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Changes in precipitation and its causes under future warming scenarios in Northwest China are of great concern. Based on the dynamical downscaling results of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), this study quantitatively identified the contribution of local evaporation and external moisture transport to future precipitation changes in western and eastern Northwest China (WNWC and ENWC) by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio (PRR). The results showed that the WRF could reasonably reproduce the observed spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and evaporation during the historical reference period of 1985–2014. Under the 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios from 2071 to 2100, there is a stronger precipitation growth in WNWC than in ENWC, and the PRR generally increases in WNWC and decreases in ENWC. Further analysis indicates that external moisture transport is the dominant contributor to the increased precipitation in all cases with its contribution exceeding 70%, while the difference of precipitation growth in two sub‐regions arises from the summer moisture transport at the southern boundary as the inflow in WNWC and outflow in ENWC. Compared to the negligible contribution of evaporation in ENWC (less than 7%), evaporation contributes more than 23% to the precipitation increase in WNWC under future warming scenarios, which may be related to the strong land‐atmosphere coupling there. Furthermore, an additional warming of 0.5°C leads to an increase in precipitation for both sub‐regions, which is mainly due to the contribution of external moisture transport. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we discuss the relative contributions of evaporation and moisture transport to precipitation changes in Northwest China under 1.5/2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios. With Northwest China (NWC) dividing it into two sub‐regions of western and eastern parts, we find that although the western NWC has less precipitation during the reference period of 1985–2014, the increase in precipitation is about twice that of the eastern NWC under the warming scenarios. The contribution of evaporation to the increased precipitation is greater in the western NWC compared with the reference period, which may indicate the accelerating hydrological cycle in western NWC. Moisture transport is the main contributor to the increase in precipitation and is also the main reason for the difference in precipitation changes between the two sub‐regions, mainly due to differences in summer moisture transport across the southern boundary. This work provides a scientific basis for assessing water resources in Northwest China under future warming scenarios. Key Points: External moisture transport contributes more than 70% of precipitation in Northwest China, both in terms of mean and variabilityContribution of evaporation to the precipitation increase is stronger in western Northwest China, due to its strong land‐atmosphere couplingThe difference in moisture transport between the two regions is mainly due to changes in southern border moisture transport in summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the utility calculation principle of travelers from the perspective of mental accounting and proposes a travel choice behavior model that considers travel time and cost (MA-TC model). Then, a questionnaire is designed to analyze the results of the travel choice under different decision-making scenarios. Model parameters are estimated using nonlinear regression, and the utility calculation principles are developed under different hypothetical scenarios. Then, new expressions for the utility function under deterministic and risky conditions are presented. For verification, the nonlinear correlation coefficient and hit rate are used to compare the proposed MA-TC model with the other two models: (1) the classical prospect theory with travel time and cost (PT-TC model) and (2) mental accounting based on the original hedonic editing criterion (MA-HE model). The results show that model parameters under deterministic and risky conditions are pretty different. In the deterministic case, travelers have similar sensitivity to the change in gain and loss of travel time and cost. The prediction accuracy of the MA-TC model is 3% lower than the PT-TC model and 6% higher than the MA-HE model. Under risky conditions, travelers are more sensitive to the change in loss than to the change in gain. Additionally, travelers tend to overestimate small probabilities and underestimate high probabilities when losing more than when gaining. The prediction accuracy of the MA-TC model is 2% higher than the PT-TC model and 6% higher than the MA-HE model., Author(s): Shixu Liu (corresponding author) [1]; Jianchao Zhu [1]; Said M. Easa [2]; Lidan Guo [3]; Shuyu Wang [1]; Haoyu Wang [1]; Yijian Xu [1] 1. Introduction It is widely [...]

Wind and solar energy are crucial for meeting the growing energy demand and mitigating the impact of climate change, and their sources show a climate‐dependence. Here, based on the outputs from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by three global climate models within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments‐East Asia (CORDEX‐EA‐II), the effects of future climate change on wind power density (WPD) and photovoltaic power potential (PVP) in China under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario are comprehensively investigated, and the sources of uncertainty are also quantified. Results show that all RCMs can reproduce the observed WPD and PVP in China by employing the Quantile Delta Mapping method for wind speed simulations. For the future projections, the annual averages of WPD and PVP in China tend to decrease by −11.67% to −1.7% and −4.6% to −1.12%, respectively, with more significant reduction under the RCP8.5 than under the RCP2.6. Note that uncertainties exist among the RCMs' simulations in terms of future projections and long‐term trends. Further analysis reveals that the uncertainty in both WPD and PVP projections are primarily driven by the internal variability in most sub‐regions except the Tibetan Plateau, where GCM uncertainty and emission scenarios play the dominant role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projection, respectively. This study highlights the potential benefits of controlling greenhouse gas emissions in enhancing and stabilizing renewable energy in China. Plain Language Summary: China has set an ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which requires an accelerated energy transition toward wind power and photovoltaic. However, the sources of wind and solar energy are sensitive to weather and climate, and future potential of wind and solar energy in China under a warming climate remains uncertain, posing a significant concern for the decision‐makers. Based on high‐resolution multiple regional climate models (RCMs) projections, we found that the annual average of wind power density (WPD) and photovoltaic power potential (PVP) are expected to decrease in the future by approximately −11.67% to −1.7% and −4.6% to −1.12%, respectively. There are notable uncertainties among the multi‐RCM projections, and the internal variability is the main source of uncertainty for most sub‐regions except the Tibetan Plateau, where GCM uncertainty and emission scenarios play the dominant role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projection, respectively. Our results highlight the advantages of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to enhance and stabilize renewable energy sources in China. Key Points: The annual average wind and solar energy in China are expected to decrease in the future based on a multi‐RCM ensembleThe internal variability plays a dominated role in the uncertainty of WPD and PVP projections in most sub‐regionsThe uncertainty in WPD and PVP projections over the TP is driven primarily by the different GCMs and emission scenarios, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]