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The changing climate inflicts ecological, economic, social, and cultural consequences that are interconnected and mutually reinforcing. Very often, this happens via interlinked critical infrastructures. Preparing these for natural hazards and carrying out risk assessments that consider their cascading effects on human livelihoods and well-being is a challenging task. Crisis management institutions can benefit from forecasts based on the idea of systemic risk. This study is based on stakeholder workshops, in which a systemic dynamic modelling method called the Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) was used to support contingency planning to identify the critical infrastructure-related factors, the vital functions in society, and to understand their interrelated nature. Together with the workshop participants (authorities and other service providers of critical infrastructures) we tested whether the CLD tool could help identify three types of indicators (threat factors, vulnerability, and resilience) that can help in assessing the risk level when a natural disaster hits. Our case study was a snowstorm, still a frequent phenomenon in the Nordic countries. This article describes and explains the possibilities and limitations of systemic dynamic modelling in contingency planning. Indicators describing the safety and security risks posed by natural hazards, as well as potential sources of data for these indicators, were identified. Identifying indicators that are relevant for anticipating interrelated and cascading effects offers valuable tools for risk assessment and security planning at operational and strategical levels.

Construction is a resource-intensive industry where a circular economy (CE) is essential to minimize global impacts and conserve natural resources. A CE achieves long-term sustainability by enabling materials to circulate along the critical supply chains. Accordingly, recent research has proposed a paradigm shift towards CE-based sustainability. However, uncertainties caused by fluctuating raw material prices, scarce materials, increasing demand, consumers’ expectations, lack of proper waste infrastructure, and the use of wrong recycling technologies all lead to complexities in the construction industry (CI). This research paper aims to determine the enablers of a CE for sustainable development in the CI. The system dynamics (SD) approach is utilized for modeling and simulation purposes to address the associated process complexity. First, using content analysis of pertinent literature, ten enablers of a CE for sustainable development in CI were identified. Then, causality among these enablers was identified via interviews and questionnaire surveys, leading to the development of the causal loop diagram (CLD) using systems thinking. The CLD for the 10 shortlisted enablers shows five reinforcing loops and one balancing loop. Furthermore, the CLD was used to develop an SD model with two stocks: “Organizational Incentive Schemes” and “Policy Support.” An additional stock (“Sustainable Development”) was created to determine the combined effect of all stocks. The model was simulated for five years. The findings show that policy support and organizational incentive schemes, among other enablers, are critical in implementing a CE for sustainable development in CI. The outcomes of this study can help CI practitioners to implement a CE in a way that drives innovation, boosts economic growth, and improves competitiveness.

Abstract Background Despite calls for the application of complex systems science in empirical studies of health promotion, there are very few examples. The aim of this paper was to use a complex systems approach to examine the key factors that influenced health promotion (HP) policy and practice in a multisectoral health system in Australia. Methods Within a qualitative case study, a schema was developed that incorporated HP goals, actions and strategies with WHO building blocks (leadership and governance, financing, workforce, services and information). The case was a multisectoral health system bounded in terms of geographical and governance structures and a history of support for HP. A detailed analysis of 20 state government strategic documents and interviews with 53 stakeholders from multiple sectors were completed. Based upon key findings and dominants themes, causal pathways and feedback loops were established. Finally, a causal loop diagram was created to visualise the complex array of feedback loops in the multisectoral health system that influenced HP policy and practice. Results The complexity of the multisectoral health system was clearly illustrated by the numerous feedback mechanisms that influenced HP policy and practice. The majority of feedback mechanisms in the causal loop diagram were vicious cycles that inhibited HP policy and practice, which need to be disrupted or changed for HP to thrive. There were some virtuous cycles that facilitated HP, which could be amplified to strengthen HP policy and practice. Leadership and governance at federal–state–local government levels figured prominently and this building block was interdependently linked to all others. Conclusion Creating a causal loop diagram enabled visualisation of the emergent properties of the case health system. It also highlighted specific leverage points at which HP policy and practice can be improved. This paper demonstrates the critical importance of leveraging leadership and governance for HP and adds urgency to the need for increased and strong advocacy efforts targeting all levels of government in multisectoral health systems.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex, multicausal disorder involving several spatiotemporal scales and scientific domains. While many studies focus on specific parts of this system, the complexity of AD is rarely studied as a whole. In this work, we apply systems thinking to map out known causal mechanisms and risk factors ranging from intracellular to psychosocial scales in sporadic AD. We report on the first systemic causal loop diagram (CLD) for AD, which is the result of an interdisciplinary group model building (GMB) process. The GMB was based on the input of experts from multiple domains and all proposed mechanisms were supported by scientific literature. The CLD elucidates interaction and feedback mechanisms that contribute to cognitive decline from midlife onward as described by the experts. As an immediate outcome, we observed several non-trivial reinforcing feedback loops involving factors at multiple spatial scales, which are rarely considered within the same theoretical framework. We also observed high centrality for modifiable risk factors such as social relationships and physical activity, which suggests they may be promising leverage points for interventions. This illustrates how a CLD from an interdisciplinary GMB process may lead to novel insights into complex disorders. Furthermore, the CLD is the first step in the development of a computational model for simulating the effects of risk factors on AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: System dynamics (SD) modelling can inform policy decisions under Thailand's Universal Health Coverage. We report on this thinking approach to Thailand's strategic health workforce planning for the next 20 years (2018-2037).Methods: A series of group model building (GMB) sessions involving 110 participants from multi-sectors of Thailand's health systems was conducted in 2017 and 2018. We facilitated policymakers, administrators, practitioners and other stakeholders to co-create a causal loop diagram (CLD) representing a shared understanding of why the health workforce's demands and supplies in Thailand were mismatched. A stock and flow diagram (SFD) was also co-created for testing the consequences of policy options by simulation modelling.Results: The simulation modelling found hospital utilisation created a vicious cycle of constantly increasing demands for hospital care and a constant shortage of healthcare providers. Moreover, hospital care was not designed for effectively dealing with the future demands of ageing populations and prevalent chronic illness. Hence, shifting emphasis to professions that can provide primary care, intermediate care, long-term care, palliative care, and end-of-life care can be more effective.Conclusions: Our SD modelling confirmed that shifting the care models to address the changing health demands can be a high-leverage policy of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term. of health workforce planning, although very difficult to implement in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply a system dynamics approach to develop the first literature-based causal loop diagram of systematic reflective practices in organizations. This article captures the underlying feedback mechanisms involved in the process of reflection on experience in organizational settings. It identifies the drivers and obstacles to reflective practices that impact learning and performance in organizations. Past studies have highlighted the significant impact of “reflection on experience” on learning and performance and consider it to be a critical best practice in organizations. However, no studies have addressed the underlying mechanisms of the processes of reflection on experience and why organizations fail to sustain reflection. Organizations have failed in realizing the immense latent potential of these practices due to a lack of a deep understanding of reflective practices. Our article aims to enhance understanding of the system-level mechanisms that cause failures in using reflection on experience. The mechanisms that reinforce or impede the practice of reflection on experience, mapped in our causal loop diagram, can be used as a roadmap to enhance organizations' learning and performance outcomes by systematically improving and increasing reflective practices. We provide multiple insights into the reasons why many organizations fail to sustain reflection and offer recommendations for practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An identification of strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) factors remains imperative for enabling a successful Smart Campus transition. The absence of a structured approach for analyzing the relationships between these SWOT factors and the influence thereof on Smart Campus transitions negate effective implementation. This study leverages a systems thinking approach to bridge this gap. Data were collected through a stakeholder workshop within a University of Technology case study and analyzed using qualitative content analysis (QCA). This resulted in the establishment of SWOT factors affecting Smart Campus transitions. Systems thinking was utilized to analyze the relationships between these SWOT factors resulting in a causal loop diagram (CLD) highlighting extant interrelationships. A panel of experts drawn from the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and South Africa validated the relationships between the SWOT factors as elucidated in the CLD. Subsequently, a Smart Campus transition framework predicated on the CLD archetypes was developed. The framework provided a holistic approach to understanding the interrelationships between various SWOT factors influencing Smart Campus transitions. This framework remains a valuable tool for facilitating optimal strategic planning and management approaches by policy makers, academics, and implementers within the global Higher Education Institution (HEI) landscape for managing successful Smart Campus transition at the South African University of Technology (SAUoT) and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most ubiquitous information and communications technology (ICT) in the hands of the common man today is the mobile phone. Most existing literature on the impact of mobile phones in farming has examined the various components of the farming cycle in isolation, and failed to holistically account for the complex interactions and relationships between these components. In this study, we combine the strengths of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) and Systems Theory (ST) as a theoretical lens to understand the impact of mobile phone use in farming and its developmental contributions on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in post-insurgency northeast Nigeria. On the basis of empirical data and literature, we develop a qualitative system dynamics model depicting mobile phone use in farming. The main feedback loops show that the greatest bane to farming in the area is insecurity and climate variability. However, better access to information and communications afforded by mobile phones empowers farmers and enables them to overcome these vulnerabilities. The use of feedback loops in analysis provides rigour and depth to the findings due to their ability to demonstrate the interdependencies between system components. We contribute to knowledge and inform practice by extending the understanding of the impact of mobile phone use in farming through system dynmics modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addressed the complexity involved in integrating the causative risk factors influencing construction profitability. Most of the existing studies cover the individual effects of profitability influencing factors. Very few focus on the systematic impact without incorporating the complexity and associated dynamics, presenting a gap targeted by the current study. The current study aimed to assess causative interrelations and interdependencies between profitability influencing risk factors (PIRF), through systems thinking (ST) and system dynamics (SD) modeling. The SD approach was used to evaluate the integrated impacts on profitability-influencing risk categories (PIRC) in construction projects. The causative influencing factors affecting construction profitability were identified through a comprehensive literature review. These were ranked using content analysis, and categorized into significant issues. Through 250 structured surveys and 15 expert opinion meetings, the path for quantitative and qualitative evaluations was prepared. Following these investigations, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was established using the ST technique, and the integrated effect was quantified using SD modeling. The study finds the rising cost of material, supply chain process, payment issues, planning and scheduling problems, financial difficulties, and effective control of manpower and equipment resources as the most critical PIRFs. The integrated effects of PIRFs on PIRC were quantified using SD modeling. This study helps field professionals with profitability-influencing factors, diagnosing issues, and integrating impacts regarding decision-making and policy formulation. For researchers, it presents a list of factors that can be investigated in detail, and the holistic interrelationships established.

It is argued that there are interconnected and dynamic factors that influence the sustainability of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services in developing countries. Five sustainability factors are often mentioned by literature: financial, institutional, environmental, technical, and social (FIETS) factors. This article aims to understand the interaction of those five sustainability factors in the context of WASH services in Indonesia. A system approach, in the form of a "modified" causal loop diagram, was utilized to analyze this interaction. The strength of influence from one factor to others were obtained from small surveys of 16 WASH practitioners and experts from international and national non-governmental organizations (NGOs) based in Indonesia and national government institutions related to WASH. It was found that institutional factor is the "leverage" factor, i.e., the most influential and least dependent, in the WASH services system in Indonesia. It means that WASH institutional strengthening is necessary to sustain WASH services in Indonesia. Furthermore, the most important feedback loop is social–WASH services. This depicts the importance of the bi-directional effect of WASH services and the social conditions of the community, i.e., the more supportive the community is, the higher the likelihood of the sustainability of WASH services, and then positively influence back the social conditions of the community. Moreover, the relationship between factors varies across context or location. Finally, this paper shows that the sustainability of WASH services involves complex interactions of the sustainability factors and understanding these interactions is critical to sustaining the WASH services or program in rural Indonesia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising number of COVID-19 cases and economic implications of lockdown measures indicate the tricky balancing act policy makers face as they implement the subsequent phases of 'unlock'. We develop a model to examine how lockdown and social distancing measures have influenced the behavioral conduct of people. The current situation highlights that policy makers need to focus on bringing awareness and social restraint among people rather than going for stringent lockdown measures. We believe this work will help the policy makers gain insights into the troubled COVID-19 times ahead, and based on the estimates, they can frame policies to navigate these wild waves in the best possible way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitioning towards more plant-based protein diets is essential for public and planetary health. Current research about consumption practices of protein sources provides limited insight in the multidisciplinary nature and interconnectivity of the food environment. This study aimed to collect mental models of review authors by synthesizing both their implicit and explicit system views into an overarching system view. Published reviews were used to select participants and identify variables that explain the protein transition in relation to the food environment. To overcome differences in disciplines and scale levels (e.g. individual, interpersonal, environmental), variables were organized according to the Determinants of Nutrition and Eating Framework. Eight review authors shared their mental models in an interview. Participants were asked to construct a causal loop diagram (CLD), a tool proven valuable in making one's ontology explicit to others. Implicit system views in narrative were converted into CLDs using a coding framework. The overarching system view suggests that a multitude of feedback loops sustain current consumption patterns of protein sources, for example by reinforcement through habit, availability and peer support. Several aspects require further research, such as variable relationships that were subject to disagreement and the lack of reciprocity between the physical and social elements of the food environment. In addition, knowledge gaps were exposed, including long-term behaviour and interaction of multiple variables. As a boundary object, the overarching system view can facilitate the direction of future research. The findings underscore the interconnected nature of many disparate elements within the food environment, stressing the need for holistic methods like systems thinking. These are essential in developing a systemic understanding and facilitating the transition towards more plant-based diets., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Drought is a major cause of crop failure and livelihood insecurity, affecting millions of people across the world. A changing climate, increasing population and economic growth are exacerbating water shortages, further interrupting agricultural production. Assessing and minimizing the impacts of drought require a thorough understanding of the interrelationships and interactions between the climate system, ecosystems and human systems. In this paper, we apply causal loop modelling grounded in systems thinking theory to examine the interdependencies and feedback processes among factors associated with drought that impact crop production using a case study of Robusta coffee production systems in Viet Nam – the world’s second-largest coffee producing country. Our model, underpinned by qualitative data from consultation with a range of stakeholders, indicates that water depletion affecting coffee cultivation is not solely attributed to rainfall insufficiency but an outcome of complex interactions between climate and socio-economic systems. Our analysis highlights that uncontrollable coffee expansion, largely at the expense of forested areas, is partly the unintended consequence of policy decisions, including those encouraging migration and perennial crop development. Growing water demand in the region, including the demand for irrigation water driven by the ever-increasing area under coffee cultivation, as well as inefficient irrigation practices are placing significant pressure on water resources. A changing climate may exacerbate the problem, further impacting coffee cultivation, unless adaptation practices occur. A number of potential interventions are suggested, including explicit zoning of coffee-growing areas; awareness raising for wide adoption of optimal irrigation practices; converting Robusta coffee monocultures to diversified systems; and strictly protecting existing forests coupled with afforestation and reforestation. These interventions should be simultaneously implemented in order to adequately address drought and water scarcity for coffee production and build resilience to climate and market risks.

The prevalence of food insecurity (FI) in United States households has fluctuated between 10% and 15% for the past two decades, well above the Healthy People 2030 goal. FI is associated with increased use of healthcare services and the prevalence of multiple health conditions. Our current efforts to address FI may be limited by measures that lack granularity, timeliness, and consideration of larger food access barriers (e.g., availability of food providers and lack of knowledge regarding where to obtain food). If the Healthy People 2030 goal of reducing FI to 6% is to be met, we need better and faster methods for monitoring and tracking FI in order to produce timely interventions. In this paper, we review key contributors of FI from an access barrier perspective, investigate the limitations of current FI measures, and explore how data from one nonprofit organization may enhance our understanding of FI and facilitate access to resources at the local level. We also propose a conceptual framework illustrating how nonprofit organizations may play an important role in understanding and addressing FI and its intertwined social needs, such as housing and healthcare problems.

Abstract: Traditionally, Inventory Holding Cost (IHC) is assumed to be a combination of several costs and determined by the summation of these cost components. Several authors have suggested that the value of IHC ranges between 12-50% of the procurement cost of an item. However, due to the absence of a generally acceptable methodology, many practitioners still determine this percentage based on estimates, benchmarks and intuition. Giving considerations to this reality, a mathematical model to determine the value of IHC using systems dynamics approach was developed. IHC was viewed holistically to identify relevant quantities, their interactions (static or dynamics), behaviour and consequences. A Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) was developed to establish the relationship among these quantities. Thereafter, CLD was transformed into a Flow Diagram (FD). FD was used to formulate a set of systems dynamics equations to obtain IHC. The interaction among fraction of goods ordered per month (FOM), fraction sold per month (FSM) and fraction damaged per month (FDM) was simulated to obtain percentage values of IHC. The value of IHC obtained from the model and simulation analysis ranges between 22.58-25.39% of the item held in stock. Based on these results, it is concluded that the developed model can be used for simulation and system analysis of the holding cost component of an inventory system under different contextual settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the system thinking approach was used to explain the challenges of the beef value chain in Mashhad, Iran. Due to the complexity of the system and its dynamic nature, rich picture and CATWOE analysis were used to structure the problem. After structuring the problem, the relationships between the chain actors were drawn in the causal loop diagram. Then, the system archetypes were identified. Results showed that the dynamics of this value chain could be explained by limit to growth, fixes that fail and shifting the burden archetypes. The results indicated that the beef import policy has not been effective to regulate the domestic market. Also, it can be concluded that beef cattle production in Mashhad is largely dependent on sustainable supply of livestock feed. So, enhancing cattle production requires policy making to increase availability of livestock feed. Therefore, it is recommended to plan for increasing its production through changing irrigation system and using early maturing and drought-tolerant varieties of corn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, demand-side innovation policies for securing new driving-force for economic growth centered on developed countries, especially on the importance of public procurement for innovation, (PPI) are emphasized. Although the previous studies on PPI have presented various innovations and economic effects of PPI, they are still focused on specific case-based analysis, failing to provide implications for policy decision-making. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the economy-wide effects of PPI within the innovation system in generalized terms including technology, market, institution-related elements. To be specific, this study reveals direct and indirect impact channels within the innovation system incorporating demand-pull and technology-push effects. In addition, we propose four different types of PPI in terms of the policy impact channels and analyze electric vehicle (EV) PPI case in Korea using this proposed taxonomy. This study has contributions both on academic research and policy decision-making dimensions, by stressing out the systemic perspective to understand the potential impact mechanisms across the innovation system induced by the implementation of PPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patent and proprietary medicine vendors (PPMVs) are widespread in communities and can potentially be used to expand access to routine immunization especially in underserved areas. In this study, we aimed to assess their readiness to implement routine immunization in Kano, Nigeria and identify factors associated with it. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of PPMVs aged 18 years and above in Kano metropolis, Nigeria, using cluster sampling technique. A 10-item Likert scale-based measure was used to estimate readiness score. The relationship between selected factors and readiness score was examined using multilevel linear modeling technique. A total of 455 PPMVs with median age of 36 years participated in the study. The median raw score for readiness was 4.7 (IQR: 4.3 – 4-8) (maximum obtainable was 5). The mean readiness score (obtained through factor analysis) was 5.28 (SD: 0.58). Readiness score was associated with factors such as knowledge of immunization and task demand, engagement by other public health programs among others. This study demonstrated the feasibility of measuring the level of readiness for implementing routine immunization among PPMVs. Given the high level of readiness, policy makers should consider the possibility of expanding access to immunization through PPMVs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Automation technology is emerging, but the adoption rate of autonomous vehicles (AV) will depend upon how policymakers and the government address various challenges such as public acceptance and infrastructure development. This study follows a five-stage method to understand these barriers to AV adoption. First, based on a literature review followed by discussions with experts, ten barriers are identified. Second, the opinions of eighteen experts from industry and academia regarding inter-relations between these barriers are recorded. Third, a multicriteria decision making technique, the grey-based Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Grey-DEMATEL), is applied to characterize the structure of relationships between the barriers. Fourth, robustness of the results is tested using sensitivity analysis. Fifth, the key results are depicted in a causal loop diagram (CLD), a systems thinking approach, to comprehend cause-and-effect relationships between the barriers. The results indicate that the lack of customer acceptance (LCA) is the most prominent barrier, the one which should be addressed at the highest priority. The CLD suggests that LCA can be mitigated by addressing two other prominent and more tangible barriers – lack of industry standards and the absence of regulations and certifications. The study's contribution lies in demonstrating that the barriers to AV adoption do not exist in isolation but are linked with each other in overlapping loops of cause and effect relationships. These insights can help different stakeholders in prioritizing their endeavors to expedite AV adoption. From the methodological perspective, this is the first study in the transportation literature that integrates Grey-DEMATEL with systems thinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is an entire system of its own, characterized as complex and dynamic, necessitating the need for sustainability considerations. To effectively manage tourism, it is vital to comprehend the underlying system structures and the feedback mechanisms that influence how tourism works over time. Our main purpose is to establish the cause–effect relationship between and among sustainable tourism variables using the tools of systems thinking. In our causal loop diagram, we highlight that ecotourism creates profitable businesses and local jobs, which will motivate stakeholders to practice sustainability thereby driving ecotourism to higher levels. We also underscore that tourist satisfaction would stimulate increased tourist arrivals that will create environmental stress, threatening sustainability. Hence, to ensure sustainability, regulation must mitigate the unintended consequences that undermine sustainability, through community leadership and capacity management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since the advent of democracy, the South African government has been putting charters, policies, strategies and plans in place in an effort to strengthen public health system performance and enhance service delivery. However, public health programme performance and outcomes remained poor while the burden of disease increased. This was also the case in the Free State Province, where major public health system challenges occurred around 2012. Assessment was necessary in order to inform health system strengthening.Methods: The study entailed a multi-method situation appraisal utilising information collated in 44 reports generated in 2013 through presentations by unit managers, subdistrict assessments by district clinical specialist teams, and group discussions with district managers, clinic supervisors, primary health care managers and chief executive and clinical officers of hospitals. These data were validated through community and provincial health indabas including non-governmental organisations, councils and academics, as well as unannounced facility visits involving discussions with a wide range of functionaries and patients. The reports were reviewed using the World Health Organization health system building blocks as a priori themes with subsequent identification of emerging subthemes. Data from the different methods employed were triangulated in a causal loop diagram showing the complex interactions between the components of an (in) effective health system.Results: The major subthemes or challenges that emerged under each a priori theme included: firstly, under the 'service delivery' a priori theme, 'fragmentation of health services' (42 reports); secondly, under the 'health workforce' a priori theme, 'staff shortages' (39 reports); thirdly, under the 'health financing' a priori theme, 'financial/cash-flow problems' (39 reports); fourthly, under the 'leadership and governance' a priori theme, 'risk to patient care' (38 reports); fifthly, under the 'medical products/technologies' a priori theme, 'dysfunctional communication technology' (27 reports); and, sixthly, under the 'information' a priori theme, 'poor information management' (26 reports).Conclusion: The major overall public health system challenges reported by stakeholders involved fragmentation of services, staff shortages and financial/cash-flow problems. In order to effect health systems strengthening there was particularly a need to improve integration and address human and financial deficiencies in this setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Australia, around 67% of adults and 25% of children (5-17 years) are currently overweight or obese (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 4364.0.55.001 - National Health Survey: First Results, 2017-18, 2018). The Campbelltown - Changing our Future study will translate 'a whole of system' approach, previously trialed in rural communities in Victoria and the Australian Capital Territoty, to Campbelltown Local Government Area (LGA), a socioeconomically and ethnically diverse urban community in south western Sydney, NSW.Methods: The study intervention will use a five-step approach; 1 - set up a childhood obesity monitoring system by collecting baseline data from children in primary schools across Campbelltown LGA to give a local context to the community when developing the systems map; 2 - key stakeholders develop systems maps which inform the development of the interventions; 3 - key stakeholders and community groups identify priority areas for action and form working groups; 4 - implementation of the interventions; 5 - evaluation of the interventions. The study will adopt a longitudinal pre/post design with repeated measures at baseline, 2 years and 4 years. Both qualitative and quantitative methods will be used to collect and analyse the data.Discussion: Addressing childhood overweight and obesity is complex and requires a multifaceted intervention. This approach has the capacity to impact a range of factors that influence childhood overweight and obesity utilising existing capacity of multiple partners with broad community reach. Findings will develop local responses which capture the complexity of obesity at a community level and further our understanding of the interrelationships and relative importance of local factors impacting childhood overweight and obesity. This study aims to provide evidence for systems methods and approaches suitable for adaption and scaling and may provide evidence of successful community intervention elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is recognized that change management is necessary for information technology implementation success. While there are a growing number of interorganizational systems (IOS) designed for the public, there is little study of and lack of clear guidelines on managing change related to their implementation. This research explores the phenomenon through the case study of a country-wide farecard system implemented in Singapore's public transportation system that involved several organizations and the public. Through the case analysis, we identified critical success factors (CSFs) for change management in IOS for the public and interrelated them using a causal loop diagram (CLD). These factors included refinements of existing CSFs identified from the literature as well as new CSFs from our case study. Our case analysis showed that communication through senior management and cooperation of affected organizations in the system implementation was able to overcome resistance to change in these organizations. We also found that while comprehensive publicity could initiate change in the public, a critical mass had to be built up for managing public change by coopting public opinion leaders as well. By interrelating CSFs identified in the case via a CLD, this study provides a preliminary theoretical framework for studying change management in IOS for the public and aims to guide practitioners in implementing such systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Garlic is one of the strategic food commodities in Indonesia. • Garlic imports continue to increase, the government is trying to minimise it. • Understanding garlic supply system in Indonesia's domestic market is important. • Stakeholder participation is important in system's modelling. • System archetypes help formulate local garlic development strategies. The debate surrounding the choice between self-producing or importing strategic food commodities becomes increasingly intriguing due to the complex dynamics of societies experiencing population growth and rising consumption. The case of garlic supply in Indonesia serves as an example. Despite Indonesia's efforts to enhance domestic production, the country still relies on imported garlic. Various government initiatives have been launched, but they have not succeeded in increasing production or reducing dependence on imports. Therefore, a more thorough analysis is required to comprehend the system's behaviour and the underlying causes hindering the achievement of targets. This study employs a systems thinking approach to examine the Indonesian garlic supply system. Through a participatory method involving key stakeholders in the garlic industry, we identify the problems inherent in the system that contribute to its behaviour. The primary issues impeding the growth of national garlic production are the influx of cheaper imported garlic and the increasing national demand. Additionally, factors like production inefficiencies and limited market penetration for locally produced garlic exacerbate these problems. By formulating dynamic hypotheses, we identify recurring patterns and propose areas for improvement. Furthermore, we offer recommendations pertaining to production, marketing, and import control. Our study illustrates how a system thinking approach can furnish recommendations for addressing persistent challenges in complex agro-industrial systems. We propose that our research serves as a reference for conducting comprehensive value chain analyses in intricate agricultural industries, particularly in developing countries where the need for importing strategic agricultural commodities still persists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the face of increasing flood risks and the need for effective management both at national and local levels, this study highlights a participatory approach that transcends conventional stakeholder consultation but delves into drawing insights through conceptual models that unveil the potential of the Participatory System Dynamic Modelling approach to mitigate flood risks, even at the grassroots level effectively. Through active stakeholder engagement, the study focuses on identifying and analysing the intricate interdependencies and feedback loops within the Limbe flood risk management system that are crucial for recommending comprehensive and actionable flood risk mitigation strategies for Limbe's cross-sectoral dynamics. By including flood experts and community stakeholders in the conceptual model construction, the study utilises an evaluative framework that accounts for system processes and outcomes, ensuring a holistic understanding of the flood risk system, considering scientific knowledge and real-life experiences. The findings underscore the value of participatory modelling techniques in facilitating the identification and prioritisation of intervention options by diverse stakeholders, thereby promoting active engagement in local flood risk management, a vital step in addressing the escalating challenges posed by climate change and natural disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve the societal goal of becoming a sustainable decarbonized society by 2050, it is essential to design visions and policies that take into account the perspectives of future generations overcoming intergenerational conflicts. In this paper, we present an innovative framework to envision a decarbonized society in 2050 and design policies by introducing "imaginary future generations," together with systems thinking, and analyze the effectiveness of these methods. We organized a series of workshops in which Kyoto City officials participated in the application of the framework. We demonstrate that by applying the framework, the policy measures proposed by the participants shifted from individual measures to proposals of new mechanisms and systems that do not yet exist, even if they present high hurdles for the current generation. Causal loop diagrams based on system thinking proved to be effective for increasing liveliness, reducing divergence, and improving the development of discussion themes. A questionnaire survey revealed that the workshop produced shifts in the participants' perceptions. We conclude that the proposed framework effectively generated "futurability" in the participants and could help facilitate policy design that aims to achieve a decarbonized society by overcoming the shortsightedness of the present society. • A new framework for policy design towards a decarbonized society is presented. • Imaginary future generations with systems thinking were adopted in deliberations. • The framework resulted in producing policy measures overcoming shortsightedness. • A causal loop diagram as systems thinking was effective for the policy discussion. • Questionnaire surveys showed a shift in participants' perception after treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a range of federal and state interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19, the US has seen millions of infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Top-down mandates have been ineffective because the community spread of the pandemic has been influenced by complex local dynamics that have evolved over time. Systems thinking approaches, specifically causal loop diagrams, and leverage points, are important techniques for representing complexity at the local level and identifying responsive systems change opportunities. This commentary presents a causal loop diagram highlighting the progressive effects of prolonged state-level COVID-19 mandates at the community level. We also identify potential system leverage points that address these effects and present an imagined future state causal loop diagram in which these solutions are implemented. Our future system demonstrates the importance of collaborations to enable community-driven, bottom-up approaches to public health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, that are adaptive and responsive to local needs.

The complexity, multidimensionality, and persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic have prompted both researchers and policymakers to turn to transdisciplinary methods in dealing with the wickedness of the crisis. While there are increasing calls to use systems thinking to address the intricacy of COVID-19, examples of practical applications of systems thinking are still scarce. We revealed and reviewed eight studies which developed causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a broader socioeconomic system. We find that major drivers across all studies are the magnitude of the infection spread and government interventions to curb the pandemic, while the most impacted variables are public perception of the pandemic and the risk of infection. The reviewed COVID-19 CLDs consistently exhibit certain complexity patterns, for example, they contain a higher number of two- and three-element feedback loops than comparable random networks. However, they fall short in representing linear complexity such as multiple causes and effects, as well as cascading impacts. We also discuss good practices for creating and presenting CLDs using the reviewed diagrams as illustration. We suggest that increasing transparency and rigor of the CLD development processes can help to overcome the lack of systems thinking applications to address the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis.