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Abstract Background Peer support can enable patient engagement with healthcare services, particularly for marginalised populations. In this randomised controlled trial, the efficacy of a peer support intervention at promoting successful engagement with clinical services for chronic hepatitis C was assessed. Methods In London, UK, potential participants were approached through outreach services for problematic drug use and homelessness. Individuals positive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) after confirmatory testing were randomised using an online service to the intervention (peer support) or standard of care. The primary outcome of interest was successful engagement with clinical hepatitis services. The study was non-blinded. Absolute differences were calculated using a generalised linear model and the results compared to logistic regression. Results Three hundred sixty-four individuals consented to participate. One hundred one had chronic hepatitis C and were randomised, 63 to receive the intervention (peer support). A successful outcome was achieved by 23 individuals in this arm (36.5%) and seven (18.4%) receiving the standard of care, giving an absolute increase of 18.1% (95% confidence interval 1.0–35.2%, p value = 0.04). This was mirrored in the logistic regression (odds ratio 2.55 (0.97–6.70), p = 0.06). No serious adverse events were reported. Conclusions Peer support can improve the engagement of patients with chronic HCV with healthcare services. Trial registration ISRCTN24707359. Registered 19th October 2012.

Background. GPs need evidence and guidance to help them diagnose and manage Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS)/ME appropriately.Objectives. The aim of this survey was to obtain baseline data and identify the factors associated with GPs' attitudes to and knowledge of CFS/ME. The attitude of GPs to the condition is an important indicator of likely prognosis.Methods. A postal questionnaire was sent to 1054 GPs served by Taunton, Bristol and Gloucester laboratories. GPs' attitudes to nine statements about CFS/ME were assessed and the factors associated with positive or negative responses were determined. Knowledge of the clinical features was also assessed.Results. 811 GPs (77%) returned the questionnaire. 48% of GPs did not feel confident with making a diagnosis of CFS/ME and 41% did not feel confident in treatment. 72% of GPs accepted CFS/ME as a recognisable clinical entity and those GPs had significantly more positive attitudes. Three other key factors that were significantly, positively associated with GPs' attitudes were knowing someone socially with CFS/ME, being male and seeing more patients with the condition in the last year.Conclusion. Despite the publication of guidance for GPs on CFS/ME, confidence with making a diagnosis and management was found to be low. Educational initiatives and guidance for GPs should stress the importance of accepting CFS/ME as a recognisable clinical entity, as this is linked to having a positive attitude and could lead to improved confidence to make a diagnosis and treat CFS/ME patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Helicobacter pylori has been implicated in the pathogenesis of Parkinson's disease (PD). Its eradication, in a randomized placebo-controlled trial, improved PD hypokinesia. Helicobacter species zoonosis might explain excess mortality from PD and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in livestock, but not arable, farmers. Indeed, Helicobacter is causally-associated with gastric lymphoma. We have previously shown that the relative-frequency, H. suis to H. pylori, was 10-times greater in 60 PD-patients than in 256 controls. We now go on to evaluate the pathological significance of H. suis, detected in gastric-biopsy DNA-extracts by ureA-based species-specific qPCR, validated by amplicon sequencing. The methodology had been cross-validated by a carR-based PCR. The pathological significance is put in context of H. pylori detection [urea-breath-test (UBT) with biopsy-culture, and, if negative, PCR], and the potential reservoir in pigs. Here, we explore, in these 60 PD-patients, associations of H. suis status with all-cause-mortality, and with orthostatic cardiovascular and blood profiling. H. suis had been detected in 19 of the 60 PD-patients on one or more occasion, only two (with co-existent H. pylori) being UBT positive. We found that the hazard-of-death (age-at-diagnosis- and gender-adjusted) was 12 (95% CI 1,103) times greater (likelihood-ratio test, P = 0.005) with H. suis-positivity (6/19) than with negativity (2/40: one lost to follow-up). UBT-values did not influence the hazard. H. suis-positivity was associated with lower standing mean-arterial-pressure [6 (1, 11) mmHg], H. pylori-positivity having no effect. The lower total lymphocyte count with H. pylori-positivity [−8 (−1, −14) %] was not seen with H. suis, where T-cell counts were higher [24 (2, 52) %]. Regarding the potential zoonotic reservoir in the UK, Helicobacter-like-organism frequency was determined in freshly-slaughtered pigs, nature ascertained by sequencing. Organisms immunostaining for Helicobacter, with corkscrew morphology typical of non-H. pylori Helicobacter, were seen in 47% of 111 pig-antra. We conclude that H. suis is associated with all-cause-mortality in PD and has a potential zoonotic reservoir.

Background: Real-time modelling is an essential component of the public health response to an outbreak of pandemic influenza in the UK. A model for epidemic reconstruction based on realistic epidemic surveillance data has been developed, but this model needs enhancing to provide spatially disaggregated epidemic estimates while ensuring that real-time implementation is feasible. Objectives: To advance state-of-the-art real-time pandemic modelling by (1) developing an existing epidemic model to capture spatial variation in transmission, (2) devising efficient computational algorithms for the provision of timely statistical analysis and (3) incorporating the above into freely available software. Methods: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling was used to derive Bayesian statistical inference using 2009 pandemic data from two candidate modelling approaches: (1) a parallel-region (PR) approach, splitting the pandemic into non-interacting epidemics occurring in spatially disjoint regions; and (2) a meta-region (MR) approach, treating the country as a single meta-population with long-range contact rates informed by census data on commuting. Model discrimination is performed through posterior mean deviance statistics alongside more practical considerations. In a real-time context, the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms to carry out real-time analyses is investigated as an alternative to MCMC using simulated data designed to sternly test both algorithms. SMC-derived analyses are compared with ‘gold-standard’ MCMC-derived inferences in terms of estimation quality and computational burden. Results: The PR approach provides a better and more timely fit to the epidemic data. Estimates of pandemic quantities of interest are consistent across approaches and, in the PR approach, across regions (e.g. R0 is consistently estimated to be 1.76–1.80, dropping by 43–50% during an over-summer school holiday). A SMC approach was developed, which required some tailoring to tackle a sudden ‘shock’ in the data resulting from a pandemic intervention. This semi-automated SMC algorithm outperforms MCMC, in terms of both precision of estimates and their timely provision. Software implementing all findings has been developed and installed within Public Health England (PHE), with key staff trained in its use. Limitations: The PR model lacks the predictive power to forecast the spread of infection in the early stages of a pandemic, whereas the MR model may be limited by its dependence on commuting data to describe transmission routes. As demand for resources increases in a severe pandemic, data from general practices and on hospitalisations may become unreliable or biased. The SMC algorithm developed is semi-automated; therefore, some statistical literacy is required to achieve optimal performance. Conclusions: Following the objectives, this study found that timely, spatially disaggregate, real-time pandemic inference is feasible, and a system that assumes data as per pandemic preparedness plans has been developed for rapid implementation. Future work recommendations: Modelling studies investigating the impact of pandemic interventions (e.g. vaccination and school closure); the utility of alternative data sources (e.g. internet searches) to augment traditional surveillance; and the correct handling of test sensitivity and specificity in serological data, propagating this uncertainty into the real-time modelling. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN40334843. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 58. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Daniela De Angelis was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (Unit Programme Number U105260566) and by PHE. She received funding under the NIHR grant for 10% of her time. The rest of her salary was provided by the MRC and PHE jointly.

The incidence of sporadic cryptosporidiosis among 106,000 residents of 2 local government districts in northwest England before and after installation of membrane filtration of public water supplies was compared to that of 59,700 residents whose public water supplies remained unchanged. A national outbreak of foot and mouth disease in livestock during 2001 was associated with a decline in sporadic human cryptosporidiosis in all regions of the United Kingdom. In a Poisson regression model, membrane filtration was associated with an estimated 79% reduction (incidence ratio 0.207, 95% confidence intervals 0.099–0.431, p < 0.0001) after adjustment for the interval of the foot and mouth disease epidemic and the water source. Despite the confounding effect of that epidemic, membrane filtration of the public water supply was effective in reducing the risk for sporadic human Cryptosporidium infection in this population.

To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of widespread occurrence of PDR pathogens within five years was 0.2 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.07–0.37). Estimated annual numbers of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemias at five and 20 years were 6800 (95% CrI: 400–58,600) and 22,800 (95% CrI: 1500–160,000), respectively; corresponding estimates of excess deaths were 1900 (95% CrI: 0–23,000) and 6400 (95% CrI: 0–64,000). Over 20 years, cumulative estimates indicate 284,000 (95% CrI: 17,000–1,990,000) cases of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia, leading to an estimated 79,000 (95% CrI: 0–821,000) deaths. This risk assessment reinforces the need for urgent national and international action to tackle antibiotic resistance.

Background. Primary care clinicians suggest that staff education is needed to increase chlamydia testing appropriately. Objectives. To determine if interactive workshops and modified laboratory request forms could increase testing and case detection. Methods. Study design: Prospective cluster randomized controlled study, using modified Zelens design, examining the effect of workshops and modified request forms on primary care clinicians’ chlamydia specimen submission and case positivity rate. Study population: 82 general practices in six geographical clusters within five primary care trusts (PCTs) in Gloucestershire and County Durham and Darlington. Intervention: Practices within geographical clusters were randomly assigned to workshops on chlamydia or a control consisting of comparable workshops on the management of urinary symptoms, held in PCT-protected learning time. Half the practices were randomized to receive modified laboratory request forms. Staff were unaware that they were part of a study. Results. Interactive workshops increased chlamydia testing in 16- to 24-year-old women by 33% in intervention practices compared to controls with effect persisting at 10 months (P = 0.003). No associated rise in the number of chlamydia infections was detected (P = 0.91), suggesting that increased testing may have occurred in a lower risk population. Modified forms did not change test submission (P = 0.75). Conclusions. Interactive workshops for general practices can be used to successfully increase chlamydia-testing rates. Chlamydia detection rates will need to be monitored as this type of educational programme may not increase absolute numbers of chlamydia infections detected, if patients at lower risk of infection are inappropriately tested. Other interventions may need to be combined with the workshops, to reach sufficiently high chlamydia screening rates to significantly reduce prevalence of chlamydial infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Urine is the most common microbiology laboratory specimen. Submissions increase annually by 5–10%, and many specimens may be unnecessary. Objectives. To assess the impact of guidance, implemented by interactive workshops and reinforced with modified request forms, on specimen submission. Methods. This was a prospective randomized controlled study with modified Zelen design. The study population comprised five primary care trusts (PCTs) in Gloucestershire/County Durham/Darlington, containing 82 general practices in six geographical clusters. The six clusters were randomly assigned to urine workshop covering submission in the elderly, adults and children or a control workshop. Within these groups, half the practices were randomized to receive modified laboratory forms emphasizing the workshop messages. Practices were not aware of the study. Results. Workshops lead to a 12% reduction in urine submissions from 16- to 64-year olds, which persisted for the 15 months but had no effect on bacteriuria rate. Workshops had no significant effect in the elderly or children. Modified forms were not associated with any reduction in submissions but were associated with an 11% reduction in detection of significant bacteriuria in 16- to 64-year olds. Conclusions. The 12% decrease in urine submissions from 16- to 64-year olds, attained with workshops, may help counter relentlessly rising test submissions. Modified forms are currently not worth pursuing. When educational workshops are used across PCTs to change practice, the change in test submission is smaller than attained in educational initiatives involving volunteers. Workshops may be more effective if they also discuss urine submissions from asymptomatic patients and are directed at high testing practices and care homes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]