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Abstract Background Antimicrobial resistance is a global patient safety priority and inappropriate antimicrobial use is a key contributing factor. Evidence have shown that delayed (back-up) antibiotic prescriptions (DP) are an effective and safe strategy for reducing unnecessary antibiotic consumption but its use is controversial. Methods We conducted a realist review to ask why, how, and in what contexts general practitioners (GPs) use DP. We searched five electronic databases for relevant articles and included DP-related data from interviews with healthcare professionals in a related study. Data were analysed using a realist theory-driven approach – theorising which context(s) influenced (mechanisms) resultant outcome(s) (context-mechanism-outcome-configurations: CMOCs). Results Data were included from 76 articles and 41 interviews to develop a program theory comprising nine key and 56 related CMOCs. These explain the reasons for GPs’ tolerance of risk to different uncertainties and how these may interact with GPs’ work environment, self-efficacy and perceived patient concordance to make using DP as a safety-net or social tool more or less likely, at a given time-point. For example, when a GP uses clinical scores or diagnostic tests: a clearly high or low score/test result may mitigate scientific uncertainty and lead to an immediate or no antibiotic decision; an intermediary result may provoke hermeneutic (interpretation-related) uncertainty and lead to DP becoming preferred and used as a safety net. Our program theory explains how DP can be used to mitigate some uncertainties but also provoke or exacerbate others. Conclusion This review explains how, why and in what contexts GPs are more or less likely to use DP, as well as various uncertainties GPs face which DP may mitigate or provoke. We recommend that efforts to plan and implement interventions to optimise antibiotic prescribing in primary care consider these uncertainties and the contexts when DP may be (dis)preferred over other interventions to reduce antibiotic prescribing. We also recommend the following and have included example activities for: (i) reducing demand for immediate antibiotics; (ii) framing DP as an ‘active’ prescribing option; (iii) documenting the decision-making process around DP; and (iv) facilitating social and system support.

Abstract Background Use of electronic health records (EHR) to provide real-world data for research is established, but using EHR to deliver randomised controlled trials (RCTs) more efficiently is less developed. The Allergy AntiBiotics And Microbial resistAnce (ALABAMA) RCT evaluated a penicillin allergy assessment pathway versus usual clinical care in a UK primary care setting. The aim of this paper is to describe how EHRs were used to facilitate efficient delivery of a large-scale randomised trial of a complex intervention embracing efficient participant identification, supporting minimising GP workload, providing accurate post-intervention EHR updates of allergy status, and facilitating participant follow up and outcome data collection. The generalisability of the EHR approach and health economic implications of EHR in clinical trials will be reported in the main ALABAMA trial cost-effectiveness analysis. Methods A descriptive account of the adaptation of functionality within SystmOne used to deliver/facilitate multiple trial processes from participant identification to outcome data collection. Results An ALABAMA organisation group within SystmOne was established which allowed sharing of trial functions/materials developed centrally by the research team. The ‘ALABAMA unit’ within SystmOne was also created and provided a secure efficient environment to access participants’ EHR data. Processes of referring consented participants, allocating them to a trial arm, and assigning specific functions to the intervention arm were developed by adapting tools such as templates, reports, and protocols which were already available in SystmOne as well as pathways to facilitate allergy de-labelling processes and data retrieval for trial outcome analysis. Conclusions ALABAMA is one of the first RCTs to utilise SystmOne EHR functionality and data across the RCT delivery, demonstrating feasibility and applicability to other primary care RCTs. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04108637, registered 05/03/2019. ISRCTN: ISRCTN20579216.

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a stigmatised disease with intersectional associations with poverty, HIV, transmission risk and mortality. The use of visible TB infection prevention and control (IPC) measures, such as masks or isolation, can contribute to stigma. Methods To explore stigma in this condition, we conducted in-depth individual interviews with 18 health workers and 15 patients in the rural Eastern Cape of South Africa using a semi-structured interview guide and narrative approach. We used reflexive thematic analysis guided by line-by-line coding. We then interpreted these key findings using Link and Phelan’s theoretical model of stigma, related this to stigma mitigation recommendations from participants and identified levels of intervention with the Health Stigma and Discrimination Framework. Results Participants shared narratives of how TB IPC measures can contribute to stigma, with some describing feeling ‘less than human’. We found TB IPC measures sometimes exacerbated stigma, for example through introducing physical isolation that became prolonged or through a mask marking the person out as being ill with TB. In this context, stigma emerged from the narrow definition of what mask-wearing symbolises, in contrast with broader uses of masks as a preventative measure. Patient and health workers had contrasting perspectives on the implications of TB IPC-related stigma, with patients focussing on communal benefit, while health workers focussed on the negative impact on the health worker-patient relationship. Participant recommendations to mitigate TB IPC-related stigma included comprehensive information on TB IPC measures, respectful communication between health workers and patients, shifting the focus of TB IPC messages to communal safety (which could draw on ubuntu, a humanist framework) and using universal IPC precautions instead of measures targeted at someone with infectious TB. Conclusions Health facilities may unwittingly perpetuate stigma through TB IPC implementation, but they also have the potential to reduce it. Evoking ‘ubuntu’ as an African humanist conceptual framework could provide a novel perspective to guide future TB IPC stigma mitigation interventions, including policy changes to universal IPC precautions.

Abstract Understanding the factors driving the maintenance of long-term biodiversity in changing environments is essential for improving restoration and sustainability strategies in the face of global environmental change. Biodiversity is shaped by both niche and stochastic processes, however the strength of deterministic processes in unpredictable environmental regimes is highly debated. Since communities continuously change over time and space—species persist, disappear or (re)appear—understanding the drivers of species gains and losses from communities should inform us about whether niche or stochastic processes dominate community dynamics. Applying a nonparametric causal discovery approach to a 30-year time series containing annual abundances of benthic invertebrates across 66 locations in New Zealand rivers, we found a strong negative causal relationship between species gains and losses directly driven by predation indicating that niche processes dominate community dynamics. Despite the unpredictable nature of these system, environmental noise was only indirectly related to species gains and losses through altering life history trait distribution. Using a stochastic birth-death framework, we demonstrate that the negative relationship between species gains and losses can not emerge without strong niche processes. Our results showed that even in systems that are dominated by unpredictable environmental variability, species interactions drive continuous community assembly.

Abstract Background The net benefit of aspirin cessation in older adults remains uncertain. This study aimed to use observational data to emulate a randomized trial of aspirin cessation versus continuation in older adults without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods Post hoc analysis using a target trial emulation framework applied to the immediate post-trial period (2017–2021) of a study of low-dose aspirin initiation in adults aged ≥ 70 years (ASPREE; NCT01038583). Participants from Australia and the USA were included if they were free of CVD at the start of the post-trial intervention period (time zero, T0) and had been taking open-label or randomized aspirin immediately before T0. The two groups in the target trial were as follows: aspirin cessation (participants who were taking randomized aspirin immediately before T0; assumed to have stopped at T0 as instructed) versus aspirin continuation (participants on open-label aspirin at T0 regardless of their randomized treatment; assumed to have continued at T0). The outcomes after T0 were incident CVD, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), all-cause mortality, and major bleeding during 3, 6, and 12 months (short-term) and 48 months (long-term) follow-up. Hazard ratios (HRs) comparing aspirin cessation to continuation were estimated from propensity-score (PS) adjusted Cox proportional-hazards regression models. Results We included 6103 CVD-free participants (cessation: 5427, continuation: 676). Over both short- and long-term follow-up, aspirin cessation versus continuation was not associated with elevated risk of CVD, MACE, and all-cause mortality (HRs, at 3 and 48 months respectively, were 1.23 and 0.73 for CVD, 1.11 and 0.84 for MACE, and 0.23 and 0.79 for all-cause mortality, p > 0.05), but cessation had a reduced risk of incident major bleeding events (HRs at 3 and 48 months, 0.16 and 0.63, p

ABSTRACT Detection of multiple pneumococcal serotype carriage can enhance monitoring of pneumococcal vaccine impact, particularly among high-burden childhood populations. We assessed methods for identifying co-carriage of pneumococcal serotypes from whole-genome sequences. Twenty-four nasopharyngeal samples were collected during community carriage surveillance from healthy children in Blantyre, Malawi, which were then serotyped by microarray. Pneumococcal DNA from culture plate sweeps were sequenced using Illumina MiSeq, and genomic serotyping was carried out using SeroCall and PneumoKITy. Their sensitivity was calculated in reference to the microarray data. Local maxima in the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) density distributions were assessed for their correspondence to the relative abundance of serotypes. Across the 24 individuals, the microarray detected 77 non-unique serotypes, of which 42 occurred at high relative abundance (>10%) (per individual, median, 3; range, 1–6 serotypes). The average sequencing depth was 57X (range: 21X–88X). The sensitivity of SeroCall for identifying high-abundance serotypes was 98% (95% CI, 0.87–1.00), 20% (0.08–0.36) for low abundance (

There are many examples of poor TB infection prevention and control (IPC) implementation in the academic literature, describing a high-risk environment for nosocomial spread of airborne diseases to patients and health workers. We developed a positive deviant organisational case study drawing on Weick’s theory of organisational sensemaking. We focused on a district hospital in the rural Eastern Cape, South Africa and used four primary care clinics as comparator sites. We interviewed 18 health workers to understand TB IPC implementation over time. We included follow-up interviews on interactions between TB and COVID-19 IPC. We found that TB IPC implementation at the district hospital was strengthened by continually adapting strategies based on synergistic interventions (e.g. TB triage and staff health services), changes in what value health workers attached to TB IPC and establishing organisational TB IPC norms. The COVID-19 pandemic severely tested organisational resilience and COVID-19 IPC measures competed instead of acted synergistically with TB. Yet there is the opportunity for applying COVID-19 IPC organisational narratives to TB IPC to support its use. Based on this positive deviant case we recommend viewing TB IPC implementation as a social process where health workers contribute to how evidence is interpreted and applied.

IntroductionGenomics is a lifespan competency that is important for improving health outcomes for individuals, families, and communities. Nurses play a key role in genomic healthcare and realizing the potential of the genomic era.MethodsWe aimed to chart the current state of genomics in nursing by conducting a systematic scoping review of the literature in four databases (2012–2022). We categorized included articles using the Cochrane Collaboration outcome domains/sub-domains and identify key topical areas.ResultsOf 8532 retrieved articles, we identified 67 articles on ‘consumer-oriented outcomes’ (patient and family) for analysis. Identified articles primarily centered on themes of genetic testing and screening. Most studies reported non-interventional studies 39/67 (58%) and more than half were from the U.S.A. 34/67 (51%). Six of nine subdomains were reported on. The “patient involvement in care” subdomain was the most commonly reported subdomain (17/67, 25%) while “treatment outcomes” had the fewest reports (5/67, 8%). Overall, consumers (i.e., patients and families) had high satisfaction with nurse-led interventions.DiscussionSynthesizing findings revealed key knowledge gaps and unmet patient informational needs around genetic testing and decision support. There are opportunities for interprofessional collaboration between nursing and genetic counseling to meet the mounting demand for genomic healthcare and develop more person-centered approaches to genetic counseling and decisional support. Findings support the need for interventional studies and enhanced focus on implementation for nurses to improve consumer-oriented outcomes.

Background The risk–benefit balance of statin use in healthy older people is uncertain. We describe the baseline characteristics of the STAREE (Statins in Reducing Events in the Elderly) trial, which is a randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled trial among community‐dwelling older people; the trial evaluated the effect of atorvastatin 40 mg for the prevention of major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke), and on disability‐free survival (survival free of both dementia and persistent physical disability). Methods and Results STAREE enrolled people aged ≥70 years from 1583 general practices across Australia with no history of clinical cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or dementia. Baseline data collected included demographic, clinical, cognitive (Modified Mini‐Mental State Examination), psychological (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Short Depression Scale), lifestyle, medical, physical, blood and urine measures, and quality of life. Demographic and clinical characteristics of study participants were then compared with publicly available landmark statin trials. A total of 9971 participants were recruited (mean±SD age 74.7±4.5 years, 4023 (40%) ≥75 years, 52% women) between July 2015 and March 2023. The mean low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol was 3.27 mmol/L (SD=0.72; 126 mg/dL). Hypertension was reported by 43% of participants and the mean blood pressure was 136/80 mm Hg. Compared with previous landmark statin trials that included primary prevention cohorts, STAREE is unique in including such a large number of older (≥75 years) independent‐living people. Conclusions STAREE is the largest primary prevention trial of statins powered to address the important clinical outcomes of major cardiovascular events, disability‐free survival, and cognition in older people. Registration https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02099123.

Background Protein biomarkers that reflect different pathophysiological pathways have been associated with the risk of adverse cardiovascular events. However, it is uncertain whether these associations are sustained with increasing years after the biomarkers are measured. Methods and Results In this cohort study, 7745 patients with coronary heart disease who participated in the LIPID (Long‐Term Intervention With Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease) trial, BNP (B‐type natriuretic peptide), troponin I, cystatin‐C, C‐reactive protein, d‐dimer and midregional proadrenomedullin were measured at baseline and after 1 year. Discrimination of plasma biomarker concentrations for cardiovascular death were evaluated in landmark analyses from 1 year for the next 5 years of the randomized trial, and for 10 additional years after trial completion. All 6 biomarkers were associated with risk of cardiovascular death (n=1903) both during and after the clinical trial (each P

BackgroundSepsis is a common cause of serious illness and death. Sepsis management remains challenging and suboptimal. To support rapid sepsis diagnosis and treatment, screening tools have been embedded into hospital digital systems to appear as digital alerts. The implementation of digital alerts to improve the management of sepsis and deterioration is a complex intervention that has to fit with team workflow and the views and practices of hospital staff. Despite the importance of human decision-making and behavior in optimal implementation, there are limited qualitative studies that explore the views and experiences of health care professionals regarding digital alerts as sepsis or deterioration computerized clinician decision support systems (CCDSSs). ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the views and experiences of health care professionals on the use of sepsis or deterioration CCDSSs and to identify barriers and facilitators to their implementation and use in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals. MethodsWe conducted a qualitative, multisite study with unstructured observations and semistructured interviews with health care professionals from emergency departments, outreach teams, and intensive or acute units in 3 NHS hospital trusts in England. Data from both interviews and observations were analyzed together inductively using thematic analysis. ResultsA total of 22 health care professionals were interviewed, and 12 observation sessions were undertaken. A total of four themes regarding digital alerts were identified: (1) support decision-making as nested in electronic health records, but never substitute professionals’ knowledge and experience; (2) remind to take action according to the context, such as the hospital unit and the job role; (3) improve the alerts and their introduction, by making them more accessible, easy to use, not intrusive, more accurate, as well as integrated across the whole health care system; and (4) contextual factors affecting views and use of alerts in the NHS trusts. Digital alerts are more optimally used in general hospital units with a lower senior decision maker:patient ratio and by health care professionals with experience of a similar technology. Better use of the alerts was associated with quality improvement initiatives and continuous sepsis training. The trusts’ features, such as the presence of a 24/7 emergency outreach team, good technological resources, and staffing and teamwork, favored a more optimal use. ConclusionsTrust implementation of sepsis or deterioration CCDSSs requires support on multiple levels and at all phases of the intervention, starting from a prego-live analysis addressing organizational needs and readiness. Advancements toward minimally disruptive and smart digital alerts as sepsis or deterioration CCDSSs, which are more accurate and specific but at the same time scalable and accessible, require policy changes and investments in multidisciplinary research.

Abstract Background Cognitive impairment is common after stroke, and a large proportion of stroke patients will develop dementia. However, there have been few large prospective studies which have assessed cognition both prior to and after stroke. This study aims to determine the extent to which incident stroke impacts different domains of cognitive function in a longitudinal cohort of older community-dwelling individuals. Methods 19,114 older individuals without cardiovascular disease or major cognitive impairment were recruited and followed over a maximum 11 years. Stroke included ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke and was adjudicated by experts. Cognitive function was assessed regularly using Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS), Hopkins Verbal Learning Test–Revised (HVLT-R), Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), and Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT). Linear mixed models were used to investigate the change in cognition at the time of stroke and decline in cognitive trajectories following incident stroke. Results During a median follow-up period of 8.4 [IQR: 7.2, 9.6] years, 815 (4.3%) participants experienced a stroke. Over this time, there was a general decline observed in 3MS, HVLT-R delayed recall, and SDMT scores across participants. However, for individuals who experienced a stroke, there was a significantly greater decline across all cognitive domains immediately after the event immediately after the event (3MS: -1.03 [95%CI: -1.45, -0.60]; HVLT-R: -0.47 [-0.70, -0.24]; SDMT: -2.82 [-3.57, -2.08]; COWAT: -0.67 [-1.04, -0.29]) and a steeper long-term decline for three of these domains (3MS -0.62 [-0.88, -0.35]; COWAT: -0.30 [-0.46, -0.14]); HVLT-R: -0.12 [95%CI, -0.70, -0.24]). However individuals with stroke experienced no longer-term decline in SDMT compared to the rest of the participants. Conclusions These findings highlight the need for comprehensive neuropsychology assessments for ongoing monitoring of cognition following incident stroke; and potential early intervention.

Abstract Streptococcus dysgalactiae subspecies equisimilis (SDSE) and Streptococcus pyogenes share skin and throat niches with extensive genomic homology and horizontal gene transfer (HGT) possibly underlying shared disease phenotypes. It is unknown if cross-species transmission interaction occurs. Here, we conduct a genomic analysis of a longitudinal household survey in remote Australian First Nations communities for patterns of cross-species transmission interaction and HGT. Collected from 4547 person-consultations, we analyse 294 SDSE and 315 S. pyogenes genomes. We find SDSE and S. pyogenes transmission intersects extensively among households and show that patterns of co-occurrence and transmission links are consistent with independent transmission without inter-species interference. We identify at least one of three near-identical cross-species mobile genetic elements (MGEs) carrying antimicrobial resistance or streptodornase virulence genes in 55 (19%) SDSE and 23 (7%) S. pyogenes isolates. These findings demonstrate co-circulation of both pathogens and HGT in communities with a high burden of streptococcal disease, supporting a need to integrate SDSE and S. pyogenes surveillance and control efforts.

BackgroundEcological momentary assessment (EMA) is a measurement methodology that involves the repeated collection of real-time data on participants’ behavior and experience in their natural environment. While EMA allows researchers to gain valuable insights into dynamic behavioral processes, the need for frequent self-reporting can be burdensome and disruptive. Compliance with EMA protocols is important for accurate, unbiased sampling; yet, there is no “gold standard” for EMA study design to promote compliance. ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to use a factorial design to identify optimal study design factors, or combinations of factors, for achieving the highest completion rates for smartphone-based EMAs. MethodsParticipants recruited from across the United States were randomized to 1 of 2 levels on each of 5 design factors in a 2×2×2×2×2 design (32 conditions): factor 1—number of questions per EMA survey (15 vs 25); factor 2—number of EMAs per day (2 vs 4); factor 3—EMA prompting schedule (random vs fixed times); factor 4—payment type (US $1 paid per EMA vs payment based on the percentage of EMAs completed); and factor 5—EMA response scale type (ie, slider-type response scale vs Likert-type response scale; this is the only within-person factor; each participant was randomized to complete slider- or Likert-type questions for the first 14 days or second 14 days of the study period). All participants were asked to complete prompted EMAs for 28 days. The effect of each factor on EMA completion was examined, as well as the effects of factor interactions on EMA completion. Finally, relations between demographic and socioenvironmental factors and EMA completion were examined. ResultsParticipants (N=411) were aged 48.4 (SD 12.1) years; 75.7% (311/411) were female, 72.5% (298/411) were White, 18.0% (74/411) were Black or African American, 2.7% (11/411) were Asian, 1.5% (6/411) were American Indian or Alaska Native, 5.4% (22/411) belonged to more than one race, and 9.6% (38/396) were Hispanic/Latino. On average, participants completed 83.8% (28,948/34,552) of scheduled EMAs, and 96.6% (397/411) of participants completed the follow-up survey. Results indicated that there were no significant main effects of the design factors on compliance and no significant interactions. Analyses also indicated that older adults, those without a history of substance use problems, and those without current depression tended to complete more EMAs than their counterparts. No other demographic or socioenvironmental factors were related to EMA completion rates. Finally, the app was well liked (ie, system usability scale score=82.7), and there was a statistically significant positive association between liking the app and EMA compliance. ConclusionsStudy results have broad implications for developing best practices guidelines for future studies that use EMA methodologies. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov number NCT05194228; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05194228

MEMORY AND MIGRATION The Warburg Institute 1926-2024 Warburg Institute, London, until December 20 On December 12, 1933, the steamers Hermia and Jessica quietly left Hamburg--the German authorities had forbidden any [...]

BackgroundThe role of aspirin in reducing lipoprotein(a)-mediated atherothrombotic events in primary prevention is not established.ObjectivesThis study sought to assess whether low-dose aspirin benefits individuals with elevated plasma lipoprotein(a)-associated genotypes in the setting of primary prevention.MethodsThe study analyzed 12,815 genotyped individuals ≥70 years of age of European ancestry and without prior cardiovascular disease events enrolled in the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) randomized controlled trial of 100 mg/d aspirin. We defined lipoprotein(a)-associated genotypes using rs3798220-C carrier status and quintiles of a lipoprotein(a) genomic risk score (LPA-GRS). We tested for interaction between genotypes and aspirin allocation in Cox proportional hazards models for incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and clinically significant bleeding. We also examined associations in the aspirin and placebo arms of the trial separately.ResultsDuring a median 4.7 years (IQR: 3.6-5.7 years) of follow-up, 435 MACE occurred, with an interaction observed between rs3798220-C and aspirin allocation (P = 0.049). rs3798220-C carrier status was associated with increased MACE risk in the placebo group (HR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.11-3.24) but not in the aspirin group (HR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.17-1.70). High LPA-GRS (vs low) was associated with increased MACE risk in the placebo group (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.14-2.55), with risk attenuated in the aspirin group (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.90-2.23), but the interaction was not statistically significant. In all participants, aspirin reduced MACE by 1.7 events per 1,000 person-years and increased clinically significant bleeding by 1.7 events per 1,000 person-years. However, in the rs3798220-C and high LPA-GRS subgroups, aspirin reduced MACE by 11.4 and 3.3 events per 1,000 person-years respectively, without significantly increased bleeding risk.ConclusionsAspirin may benefit older individuals with elevated lipoprotein(a) genotypes in primary prevention.