astrophysical neutrino sources anywhere in the sky can be performed using cascade events induced by neutrinos of all flavors interacting in IceCube with energies as low as ∼1 TeV. Previously we showed that, even with just two years of data, the resulting sensitivity to sources in the southern sky is competitive with IceCube and ANTARES analyses using muon tracks induced by charge current muon neutrino interactions - especially if the neutrino emission follows a soft energy spectrum or originates from an extended angular region. Here, we extend that work by adding five more years of data, significantly improving the cascade angular resolution, and including tests for point-like or diffuse Galactic emission to which this data set is particularly well suited. For many of the signal candidates considered, this analysis is the most sensitive of any experiment to date. No significant clustering was observed, and thus many of the resulting constraints are the most stringent to date. In this paper we will describe the improvements introduced in this analysis and discuss our results in the context of other recent work in neutrino astronomy.

The Majorana Demonstrator is searching for neutrinoless double-beta decay in 76Ge with two modular arrays of natural and 76Ge-enriched germanium detectors. It is located at the 4850' level of Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA, and its total mass of germanium detectors is 44.1 kg, of which 29.7 kg is enriched. The analysis of the first 26 kg-yr of data provides an unprecedented energy resolution of 0.13% in the region of interest at 2039 keV and a background level of 15.4 ±2.0 counts/(FWHM t yr). It establishes the lower limit of the half-life of neutrinoless double beta decay as 2.7 1025 yr in 76Ge at 90% CL. This analysis will be summarized here with an emphasis on the energy determination.

Efficient treatment of systematic uncertainties that depend on a large number of nuisance parameters is a persistent difficulty in particle physics and astrophysics experiments. Where low-level effects are not amenable to simple parameterization or re-weighting, analyses often rely on discrete simulation sets to quantify the effects of nuisance parameters on key analysis observables. Such methods may become computationally untenable for analyses requiring high statistics Monte Carlo with a large number of nuisance degrees of freedom, especially in cases where these degrees of freedom parameterize the shape of a continuous distribution. In this paper we present a method for treating systematic uncertainties in a computationally efficient and comprehensive manner using a single simulation set with multiple and continuously varied nuisance parameters. This method is demonstrated for the case of the depth-dependent effective dust distribution within the IceCube Neutrino Telescope.

The NOvA experiment has seen a 4.4σ signal of ν[over ¯]_{e} appearance in a 2 GeV ν[over ¯]_{μ} beam at a distance of 810 km. Using 12.33×10^{20} protons on target delivered to the Fermilab NuMI neutrino beamline, the experiment recorded 27 ν[over ¯]_{μ}→ν[over ¯]_{e} candidates with a background of 10.3 and 102 ν[over ¯]_{μ}→ν[over ¯]_{μ} candidates. This new antineutrino data are combined with neutrino data to measure the parameters |Δm_{32}^{2}|=2.48_{-0.06}^{+0.11}×10^{-3}  eV^{2}/c^{4} and sin^{2}θ_{23} in the ranges from (0.53-0.60) and (0.45-0.48) in the normal neutrino mass hierarchy. The data exclude most values near δ_{CP}=π/2 for the inverted mass hierarchy by more than 3σ and favor the normal neutrino mass hierarchy by 1.9σ and θ_{23} values in the upper octant by 1.6σ.

Understanding the origin and dynamics of hadron structure and in turn that of atomic nuclei is a central goal of nuclear physics. This challenge entails the questions of how does the roughly 1GeV mass-scale that characterizes atomic nuclei appear; why does it have the observed value; and, enigmatically, why are the composite Nambu-Goldstone (NG) bosons in quantum chromodynamics (QCD) abnormally light in comparison? In this perspective, we provide an analysis of the mass budget of the pion and proton in QCD; discuss the special role of the kaon, which lies near the boundary between dominance of strong and Higgs mass-generation mechanisms; and explain the need for a coherent effort in QCD phenomenology and continuum calculations, in exa-scale computing as provided by lattice QCD, and in experiments to make progress in understanding the origins of hadron masses and the distribution of that mass within them. We compare the unique capabilities foreseen at the electron-ion collider (EIC) with those at the hadron-electron ring accelerator (HERA), the only previous electron-proton collider; and describe five key experimental measurements, enabled by the EIC and aimed at delivering fundamental insights that will generate concrete answers to the questions of how mass and structure arise in the pion and kaon, the Standard Model's NG modes, whose surprisingly low mass is critical to the evolution of our Universe.