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In this paper we examine the dynamic contributions of capital accumulation, globalisation, and financialisation to the functional-personal income distribution nexus. We analyse the labour share under the prism of monopoly and frictional growth, and disclose the dramatic upward trend in inequality. On this basis, we estimate a two-equation model for the income distribution in the US over the 1960-2009 period. We show that the labour share is affected positively by capital intensity and negatively by trade, while the Gini statistic is fueled by the falling labour share and increasing financial payments. Using counterfactual simulations, a key finding is that the decrease in capital intensity in the eighties accounted for about 76% of the labour share fall, while its increase in the 2000s prevented inequality from worsening three times more than it actually did. In turn, had financialisation not increased after 2005, inequality would have decreased to its level in the early noughties. In the Great Recession years of tense socioeconomic conditions, looking at income distribution through the lens of the wage-productivity gap could enlighten economic policy.

We present new data documenting medieval Europe's Commercial Revolution using information on the establishment of markets in Germany. We use these data to test whether medieval universities played a causal role in expanding economic activity, examining the foundation of Germany's first universities after 1386 following the Papal Schism. We find that the trend rate of market establishment breaks upward in 1386 and that this break is greatest where the distance to a university shrank most. There is no differential pre-1386 trend associated with the reduction in distance to a university, and there is no break in trend in 1386 where university proximity did not change. These results are robust to estimating a variety of specifications that address concerns about the endogeneity of university location. Universities provided training in newly-rediscovered Roman and canon law; students with legal training served in positions that reduced the uncertainty of trade in the Middle Ages. We argue that training in the law, and the consequent development of legal and administrative institutions, was an important channel linking universities and greater economic activity in medieval Germany.

In this paper we present a new long-term database on monthly export and import series for 23 economies during 1921-2010 and its first empirical application. Using these data, we analyse the synchronised decline in foreign trade during the recession 2008-09 in a historical perspective. We investigate the following two research questions: First, we compare the degree of synchronisation of trade flows among the past major economic crises. Second, we investigate the synchronisation of the speed of the recovery after these recessions. In order to answer these questions we use both, descriptive statistics (like rolling correlations) and turning-point oriented measures (Bry-Boschan routine, Markov switching model).

Following Max Weber, many theories have hypothesized that Protestantism should have favored economic development. With its religious heterogeneity, the Holy Roman Empire presents an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis. Using population figures of 272 cities in the years 1300–1900, I find no effects of Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is precisely estimated, robust to the inclusion of various controls, and does not depend on data selection or small sample size. Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development. Instrumental variables estimates, considering the potential endogeneity of religious choice, are similar to the OLS results.

Im Jahr 1930 veröffentlichte Keynes einen Aufsatz über die Zukunft der Enkel, in dem er die Lösung des ökonomischen Problems und mithin das Ende der bisherigen Menschheitsgeschichte prognostizierte. Diese Prognose und die zahlreichen Implikationen, die Keynes aus ihr herleitete, werden hier einer kritischen Analyse unterzogen. Dabei zeigt sich: (1) Keynes hat die Quellen des Wachstums weitgehend richtig identifiziert. (2) Keynes hat die Folgen des Wachstums teilweise falsch eingeschätzt. (3) Keynes‘ Auffassungen zum Moralwandel halten einer wirtschaftsethischen Analyse nicht Stand. In 1930 Keynes published an article on the economic possibilities of our grandchildren, in which he predicted a solution to the economic problem and thus an end of history. This paper offers a critical investigation of this prognosis and the numerous implications Keynes deduced. Three results stand out: (1) Keynes was almost right in identifying the sources of growth. (2) Keynes was partly wrong in estimating the consequences of economic growth. (3) From the perspective of economic ethics, Keynes’ view on changes in morality bears no close examination.

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers (De Gruyter) frei zugänglich. Die Nürnberger Prozesse sind oft geschildert, weit weniger häufig jedoch analysiert worden. Dies gilt insbesondere für die zwölf in amerikanischer Verantwortung gehaltenen „Nachfolgeprozesse“. Ihr Versuch, die juristische Sanktion der nationalsozialistischen Verbrechen mit einer historischen Untersuchung des NS-Staates zu verbinden, stellte ein ambitioniertes, wiewohl riskantes Unterfangen dar. Der Krupp-Prozess 1947/48 bildete den entstehungsgeschichtlichen Nukleus der Verfahren und zog zugleich die längsten Linien. Sein historischer Horizont wurde von der Anklagebehörde bewusst geweitet, um die jüngere deutsche Geschichte nahezu vollständig zu erfassen, und dem Essener Konzern als bekanntestem Vertreter der Schwerindustrie kam dabei ausdrücklich stellvertretende Bedeutung zu. Die Ankläger bedienten sich einer spezifischen unternehmensgeschichtlichen Lesart, die ihrerseits sozialimperialistische Interpretationen verarbeitete, die über exilierte Wissenschaftler Eingang in das amerikanische Verständnis von Politik und Privatwirtschaft in Kaiserreich und Weimar gefunden hatten. Diesen hielten Verteidigung und Angeklagte eigene, diametral entgegenstehende und mit der defensiven Situation allein nicht zu erklärende Narrative entgegen. Vielmehr geriet Nürnberg zum Austragungsort des Konflikts zweier genuin historiographischer Debatten, deren eine sich um die Definitionshoheit über die Firmengeschichte entspann, die andere kontroverse Lesarten des deutschen Imperialismus und totalitärer Herrschaft aufeinanderprallen sah. Dabei adaptierten die Prozessparteien bestehende Interpretationsangebote, katalysierten diese durch die konfrontative Dynamik des Rechtsstreits und nahmen die Positionen der bald folgenden Sonderwegs-Debatte vorweg. The Nuremberg Trials have often been lauded but much less thoroughly analysed. In particular the twelve so-called Subsequent Proceedings held by American tribunals have escaped attention for a long time, thereby obscuring their singularly ambitious — and judicially hazardous — attempt to combine penal action against Nazi criminals with a full-scale historical analysis of the Third Reich. The Krupp Trial in 1947–8 stood at the heart of this effort as the first to be conceived and by sketching the broadest historical horizon of all proceedings. The prosecution deliberately devised a trial which would tackle modern German history in a comprehensive and coherent way. In this venture, the Krupp concern was supposed to represent heavy industry as such. The US prosecutors relied heavily on a reading of Krupp′s corporate history which was deeply steeped in the recent theory of social imperialism whose proponents had been exiled from Germany in the 1930s and which had fed into the American understanding of state-business relations in Wilhelmine Germany, Weimar, and the Third Reich. In turn, the defendants and their counsel elaborated their own narratives which refuted the indictment but whose motivation went beyond the defensive rationale of the judicial confrontation. Indeed, the Nuremberg arena saw two historiographic debates coalesce: one about the authoritative interpretation of the Krupp business history, the other a conflict between the continuities of German imperialism and traditional elites on the one hand and the revolutionary rise of totalitarianism on the other. Both sides adapted existing interpretative frameworks for their own judicial ends. The courtroom thus became a catalyst for the historiographic debate about the origins of National Socialism and the subsequent Sonderweg dispute.

The article provides an evaluation of the role of universities for the West German innovation system. It considers both research and education. On the whole, the balance is mixed. The higher education system, although in principle clinging to the ideals of Humboldt, was flexible enough to accommodate rapidly growing student numbers in the 1960s and 70s. Research was not driven out of universities, but universities lost ground in the competition with extra-mural research institutes. The links between universities and industry were stronger in the 1950s and 1960s than in the 1970s and 1980s. Efforts at improving knowledge transfer since the 1970s can be seen as attempts to make up for loosening informal ties. An assessment of the contribution of universities to labor productivity casts doubt on the assumption that a shortage of human capital acted as a break an economic development., Historical Social Research Vol. 37, No. 2 (2012): Special Issue: Political and Functional Elites in Post-Socialist Transformation: Central and East Europe since 1989/90 Starting Point and Frequency: Year: 1979, Issues per volume: 4, Volumes per year: 1

This article is organized as follows: in section 1, the authors discuss the Bordo et al. (2002) monetarist counterfactual analysis. Section 2 presents data. In section 3, the authors address the following question: referring to Keynes' definition of liquidity trap, they ask themselves whether there were episodes of liquidity trap over the pre and post 1929 crisis period and whether the Fed modified its reaction function in consequence? Following this, in section 4 and using a SVAR approach, the authors simulate how US economic activity would have reacted following an expansionary monetary policy after the 1929 crisis. In conclusion, the authors suggest a renewed monetary lesson from the past., Historical Social Research Vol. 37, No. 2 (2012): Special Issue: Political and Functional Elites in Post-Socialist Transformation: Central and East Europe since 1989/90 Starting Point and Frequency: Year: 1979, Issues per volume: 4, Volumes per year: 1

The discussion about the long-run evolution of labor productivity in Switzerland is awed because the available data on the input of labor is incoherent and incomplete. It is the aim of this paper to establish a consistent aggregate series of total hours worked covering 1950-2010. The new data indicates that hours worked in Switzerland have been nearly stagnant between 1960 and 2005, implying that hours worked have grown considerably less than previously thought. As a direct consequence, Switzerland's performance in terms of labor productivity growth has been underestimated in previous work, particularly after the structural slowdown in labor productivity growth of 1973., KOF Working Papers, 300

This note casts skepticism over various hypothesis formulated by Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001) in reaching the conclusion that institutions cause economic development. The author has identified four major issues in the study. It lacks adequate econometric specification and relies only on, what the author termed, destiny variables. Secondly, the historical record does not support the author's theory that mortality rate determine Europeans strategy for institutions they intended to develop in the host country; thirdly, given current living standards and disease ridden environment in low and middle income countries, the claim that disease environment of early 19th century was neutral to economic development seems farfetched; finally, assuming that initial institutions caused present institutions put in question the developmental efforts of past half century and thus is more than a sweeping generalization., Historical Social Research Vol. 37, No. 2 (2012): Special Issue: Political and Functional Elites in Post-Socialist Transformation: Central and East Europe since 1989/90 Starting Point and Frequency: Year: 1979, Issues per volume: 4, Volumes per year: 1

Using historical data, we test the validity of Wagner's law of increasing state activity at different stages of economic development for five industrialized European countries: the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Italy. In order to investigate the coherence between Wagner's law and development stage, we classify every country into three individual stages of income development and apply advanced cointegration and vector error correction analyses. In line with Wagner's hypothesis, our findings show that the relationship between public spending and economic growth has weakened with an advanced stage of development. All countries support the notion that Wagner's law in its pure form may have reached its limit in recent decades.

Conventional R&D-based growth theory argues that productivity growth is driven by population growth but the data suggest that the erstwhile positive correlation between population and productivity turned negative during the 20th century. In order to resolve this problem we integrate R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The model explains the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The ongoing child quality-quantity trade-off during the transition explains why in modern economies high growth of productivity and income is associated with low or negative population growth. Because growth in modern economies is based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries - are much better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.

Robert Triffin became famous with his trenchant analyses of the vulnerabilities of the Bretton Woods system. These are still at the center of many discussions today. This paper argues that there is a remarkable continuity in Triffin's work. From his earliest writings, Triffin developed a vision that the international adjustment process was not functioning according to the classical mechanisms. This view was based on thorough empirical analyses of the Belgian economy during the Great Depression and shaped by a business cycle perspective with an emphasis on the disequilibria and the transition period. His doctoral dissertation on imperfect competition theory and his Latin American experience further reinforced this basic view.

That cliometrics is an indispensable tool in the study of economic history is no longer a very controversial statement. It is now generally agreed that economic theory, combined with new data as well as historical, statistical and mathematical methods are necessary at the theoretical level, to formulate problems precisely, to draw conclusions from postulates and to gain insight into workings of complicated processes and, at the applied level, to measure variables, to estimates parameters and to organize the elaborate calculations involved in reaching empirical results. This article is an illustration of the author's belief in this principle., Historical Social Research Vol. 37, No. 4 (2012)

Die Arbeit befasst sich mit der Geschichte des Handwerks in Russland und speziell in St. Petersburg im 18. und 19. Jahrhundert. Es wird gezeigt, welche große Bedeutung das Handwerk in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte Russlands spielt. Auf der Grundlage umfangreicher Quellenmaterialien mit vorwiegend wirtschaftsgeschichtlichen Methoden wird die Lage des Petersburger Handwerks und der Handwerker im Zusammenhang mit der Industrialisierung analysiert. Dabei wird die Rolle der ausländischen Handwerker gewürdigt, die nachhaltige Innovationen einführten. Dazu gehört das Verhältnis zwischen Zunftmitgliedern und neu vom Land zugewanderten Handwerkern. Diese Arbeit schließt eine erhebliche Forschungslücke und stellt zum ersten Mal das Petersburger Handwerk und seine Selbstverwaltungsstruktur angemessen dar. Recent studies have shown that the history of the urban craftsman has been insufficiently explored in St. Petersburg during the 18-19th centuries. Indeed rich and varied archival research has revealed the growth of handicrafts alongside the development of industrialization and modernization. Special attention has been devoted to analyzing the social, economic and juridical rights and status of urban craftsman, and as a result research has revealed the important contribution guilds had to the development of self-administration, to the protection of corporate interests and to the shaping of cultural and professional organizations, especially with the introduction of technical and professional standards. After a closer examination of the history of craftsmen in St. Petersburg, the author concludes that guilds played an important role in organizing the technical education and preparation of professionals for engaging in medium to large-scale industry. It is important to emphasize that foreign craftsmen, organized in German guilds, often played the role of mediator for new technologies and innovative solutions. В монографии показана малоизученная история городского ремесла на примере Санкт-Петербурга XVIII-XIX веков. C помощью богатого архивного материала проанализировано развитие ремесла и роль индустриализации в его модернизации. Особое внимание в работе уделяется социальному, экономическому и правовому положению ремесленников. При этом показана роль цехов в развитии городского самоуправления и защите корпоративных интересов, в формировании культуры самоуправления и профессиональной организации, как регуляторов при введении технических стандартов. Проанализировав историю ремесла Петербурга, автор приходит к выводу, что цехи играли важную роль в организации ремесленного образования и подготовке специалистов для предприятий средней и крупной промышленности. При этом важно подчеркнуть, что иностранные ремесленники, организованные в немецких цехах, нередко играли роль проводников новых технологий и инновационных решений. Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD)

Individuals’ choices of educational content are often shaped by the political economy of government policies that determine the incentives to acquire various skills. We first present a model to show how differences in educational content emerge as an equilibrium outcome of private decisions and government policy choices. We then illustrate these dynamics in two historical circumstances. In medieval Europe, states and the Church found individuals trained in Roman law valuable, and eventually supported investments in this new form of human capital. This had positive effects on Europe’s commercial and institutional development. In late 19th-century China, elites were afraid of the introduction of Western science and engineering and continued to select civil servants - who enjoyed substantial rents—based on their knowledge of Confucian classics. As a result, China lacked skills useful in modern industry. Finally, we present a variety of other contemporary and historical applications of this theory.

We investigate the persistence of levels of self-employment and new business formation in different time periods and under different framework conditions. The analysis shows that high levels of regional self-employment and new business formation tend to be persistent for periods as long as 80 years and that such an entrepreneurial culture can even survive abrupt and drastic changes in the politic-economic environment. We thus conclude that regional entrepreneurship cultures do exist and that they have long-lasting effects.

Die Einzahlungen und Burgschaften im Rahmen des Europaischen Stabilisierungsmechanismus (ESM) fuhren zu einer starken Belastung der soliden Eurolander — ob das Kapital uberhaupt ausreicht, ist zudem nicht sicher. Sinnvoller ware es, nicht die Staatsschulden in den Fokus zu nehmen, sondern die Banken, die in der Krise hohe Verluste erleiden. Fur ein Verfahren zur Bankenrettung gibt es historische Vorbilder: beispielsweise die Tilgungsfonds nach der deutschen Bankenkrise 1931/1932 und den Wahrungsreformen 1948 und 1990.

In 1979, when anthropometric history was still in its infancy, Robert Fogel and collaborators reported that the height of the US male white population began to decline quite unexpectedly around the birth cohorts of 1830. This was quite a conundrum on account of the fact that according to conventional economic theory nutritional status was not expected to diminish at the outset of modern economic growth, i.e., at a time when incomes were growing robustly. Although many hypotheses were offered, not until 1987 was the comprehensive solution to the puzzle offered that the height decline was due primarily to a decline in food consumption: agricultural productivity did not keep pace with rapid population growth and urbanization. However, it took a third of a century for a Kuhnian paradigm shift to occur until most of the participants in the debate accepted the model elucidated by Komlos in 1987.

Die Begriffe Wohlfahrt und Wohlstand werden in ihrem dogmenhistorischen Entstehungskontext untersucht. Dabei wird zum einen der Schwerpunkt auf die von den Physiokraten, aber auch von John Stuart Mill, W. Stanley Jevons und sogar von deutschen Ordoliberalen thematisierten Wachstumsgrenzen gelegt (Teil 2), zum anderen wird die Entwicklung der neoklassischen Ökonomik seit 1850 betrachtet, die bis in die zweite Hälfte des letzten Jahrhunderts um eine quasi-naturwissenschaftliche nutzentheoretische Fundierung dieser Begriffe bemüht war (Teil 3). Welfare and wealth are discussed as central economic notions in the context of the history of economic thought. One focus is laid on the limits to economic growth discussed already by 18th century Physiocrats and in the 19th century especially by John Stuart Mill and W. Stanley Jevons; the other focus is on the evolution of neoclassical economics up to the 2nd half of the 20th century, with special emphasis on its various attempts establish utilitarian foundations for these notions.

"Using survey and administrative micro data, the authors describe the wealth distribution in Germany between 1978 and 2003, focusing on the birth cohort 1939 to 1953 resident in West Germany. Estimates are provided for three types of wealth, financial wealth, real wealth and social security wealth, i.e. the number of accumulated earning points in Germany's public pension insurance. While financial and real wealth are rather unequally distributed, inequality in accumulated earning points is substantially lower, indicating that Germany's pay-as-you-go pension system plays a prominent role in mitigating the inequality in overall wealth after retirement." (author's abstract)

[no abstract]

We investigate the effect of Reformed Protestantism, relative to Catholicism, on preferences for leisure, and for redistribution and intervention in the economy. We use a Fuzzy Spatial Regression Dis- continuity Design to exploit a historical quasi-experiment inWestern Switzerland, where in the 16th century a hitherto homogeneous re- gion was split and one part assigned to adopt Protestantism. We nd that Reformed Protestantism reduces referenda voting for more leisure by 12, for redistribution by 7, and for government interven- tion by 6 percentage points. These preferences translate into higher per capita income as well as greater income inequality., KOF Working Papers, 309

Die deutsche und französische Stahlindustrie hat sich zugleich in einer ähnlichen und gegensätzlichen Weise während des 20. Jahrhunderts entwickelt. Das ist die Folge der Anpassung zur Globalisierung, die in diesem Industriezweig sehr frühzeitig war. Abwechselnd oder gleichzeitig wurden verschiedene Strategien verwandt : kommerzielle Verbreitung im Ausland, Vereinbarungen, technischer Fortschritt und finanzielle Zusammenschlüsse. Trotz dieser Ähnlichkeiten sind die Ergebnisse sehr verschieden, wie die heutige Lage zeigt. In Frankreich mit der Übernahme von Arcelor durch Mittal verschwand das letzte unabhängige Unternehmen. Doch in Deutschland gibt es noch eine nationale Stahlindustrie. Die Gründe dafür kann man wahrscheinlich in der Umgebung der Unternehmen suchen. Im französischen Fall wurden offensichtlich weniger Massnahmen für die Aufrechterhaltung des Sektors getroffen. Man soll auch das Management der Unternehmen berücksichtigen, das in Deutschland mehr effizient wurde. Dieser Industriezweig wird auch durch den Mangel an deutsch-französischen Fusionierungen gekennzeichnet. Eine treffende Ausnahme bilden die Dillinger Hütten, die im Saarland trotz ihrer mittleren Größe bedeutende Erfolge durch ihre Spezialisierung auf dem Export gewinnen., La sidérurgie a connu en France et en Allemagne une évolution à la fois semblable et contrastée, résultat d'adaptations successives à la mondialisation, à l'oeuvre dans ce secteur dès la fi n du XIXe siècle. Tour à tour ou simultanément, ont été utilisées à cette fin la pénétration commerciale à l'étranger, les ententes, le progrès technique, la concentration financière. Malgré la similitude des approches, les résultats sont contrastés, comme le montre, en France, depuis le rachat d'Arcelor par Mittal, la disparition de la dernière entité autonome, contrairement à l'Allemagne qui a su conserver une sidérurgie nationale. On peut s'interroger sur les raisons de ce contraste. Sans doute convient-il de les chercher dans l'environnement dans lequel se situent les firmes. Celui-ci semble avoir été moins propice au maintien du secteur dans le cas français. Mais il faut aussi tenir compte de la gestion des entreprises, souvent plus performante en Allemagne. Une dernière particularité du secteur est l'absence de tout regroupement franco-allemand, à quelques exceptions près telles que les Dillinger Hütte, entreprise sarroise qui, malgré une taille moyenne, remporte d'appréciables succès en se spécialisant dans les grands contrats à l'exportation.

The first scientific paper, chapter two focuses on human capital as an important determinant of living standards. Human capital is proxied with the age-heaping technique. Additionally in this article, literacy evidence is provided to cross-check the results. As an indicator of the biological standard of living, human stature is used. The chapter provides a large data set on Portuguese living standards from the early 18th to the 20th centuries. It answers the question: When and why did the Portuguese become the shortest Europeans? In order to find the answer to this question, the trend in Portuguese living standards from the 1720s until recent times is estimated with Maximum Likelihood and OLS techniques. The data shows that during the early nineteenth century average height in Portugal did not differ significantly from average height in most other European countries. But when around 1850, their anthropometric values began to climb sharply, Portugal's, however, did not. In OLS and IV panel estimations, delays in both real-wage convergence and human capital formation in Portugal are found to be the main factors hindering any improvement there in the biological standard of living. Chapter three provides data on human capital development for seven Latin Ameri-can countries from the 17th to the 20th centuries, a geographical region and time period, where data was scarce until now. It is found that Latin America was on a path of conver-gence with Western Europe during the early 18th century. During the early 19th century, not only did numeracy development stagnate in some Latin American countries but differences among some of them increased. While numeracy rates in Argentina, Uruguay, and to a lesser extent Brazil, underwent, along with Europe, a significant increase in the late 19th century, they declined in Mexico, Ecuador, and Colombia. It is found that mass immigration contributed to human capital formation in countries like Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil. Chapter four analyzes the impact of human capital selective migration on destina-tion countries. By providing new evidence on Brazilian human capital formation in the very long run and data on the human capital endowment of Brazilian immigrants during the age of mass migration, it is shown that human capital of international migrants can induce spillover effects to overall human capital accumulation that persist until today. It is argued that human capital formation is a highly path dependent and persistent process. In a panel of Brazilian regions, increases in numeracy are significantly positively related with the increase in absolute immigrant population per state. Thus the states that received most migrants also developed most quickly in terms of human capital. Chapter five explores the question of whether relative inequality in source and des-tination countries matters for the brain-drain phenomenon. Human capital selectivity during the 1820s to the 1900s is analyzed. In a sample of 52 source and five destination countries selective migration is found to be determined by relative anthropometric inequality in source and destination countries. The results remain robust in OLS, IV and GMM approaches. These results confirm the Roy model of migrant self-selection (Roy 1951, Borjas 1987). Moreover, the evidence shows that countries like Germany and UK experienced a small positive effect, because the less educated emigrated in larger numbers. Chapter six provides a new data set on human capital selectivity of female migrants during the first global era. Census data for five major immigrant countries show that during the 19th century migration, women made up above 40 percent of migrants, whose experience has been somewhat neglected by scholars, so far. The determinants of female human capital selectivity are estimated. In the empirical analysis, it is shown that skill selectivity of married women are driven by relative inequality, whereas single women’s migration decision is determined by proxies for migration costs such as distance and common language. The results shed light on the female experience of the era of mass migrations. The thesis ends with a summary and provides some directions for further research. Das erste Kapitel ist einleitender Natur. Dann folgt Kapitel zwei, das erste inhaltliche Kapitel. Es konzentriert sich auf die Frage ob Humankapital einen messbaren Einfluss auf den anthropometrischen Lebensstandard hat. Humankapital wird, wie in der gesamten Arbeit, mit der Age-Heaping-Methode gemessen. Hier nutzt man die Rundung von Altersangaben als Indikator für grundlegendes Humankapital einer Gesellschaft. In diesem Artikel werden auch Daten zur Lese- und Rechtschreibfähigkeit herangezogen, um die Ergebnisse zu verifizieren. Insgesamt wird in diesem Kapitel eine sehr umfangreiche Datenbasis für Portugal, vom frühen 18. Bis zum Ende des 20. Jahrhunderts zusammengetragen und analysiert. Ausgehend von der Frage, warum die Portugiesen im Jahr 2000 die kleinsten unter den europäischen Völkern sind, stellen die Autoren fest, dass dies schon seit Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts der Fall ist. Im 18. Jahrhundert befinden sich die Portugiesen noch im europäischen Mittelfeld. Gründe für diese Entwicklung sind die schleppende Humankapital- und Reallohnentwicklung in Portugal ab der Zeit der Industrialisierung. Auch im zwanzigsten Jahrhundert kann Portugal, trotz insgesamt guter Zuwachsraten nicht mit der Entwicklung des restlichen Kontinents mithalten.Das dritte Kapitel stellt zum ersten Mal eine sehr umfangreiche Datenbasis für sieben lateinamerikanische Länder zum Thema Humankapital zusammen. Dies ist möglich, da die portugiesischen und spanischen Eroberer sehr frühe Volkszählungen durchführten. Die empirische Evidenz zeigt, dass lateinamerikanische Humankapitaltrends sich im 18. Jahrhundert noch auf das europäische Niveau annäherten, jedoch ab den Unabhängigkeitskriegen stagnierten. Die innerlateinamerikanische Ungleichheit der Bildung nahm gleichzeitig zu. Die Autoren finden einen Zusammenhang zwischen europäischer Einwanderung in großen Zahlen und einer guten Performanz der Zahlenfähigkeit in Argentinien, Uruguay, und etwas schwächer, in Brasilien.Das vierte Kapitel analysiert den Einfluss humankapitalselektiver Einwanderung in Brasilien während der ersten Globalisierungsphase. Ein sehr langer Humankapitaltrend für Brasilien wird konstruiert. Zugleich werden auch erstmals neue Humankapitaldaten für brasilianische Einwanderer erhoben. Ausgehend von dieser Datenbasis können Spillover-Effekte von der Humankapitalausstattung von Einwanderern auf die des Ziellandes festgestellt werden. Es wird die Ansicht vertreten, dass Humankapitalformation eine pfadabhängige und zeitlich persistente Entwicklung ist. In einem Längsschnitt brasilianischer Regionen kann ein statistisch signifikanter Zusammenhang von Humankapitalzuwachs und absolutem Zuwachs der Einwandererzahlen festgestellt werden. Das fünfte Kapitel untersucht, ob relative Ungleichheit in Sende- und Zielländern einen Zusammenhang mit dem wirtschaftspolitisch bedeutenden Thema des Brain-Drain, also der Auswanderung von gut gebildeten Arbeitskräften ist. Daten für den Zeitraum 1820 – 1900 werden in dieser Studie analysiert. Insgesamt wird eine Datenbasis für 52 Herkunfts- und fünf Zielländer bereitgestellt. Relative Ungleichheit spielt eine statistisch signifikante und wichtige Rolle in der humankapitalselektiven Auswanderung. Dieses Ergebnis ist sehr robust. Es werden sowohl OLS, als auch Instrument Variablen Schätzungen, sowie ein GMM Schätzer verwendet. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen das theoretische Modell von Roy (1951) und Borjas (1987) zum Thema Migrationsselektivität. Darüber hinaus zeigt diese Studie, dass Länder wie Deutschland und das Vereinigte Königreich einen kleinen positiven Effekt zu verzeichnen hatten, da im betrachteten Zeitraum eher schlecht ausgebildete Migranten diese Länder verließen.Das sechste Kapitel wendet sich weiblicher Humankapitalselektivität im 19. Jahrhundert zu. Während in der heutigen Zeit deutlich mehr Frauen als Männer migrieren, waren auch schon im neunzehnten Jahrhundert sehr viele Frauen unter den Migranten der ersten Globalisierungsphase. Eine Tatsache, die in der wirtschaftsgeschichtlichen Forschung bisher kaum beachtet wurde. Aus Zensusdaten wird eine umfangreiche Datenbasis für weibliche Migranten erstellt. Anschließend werden die Determinanten weiblicher Humankapitalselektivität geschätzt. Es stellt sich heraus, dass verheiratete Frauen generell eine andere Selektivität aufweisen als Alleinstehende. Während relative Ungleichheit bei verheirateten Frauen eine signifikante Rolle spielt, reagieren Alleinstehende Frauen eher auf unmittelbare Kostenindikatoren wie gemeinsame Sprache oder geographische Distanz. Die Arbeit endet mit einer Zusammenfassung und Ideen für weiterführende Forschungsfragen.

This paper investigates the impact of the history of crises on macroeconomic performance. We first study the impact of past banking crises on the probability of a future banking crisis. Applying data for 1980 - 2010 for all countries for which the required information is available, controlling for conventional macro variables and the history of banking crises occurring after 1970, we do not detect a learning process from past banking crises. Countries that have already experienced one banking crisis generally have a higher likelihood of experiencing another crisis; and the depth of the present crisis does not appear to be affected by the previous historical experience with crisis events. Evidence also suggests that, in middle-income countries, higher de jure capital account openness is associated with lower likelihood of a banking crisis, a lower ratio of non-performing loans during the crisis, and higher levels of forgone output in the crisis' aftermath. In contrast, we find that past crisis experience has a significant impact on savings. When facing considerable political risk, the past does seem to matter - countries with more people who were exposed, over their lifetime, to larger disasters will tend to save more. This association, however, does not hold for countries with more stable political systems. We interpret these results as consistent with a differential sectoral adjustment to a crises hypothesis. The private sector, by virtue of its harder budget constraints, adjusts faster, whereas the government adjusts at a slower pace following a crisis. The financial sector may find itself in between the two. The too big to fail doctrine associated with large banks provides them with a softer budget constraint, delaying the day of adjustment; for some, delaying bankruptcy. Occasionally, the separation between banks and the public sector is murky, further delaying necessary adjustments of the financial sector.

We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature - despite important implications for modern-day pandemics. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. Using difference-in-differences and high-quality administrative data from Sweden, we estimate the effects on earnings, capital returns and poverty. We find that the pandemic led to a significant increase in poverty rates. There is also relatively strong evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. On the other hand, we find robust evidence that the influenza had no discernible effect on earnings. This finding is surprising since it goes against most previous empirical studies as well as theoretical predictions.

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the North Caucasus is known as a politically unstable region and as a melting pot for terrorism and all kinds of criminal activity, reaching from drugtrafficking and illegal arms trade to hijacking and extortion. Furthermore, the North Caucasus is one of Russia's poorest and least developed regions. Although the role of Islam as a destabilizing factor should not be overestimated, it is a determining characteristic regarding the region's past and current development. The paper considers specific influencing factors like the North Caucasus' geographical location, foreign influence, its Soviet past, its history of Islamization, its societal structure, its ethnic heterogeneity and the prevalent Russian institutional vacuum with a focus on Islam and its local characteristics. Then it is questioned whether sustainable socio-economic development is possible within the prevalent institutional environment and whether Islam plays a decisive role or not. It is discovered, that weak governance on the central and regional levels and the inability to implement and enforce the rule of law are responsible for the region's socio-economic situation. The form of societal organization plays a role, too. These factors, however, are historically determined and will therefore persist, in part even in the long run.

This paper reconsiders the role of monetary policy in Sweden’s strong recovery from the Great Depression. The Riksbank in the 1930s is sometimes seen as an example of a central bank that was relatively innovative in terms of the conduct of monetary policy. To consider this analytically, we estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using Bayesian methods. We find that the model captures the key dynamics of the period surprisingly well. Importantly, our findings suggest that Sweden avoided the worst excesses of the depression by conducting conservative rather than innovative monetary policy. We find that, by keeping the Swedish krona undervalued to replenish foreign reserves, Sweden’s exchange rate policy unintentionally contributed to the Swedish growth miracle of the 1930s, avoiding a major slump in 1932 and enabling the country to benefit quickly from the eventual recovery of world demand.

The late Middle Ages witnessed the transformation of the county of Holland from a peripheral agrarian region to a highly commercialised and urbanised one. This book examines how the organisation of commodity markets contributed to this remarkable development. Comparing Holland to England and Flanders, the book shows that Holland's specific history of reclamation and settlement had given rise to a favourable balance of powers between state, nobility, towns and rural communities that reduced opportunities for rent-seeking and favoured the rise of efficient markets. This allowed burghers, peasants and fishermen to take full advantage of new opportunities presented by changing economic and ecological circumstances in the late fourteenth and early fifteenth centuries.

Literature on convergence among Latin American countries is still scarce compared to other regions. Almost none of the research connects convergence to the economic history of Latin America and the usual finding is one speed of convergence assuming one globally stable steady-state. In this paper I analyze 32 countries and 108 years, more observations than any other study, which allows me to use chronological events to explain, analyze and validate the historical convergence clubs in Latin America, assuming multiple steady-states. The chronological time-line is divided into three important known phases, from which I find two to three convergence clubs. Following Thorp (1998), the first phase, called the exporting phase goes from 1900 to 1930, the second, the industrialization phase from 1931 to 1974, and the last one, the globalization phase from 1975 to 2007. During the last two phases, I find strong evidence of convergence among those clubs that succeeded in industrializing and / or building good institutions. The reason may be that technology diffusion and capital accumulation is easier when these two phenomena occur. Furthermore, I find no evidence that geographical aspects nor integration processes helped countries to converge.

"The line of heterodox economic thinking named 'the economics of conventions' emerged in the 1980s in France. Four among its six founding fathers had a strong background in statistics and were working at INSEE (the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research). However, the numerous and fruitful researches in the line of this new paradigm have only slightly used the quantitative methods (above all econometrics) that are widely spread in mainstream economics as well as in other heterodox movements, e.g. the French school of regulation. In order to provide a rationale for this paradox, we are lead to set the development of the economics of conventions within a broader history of economics and social sciences. Indeed, from the 1980s onwards, social sciences have gone through a movement of bifurcation that brought about a deep change in the scientific and political status of quantification. Monitoring this movement leads to address the issue of the relationships between the search for theoretical reflexivity and the social demand for expertise addressed to economics." (author's abstract)

"Soziale Marktwirtschaft und Soziale Gerechtigkeit - Mythos, Anspruch und Wirklichkeit. Die Konzeptionen des Ordoliberalismus und die praktische Wirtschaftspolitik in der bundesdeutschen Nachkriegsgeschichte unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der wirtschaftsethischen Leitmotive. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich sowohl aus ideengeschichtlicher als auch aus wirtschafts- und sozialgeschichtlicher Perspektive mit den Konzeptionen der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft und der Sozialen Gerechtigkeit. Dabei wird dargestellt, wie versucht wurde, die zentralen wirtschaftsethischen Postulate der Vordenker des Ordoliberalismus (Orientierung der Wirtschaftspolitik an der Lebenswirklichkeit der beteiligten Personen, Entproletarisierung, Förderung von Sesshaftigkeit und gegenseitiger Verantwortung in überschaubaren Gemeinschaften) mittels wirtschafts- und sozialpolitischer Weichenstellungen umzusetzen und wie diese Herangehensweise unter dem Gesichtspunkt der Pfadabhängigkeit an ihre Grenzen stieß. Darauf aufbauend werden Perspektiven für eine Erneuerung der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft unter den Bedingungen der Gegenwart aufgezeigt." (Autorenreferat) "This paper deals with the idea of a social market economy and the norm of social justice from a historical point of view. A comparison of the concepts of ordo-liberalism on the one hand and economic and social policy in Germany after the Second World War on the other hand shows that the implementation of the main ethical postulates of the founders of ordo-liberalism has been carried out by means and institutions, which are quite different from the instruments proposed e Eucken, Röpke, Rüstow, and Müller-Armack. Nevertheless, it can be substantiated that most of the ethical foundations of ordo-liberalism had a very decisive influence on economic and social policy in Germany after 1945. Subsequently, the paper investigates the limitations of this political and economic approach, especially with regard to the Problem of path dependence, and analyzes some possibilities to achieve the ethical postulates of the founders of ordo-liberalism under the economic conditions of our time." (author's abstract)

In this essay I review Sylvia Nasar's long awaited new history of economics, Grand Pursuit. I describe how the book is an economic history of the period from 1850-1950, with distinguished economists' stories inserted in appropriate places. Nasar's goal is to show how economists work, but also to show that they are people too - with more than enough warts and foibles to show they are human! I contrast the general view of the role of economics in Grand Pursuit with Robert Heilbroner's remarkably different conception in The Worldly Philosophers. I also discuss more generally the question of why economists might be interested in their history at all.

This introduction and the contributions of the HSR issue intend to develop and to demonstrate the potentialities of the economics of convention (EC) for a transdisciplinary approach to the history of economies. 'Convention' has become a core concept in the renewal of French social sciences from structuralism towards pragmatism. Conventions are interpretative schemes for action and coordination that persons and actors use in situations under conditions of uncertainty. Through repeated interaction they become an intimate part of the history, incorporated into justifications, behaviours and social objects like institutions. In contrast to neoclassic economics and to new historical institutionalism, the EC starts from assumptions of a plurality of economic frameworks of action, of the socio-historical construction of concepts, categories, and data. It rejects dichotomies, adopts a broad conception of the economy, conceives institutional change as the change of the 'conventional' foundations for the pragmatic use and interpretation of institutions. Its methodology is that of a 'complex pragmatist situationalism', dedicated to a comprehensive approach aiming at reconstructing the internal going-on of historical processes. This special issue offers a set of contributions on: the origins of the approach, its methodological standpoint, its possible developments towards a sociology of engagement or hermeneutical concerns, several applications on economic history (notably about conventions of quality and of labor)., Historical Social Research Vol. 36, No. 4 (2011): Special Issue: Conventions and Institutions from a Historical Perspective. Starting Point and Frequency: Year: 1979, Issues per volume: 4, Volumes per year: 1

We analyze the role of risk-sharing institutions in transitions to modern economies. Transitions requires individual-level risk-taking in pursuing productivity-enhancing activities including using and developing new knowledge. Individual-level, idiosyncratic risk implies that distinct risk-sharing institutions - even those providing the same level of insurance - can lead to different growth trajectories if they differently motivate risk-taking. Historically, risk sharing institutions were selected based on their cultural and institutional compatibility and not their unforeseen growth implications. We simulate our growth model incorporating England's and China's distinct pre-modern risk-sharing institutions. The model predicts a transition in England and not China even with equal levels of risk sharing. Under the clan-based Chinese institution, the relatively risk-averse elders had more control over technological choices implying lower risk-taking. Focusing on non-market institutions expands on previous growth-theoretic models to highlight that transitions can transpire even in the absence of exogenous productivity shocks or time-dependent state variables. Recognizing the role of non-market institutions in the growth process bridges the view that transitions are due to luck and the view that transitions are inevitable. Transitions transpire when luck creates the conditions under which economic agents find it beneficial to make the choices leading to positive rates of technological change. Luck came in the form of historical processes leading to risk-sharing institutions whose unintended consequences encouraged productivity-enhancing risk-taking.

"This paper is devoted to Robert Fogel, the spiritual and/or intellectual son of Simon Kuznets. Master in cliometrics, he is the winner (with Douglass North) of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics for having renewed research in economic history by applying economic theory and quantitative methods in order to explain economic and institutional change." (author's abstract)

The paper analyzes the financial crisis of through the lens of market failures and regulatory failures. We present a case that there were four primary failures contributing to the crisis: excessive risk-taking in the financial sector due to mispriced government guarantees; regulatory focus on individual institution risk rather than systemic risk; opacity of positions in financial derivatives that produced externalities from individual firm failures; and runs on the unregulated banking sector that eventually threatened to bring down the entire financial sector. In emphasizing the role of regulatory failures, we provide a description of regulatory evolution in response to the panic of 1907 and the Great Depression, why the regulation put in place then was successful in addressing market failures, but how, over time, especially around the resolutions of Continental Illinois, Savings and Loans crisis and Long-Term Capital Management, expectations of too-big-to-fail status got anchored. We propose specific reforms to address the four market and regulatory failures we identify, and we conclude with some lessons for emerging markets.

This postscript discusses the contributions to the special issue of HSR in the light of recent interdisciplinary studies an markets and market societies. It picks out the problem of legitimacy, the importance of events in the formation of markets and the configuration of fields, the role of disorder in the evolution of markets and the relation of markets and fields as the major threads running through the issue and identifies the investigation of the development of modern capitalism as a pressing task for future collaborative research by sociologists, historians, and political scientists., Historical Social Research Vol. 36, No. 3 (2011): Special Issue: Change of Markets and Market Societies: Concepts and Case Studies. Starting Point and Frequency: Year: 1979, Issues per volume: 4, Volumes per year: 1

Cesar Virata's tenure as secretary/minister of Finance is the longest held by any head of department in Philippine history. This study reviews his contributions to the evolution and reform of the Philippine tax system which were significant, sustained and consistent. His contributions helped to bring the internal and customs revenues of the country toward their present state.

Based on the variable rate of gross domestic product per capita growth and its sources, this paper first identifies five phases of economic development that are common to China, Japan, and Korea: M (Malthusian), G (government-led), K (à la Kuznets), H (human capital based) and PD (post demographic-transition). But there are also marked differences in the onset, duration, and institutional forms of these phases across these economies. In order to understand these differences, this paper explores the agrarian origins of institutions in Qing China and Tokugawa Japan (and briefly Choson Korea) and their path-dependent transformations over those phases. In doing so, the paper employs game-theoretic reasoning and interpretations of divergent institutional evolution between China and Japan, which also clarifies the simplicity of prevailing arguments that identify East Asian developmental and institutional features with authoritarianism, collectivism, kinshipdominance, Confucianism and the like. Finally, the paper examines the relevance of the foregoing developmental discussions to the institutional agendas faced by the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Japan in their respective emergent phase-transitions. In what way can the PRC avoid the "middle income trap"? What institutional shortcomings become evident from the Fukushima catastrophe and how can they be overcome in an aging Japan?

Ferdinand E. Marcos was the Philippine president from 1966 to 1986, a period exceeding twenty years. After serving as a two-term president of the Philippines from 1966-1972, he declared martial law under the constitution to assume dictatorial powers to tame the political chaos that was then engulfing the nation. In 1981, he ended the martial law period. The political framework that he adopted was patterned after the 1973 Constitution with amendments introduced and accepted by popular referendum concerning an elected parliament. He was driven from power in 1986. This paper reviews the economic and social contributions that his years in office brought to the country. During his period of rule, there were major reforms in government organization, in the provision of public infrastructure, and in social and economic development. In making the final accounting for Marcos, the paper concludes that the balance sheet is very positive. Many of the problems that continue to hound the nation today are the result of decisions taken during the transition from Marcos by the successor government. These mistakes are discussed. This paper contributes to the proper assessment of the country's long term economic and social problems. Naturally, the judgment of history will be made through the future assessments of social historians, economists, and other social scientists. This paper represents one such analysis.

Historical Social Research Vol. 36, No. 3 (2011): Special Issue: Change of Markets and Market Societies: Concepts and Case Studies. Starting Point and Frequency: Year: 1979, Issues per volume: 4, Volumes per year: 1

We present the first broadly representative study for any early twentieth century economy of the extent to which quoted company ownership was already divorced from managerial control. In the 337 largest, independent, UK companies in the Investor's Year Book (those with £1m or more share capital in 1911) the two million outside shareholders were fewer than today's shareholding population, but they held 97.5% of the shares in the median company and their directors only 2.5%. This indicates a lower level of personal ownership by boards, and of director voting control, in the largest securities market of the early twentieth century than in any of the world.s major securities markets toward the end of that century. Berle, Means, Gordon and others later quantified the USA's delayed (and on this dimension less advanced) managerial revolution. Their evidence has been widely misinterpreted: some erroneously concluded that America pioneered this aspect of modernity and that the divorce of ownership from control, globally, was a new and continuing trend.

Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zur Messung von Konjunkturzyklen und deren Zusammenhänge zu demographischen Variablen liefern. Der erste Essay analysiert unter Zuhilfenahme eines Bayesianischen Dynamischen Faktormodelles die Volatilität des US-amerikanischen Konjunkturzyklus seit 1867. In dem Essay wird gezeigt, dass die Volatilität in der Periode vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg und nachdem Zweiten Weltkrieg niedriger war als in der Zwischenkriegszeit. Eine geringere Volatilität für die Periode nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg im Vergleich zu der Periode vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg kann nicht bestätigt werden. Der zweite Essay hebt die Bayesianischen Eigenschaften bezüglich dynamischer Faktormodelle hervor. Der Essay zeigt, dass die ganze Analyse hindurch - im Gegensatz zu klassischen Ansätzen - keine Annahmen an die Persistenz der Zeitreihen getroffen werden muss. Des Weiteren wird veranschaulicht, wie im Bayesianischen Rahmen die Anzahl der Faktoren bestimmt werden kann. Der dritte Essay entwickelt einen neuen Ansatz, um altersspezifische Sterblichkeitsraten zu modellieren. Kovariate werden mit einbezogen und ihre Dynamik wird gemeinsam mit der von latenten Variablen, die allen Alterklassen zugrunde liegen, modelliert. Die Resultate bestätigen, dass makroökonomische Variablen Prognosekraft für die Sterblichkeit beinhalten. Im vierten Essay werden makroökonomischen Zeitreihen zusammen mit altersspezifischen Sterblichkeitsraten einer strukturellen Analyse unterzogen. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich die Sterblichkeit von jungen Erwachsenen in Abhängigkeit von Konjunkturzyklen deutlich von den der anderen Alterklassen unterscheidet. Daher sollte in solchen Analysen, um Scheinkorrelation vorzubeugen, zwischen den einzelnen Altersklassen differenziert werden. The thesis consists of four essays, which make empirical and methodological contributions to the fields of business cycle analysis and demography. The first essay presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from a Bayesian dynamic factor model. The essay finds that volatility increased in the interwar periods, which is reversed after World War II. While evidence can be generated of postwar moderation relative to pre-1914, this evidence is not robust to structural change, implemented by time-varying factor loadings. The second essay scrutinizes Bayesian features in dynamic index models. The essay shows that large-scale datasets can be used in levels throughout the whole analysis, without any pre-assumption on the persistence. Furthermore, the essay shows how to determine the number of factors accurately by computing the Bayes factor. The third essay presents a new way to model age-specific mortality rates. Covariates are incorporated and their dynamics are jointly modeled with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to the literature, a similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. The essay demonstrates that time series of covariates contain predictive power for age-specific rates. Furthermore, it is observed that in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts, implicating that ignoring parameter uncertainty might yield misleadingly precise predictions. In the fourth essay the model developed in the third essay is utilized to conduct a structural analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and age-specific mortality rates. The results reveal that the mortality of young adults, concerning business cycles, noticeably differ from the rest of the population. This implies that differentiating closely between particular age classes, might be important in order to avoid spurious results.