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210. Dynamic‐landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change.

Author

Bonnot, Thomas W., Thompson, Frank R., and Millspaugh, Joshua J.

Abstract

The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic‐landscape metapopulation models (DLMPs) to predict responses of two declining songbird species in the central hardwoods region of the United States to changes in forest conditions from climate change. We modeled wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and prairie warbler (Setophaga discolor) population dynamics and distribution throughout the central hardwoods based on estimates of habitat and demographics derived from landscapes projected through 2100 under a current climate scenario and two future climate change scenarios. Climate change, natural forest succession, and forest management interacted to change forest structure and composition over time, variably affecting the distribution and amount of habitat of the two birds. The resulting changes in habitat and metapopulation processes produced contrasting predictions for future populations. Wood thrush, a forest generalist, showed little response to climate‐driven forest change but declined by >25% due to reduced productivity associated with existing forest fragmentation across much of the region. Prairie warblers initially declined due to loss of habitat resulting from current land management; however, after 2050 cumulative effects of climate change on forest structure created enough habitat in source landscapes to restore population growth. These species‐specific responses were the result of interactions among climate, landscape, and population processes. We suggest relationships between climate change, succession, and land management are species specific and important determinants of future wildlife populations and that DLMPs are a comprehensive approach that can capture such processes to generate more realistic predictions of populations under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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213. Threat of climate change on a songbird population through its impacts on breeding.

Author

Bonnot, Thomas W., Cox, YV. Andrew, Thompson, Frank R., and Millspaugh, Joshua J.

Abstract

Understanding global change processes that threaten species viability is critical for assessing vulnerability and deciding on appropriate conservation actions. Here we combine individual-based and metapopulalion models to estimate the effects of climate change on annual breeding productivity and population viability up to 2100 of a common forest songbird, the Acadian flycatcher (Empidonux virescens), across the Central Hardwoods ecoregion, a 39.5-million-hectare area of temperate and broadleaf forests in the USA. Our approach integrates local-scale, individual breeding productivity, estimated from empirically derived demographic parameters that vary with landscape and climatic factors (such as forest cover, daily temperature), into a dynamic-landscape metapopulation model that projects growth of the regional population over time. We show that warming temperatures under a worst-case scenario with unabated climate change could reduce breeding productivity to an extent that this currently abundant species will suffer population declines substantial enough to pose a significant risk of quasi-extinction from the region in the twenty-first century. However, we also show that this risk is greatly reduced for scenarios where emissions and warming are curtailed. These results highlight the importance of considering both direct and indirect effects of climate change when assessing the vulnerability of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2018

228. Density and nest survival of golden‐cheeked warblers: Spatial scale matters

Author

Reidy, Jennifer L., Thompson, Frank R., and O'Donnell, Lisa

Abstract

Conservation and management plans often rely on indicators such as species occupancy or density to define habitat quality, ignoring factors that influence reproductive success, and potentially limiting conservation achievements. We examined relationships between predicted density and nest survival with environmental features at multiple spatial scales for the golden‐cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) in a large preserve within an urbanizing landscape. Larger‐scale features of the forest and landscape composition best predicted density, whereas small‐scale vegetation features best predicted nest success. Predicted warbler density was more influenced by vegetation structure at the forest (100‐m) and landscape (1‐km) scales than at the plot (5–11.3‐m) scale. Predicted warbler density increased with greater woodland cover (100‐m), average canopy height (100‐m), and mixed woodland cover (1‐km). Average predicted density derived from distance sampling models fit to count data across 1,506 points surveyed during 2011–2014 was 0.21 males/ha (95% CI = 0.20–0.22). Nest survival (n= 610 nests) was strongly correlated with vegetation and terrain characteristics at the plot scale. Period nest survival decreased 28% and increased 36% and 21% across the range of slope, woody understory, and juniper basal area, respectively. Daily nest survival averaged 0.97 (0.96–0.98) but declined throughout the breeding season and varied annually (2011–2015). We recommend management for a high percentage of closed‐canopy, tall mixed juniper (Juniperus ashei)‐oak (Quercusspp.) woodland at the forest and landscape scales to support high densities of warblers. We also recommend protecting upland woodlands with a well‐developed woody understory and greater basal area of junipers because these characteristics were associated with greater nest success. © 2017 The Wildlife Society. Large‐scale forest structure and landscape composition best predicted golden‐cheeked warbler density, Texas, USA, whereas small‐scale vegetation characteristics around the nest best predicted nest survival. Land managers should consider multiple spatial scales when managing juniper‐oak woodlands and defining habitat quality.

Published
2017
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247. Conserving migratory land birds in the New World: Do we know enough?

Author

Faaborg, John, primary, Holmes, Richard T., additional, Anders, Angela D., additional, Bildstein, Keith L., additional, Dugger, Katie M., additional, Gauthreaux, Sidney A., additional, Heglund, Patricia, additional, Hobson, Keith A., additional, Jahn, Alex E., additional, Johnson, Douglas H., additional, Latta, Steven C., additional, Levey, Douglas J., additional, Marra, Peter P., additional, Merkord, Christopher L., additional, Nol, Erica, additional, Rothstein, Stephen I., additional, Sherry, Thomas W., additional, Sillett, T. Scott, additional, Thompson, Frank R., additional, and Warnock, Nils, additional

Published
2010
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249. Recent advances in understanding migration systems of New World land birds

Author

Faaborg, John, primary, Holmes, Richard T., additional, Anders, Angela D., additional, Bildstein, Keith L., additional, Dugger, Katie M., additional, Gauthreaux, Sidney A., additional, Heglund, Patricia, additional, Hobson, Keith A., additional, Jahn, Alex E., additional, Johnson, Douglas H., additional, Latta, Steven C., additional, Levey, Douglas J., additional, Marra, Peter P., additional, Merkord, Christopher L., additional, Nol, Erica, additional, Rothstein, Stephen I., additional, Sherry, Thomas W., additional, Sillett, T. Scott, additional, Thompson, Frank R., additional, and Warnock, Nils, additional

Published
2010
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