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QC 20191205

In this paper, the credit scoring problem is studied by incorporating network information, where the advantages of such incorporation are investigated in two scenarios. Firstly, a Bayesian optimal filter is proposed to provide a prediction for lenders assuming that published credit scores are estimated merely from structured individual data. Such prediction is used as a monitoring indicator for the risk warning in lenders' future financial decisions. Secondly, we further propose a recursive Bayes estimator to improve the accuracy of credit scoring estimation by incorporating the dynamic interaction topology of clients as well. It is shown that under the proposed evolution framework, the designed estimator has a higher precision than any efficient estimator, and the mean square errors are strictly smaller than the Cram\'er--Rao lower bound for clients within a certain range of scores. Finally, simulation results for a specific case illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods., QC 20190529

We formulate and solve a finite horizon full balance sheet two-modes optimal switching problem related to trade-off strategies between expected profit and cost yields. The optimal switching problem is formulated in terms of a system of Snell envelopes for the profit and cost yields which act as obstacles to each other. We prove existence of a continuous minimal solution of this system using an approximation scheme and fully characterize the optimal switching strategy., QS 2011 QS 20120326

In this paper, the credit scoring problem is studied by incorporating network information, where the advantages of such incorporation are investigated in two scenarios. Firstly, a Bayesian optimal filter is proposed to provide a prediction for lenders assuming that published credit scores are estimated merely from structured individual data. Such prediction is used as a monitoring indicator for the risk warning in lenders' future financial decisions. Secondly, we further propose a recursive Bayes estimator to improve the accuracy of credit scoring estimation by incorporating the dynamic interaction topology of clients as well. It is shown that under the proposed evolution framework, the designed estimator has a higher precision than any efficient estimator, and the mean square errors are strictly smaller than the Cram\'er--Rao lower bound for clients within a certain range of scores. Finally, simulation results for a specific case illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods., QC 20190529

In this paper a duality relation between the Mañé potential and Mather's action functional is derived in the context of convex and state-dependent Hamiltonians. The duality relation is used to obtain min-max representations of viscosity solutions of first order Hamilton-Jacobi equations. These min-max representations naturally suggest classes of subsolutions of Hamilton-Jacobi equations that arise in the theory of large deviations. The subsolutions, in turn, are good candidates for designing efficient rare-event simulation algorithms., QS 2014

This paper considers importance sampling for estimation of rare-event probabilities in a Markovian intensity model for credit risk. The main contribution is the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms using subsolutions of a certain Hamilton-Jacobi equation. For certain instances of the credit risk model the proposed algorithm is proved to be asymptotically optimal. The computational gain compared to standard Monte Carlo is illustrated by numerical experiments., QC 20170125

Point and interval estimation of future disability inception and recovery rates are predominantly carried out by combining generalized linear models (GLM) with time series forecasting techniques into a two-step method involving parameter estimation from historical data and subsequent calibration of a time series model. This approach may in fact lead to both conceptual and numerical problems since any time trend components of the model are incoherently treated as both model parameters and realizations of a stochastic process. We suggest that this general two-step approach can be improved in the following way: First, we assume a stochastic process form for the time trend component. The corresponding transition densities are then incorporated into the likelihood, and the model parameters are estimated using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. We illustrate the modelling procedure by fitting the model to Swedish disability claims data., QS 2015

QS 2015

QS 2015

We study the estimation problem for linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models with Gaussian excitation of an unknown covariance. We provide non asymptotic lower bounds for the expected estimation error and the mean square estimation risk of the least square estimator, and the minimax mean square estimation risk. These bounds are sharp with explicit constants when the matrix of the dynamics has no eigenvalues on the unit circle and are rate-optimal when they do. Our results extend and improve existing lower bounds to lower bounds in expectation of the mean square estimation risk and to systems with a general noise covariance. Instrumental to our derivation are new concentration results for rescaled sample covariances and deviation results for the corresponding multiplication processes of the covariates, a differential geometric construction of a prior on the unit operator ball of small Fisher information, and an extension of the Cramér-Rao and van Treesinequalities to matrix-valued estimators., QC 20210921

We study the estimation problem for linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models with Gaussian excitation of an unknown covariance. We provide non asymptotic lower bounds for the expected estimation error and the mean square estimation risk of the least square estimator, and the minimax mean square estimation risk. These bounds are sharp with explicit constants when the matrix of the dynamics has no eigenvalues on the unit circle and are rate-optimal when they do. Our results extend and improve existing lower bounds to lower bounds in expectation of the mean square estimation risk and to systems with a general noise covariance. Instrumental to our derivation are new concentration results for rescaled sample covariances and deviation results for the corresponding multiplication processes of the covariates, a differential geometric construction of a prior on the unit operator ball of small Fisher information, and an extension of the Cramér-Rao and van Treesinequalities to matrix-valued estimators., QC 20210921

In this paper, the credit scoring problem is studied by incorporating network information, where the advantages of such incorporation are investigated in two scenarios. Firstly, a Bayesian optimal filter is proposed to provide a prediction for lenders assuming that published credit scores are estimated merely from structured individual data. Such prediction is used as a monitoring indicator for the risk warning in lenders' future financial decisions. Secondly, we further propose a recursive Bayes estimator to improve the accuracy of credit scoring estimation by incorporating the dynamic interaction topology of clients as well. It is shown that under the proposed evolution framework, the designed estimator has a higher precision than any efficient estimator, and the mean square errors are strictly smaller than the Cram\'er--Rao lower bound for clients within a certain range of scores. Finally, simulation results for a specific case illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods., QC 20190529

In this paper, the credit scoring problem is studied by incorporating network information, where the advantages of such incorporation are investigated in two scenarios. Firstly, a Bayesian optimal filter is proposed to provide a prediction for lenders assuming that published credit scores are estimated merely from structured individual data. Such prediction is used as a monitoring indicator for the risk warning in lenders' future financial decisions. Secondly, we further propose a recursive Bayes estimator to improve the accuracy of credit scoring estimation by incorporating the dynamic interaction topology of clients as well. It is shown that under the proposed evolution framework, the designed estimator has a higher precision than any efficient estimator, and the mean square errors are strictly smaller than the Cram\'er--Rao lower bound for clients within a certain range of scores. Finally, simulation results for a specific case illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods., QC 20190529

In this paper, the credit scoring problem is studied by incorporating network information, where the advantages of such incorporation are investigated in two scenarios. Firstly, a Bayesian optimal filter is proposed to provide a prediction for lenders assuming that published credit scores are estimated merely from structured individual data. Such prediction is used as a monitoring indicator for the risk warning in lenders' future financial decisions. Secondly, we further propose a recursive Bayes estimator to improve the accuracy of credit scoring estimation by incorporating the dynamic interaction topology of clients as well. It is shown that under the proposed evolution framework, the designed estimator has a higher precision than any efficient estimator, and the mean square errors are strictly smaller than the Cram\'er--Rao lower bound for clients within a certain range of scores. Finally, simulation results for a specific case illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methods., QC 20190529

We study the estimation problem for linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models with Gaussian excitation of an unknown covariance. We provide non asymptotic lower bounds for the expected estimation error and the mean square estimation risk of the least square estimator, and the minimax mean square estimation risk. These bounds are sharp with explicit constants when the matrix of the dynamics has no eigenvalues on the unit circle and are rate-optimal when they do. Our results extend and improve existing lower bounds to lower bounds in expectation of the mean square estimation risk and to systems with a general noise covariance. Instrumental to our derivation are new concentration results for rescaled sample covariances and deviation results for the corresponding multiplication processes of the covariates, a differential geometric construction of a prior on the unit operator ball of small Fisher information, and an extension of the Cramér-Rao and van Treesinequalities to matrix-valued estimators., QC 20210921

We study the estimation problem for linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models with Gaussian excitation of an unknown covariance. We provide non asymptotic lower bounds for the expected estimation error and the mean square estimation risk of the least square estimator, and the minimax mean square estimation risk. These bounds are sharp with explicit constants when the matrix of the dynamics has no eigenvalues on the unit circle and are rate-optimal when they do. Our results extend and improve existing lower bounds to lower bounds in expectation of the mean square estimation risk and to systems with a general noise covariance. Instrumental to our derivation are new concentration results for rescaled sample covariances and deviation results for the corresponding multiplication processes of the covariates, a differential geometric construction of a prior on the unit operator ball of small Fisher information, and an extension of the Cramér-Rao and van Treesinequalities to matrix-valued estimators., QC 20210921

We study the estimation problem for linear time-invariant (LTI) state-space models with Gaussian excitation of an unknown covariance. We provide non asymptotic lower bounds for the expected estimation error and the mean square estimation risk of the least square estimator, and the minimax mean square estimation risk. These bounds are sharp with explicit constants when the matrix of the dynamics has no eigenvalues on the unit circle and are rate-optimal when they do. Our results extend and improve existing lower bounds to lower bounds in expectation of the mean square estimation risk and to systems with a general noise covariance. Instrumental to our derivation are new concentration results for rescaled sample covariances and deviation results for the corresponding multiplication processes of the covariates, a differential geometric construction of a prior on the unit operator ball of small Fisher information, and an extension of the Cramér-Rao and van Treesinequalities to matrix-valued estimators., QC 20210921