673 results on '"A Grillakis"'
Search Results
2. Fractal and Spectral Analysis of Recent Wildfire Scars in Greece
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Rosu, Iulian-Alin, Grillakis, Manolis, Papadopoulos, Athanasios, Agop, Maricel, and Voulgarakis, Apostolos
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- 2024
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3. Global uniform in $N$ estimates for solutions of a system of Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov type in the case $\beta<1$
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Chong, Jacky, Dong, Xin, Grillakis, Manossos, Machedon, Matei, and Zhao, Zehua
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Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
We extend the results of the 2019 paper by the third and fourth author globally in time. More precisely, we prove uniform in $N$ estimates for the solutions $\phi$, $\Lambda$ and $\Gamma$ of a coupled system of Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov type with interaction potential $V_N(x-y)=N^{3 \beta}v(N^{\beta}(x-y))$ with $\beta<1$. The potential satisfies some technical conditions, but is not small. The initial conditions have finite energy and the "pair correlation" part satisfies a smallness condition, but are otherwise general functions in suitable Sobolev spaces, and the expected correlations in $\Lambda$ develop dynamically in time. The estimates are expected to improve the Fock space bounds from the 2021 paper of the first and fifth author. This will be addressed in a different paper., Comment: 53 pages. Comments are welcome!
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- 2022
4. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.
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Kreibich, Heidi, Van Loon, Anne, Schröter, Kai, Ward, Philip, Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Sairam, Nivedita, Abeshu, Guta, Agafonova, Svetlana, AghaKouchak, Amir, Aksoy, Hafzullah, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Aznar, Blanca, Balkhi, Laila, Barendrecht, Marlies, Biancamaria, Sylvain, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, Bradley, Chris, Budiyono, Yus, Buytaert, Wouter, Capewell, Lucinda, Carlson, Hayley, Cavus, Yonca, Couasnon, Anaïs, Coxon, Gemma, Daliakopoulos, Ioannis, de Ruiter, Marleen, Delus, Claire, Erfurt, Mathilde, Esposito, Giuseppe, François, Didier, Frappart, Frédéric, Freer, Jim, Frolova, Natalia, Gain, Animesh, Grillakis, Manolis, Grima, Jordi, Guzmán, Diego, Huning, Laurie, Ionita, Monica, Kharlamov, Maxim, Khoi, Dao, Kieboom, Natalie, Kireeva, Maria, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Li, Hong-Yi, LLasat, María, Macdonald, David, Mård, Johanna, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, McKenzie, Andrew, Mejia, Alfonso, Mendiondo, Eduardo, Mens, Marjolein, Mobini, Shifteh, Mohor, Guilherme, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi, Nhi, Pham, Petrucci, Olga, Nguyen, Hong, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Razavi, Saman, Ridolfi, Elena, Riegel, Jannik, Sadik, Md, Savelli, Elisa, Sazonov, Alexey, Sharma, Sanjib, Sörensen, Johanna, Arguello Souza, Felipe, Stahl, Kerstin, Steinhausen, Max, Stoelzle, Michael, Szalińska, Wiwiana, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Fuqiang, Tokarczyk, Tamara, Tovar, Carolina, Tran, Thi, Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein, van Vliet, Michelle, Vorogushyn, Sergiy, Wagener, Thorsten, Wang, Yueling, Wendt, Doris, Wickham, Elliot, Yang, Long, Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, Blöschl, Günter, and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
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Climate Change ,Datasets as Topic ,Droughts ,Extreme Weather ,Floods ,Humans ,Hydrology ,Internationality ,Risk Management - Abstract
Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.
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- 2022
5. Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models
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Gnann, Sebastian, Reinecke, Robert, Stein, Lina, Wada, Yoshihide, Thiery, Wim, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Satoh, Yusuke, Pokhrel, Yadu, Ostberg, Sebastian, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Hanasaki, Naota, Grillakis, Manolis, Gosling, Simon N., Burek, Peter, Bierkens, Marc F. P., and Wagener, Thorsten
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- 2023
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6. Many-body excitations in trapped Bose gas: A non-Hermitian view
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Grillakis, Manoussos G., Margetis, Dionisios, and Sorokanich, Stephen
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Mathematical Physics ,Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
We provide the analysis of a physically inspired model for a trapped dilute Bose gas with repulsive pairwise atomic interactions at zero temperature. Our goal is to describe aspects of the excited many-body quantum states by accounting for the scattering of atoms in pairs from the macroscopic state (condensate). We formally construct a many-body Hamiltonian, $\mathcal{H}_{\text{app}}$, that is quadratic in the Boson field operators for noncondensate atoms. This $\mathcal{H}_{\text{app}}$ conserves the total number of atoms. Inspired by Wu (J. Math. Phys., 2:105-123, 1961), we apply a non-unitary transformation to $\mathcal{H}_{\text{app}}$. Key in this non-Hermitian view is the pair-excitation kernel, which in operator form obeys a Riccati equation. In the stationary case, we develop an existence theory for solutions to this operator equation by a variational approach. We connect this theory to the one-particle excitation wave functions heuristically derived by Fetter (Ann. Phys., 70:67-101, 1972). These functions solve an eigenvalue problem for a $J$-self-adjoint operator. From the non-Hermitian Hamiltonian, we derive a one-particle nonlocal equation for low-lying excitations, describe its solutions, and recover Fetter's excitation spectrum. Our approach leads to a description of the excited eigenstates of the reduced Hamiltonian in the $N$-particle sector of Fock space., Comment: 38 pages
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- 2021
7. Global estimates for the Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov equations
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Chong, Jacky Jia Wei, Grillakis, Manoussos G., Machedon, Matei, and Zhao, Zehua
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Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
We prove that certain Sobolev-type norms, slightly stronger than those given by energy conservation, stay bounded uniformly in time and $N$. This allows one to extend the local existence results of the second and third author globally in time. The proof is based on interaction Morawetz-type estimates and Strichartz estimates (including some new end-point results) for the equation $\{ \frac{1}{i}\partial_t-\Delta_{x}-\Delta_{y}+\frac{1}{N}V_N(x-y) \}\Lambda(t, x, y) =F$ in mixed coordinates such as $L^p(dt) L^q(dx) L^2(dy)$, $L^p(dt) L^q(dy) L^2(dx)$, $L^p(dt) L^q(d(x-y)) L^2(d(x+y))$. The main new technical ingredient is a dispersive estimate in mixed coordinates, which may be of interest in its own right.
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- 2020
8. Seasonal forecast-informed reservoir operation. Potential benefits for a water-stressed Mediterranean basin
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Crippa, Nicola, Grillakis, Manolis G., Tsilimigkras, Athanasios, Yang, Guang, Giuliani, Matteo, and Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.
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- 2023
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9. Spatial variability of water-induced soil erosion under climate change and land use/cover dynamics: From assessing the past to foreseeing the future in the Mediterranean island of Crete
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Polykretis, Christos, Grillakis, Manolis G., Manoudakis, Stelios, Seiradakis, Konstantinos D., and Alexakis, Dimitrios D.
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- 2023
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10. The Hartree-Fock equations in modulation spaces
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Bhimani, Divyang G., Grillakis, Manoussos, and Okoudjou, Kasso A.
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Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
We establish both a local and a global well-posedness theories for the nonlinear Hartree-Fock equations and its reduced analog in the setting of the modulation spaces on $\mathbb R^d$. In addition, we prove similar results when a harmonic potential is added to the equations. In the process, we prove the boundedeness of certain multilinear operators on products of the modulation spaces which may be of independent interest., Comment: 28 pages
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- 2019
11. Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
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H. Kreibich, K. Schröter, G. Di Baldassarre, A. F. Van Loon, M. Mazzoleni, G. W. Abeshu, S. Agafonova, A. AghaKouchak, H. Aksoy, C. Alvarez-Garreton, B. Aznar, L. Balkhi, M. H. Barendrecht, S. Biancamaria, L. Bos-Burgering, C. Bradley, Y. Budiyono, W. Buytaert, L. Capewell, H. Carlson, Y. Cavus, A. Couasnon, G. Coxon, I. Daliakopoulos, M. C. de Ruiter, C. Delus, M. Erfurt, G. Esposito, D. François, F. Frappart, J. Freer, N. Frolova, A. K. Gain, M. Grillakis, J. O. Grima, D. A. Guzmán, L. S. Huning, M. Ionita, M. Kharlamov, D. N. Khoi, N. Kieboom, M. Kireeva, A. Koutroulis, W. Lavado-Casimiro, H.-Y. Li, M. C. LLasat, D. Macdonald, J. Mård, H. Mathew-Richards, A. McKenzie, A. Mejia, E. M. Mendiondo, M. Mens, S. Mobini, G. S. Mohor, V. Nagavciuc, T. Ngo-Duc, H. T. T. Nguyen, P. T. T. Nhi, O. Petrucci, N. H. Quan, P. Quintana-Seguí, S. Razavi, E. Ridolfi, J. Riegel, M. S. Sadik, N. Sairam, E. Savelli, A. Sazonov, S. Sharma, J. Sörensen, F. A. A. Souza, K. Stahl, M. Steinhausen, M. Stoelzle, W. Szalińska, Q. Tang, F. Tian, T. Tokarczyk, C. Tovar, T. V. T. Tran, M. H. J. van Huijgevoort, M. T. H. van Vliet, S. Vorogushyn, T. Wagener, Y. Wang, D. E. Wendt, E. Wickham, L. Yang, M. Zambrano-Bigiarini, and P. J. Ward
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Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Geology ,QE1-996.5 - Abstract
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
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- 2023
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12. Assessing public preferences for a wildfire mitigation policy in Crete, Greece
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Misal, Haleema, Varela, Elsa, Voulgarakis, Apostolos, Rovithakis, Anastasios, Grillakis, Manolis, and Kountouris, Yiannis
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- 2023
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13. Uniform in $N$ estimates for a Bosonic system of Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov type
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Grillakis, Manoussos G. and Machedon, Matei
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Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs ,Mathematical Physics ,35, 81 - Abstract
We prove local in time, uniform in $N$, estimates for the solutions $\phi$, $\Lambda$ and $\Gamma$ of a coupled system of Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov type with interaction potential $v_N(x-y) =N^{3 \beta} v(N^{\beta}(x-y))$, with $\beta <1$ and $v$ a Schwartz function (satisfying additional technical requirements). The initial conditions are general functions in a Sobolev-type space, and the expected correlations in $\Lambda$ develop dynamically in time. As shown in our previous work, as well as the work of J. Chong, (both in the case $\beta<2/3$), using the conserved quantities of the system of equations, this type of local in time estimates can be extended globally. Also, they can be used to derive Fock space estimates for the approximation of the exact evolution of a Bosonic system by states of the form $e^{\sqrt N A(\phi)}e^{B(k)} \Omega$. This will be addressed in detail in future work., Comment: Revised version, to appear in Comm. PDE
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- 2018
14. Large data global regularity for the $2+1$-dimensional equivariant Faddeev model
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Geba, Dan-Andrei and Grillakis, Manoussos G.
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Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs ,High Energy Physics - Theory ,Mathematical Physics ,35L70, 81T13 - Abstract
This article addresses the large data global regularity for the equivariant case of the $2+1$-dimensional Faddeev model and shows that it holds true for initial data in $H^s\times H^{s-1}(\mathbb{R}^2)$ with $s>3$., Comment: 35 pages. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1707.02917
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- 2017
15. Large data global regularity for the classical equivariant Skyrme model
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Geba, Dan-Andrei and Grillakis, Manoussos G.
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Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs ,High Energy Physics - Theory ,Mathematical Physics ,35L70, 81T13 - Abstract
This article is concerned with the large data global regularity for the equivariant case of the classical Skyrme model and proves that this is valid for initial data in $H^s\times H^{s-1}(\mathbb{R}^3)$ with $s>7/2$., Comment: 37 pages
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- 2017
16. Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge
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Stefanie Heinicke, Jan Volkholz, Jacob Schewe, Simon N Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sandra Zimmermann, Matthias Mengel, Inga J Sauer, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Manoli Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Kedar Otta, Wei Qi, Yusuke Satoh, Tobias Stacke, Tokuta Yokohata, and Katja Frieler
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model evaluation ,model intercomparison ,flood ,hydrological extremes ,river routing ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the ‘model evaluation and impact attribution’ part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of daily and maximum annual discharge based on ISIMIP3a simulations from nine GHMs by comparing the simulations to observational data from 644 river gauge stations. We also assess low flows and the effects of different river routing schemes. We find that models can reproduce variability in daily and maximum annual discharge, but tend to overestimate both quantities, as well as low flows. Models perform better at stations in wetter areas and at lower elevations. Discharge routed with the river routing model CaMa-Flood can improve the performance of some models, but for others, variability is overestimated, leading to reduced model performance. This study indicates that areas for future model development include improving the simulation of processes in arid regions and cold dynamics at high elevations. We further suggest that studies attributing observed changes in discharge to historical climate change using the current model ensemble will be most meaningful in humid areas, at low elevations, and in places with a regular seasonal discharge as these are the regions where the underlying dynamics seem to be best represented.
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- 2024
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17. Future shifts in the phenology of table grapes on Crete under a warming climate
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Grillakis, Manolis G., Doupis, Georgios, Kapetanakis, Evangelos, and Goumenaki, Eleni
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- 2022
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18. Climate change implications for olive flowering in Crete, Greece: projections based on historical data
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Grillakis, Manolis G., Kapetanakis, Evangelos G., and Goumenaki, Eleni
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- 2022
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19. Gait analysis in a rat model of traumatic brain injury
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Reed, John, Grillakis, Antigone, Kline, Alyssa, Ahmed, Anwar E., and Byrnes, Kimberly R.
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- 2021
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20. Beyond mean field: On the role of pair excitations in the evolution of condensates
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Grillakis, M. and Machedon, M.
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Mathematical Physics - Abstract
This paper (published in 2013) introduces a refinement of the equations for the pair excitation function used in our previous work with D. Margetis. The new equations are Euler-Lagrange equations, and the solutions conserve energy and the number of particles., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1509.05911
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- 2015
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21. Pair excitations and the mean field approximation of interacting Bosons, II
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Grillakis, M. and Machedon, M.
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Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
We consider a large number of Bosons with interaction potential $v_N(x)=N^{3 \beta}v(N^{\beta}x)$. In earlier papers we considered a set of equations for the condensate $\phi$ and pair excitation function $k$ and proved that they provide a Fock space approximation to the exact evolution of the condensate for $\beta <\frac{1}{3}$. This result was extended to the case $\beta<\frac{1}{2}$ by E. Kuz, where it was also argued informally that the equations of our earlier work do not provide an approximation for $\beta>\frac{1}{2}$. In 2013, we introduced a coupled refinement of our original equations and conjectured that they provide a Fock space approximation in the range $0 \le \beta < 1$. In the current paper we prove that this is indeed the case for $\beta < \frac{2}{3}$, at least locally in time. In order to do that, we re-formulate the equations of \cite{GMM} in a way reminiscent of BBGKY and apply harmonic analysis techniques in the spirit of X. Chen and J. Holmer to prove the necessary estimates. In turn, these estimates provide bounds for the pair excitation function $k$.
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- 2015
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22. Assessment of water-induced soil erosion as a threat to cultural heritage sites: the case of Chania prefecture, Crete Island, Greece
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Christos Polykretis, Dimitrios D. Alexakis, Manolis G. Grillakis, Athos Agapiou, Branka Cuca, Nikos Papadopoulos, and Apostolos Sarris
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cultural heritage ,soil erosion ,usped model ,gis ,crete ,Geography. Anthropology. Recreation ,Geology ,QE1-996.5 - Abstract
Among the environmental threats, the intensification of natural hazards, such as soil erosion may threaten the integrity and value of cultural heritage sites. In this framework, the present study’s main objective was to identify archaeological sites susceptible by soil erosion, taking the case study of Chania prefecture in Crete Island. Remotely sensed and other available geospatial datasets were analyzed in a GIS-based empirical model, namely Unit Stream Power Erosion and Deposition (USPED), to estimate the average annual soil loss and deposition rates due to water-induced erosion in the study area. The resultant erosion map was then intersected with the locations and surrounding zones of the known archaeological sites for identifying the sites and the portions of their vicinity being at risk. The results revealed that Chania prefecture and its cultural heritage are significantly affected by both soil loss and deposition processes. Between the two processes, soil loss was found to be more intensive, influencing a larger part of the prefecture (especially to the west) as well as a higher amount of archaeological sites. The extreme and high soil loss classes were also detected to cover the most considerable portion of the sites’ surrounding area. The identification of the archaeological sites being most exposed to soil erosion hazard can constitute a basis for cultural heritage managers in order to take preventive preservation measures and develop specific risk mitigation strategies.
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- 2021
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23. Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication
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C.-E. Telteu, H. Müller Schmied, W. Thiery, G. Leng, P. Burek, X. Liu, J. E. S. Boulange, L. S. Andersen, M. Grillakis, S. N. Gosling, Y. Satoh, O. Rakovec, T. Stacke, J. Chang, N. Wanders, H. L. Shah, T. Trautmann, G. Mao, N. Hanasaki, A. Koutroulis, Y. Pokhrel, L. Samaniego, Y. Wada, V. Mishra, J. Liu, P. Döll, F. Zhao, A. Gädeke, S. S. Rabin, and F. Herz
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Geology ,QE1-996.5 - Abstract
Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance model intercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH, JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. We conclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similar equations for various processes, in the end these equations have been adjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. The similarities and differences found among the models analysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, and integrate new processes.
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- 2021
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24. The closed-head impact model of engineered rotational acceleration (CHIMERA) as an application for traumatic brain injury pre-clinical research: A status report
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McNamara, Eileen H., Grillakis, Antigone A., Tucker, Laura B., and McCabe, Joseph T.
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- 2020
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25. Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios
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Tramblay, Yves, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Samaniego, Luis, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Volaire, Florence, Boone, Aaron, Le Page, Michel, Llasat, Maria Carmen, Albergel, Clement, Burak, Selmin, Cailleret, Maxime, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, Davi, Hendrik, Dupuy, Jean-Luc, Greve, Peter, Grillakis, Manolis, Hanich, Lahoucine, Jarlan, Lionel, Martin-StPaul, Nicolas, Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi, Mouillot, Florent, Pulido-Velazquez, David, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Renard, Delphine, Turco, Marco, Türkeş, Murat, Trigo, Ricardo, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Vilagrosa, Alberto, Zribi, Mehrez, and Polcher, Jan
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- 2020
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26. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study
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R. Reinecke, H. Müller Schmied, T. Trautmann, L. S. Andersen, P. Burek, M. Flörke, S. N. Gosling, M. Grillakis, N. Hanasaki, A. Koutroulis, Y. Pokhrel, W. Thiery, Y. Wada, S. Yusuke, and P. Döll
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Technology ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Geography. Anthropology. Recreation ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 - Abstract
Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases instead of decreases are simulated. However, in regions where GCMs predict decreases in precipitation and where groundwater availability is the most important, model agreement among GHMs with active vegetation is the lowest. Overall, large uncertainties in the model outcomes suggest that additional research on simulating groundwater processes in GHMs is necessary.
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- 2021
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27. Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change
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Pokhrel, Yadu, Felfelani, Farshid, Satoh, Yusuke, Boulange, Julien, Burek, Peter, Gädeke, Anne, Gerten, Dieter, Gosling, Simon N., Grillakis, Manolis, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanasaki, Naota, Kim, Hyungjun, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Liu, Junguo, Papadimitriou, Lamprini, Schewe, Jacob, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Stacke, Tobias, Telteu, Camelia-Eliza, Thiery, Wim, Veldkamp, Ted, Zhao, Fang, and Wada, Yoshihide
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- 2021
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28. Palaeoflood discharge estimation using dendrogeomorphic methods, rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling—a case study from southern Crete
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Ruman, Stanislav, Tichavský, Radek, Šilhán, Karel, and Grillakis, Manolis G.
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- 2021
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29. Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge
- Author
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Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S.N, Müller Schmied, H., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I.J, Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T., Frieler, K., Heinicke, S., Volkholz, J., Schewe, J., Gosling, S.N, Müller Schmied, H., Zimmermann, S., Mengel, M., Sauer, I.J, Burek, P., Chang, J., Kou-Giesbrecht, S., Grillakis, M., Guillaumot, L., Hanasaki, N., Koutroulis, A., Otta, K., Qi, W., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Yokohata, T., and Frieler, K.
- Abstract
Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the ‘model evaluation and impact attribution’ part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of daily and maximum annual discharge based on ISIMIP3a simulations from nine GHMs by comparing the simulations to observational data from 644 river gauge stations. We also assess low flows and the effects of different river routing schemes. We find that models can reproduce variability in daily and maximum annual discharge, but tend to overestimate both quantities, as well as low flows. Models perform better at stations in wetter areas and at lower elevations. Discharge routed with the river routing model CaMa-Flood can improve the performance of some models, but for others, variability is overestimated, leading to reduced model performance. This study indicates that areas for future model development include improving the simulation of processes in arid regions and cold dynamics at high elevations. We further suggest that studies attributing observed changes in discharge to historical climate change using the current model ensemble will be most meaningful in humid areas, at low elevations, and in places with a regular seasonal discharge as these are the regions where the underlying dynamics seem to be best represented.
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds
- Author
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Gädeke, Anne, Krysanova, Valentina, Aryal, Aashutosh, Chang, Jinfeng, Grillakis, Manolis, Hanasaki, Naota, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Pokhrel, Yadu, Satoh, Yusuke, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Stacke, Tobias, Tang, Qiuhong, Wada, Yoshihide, and Thonicke, Kirsten
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change
- Author
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Grillakis, Manolis G.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Global water availability under high-end climate change: A vulnerability based assessment
- Author
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Koutroulis, A.G., Papadimitriou, L.V., Grillakis, M.G., Tsanis, I.K., Warren, R., and Betts, R.A.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Pair excitations and the mean field approximation of interacting Bosons, I
- Author
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Grillakis, M. and Machedon, M.
- Subjects
Mathematical Physics ,Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
In our previous work \cite{GMM1},\cite{GMM2} we introduced a correction to the mean field approximation of interacting Bosons. This correction describes the evolution of pairs of particles that leave the condensate and subsequently evolve on a background formed by the condensate. In \cite{GMM2} we carried out the analysis assuming that the interactions are independent of the number of particles $N$. Here we consider the case of stronger interactions. We offer a new transparent derivation for the evolution of pair excitations. Indeed, we obtain a pair of linear equations describing their evolution. Furthermore, we obtain apriory estimates independent of the number of particles and use these to compare the exact with the approximate dynamics.
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Second-order corrections to mean-field evolution of weakly interacting Bosons, II
- Author
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Grillakis, M., Machedon, M., and Margetis, D.
- Subjects
Mathematical Physics ,Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
We study the evolution of a N-body weakly interacting system of Bosons. Our work forms an extension of our previous paper I, in which we derived a second-order correction to a mean-field evolution law for coherent states in the presence of small interaction potential. Here, we remove the assumption of smallness of the interaction potential and prove global existence of solutions to the equation for the second-order correction. This implies an improved Fock-space estimate for our approximation of the N-body state.
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Remarks on global a priori estimates for the nonlinear Schr\'odinger equation
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Colliander, J., Grillakis, M., and Tzirakis, N.
- Subjects
Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs ,35Q55 - Abstract
We present a unified approach for obtaining global a priori estimates for solutions of nonlinear defocusing Schr\"odinger equations with defocusing nonlinearities. The estimates are produced by contracting the local momentum conservation law with appropriate vector fields. The corresponding law is written for defocusing equations of tensored solutions. In particular, we obtain a new estimate in two dimensions. We bound the restricted $L_t^4L_{\gamma}^4$ Strichartz norm of the solution on any curve $\gamma$ in $\mathbb R^2$. For the specific case of a straight line we upgrade this estimate to a weighted Strichartz estimate valid in the full plane.
- Published
- 2009
36. Second-order corrections to mean field evolution for weakly interacting Bosons. I
- Author
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Grillakis, Manoussos G., Machedon, Matei, and Margetis, Dionisios
- Subjects
Mathematical Physics ,Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
Inspired by the works of Rodnianski and Schlein and Wu, we derive a new nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation that describes a second-order correction to the usual tensor product (mean-field) approximation for the Hamiltonian evolution of a many-particle system in Bose-Einstein condensation. We show that our new equation, if it has solutions with appropriate smoothness and decay properties, implies a new Fock space estimate. We also show that for an interaction potential $v(x)= \epsilon \chi(x) |x|^{-1}$, where $\epsilon$ is sufficiently small and $\chi \in C_0^{\infty}$, our program can be easily implemented locally in time. We leave global in time issues, more singular potentials and sophisticated estimates for a subsequent part (part II) of this paper.
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge.
- Author
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Heinicke, Stefanie, Volkholz, Jan, Schewe, Jacob, Gosling, Simon N, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Zimmermann, Sandra, Mengel, Matthias, Sauer, Inga J, Burek, Peter, Chang, Jinfeng, Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian, Grillakis, Manoli, Guillaumot, Luca, Hanasaki, Naota, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Otta, Kedar, Qi, Wei, Satoh, Yusuke, Stacke, Tobias, and Yokohata, Tokuta
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Tensor products and Correlation Estimates with applications to Nonlinear Schr\'odinger equations
- Author
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Colliander, Jim, Grillakis, Manoussos, and Tzirakis, Nikolaos
- Subjects
Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs ,35Q55 - Abstract
We prove new interaction Morawetz type (correlation) estimates in one and two dimensions. In dimension two the estimate corresponds to the nonlinear diagonal analogue of Bourgain's bilinear refinement of Strichartz. For the 2d case we provide a proof in two different ways. First, we follow the original approach of Lin and Strauss but applied to tensor products of solutions. We then demonstrate the proof using commutator vector operators acting on the conservation laws of the equation. This method can be generalized to obtain correlation estimates in all dimensions. In one dimension we use the Gauss-Weierstrass summability method acting on the conservation laws. We then apply the 2d estimate to nonlinear Schr\"odinger equations and derive a direct proof of Nakanishi's $H^1$ scattering result for every $L^{2}$-supercritical nonlinearity. We also prove scattering below the energy space for a certain class of $L^{2}$-supercritical equations., Comment: 45 pages
- Published
- 2008
39. The Plaka Bridge in Epirus: An Evaluation of New Building Materials for Its Restoration
- Author
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Maria Apostolopoulou, Ioannis Nikolaidis, Iakovos Grillakis, Myrto Kalofonou, Vasileios Keramidas, Ekaterini T. Delegou, Maria Karoglou, Asterios Bakolas, Kyriakos C. Lampropoulos, Charalampos Mouzakis, and Antonia Moropoulou
- Subjects
bridge ,thermal analysis (TG/DTA) ,microstructure (MIP) ,Epirus stone ,natural hydraulic lime ,Archaeology ,CC1-960 - Abstract
The sustainable preservation of monuments requires the use of performing materials which are at the same time compatible with the monument’s historical building materials to ensure structural integrity, adequate performance of the structure in earthquake stresses, and resilience of both restoration and historical materials. This is especially true for cultural heritage assets that have experienced major destruction, demanding extensive reconstruction. The Plaka Bridge in Epirus, Greece, partially collapsed after a heavy rainfall in 2015. It was a supreme example of traditional stone bridge architecture of the region and an important landmark. In the present study, a potential restoration stone from a nearby quarry was examined in terms of compatibility in relation to the dominant historical building stone of the bridge, as well as in terms of mechanical performance, through a variety of in lab techniques. In addition, criteria were set for restoration mortars, taking into account the characteristics of the historical materials, as well as the environment of the bridge. The results of the study regarding the restoration stone and mortars are presented and assessed, in order to select the most appropriate restoration materials for Plaka Bridge in its upcoming restoration, aiming to enhance the overall resilience of the structure.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Apriori Estimates for Many-Body Hamiltonian Evolution of Interacting Boson System
- Author
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Grillakis, Manoussos G. and Margetis, Dionisios
- Subjects
Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs ,Mathematical Physics ,35B45 ,35Q40 ,76Y05 ,81V70 ,82C22 - Abstract
We study the evolution of a many-particle system whose wave function obeys the N-body Schroedinger equation under Bose symmetry. The system Hamiltonian describes pairwise particle interactions in the absence of an external potential. We derive apriori dispersive estimates that express the overall repulsive nature of the particle interactions. These estimates hold for a wide class of two-body interaction potentials which are independent of the particle number, N. We discuss applications of these estimates to the BBGKY hierarchy for reduced density matrices analyzed by Elgart, Erdos, Schlein and Yau., Comment: 25 pages, 2 figures
- Published
- 2008
41. Impurity and quaternions in nonrelativistic scattering from a quantum memory
- Author
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Margetis, Dionisios and Grillakis, Manoussos G.
- Subjects
Mathematical Physics ,81Q05 ,81U15 - Abstract
Models of quantum computing rely on transformations of the states of a quantum memory. We study mathematical aspects of a model proposed by Wu in which the memory state is changed via the scattering of incoming particles. This operation causes the memory content to deviate from a pure state, i.e. induces impurity. For nonrelativistic particles scattered from a two-state memory and sufficiently general interaction potentials in 1+1 dimensions, we express impurity in terms of quaternionic commutators. In this context, pure memory states correspond to null hyperbolic quaternions. In the case with point interactions, the scattering process amounts to appropriate rotations of quaternions in the frequency domain. Our work complements a previous analysis by Margetis and Myers (2006 J. Phys. A 39 11567--11581)., Comment: 16 pages, no figures
- Published
- 2007
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
42. Improved interaction Morawetz inequalities for the cubic nonlinear Schr\'odinger equation on $\R^2$
- Author
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Colliander, J., Grillakis, M., and Tzirakis, N.
- Subjects
Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs - Abstract
We prove global well-posedness for low regularity data for the $L^2-critical$ defocusing nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation (NLS) in 2d. More precisely we show that a global solution exists for initial data in the Sobolev space $H^{s}(\mathbb R^2)$ and any $s>{2/5}$. This improves the previous result of Fang and Grillakis where global well-posedness was established for any $s \geq {1/2}$. We use the $I$-method to take advantage of the conservation laws of the equation. The new ingredient is an interaction Morawetz estimate similar to one that has been used to obtain global well-posedness and scattering for the cubic NLS in 3d. The derivation of the estimate in our case is technical since the smoothed out version of the solution $Iu$ introduces error terms in the interaction Morawetz inequality. A byproduct of the method is that the $H^{s}$ norm of the solution obeys polynomial-in-time bounds., Comment: 21 pages
- Published
- 2007
43. A systematic review and meta-analysis of sleep architecture and chronic traumatic brain injury
- Author
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Mantua, Janna, Grillakis, Antigone, Mahfouz, Sanaa H., Taylor, Maura R., Brager, Allison J., Yarnell, Angela M., Balkin, Thomas J., Capaldi, Vincent F., and Simonelli, Guido
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
44. Sleep health epidemiology in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of poor sleep quality and sleep duration
- Author
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Simonelli, Guido, Marshall, Nathaniel S., Grillakis, Antigone, Miller, Christopher B., Hoyos, Camilla M., and Glozier, Nick
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment
- Author
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Koutroulis, A.G., Papadimitriou, L.V., Grillakis, M.G., Tsanis, I.K., Wyser, K., and Betts, R.A.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change
- Author
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Wim Thiery, Stefan Lange, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Lukas Gudmundsson, Sonia I Seneviratne, Marina Andrijevic, Katja Frieler, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, David N Bresch, Fang Zhao, Sven N Willner, Matthias Buechner, Jan Volkholz, Nico Bauer, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Louis Francois, Manolis Grillakis, Simon N Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Thomas Hickler, Veronika Huber, Akihiko Ito, Jonas Jaegermeyr, Nikolay Khabarov, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Wenfeng Liu, Wolfgang Lutz, Matthias Mengel, Christoph Mueller, Sebastian Ostberg, Christopher P O Reyer, Tobias Stacke, and Yoshihide Wada
- Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. Fractal and Spectral Analysis of Recent Wildfire Scars in Greece
- Author
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Rosu, Iulian-Alin, primary, Grillakis, Manolis, additional, Papadopoulos, Athanasios, additional, Agop, Maricel, additional, and Voulgarakis, Apostolos, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Climate drivers of global wildfire burned area
- Author
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Manolis Grillakis, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Anastasios Rovithakis, Konstantinos D Seiradakis, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Robert D Field, Matthew Kasoar, Athanasios Papadopoulos, and Mihalis Lazaridis
- Subjects
fire weather index ,burned area ,climate sensitivity ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
Wildfire is an integral part of the Earth system, but at the same time it can pose serious threats to human society and to certain types of terrestrial ecosystems. Meteorological conditions are a key driver of wildfire activity and extent, which led to the emergence of the use of fire danger indices that depend solely on weather conditions. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is a widely used fire danger index of this kind. Here, we evaluate how well the FWI, its components, and the climate variables from which it is derived, correlate with observation-based burned area (BA) for a variety of world regions. We use a novel technique, according to which monthly BA are grouped by size for each Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) pyrographic region. We find strong correlations of BA anomalies with the FWI anomalies, as well as with the underlying deviations from their climatologies for the four climate variables from which FWI is estimated, namely, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind. We quantify the relative sensitivity of the observed BA to each of the four climate variables, finding that this relationship strongly depends on the pyrographic region and land type. Our results indicate that the BA anomalies strongly correlate with FWI anomalies at a GFED region scale, compared to the strength of the correlation with individual climate variables. Additionally, among the individual climate variables that comprise the FWI, relative humidity and temperature are the most influential factors that affect the observed BA. Our results support the use of the composite fire danger index FWI, as well as its sub-indices, the Build-Up Index (BUI) and the Initial Spread Index (ISI), comparing to single climate variables, since they are found to correlate better with the observed forest or non-forest BA, for the most regions across the globe.
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece
- Author
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Anastasios Rovithakis, Manolis G Grillakis, Konstantinos D Seiradakis, Christos Giannakopoulos, Anna Karali, Robert Field, Mihalis Lazaridis, and Apostolos Voulgarakis
- Subjects
fire danger ,fire weather index ,EURO-CORDEX ,wildfires ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are expected to change, contributing to longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity will likely increase. In the present study, the changes in future fire danger conditions are assessed for the different regions of Greece using the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). Gridded future climate output as estimated from three regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment are utilized. We use three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a middle-of-the-road scenario (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Based on established critical fire FWI threshold values for Greece, the future change in days with critical fire danger were calculated for different areas of Greece domains. The results show that fire danger is expected to progressively increase in the future especially in the high-end climate change scenario with southern and eastern regions of Greece expected to have up to 40 additional days of high fire danger relative to the late 20th century, on average. Crete, the Aegean Islands, the Attica region, as well as parts of Peloponnese are predicted to experience a stronger increase in fire danger.
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales
- Author
-
Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Tobias Geiger, Fang Zhao, Iliusi Vega, Ted Veldkamp, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Lila Warszawski, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jacob Schewe, David N. Bresch, Matthias Büchner, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Kerry Emanuel, Christian Folberth, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis G. Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Alexandra-Jane Henrot, Thomas Hickler, Yasushi Honda, Akihiko Ito, Nikolay Khabarov, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Wenfeng Liu, Christoph Müller, Kazuya Nishina, Sebastian Ostberg, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Tobias Stacke, Jörg Steinkamp, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Sven Willner, Hong Yang, Minoru Yoshikawa, Chao Yue, and Katja Frieler
- Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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