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Independent verification of national greenhouse gas inventories is a vital measure for cross-checking the accuracy of emissions data submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We infer annual UK emissions of HFC-134a from 1995 to 2012 using atmospheric observations and an inverse modeling technique, and compare with the UK's annual UNFCCC submission. By 2010, the inventory is almost twice as large as our estimates, with an "emissions gap" equating to 3.90 (3.20-4.30) Tg CO 2 e. We evaluate the RAC (Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning) model, a bottom up model used to quantify UK emissions from refrigeration and air-conditioning sectors. Within mobile air-conditioning (MAC), the largest RAC sector and most significant UK source (59%), we find a number of assumptions that may be considered oversimplistic and conservative; most notably the unit refill rate. Finally, a Bayesian approach is used to estimate probable inventory inputs required for minimization of the emissions discrepancy. Our top-down estimates provide only a weak constraint on inventory model parameters and consequently, we are unable to suggest discrete values. However, a significant revision of the MAC servicing rate, coupled with a reassessment of non-RAC aerosol emissions, are required if the discrepancy between methods is to be reduced.

Aim: To document the views of family members of people with an intellectual disability regarding implementation of a personalized model of social support in Ireland., Method: Forty family members participated in six focus groups. Data were thematically analysed., Results: Family members' preference for particular types of living arrangements were highly reflective of their lived experience. Facilitators to community living included timely information on proposed moves, adequate staffing, suitable properties and locations and consideration of the characteristics of individuals who share a property. Barriers included high support needs, advanced age, a fear of relinquishing current supports, a fear of the sustainability of newer models of residential support and concerns about community opposition., Conclusion: The family perspective to reform is characterized by fear and suspicion of the motivation behind these reforms, with cost efficiencies being perceived as a main driver. Greater information is required to empower families to make informed decisions., (© The Author(s) 2016.)

We have developed a chemical mechanism describing the tropospheric degradation of chlorine containing very short-lived substances (VSLS). The scheme was included in a global atmospheric model and used to quantify the stratospheric injection of chlorine from anthropogenic VSLS ( ClyVSLS) between 2005 and 2013. By constraining the model with surface measurements of chloroform (CHCl 3 ), dichloromethane (CH 2 Cl 2 ), tetrachloroethene (C 2 Cl 4 ), trichloroethene (C 2 HCl 3 ), and 1,2-dichloroethane (CH 2 ClCH 2 Cl), we infer a 2013 ClyVSLS mixing ratio of 123 parts per trillion (ppt). Stratospheric injection of source gases dominates this supply, accounting for ∼83% of the total. The remainder comes from VSLS-derived organic products, phosgene (COCl 2 , 7%) and formyl chloride (CHClO, 2%), and also hydrogen chloride (HCl, 8%). Stratospheric ClyVSLS increased by ∼52% between 2005 and 2013, with a mean growth rate of 3.7 ppt Cl/yr. This increase is due to recent and ongoing growth in anthropogenic CH 2 Cl 2 -the most abundant chlorinated VSLS not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.

We infer global and regional emissions of five of the most abundant hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) using atmospheric measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment and the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, networks. We find that the total CO2-equivalent emissions of the five HFCs from countries that are required to provide detailed, annual reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) increased from 198 (175-221) Tg-CO2-eq ⋅ y(-1) in 2007 to 275 (246-304) Tg-CO2-eq ⋅ y(-1) in 2012. These global warming potential-weighted aggregated emissions agree well with those reported to the UNFCCC throughout this period and indicate that the gap between reported emissions and global HFC emissions derived from atmospheric trends is almost entirely due to emissions from nonreporting countries. However, our measurement-based estimates of individual HFC species suggest that emissions, from reporting countries, of the most abundant HFC, HFC-134a, were only 79% (63-95%) of the UNFCCC inventory total, while other HFC emissions were significantly greater than the reported values. These results suggest that there are inaccuracies in the reporting methods for individual HFCs, which appear to cancel when aggregated together.

Background: Internationally, people with intellectual disability are socially marginalized, and their rights under the United Nations Convention for the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) are often ignored., Aims: This paper aims to define the key concerns of adults with an intellectual disability in relation to their participation in society using an inclusive research strategy for both data gathering and data analysis., Methods: A national study involving 23 focus groups and 168 persons was conducted on the island of Ireland with people with intellectual disability as co-facilitators., Findings: A thematic content analysis was undertaken of the verbatim transcripts initially by university co-researchers, and 19 themes were identified. Co-researchers with intellectual disability joined in identifying the eight core themes. These were as follows: living options, employment, relationships, citizenship, leisure time, money management, self-advocacy, and communication., Discussion: The concerns are discussed within the framework of the CRPD, and implications for transforming service policy are drawn., Accessible Abstract: Why we did the research In many countries, people with intellectual disability have difficulties doing things other people without disabilities do, for example to study, to get a job or to live independently. They also find that their rights are not respected under the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (the Convention). We did this study to Learn what are the main issues for adults with intellectual disability in Ireland. Do research with people with intellectual disability. How we did the research People with intellectual disability and their supporters worked with university researchers to plan and do the research. We met with people in groups and 168 people told us about things important to them. What we found out We found that there were very important things that people talked about in the groups. We chose the most important: living options, employment, relationships, rights, leisure, money, self-advocacy, and communication. We talk about the Convention and why things people told us are important for services., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The rates of ozonolysis of four sesquiterpenes, β-caryophyllene, α-humulene, isolongifolene and α-cedrene, are determined in the gas phase at an elevated temperature of 366 ± 3 K and a pressure of ~780 Torr using the EXTreme RAnge chamber (EXTRA). The experimentally obtained rate coefficients agree with extrapolated room temperature rate coefficients for isolongifolene and α-cedrene but not for β-caryophyllene and α-humulene, which were found to be three orders of magnitude slower than this in the literature. These new measurements support the hypothesis that operating under ambient conditions, kinetic measurements of condensable species can be influenced adversely by heterogeneous processes and should therefore be treated with caution., (This journal is © the Owner Societies 2012)

HFC-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) is under discussion for replacing HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) as a cooling agent in mobile air conditioners (MACs) in the European vehicle fleet. Some HFC-1234yf will be released into the atmosphere, where it is almost completely transformed to the persistent trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). Future emissions of HFC-1234yf after a complete conversion of the European vehicle fleet were assessed. Taking current day leakage rates and predicted vehicle numbers for the year 2020 into account, European total HFC-1234yf emissions from MACs were predicted to range between 11.0 and 19.2 Gg yr(-1). Resulting TFA deposition rates and rainwater concentrations over Europe were assessed with two Lagrangian chemistry transport models. Mean European summer-time TFA mixing ratios of about 0.15 ppt (high emission scenario) will surpass previously measured levels in background air in Germany and Switzerland by more than a factor of 10. Mean deposition rates (wet + dry) of TFA were estimated to be 0.65-0.76 kg km(-2) yr(-1), with a maxium of ∼2.0 kg km(-2) yr(-1) occurring in Northern Italy. About 30-40% of the European HFC-1234yf emissions were deposited as TFA within Europe, while the remaining fraction was exported toward the Atlantic Ocean, Central Asia, Northern, and Tropical Africa. Largest annual mean TFA concentrations in rainwater were simulated over the Mediterranean and Northern Africa, reaching up to 2500 ng L(-1), while maxima over the continent of about 2000 ng L(-1) occurred in the Czech Republic and Southern Germany. These highest annual mean concentrations are at least 60 times lower than previously determined to be a safe level for the most sensitive aquatic life-forms. Rainwater concentrations during individual rain events would still be 1 order of magnitude lower than the no effect level. To verify these results future occasional sampling of TFA in the atmospheric environment should be considered. If future HFC-1234yf emissions surpass amounts used here studies of TFA accumulation in endorheic basins and other sensitive areas should be aspired.

European emissions of nine representative halocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12, Halon 1211, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HCFC-22, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-152a) are derived for the year 2009 by combining long-term observations in Switzerland, Italy, and Ireland with campaign measurements from Hungary. For the first time, halocarbon emissions over Eastern Europe are assessed by top-down methods, and these results are compared to Western European emissions. The employed inversion method builds on least-squares optimization linking atmospheric observations with calculations from the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. The aggregated halocarbon emissions over the study area are estimated at 125 (106-150) Tg of CO(2) equiv/y, of which the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) make up the most important fraction with 41% (31-52%). We find that chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions from banks are still significant and account for 35% (27-43%) of total halocarbon emissions in Europe. The regional differences in per capita emissions are only small for the HFCs, while emissions of CFCs and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) tend to be higher in Western Europe compared to Eastern Europe. In total, the inferred per capita emissions are similar to estimates for China, but 3.5 (2.3-4.5) times lower than for the United States. Our study demonstrates the large benefits of adding a strategically well placed measurement site to the existing European observation network of halocarbons, as it extends the coverage of the inversion domain toward Eastern Europe and helps to better constrain the emissions over Central Europe.

It has been almost a decade since a previously unknown human toxic syndrome, azaspiracid poisoning (AZP), emerged as the cause of severe gastrointestinal illness in humans after the consumption of mussels (Mytilus edulis). Structural studies indicated that these toxins, azaspiracids, were of a new unprecedented class containing novel structural features. It is now known that the prevalent azaspiracids in mussels are AZA1, AZA2 and AZA3, which differ from each other in their degree of methylation. Several hydroxylated and carboxylated analogues of the main azaspiracids have also been identified, presumed to be metabolites of the main toxins. Since its first discovery in Irish mussels, the development of facile sensitive and selective LC-MS/MS methods has resulted in the discovery of AZA in other countries and in other species. Mice studies indicate that this toxin class can cause serious tissue injury, especially to the small intestine, and chronic exposure may increase the likelihood of the development of lung tumours. Studies also show that tissue recovery is very slow following exposure. These observations suggest that AZA is more dangerous than the other known classes of shellfish toxins. Consequently, in order to protect human consumers, proper risk assessment and regulatory control of shellfish and other affected species is of the utmost importance., (Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

HFC-365mfc (1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane) is an industrial chemical used for polyurethane foam blowing. From early 2003, HFC-365mfc has been commercially produced as a substitute for HCFC-141b, whose use in Europe has been banned since January 2004. We describe the first detection of HFC-365mfc in the atmosphere and report on a 2 year long record at the high Alpine station of Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) and the Atlantic coast station of Mace Head (Ireland). The measurements at Jungfraujoch are used to estimate the central European emissions of HFC-365mfc, HCFC-141b, and CFC-11. For HFC-365mfc, we estimate the central European emissions (Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) in 2003 and 2004 as 400-500 tonnes year(-1). These emissions are about one-third lower on a per capita basis than what we estimate from the Mace Head measurements for the total of Europe. The estimated emissions of HCFC-141b for central Europe are higher (i.e., 7.2-3.5 ktonnes year(-1)) with a decreasing trend in the period from 2000 to 2004. Residual emissions of CFC-11 are estimated at 2.4-4.7 ktonnes year(-1) in the same time period. The Po Valley (northern Italy) appears to be a main source region for HFC-365mfc and for the former blowing agents HCFC-141b and CFC-11. In 2004, the emissions of HFC-365mfc arose from a wider region of Europe, which we attribute to an increased penetration of HFC-365mfc into the European market.

Methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3, 1,1,1,-trichloroethane) was used widely as a solvent before it was recognized to be an ozone-depleting substance and its phase-out was introduced under the Montreal Protocol. Subsequently, its atmospheric concentration has declined steadily and recent European methyl chloroform consumption and emissions were estimated to be less than 0.1 gigagrams per year. However, data from a short-term tropospheric measurement campaign (EXPORT) indicated that European methyl chloroform emissions could have been over 20 gigagrams in 2000 (ref. 6), almost doubling previously estimated global emissions. Such enhanced emissions would significantly affect results from the CH3CC13 method of deriving global abundances of hydroxyl radicals (OH) (refs 7-12)-the dominant reactive atmospheric chemical for removing trace gases related to air pollution, ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. Here we use long-term, high-frequency data from Mace Head, Ireland and Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, to infer European methyl chloroform emissions. We find that European emission estimates declined from about 60 gigagrams per year in the mid-1990s to 0.3-1.4 and 1.9-3.4 gigagrams per year in 2000-03, based on Mace Head and Jungfraujoch data, respectively. Our European methyl chloroform emission estimates are therefore higher than calculated from consumption data, but are considerably lower than those derived from the EXPORT campaign in 2000 (ref. 6).

Objective: To develop and validate a logistic regression model to predict need for admission and length of hospital stay in children presenting to the Emergency Department with bronchiolitis., Setting: Two children's hospitals in Dublin, Ireland., Methods: We reviewed 118 episodes of bronchiolitis in 99 children admitted from the Emergency Department. Those discharged within 24 h by a consultant/attending paediatrician were retrospectively categorized as suitable for discharge. We then validated the model using a cohort of 182 affected infants from another paediatric Emergency Department in a bronchiolitis season 2 years later. In the validation phase actual admission, failed discharge, and age less than 2 months defined the need for admission., Results: The model predicted admission with 91% sensitivity and 83% specificity in the validation cohort. Age [odds ratio (OR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.97], dehydration (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.34-4.82), increased work of breathing (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.29-8.92) and initial heart rate above the 97th centile (OR 3.78, 95% CI 1.05-13.57) predicted the need for admission and a longer hospital stay., Conclusion: We derived and validated a severity of illness model for bronchiolitis. This can be used for outcome prediction in decision support tools or severity of illness stratification in research/audit.

Background: Artificial neural networks apply complex non-linear functions to pattern recognition problems. An ensemble is a 'committee' of neural networks that usually outperforms single neural networks. Bronchiolitis is a common manifestation of viral lower respiratory tract infection in infants and toddlers., Objective: To train artificial neural network ensembles to predict the disposition and length of stay in children presenting to the Emergency Department with bronchiolitis., Methods: A specifically constructed database of 119 episodes of bronchiolitis was used to train, validate, and test a neural network ensemble. We used EasyNN 7.0 on a 200 Mhz pentium PC with a maths co-processor. The ensemble of neural networks constructed was subjected to fivefold validation. Comparison with actual and predicted dispositions was measured using the kappa statistic for disposition and the Kaplan-Meier estimations and log rank test for predictions of length of stay., Results: The neural network ensembles correctly predicted disposition in 81% (range 75-90%) of test cases. When compared with actual disposition the neural network performed similarly to a logistic regression model and significantly better than various 'dumb machine' strategies with which we compared it. The prediction of length of stay was poorer, 65% (range 60-80%), but the difference between observed and predicted lengths of stay were not significantly different., Conclusion: Artificial neural network ensembles can predict disposition for infants and toddlers with bronchiolitis; however, the prediction of length of hospital stay is not as good.

This study presents the quantification of the emissions of the refrigerants CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HCFC-22 (CHClF2), and HFC-134a (CF3CH2F) from road traffic in Switzerland. These gases are used as refrigerants in car air conditioning systems (A/C-systems) and in cool aggregates for refrigeration transport. All three substances act as greenhouse gases, and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 are in addition stratospheric ozone depleting chemicals. The measurements have been performed in a highway tunnel in the area of Zürich and cover a large number of individual vehicles, which are thought to be representative of a typical European car fleet. The average emission rates per vehicle were found to be 1.0 +/- 0.2 mg h(-1) for CFC-12, 0.6 +/- 0.4 mg h(-1) for HCFC-22, and 6.2 +/- 0.8 mg h(-1) for HFC-134a. These emission factors have been measured for driving vehicles and represent an average emission rate for all types of vehicles regardless of whether they are equipped with an A/C-unit or not. For an average vehicle equipped with an A/C-unit, these results translate into losses of about 14 mg h(-1) for HFC-134a and 20-30 mg h(-1) for CFC-12, when the estimated distribution of HFC-134a-A/C-units (45%) and CFC-12-A/C-units (3-5%) in the car fleet were taken into account. The emissions of CFC-12 and HFC-134a were mainly attributed to the losses from A/C-systems of passenger cars, whereas the emissions of HCFC-22 originate from losses of refrigeration systems of transport trucks. The observed emissions are discussed in respect to their environmental impact and compared to the overall greenhouse gas emissions of road traffic.