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Introduction. Today, the study of climate is one of the most important tasks of modern science. Particular attention is paid to issues of climate variability on different time scales. The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading signal of interannual climate variability that influences the weather and climate of the globe. It has been revealed that during the onset of its different phases, weather and climate anomalies (up to extreme ones) are observed not only over the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean, but also in extratropical latitudes, which are transmitted through teleconnections in the ocean-atmosphere system. Numerous studies have shown that ENSO modulates tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific Ocean. The purpose of the study is to determine the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the frequency of tropical cyclones of varying intensity in the northwestern Pacific Ocean under current climatic conditions. Materials and methods of research. The work uses data of the number of cases and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) for the period 1991-2020, and series of indices ONI and SOI. Using these data, statistics on the frequency of TCs in the study area were calculated and Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated. The scientific novelty lies in obtaining quantitative characteristics of the relationship between SST and the number of TCs of varying intensity in modern climatic conditions. The practical significance of the work lies in the fact that TCs are associated with the occurrence of severe weather conditions, which, when a TC reaches the densely populated coast of Southeast Asia, can pretend to be significant losses. Therefore, information that can be used in forecasting TCs and their trajectories is very high importance. Research results. Analysis of the frequency of TCs of different intensity in the northwestern Pacific Ocean during the 1991-2020 showed that there was a decrease in the number of tropical depressions and typhoons. However, there has been a slight increase in the occurrence of tropical storms. The results of the analysis of the influence of SST variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean on the frequency of TCs, showed that there is a statistically significant relationship only with the frequency of typhoons. The establishment of positive SST in the center of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, associated with the El Niño episode, is associated with an increase in typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Characteristics of PM 2.5 -bound metals and carbon were investigated. • Biomass burning accounted for 50% in La Niña year and 79% in El Niño year. • Climate phenomenon affected levels of PM 2.5 and their metal and carbon compositions. • Open burning increases in El Niño year causing serious air pollution in the region. • Less open burning in La Niña year made soil resuspension and traffic prominent. There have been a very limited number of systematic studies on PM 2.5 compositions and their source contribution in Southeast Asia. This study aims to explore the characteristics of PM 2.5 composition collected in Chiang Mai (Thailand) during La Niña and El Niño years and to apportion their sources during smoke haze and non-haze periods. The average PM 2.5 concentration of smoke haze episode in 2019 (El Niño) was much higher than in 2017 (La Niña). The ratios of organic carbon (OC) to elemental carbon (EC), as well as K (biomass burning (BB) tracer) to PM 2.5 , were higher during smoke haze episodes in 2019 than in 2017 indicating a significant influence from BB. The ratios of secondary organic carbon (SOC) levels to primary organic carbon (POC) levels during smoke haze episodes were higher than those in non-haze period, which indicated greater SOC contributions or more photo-oxidation of precursors in haze episodes with high ambient temperatures. However, the ratios of soil markers (Ca and Mg) during non-haze period were high implying that soil source contributed more to PM 2.5 concentrations when there less BB occurred. The positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model revealed that the source of BB, characterized by high K fractions, was the largest contributor during smoke haze episodes accounting for 50% (2017) and 79% (2019). Climate conditions influence meteorological patterns, particularly during incidences of extreme weather such as droughts, which affect the scale and frequency of open burning and thus air pollution levels. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface currents in coastal areas are closely related to the ecological environment and human activities, and are influenced by both local and remote factors of different timescales, resulting in complex genesis and multi-timescale characteristics. In this research, 9-year-long, hourly high-frequency radar (HFR) surface current observations are utilized together with satellite remote sensing reanalysis products and mooring data, and based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analysis, we revealed the multi-timescale characteristics of the surface currents in Fremantle Sea (32°S), Southwestern Australia, and explored the corresponding driving factors as well as the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the nearshore currents. Results show that the currents on the slope are dominated by the southward Leeuwin Current (LC), and the currents within the shelf are dominated by winds, which are subject to obvious diurnal and seasonal variations. The strong bathymetry variation there, from a wide shelf in the north to a narrow shelf in this study region, also plays an important role, resulting in the frequent occurrence of nearshore eddies. In addition, the near-zonal winds south of 30°S in winter contribute to the interannual variability of the Leeuwin Current at Fremantle, especially in 2011, when the onshore shelf circulation is particularly strong because of the climatic factors, together with the wind-driven offshore circulation, which results in significant and long-lasting eddies. The southward Leeuwin Current along Southwestern Australia shows a strong response to interannual climatic variability. During La Niña years, the equatorial thermal anomalies generate the westward anomalies in winds and equatorial currents, which in turn strengthen the Leeuwin Current and trigger the cross-shelf current as well as downwelling within the shelf at Fremantle, whereas during El Niño years, the climate anomalies and the response of coastal currents are opposite. This paper provides insights into the multi-timescale nature of coastal surface currents and the relative importance of different driving mechanisms. It also demonstrates the potential of HFR to reveal the response of nearshore currents to climate anomalies when combined with other multivariate data. Meanwhile, the methodology adopted in this research is applicable to other coastal regions with long-term available HFR observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal climate predictability and a key predictor for East Asian precipitation. However, the impacts of ENSO on East Asian precipitation are extremely complex and still controversial. Thus, it is necessary and significant to use various (observational and model) data sources to further examine the robustness of the impacts. This study revisits the evolution of the ENSO‐related seasonal precipitation anomalies in East Asia, including symmetric and asymmetric impacts of El Niños and La Niñas, the differences in the influences of eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niños, and the interdecadal change of ENSO influences. The ENSO impact on East Asian precipitation has weakened (strengthened) in the ENSO's developing (decay) phase in the recent two decades. The ENSO impacts are robust in (i) southern China‐lower reaches of the Yangtze River‐southern Japan around the ENSO's mature phase, (ii) western North China in the developing phase and (iii) southwestern China in the decay phase. The distribution of East Asian precipitation anomalies is asymmetric in El Niño and La Niña years. The model simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature generally reproduce the observed evolution of seasonal precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and confirm the robust impact of ENSO in East Asia. These results indicate the necessity to consider the asymmetric impact of El Niños and La Niñas, to distinguish the El Niño flavours for their impact on the East Asian climate, and to include the interdecadal variation of ENSO influence in addressing East Asian climate anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variations of the Earth's magnetic field in the period 2013−2023 are considered on the basis of data from the INTERMAGNET network observatories located in the South Pacific Ocean. It was shown that El Niño in 2015 was accompanied by anomalous geomagnetic variations with an amplitude of up to 120 nT with a well-manifested increase in their mean-square deviation by 1.5 times relative to the average values of 2013. For the period from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, a dramatical increase in the variations of the geomagnetic field and an increase in their mean-square deviation by 2.5 times relative to 2021 was recorded. This fact may indicate the beginning of the activation of a strong El Niño, the maximum intensity of which should be expected in 2024. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study adopts an energy-based approach to interpret the negative phase of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. This is accomplished by diagnosing the output of hindcast experiments from 1958 to 2018 based on a linear ocean model. The authors have performed a composite analysis for a set of negative IOD (nIOD) events, distinguishing between independent nIOD events and concurrent nIOD events with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The focus is on investigating the mechanism of nIOD events in terms of wave energy transfer, employing a linear wave theory that considers the group velocity. The proposed diagnostic scheme offers a unified framework for studying the interaction between equatorial and off-equatorial waves. Both the first and third baroclinic modes exhibit interannual variations characterized by a distinct packet of eastward energy flux associated with equatorial Kelvin waves. During October–December, westerly wind anomalies induce the propagation of eastward-moving equatorial waves, leading to thermocline deepening in the central-eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, a feature absent during neutral IOD years. The development of wave energy demonstrates different patterns during nIOD events of various types. In concurrent nIOD–ENSO years, characterized by strong westerly winds, the intense eastward transfer of wave energy becomes prominent as early as October. This differs significantly from the situation manifested in independent nIOD years. The intensity of the energy-flux streamfunction/potential reaches its peak around November and then rapidly diminishes in December during both types of nIOD years. Significance Statement: The present study provides an interpretation of wave energy transfer episodes in the upper ocean during the negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) based on the diagnosis of hindcast experiments. The results suggest that the reflection of Kelvin and Rossby waves at the eastern and western boundaries of the Indian Ocean (IO), respectively, accompanied by variations in thermocline depth, plays a crucial role in the development process of IOD events. Specifically, during the negative phase of the IOD, the tropical IO exhibits positive signals of energy-flux streamfunction in the Northern Hemisphere, along with positive signals of energy-flux potential associated with westerly wind anomalies occurring in October–December. These findings highlight the significance of these factors in shaping the characteristics of negative IOD events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We diagnose physical factors related to frequent compound drought and heat extremes over a Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESA; 30°–40°N, 35°–65°E) region in a recent (1999–2022) compared to a prior (1951–98) period. The recent compound extremes were related to conflict, disease transmission, and water shortages in this already semiarid region. Observed estimates and four transient climate model ensembles are used to identify the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols on these compound extremes in autumn (September–November), winter (December–February), spring (March–May), and summer (June–August) that may lead to practical forecast skill for future compound events. Observations and climate models indicate that MESA compound drought and heat in the autumn, winter, and spring wet seasons for the recent period were related to the La Niña phase of ENSO and an attendant northward shift of the storm track that hinders precipitation-bearing storms from moving through MESA. A comparison of different conditions in the model simulations is used to isolate the effects of La Niña and the atmospheric forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols on compound MESA drought and heat. A comparison of recent and prior periods in the climate models, which isolates the effects of the atmospheric forcing, indicates that greenhouse gases and aerosols are related to the increases in MESA heat frequency in all seasons. A comparison of La Niña to ENSO neutral and El Niño in the recent period of the climate models indicates that La Niña is related to increases in MESA drought frequency in the wet seasons. Significance Statement: Compound drought and heat pose serious threats to the Middle East and Southwest Asia (MESA) where political and socioeconomic challenges leave its people vulnerable to climate extremes. In this region, frequent seasonal compound drought and heat in a recent (1999–2022) compared to a prior (1951–98) period were related to conflict and water shortages. Physical factors related to these compound extremes in the recent period over MESA were identified, potentially rendering future occurrences predictable. La Niña and atmospheric forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed to the compound extremes, with the former related to anomalously low precipitation in the September–November, December–February, and March–May wet seasons and the latter related to anomalous high temperatures in all seasons, including June–August. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Asian monsoon region can persist through the post-ENSO summer, after the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific have dissipated. The long persistence of coherent post-ENSO anomalies is caused by a positive feedback due to interbasin ocean–atmospheric coupling, known as the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect, although the feedback mechanism itself does not necessarily rely on the antecedence of ENSO events, suggesting the potential for substantial internal variability independent of ENSO. To investigate the respective role of ENSO forcing and non-ENSO internal variability, we conduct ensemble "forecast" experiments with a full-physics, globally coupled atmosphere–ocean model initialized from a multidecadal tropical Pacific pacemaker simulation. The leading mode of internal variability as represented by the forecast-ensemble spread resembles the post-ENSO IPOC, despite the absence of antecedent ENSO forcing by design. The persistent atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the leading mode highlight the positive feedback mechanism in the internal variability. The large sample size afforded by the ensemble spread allows us to identify robust non-ENSO precursors of summer IPOC variability, including a cool SST patch over the tropical northwestern Pacific, a warming patch in the tropical North Atlantic, and downwelling oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean south of the equator. The pathways by which the precursors develop into the summer IPOC mode and the implications for improved predictability are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of data-driven models in conjunction with the advances in technologies regarded as remote sensing in generating recorded data from satellites has guided water management studies towards using these technologies, especially in the regions dealing with drought, like the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. In this basin, the agricultural sector has been exposed to dryness due to a decrease in rainfall and uncontrolled water consumption. In the last decade, many studies have tried to brighten this arena of water knowledge. However, the relationship between meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation with the meteorological drought of Lake Urmia had never been determined. The relationship between meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation with Lake Urmia's meteorological drought has been determined. This study calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values based on meteorological variables. Then a combination of the meteorological variables and atmospheric circulation values was considered a data mining model input for estimating the droughts. The series of the SPEI values for 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, 24-, and 48-month time scales were obtained during 1988-2016. In this study, both the M5 Tree model and Associate Rules were used to predict and analyze the meteorological drought at six synoptic stations in the basin, considering both the atmospheric circulations (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Mediterranean Oscillation Index of Gibraltar-Israel (Mogi), Mediterranean Oscillation Index of Algiers-Cairo (MOac), Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WEMO), Mediterranean, Red, Black, Caspian, and Persian Gulf SSTs) and the meteorological variables (lagged relative humidity, evapotranspiration, average temperature, minimum-maximum temperature, and pressure). The results showed that using a combination of the atmospheric circulation indices and meteorological variables in the models increases the model's accuracy and improves the results in a longterm period. The best result in the study of drought in the Lake Urmia basin is related to SPEI48 (R = 0.85, RMSE = 0.08, MAE = 0.11), and in the association rules, the value of the lifting index of the best rule is 1.32. Although both approaches provided acceptable results, the M5 Tree model had a comparative advantage due to simple and practical linear relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies suggest that La Niña events can be classified into two categories: mega La Niña and equatorial La Niña. The understanding of the variations in boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) behaviors between such two conditions remains uncertain. Results in this work show during equatorial La Niña summers, in conjunction with the more adequate intraseasonal column-integrated moisture anomalies, the weaker intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies are observed over the western North Pacific (WNP) at 3 pentads lag of the peak phase for the Maritime Continent (MC) BSISO events than during mega conditions. Such changes are closely linked with the different propagation features, specifically northwestward and northeastward propagations under mega and equatorial conditions respectively. The distinct propagations under these two conditions could be partly explained by the background column-integrated moisture anomalies. Under equatorial conditions, the less sufficient background moisture anomalies over the tropical western Pacific (WP), in comparison to mega conditions, suppress the activities of the BSISO and its northwestward propagation here. Meanwhile, the enhanced moisture anomalies over the northwestern MC and its surrounding area (NWMC) facilitate the northeastward propagation. Under mega conditions, the background moisture anomalies over the tropical WP are not significant. The southward moisture anomaly gradient over the NWMC hinders the meridional northward propagation and makes some BSISO activities move to the tropical WP region, performing the zonal westward propagation as a whole. The moisture budget and multi-scale interaction diagnoses also emphasize the significant role of the propagation change in the moisture tendency difference averaged over the WNP. Moreover, the extratropical circulation anomalies associated with the MC BSISO events are also discussed. These findings provide new insights into BSISO activity and offer potential improvements for subseasonal forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) can cause significant distress to marine environment and modulate air-sea interaction, which in turn can have economic and societal impacts. This study aims to identify surface and subsurface MHWs in the Bay of Bengal using available sea-surface temperature data and buoy observations spanning four decades. The results show significant increase in the number, frequency, duration, and intensity of surface MHWs in recent years. To better understand the relationship between MHW occurrences and different phases of two climate phenomena, namely, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, multiple extreme MHW event years between 2008 and 2018 are analyzed. The findings show that the surface MHWs become more prominent during El Niño/positive IOD events due to weakened winds, increased net heat flux input towards the ocean, increased stratification and warming tendency through vertical processes in the presence of inversion. This, in turn, affects the surface biological productivity in the region. Additionally, surface MHWs were also found to be driven by surface currents and eddies. On the other hand, subsurface MHWs develop during negative IOD/La Niña conditions due to the deepening of the thermocline, which is forced by coastally trapped downwelling Kelvin waves and reflected downwelling Rossby waves, and is followed by substantial freshening of deeper layers. This study provides a deeper understanding of the causes of surface and subsurface MHWs in the Bay of Bengal, which is a crucial basin in influencing monsoon and cyclonic events affecting its surrounding landmasses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monsoon rain and its year-to-year variability have a profound influence on Africa's socio-economic structure by heavily impacting sectors such as agricultural and energy. This study focuses on major drivers of the east African monsoon during October-November-December (OND) which is the standard time window for the onset of the rainy season, be it unimodal or bimodal. Two drivers viz. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) both separately indicate very strong positive connections with monsoon (OND) rain not only in the OND season with zero seasonal lag, but the signal is also present even taking IOD and ENSO a season ahead. A compositing approach is applied that can additionally identify strong signals when different combinations of ENSO and IOD phases act as confounding factors. Results of precipitation anomaly suggest that when IOD and ENSO are both on the same phase in July-August-September (JAS), a significant OND rainfall anomaly occurs around the east African sector: A deficit (excess) of OND monsoon rain occurs when both drivers are in a negative (positive) phase during JAS. A location Kibaha in Tanzania, for which station data are available, is considered for a more in-depth analysis. The uncertainty range in cumulative OND rainfall is also reduced to a large degree when IOD and ENSO phases are both negative in JAS. These results can be used for prediction purposes and interestingly, that criterion of IOD and ENSO being of same phase in JAS was again matched in 2022 (both negative) and hence it was possible to deliver early warnings for a deficit in rainfall a season ahead. Techniques to compute the monsoon onset as determined by meteorological services such as the Tanzania Meteorological Authority rely on various thresholds, which may also vary by country. To overcome some of the issues with thresholds-based techniques, other definitions of 'onset' take into account cumulative rainfall amount and such technique has also been tested and compared. In both approaches, late (early) onsets dominate in years when ENSO and IOD are both negative (positive) during JAS. In these cases, it is therefore possible to provide an estimation of cumulative rainfall and onset for OND in terms of average, median value, range and distribution of rainfall one season in advance. Such results have implications for optimizing agricultural, water and energy management, also mitigating possible severe production losses, which would impact the livelihoods of millions of Africans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses reanalysis data and model outputs to quantify relative contributions of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to the vertical structure variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) using multiple regression analysis. In comparing ENSO to IOD events, it becomes evident that ENSO plays a more significant role in ITF upper layer (0–300 m) transport, while the IOD has a greater impact on ITF lower layer (300–760 m) transport. Given the larger anomaly in ITF upper layer transport, ENSO dominates the interannual variability of ITF transport. Moreover, ITF transport is influenced by different physical processes associated with varying phases of ENSO and the IOD. The month‐by‐month contributions reveal that the IOD primarily controls ITF transport during El Niño development years, while ENSO has more influence during El Niño decaying years. Plain Language Summary: The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transports warm water from the tropical western Pacific Ocean to the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, altering the vertical stratification and heat content of the Indian Ocean. Thus, its transport variability is influenced by two large‐scale climatic phenomena, El Niño (or La Niña) in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, the responses of upper layer and lower layer transports to these two climatic phenomena are different. Upper layer transport is mainly controlled by El Niño, while lower layer transport is mainly controlled by the IOD. The whole transport was primarily controlled by the IOD during El Niño development year and by the ENSO during El Niño decay year. The results are important for studying the influence of the vertical structure of the ITF on the interannual variability in the upper Indian Ocean circulation. Key Points: Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport is primarily controlled by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the El Niño developing year and by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the El Niño decaying yearENSO has a greater impact on the ITF compared to the IOD because of differences in their amplitude, peak time, and durationWind anomalies drive ITF upper layer transport, while ITF lower layer transport is primarily controlled by IOD/ENSO‐induced wave dynamics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that the tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the Equatorial Pacific are enhanced during La Niña and suppressed during El Niño. Unlike El Niño which tends to decay quickly, La Niña often persists through the subsequent one or 2 years, becoming a multiyear La Niña. Using a time‐dependent and space‐localized energetics formalism and a suite of observational and reanalysis data, we found that the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) associated with TIWs only peaks during the first‐year La Niña and decreases significantly during the second‐year La Niña. This is caused, to the first order, by the weaker equatorial cold tongue near the equator and anomalous cooling in the off‐equator regions during the second‐year La Niña, as compared to the first‐year La Niña, which leads to a significant decrease in meridional density shear, and thus a reduction in baroclinic instability. Meanwhile, the weakened South Equatorial Current during the second‐year La Niña also contribute to EKE decrease by transferring less kinetic energy to the TIWs via barotropic instability. The meridionally broad spatial pattern of negative temperature anomalies during the second‐year La Niña is the major reason for the weakened TIW activity. Plain Language Summary: Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) are mesoscale waves propagating westward on edges of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. Their interannual variability is strongly modulated by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, enhanced during La Niña and suppressed during El Niño years. In contrast to El Niño which tends to decay quickly, La Niña often persists through the subsequent one or two years, becoming a multiyear La Niña. For the first time, this study unveils the time‐dependent feature of the TIW activity in the multiyear La Niña events. That is, the TIW activity, as measured by eddy kinetic energy, is largely weakened during the second‐year La Niña as compared to the first‐year La Niña. An energetics analysis reveals that baroclinic instability, a dominant energy source of the TIWs, is significantly weakened during the second‐year La Niña. Meanwhile, the strength of barotropic instability (another major energy source of the TIWs) is also reduced. Our study indicates the importance of both baroclinic and barotropic instabilities in shaping the interannual evolution of TIWs during the multiyear La Niña. Key Points: While the tropical instability wave (TIW) activity is believed to be enhanced by La Niña, in a multiyear La Niña, it is greatly decreased after the first yearThe decrease in TIW eddy kinetic energy (EKE) during the second‐year La Niña is mainly due to a weakened baroclinic instability of the equatorial currentsThe spatial difference in the meridional structure of temperature pattern causes the difference in TIW EKE during multi‐year events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An effort is made to understand the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events on the malaria transmission intensity over India during the period 1951–2020 (70 years) with the help of a realistically simulated dynamical malaria model. The results suggest that the La Nina years pose a greater threat of malaria disease, especially in the densely populated Indian states. During El Nino years, the malaria transmission intensity and distribution over India greatly reduce, except in the regions such as Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Western Ghats, parts of Madhya Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh. It is found that in the positive IOD years, the malaria transmission intensity increases (decreases) over the entire central Indian region and along coastal regions of Tamil Nadu and Kerala (southern peninsular states of India and northeast India). An almost opposite behavior is seen during the negative IOD years. The malaria transmission variability over India is becoming increasingly heterogeneous in recent decades during the El Nino and La Nina years as a result of global warming. The period of 1986–2020 witnessed a substantial decrease (increase) in the malaria transmission intensity during the positive (negative) IOD years, except for a few regions of India. The implications of the results presented in the paper linking the ENSO and IOD signals with the intensity and distribution of malaria over India in a warming world are enormous, especially for the densely populated Indian states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Extreme Precipitation Indices (EPIs) was analyzed, and these ENSO-forced anomalies were compared with the long-term change in the EPIs. The annual time series of the EPIs were built from 880 precipitation stations that contained daily records between 1979 and 2022. These daily time series were filled, then the eleven (11) annual time series of the EPIs were built. To calculate ENSO-driven anomalies, the several phases of the phenomenon were considered (i.e., warm phase or El Niño years, cold phase or La Niña years, and normal or neutral years). For a particular EPI, the values calculated for the extreme phases of the ENSO were grouped, and these groups were compared with the group made up of the EPI values for the neutral years. To calculate the long-term change, two periods (1979–1996 and 2004–2021) were considered to group the EPI values. Maps showing the magnitude and significance of the assessed change/anomaly were constructed. The results allowed us to identify that the EPIs are generally "wetter" (i.e., higher extreme precipitation, longer wet periods, shorter dry periods, etc.) during La Niña hydrological years, while the opposite changes are observed during El Niño years. Furthermore, ENSO-induced anomalies are more important than the long-term changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual variability of vegetation activity (i.e., photosynthesis) is strongly correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Globally, a reduction in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems has been observed during the ENSO warm phase (El Niño) and the opposite during the cold phase (La Niña). However, this global perspective obscures the heterogeneous impacts of ENSO at regional scales. Particularly, ENSO has contrasting impacts on climate in northern South America (NSA) depending on the ENSO phase and geographical location, which in turn affect the activity of vegetation. Furthermore, changes of vegetation activity during multiple ENSO events are not well understood yet. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal differences in vegetation activity associated with ENSO variability and its three phases (El Niño, La Niña, Neutral) to identify hotspots of ENSO impacts in NSA, a region dominated by rainforest and savannas. To achieve this, we investigated time series of vegetation variables from 2001 to 2014 at moderate spatial resolution (0.0083°). Data were aggregated through dimensionality reduction analysis (i.e., Global Principal Component Analysis). The leading principal component served as a proxy of vegetation activity (VAC). We calculated the cross‐correlation between VAC and the multivariate ENSO index separately for each ENSO phase. Our results show that El Niño phase has a stronger impact on vegetation activity both in intensity and duration than La Niña phase. Moreover, seasonally dry ecoregions were more susceptible to El Niño impacts on vegetation activity. Understanding these differences is key for regional adaptation and differentiated management of ecosystems. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation and temperature are important climatic drivers of vegetation processes. In particular, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are related to changes in precipitation and temperature over large regions, which in turn affects the activity of the vegetation. In northern South America (NSA), these changes on climate are opposite during the same ENSO event depending on the geographical location. Moreover, local conditions and vegetation type can moderate or amplified changes in vegetation activity. Currently, the contrasting vegetation changes during the ENSO warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phase are not well understood in NSA. Furthermore, it is unknown where the largest vegetation variability is occurring during ENSO phases. We combined different vegetation variables related to vegetation greenness and plant productivity over 14 years to estimate changes in vegetation activity related to photosynthesis. In this way, we assessed the variability of vegetation activity during El Niño and La Niña. We found that variability of vegetation activity is stronger and longer during El Niño than La Niña. In addition, vegetation in semi‐arid ecoregions was more susceptible to El Niño. A better understating of how vegetation activity varies during different ENSO phases will improve regional conservation strategies under the increasing ENSO frequencies. Key Points: Interannual variability of vegetation activity in northern South America is related to changes in climate due to El Niño and La Niña eventsEl Niño events have a stronger impact on vegetation activity both in intensity and duration than La Niña eventsSemi‐arid ecoregions are the most vulnerable to El Niño, but further investigation is required to understand underlying processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The synergistic effects of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been investigated in this study over various subregions of India during 1981–2015. The IOD, is aperiodic and erratic, still this phenomenon is intrinsic in nature dependent on coupled ocean and atmospheric characteristics of the Indian ocean. About 60% of the IOD events showed its coexistence with ENSO during the 35-year recent climatology, still 40% of IOD events are independently occurring. For this analysis, the strongest three positive IOD (1994, 1997, 2006) and three negative IOD (1996, 1998, 2010) events have been identified that co-occurred with El-Nino and La-Nina events respectively. This study reveals that pIOD events are stronger and but the nIOD events are frequent and effecting Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies helps in explaining how strong pIOD favors moisture transport towards the western ghats, central India, northwest India, and anticyclonic conditions in the Bay of Bengal area whereas nIOD produces less rainfall in central India and the western ghats, but greater rainfall in the northeastern region. The reduced ENSO-IOD coupling in the 2000s may have strengthened the connection between ENSO and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISMR), which had experienced a weakening in preceding decades, as reported by Kumar et al. (Science 284:2156–2159, 1999) and Ashok et al. (Geophys Res Lett 28:4499–4502, 2001). This study also investigates whether a regional climate model (RegCM4.7) accurately incorporate the realistic ENSO-IOD coupling mechanisms, and simulate its impact on regionalized precipitation during summer monsoon. The high-resolution RegCM4.7 simulations are close to the observation of rainfall during 2006, 1996 and 2010 extreme IOD events simulation that indicate RCM's higher sensitivity towards the abrupt change in boundary condition such as SST. Overall, the monsoon core regions i.e., central India, western ghats and northeast India, both IOD and southern oscillations are the synergistic predictor for the ISMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: We investigate the associations between major Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger throughout the year. Methods: We use a composite-based approach, relating the probability of top-decile observed potential fire intensity to the positive and negative modes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, split-flow blocking and Subtropical Ridge Tasman Highs, both concurrently and at a variety of lag times. Key results: The chance of extreme fire danger increases over broad regions of the continent in response to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, the negative mode of the Southern Annular Mode, split-flow Blocking Index and Subtropical Ridge Tasman High, and Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 5, 6, 2 and 8 in Austral summer, autumn, winter and spring respectively. These relationships exist not only concurrently, but also when a climate event occurs up to 6 months ahead of the season of interest. Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of considering the influence of diverse climate drivers, at a range of temporal lag periods, in understanding and predicting extreme fire danger. Implications: The results of this study may aid in the development of effective fire management strategies and decision-making processes to mitigate the impacts of fire events in Australia. This paper explores the relationships between the major forces influencing Australian weather and climate, and the chance of severe fire seasons. The findings could be valuable in decision making and preparation for upcoming fire seasons to avoid more seasons with devastating outcomes such as the 2019–2020 Black Summer. This article belongs to the Collection Fire and Climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important component of global climate influencing ecological systems is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects hydrological conditions in coastal environments around the world. Based on long-term time series of monthly sampling (1997–2019), we investigated the influence of remote (ENSO) and local environmental factors on the juvenile's abundance of the Argentine menhaden Brevoortia pectinata in a subtropical estuary. We also evaluated if the abundance over the years is decreasing due to the negative effects of higher intense El Niño events. Despite the apparent increase in abundance over the years, time series decomposition and mixed models did not reveal an increasing trend along the studied period (Chisq = 2.62; p = 0.289). The overall interannual trend varied across sampling sites, and a trend of increasing abundance over the years was observed only at the estuary site closest to the sea (Chisq = 5.59; p = 0.018). The most parsimonious GAM model revealed that salinity, temperature, and ENSO (based on the Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) explained 23.8% of the abundance variation of B. pectinata juveniles. There was a negative effect on the abundance during El Niño years, especially during more intense events (ONI > 1.5), but no apparent effects were observed for La Niña events. Our findings revealed that the variations in the abundance of this species depend not only on local factors such as temperature and salinity, but also on global climatic phenomena that influence estuarine hydrology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a quantitative climatology of water vapour exchange between the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and free troposphere (FT) over eastern China. The exchange flux is estimated for January, April, July and October over 7 years based on a water vapour budget equation using simulated meteorological data. The spatiotemporal characteristics and occurrence mechanism of ABL–FT water vapour exchange and its relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are revealed: (1) the vertical exchange flux varies regionally and seasonally, with downward transport to maintain ABL moisture during winter and autumn in the northern region and persistent output to humidify the FT in the southern region, particularly in summer. Additionally, the vertical exchange flux is also topographic dependent. (2) The vertical motion at the ABL top, which is produced by the dynamic forcing of the terrain on synoptic winds, is the dominant mechanism for the water vapour vertical exchange over the long-term average. The evolution of the vertical exchange flux within 1 d scale is driven by the ABL diurnal cycle. (3) The interannual variation of water vapour vertical exchange is correlated with ENSO. A triple antiphase distribution with negative–positive–negative anomalies from north to south exists in La Niña years (and vice versa in El Niño years), which corresponds to the spatial pattern of anomalous precipitation. This phenomenon is mainly due to the alteration of vertical velocity and water vapour content at the ABL top varying with ENSO phases. These results provide new insight into understanding the atmospheric water cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertically integrated horizontal vapour transport (IVT) accompanied by westerlies and southwesterlies mainly contributes as a distant source of moisture to the seasonal precipitation (PR). The moisture transport and PR patterns across the eastern Himalayas (Sikkim, northern Sub‐Himalayan West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh) are strongly modulated by the orographic setup, local land‐atmospheric factors and teleconnection with climate indices of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This study elaborates on the changing patterns of PR and IVT, changes in IVT contribution to the seasonal PR under the nonstationary framework and evaluates the nonlinear dependency on local and distant drivers with piecewise regression model. Asymmetries in significant seasonal trends are conspicuous due to multi‐altitude interactions. Strong declining trend over Assam and Arunachal Pradesh is evident for PR with concurrent rising trend over the Meghalaya plateau. The IVT signals show a significant decline in post‐monsoon (October and November) and winter (December to February) across Assam Plain. The increase in mean IVT contributes significantly to seasonal PR. Significant decline in the contribution of heavy IVT to winter PR is observed over Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and part of Assam. Surface 2 m temperature and net thermal radiation exhibit contrasting influence on seasonal PR. IVT shows mainly positive association with surface 2 m dew point temperature and latent heat flux across the eastern Himalayas. NINO3.4 index exhibits strong negative influence on post‐monsoon PR. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is strongly associated with summer (March to May) PR. Monsoon (June to September) IVT is negatively influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the Sub‐Himalayan West Bengal, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand. The Southern Oscillation Index is negatively linked with summer IVT. The combination of local driving forces mainly controls the seasonal PR and IVT across all seasons. Besides, distant drivers are prominent in monsoon and post‐monsoon. This study reveals insights into recent changes of PR and IVT, their contribution to seasonal water resources in the eastern Himalayas and the controlling strength of local land‐atmosphere feedback mechanism and distant land‐ocean coupling drivers under nonstationary climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, the increasing frequency of compound dry–hot extremes pose varying degrees of threats to the natural environment and human society. However, due to the lack of long‐term and high‐accuracy meteorological observations, the characteristics and drivers of compound dry–hot extremes over a century‐long period is still poorly investigated in China. Here we characterize the spatiotemporal variations of growing‐season (May–September) compound dry–hot events (CDHEs) over China using Standardized Dry and Hot Index (SDHI) calculated by monthly temperature and precipitation during 1901–2017. The influences of precipitation and temperature extremes, as well as large‐scale climate indices (i.e., El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index [ENSO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO] and North Pacific [NP]) on CDHEs were then explored using the relative contribution analysis, Pearson correlation analysis and cross‐wavelet spectrum analysis. Our findings reveal a significant increase in the occurrence of different severity levels of CDHEs in China with their spatial extent gradually increase, practically since the end of the 20th century. Due to the exacerbation of drought conditions in China since the mid‐20th century, the regions where the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has a more prominent contribution to the SDHI have gradually expanded, predominantly in the eastern, northern and northwestern parts of China. The significant influence of large‐scale climate indices, particularly ENSO and AMO, on the occurrence of compound dry–hot extremes in China is noteworthy, as these indices control the variability of precipitation and temperature, respectively. The study findings demonstrate that AMO exhibits a more significant correlation with SDHI in all subregions of China, while ENSO exhibits marginally stronger periodic coherence with SDHI than the other indices. This study offers valuable insights and references for unravelling long‐term development process of and the underlying influence mechanisms of significant climate patterns on the growing‐season CDHEs in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of rainfall trends is crucial for food security and water availability in Alagoas state, Northeast of Brazil. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall trends have been studied (1960–2016) for homogeneous rainfall regions over the eastern part of the Northeast Brazil (ENEB) and later related to climate variability. Cluster analysis was applied to identify homogeneous rainfall regions while the Mann–Kendall (MK), modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used in the analysis and identification of trends on a spatial and temporal scale. To relate rainfall and climate variability modes, Spearman's correlation was used in each homogeneous region. The rainfall series provided evidence of a general decrease in rainfall in the rainy period and an increase in the dry period, mainly over the driest region. The break points of time series occurred mostly in periods of great variations in values of modes of climate variability, especially the Monthly Niño3.4 Index and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), both having a robust influence across the region. Moreover, the probable rainfall in the time series with trends was different in most months before and after the breakpoint. After the breakpoint, probable rainfall was lower, influenced by the breakpoint year (size of the series before and after the breakpoint), which mainly occurred in the 1980s and 1990s and presented a warm phase and a greater number of El Niño events. The MK and MMK trend tests showed the ability to detect trends, although there is no established standard on which test or version to use due to self‐correlated, nonhomogeneous series with nonrandom or nonindependent data. Rainfall is an important variable for water and food security and in the monitoring of natural disasters. The changes detected in this study can be used as reference information for public policies on water resources and future studies for Alagoas and similar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic Niño is a leading mode of climate variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean with important regional impacts. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) connected with Atlantic Niño exhibit notable multi‐time scale variations, including a quasi‐linear warming trend and sub‐annual to interdecadal variability associated with different physical processes. Contrasting the tropical Pacific SST associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has a weak trend and quasi‐periodic oscillatory variability with a period of 2–7 years, the ATL3 index, the primary index for monitoring the Atlantic Niño, has no dominant time scale, that is likely responsible for its low prediction skills. Following the same spirit as the relative Niño3.4 index, we demonstrate that a relative ATL3 index, which is defined as the difference between the raw ATL3 index and the global SST anomaly, provides distinct advantages for monitoring the sub‐annual‐to‐interdecadal variations for Atlantic Niño in real time. Plain Language Summary: As El Niño's little brother, Atlantic Niño affects the climate variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the South American and West African coastal countries. Different from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, a unique feature of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) connected with Atlantic Niño is the distinct variations at different time scales, ranging from monthly to multi‐decadal. Interestingly, the amplitudes of the variations for the primary SST index for monitoring Atlantic Niño (ATL3) are comparable at sub‐annual and interannual time scales, making Atlantic Niño's prediction more challenging and with much lower skill than ENSO. Despite the inherent prediction and monitoring challenges for Atlantic Niño, we proposed a relative Atlantic Niño index, which is defined as the difference between the raw ATL3 index and the global averaged SST anomaly, as an improved metric to monitor the sub‐annual‐to‐interdecadal variations superimposed on the warming trend in real time. Key Points: The ATL3 index has no dominant time scales with an appreciable contribution from the linear trendCompared with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Niño has lower prediction skills with different seasonal variationA relative ATL3 index can be used to monitor the sub‐annual‐to‐interdecadal variations in Atlantic Niño in real time [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the global water cycle has been studied previously based on land and open ocean studies, here we use coastal satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) data to show that in global aggregate, SSS variations near coasts are strongly correlated with global water cycle variability driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This is a significant finding as we demonstrate that open ocean SSS variability is not as sensitive to ENSO and global water cycle variability as the coastal oceans at interannual timescales. Aggregated global coastal SSS could therefore be used as a proxy for detection of changes in the large‐scale cycling of water between the oceans and continents. Moreover, we identify major potential "hotspots" on land and in the coastal ocean that tend to drive global coastal salinity variability, and which may consequently be most sensitive to future physical and biological impacts of water cycle changes on the coastal oceans. Plain Language Summary: While the global water cycle has been studied from the land perspective and the open ocean perspective, we offer a novel analysis showing that the global coastal zone provides an opportunity to monitor aggregated water cycle variability. We show that most global sea surface salinity variability is concentrated near the coasts and that coastal salinity variations at interannual time scales are highly correlated to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with global river discharge being the connecting mechanism. Coastal salinity can thus be used to monitor global water cycle variability at interannual time scales. With global warming, changes in the water cycle and in ENSO's intensity and frequency are expected. The global coastal oceans may be where these changes are most detectable in aggregate, and coastal salinity measurements can be used as a valuable proxy by communities monitoring these changes. Key Points: Sea surface salinity (SSS) variability is more than 30 times higher at the coast than in the open oceanCoastal SSS variability is driven primarily by the terrestrial water cycle at interannual scales, unlike open ocean SSSEl Niño Southern Oscillation impacts coastal SSS via modulation of precipitation on land and subsequent river runoff [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) has long been associated with extra‐tropical air‐sea coupling processes, which are thought to influence the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we show that the PMM on seasonal to interannual timescales is closely associated with a newly proposed tropical mode known as the ENSO Combination mode (C‐mode), which arises from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the background annual cycle in the deep tropics. The PMM exhibits a remarkable resemblance with the C‐mode in atmospheric patterns, spectral characteristics, and local impacts. Based on a simple Hasselmann‐type model, we further demonstrate that the C‐mode‐related atmospheric anomalies can effectively drive PMM‐like sea surface temperature anomalies. As the C‐mode captures seasonally modulated ENSO characteristics, the seasonal‐to‐interannual PMM variability could naturally establish a connection with ENSO, thereby offering an alternative explanation for the observed relationship between PMM and ENSO. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies demonstrated that the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) is driven by the extratropical climate systems, which can impact the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropics. In our study, we establish a close connection between the PMM on seasonal‐to‐interannual timescales and a tropical atmospheric mode arising from the nonlinear interaction between ENSO and the background annual cycle (the ENSO Combination mode, C‐mode). The C‐mode closely resembles the PMM in terms of atmospheric patterns and spectral characteristics. We further demonstrate that the C‐mode could drive a PMM‐like SST pattern in the tropical Pacific. Consequently, we suggest that the PMM on seasonal‐to‐interannual timescales has tropical origins, thereby offering an alternative explanation for the relationship between the conventional PMM index and the mature phase of ENSO. Key Points: The spatiotemporal features of Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on seasonal‐to‐interannual timescales exhibit a remarkable resemblance with those of the tropical combination modeC‐mode‐related atmospheric anomalies are capable of inducing PMM‐like sea surface temperature changes in the tropical PacificEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s interaction with the annual cycle manifests in PMM‐related air‐sea conditions, which explains the observed ENSO‐PMM linkage [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean plays a central role in regulating the global overturing circulation, ventilating the deep ocean, and driving sea level rise by delivering heat to Antarctic ice shelves. Understanding heat and freshwater content in this region is key to monitoring these global processes and identifying multiyear changes; however, in-situ observations are limited, and often do not offer the spatial or temporal consistency needed to study long-term variability. Perturbations in steric height can reveal changes in oceanic heat and freshwater content inasmuch as they impact the density of the water column. Here, we show for the first time that the monthly steric height anomaly of the Southern Ocean south of 50°S can be assessed using altimetry and GRACE gravimetry data from 2002 to 2018. Steric height anomalies are validated against in-situ Argo float and CTD data from tagged elephant seals. We find good agreement in the ice-free ocean and parts of the seasonal ice zone, but that the uncertainty of steric height increases on the Antarctic continental shelf and within the permanent ice zone due to leakage error and anti-aliasing in GRACE. The open-ocean steric height anomalies exhibit spatio-temporally coherent patterns that: (i) capture the expected seasonal cycle of low (high) steric height in winter (summer); and (ii) reflect interannual anomalies in surface heat and freshwater content and wind forcing associated with positive and negative phases of the two major modes of Southern Hemisphere climate variability (the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies suggested that tropical sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) through mixing and entrainment and thus it may be a signal for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. This paper explores the influence of SSS on ENSO spring predictability barrier (SPB) using an empirical dynamic model ‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By coupling and decoupling SSS in the LIM, we find that tropical Pacific SSS plays a significant role in weakening both Central‐Pacific and Eastern‐Pacific ENSO SPB. The evolution of optimal initial structure also shows the importance of SSS dynamics in ENSO. We found an SSS mode that plays the dominant role in SSS impacting ENSO prediction. By the analysis of lead‐lag correlation, we find that this mode can induce easterlies during the spring, which finally leads to a La Niña‐like SST pattern in the winter through zonal advective and thermocline feedbacks. Plain Language Summary: The spring predictability barrier (SPB) is a phenomenon of forecast skill reduction of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when it comes to the boreal spring, regardless of the initial month. Sea surface salinity (SSS) can influence sea surface temperature by altering sea surface density and thus it may be a signal for ENSO prediction. Using a linear dynamical model, we find that SSS plays an important role in improving the forecast skill of ENSO and weakening SPB. We further find that SSS can induce the easterlies during the spring, which finally leads to a La Niña‐like SST pattern. Our study suggests that SSS can be used to predict ENSO about 1 year later. Key Points: A linear dynamical model suggests that taking sea surface salinity (SSS) into consideration can strongly weaken Central‐Pacific and Eastern‐Pacific El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier (SPB)A new SSS mode is found to be important for weakening ENSO SPBThe SSS mode can predict ENSO events about 1 year earlier by inducing sea surface temperature and wind anomalies in the early spring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is teleconnected to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this relationship is nonstationary and has shifted significantly in recent decades. Characterizing the drivers of such shifts is crucial for improving ASM prediction and extreme event preparedness. Paleoclimate records indicate a link between ASM strength and solar activity on multidecadal‐to‐centennial timescales, but 20th‐century data are too short to test mechanisms. Here we evaluate how solar irradiance influences the ASM‐ENSO relationship using last‐millennium paleoclimate data assimilation reconstructions and model simulations. We find that high solar irradiance weakens the ENSO‐East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) correlation, but strengthens the ENSO‐South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) correlation. Solar irradiance likely influences the strength of the ENSO‐EASM and ENSO‐SASM teleconnections via changes in the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the amplitude of ENSO events, respectively. We suggest a need for considering solar activity in decadal ASM rainfall predictions under global warming scenarios. Plain Language Summary: The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) affects over one‐third of the world's population, with significant environmental and economic impacts. The ASM is influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the ENSO‐ASM relationship has undergone notable changes in recent decades. Understanding the drivers of these changes is essential for improving ASM prediction. Previous studies based on individual records of past climate change have indicated a connection between ASM strength and solar activity over long periods, but 20th‐century instrumental data are too short to fully understand this link. In this study, we investigated the influence of solar activity on the ENSO‐ASM relationship using past climate records and model simulations spanning the last 1,000 years. We find that high solar irradiance weakens the ENSO‐East Asian summer monsoon relationship while strengthening the ENSO‐South Asian summer monsoon relationship. Solar irradiance might impact the strength of the ENSO‐ASM relationship by causing changes in the air pressure systems over the western Pacific and the intensity of ENSO events. These findings imply that solar activity, combined with global warming, will affect rainfall in the ASM region. It is crucial to consider solar activity in the long‐term prediction of ASM rainfall as the climate continues to warm. Key Points: Solar irradiance altered the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Asian summer monsoon relationship during the past millenniumHigh solar irradiance weakens (strengthens) the ENSO‐East Asian (South Asian) summer monsoon correlationSolar irradiance modulates the ENSO‐ASM teleconnection through changes in the Western Pacific Subtropical High and ENSO event amplitude [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internally generated radiative feedback at interannual timescales can influence climate sensitivity estimates. This study has clarified the mechanisms of variability in radiative feedback associated with the El Niño and Southern Oscillation based on preindustrial control simulations for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Radiative feedback showed large modulation with a comparable magnitude to the intermodel uncertainty associated with internal changes in the zonal gradient of the ocean thermocline and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific on interdecadal timescales. When the interdecadal SST anomalies in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific were simulated as positive and negative, respectively, the statistical properties of the interannual variations were also modified with diminished Walker circulation changes per unit of global mean surface temperature rise. Meanwhile, the enhanced local Hadley circulation led to a middle‐to upper‐level cloud decrease and a low‐level cloud increase in the subtropics, causing enhanced negative radiative feedback as a global average. Plain Language Summary: Global warming is usually estimated based on radiative feedbacks: how the climate system responds to external forcing. Even though internal variability can give non‐negligible uncertainty in its estimate, radiative feedbacks characterized by internal variability on interannual timescales such as El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) potentially contribute to its evaluation. This study clarifies the mechanism of variability on internally generated radiative feedbacks. Radiative feedbacks varied on interdecadal timescales associated with the pattern changes for the background sea surface temperature on the equatorial Pacific. Such background shift strengthens ENSO, thereby enhanced local Hadley circulation strengthens negative feedback. Key Points: Internally generated radiative feedbacks can fluctuate on interdecadal timescales in accordance with the background shiftThe background shift on the equatorial Pacific works to amplify the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Enhanced local Hadley circulation on the equatorial Pacific related to modulated ENSO strengthens negative feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unprecedented increase in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the warming climate yield stress to the system and pose severe threats to the marine ecosystem. Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) and Marine Cold Spells (MCSs) are two extreme events related to SST variability. For better management of ocean productivity, marine ecosystem, marine services, and fisheries, the understanding of seasonal discrepancies rather than annual documentation of MHWs and MCSs metrics is more utilitarian. This study documents the decadal changes in the MHWs and MCSs over the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) for all seasons. Additionally, highly intense events (based on intensity and duration) are identified and demonstrate the associated drivers. During the past two decades (1982–1990, 1991–2000), the MCSs were more frequent than MHWs in every season. However, in the recent two decades (2001–2010, 2011–2020), TIO become more prone to MHWs with considerably more frequent and prolonged events in JJAS months. Moreover, MCSs are disappearing from the TIO. It was noted that the choice of baseline period has an impact on the magnitude of MHWs and MCSs changes, but the spatial pattern (regions with high/low magnitude MHWs and MCSs) stays fairly constant in all baseline period sensitivity checks. The investigation of highly intense events reveals that MHWs and MCSs are produced and sustained by the same drivers when they are at their opposing edges. In general, the coherence effort from winds, net heat fluxes (shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux), mixed level depth, and mean sea level pressure contribute to the genesis of seasonal MHWs or MCSs events. Additionally, in some cases, a single driver (e.g., wind) may also play a crucial role in these extreme events. The remote climate modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation, also contribute significantly to the MHWs and MCSs. El Niño (La Niña) events not only increase the spatial coverage of MHWs (MCSs) but also increases the intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is devastating as it negatively impacts global climatic conditions, which can cause extreme events, including floods and droughts, which are harmful to the region's economy. Pakistan is also considered one of the climate change hotspot regions in the world. Therefore, the present study investigates the effect of the ENSO on extreme precipitation events across the Upper Indus Basin. We examined the connections between 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and two ENSO indicators, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). This analysis covers both annual and seasonal scales and spans the period from 1971 to 2019. Statistical tests (i.e., Mann–Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)) were used to observe the variations in the EPIs. The results revealed that the number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDDs) is increasing more than Consecutive Wet Days (CWDs); overall, the EPIs exhibited increasing trends, except for the Rx1 (max. 1-day precipitation) and Rx5 (max. 5-day precipitation) indices. The ENSO indicator ONI is a temperature-related ENSO index. The results further showed that the CDD value has a significant positive correlation with the SOI for most of the UIB (Upper Indus Basin) region, whereas for the CWD value, high elevated stations gave a positive relationship. A significant negative relationship was observed for the lower portion of the UIB. The Rx1 and Rx5 indices were observed to have a negative relationship with the SOI, indicating that El Nino causes heavy rainfall. The R95p (very wet days) and R99p (extreme wet days) indices were observed to have significant negative trends in most of the UIB. In contrast, high elevated stations depicted a significant positive relationship that indicates they are affected by La Nina conditions. The PRCPTOT index exhibited a negative relationship with the SOI, revealing that the El Nino phase causes wet conditions in the UIB. The ONI gave a significant positive relationship for the UIB region, reinforcing the idea that both indices exhibit more precipitation during El Nino. The above observations imply that while policies are being developed to cope with climate change impacts, the effects of the ENSO should also be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 ∘ C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and -ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, as represented by the Southern Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD), and SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean, identified by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our analysis reveals a significant inverse correlation between the SASD and Niño indices over a century, with multi-decadal variability that contradicts weak simultaneous correlations previously reported in the literature. The study also highlights a strengthening of their inverse correlations in the most recent two decades compared to the preceding two decades, which can be attributed to the shift in ENSO regime from more frequent eastern Pacific El Niño to central Pacific El Niño around the turn of the century. This shift helps set the stage for changes in convective activity in the critical region (20° S–40° S, 180°–140° W) of the central South Pacific Ocean, triggering wavetrains that propagate along different paths and ultimately contributing to different southern Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) and changes in anomalous SST patterns in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. These findings advance our understanding of the interactions between South Atlantic and Pacific SST variations, which strongly influence rainfall patterns particularly in South America and southern Africa and may improve sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation predictions in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a chemistry-climate model with a tagged stratospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) tracer that predicts distinct seasonal cycles in tropospheric N2O caused by descent of N2O-depleted stratospheric air in polar regions. We identify similar phenomena in recently available aircraft profiles from global campaigns and routine monitoring. Long-term atmospheric measurements from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global surface monitoring network provide additional support for a significant impact on surface N2O originating from the stratosphere. In the northern hemisphere, the NOAA surface N2O atmospheric growth rate anomaly is negatively correlated with the previous winter's polar lower stratospheric temperature. This negative correlation is consistent with increased (decreased) transport in years with a strong (weak) Brewer Dobson circulation of warm, N2O-depleted air from the middle and upper stratosphere into the lower stratosphere, with subsequent cross-tropopause transport of the N2O-depleted air into the troposphere. In the southern hemisphere, polar lower stratospheric temperature is correlated to monthly summertime anomalies in tropospheric N2O as it descends into its seasonal minimum, a result that is supported by aircraft data as well as the chemistry-climate model. However, the N2O atmospheric growth rate anomaly in the southern hemisphere is better correlated to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) index, as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation index, than to polar lower stratospheric temperature. These hemispheric differences in the factors influencing the N2O atmospheric growth rate are consistent with known atmospheric dynamics and the complex interaction of the QBO with the Brewer Dobson circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical Earth System Models (ESMs) are our best tool to predict the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration and its effect on Global temperature. However, large uncertainties exist among ESMs in the variance of the year-to-year changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration. This prevents us from precisely understanding its past evolution and from accurately estimating its future evolution. Here we analyze various ESMs simulations from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP6) to understand the origins of the inter-model uncertainty in the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Considering the observed period 1986-2013, we show that most of this uncertainty is coming from the simulation of the land CO2 flux internal variability. Although models agree that those variations are driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), similar ENSO-related surface temperature and precipitation teleconnections across models drive different land CO2 fluxes, pointing to the land vegetation models as the dominant source of the inter-model uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2020, the Pampas ecoregion, a highly productive area of Argentina, has endured its most severe drought in the past century. Our understanding of the impact of droughts on physicochemical changes in lotic environments remains limited, and this knowledge gap becomes even more pronounced when considering the concurrent urbanisation and industrialisation that alter land-use patterns and pose threats to water quality. This study aims to analyse, on a short-term basis, how hydrodynamics and physicochemical characteristics of streams, exposed to different land uses, are affected by drought. During the winter of 2022, we conducted three samplings in streams within the Samborombón River basin. We selected three streams influenced by rural land use and three influenced by urban development. Our data collection encompassed meteorological information, the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and the Palmer drought severity index. We measured hydrological and physicochemical variables at each sampling site. Our analysis identified an extreme drought period coinciding with 'La Niña' conditions during the sampling period. The annual accumulated precipitation for this period was notably lower, at 622 mm, compared with the historical average (1958–2022) of 1006 mm for this region. Hydrological variables exhibited significant differences between urban and rural streams. Urban streams maintained a consistent water flow, while rural streams were predominantly characterised by disconnected pools. Additionally, urban streams exhibited significantly greater Secchi depth and higher nutrient concentrations, whereas rural streams displayed elevated pH, conductivity and turbidity levels. These findings underscore the crucial role of urban effluents in sustaining a base flow during extreme drought conditions. However, this base flow is associated with poorer water quality, disrupting the natural chemical and hydrological dynamics of the region during drought events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the physical mechanisms of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its evolution is a major concern within the climate community. Its main importance relies on its ability to act as a source of predictability within the intra-seasonal time-scale in tropical and extratropical regions, therefore filling the gap between weather and climate forecasts. However, most atmospheric general circulation models fail to correctly represent MJO's evolution, and their prediction skills are still far from MJO's theoretical predictability. In this work we infer low dimensional models of the MJO from data by applying a recently developed machine learning technique, the Sparse Identification of Non-linear Dynamics (SINDy). We use the daily-mean outgoing longwave radiation MJO index (OMI) as input data to infer bi-dimensional climatological models of the MJO, and analyse the inferred models during El Niño and La Niña years. This approach allows us to diagnose the MJO's behaviour in OMI's phase space. Our results show that MJO can be most frequently represented by a harmonic oscillator, which represents the MJO's eastward propagation and characteristic period. Upon this basic oscillatory behaviour, we find that small non-linear corrections play a fundamental role in representing MJO's non-uniform speed of propagation, explaining its acceleration over the Pacific Ocean region. Particularly, we find that MJO's evolution is most frequently non-linear [linear] during El Niño [La Niña] years. Overall, our work shows that SINDy can robustly model MJO's evolution as a linear oscillator with small non-linear corrections, contributing to understand the MJO's dynamics and dependency on El Niño-Southern Oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) affect the average position of the main propagation trajectories of synoptic vortices in the Northern Hemisphere over a time period from 2 weeks to 2 months. This time scale is considered one of the most difficult periods in forecasting. Based on the analysis of data from idealized numerical experiments on the Isca platform, we have studied the processes of formation of anomalous positions of storm tracks in the Atlantic–European region as a response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and events of extremely strong SPV during various phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that in winter it is impossible to unambiguously talk about the southward displacement of the Atlantic storm track during El Niño events without taking into account the intensity of SPV. The intensity of SPV, expressed as the zonal component of wind speed, averaged along 60° N at the level of 10 hPa, has its maximum predictive potential during El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have demonstrated that the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation varies considerably during the boreal winter. Compared to the late winter (January–March) relationship, the early winter (November–December) teleconnection is more uncertain and less understood. In this paper, we revisited this early winter regional ENSO teleconnection using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis (ERA5) datasets for the period 1979–2022. It was found that the signal projected well onto the second dominant mode of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), rather than the previously mentioned North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This influence is associated with ENSO-induced dipolar convection anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea (GMCA), which leads to an EAP via exciting Rossby waves propagating northward into the North Atlantic. We further revealed that this ENSO–EAP teleconnection underwent a pronounced interdecadal strengthening around the late 1990s. Prior to the late 1990s, the convective response to ENSO in the GMCA was weak. The atmospheric responses over the Euro-Atlantic were mainly driven by the ENSO-induced convective forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean, which favors an NAO-like pattern. In contrast, since the late 1990s, ENSO has induced stronger precipitation anomalies in the GMCA, which exert a dominant influence on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation and produce an EAP. These results have useful implications for the further understanding of ENSO-related early winter atmospheric and climate variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climatic circulation indices play a major role in determining regional and global climate conditions. These atmospheric circulation patterns exhibit substantial variability, covering a wide geographical area and affecting weather-related events. The primary goal of this study was to examine and characterize various global climatic variability indices during the 1950 to 2020 period (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO; Southern Oscillation Index, SOI; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; Atlantic Meridional Mode, AMM; and Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD). Also, this article try to investigating the link between these global climatic indices. Trend analysis showed that the ENSO index exhibits the highest recurrence frequency of correlation relationships with the other yearly global indices with significance at the 95% and 99% levels, while the NAO index exhibits the lowest recurrence frequency. On a seasonal basis, most indices demonstrate more abrupt changes during the winter season than during the summer. An increase occurred in events of abrupt changes in these indices over the last two decades (2000 to 2020), especially annually and in summer. The SOI exhibits the largest number of abrupt changes throughout the entire study period, spanning from positive to negative significant trends, whereas the IOD did not exhibit abrupt changes annually. Increasing and decreasing trends in the global climatic circulation indices may be related to natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Regarding both the correlation coefficient (CC) and partial correlation results, there existed a highly negative association between the ENSO and SOI in the annual, winter and summer time series. On the other hand, there is no relationship between ENSO and NAO. Furthermore, on an annual basis, there existed a highly negative association between the NAO and AMM and a less negative but still statistically significant association between these indices during the winter and summer seasons, respectively. Therefore, through the Azore high, the NAO could promote AMM. Moreover, when the NAO, AMM, and SOI are held constant, a positive and robust correlation is reached between the ENSO and IOD in winter season. Therefore, a developing IOD is intensified and sustained during the onset of an El Niño event in winter season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-term vertical ozone observational dataset has been provided during 2001–2019 by ozonesonde measurements in Beijing on the North China Plain. Previous studies using this dataset primarily focused on the vertical characteristics of climatological ozone and its variation; however, the driving factors of ozone variation have not been well discussed. In this study, by applying the wavelet analysis method (including continuous wavelet transform and cross wavelet) and sliding correlation coefficients to ~20 years of ozonesonde measurements collected in Beijing, we analyzed the dominant modes of ozone column variability within three height ranges over Beijing (total column ozone: TOT; stratospheric column ozone: SCO; and tropospheric column ozone: TCO). Moreover, we also preliminarily discussed the relationship between these three ozone columns and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), and 11-year solar activity cycle. The results revealed that the ozone columns within the three height ranges predominantly adhered to interannual variability patterns, and the short-term variabilities in TOT and SCO may have been related to eruptive volcanic activity. In comparison to the TOT and SCO, the TCO was more susceptible to the forcing influences of high-frequency factors such as pollutant transport. Similar to the results in other mid-latitude regions, strong ENSO and QBO signals were revealed in the interannual ozone column variability over Beijing. The TOT and SCO showed positive anomalous responses to ENSO warm-phase events, and the peak of the ENSO warm phase led the winter peaks of the TOT and SCO by approximately 3–6 months. During the strong cold–warm transition phase in 2009–2012, the TOT and SCO showed a significant positive correlation with the ENSO index. The strong seasonality of the meridional circulation process driven by the QBO led to a significant positive correlation between the QBO index and the TOT and SCO in the interannual cycle, except for two periods of abnormal QBO fluctuations in 2010–2012 and 2015–2017, whereas the TCO showed a time-lagged correlation of approximately 3 months in the annual cycle relative to the QBO due to the influence of the thermodynamic tropopause. In addition, analysis of the F10.7 index and the ozone columns revealed that the ozone columns over Beijing exhibited lagged responses to the peaks of sunspot activity, and there was no obvious correlation between ozone columns and 11-year solar activity cycle. Given the complex driving mechanism of the climatic factors on local ozone variability, the preliminary results obtained in this study still require further validation using longer time series of observational data and the combination of chemical models and more auxiliary data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single model initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) are a useful approach to understand the roles of forced responses and internal variability in historical and future climate change. Here, we produce one of the largest ensembles thus far using the MIROC6 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (MIROC6-LE). The total experimental period of MIROC6-LE is longer than 76 000 years. MIROC6-LE consists of a long preindustrial control run, 50-member historical simulations, 8 single forcing historical experiments with 10 or 50 members, 5 future scenario experiments with 50 members and 3 single forcing future experiments with 50 members. Here, we describe the experimental design. The output data of most of the experiments are freely available to the public. This dataset would be useful to a wide range of research communities. We also demonstrate some examples of initial analyses. Specifically, we confirm that the linear additivity of the forcing-response relationship holds for the 1850–2020 trends of the annual mean values and extreme indices of surface air temperature and precipitation by analyzing historical fully forced runs and the sum of single forced historical runs. To isolate historical anthropogenic signals of annual mean and extreme temperature for 2000–2020 relative to 1850–1900, ensemble sizes of 4 and 15, respectively, are sufficient in most of the world. Historical anthropogenic signals of annual mean and extreme precipitation are significant with the 50-member ensembles in 76 % and 69 % of the world, respectively. Fourteen members are sufficient to examine differences in changes in annual mean values and extreme indices of temperature and precipitation between the shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp), ssp585 and ssp126, in most of the world. Ensembles larger than 50 members are desirable for investigations of differences in annual mean and extreme precipitation changes between ssp126 and ssp119. Historical and future changes in internal variability, represented by departures from the ensemble mean, are analyzed with a focus on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global annual mean temperature and precipitation. An ensemble size of 31 is large enough to detect ENSO intensification from preindustrial conditions to 1951–2000, from 1951–2000 to 2051–2100 in all future experiments, and from low- to high-emission future scenario experiments. The single forcing historical experiments with 27 members can isolate ENSO intensification due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings. Future changes in the global mean temperature variability are discernible with 23 members under all future experiments, while 50 members are not sufficient for detecting changes in the global mean precipitation variability in ssp119 and ssp126. We also confirm that these temperature and precipitation variabilities are not precisely analyzed when detrended anomalies from the long-term averages are used due to interannual climate responses to the historical natural forcing, which highlights the importance of large ensembles for assessing internal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf of Thailand is ideal for studying eustatic sea level fluctuations in Southeast Asia due to its shallow basin and tectonic stability. However, our understanding of how this region's relative sea level (RSL) has fluctuated over the Holocene epoch is far from complete. In this study, we used lithostratigraphy, loss on ignition, grain size, and pollen analyses to reconstruct the environmental changes in the Sam Roi Yot wetland, which was significantly influenced by seawater intrusion, driven by fluctuations in RSL in the Gulf of Thailand. Therefore, the analyzed pollen records of the sediment core from the wetland reflected variabilities in the RSL in the Gulf of Thailand. Subsequently, we found that after a sea level highstand prior to 4000 cal y BP, the RSL gradually fell with two significant regressions at c. 2950 and 1850–1450 cal y BP before rising at 1450–1050 cal y BP and declining after that. The inconsistency between RSL reconstruction based on our results and the global sea level changes simulated by the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model further suggests that long–term El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) variabilities may have played a significant role in sea level changes in the Gulf of Thailand over the Late-Holocene period. Thus, during extended El Niño or La Niña conditions, the sea level would have been consistently lower or higher than expected from eustatic and isostatic processes alone. Overall, this study emphasizes the importance of considering regional factors such as ENSO to understand sea level changes in Southeast Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological rehabilitation is widely used to improve soil conditions and promote passive recovery. However, climate variability that is seldom considered in restoration planning can affect hydrological rehabilitation goals.We used long‐term observations to assess the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate variability and hydrologic rehabilitation on tree recruitment and landscape cover changes in a South American mangrove complex.ENSO climate variability and rehabilitation hydrology measure types collectively explained 88%, 90% and 70% of mangrove cover change rates in the whole mangrove system and porewater salinity in basin and riverine sites, respectively. Therefore, major and detrimental rehabilitation measures counterbalanced or reinforced the effects of ENSO phase intensity on the system. In addition, climate variability explained the rates of change of salinity in the basin site (58%).Porewater salinity, its rates of change and ENSO explained 28%–75% of propagule density and seedling/sapling growth rates of Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa and Avicennia germinans in representative basin and riverine sites.Tree colonization in the basin site, under high irradiance, was triggered by high seedling/saplings diameter growth rates (0.5–1.6 cm year−1) of L. racemosa and R. mangle generated by strong porewater salinity drop rates during consecutive La Niña episodes, while widespread tree mortality occurred during a strong El Niño. Tree size categories were more stable to ENSO climate variability in the riverine site.Synthesis and implications. This study shows that hydrologic rehabilitation effectiveness depended on its influence on freshwater flows and on the effects of ENSO climate variability. ENSO, porewater salinity and its rates of change regulated tree recruitment and landscape cover changes. Thus, besides porewater salinity, rates of change of porewater salinity, light availability and climate variability need to be included in monitoring and mangrove restoration planning to better understand and predict mangrove trajectories. Climate‐smart restoration in mangroves should implement the types of hydrological rehabilitation measures that offset or avoid reinforcing ENSO strong phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the tropical Indo‐Pacific, we explore the variations of Solar‐Induced Fluorescence (SIF), CO2, and precipitation during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events verse other times. Based on various data sets, we analyze the time series of deseasonalized precipitation, vertical velocity, SIF, and CO2 across the Indo‐Pacific region. Our analysis reveals that there is less precipitation, more sinking air, lower SIF, and higher carbon dioxide over the Indo‐Pacific region during the El Niño events compared to other times. We also explore the spatial patterns of different variables to gain a deeper understanding of their relationships. The spatial analysis suggests that less precipitation resulting from predominant sinking air not only leads to lower SIF values by reducing photosynthetic activities but also triggers more biomass burning, which contribute to an increase in atmospheric CO2 levels across most areas of the Indo‐Pacific region. The comparative study between observational analyses and numerical simulation by the NOAA CarbonTracker model indicates that the model can simulate the increase of atmospheric column CO2 during the El Niño event, although there are some difficulties in capturing the correct spatial pattern. The results of this study can significantly enhance our understanding of the spatial‐temporal variabilities of atmospheric CO2 concentration and the observational characteristics can be used to enhance models. Furthermore, the complex interactions between ENSO and other variables revealed in this study improve our understanding of how ENSO influences the biosphere and carbon cycle. Key Points: El Niño events suppress Solar‐Induced Fluorescence (photosynthetic activity) and amplify atmospheric CO2 across the Indo‐Pacific regionAdditionally, the release of CO2 from biomass burning during El Niño months contributes to the elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 in the Indo‐Pacific regionModel captures the dominant features of the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on CO2 over the Indo‐Pacific region. However, it exhibits limitation in reproducing the spatial pattern of CO2 variations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]