201. Downscaling and projection of summer rainfall in Eastern China using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model
- Author
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Mei Ding, Lianyi Guo, Zhihong Jiang, Weilin Chen, Laurent Li, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster [Nanjing University] (KLME - NUIST), Department of Chemistry, Indiana University, Indiana University [Bloomington], and Indiana University System-Indiana University System
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Percentile ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Global warming ,0207 environmental engineering ,02 engineering and technology ,Forcing (mathematics) ,[SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology ,01 natural sciences ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,Precipitation ,020701 environmental engineering ,Hidden Markov model ,Projection (set theory) ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,Intensity (heat transfer) ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Downscaling - Abstract
International audience; A nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) is used to stochastically simulate summer (June–August) daily precipitations in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River in Eastern China, with driving forcing from three global climate models (GCMs). Simulations cover the historical period from 1961 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2100 following the RCP4.5 scenario. The model is first evaluated against data from the regional observation network. The results show that NHMM effectively enhances the ability of GCMs in simulating summer daily rainfall in the region. For future projection at different time horizons of the 21st century, the spectral distribution of regional precipitations (in function of their intensity) shows consistent changes with a decrease of occurrence probability for light rain (10 mm/day). Among variables of interest, total precipitation (PRCPTOT), precipitation intensity, the number of rainy days for daily precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10mm) and 95th percentile of precipitation (P95), all show a gradually increasing trend in the 21st century, and geographically an eastward gradient with smaller increase (or even weak decrease) for the west and larger increase for the east. It is noted that obvious changes occur in the eastern region with 95% significance level, and PRCPTOT or R10mm increases by 40–60% in the late 21st century. Further quantitative assessment is performed for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C. The half‐degree additional warming makes R10mm change by −3.7, 2.4 and 12.1% over western, central and eastern regions, respectively.
- Published
- 2018
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