1. Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050
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Junaid Khan, Blake Angell, Marcel Ausloos, Catherine M. Antony, Elham Ehsani-Chimeh, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kewal Krishan, Mohamed Kamal Mesregah, Arrigo Francesco Giuseppe Cicero, Simona Cătălina Ştefan, Tanuj Kanchan, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Mohamed I Hegazy, Richard James Maude, Salman Rawaf, Viktória Szerencsés, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Martin McKee, Reza Rawassizadeh, Anton C Harle, Neda Milevska Kostova, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Saravanan Muthupandian, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Hassan Abolhassani, Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa, Atta Abbas Naqvi, John Dube, Habib Benzian, Cristiano Piccinelli, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Mohammad Khammarnia, Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís, Tanvir M. Huda, Fakher Rahim, Modhurima Moitra, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Emily Joy Callander, David Laith Rawaf, Saeed Shahabi, Mohsen Bayati, Raffaele Palladino, Shahin Soltani, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Rafael Lozano, Himal Kandel, João Vasco Santos, MA Garcia-Gordillo, Savita Lasrado, Alexey V Breusov, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Mohammad Amin Bahrami, Teroj Abdulrahman Mohamed, Reinhard Busse, Veer Bala Gupta, Ionut Negoi, Xiaochen Dai, Eun-Cheol Park, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Gulrez Shah Azhar, Annie Haakenstad, Asadollah Gholamian, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Ismaeel Yunusa, Hubert Amu, G. K. Mini, Francesco Saverio Violante, Michael Abdelmasseh, Yun Jin Kim, Yousef Moradi, Nataliya Foigt, Afshin Maleki, Pavanchand H Shetty, Mesfin Agachew Woldekidan, Ramesh Holla, Mina Anjomshoa, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Azeem Majeed, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Avirup Guha, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Alessandro Arrigo, Neda Kianipour, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Mosiur Rahman, Tomas Y Ferede, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Alaa Makki, Joseph L Dieleman, Shuhei Nomura, Kanwar Hamza Shuja, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Souranshu Chatterjee, Yonas Akalu, Hanadi Al Hamad, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Hayley N Stutzman, Getinet Ayano, Atte Meretoja, Fahad Alanezi, Aravind Thavamani, Sonu Bhaskar, Claudiu Herteliu, Andreea Mirica, Masood Ali Shaikh, Soewarta Kosen, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Ferrán Catalá-López, Samath D Dharmaratne, Stany W. Lobo, Alemayehu Hailu, Sebastian Vollmer, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Lalit Dandona, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Befikadu Legesse Wubishet, Sezer Kisa, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Nasir Umar, Adrian Otoiu, Yonas Getaye Tefera, Harapan Harapan, Ivo Iavicoli, Jakub Morze, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Ian E Cogswell, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Sadia Bibi, Stefan Kohler, Florian Fischer, Jagdish Khubchandani, Justice Nonvignon, Salah Eddin Karimi, Yousef Khader, Jan-Walter De Neve, Stanislav S. Otstavnov, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Tommi Vasankari, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Khezar Hayat, Chythra R Rao, Priya Rathi, Asma Tahir Awan, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Salime Goharinezhad, Ai Koyanagi, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Angela E Micah, Rakhi Dandona, Jaykaran Charan, Lorainne Tudor Car, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Kenji Shibuya, Aziz Sheikh, B Reshmi, Rovshan Khalilov, Haroon Ahmed, Andrea Werdecker, Alberto Freitas, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Vasily Vlassov, Risky Kusuma Hartono, Leila Keikavoosi-Arani, Gyu Ri Kim, Ana Laura Manda, Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo, Obinna Onwujekwe, Van C. Lansingh, Miklós Szócska, Gelin Xu, Ted R. Miller, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Till Bärnighausen, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Bernhard T. Baune, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Juan Sanabria, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Stefano Olgiati, Navid Rabiee, Mark G. Shrime, Mayowa O. Owolabi, V. E. Nwatah, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Ranil Jayawardena, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Aparna Ichalangod Narayana, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Atif Amin Baig, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Ali Bijani, Arash Ziapour, Seyed Behzad Jazayeri, Francesco Sanmarchi, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Allen Seylani, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Delia Hendrie, Mostafa Amini-Rarani, Manthan D Janodia, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Sorin Hostiuc, Marjan Ajami, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Muhammad Aqeel, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Rawlance Ndejjo, Maarten J. Postma, Luis Camera, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Adnan Kisa, Tahira Ashraf, Tudorel Andrei, Mohammad Ali Jahani, Virginia Bodolica, Chuanhua Yu, Moses K. Muriithi, Pascual R. Valdez, Paul S. F. Yip, Demetris Lamnisos, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Hamed Zandian, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Yeong Yeh Lee, Sana Salehi, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Kyle E. Simpson, Sami Almustanyir Almustanyir, Bogdan Oancea, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Omid Dadras, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Turki Alanzi, Mahaveer Golechha, Bach Xuan Tran, Lal B. Rawal, Shoaib Hassan, Rahul R. Zende, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Adam E. Berman, Long Khanh Dao Le, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Adithi Shetty, Getinet Kassahun, Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw, Usha Ram, Linh Gia Vu, Emilie R Maddison, Yosef Alemayehu, Ali H. Mokdad, Tomislav Mestrovic, Mavra A Riaz, Muhammad Naveed, Koustuv Dalal, Syed Amir Gilani, Reza Malekzadeh, Nikha Bhardwaj, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Rohollah Kalhor, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Amadou Barrow, Christopher J L Murray, Budi Aji, Maitreyi Sahu, Sara D Friedman, Konrad Pesudovs, Robert Reiner, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Mustafa Z. Younis, Aidin Abedi, Sanjay Basu, Nancy Fullman, Darrah McCracken, Rajasekaran Koteeswaran, Falk Schwendicke, Ionela-Roxana Glavan, Mohamed H Hassanein, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Javad Nazari, Khurshid Alam, Bulat Idrisov, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Golnaz Heidari, Asif Hanif, Ghozali Ghozali, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Leila Doshmangir, Simiao Chen, Maha El Tantawi, Stephen S Lim, Bay Vo, Deepak Saxena, Jasvinder A. Singh, Robert Ancuceanu, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Kamal Hezam, Andrew T Olagunju, Sheikh Jamal Hossain, Lindsey E Wallace, Dejana Braithwaite, Sergio I. Prada, Adolfo Martinez-Valle, Brandon Cunningham, Vivek Gupta, Joseph Salama, Rezaul Karim Ripon, Bing-Fang Hwang, Mokhtar Mahdavi, Tamás Joó, Cristiana Abbafati, Behzad Karami Matin, Tushar Garg, Cyrus Alinia, Yingxi Zhao, Richard G. Wamai, Satoshi Ezoe, Anders Larsson, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Maciej Banach, Billingsley Kaambwa, Nader Jahanmehr, Saeed Amini, Foluke Adetola Ojelabi, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Samer Hamidi, Gaetano Isola, Tahereh Javaheri, Gbenga A. Kayode, Nikita Otstavnov, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, David M. Pereira, Mansour Ghafourifard, Saira Afzal, Ravi Prakash Jha, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Giang Thu Vu, G Anil Kumar, Vahit Yigit, Farshad Farzadfar, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Shafiu Mohammed, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Nastaran Barati, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Mohamed M. Gad, Mikk Jürisson, Himanshu Khajuria, Anas M. Saad, Mohammad Rabiee, Abdallah M. Samy, Srinivas Goli, Roman Topor-Madry, Golsum Tsakalos, Mariam Molokhia, Biruk Wogayehu Taddele, Mohammad Ali Moni, E S Abhilash, Timur Aripov, Sepideh Ahmadi, Mehdi Sayyah, Jorge Hugo Villafañe, Peter Andras Gaal, Babayemi O Olakunde, Brijesh Sathian, Anayat Ullah, Ritesh G. Menezes, Samad Azari, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sanni Yaya, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Jalal Arabloo, Saif Ullah, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Bahram Mohajer, Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova, Vinay Nangia, Shrikant Pawar, Moslem Soofi, Antonio Reis de Sá-Junior, Simon I. Hay, Miloje Savic, 2. Global Burden of Disease 2020 Health Financing Collaborator Network, Cicero AFG, Network, Global Burden of Disease 2020 Health Financing Collaborator, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Micah, A. E., Cogswell, I. E., Cunningham, B., Ezoe, S., Harle, A. C., Maddison, E. R., Mccracken, D., Nomura, S., Simpson, K. E., Stutzman, H. N., Tsakalos, G., Wallace, L. E., Zhao, Y., Zende, R. R., Abbafati, C., Abdelmasseh, M., Abedi, A., Abegaz, K. H., Abhilash, E. S., Abolhassani, H., Abrigo, M. R. M., Adhikari, T. B., Afzal, S., Ahinkorah, B. O., Ahmadi, S., Ahmed, H., Ahmed, M. B., Ahmed Rashid, T., Ajami, M., Aji, B., Akalu, Y., Akunna, C. J., Al Hamad, H., Alam, K., Alanezi, F. M., Alanzi, T. M., Alemayehu, Y., Alhassan, R. K., Alinia, C., Aljunid, S. M., Almustanyir, S. A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Alvis-Zakzuk, N. J., Amini, S., Amini-Rarani, M., Amu, H., Ancuceanu, R., Andrei, C. L., Andrei, T., Angell, B., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C. A. T., Antony, C. M., Aqeel, M., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aripov, T., Arrigo, A., Ashraf, T., Atnafu, D. D., Ausloos, M., Avila-Burgos, L., Awan, A. T., Ayano, G., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Azhar, G. S., Babalola, T. K., Bahrami, M. A., Baig, A. A., Banach, M., Barati, N., Barnighausen, T. W., Barrow, A., Basu, S., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Benzian, H., Berman, A. E., Bhagavathula, A. S., Bhardwaj, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhaskar, S., Bibi, S., Bijani, A., Bodolica, V., Bragazzi, N. L., Braithwaite, D., Breitborde, N. J. K., Breusov, A. V., Briko, N. I., Busse, R., Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Callander, E. J., Camera, L. A., Castaneda-Orjuela, C. A., Catala-Lopez, F., Charan, J., Chatterjee, S., Chattu, S. K., Chattu, V. K., Chen, S., Cicero, A. F. G., Dadras, O., Dahlawi, S. M. A., Dai, X., Dalal, K., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J. -W., de Sa-Junior, A. R., Denova-Gutierrez, E., Dhamnetiya, D., Dharmaratne, S. D., Doshmangir, L., Dube, J., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., Eskandarieh, S., Farzadfar, F., Ferede, T. Y., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Freitas, A., Friedman, S. D., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gaal, P. A., Gad, M. M., Garcia-Gordillo, M. A., Garg, T., Ghafourifard, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gholamian, A., Gholamrezanezhad, A., Ghozali, G., Gilani, S. A., Glavan, I. -R., Glushkova, E. V., Goharinezhad, S., Golechha, M., Goli, S., Guha, A., Gupta, V. B., Gupta, V. K., Haakenstad, A., Haider, M. R., Hailu, A., Hamidi, S., Hanif, A., Harapan, H., Hartono, R. K., Hasaballah, A. I., Hassan, S., Hassanein, M. H., Hayat, K., Hegazy, M. I., Heidari, G., Hendrie, D., Heredia-Pi, I., Herteliu, C., Hezam, K., Holla, R., Hossain, S. J., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, S., Huda, T. M., Hwang, B. -F., Iavicoli, I., Idrisov, B., Ilesanmi, O. S., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, S. M. S., Ismail, N. E., Isola, G., Jahani, M. A., Jahanmehr, N., Jakovljevic, M., Janodia, M. D., Javaheri, T., Jayapal, S. K., Jayawardena, R., Jazayeri, S. B., Jha, R. P., Jonas, J. B., Joo, T., Joukar, F., Jurisson, M., Kaambwa, B., Kalhor, R., Kanchan, T., Kandel, H., Karami Matin, B., Karimi, S. E., Kassahun, G., Kayode, G. A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Keikavoosi-Arani, L., Khader, Y. S., Khajuria, H., Khalilov, R., Khammarnia, M., Khan, J., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, G. R., Kim, Y. J., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kohler, S., Kosen, S., Koteeswaran, R., Koulmane Laxminarayana, S. L., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Kumar, G. A., Kusuma, D., Lamnisos, D., Lansingh, V. C., Larsson, A. O., Lasrado, S., Le, L. K. D., Lee, S. W. H., Lee, Y. Y., Lim, S. S., Lobo, S. W., Lozano, R., Magdy Abd El Razek, H., Magdy Abd El Razek, M., Mahdavi, M. M., Majeed, A., Makki, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Manda, A. L., Mansour-Ghanaei, F., Mansournia, M. A., Marrugo Arnedo, C. A., Martinez-Valle, A., Masoumi, S. Z., Maude, R. J., Mckee, M., Medina-Solis, C. E., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mesregah, M. K., Mestrovic, T., Milevska Kostova, N., Miller, T. R., Mini, G. K., Mirica, A., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohajer, B., Mohamed, T. A., Mohammadi, M., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, S., Moitra, M., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Moni, M. A., Moradi, Y., Morze, J., Mousavi, S. M., Mpundu-Kaambwa, C., Muriithi, M. K., Muthupandian, S., Nagarajan, A. J., Naimzada, M. D., Nangia, V., Naqvi, A. A., Narayana, A. I., Nascimento, B. R., Naveed, M., Nayak, B. P., Nazari, J., Ndejjo, R., Negoi, I., Neupane Kandel, S., Nguyen, T. H., Nonvignon, J., Noubiap, J. J., Nwatah, V. E., Oancea, B., Ojelabi, F. A. O., Olagunju, A. T., Olakunde, B. O., Olgiati, S., Olusanya, J. O., Onwujekwe, O. E., Otoiu, A., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Padubidri, J. R., Palladino, R., Panda-Jonas, S., Park, E. -C., Pashazadeh Kan, F., Pawar, S., Pazoki Toroudi, H., Pereira, D. M., Perianayagam, A., Pesudovs, K., Piccinelli, C., Postma, M. J., Prada, S. I., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahman, M. H. U., Rahman, M., Rahmani, A. M., Ram, U., Ranabhat, C. L., Ranasinghe, P., Rao, C. R., Rathi, P., Rawaf, D. L., Rawaf, S., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Reshmi, B., Riaz, M. A., Ripon, R. K., Saad, A. M., Sahraian, M. A., Sahu, M., Salama, J. S., Salehi, S., Samy, A. M., Sanabria, J., Sanmarchi, F., Santos, J. V., Santric-Milicevic, M. M., Sathian, B., Savic, M., Saxena, D., Sayyah, M., Schwendicke, F., Senthilkumaran, S., Sepanlou, S. G., Seylani, A., Shahabi, S., Shaikh, M. A., Sheikh, A., Shetty, A., Shetty, P. H., Shibuya, K., Shrime, M. G., Shuja, K. H., Singh, J. A., Skryabin, V. Y., Skryabina, A. A., Soltani, S., Soofi, M., Spurlock, E. E., Stefan, S. C., Szerencses, V., Szocska, M., Tabares-Seisdedos, R., Taddele, B. W., Tefera, Y. G., Thavamani, A., Tobe-Gai, R., Topor-Madry, R., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tudor Car, L., Ullah, A., Ullah, S., Umar, N., Undurraga, E. A., Valdez, P. R., Vasankari, T. J., Villafane, J. H., Violante, F. S., Vlassov, V., Vo, B., Vollmer, S., Vos, T., Vu, G. T., Vu, L. G., Wamai, R. G., Werdecker, A., Woldekidan, M. A., Wubishet, B. L., Xu, G., Yaya, S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yigit, V., Yip, P., Yirdaw, B. W., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M. Z., Yu, C., Yunusa, I., Zahirian Moghadam, T., Zandian, H., Zastrozhin, M. S., Zastrozhina, A., Zhang, Z. -J., Ziapour, A., Zuniga, Y. M. H., Hay, S. I., Murray, C. J. L., and Dieleman, J. L.
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Economic growth ,Financing, Government ,International Cooperation ,HN ,HM ,Global Health ,Gross domestic product ,International Agencies/economics ,0302 clinical medicine ,RA0421 ,Per capita ,Global health ,Healthcare Financing ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,2. Zero hunger ,COVID 19 ,develompment assistance ,health financing ,projection 1995-250 ,INCOME ,COVID-19 ,Development assistance ,Health financing ,COVID-19/economics ,1. No poverty ,Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology ,Articles ,General Medicine ,3. Good health ,Government Programs ,Health Expenditures/statistics & numerical data ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Transparency (graphic) ,QR180 ,Economic Development ,International development ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Government Programs/economics ,Gross Domestic Product ,Context (language use) ,03 medical and health sciences ,Medicine, General & Internal ,General & Internal Medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Developing Countries/economics ,Developing Countries ,Government ,Science & Technology ,Public health ,COVID-19, development assistance, global health ,Global Burden of Disease 2020 Health Financing Collaborator Network ,International Agencies ,Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi ,Business ,Global Health/economics ,Health Expenditures ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery ,RC ,Financing, Government/economics - Abstract
Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01258-7
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- 2021
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