301. Spatial and temporal changes in South African solar ultraviolet-B exposure: implications for threatened taxa
- Author
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McDonald, D. J., Musil, C. F., Rutherford, M. C., Powrie, L. W., and Bjorn, L. O.
- Subjects
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CLIMATE change , *ENDANGERED species , *PLANTS , *SOLAR radiation - Abstract
Spatial and temporal changes in South African solar UV-B (280-315 nm) exposure were modeled and mapped at 2.5 km2resolution using ozone, relative humidity, cloud amount and elevation data. Computations indicated large natural gradients in UV-B exposure ranging from a 34.2% change over 14 deg. of latitude to a 44.2% change over 16 deg. of longitude. Modelling of future scenarios in annual UV-B exposure indicated small increases ranging from 2.5% in the year 2003 (best-case ozone depletion scenario) to 8.1 % in the year 2051 (worst-caseozone-depletion scenario). Notable were substantial increases in intra-annual variability in UV-B radiation with ozone depletion. Exposure exhibits a 12% increase during late autumn (May) in the year 2003 and a 35% increase during this season in the year 2051. Taxonomic, life form and functional attributes were analyzed in 2146 threatened (rare, endangered, vulnerable) species representing 468 genera and 103 families, and their distributions compared with modeled spatial and temporal UV-B distribution patterns. The high fractions of evergreen and succulent life forms and geophytes, present among threatened taxa, indicate a high degree of physiological resilience to increased solarUV-B stress, though some life forms, e.g. trees, appear relatively less resistant. Conceivable reductions in per capita reproductive output and overall plant fitness were indicated in some plant functional types, e.g. herbaceous annuals, which may lead to altered patterns ofspecies coexistence, floristic composition and diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1999