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The impact of climate change on insect pests is an emerging topic in forestry and forest science. This study investigates the relationships between two broadleaved forest pests – spongy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) and brown-tail moth (Euproctis chrysorrhoea L.) – and oaks (Quercus sp.) as their hosts. Oak forests cover almost one-third of the total forest area of Serbia and are ecologicallyvery valuable, but at the same time vulnerable, as being affected in adverse ways by several primary pests and pathogens. Since 1862, Serbia experienced several extremely large outbreaks of spongy moth with more than a hundred thousand hectares completely defoliated each time, while brown-tail moth occurred periodically with a much lower spatial extent. The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of UV radiation (UVR) and air temperature on spongy moth and brown-tail moth in Serbian forests. We used simulations of the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-PrincetonOcean Model) for the A1B scenario for the period 2001-2030 as main input and different statistical methods to explore relationships between observations of pest spread and climate change impacts. Our results suggest: (i) increasing the areas affected by spongy moth due to its sensitivity on UVR in May, and (ii) altitudinal spreading of brown-tail moth population up to 800 – 1000 m. This research indicates that in situ forest observations in Serbia are not only affected by climate change, but also by the combined effect of climate on forest pests. For further research, we recommend exploring other forest stressors or dieback phenomena in European forests by applying the same or similar regional climate model dataset.

Beryllium-7 is a natural radionuclide used as a tracer of the stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. Its abundance in the surface air is expected to change as the temperatures in the atmosphere increase. To investigate the temporal trends of the beryllium-7 activity concentrations and temperature, we apply spectral analysis to time series from three sampling sites: Belgrade in Serbia, and Ljubljana and Krško in Slovenia. The sites lie close to the 45 ºN parallel, with Krško approximately 400 km and Ljubljana around 500 km west of Belgrade. Between January 1991 and December 2019, the air filter samples were collected using air samplers; a monthly composite sample was formed and analysed by gamma spectrometry. We use monthly mean temperature records from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset, the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia for Belgrade, and the Slovenian Environment Agency for the sites in Slovenia. In the spectral analysis decomposition, we look into a term called trend that represents the overall growth (increase or decrease) in the data records. The trend is calculated using a linear fit. All three sites show 1) positive temperature trends, however statistically insignificant (at the 95 % confidence level), and 2) statistically significant beryllium-7 activity concentration trends of 2.26 %/year, 1.13 %/year, and 0.50 %/year in Belgrade, Ljubljana, and Krško, respectively. The results confirm our initial hypothesis–over the 28 investigated years, the beryllium-7 activity concentrations increase in the surface air. On the other hand, the non-significant temperature rise in our records suggests that within our method, the temporal resolution of one month is insufficient for obtaining a statistically significant temperature trend.

Climate change, through changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, has influenced agricultural production and food security over the past several decades. In order to assess climate and weather-related risks to fruit and grape production in Serbia, changes in bioclimatic indices and frequency of the occurrence of unfavourable weather events are spatially analysed for the past two decades (1998–2017) and the standard climatological period 1961–1990. Between the two periods, the Winkler and Huglin indices changed into a warmer category in most of the viticultural regions of Serbia. The average change shift was about 200 m towards higher elevations. Regarding the frequency of spring frost, high summer temperatures and water deficit, the most vulnerable regions in terms of fruit and grape production are found alongside large rivers (Danube, Sava, Great and South Morava), as well as in the northern part of the country. Regions below 300 m are under increased risk of high summer temperatures, as the number and duration of occurrences increased significantly over the studied periods. The high-resolution spatial analysis presented here gives an assessment of the climate change influence on the fruit and grapes production. The presented approach may be used in regional impact assessments and national planning of adaptation measures, and it may help increase resilience of agricultural production to climate change.

This study investigates the beryllium-7, lead-210 and caesium-137 activity concentrations in aerosol filter samples collected monthly along the 45°N zonal belt over 1991–2019. Sampling was performed in three locations, one in Serbia and two in Slovenia, and the Slovenian data records are published here for the first time. The activity concentrations were determined by standard gamma spectrometry. The obtained results are in general agreement with the literature data for Europe. The data sets at different sites display similarities in measurement ranges, overall means and seasonal cycles. Still, statistical tests show significant differences among the radionuclides’ concentrations across the locations. To investigate underlying processes that affect radioactivity in the surface air in this region, multivariate statistical concepts are applied to the radionuclides’ concentrations and local meteorological parameters. Discriminant analysis shows that all three sites are well separated from each other. Principal component analysis gives common pattern of interconnection between the observables: temperature has a stronger influence on the behaviour of beryllium-7 and lead-210 than that of caesium-137, but a negative correlation of the radionuclides’ concentrations with precipitation seems the strongest for caesium-137. Principal component analysis also shows local differences in the degree of relationship between the meteorological parameters and activity concentrations of the investigated radionuclides. This is an important finding for future atmospheric transport studies.

In this paper we assessed changes in scaling properties of the river Danube level and flow data, associated with building of Djerdap/Iron Gates hydrological power plants positioned on the border of Romania and Serbia. We used detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), wavelet transform spectral analysis (WTS) and wavelet modulus maxima method (WTMM) to investigate time series of measurements from hydrological stations in the vicinity of dams and in the area of up to 480 km upstream from dams, and time series of simulated NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Global Reanalysis precipitation data for the Djerdap/Iron Gates region. By comparing river dynamics during the periods before and after construction of dams, we were able to register changes in scaling that are different for recordings from upstream and from downstream (from dams) areas. We found that damming caused appearance of human-made or enhancement of natural cycles in the small time scales region, which largely influenced the change in temporal scaling in downstream recording stations. We additionally found disappearance or decline in the amplitude of large-time-scale cycles as a result of damming, which changed the dynamics of upstream data. The most prominent finding of our paper is a demonstration of a complete or partial loss of annual cycles in the upstream stations' data that stems from the operation of the artificial water reservoir and extends as far as 220 km from dams. We discussed probable sources of such found changes in scaling, aiming to provide explanations that could be of use in future environmental assessments.

Zbog svoje radioaktivne i toksične prirode, lokacije i načina nastajanja, izotop 7Be ima višedecenijsku pažnju u oblasti radioekologije i meteorologije, pre svega kao trasera u praćenju kretanja polutanata i vazdušnih masa. Shodno tome, bilo bi poželjno ustanoviti model vremenske distribucije ovog izotopa, koji bi omogućio predikciju njegove koncentracije. Kao doprinos poboljšanju odabira parametara za simulacione modele, cilj ovog istraživanja je da se ispita uticaj aktivnosti Sunca i pojedinih meteoroloških parametara na koncentraciju 7Be u prizemnom sloju atmosfere. Za potrebe ovog istraživanja, korišćeni su rezultati gamaspekrtometrijskog odreĎivanja koncentracije aktivnosti 7Be u dva medijuma (vazduh – uzorci aerosola i ukupni depozit) tokom perioda 1995–2017, sprovedenih u Laboratoriji za zaštitu od zračenja i zaštitu životne sredine, Instituta za nuklearne nauke “Vinča”. Metodama Furijeove transformacije i linearne regresije, primenjenim u ovoj disertaciji, po prvi put je uočena mogućnost uticaja smera Sunčevog magnetnog polja na koncentraciju 7Be u uzorcima vazduha. Pokazalo se da bi uključivanje perioda promene od 22 godine moglo dovesti do poboljšanja kvaliteta njene simulacije., Due to the 7Be isotope is radioactive and toxic nature, as well as its location and way of its production, it has decades of attention in the field of radiochemistry and meteorology, primarily as a tracker in monitoring the movement of pollutants and air masses. Accordingly, it would be desirable to establish a time distribution model for this isotope, which would allow a prediction of its concentration. As a contribution to improving the selection of parameters for simulation models, the aim of this study is to examine the influence of solar activity and individual meteorological parameters on the concentration of 7Be in the ground level atmosphere. For the purposes of this research, the results of gamaspekrtometric determination of the activity concentration of 7Be in two media (air - aerosols and total deposit) were used. They carried out at the Laboratory for Radiation Protection and Environmental Protection, Institute for Nuclear Sciences "Vinča" and cover the period during 1995-2017. The methods of the Fourier transform and linear regression, applied in this dissertation, for the first time have seen the possibility of influencing the direction of the Solar magnetic field to the concentration of 7Be in air samples, and it has been shown that the inclusion of a period of change of 22 years can lead to a decline in the quality of its simulation.

U radu je analiziran odgovor lokalnih populacija tekunice u Vojvodini na promene uslova klime i korišćenja zemljišta. Odgovori populacija tekunice (tipičnog predstavnika otvorenih staništa i idealnog model organizma) na pomenute promene omogućiće razmatranje kako mere na regionalnom nivou: i) mogu unaprediti zaštitu i očuvanje tekunice ii) ublažiti efekti promene klime i korišćenja zemljišta iii) mogu usaglasiti razvoj poljoprivrede sa očuvanjem biodiverziteta travnatih ekosistema. Kako bi se odgovorilo na pitanja i postavljene hipoteze u radu sprovedeno je terensko istraživanje, korišćen standardni prostorni pristup i ekološko modelovanje. Sve primenjene tehnike su komplementarne jedna drugoj u dobijanju odgovora na postavljena pitanja gde rezultati jedne analize predstavljaju ulazne podatke za drugu analizu. U tezi su korišćeni podaci dobijeni na osnovu terenskog mapiranja lokalnih populacija i podaci iz eksperimenta modelovanja kao i serija podataka dobijena cenzusom kolonija tekunica i terenskim uzorkovanjem zemljišta i vegetacije. Rasprostranjenje populacija oblikuju klimatski uslovi ali pored abiotičkih faktora uslovljavaju ih i biotički faktori i kretanje jedinki. Promena klime direktno utiče na distribuciju optimalnih uslova. Istraženo je u kojoj meri će doći do promene u distribuciji optimalnih uslova sredine za tekunicu. Potencijalna promena analizirana je uzimajući u obzir klimatski scenario Max Plank Instituta sa tri rcp projekcije i tri generisana prostorna scenarijadistribucije otvorenih travnatih staništa u Vojvodini. Sagledavanje mogućih efekata promene sredinskih uslova dalo je mogućnost da se ukaže na zone koja će biti ključne za očuvanje populacija tekunica i travnatih ekosistema u Vojvodini. Sledeće, s obzirom da disperzija jedinki, dostupnost resursa kao i delovanje lokaln, The study analyzes the European ground squirrel (EGS) population response to land use and climate change in Vojvodina. The response of the EGS population (typical species of open grassland habitats and the ideal model organism) to changes in environmental conditions in this region will enable consideration of following measures at the local and landscape level: i) effective protection and conservation of the EGS and habitat it relay on; ii) climate change and land use mitigation and adaptation iii) how can we harmonize the development of agriculture and preserve the biodiversity of grassland ecosystem in agricultural settings. In order to answer the questions of this study, the field research was conducted, standard spatial approach and ecological modeling were employed. All applied techniques are complementary to one another in obtaining responses to the questions asked. The results of one analysis represent the input data for the following one. The data for the study were obtained: from EGS local populations’ field mapping, from the modeling experiment, the census campaigned and the field sampling of soil and vegetation. Distribution of populations, which in addition to abiotic factors are conditioned by biotic factors and movement of individuals were evaluated in the context of climate change. Climate change directly affects the distribution of optimalconditions. The potential changes in distribution of optimal environmental conditions for EGS were assessed by considering changes in abiotic factors and the availability of grasslands. The climate scenario obtained using a dynamic vegetation map with three rcp projections and three spatial scenarios for the distribution of open grasslands were used. The extrapolation of a suitable area obtained by presence only model Maxent gives the possibility to point to the zones that will be crucial f

The activity concentrations of beryllium-7, a natural radiotracer that is considered as a tracer of the strato-spheric-tropospheric exchange, shows a distinct behaviour in Northern Europe compared to the central and southern parts of the continent. In this study, we use the measurements collected at four sampling stations in Scandinavia (Ivalo, Umea, Kista, Risoe) between 2001 and 2010 and investigate their trends, periodicities and residuals with the aim to further understand the common features in the beryllium-7 data records in northern sampling sites. The beryllium-7 activity concentrations exhibit statistically significant positive trends that range from an average value of 1.50%/year to an average value of 2.96%/year. We detect a one-year periodicity in all the sites, and in the southernmost site, Risoe in Denmark, additional higher-frequency harmonics. In the residual time series, we find outliers that represent occurrences of extremely high beryllium-7 activity concentration. Cross-correlations of the beryllium-7 residuals across the four sites decrease with increasing distance; similarly, as indicated by local Hurst exponents the records exhibit long-range correlations that weaken towards the end of the investigated period. To investigate the causes of the detected trends, we also calculate correlations between beryllium-7 and factors related to its production, transport and removal from the atmosphere: in particular, cross-correlations of the beryllium-7 residuals with residuals in sunspot number, local temperature, atmospheric pressure and precipitation, as well as Arctic Oscillation index and North Atlantic Oscillation index. Most of the obtained correlations, however, are not statistically significant, highlighting the need to analyse a longer time period in order to evaluate the impact of different factors on the airborne beryllium-7 activity concentration.

Vreme i klima neke oblasti odraz su na prvom mestu osobenosti opšte cirkulacije atmosfere. Promene u atmosferskoj cirkulaciji su presudne zato što su one često praćene promenama u površinskim meteorološkim promenljivama. Da bi se lakše proučavala veza između atmosferske cirkulacije i lokalnih vremenskih uslova, vrši se klasifikacija sinoptičkih sistema, tj. određuju se tipovi cirkulacije. Zato je glavni cilj ove disertacije da se na objektivan način identifikuju i opišu tipovi cirkulacije koji karakterišu vremenska stanja iznad Srbije. Proučavanje tipova cirkulacije je aktuelna tema, koja se stalno unapređuje i dopunjuje. Metod Jekinson-a i Collison-a je objektivna verzija Lamb-ove klasifikacije atmosferske cirkulacije, gde je dnevna cirkulacija okarakterisana upotrebom indeksa povezanih sa pravcem, jačinom i vrtložnošću strujanja. Ovaj metod je bio primenjen iznad Srbije za period od 1961. do 2010. Dobijeno je dvadesetšest cirkulacionih tipova: osam usmerenih tipova po pravcu − severni (N), severoistočni (NE), istočni (E), jugoistočni (SE), južni (S), jugozapadni (SW), zapadni (W) i severozapadni (NW), zatim dva vrtložna tipa zasnovana na jačini vrtložnosti − ciklonalni (C) i anticiklonalni (A) i šesnaest hibridnih tipova (osam ciklonalnih i osam anticiklonalnih za svaki pravac). Sinoptičke karakteristike dobijenih tipova su razmatrane za sve četiri sezone. Svaki cirkulacioni tip ima poseban sinoptički obrazac koji daje očekivan tip i smer strujanja iznad posmatrane oblasti. Analizirani su i trendovi i relativne učestalosti cirkulacionih tipova. Mana metoda Jekinson–a i Collison–a je što nema podataka na višim nivoima. Ovaj nedostatak je rešen u disertaciji tako što su analizirane anomalije geopotencijalne visine na 500 hPa. Utvrđeno je da je anticiklonalni (A) cirkulacioni tip najučestaliji u jesen (23,87%), zatim zimi (18,93%) i u leto (18,70%). Sledi severoistočni tip (NE) sa čestinom od 16,65% za vreme letnje sezone. A tip ima pozitivan trend za zimu i proleće, One of the primary dynamic factors shaping weather and climate of an area is the atmospheric circulation. Regional or local changes in meteorological parameters in the mid-latitudes are mainly controlled by the atmospheric circulation. In order to study relationships between atmospheric circulation and local weather conditions, classification of the synoptic systems is conducted, i.e., circulation weather types (WTs) are determined. Therefore, the main goal of this thesis is to objectively determine and explain the circulation weather types over Serbia. Studying of circulation types is a current topic that is constantly improved and updated. The method of Jenkinson and Collison is an objective version of the Lamb’s classification of atmospheric circulation, in which daily circulation is characterized using a set of indices associated with the direction, strength and vorticity of the flow. This method has been applied to the atmosphere over Serbia for the time period 1961- 2010, resulting in 26 WTs: eight pure directional types - northerly (N), northeasterly (NE), easterly (E), southeasterly (SE), southerly (S), southwesterly (SW), westerly (W) and northwesterly (NW), two pure types based on the severity of the vorticity - cyclonic (C) and anticyclonic (A), and sixteen hybrid types (eight cyclonic and eight anticyclonic for each direction). Synoptic characteristics of circulation types against all four seasonal times are considered. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. Trends and relative frequencies of the circulation types are analyzed. A shortcoming of this method is the lack of data on other higher levels. In thesis, this deficiency has been solved by the vertical structure of the atmosphere that was employed to analyze the anomalies of the geopotential height at the 500 hPa. It has been found that the anticyclonic type (A), is the most common type of ci

Seasonal and spatial patterns of extremely high beryllium-7 surface concentration recorded over the 2001-2010 period across Europe are investigated. The beryllium-7 measurements for 14 sites are taken from the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring Database. The maxima and minima in the annual cycle of the beryllium-7 surface concentration occur later in the year as the latitude of the measurement site decreases. Extremely high beryllium-7 surface concentrations are defined here as values greater than the 95th percentile in each measurement site. Most of the extremes occur over the March-August period. At least 10 % of the total number of extremes appear during autumn and winter, with an exception of Vienna, where all the extremes took place during spring and summer. The regional spread of extremes common to pairs of measurement sites points to an existence of three distinct regions in Europe: north of 55°N, between 45°N and 55°N, and south of 45°N. Although the beryllium-7 concentration records are significantly correlated across all the investigated sites, the strongest correlations are found within the identified regions., Sezonska i prostorna raspodela ekstremno visokih specifičnih aktivnosti berilijuma-7 u prizemnom sloju atmosfere analizirane su u ovom radu. Merenja tokom 2001-2010. godine na 14 evropskih stanica preuzeta su iz REMdb-baze podataka Monitoring radioaktivnosti u životnoj sredini. Prvo su razmotreni godišnji ciklusi specifične aktivnosti berilijuma-7 koji pokazuju da se godišnje maksimalne i minimalne srednje mesečne vrednosti pomeraju ka kasnijim mesecima kako se smanjuje geografska širina merne stanice. Za ekstremno visoke vrednosti specifične aktivnosti berilijuma-7 uzete su vrednosti veće od 95-og percentila, koji je izračunat za svaku stanicu posebno. Najveći broj ovih ekstrema događa se od marta do avgusta, a najmanje 10 % od ukupnog broja ekstrema tokom jeseni i zime. Izuzetak je merna stanica Beč na kojoj su se svi ekstremi dogodili tokom proleća i leta. Rasprostranjenost ekstrema koji su zajednički za parove mernih mesta, ukazuje da postoje tri različita regiona u Evropi: severno od 55°N, između 45°N i 55°N, i južno od 45°N. Iako su merenja specifične aktivnosti berilijuma-7 značajno korelisana za sve analizirane stanice, najveći koeficijenti korelacije dobijeni su u okviru ovih regiona.

The dynamics of the beryllium-7 specific activity in surface air over 1987-2011 is analyzed using wavelet transform (WT) analysis and time -dependent detrended moving average (tdDMA) method, WT analysis gives four periodicities in the beryllium-7 specific activity: one month, three months, one year, and three years. These intervals are further used in tdDMA to calculate local autocorrelation exponents for precipitation, tropopause height and teleconnection indices. Our results show that these parameters share common periods with the beryllium-7 surface concentration. tdDMA method indicates that on the characteristic intervals of one year and shorter, the beryllium-7 specific activity is strongly autocorrelated. On the three-year interval, the beryllium-7 specific activity shows periods of anticorrelat ion, implying slow changes in its dynamics that become evident only over a prolonged period of time. A comparison of the Hurst exponents of all the variables on the one- and three-year intervals suggest some similarities in their dynamics. Overall, a good agreement in the behavior of the teleconnection indices and specific activity of beryllium-7 in surface air is noted.

Intense direct and indirect human pressure has been imposed on grasslands throughout their range. Mostly due to the constant need for more food production or due to changes in environmental conditions, grasslands as habitats are expected to become highly endangered. The aim of this study was to estimate the grasslands’ ecological response to future climate and environmental changes. The study took place in three ecologically different grassland communities in three protected natural areas of Serbia (Southeastern Europe), following the same methodology. The study sites were: 1) Peštersko polje Special Nature Reserve (SNR), 2) Deliblato sands SNR (its southern part: Labudovo okno) and 3) Zasavica SNR. Climate change was simulated for mean temperatures and precipitations using the Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model (EBU-POM) climate model, for the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario covering the 1951–2100 period and insolation and volumetric soil moisture content for the 1979–2100 period. Grassland vegetation was analysed at all three sites. One representative plant community per site was selected for further analysis and simulation of ecological changes. One plot was positioned inside each of the above-mentioned communities, all vascular plant species inside the plot were recorded, and soil samples were taken. Ecological Optima (EO) for moisture and temperature were calculated from modified Ellenberg’s plant indicator values of recorded species. The plants’ response to climate and environmental changes was simulated using the VSD+ model for the 2010–2100 period. The data obtained from the model were further analysed with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Overall results show that the temperature rise, along with the irregular precipitation at all three sites, will lead to a drop of the relative abundance of many native species in the period between 2040 and 2060. The low obtained Habitat Suitability Index for the fu, In Serbien sind vor allem natürliche Grasländer stark gefährdet. Bislang liegen nur sehr wenige Studien zur Auswirkung von Klimaveränderungen auf Grasländer in Serbien vor (z. B. BELOICA et al. 2015). Zudem wurde die Biodiversität des Graslands in Südosteuropa bislang insgesamt kaum untersucht (DENGLER et al. 2014). Das Ziel dieser Studie ist ein Beitrag zur Kenntnis, inwieweit Pflanzengesellschaften auf veränderte Klimabedingungen reagieren. Die Untersuchung wurden in drei Schutzgebieten in Serbien durchgeführt; untersucht wurden drei ökologisch verschiedene Graslandgesellschaften. Die drei Untersuchungsgebiete waren das Peštersko polje-Special Nature Reserve (SNR), das Delibater Sande-SNR (dessen südlicher Teil zum Gebiet Labudovo okno gehört) und das Zasavica-SNR. Zunächst wurde die Graslandvegetation der drei Gebiete analysiert. In jedem Gebiet wurde eine repräsentative Pflanzengesellschaft ausgewählt um die ökologischen Veränderungen zu simulieren. Die ökologischen Optima der Arten hinsichtlich Feuchte und Temperatur wurden auf Grundlage von Zeigerwerten (nach KOJIĆ et al. 1997) berechnet. Die Bodeneigenschaften wurden an den gleichen Orten bestimmt, wo die Aufnahmen erstellt wurden. Die Namen der Pflanzenarten entsprechen der EURO+MED-Datenbank und die Habitattypen EUNIS. Die Veränderungen der mittleren Temperatur und des mittleren Niederschlags nach dem A1B-(IPCC 2014)-Szenario wurden auf Grundlage des Zeitraums 1951–2100 mit Hilfe von EBUPOM-Klimamodellen simuliert. Die Einstrahlung und der volumetrische Bodenwassergehalt wurden auf Grundlage des Zeitraums 1979–2100 simuliert. Die Reaktion der Pflanzen auf die Klima- und Umweltveränderungen wurde mit Hilfe von VSD+ (Version 5.5, 2001, 2015 Alterra, CCE; MOLDIJKSTRA & REINDS 2017) für den Zeitraum 2010–2100 simuliert. Eine kanonische Korrespondenzanalyse der Pflanzengesellschaften für denselben Zeitraum wurde mit Hilfe von Past 3.14 (HAMMER et al. 2001) durchgeführt.

In this doctoral dissertation, the research of the influences of droughts and the process of aridification have been conducted on Deliblato Sands area’s sensitivity, as a Special nature reserve, especially from the aspect of land degradation, the condition of vegetation cover and sustainable management of these ecosystems. Research included two groups: climatological studies (for the period 1980-2010) and the studies of soil. Within climatological studies, the focus was on climate factors most often used in the research of land degradation. This primarily refers to precipitation (P), temperature (T), wind (W) and their extremes, potential evapotranspiration (PET), standardized precipitation index (SPI for 1. 2. 3. 6 and 12 monts ) and aridity indices (AI and BGI). Soil studies (31 pedological profiles) comprised of field and laboratory research that defined morphological, physical and chemical properties. Based on these researches, described and selected soils were grouped into four categories, according to WRB classification: group I – Protic Arenosol (Calcaric), group II – Arenosol (Haplic, Calcaric), group III – Chernozem (Arenic), group IV – Glaysol (Calcaric, Arenic). The results of soil degradation of Deliblato Sands, amongst other, have enabled the marking off of three texture classes which belong to different categories of erodibility: highly erodible soils with 56.17% (sand), medium erodible soils with 41.27% (clay sand) and low erodible soils with 36.62% (sandy clay). Soil sensitivity to the process of wind erosion, in model RWEQ, is defined by the participation of erodible fraction (EF) that contains soil particles <0.84 mm. The erodible fraction depends on physical and chemical soil properties, including the contents of sand, dust and clay, the contents of organic matter and CaCO3 in surface level 0-25 mm. Using the same model, the soil crust factor (SCF) is determined which reflects the changes of abrasive surface resistance, when the surface is modifie

This analysis presents linear correlations of beryllium-7 specific activity in surface air with several variables measured in Helsinki, Finland, over 1987-2011. Measurements of beryllium-7 are linearly correlated with the following 10 variables: tropopause height; mean, minimum and maximum temperature; precipitation; atmospheric pressure; potential vorticity at 300 hPa and 200 hPa; solar zenith angle; and the number of sunspots. A time lag is also introduced into the calculations of Pearsons linear correlation coefficients, i.e. the beryllium-7 specific activity measured on a day is correlated with a value of a given variable measured on some preceding day. In particular, the time lag is allowed to vary between 0 and 7 days for tropopause height, meteorological parameters and potential vorticity, and between 0 and 31 days for solar zenith angle and number of sunspots. In this way, we obtain sets of correlation coefficients for each pair of the analysed variables, in which we look for the maximum correlation coefficient as well as for the time lag on which this value is reached. In addition to investigating all of the available measurements, the time series are further split into seasonal subsets. Weak to moderate maximum correlation coefficients, ranging between 0.29 and 0.44, are found for the beryllium-7 specific activity with the tropopause height, temperatures and atmospheric pressure. These correlations are reached with a time lag of 0-2 days. Seasonal correlation coefficients show that the strongest linear relationships are obtained in summer. Similarly, a moderate correlation (0.48) with the solar zenith angle is reached with a time lag of 0 days, but the seasonal correlation coefficients in this case show a weaker relationship during different seasons. On the other hand, our analysis suggests that the correlations of beryllium-7 with precipitation, potential vorticity and the number of sunspots are not statistically significant.

Air sample monitoring in Serbia, Belgrade started in the 1960s, while Be-7 activity in air and total (dry and wet) deposition has been monitored for the last 22 years by the Environment and Radiation Protection Department of the Institute for Nuclear Sciences, Vinca. Using this data collection, the changes of the Be-7 activity in the air and the total (wet and dry) deposition samples, as well as their correlation with meteorological parameters (temperature, pressure, cloudiness, sunshine duration, precipitation and humidity) that affect Be-7 concentration in the atmosphere, were mathematically described using the Fourier analysis. Fourier analysis confirmed the expected; the frequency with the largest intensity in the harmonic spectra of the Be-7 activity corresponds to a period of 1 year, the same as the largest intensity frequency in Fourier series of meteorological parameters. To analyze the quality of the results produced by the Fourier analysis, we compared the measured values of the parameters with the values calculated according to the Fourier series. Absolute deviations between measured and predicted mean monthly values are in range from 0.02 mBq/m(3) to 0.7 mBq/m(3) for Be-7 activity in air, and 0.01 Bq/m(2) and 0.6 Bq/m(2) for Be-7 activity in deposition samples. Relatively good agreement of measured and predicted results offers the possibility of prediction of the Be-7 activity. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hidrološki ciklus u integrisanom geofizičkom sistemu ima ulogu da simulira procese vezane za kopnene vode i međusobne interakcije komponenti klimatskog sistema koji opisuju kruženje vode u prirodi. Numerički modeli za prognozu vremena i simulaciju klime obuhvataju najveći deo ovih procesa i razvojem računarskih resursa postaju kompleksniji i prerastaju u modele za simulaciju celog geofizičkog sistema. Hidrološki ciklus u operativnim modelima nije zatvoren zbog nedostatka dinamičkog modela koji simulira kopneni oticaj vode. U ovom radu je predstavljen numerički model za simulaciju i prognozu površinskog oticaja koji direktno utiče na stanje podloge, što je donji granični uslov za atmosferske procese i prognozu vremena. Model je razvijen u skladu sa modelom za prognozu vremena poslednje generacije, NMMB, koji ima sposobnost da simulira procese od globalnih do lokalnih razmera. Testiranje numeričke ispravnosti nove komponente hidrološkog ciklusa kvalifikovalo ga je za povezivanje sa atmosferskim modelom. Povezani numerički model sa zatvorenim hidrološkim ciklusom otvara mogućnost za poboljšanje kvaliteta prognoza i klimatskih simulacija i uvodi nove prognostičke produkte koji mogu naći upotrebu u sistemima najava i upozorenja na ekstremne vremenske prilike. Upotreba ovakvog modela u operativnoj prognozi demonstrirana je na primeru simulacije majskih poplava 2014. godine u oblasti zapadnog Balkana. Povezani model je uspešno reprodukovao hidrološki ciklus ove vremenske nepogode, tj. intenzivne padavine, njihovo oticanje po površini i akumulaciju, uključujući njegovu interakciju sa podlogom i atmosferom, sve do porasta signala u rečnom toku, u skladu sa osmatranjim, Hydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system simulates processes related to inland waters and interactions between the climate system components, that describes water cycle in its natural environment. Numerical models for weather forecast and climate simulations include majority of these processes and, following computer resource development, they are more complex and evolve into models of the integrated geophysical system. Hydrological cycle in operational numerical weather prediction models is not complete because dynamical overland water flow component is missing. Here is presented numerical model for simulation and forecast of the surface runoff, which has direct impact on land surface conditions and thereby lower boundary condition for atmospheric processes and weather forecast as well. The model is developed following numerical approach in the last generation weather forecast model, NMMB, which has the ability to simulate processes from global to local scales. Tests for numerical stability of the new hydrological cycle component justified its implementation within the atmospheric model. Coupled numerical model with complete water cycle opens new possibilities for quality increase in weather forecast and climate simulation, and introduces new prognostic products, which can be used in extreme weather warning system. Such model performance in operational forecast is demonstrated in case study of May 2014 flood event over west Balkans. Coupled model successfully simulated hydrological cycle in this extreme weather event with high precipitation, intense water surface runoff and accumulation, including its interaction with land surface and atmosphere, and at the end producing high signal in river discharge as observed.

Dependence of the lead-210 activity concentration in surface air on meteorological variables and teleconnection indices is investigated using multivariate analysis, which gives the Boosted Decision Trees method as the most suitable for variable analysis. A mapped functional behaviour of the lead-210 activity concentration is further obtained, and used to test predictability of lead-210 in surface air. The results show an agreement between the predicted and measured values. The temporal evolution of the measured activities is satisfactorily matched by the prediction. The largest qualitative differences are obtained for winter months.

In this article we considered the extreme temperatures, precipitation and UV-B radiation in Vojvodina region, Serbia. We describe the actual climate conditions for the period 1981-2007 and applied a dynamic downscaling technique using the EBU-POM regional coupled climate model under the SRES-A2 scenario to assess the changes for the period 2021-2100. The results indicate that a warmer and drier climate in the Vojvodina region can be expected at the end of the century. Projection of climate indicates to a strong increase in the mean annual minimum temperatures, and much smaller increase in the mean annual maximum temperatures. The increase of both extreme temperatures is predicted to be the highest in the winter and the lowest in the summer. Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase toward the end of the first half of the 21st century and to decrease for the last 30 years of the 21st century. Precipitation amount will be the highest during the winter and spring. The model simulations show that, by the end of this century, annual mean UV-B dose will recover by 5.2%. Recovery will be faster in the first half of the 21st century and more slowly later on. The UV-B doses recovery is expected to be the highest during the autumn and spring.

Glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) carry out a wide range of functions in cells, such as detoxification of endogenous compounds, removal of reactive oxygen species, and even catalysis of reactions in metabolic pathways beyond detoxification. Based on previous research, GSTM1 and GSTT1 might modify the risk of atherosclerosis. The aim of our study was to analyze the possible association of GSTM1 and GSTT1 gene polymorphisms with the occurrence of carotid plaque (CP); and biochemical parameters of oxidative stress, lipid profile and inflammation, in 346 consecutive patients with advanced atherosclerosis that underwent endarterectomy. A multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method was used to detect the deletions in GSTM1 and GSTT1 genes in the genomic DNA in 346 patients and 330 controls. The adjusted OR for CP presence (adjusted for age, gender, smoking, hypertension, BMI, HDLC, TG) was 0.24, 95 %CI 0.08-0.7, p LT 0.01 for GSTT1 null and 1.13, 95 %CI 0.62-2.07, p = 0.7 for GSTM1 null genotype. We found significantly lower plasma lipoprotein (a) (Lp(a)) levels in GSTT1 null compared to wild-type genotype carriers in patient group (20.68 +/- A 26.02 mg/dl vs. 40.66 +/- A 42.89 mg/dl, mean +/- A SD, p = 0.04). The serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) values were significantly influenced by both GST polymorphisms in patients with CP. Our results, showing the significant reduction of GSTT1 deletions in patients with CP, suggest involvement of GSTs in carotid atherosclerosis. This study shows additional view of the possible role of GSTs in advanced chronic inflammatory disease of vascular system, but the confirmation in a larger studies in different populations are needed.

Activities of beryllium-7 and lead-210 are monitored in ground level air in Belgrade, Serbia. The measuring sites are located at the Institute of Nuclear Sciences Vinča. The activities are determined on HPGe detectors by standard gamma spectrometry. Five teleconnection indices of large scale atmospheric circulation: North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern, Scandinavia Pattern, and Polar/Eurasia Pattern are obtained from the data archive of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. The collected time series consist of monthly values and span more than two decades: beryllium-7 since 1991, lead-210 since 1985, and the teleconnection indices since 1950, thus offering data arrays of sufficient lengths for wavelet spectral analysis. A relation between the radionuclides' activities and the indices is first investigated using Pearson's correlation coefficients. The computed coefficients do not indicate a linear relationship between the variables. However, the wavelet spectral analysis shows a number of common characteristic frequencies in the data arrays. The annual cycle of all the variables is clearly evident. A common time period of two to three years is also found, as well as a higher frequency variability corresponding to five to six months.

Activities of 7Be and 210Pb were monitored in surface air in Belgrade, Serbia, from 2004 to 2012. The measurements were taken from two locations, in an open field of a city suburb and in the central city area. The activities were determined on HPGe detectors by standard gamma spectrometry. The 7Be activity shows a pronounced seasonal pattern, with the maximum in spring-summer and minimum in winter, while the 210Pb activity exhibits two maxima, in autumn and late winter. The mean monthly concentrations measured at both sites are below 9 mBq/m3 and 1.3 mBq/m3 for 7Be and 210Pb, respectively. The obtained correlation of the 7Be activity with the number of sun-spots is not statistically significant. Relations of the radionuclides' activities with climate variables (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, sunshine hours, and atmospheric pressure) are also investigated, but the only significant correlations are found for the 7Be activity with temperature and sunshine hours, and the 210Pb activity with atmospheric pressure. The maximum 7Be and 210Pb activities corresponding to binned total monthly precipitation data imply different modes of the radionuclide scavenging from the atmosphere. During dry periods, accumulation of the radionuclides in the atmosphere leads to their increased activities, but no correlation was found between the activities and the number of consecutive dry days., Aktivnosti 7Be i 210Pb merene su tokom 2004-2012, u prizemnom sloju atmosfere na dve lokacije u Beogradu. Mesečne specifične aktivnosti određene su standardnom metodom spektrometrije gama zračenja na HPGe detektorima. Aktivnosti radionuklida pokazuju sezonski karakter: 7Be ima maksimum tokom proleća i leta, a minimum zimi, dok 210Pb ima dva maksimuma, tokom jeseni i kasne zime. Na obe lokacije, srednje mesečne aktivnosti 7Be su manje od 9 mBq/m3, dok su za 210Pb manje od 1.3 mBq/m3. Između aktivnosti 7Be i broja sunčevih pega nije nađena statistički značajna korelacija. Relacije između aktivnosti ovih radionuklida i klimatskih parametara (količina padavina, temperatura, relativna vlažnost, oblačnost, broj sunčanih sati i atmosferski pritisak) takođe su ispitane, ali su značajne korelacije dobijene samo za aktivnost 7Be sa temperaturom i brojem sunčanih sati, odnosno za aktivnost 210Pb sa atmosferskim pritiskom. Na osnovu veze između maksimalne aktivnosti po intervalima količine padavina, mogu se razlikovati tri režima spiranja radionuklida iz atmosfere. Tokom sušnih perioda, akumulacija radionuklida u atmosferi uzrokuje njihovu povišenu aktivnost, ali korelacija između aktivnosti i broja uzastopnih suvih dana nije dobijena.

Activities of Be-7 and Pb-210 were monitored in surface air in Belgrade, Serbia, from 2004 to 2012. The measurements were taken from two locations, in an open field of a city suburb and in the central city area. The activities were determined on HPGe detectors by standard gamma spectrometry. The Be-7 activity shows a pronounced seasonal pattern, with the maximum in spring-summer and minimum in winter, while the Pb-210 activity exhibits two maxima, in autumn and late winter. The mean monthly concentrations measured at both sites are below 9 mBq/m(3) and 1.3 mBq/m(3) for Be-7 and Pb-210, respectively. The obtained correlation of the Be-7 activity with the number of sun-spots is not statistically significant. Relations of the radionuclides activities with climate variables (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, sunshine hours, and atmospheric pressure) are also investigated, but the only significant correlations are found for the Be-7 activity with temperature and sunshine hours, and the Pb-210 activity with atmospheric pressure. The maximum Be-7 and Pb-210 activities corresponding to binned total monthly precipitation data imply different modes of the radionuclide scavenging from the atmosphere. During dry periods, accumulation of the radionuclides in the atmosphere leads to their increased activities, but no correlation was found between the activities and the number of consecutive dry days.