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eingereicht von: Gábor Kiss Zsfassung in dt. Sprache Linz, Univ., Diss., 2015 OeBB

A tanulmány megállapítása, hogy az átmeneti gazdaságok esetében a hagyományos fiskális jelzőszámok közvetlenül nem adaptálhatók, hiszen feltételezéseik az átmenet időszakában gyakran nem teljesülnek, és általában hiányoznak a stabil összefüggések. A gazdasági környezet sajátosságait figyelembe vevő mutatók előállításához a standardizált módszerek helyett alternatív megoldásokat kell keresni. A valóságos közgazdasági tartalom megközelítése érdekében az első lépés - a statisztikai adatok jól körülhatárolt korrekciójával - az egyes országok sajátosságait tükröző fiskális alapmutató előállítása. Másrészt szükség van bizonyos gazdasági összefüggések számszerűsítésére is, ami az átmenet és a felzárkózás időszakában nem egyszerű feladat. A ciklus hatásának pontosabb kiszűréséhez ráadásul a hosszú távú (potenciális) növekedési ütem meghatározása sem elégséges, a ciklus szűrésének általános problémái ebben az időszakban fokozott mértékben jelentkezhetnek. A tanulmányban ezért definiálunk egy új jelzőszámot: az úgynevezett adóalaprés-mutatót, amely a szűrés során az egyes adóalapok saját hosszú távú dinamikájából indul ki, valamint ennek inflációt is kiszűrő változatát: az úgynevezett kiegészített adóalaprés-mutatót. A fenntarthatóság legmegfelelőbbnek ítélhető szintetikus jelzőszámaként bevezetjük a középtávú elsődlegesrés-mutatót, ami a nettó vagyonból indul ki, és ami kiegészíthető a generációs elszámolásokból adódó hosszabb távú kiadási és bevételi adottságokkal is., The study establishes that the traditional fiscal index numbers cannot be adapted to the transitional economies, since their assumptions are frequently not fulfilled in the transition period, and in general, the stable connections are lacking. Alternatives to the standard methods must be sought when constructing indices that have regard for the special characteristics of the economic environment. The first step to approaching the actual economic content is to compile a basic fiscal index that reflects the characteristics of each country (making a well-circumscribed correction of the statistical data). Secondly, it is necessary to quantify certain economic connections, which is no easy task in a period of transition and catching up. Nor will determining the long-term (potential) growth rate suffice for screening out accurately the effect of the trade cycle, the general problems of which may appear to an enhanced degree in this period. The study therefore defines a new index number: the so-called tax-base gap index, which in the screening, starts from the long-term trends in the various tax bases and an inflation-screening version of this: the so-called augmented tax-base gap index. Presented as the most appropriate synthetic index number of sustainability is the medium-term primary gap index, which starts from net assets and can be augmented by determinations of the longer-term revenue and expenditure derived from generation calculations.

A hagyományos statisztikai hiánykategóriák alkalmazhatósága számos feltételhez kötődik, például ahhoz, hogy az árszintemelkedés mértéke nem jelentős, vagy ha mégis, akkor a gazdasági élet szereplőit nem befolyásolja a pénzillúzió. Ehhez képest egy analitikus jelzőszám reálisabb feltételezéseken alapuló modellekre épülhet, azonban a modell összetettsége az összehasonlíthatóság rovására mehet. A tanulmány az összevethetőség biztosítása érdekében a nemzetközileg szélesebb körben ismert analitikus mutatókat tekinti át, röviden bemutatva azokat az elméleti kereteket, amelyekben ezek a jelzőszámok értelmezhetők., The applicability of traditional statistical categories of shortage is linked to several conditions, e.g. to the assumption that the extent of price level rise is not considerable or, if it is, the actors of economic life are not influenced by the money illusion. Relative to that, an analytical indicator may be built on models relying on more realistic assumptions. But the complexity of the model may impair comparability. In the interest of securing comparability the study surveys those analytical indicators which are known in wider international circles, briefly presenting the theoretical frameworks in which the indicators can be interepreted.

We study the long term dynamics of non-autonomous functional di fferential equations. Namely, we establish existence results on pullback attractors for non-linear neutral functional di erential equations with time varying delays. The two main results di er in smoothness properties of delay functions.

This study defines various fiscal indicators for different analytical purposes, adjusting for the distorting effect of creative accounting. It presents these indicators using the example of Hungary. The study abandons the general view that an identical balance is produced from the two traditional definitions of the general government deficit, as deficit indicators resulting from the flow of funds calculated as the balance of revenues and expenditures (above the line) and changes in financial assets and liabilities (below the line) may vary. Firstly, the treatment of the loss of contributions transferred to private pension funds causes a difference, as in contrast to a tax cut, this does not constitute a flow of funds, but nevertheless increases the amount of public debt. Secondly, while accrualbased accounting is justified for defining assets and liabilities, accrual-based and cash-flow recording may be applied in relation to flow of funds, depending on which is more appropriate for estimating the effect or fiscal impulse on the economy. Accrual-based accounting adjusts fluctuations in cash-flow recording, but it identifies the economic impact only if there are neither liquidity constraints nor unexpected fiscal measures in the economy. In this case namely, the economic agents do not react to cash-flow fluctuations. If, however, the economic agents are either subject to liquidity constraints or unexpected measures are taken, they are also affected by the sudden changes in cash-flows. Contrary to conventions, the study draws a distinction between the two types of deficit indicators through the introduction of different terms. It continues to define the indicator identifying flow of funds as deficit, while it terms changes in assets and liabilities as a financing requirement. On the one side, the indicator defined as deficit constitutes the basis of the calculation of the impact on the economy and external balance ('impulse'). The composition of this fiscal impulse plays a decisive role, particularly the impulse on households and changes in indirect taxes. On the other side, the analysis of the financing requirement - that is, changes in assets and liabilities - provides the basis for determining which revenues and expenditures are deemed to be temporary and which are of a permanent ('underlying') nature. The study determines the categories of the augmented deficit, indicating flow of funds, and the augmented financing requirement, measuring changes in financial assets and liabilities, on the basis of the IMF method for filtering the effects of creative accounting. Statistical recording, namely, needs to be augmented with the financial requirement of organisations conducting quasi-fiscal operations and the simultaneously accumulating quasi-fiscal debt. The 'one-off' capital transfer related to the subsequent assumption of this quasi-fiscal debt needs to be filtered out. In our experience, the augmented deficit has advantage of being consistent in a macroeconomic sense and methodologically more stable than the statistical deficit, as the latter frequently requires revisions. Naturally, the actual figures of the augmented deficit may change to a certain degree, as the analytical adjustments need to augment data with estimates in the case of the quasi-fiscal operations and creative accounting. As a favourable change in relation to the data requirement, from 2010 the official budget accounting includes public investments which are statistically recorded as private investments.

In der letzten Jahren ist die Zahl der erfolgreichen Prüfungen von Studierenden im Informatikkurs des ersten Studienjahres für verschiedene Studiengänge an der Universität Óbuda stark gesunken. Dies betrifft Prüfungen in den Teilgebieten Rechnerarchitektur, Betrieb von Peripheriegeräten, Binäre Codierung und logische Operationen, Computerviren, Computernetze und das Internet, Steganographie und Kryptographie, Betriebsysteme. Mehr als der Hälfte der Studenten konnte die Prüfungen der ersten Semester nicht erfolgreich absolvieren. Die hier vorgelegte Analyse der Studienleistungen zielt darauf ab, Gründe für diese Entwicklung zu identifizieren, die Zahl der Abbrecher zu reduzieren und die Leistungen der Studenten zu verbessern. Die Analyse zeigt, dass die Studenten die erforderlichen Lehrmaterialen erst ein bis zwei Tage vor oder sogar erst am Tag der Klausuren vom Server downloaden, so dass sie nicht mehr hinreichend Zeit zum Lernen haben. Diese Tendenz zeigt sich bei allen Teilgebieten des Studiengangs. Ein Mangel an kontinuierlicher Mitarbeit scheint einer der Gründe für ein frühes Scheitern zu sein. Ferner zeigt sich die Notwendigkeit, dass bei den Lehrangeboten in Informatik auf eine kontinuierliche Kommunikation mit den Studierenden und Rückmeldung zu aktuellen Unterrichtsinhalten zu achten ist. Dies kann durch motivierende Maßnahmen zur Teilnahme an den Übungen oder durch kleine wöchentliche schriftliche Tests geschehen.

We establish some results on the existence of pullback attractors for non-autonomous delay di fferential equations with multiple delays. In particular, we generalise some recent works on the existence of pullback attractors for delay di fferential equations.

I study the short-term impact of surprise inflation on the primary balance by separating those budgetary items which immediately respond to inflation from non-responding ones. I assume a passive fiscal policy in a one-year horizon; therefore items fully controlled by the central government are treated as non-responding ones. In the case of the private sector and decentralised government, their responses to inflation depend on decisions. [...]

In this paper we investigate the possible effects of fiscal tightening in Hungary from two perspectives. First, simulations in an estimated neo-Keynesian model are used to characterise the effects of different scenarios for fiscal consolidations. We show that the composition of fiscal shocks is important for both the economic outcome and monetary policy. These simulations suggest a modest output cost of fiscal consolidation. Then we take a closer look at the non-Keynesian effects and their relevance for Hungary in a qualitative way. In our review of non-Keynesian channels of fiscal adjustments we conclude that expansionary effects are likely to become evident only in the medium or long run, rather than immediately after measures are taken.

In autumn of year 1914 more and more epidemic cases were observed from the eastern front-line. The infected wells, the lack of cleanliness and the health were the reasons, and the home territory was also in danger because of transportation of the wounded soldiers. For the sake of defence the sick soldiers were transported as a closed detachment, then "saving zones" were established with ill-observation posts. The posts were ruled by two leaders. The commissioner of the Minister for Home Affairs prevented spread of contamination, the commanding officer of the military squads organized order and subordination. There were squads escorted the wounded detachments; they worked in two areas: from the border railway stations to the observation posts and at these posts. They worked as escorts, supervisors of the sick soldiers. The posts were barracks; they consisted of an entrance room, operating rooms, laboratories, barracks of infecting and non-infecting ills etc. The soldiers were quartered into 5 groups, infecting ills, non-infecting ills, people contacted infecting ills, wounded men, other ills. The staff of posts consisted of 57-64 people.

Cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) is a widely cited and widely used concept in the evaluation of fiscal situations. The key idea behind it involves the identification of potential levels of economic variables. There are two recently used methods: the aggregate approach and the unconstrained disaggregate approach. In this paper we apply them on USA, Japan and 25 EU member countries to demonstrate that both approaches could be the source of considerable bias. While the aggregate approach cannot cope with different shocks, the unconstrained disaggregate method involves systematic bias and do not contain theoretical consideration. In order to avoid these distortions we present an alternative framework, which is able to incorporate the advantages of both approaches. Combining arbitrary output gap and constrained multivariate HP filter induces theoretically motivated disaggregation where we also exploit the implication of production function parameterisation. We found that the price effect resulting from the composition effect of different deflators could play an important role in evaluation of the fiscal position. To display the importance of composition effect we analyse the cyclical components of Finnish, Hungarian and Italian budget balances more in detail.