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Research on home-based long-term care has centered almost solely on the costs; there has been very little, if any, attention paid to the relative benefits. This study exploits the randomization built into the Cash and Counseling Demonstration and Evaluation program that directly impacted the likelihood of having family involved in home care delivery. Randomization in the trial is used as an instrumental variable for family involvement in care, resulting in a causal estimate of the effect of changing the combination of home health-care providers on health-care utilization and health outcomes of the beneficiary. We find that some family involvement in home-based care significantly decreases health-care utilization: lower likelihood of emergency room use, Medicaid-financed inpatient days, any Medicaid hospital expenditures, and fewer months with Medicaid-paid inpatient use. We find that individuals who have some family involved in home-based care are less likely to have several adverse health outcomes within the first 9 months of the trial, including lower prevalence of infections, bedsores, or shortness of breath, suggesting that the lower utilization may be due to better health outcomes., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Importance: Employers have increasingly invested in workplace wellness programs to improve employee health and decrease health care costs. However, there is little experimental evidence on the effects of these programs., Objective: To evaluate a multicomponent workplace wellness program resembling programs offered by US employers., Design, Setting, and Participants: This clustered randomized trial was implemented at 160 worksites from January 2015 through June 2016. Administrative claims and employment data were gathered continuously through June 30, 2016; data from surveys and biometrics were collected from July 1, 2016, through August 31, 2016., Interventions: There were 20 randomly selected treatment worksites (4037 employees) and 140 randomly selected control worksites (28 937 employees, including 20 primary control worksites [4106 employees]). Control worksites received no wellness programming. The program comprised 8 modules focused on nutrition, physical activity, stress reduction, and related topics implemented by registered dietitians at the treatment worksites., Main Outcomes and Measures: Four outcome domains were assessed. Self-reported health and behaviors via surveys (29 outcomes) and clinical measures of health via screenings (10 outcomes) were compared among 20 intervention and 20 primary control sites; health care spending and utilization (38 outcomes) and employment outcomes (3 outcomes) from administrative data were compared among 20 intervention and 140 control sites., Results: Among 32 974 employees (mean [SD] age, 38.6 [15.2] years; 15 272 [45.9%] women), the mean participation rate in surveys and screenings at intervention sites was 36.2% to 44.6% (n = 4037 employees) and at primary control sites was 34.4% to 43.0% (n = 4106 employees) (mean of 1.3 program modules completed). After 18 months, the rates for 2 self-reported outcomes were higher in the intervention group than in the control group: for engaging in regular exercise (69.8% vs 61.9%; adjusted difference, 8.3 percentage points [95% CI, 3.9-12.8]; adjusted P = .03) and for actively managing weight (69.2% vs 54.7%; adjusted difference, 13.6 percentage points [95% CI, 7.1-20.2]; adjusted P = .02). The program had no significant effects on other prespecified outcomes: 27 self-reported health outcomes and behaviors (including self-reported health, sleep quality, and food choices), 10 clinical markers of health (including cholesterol, blood pressure, and body mass index), 38 medical and pharmaceutical spending and utilization measures, and 3 employment outcomes (absenteeism, job tenure, and job performance)., Conclusions and Relevance: Among employees of a large US warehouse retail company, a workplace wellness program resulted in significantly greater rates of some positive self-reported health behaviors among those exposed compared with employees who were not exposed, but there were no significant differences in clinical measures of health, health care spending and utilization, and employment outcomes after 18 months. Although limited by incomplete data on some outcomes, these findings may temper expectations about the financial return on investment that wellness programs can deliver in the short term., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03167658.

Many studies find that women are more risk averse than men. Why does such a gender gap exist, and how malleable is this gender gap in risk aversion? The paper takes advantage of a rare setting in which children of the matrilineal Mosuo and the traditionally patriarchal Han attend the same schools in Yunnan, China to shed light on these questions. In particular, we exploit the fact that children would experience a shock in gender norms when they start to intermingle with children from other ethnic groups with the opposite gender norms at school. Using survey and field experiments, we elicit risk attitudes from Mosuo and Han elementary and middle school students. We find that, at the time when they first enter school, Mosuo and Han children exhibit opposite gender norms-Mosuo girls take more risks than Mosuo boys, while Han girls are more risk averse than Han boys, reflecting cultural differences. However, after Mosuo students spend more time with Han students, Mosuo girls become more and more risk averse. By age 11, Mosuo girls are also more risk averse than Mosuo boys. We also observe a shrinking gap in risk aversion for Han over time. Using random roommate assignment for boarding middle school students, we find Mosuo boys who have fewer Mosuo roommates behave more similarly to Han boys. This shows that risk preferences are shaped by culture and malleable in response to new environments., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

The authors compile large data sets from Norwegian and US historical censuses to study return migration during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913). Norwegian immigrants who returned to Norway held lower-paid occupations than did Norwegian immigrants who stayed in the United States, both before and after their first transatlantic migration, suggesting they were negatively selected from the migrant pool. Upon returning to Norway, return migrants held higher-paid occupations relative to Norwegians who never moved, despite hailing from poorer backgrounds. These patterns suggest that despite being negatively selected, return migrants had been able to accumulate savings and could improve their economic circumstances once they returned home.

A longstanding literature explores how altruism affects the way physicians respond to incentives and provide care. We analyze how patient socioeconomic status mediates these responses. We show theoretically that patient socioeconomic status systematically influences the way physicians respond to reimbursement changes, and we identify the channels through which these effects operate. We use two Medicare reimbursement changes to investigate these insights empirically. We confirm that a given physician facing an increase in reimbursement boosts utilization by more when treating richer patients. We show that average supply price elasticities vary from 0.02 to 0.18 for a given physician, depending on the patient's socioeconomic status. Finally, we show that the Medicare reforms we study led to overall reimbursement increases that raised healthcare utilization by 10% more for high-income patients compared to their low-income peers., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The tax penalty for noncompliance with the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate is to be eliminated starting in 2019. We investigated the potential impact of this change on enrollees' decisions to purchase insurance and on individual-market premiums. In a survey of enrollees in the individual market in California in 2017, 19 percent reported that they would not have purchased insurance had there been no penalty. We estimated that premiums would increase by 4-7 percent if these enrollees were not in the risk pool. The percentages of enrollees who would forgo insurance were higher among those with lower income and education, Hispanics, and those who had been uninsured in the prior year, relative to the comparison groups. Compared to older enrollees and those with two or more chronic conditions, respectively, younger enrollees and those with no chronic conditions were also more likely to say that they would not have purchased insurance. Eliminating the mandate penalty alone is unlikely to destabilize the California individual market but could erode coverage gains, especially among groups whose members have historically been less likely to be insured.

Despite the significant cost of prescription (Rx) drug abuse and calls from policymakers for effective interventions, there is limited research on the effects of policies intended to limit such abuse. This study estimates the effects of prescription drug monitoring (PDMP) programs, which constitute a key policy targeting access to non-medical use of Rx drugs. Based on objective indicators of abuse as measured by substance abuse treatment admissions and mortality related to Rx drugs, estimates do not suggest any substantial effects of instituting an operational PDMP. We find, however, that mandatory-access provisions, which raised PDMP utilization rates by actually requiring providers to query the PDMP prior to prescribing a controlled drug, are significantly associated with a reduction in Rx drug abuse. The effects are driven primarily by a reduction in opioid abuse, generally strongest among young adults (ages 18 to 24), and underscore important dynamics in the policy response. Robustness checks are consistent with a causal interpretation of these effects. We also assess potential spillovers of mandatory PDMPs on the use of other illicit drugs and find a complementary reduction in admissions related to cocaine and marijuana abuse.

Traditional economic interpretations have not been successful in explaining differences in saving rates across countries. One hypothesis is that savings respond to cultural specific social norms. The accepted view in economics so far is that culture does not have any effect on savings. We revisit this evidence using a novel dataset, which allows us to study the saving behavior of up to three generations of immigrants in the United Kingdom. Against the backdrop of existing evidence, we find that cultural preferences are an important explanation for cross-country differences in saving behavior, and their relevance persists up to three generations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Importance: Overprescribing of opioids is considered a major driving force behind the opioid epidemic in the United States. Marijuana is one of the potential nonopioid alternatives that can relieve pain at a relatively lower risk of addiction and virtually no risk of overdose. Marijuana liberalization, including medical and adult-use marijuana laws, has made marijuana available to more Americans., Objective: To examine the association of state implementation of medical and adult-use marijuana laws with opioid prescribing rates and spending among Medicaid enrollees., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design comparing opioid prescribing trends between states that started to implement medical and adult-use marijuana laws between 2011 and 2016 and the remaining states. This population-based study across the United States included all Medicaid fee-for-service and managed care enrollees, a high-risk population for chronic pain, opioid use disorder, and opioid overdose., Exposures: State implementation of medical and adult-use marijuana laws from 2011 to 2016., Main Outcomes and Measures: Opioid prescribing rate, measured as the number of opioid prescriptions covered by Medicaid on a quarterly, per-1000-Medicaid-enrollee basis., Results: State implementation of medical marijuana laws was associated with a 5.88% lower rate of opioid prescribing (95% CI, -11.55% to approximately -0.21%). Moreover, the implementation of adult-use marijuana laws, which all occurred in states with existing medical marijuana laws, was associated with a 6.38% lower rate of opioid prescribing (95% CI, -12.20% to approximately -0.56%)., Conclusions and Relevance: The potential of marijuana liberalization to reduce the use and consequences of prescription opioids among Medicaid enrollees deserves consideration during the policy discussions about marijuana reform and the opioid epidemic.

Objectives: Age- and sex-specific rates of dementia are estimated in the U.S. population aged 65 or older in 2000 and 2012 using a large nationally representative dataset, the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and accounting for mortality selection and specificities of the interview protocol., Method: A latent cognitive ability model is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood. Prevalence of dementia is identified using HRS cognition measures and the Aging, Demographics and Memory Study (ADAMS), a subset of the HRS (n = 856) with clinical assessment for dementia. Different cognitive measures are collected in self and proxy interviews. From 2006 onward, the HRS collected fewer interviews by proxy. Selection into proxy interviews is modeled as well as survival into the ADAMS sample from the previous HRS interview., Results: The prevalence of dementia decreased from 12.0% (SE = 0.48%) in 2000 to 10.5% (SE = 0.49%) in 2012 in the 65+ population, a statistically significant decline of 12.6% (p < .01). The percentage change in prevalence was larger among males (16.6% vs 9.5%), and younger individuals., Discussion: The prevalence of dementia among those 65 or older decreased between 2000 and 2012, although less rapidly than reported in other studies. The difference is primarily due to our modeling selection into proxy interviews.

Previous studies in adults demonstrated that beliefs and sharing decisions in social scenarios are closely related. However, to date, little is known about the development of this relationship in children. By using a modified dictator game, we assessed sharing behavior and beliefs about others in children between 3 and 12 years old. We performed four studies (N = 376) aimed to assess whether decisions were related to beliefs (Studies 1 and 2) and whether information about the recipient's forced sharing behavior would shape decisions and beliefs (Studies 3 and 4). Results of Studies 1 and 2 showed that beliefs about others' generosity were related to children's sharing behavior. In Studies 3 and 4, we found that only children older than 9 years shared more pieces of candy when they knew that the recipient would be forced to share (cooperative context) than when they knew that the recipient would be forced not to share (noncooperative context). Besides, children older than 6 years did not modify their beliefs about others' generosity according to these social contexts. These results suggest that normative or preconceived beliefs about the functioning of the social world may guide social behavior in children., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Nonmedical use of prescription opioids has reached epidemic levels in the United States and globally. In response, federal, state, and local governments are taking actions to address substantial increases in prescription opioid addiction and its associated harms. This study examines the effect of two state laws specifically designed to curtail access to prescription opioids to nonmedical users: pain management clinic and doctor shopping laws. We use administrative data on overdose deaths and admissions to specialty substance use disorder treatment coupled with a differences-in-differences design. Our findings suggest that both pain management clinic and doctor shopping laws have the potential to reduce prescription opioid overdose deaths. Moreover, doctor shopping laws appear to reduce prescription opioid treatment admissions. As many states have adopted these laws in recent years, the full effects of the laws may not yet be realized. Future research using more postlaw passage data should reevaluate the effectiveness of these laws., (Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Physician treatment choices for observably similar patients vary dramatically across regions. This paper exploits cardiologist migration to disentangle the role of physician-specific factors such as preferences and learned behavior versus environment-level factors such as hospital capacity and productivity spillovers on physician behavior. Physicians starting in the same region and subsequently moving to dissimilar regions practice similarly before the move. After the move, physician behavior in the first year changes by 0.6-0.8 percentage points for each percentage point change in practice environment, with no further changes over time. This suggests environment factors explain between 60-80 percent of regional disparities in physician behavior.

Demographers often form estimates by combining information from two data sources-a challenging problem when one or both data sources are incomplete. A classic example entails the construction of death probabilities, which requires death counts for the subpopulations under study and corresponding base population estimates. Approaches typically entail 'back projection', as in Wrigley and Schofield's seminal analysis of historical English data, or 'inverse' or 'forward projection' as used by Lee in his important reanalysis of that work, both published in the 1980s. Our paper shows how forward and backward approaches can be optimally combined, using a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. We apply the method to the estimation of death probabilities for relatively small subpopulations within the United States (men born 1930-39 by state of birth by birth cohort by race), combining data from vital statistics records and census samples.

Using data from nationally representative household surveys, we test whether Indian parents make trade-offs between the number of children and investments in education. To address the endogeneity due to the joint determination of quantity and quality of children, we instrument family size with the gender of the first child, which is plausibly random. Given a strong son preference in India, parents tend to have more children if the firstborn is a girl. Our instrumental variable results show that children from larger families have lower educational attainment and are less likely to be enrolled in school, with larger effects for rural, poorer, and low-caste families as well as for families with illiterate mothers.

Purpose of the Study: Long-term care (LTC) poses a significant strain on public health insurance financing. In response, there is policy interest in bolstering the private long-term care insurance (LTCI) market. Although families are central to LTC provision, their role in LTCI demand remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to obtain in-depth information concerning: (a) How do older parents evaluate the need for LTCI, (b) what role do adult children play? and (c) How do families communicate about parents' LTC preferences and plans, including LTCI purchase?, Design and Methods: We conducted focus groups with older parents and adult children in diverse markets. Two groups were conducted with older parents who had purchased LTCI and two with parents who had not purchased LTCI. Four groups were conducted with adult children, mixed as to whether their parents had purchased LTCI. Probes were informed by published reasons for purchasing or not purchasing LTCI. We analyzed transcriptions using directed content analysis and constant comparative method., Results: Older parents valued autonomy for themselves and their children. Older parent purchasers regarded LTCI as supporting this value while nonpurchasers perceived limitations. Adult children described unstated expectations that they would care for their parents. Though discussions between parents and children about LTCI were rare, successful influence occurred when children appealed to shared values, specifically avoiding burden and remaining home., Implications: Messages that emphasize autonomy over LTC decisions and interventions that start the LTC conversation among families, with attention to shared values, could increase private LTCI uptake., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Introduction: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has estimated the economic impact of Graphic Warning Labels (GWLs). By omitting the impact on tobacco consumption by pregnant women, the FDA analysis underestimates the economic benefits that would occur from the proposed regulations. There is a strong link between the occurrence of low birth weight babies and smoking while pregnant. Low birth weight babies in turn generate much higher hospital costs than normal birth weight babies. This study aims to fill the gap by quantifying the national hospital cost savings from the reductions in prenatal smoking that will arise if GWLs are implemented in the U.S. Data and Methods: This study uses several data sources. It uses Natality Data from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in 2013 to estimate the impact of prenatal smoking on the likelihood of having a low-birth-weight baby, controlling for socio-economic and demographic characteristics as well as medical and non-medical risk factors. Using these estimates, along with the estimates of Huang et al. (2014) regarding the effect of GWLs on smoking, we calculate the change in the number of LBW (low birth weight) babies resulting from decreased prenatal smoking due to GWLs. Using this estimated change and the estimates from Russell et al. (2007) and AHRQ (2013) on the excess hospital costs of LBW babies, we calculate cost saving that arises from reduced prenatal smoking in response of GWLs. Results and Conclusions: Our results indicated that GWLs for this population could lead to hospital cost savings of 1.2 billion to 2.0 billion dollars over a 30 year horizon.

A number of behaviours influence health in a non-monotonic way. Physical activity and alcohol consumption, for instance, may be beneficial to one's health in moderate but detrimental in large quantities. We develop a demand-for-health framework that incorporates the feature of a physiologically optimal level. An individual may still choose a physiologically non-optimal level, because of the trade-off in his or her preferences for health versus other utility-affecting commodities. However, any deviation above or below the physiologically optimal level will be punished with respect to health. Distinguishing between two individual types we study (a) the qualitative properties of optimal time-paths of health capital and health-related behaviour, (b) the perturbations of the optimal time-paths that result from changes in exogenous parameters, and (c) steady state properties. Predictions of the model and the implications for empirical analysis are discussed at length. Some comments on potential future extensions conclude the paper., (Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Practices regarding hospitalisation of children at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes vary both within countries and internationally, and high-quality evidence of best practice is scarce. The objective of this study was to close some of the gaps in evidence by comparing two alternative regimens for children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes: hospital-based care and hospital-based home care (HBHC), referring to specialist care in a home-based setting., Methods: A randomised controlled trial, including 60 children aged 3-15 years, took place at a university hospital in Sweden. When the children were medically stable, they were randomised to either the traditional, hospital-based care or to HBHC., Results: Two years after diagnosis there were no differences in HbA1c (p = 0.777), in episodes of severe hypoglycaemia (p = 0.167), or in insulin U/kg/24 h (p = 0.269). Over 24 months, there were no statistically significant differences between groups in how parents' reported the impact of paediatric chronic health condition on family (p = 0.138) or in parents' self-reported health-related quality of life (p = 0.067). However, there was a statistically significant difference regarding healthcare satisfaction, favouring HBHC (p = 0.002). In total, healthcare costs (direct costs) were significantly lower in the HBHC group but no statistically significant difference between the two groups in estimated lost production (indirect costs) for the family as a whole. Whereas mothers had a significantly lower value of lost production, when their children were treated within the HBHC regime, fathers had a higher, but not a significantly higher value. The results indicate that HBHC might be a cost-effective strategy in a healthcare sector perspective. When using the wider societal perspective, no difference in cost effectiveness or cost utility was found., Conclusions: Overall, there are only a few, well-designed and controlled studies that compare hospital care to different models of home care. The results of this study provide empirical support for the safety and feasibility of HBHC when a child is diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Our results further indicate that the model of care may have an impact on families' daily living, not only during the initial period of care but for a longer period of time., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov with identity number NCT00804232 , December 2008.

In many markets, including the new U.S. Marketplaces, health insurance plans are paid by risk-adjusted capitation, sometimes combined with reinsurance and other payment mechanisms. This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the de facto insurer incentives embedded in these complex payment systems. We discuss fit, power and balance, each of which addresses a distinct market failure in health insurance. We implement empirical metrics of fit, power, and balance in a study of Marketplace payment systems. Using data similar to that used to develop the Marketplace risk adjustment scheme, we quantify tradeoffs among the three classes of incentives. We show that an essential tradeoff arises between the goals of limiting costs and limiting cream skimming because risk adjustment, which is aimed at discouraging cream-skimming, weakens cost control incentives in practice. A simple reinsurance system scores better on our measures of fit, power and balance than the risk adjustment scheme in use in the Marketplaces., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the distortions created by this selection effect, assuming that the only source of publication bias is file drawer bias. These adjusted critical values are easy to calculate and differ from unadjusted critical values by approximately 50%-rather than rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 2, the analysis suggests rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 3. Samples of published social science research indicate that on average, across research fields, approximately 30% of published t-statistics fall between the standard and adjusted cutoffs.

Objectives: To test the hypothesis that certain individual, environmental and lifestyle factors are positively associated with beneficial health investment behaviours and oral/periodontal health among adolescents., Methods: Five hundred and six randomly selected 19-year old subjects living in two different areas (Fyrbodal and Skaraborg) in the county council of Västra Götaland, Sweden participated in a clinical examination and answered questionnaires covering psycho-social and health behavioural issues. Two oral-health models were estimated with gingivitis score as an objective and self-perceived oral health as a subjective indicator. Three health- investment behaviour models were designed with indicators directly related to oral health and two with indicators related to general health as well. The explanatory variables included gender, upper secondary education programme, native country, living area, general self-efficacy and parents' education level., Results: In the objective oral-health model, theoretical studies and living in the Skaraborg area were both positively associated with a lower gingivitis score. For the subjective oral-health indicator, none of the explanatory variables showed statistical significance. In the investment-behaviour model with 'tooth-brushing ≥ 2 times daily' as a health indicator, female gender and theoretical studies showed statistically significant associations. With the indicators 'no/few missed dental appointments', 'no tobacco use' and 'weekly exercise', theoretical studies were statistically significant and positively associated. In the investment model with 'perceived oral health care attention' as an indicator, a high score of general self-efficacy was significantly associated with the feeling of taking good care of the teeth., Conclusions: Individual, environmental and lifestyle factors are associated with young individuals' oral health investment behaviours and gingival health conditions.

Medicare offers substantial protection from medical expenditure risk, protection that has increased in recent years. At age 65, out-of-pocket expenditures drop by 33 percent at the mean and 53 percent at the ninety-fifth percentile. Medical-related financial strain, such as difficulty paying bills and collections agency contact, is dramatically reduced. Nonetheless, using a stylized expected utility framework, the gain from reducing out-of-pocket expenditures accounts for only 18 percent of the social costs of financing Medicare. This calculation ignores any direct health benefits from Medicare or any indirect health effects due to reductions in financial stress.

We compare estimates of peer effects on worker output in laboratory experiments and field studies from naturally occurring environments. The mean study-level estimate of a change in a worker's productivity in response to an increase in a co-worker's productivity (γ) is γ̑ = 0.12 (SE = 0.03, n(studies) = 34), with a between-study standard deviation τ = 0.16. The mean estimated γ̑-values are close between laboratory and field studies (γ̑(lab) - γ̑(field) = 0.04, P = 0.55, n(lab) = 11, n(field) = 23), as are estimates of between-study variance τ(2) (τ̑(lab)(2) - τ̑(field)(2) = -0.003, P = 0.89). The small mean difference between laboratory and field estimates holds even after controlling for sample characteristics such as incentive schemes and work complexity (γ̑(lab) - γ̑(field) = 0.03, P = 0.62, n(samples) = 46). Laboratory experiments generalize quantitatively in that they provide an accurate description of the mean and variance of productivity spillovers., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

We estimate the effect of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) in ten states between 2004 and 2012 on adolescent and adult use of marijuana, alcohol, and other psychoactive substances. We find increases in the probability of current marijuana use, regular marijuana use and marijuana abuse/dependence among those aged 21 or above. We also find an increase in marijuana use initiation among those aged 12-20. For those aged 21 or above, MMLs further increase the frequency of binge drinking. MMLs have no discernible impact on drinking behavior for those aged 12-20, or the use of other psychoactive substances in either age group., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We present results from six randomized control trials of an integrated approach to improve livelihoods among the very poor. The approach combines the transfer of a productive asset with consumption support, training, and coaching plus savings encouragement and health education and/or services. Results from the implementation of the same basic program, adapted to a wide variety of geographic and institutional contexts and with multiple implementing partners, show statistically significant cost-effective impacts on consumption (fueled mostly by increases in self-employment income) and psychosocial status of the targeted households. The impact on the poor households lasted at least a year after all implementation ended. It is possible to make sustainable improvements in the economic status of the poor with a relatively short-term intervention., (Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

The Affordable Care Act of 2010 expanded coverage to young adults by allowing them to remain on their parent's private health insurance until they turn 26 years old. While there is evidence on insurance effects, we know very little about use of general or specific forms of medical care. We study the implications of the expansion on inpatient hospitalizations. Given the prevalence of mental health needs for young adults, we also specifically study mental health related inpatient care. We find evidence that compared to those aged 27-29 years, treated young adults aged 19-25 years increased their inpatient visits by 3.5 percent while mental illness visits increased 9.0 percent. The prevalence of uninsurance among hospitalized young adults decreased by 12.5 percent; however, it does not appear that the intensity of inpatient treatment changed despite the change in reimbursement composition of patients., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper presents a new data infrastructure for measuring economic activity. The infrastructure records transactions and account balances, yielding measurements with scope and accuracy that have little precedent in economics. The data are drawn from a diverse population that overrepresents males and younger adults but contains large numbers of underrepresented groups. The data infrastructure permits evaluation of a benchmark theory in economics that predicts that individuals should use a combination of cash management, saving, and borrowing to make the timing of income irrelevant for the timing of spending. As in previous studies and in contrast to the predictions of the theory, there is a response of spending to the arrival of anticipated income. The data also show, however, that this apparent excess sensitivity of spending results largely from the coincident timing of regular income and regular spending. The remaining excess sensitivity is concentrated among individuals with less liquidity., (Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

A substantial literature shows that U.S. early childhood interventions have important long-term economic benefits. However, there is little evidence on this question for developing countries. We report substantial effects on the earnings of participants in a randomized intervention conducted in 1986-1987 that gave psychosocial stimulation to growth-stunted Jamaican toddlers. The intervention consisted of weekly visits from community health workers over a 2-year period that taught parenting skills and encouraged mothers and children to interact in ways that develop cognitive and socioemotional skills. The authors reinterviewed 105 out of 129 study participants 20 years later and found that the intervention increased earnings by 25%, enough for them to catch up to the earnings of a nonstunted comparison group identified at baseline (65 out of 84 participants)., (Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

All-cause readmission to inpatient care is of wide policy interest in the United States and a number of other countries (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in the United Kingdom by the National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, and in Australia by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare). Contemporary policy efforts, including high powered incentives embedded in the current US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program, and the organizationally complex interventions derived in anticipation of this policy, have been touted based on potential cost savings. Strong incentives and resulting interventions may not enjoy the support of a strong theoretical model or the empirical research base that are typical of strong incentive schemes. We examine the historical broad literature on the issue, lay out a 'full' conceptual organizational model of patient transitions as they relate to the hospital, and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of previous and proposed policies. We use this to set out a research and policy agenda on this critical issue rather than attempt to conduct a comprehensive structured literature review. We assert that researchers and policy makers should consider more fundamental societal issues related to health, social support and health literacy if progress is going to be made in reducing readmissions.

Medicare continues to implement payment reforms that shift reimbursement from fee-for-service toward episode-based payment, affecting average and marginal payment. We contrast the effects of two reforms for home health agencies. The home health interim payment system in 1997 lowered both types of payment; our conceptual model predicts a decline in the likelihood of use and costs, both of which we find. The home health prospective payment system in 2000 raised average but lowered marginal payment with theoretically ambiguous effects; we find a modest increase in use and costs. We find little substantive effect of either policy on readmissions or mortality., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In 2008, Oregon initiated a limited expansion of a Medicaid program for uninsured, low-income adults, drawing names from a waiting list by lottery. This lottery created a rare opportunity to study the effects of Medicaid coverage by using a randomized controlled design. By using the randomization provided by the lottery and emergency-department records from Portland-area hospitals, we studied the emergency department use of about 25,000 lottery participants over about 18 months after the lottery. We found that Medicaid coverage significantly increases overall emergency use by 0.41 visits per person, or 40% relative to an average of 1.02 visits per person in the control group. We found increases in emergency-department visits across a broad range of types of visits, conditions, and subgroups, including increases in visits for conditions that may be most readily treatable in primary care settings.

Objectives: We used data from multiple national health surveys to systematically track the health of the US adult population., Methods: We estimated trends in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) from 1987 to 2008 by using national mortality data combined with data on symptoms and impairments from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (1987), National Health Interview Survey (1987, 1994-1995, 1996), Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (1992, 1996, 2000-2008), National Nursing Home Survey (1985, 1995, and 1999), and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (1992, 1994-2008). We decomposed QALE into changes in life expectancy, impairments, symptoms, and smoking and body mass index., Results: Years of QALE increased overall and for all demographic groups-men, women, Whites, and Blacks-despite being slowed by increases in obesity and a rising prevalence of some symptoms and impairments. Overall QALE gains were large: 2.4 years at age 25 years and 1.7 years at age 65 years., Conclusions: Understanding and consistently tracking the drivers of QALE change is central to informed policymaking. Harmonizing data from multiple national surveys is an important step in building this infrastructure.

We examine provider responses to the Medicare inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF) prospective payment system (PPS), which simultaneously reduced marginal reimbursement and increased average reimbursement. IRFs could respond to the PPS by changing the number of patients admitted, admitting different types of patients, or changing the intensity of care. We use Medicare claims data to separately estimate each type of provider response. We also examine changes in patient outcomes and spillover effects on other post-acute care providers. We find that costs of care initially fell following the PPS, which we attribute to changes in treatment decisions rather than the characteristics of patients admitted to IRFs within the diagnostic categories we examine. However, the probability of admission to IRFs increased after the PPS due to the expanded admission policies of providers. We find modest spillover effects in other post-acute settings and negative health impacts for only one of three diagnostic groups studied., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

Upward intergenerational flows - from the working ages to old age - are increasing substantially in the advanced industrialized countries and are much larger than in developing countries. Population aging is the most important factor leading to this change. Thus, in the absence of a major demographic shift, e.g., a return to high fertility, an increase in upward flows is inevitable. Even so, three other important factors will influence the magnitudes of upward flows. First, labor income varies at older ages due to differences in average age at retirement, productivity, unemployment, and hours worked. Second, the age patterns of consumption at older ages vary primarily due to differences in spending on health. Third, spending on human capital, i.e., spending child health and education, varies. Human capital spending competes with spending on the elderly, but it also increases the productivity of subsequent generations of workers and the resources available to support consumption in old age. All contemporary societies rely on a variety of institutions and economic mechanisms to shift economic resources from the working ages to the dependent ages - the young and the old. Three institutions dominate intergenerational flows: governments which implement social security, education, and other public transfer programs; markets which are key to the accumulation of assets, e.g., funded pensions and housing; and families which provide economic support to children in all societies and to the elderly in many. The objectives of this paper are, first, to describe how population aging and other changes influence the direction and magnitude of intergenerational flows; and, second, to contrast the institutional approaches to intergenerational flows as they are practiced around the world. The paper relies extensively on National Transfer Accounts, a system for measuring economic flows across age in a manner consistent with the UN System of National Accounts. These accounts are currently being constructed by research teams located in 33 countries on six continents representing wide variations in the level of development, demographics, and policies regarding intergenerational transfers.

Women's choices appear to emphasize child welfare more than those of men. This paper presents new evidence on how suffrage rights for American women helped children to benefit from the scientific breakthroughs of the bacteriological revolution. Consistent with standard models of electoral competition, suffrage laws were followed by immediate shifts in legislative behavior and large, sudden increases in local public health spending. This growth in public health spending fueled large-scale door-to-door hygiene campaigns, and child mortality declined by 8-15% (or 20,000 annual child deaths nationwide) as cause-specific reductions occurred exclusively among infectious childhood killers sensitive to hygienic conditions.

This report models how the evolving field of pharmacogenomics, the science of using genomic markers to predict drug response, may impact drug development times, attrition rates and costs. While there still remains an abundance of uncertainty around how pharmacogenomics will impact the future landscape of pharmaceutical and biological R&D, we identify several likely outcomes. We conclude pharmacogenomics (as defined in this context) has the potential to significantly reduce both expected drug development costs via higher probabilities of technical success, shorter clinical development times and smaller clinical trials. Our conclusions are, of course, accompanied by numerous caveats.

Pharmacoeconomic analyses employ a wide range of techniques and methods to help societies allocate scarce health-care resources wisely, fairly, and efficiently. Techniques such as dynamic optimization and optimal control, however, have yet to be exploited by this field. Although control theory has a long history in mathematical biology and disease management, its application to economic costs in these disciplines has not yet been explored. Pharmacoeconomics therefore may offer a particularly promising starting point because of the emphasis this field places on the economic perspective. Although challenges may exist to implementing these techniques in practice (at least in some settings), there will nevertheless be value to considering the dynamic perspective these techniques offer, which requires thinking more critically about the optimal allocation of scare health-care resources over time. Therefore, our article serves as a primer to introduce this dynamic perspective from an economic standpoint within the context of two examples of treating of hyperlipidemia.

Mortality rates in the United States fell more rapidly during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries than in any other period in American history. This decline coincided with an epidemiological transition and the disappearance of a mortality "penalty" associated with living in urban areas. There is little empirical evidence and much unresolved debate about what caused these improvements, however. In this article, we report the causal influence of clean water technologies--filtration and chlorination--on mortality in major cities during the early twentieth century. Plausibly exogenous variation in the timing and location of technology adoption was used to identify these effects, and the validity of this identifying assumption is examined in detail. We found that clean water was responsible for nearly half the total mortality reduction in major cities, three quarters of the infant mortality reduction, and nearly two thirds of the child mortality reduction. Rough calculations suggest that the social rate of return to these technologies was greater than 23 to 1, with a cost per person-year saved by clean water of about dollar 500 in 2003 dollars. Implications for developing countries are briefly considered.