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In South Korea, Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) collates greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. However, the settlement category lacks a clear definition of land use and activity data. This study proposed a method for examining the settlement spatial extent and constructing activity data to estimate GHG emissions and absorption as a pilot calculation, as well as to provide data for land use classification. Utilizing cadastral maps (CDMs), settlement spatial extents were determined, with settlements occupying approximately 11% of the total land area in 2019, or 9% excluding overlaps. Activity data for settlements were established through a sampling method and analysis of aerial orthoimages from 2000 and 2019. After removing overlaps with digital forest type maps and smart farm maps, settlement activity data covered approximately 18.47% based on CDMs, or 12.66% excluding overlaps. In 2019, CO2 emissions and absorptions were estimated at 622.16 ktCO2yr−1 based on CDMs and 242.16 ktCO2yr−1, excluding overlaps. To enhance GHG inventory calculation consistency and compliance with TACCC principles, clear spatial extents for settlements must be established. This entails constructing activity data and assessing GHG inventories accordingly. GHG inventory statistics should also inform future nationally determined contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

In South Korea, Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) collates greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. However, the settlement category lacks a clear definition of land use and activity data. This study proposed a method for examining the settlement spatial extent and constructing activity data to estimate GHG emissions and absorption as a pilot calculation, as well as to provide data for land use classification. Utilizing cadastral maps (CDMs), settlement spatial extents were determined, with settlements occupying approximately 11% of the total land area in 2019, or 9% excluding overlaps. Activity data for settlements were established through a sampling method and analysis of aerial orthoimages from 2000 and 2019. After removing overlaps with digital forest type maps and smart farm maps, settlement activity data covered approximately 18.47% based on CDMs, or 12.66% excluding overlaps. In 2019, CO2 emissions and absorptions were estimated at 622.16 ktCO2yr−1 based on CDMs and 242.16 ktCO2yr−1, excluding overlaps. To enhance GHG inventory calculation consistency and compliance with TACCC principles, clear spatial extents for settlements must be established. This entails constructing activity data and assessing GHG inventories accordingly. GHG inventory statistics should also inform future nationally determined contributions.

Climate change has an impact on agricultural activity because of its direct reliance on climate change. There are two types of relationships between agriculture and climate change, and they are extremely important, particularly for developing and underdeveloped or low-income countries, which rely heavily on agriculture for subsistence and lack adaptation infrastructure when compared to developed countries. Geographically high-latitude places that already have low temperatures might benefit from a prolonged growing season when temperatures rise due to climate change. GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane have an impact on agricultural lands. Gases have an impact on climate through emitting greenhouse gases. Emissions are mostly caused by tillage operations, fossil fuels, fertilized agricultural soils, and farm animal waste, and have a significant impact on the agriculture industry. Agriculture, on the other hand, might be a solution to climate change by lowering emissions and extensively implementing mitigation and adaptation measures. Best management approaches such as use of microbial inoculants to reduce fertilizer inputs, carbon sequestration and methane oxidation has potential to reduce greenhouse gases from agro-ecosystem.

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO _2 .yr ^−1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO _2 .yr ^−1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO _2 .yr ^−1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO _2 .yr ^−1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

Countries often lack methods for rapidly, but robustly determining greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions and their impacts comprehensively in the land use sector to support commitments to the Paris Agreement. We present rapid assessment methods based on easily available spatial data and adoption costs for mitigation related to crops, livestock and forestry to identify priority locations and actions. Applying the methods for the case of Mexico, we found a national mitigation potential of 87.88 million tons (Mt) CO2eq yr−1, comprising 7.91, 7.66 and 72.31 Mt CO2eq yr−1 from crops, livestock and forestry/agro-forestry, respectively. At the state level, mitigation potentials were highest in Chiapas (13 Mt CO2eq) followed by Campeche (8 Mt CO2eq). Eleven states had a land use mitigation potential between 2.5 to 6.5 Mt CO2eq, while other states had mitigation potentials of less than 2 Mt CO2eq. Mitigation options for crops and livestock could reduce 60% and 6% of the respective emissions. Mitigation options for forestry could reduce emissions by half. If properly implemented, mitigation potentials on cropland can be realized with net benefits, compared to livestock and forestry options, which involve net costs. The method supports science-based priority setting of mitigation actions by location and subsector and should help inform future policy and implementation of countries’ nationally determined contributions.

Countries often lack methods for rapidly, but robustly determining greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions and their impacts comprehensively in the land use sector to support commitments to the Paris Agreement. We present rapid assessment methods based on easily available spatial data and adoption costs for mitigation related to crops, livestock and forestry to identify priority locations and actions. Applying the methods for the case of Mexico, we found a national mitigation potential of 87.88 million tons (Mt) CO2eq yr−1, comprising 7.91, 7.66 and 72.31 Mt CO2eq yr−1 from crops, livestock and forestry/agro-forestry, respectively. At the state level, mitigation potentials were highest in Chiapas (13 Mt CO2eq) followed by Campeche (8 Mt CO2eq). Eleven states had a land use mitigation potential between 2.5 to 6.5 Mt CO2eq, while other states had mitigation potentials of less than 2 Mt CO2eq. Mitigation options for crops and livestock could reduce 60% and 6% of the respective emissions. Mitigation options for forestry could reduce emissions by half. If properly implemented, mitigation potentials on cropland can be realized with net benefits, compared to livestock and forestry options, which involve net costs. The method supports science-based priority setting of mitigation actions by location and subsector and should help inform future policy and implementation of countries' nationally determined contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nationally Determined Contribution Expert Tool (NEXT) is a greenhouse gas accounting tool developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to support annual environmental impact assessment for the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sector (AFOLU). It provides a 30-year time series of annual and cumulated estimates of carbon removal and greenhouse gas emission reductions from actions determined by Parties in their climate policies. NEXT was developed using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies, and estimates can be made using either the IPCC 2006 guidelines or the IPCC 2019 refinement to the IPCC 2006 which are both complemented with the IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement. The tool was designed to provide results that directly respond to the provisions of the Enhanced Transparency Framework and support the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) development as required by the modalities, procedures and guidelines. NEXT provides a detailed temporal series of results and a wide set of indicators, including the social value of carbon, enabling a comprehensive environmental and economic overview of climate actions in achieving mitigation targets. The tool helps countries to interpret, track and scale up ambition of their NDCs which could ultimately inform the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement in a harmonized way.

Land‐based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land‐based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing "bottom‐up" sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost‐effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land‐based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost‐effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost‐effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost‐effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand‐side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand‐side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co‐benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio‐cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land‐based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near‐term, low‐cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land‐based measures available, their potential co‐benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country‐specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement.

The processes countries use to revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UNFCCC's Paris Agreement will be key to ensure that their pledges lead to effective climate change policy. In many developing countries, the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is central to their NDCs. For this study, a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve was used to review Vietnam's mitigation pledges pertaining to the AFOLU sector. We conclude that Vietnam has the potential to increase its NDC pledges, especially in the land use sector and through negative cost mitigation measures including water techniques for rice cultivation, agroforestry, and management of livestock diets and manure. While the MAC curve alone is insufficient to prioritize policy options, this study highlights the fundamental importance of continuous data improvement and refinement for monitoring NDC actions and ultimately achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.

It is widely known that tropical peatlands, including peat swamp forests (PSFs), provide numerous ecosystem services in both spatial and temporal dimensions. These include their role as large stores for organic carbon, which when not managed well could be released as carbon dioxide and methane, accelerating climate warming. Massive destruction and conversion of peatlands occur at an alarming rate in some regions. We hope that the lessons learned from those regions currently under siege from conversion can inform other regions that are at the precipice of mass conversion to agriculture. Much has been learned about high latitude, northern hemisphere peatlands but less is known about tropical peatlands. We collate, analyze, and synthesize the evidence revealed from the set of articles in this special issue. This special issue is a step forward, presenting new information generated from a considerable amount of field data collected from peatlands across the tropics in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The hard data collected using comparable scientific methodologies are analyzed and compared with existing published data to form a larger dataset as scientific evidence. The synthesis is then interpreted to generate new knowledge to inform the policy community on how to strategize the sustainable management of tropical peatlands. Carbon (C) stocks in tropical peatland ecosystems can be as large as 3000 Mg C ha−1, but the rate of loss is also phenomenal, causing substantial emissions of greenhouse gases of more than 20 Mg C ha−1 year−1. These losses have mainly taken place in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, where peatland development for oil palm and pulpwood has accelerated over the past few decades. Although peatlands in the Amazon and Congo Basin are less developed, it is possible that the same unsustainable pathway would be followed in these regions, if lessons from the dire situation in Southeast Asia are not learned. Strong policies to halt further loss of tropical peatlands may be drawn up and combined with incentives that promote a global agenda under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France, Agreement. However, we also propose a framework to address national and local agendas that can be implemented under the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by balancing conversion/development and conservation/restoration objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

Even though enormous expectations for greenhouse gas mitigation in the land use sector exist at the same time worries about potential implications for sustainable development have been raised as many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are closely tied to developments in the sector. Here we assess the implications of achieving selected key SDG indicators for Zero Hunger, Clean Water and Sanitation, Responsible Consumption and Production, and Life on Land on the land-based climate change mitigation potential. We find that protecting highly biodiverse ecosystems has profound impacts on biomass potentials (−30% at >12 US dollar per gigajoule) while other SDGs mainly affect greenhouse gas abatement potentials. Achieving SDGs delivers synergies with greenhouse gas abatement and may even in the absence of additional mitigation policies allow to realize up to 25% of the expected greenhouse gas abatement from land use required to stay on track with the 1.5 °C target until 2050. Future land use mitigation policies should consider and take advantage of these synergies across SDGs.

South Africa is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and as such is required to report on Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Energy, Transport, Waste and the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors every two years in national inventories. The AFOLU sector is unique in that it comprises both sources and sinks for GHGs. Emissions from the AFOLU sector are estimated to contribute a quarter of the total global greenhouse gas emissions. GHG emissions sources from agriculture include enteric fermentation; manure management; manure deposits on pastures, and soil fertilization. Emissions sources from Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) include anthropogenic land use activities such as: management of croplands, forests and grasslands and changes in land use cover (the conversion of one land use to another). South Africa has improved the quantification of AFOLU emissions and the understanding of the dynamic relationship between sinks and sources over the past decade through projects such as the 2010 GHG Inventory, the Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), and the National Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Assessment (NTCSA). These projects highlight key mitigation opportunities in South Africa and discuss their potentials. The problem remains that South Africa does not have an emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector against which the mitigation potentials can be measured. The AFOLU sector as a result is often excluded from future emission projections, giving an incomplete picture of South Africa’s mitigation potential. The purpose of this project was to develop a robust GHG emissions baseline for the AFOLU sector which will enable South Africa to project emissions into the future and demonstrate its contribution towards the global goal of reducing emissions.

Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat) soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude) too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils.

The “Allometric, Biomass and Carbon factors” database (ABC factors database) was designed to facilitate the estimation of the biomass carbon stocks of forests in order to support the development and the verification of greenhouse gas inventories in the LULUCF sector (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry). The database contains several types of expansion, conversion and combined factors, by various tree species or species groups that can be used to calculate biomass or carbon of forests of Eurasian region from proxy variables (e.g., tree volume) that may come from forest inventories. In addition to the factors, and depending on the information that was available in the cited source, the database indicates: (1) the biomass compartments involved when the factor was developed; and (2) the possible applicability of the factor, e.g. by country or by ecological regions. The applicability of the factors is either suggested by the source itself, or the type of source (e.g. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report), or was based on the expert judgement by the compilers of the database. Finally, in order to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate of the data, the web-based interface provides the possibility to compare several factors that may come from different sources. The ABC factors database is freely available at the URL: http://afoludata.jrc.it/data_fs.cfm, in the web site AFOLU-DATA, funded and hosted by the Joint Research Centre (European Commission, DG-JRC).

Summary As countries experience economic growth and choose among available development pathways, they are in a favorable position to adopt natural resource use technologies and production practices that favor efficient use of inputs, healthy soils, and ecosystems. Current emphasis on increasing resilience to climate change and reducing agricultural greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions strengthens the support for sustainable agricultural production. In fact, reducing losses in soil fertility, reclaiming degraded lands, and promoting synergistic interaction between crop production and forests are generally seen as good climate change policies. In order for decision-makers to develop long-term policies that address these issues, they must have tools at their disposal that evaluate trade-offs, opportunities, and repercussions of the options considered. In this paper, the authors combine and reconcile the output of three models widely accessible to the public to analyze the impacts of policies that target emission reduction in the agricultural sector. We present an application to Colombia which reveals the importance of considering the full scope of interactions among the various land uses. Results indicate that investments in increasing the efficiency and productivity of the livestock sector and reducing land allocated to pasture are preferable to policies that target deforestation alone or target a reduction of emissions in crop production. Investments in livestock productivity and land-carrying capacity would reduce deforestation and provide sufficient gains in carbon stock to offset greater emissions from increased crop production while generating higher revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emissions must be cut by 41-72 % below 2010 levels by 2050 for a likely chance of containing the global mean temperature increase to 2°C. The AFOLU sector (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use) roughly contributes with a quarter (~ 10-12 PgCO2e.yr-1) of the net anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation, fire, wood harvesting, and agricultural emissions including croplands, paddy rice and livestock. In spite of the importance of this sector, it is unclear where are the regions in the planet with AFOLU emissions hotspots, and how uncertain these emissions are. Here we present a novel spatially comparable dataset containing annual mean estimates of gross AFOLU emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O), associated uncertainties, and leading emission sources, in a spatially disaggregated manner (0.5°), for the tropics, for the period 2000-2005. Our data highlight: i) the existence of AFOLU emissions hotspots on all continents, with particular importance of evergreen rainforest deforestation in Central and South America, fire in dry forests in Africa, and both peatland emissions and agriculture in Asia; ii) a predominant contribution of forests and CO2 to the total AFOLU emissions (75 %) and to their uncertainties (98 %), iii) higher gross fluxes from forests coincide with higher uncertainties, making agricultural hotspots more appealing for effective mitigation action, and iv) a lower contribution of non-CO2 agricultural emissions to the total gross budget (ca. 25 %) with livestock (15.5 %) and rice (7 %) leading the emissions. Gross AFOLU tropical emissions 8.2 (5.5-12.2) were in the range of other databases 8.4 and 8.0 PgCO2e.yr-1 (FAOSTAT and EDGAR respectively), but we offer a spatially detailed benchmark for monitoring progress on reducing emissions from the land sector in the tropics. The location of the AFOLU hotspots of emissions and data on their associated uncertainties, will assist national policy makers, investors and other decision-makers who seek to understand the mitigation potential of the AFOLU sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regard to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses ( AFOLU), including global emission updates to 2012. Using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for Policy Makers, our analyses point to a down-revision of global AFOLU shares of total anthropogenic emissions, while providing important additional information on subsectoral trends. Our findings confirm that the share of AFOLU emissions to the anthropogenic total declined over time. They indicate a decadal average of 28.7 ± 1.5% in the 1990s and 23.6 ± 2.1% in the 2000s and an annual value of 21.2 ± 1.5% in 2010. The IPCC AR5 had indicated a 24% share in 2010. In contrast to previous decades, when emissions from land use (land use, land use change and forestry, including deforestation) were significantly larger than those from agriculture (crop and livestock production), in 2010 agriculture was the larger component, contributing 11.2 ± 0.4% of total GHG emissions, compared to 10.0 ± 1.2% of the land use sector. Deforestation was responsible for only 8% of total anthropogenic emissions in 2010, compared to 12% in the 1990s. Since 2010, the last year assessed by the IPCC AR5, new FAO estimates indicate that land use emissions have remained stable, at about 4.8 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. Emissions minus removals have also remained stable, at 3.2 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. By contrast, agriculture emissions have continued to grow, at roughly 1% annually, and remained larger than the land use sector, reaching 5.4 Gt CO2 eq yr−1 in 2012. These results are useful to further inform the current climate policy debate on land use, suggesting that more efforts and resources should be directed to further explore options for mitigation in agriculture, much in line with the large efforts devoted to REDD+ in the past decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110–285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80–300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5 °C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land would allow reducing the implied calorie loss by 65% when sticking to the initially estimated land use mitigation requirements, thereby limiting the impact on undernourishment to 20–75 million people, and storing significant amounts of carbon in soils.

While bioenergy plays a key role in strategies for increasing renewable energy deployment, studies assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forest bioenergy systems have identified a potential trade-off of the system with forest carbon stocks. Of particular importance to national GHG inventories is how trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and bioenergy production are accounted for within the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector under current and future international climate change mitigation agreements. Through a case study of electricity produced using wood pellets from harvested forest stands in Ontario, Canada, this study assesses the implications of forest carbon accounting approaches on net emissions attributable to pellets produced for domestic use or export. Particular emphasis is placed on the forest management reference level (FMRL) method, as it will be employed by most Annex I nations in the next Kyoto Protocol Commitment Period. While bioenergy production is found to reduce forest carbon sequestration, under the FMRL approach this trade-off may not be accounted for and thus not incur an accountable AFOLU-related emission, provided that total forest harvest remains at or below that defined under the FMRL baseline. In contrast, accounting for forest carbon trade-offs associated with harvest for bioenergy results in an increase in net GHG emissions (AFOLU and life cycle emissions) lasting 37 or 90 years (if displacing coal or natural gas combined cycle generation, respectively). AFOLU emissions calculated using the Gross-Net approach are dominated by legacy effects of past management and natural disturbance, indicating near-term net forest carbon increase but longer-term reduction in forest carbon stocks. Export of wood pellets to EU markets does not greatly affect the total life cycle GHG emissions of wood pellets. However, pellet exporting countries risk creating a considerable GHG emissions burden, as they are responsible for AFOLU and bioenergy production emissions but do not receive credit for pellets displacing fossil fuel-related GHG emissions. Countries producing bioenergy from forest biomass, whether for domestic use or for export, should carefully consider potential implications of alternate forest carbon accounting methods to ensure that potential bioenergy pathways can contribute to GHG emissions reduction targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Regional GHG assessment enables to identify the most efficient mitigation options. [•] GHG assessments should result in promoting operational mitigation projects. [•] Guadeloupe should stop deforestation and improve its beef production systems. [•] GHG inventories need to consider production level and food autonomy issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas ( GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6 Gt CO2-eq. yr−1) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3 Gt CO2-eq. yr−1 at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ t CO2-eq. yr−1), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the carbon stocks of forests of Turkey were examined by taking the national forest inventory completed in 2004 as a basis. Furthermore, the annual accumulations of carbon in the above- and below-ground biomass of Turkey were also investigated according to the gain-loss methods of "Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use" (AFOLU), published in 2006. The results of estimates showed that the total stock in all carbon pools (above- and below-ground, dead wood, litter, and soil) in the forests of Turkey was 2251.26 Tg C in 2004. Of that total carbon stock, 74.78% was in soil, 21.32% in living tree biomass, and 3.90% in litter and dead wood. It was also found that the annual biomass carbon accumulation increased from 2.20 Tg C year-1 in 1990 to 6.82 Tg C year-1 in 2005 (an average increase of 4.50 Tg C year-1), according to the gain-loss method. In the productive forests of Turkey, the carbon density in above- and below-ground biomass is 41.66 Mg ha-1, and this is slightly lower than that in the forests of Europe, which is 43.90 Mg ha-1 according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UN-ECE/FAO). The forests in Turkey absorbed 7.99% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which was 312.31 Tg CO2 year-1 in 2005. In order to increase the amount of carbon accumulated in the forest biomass of Turkey, first of all, the illegal cuttings need to be reduced. Furthermore, the degraded forests, making up about half of the forest area in Turkey, must be rehabilitated, and to increase carbon stock, the concept of carbon management must be adapted to the forestry sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat) soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude) too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Parties to the Kyoto Protocol and/or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to account for their direct human-induced carbon emissions and removals including those from forestry and other land use related activities. In most European countries, the forestry related greenhouse gas inventories are largely or exclusively based on converting tree volume data from national forest inventories to biomass using biomass conversion and expansion factors (BCEFs). However, country specific data for many species are often lacking, which considerably increases the uncertainties of the greenhouse gas inventories. The focus of this research was to develop, using internationally published datasets that cover a large geographical area, an extended set of generalized curves of such biomass expansion factors for several species or species groups by age, growing stock and site index. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The capacity to partition natural, indirect, and direct human-induced effects on terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is necessary to be able to predict future terrestrial C dynamics and thus their influence on atmospheric CO2 growth. However, it will take a number of years before we can better attribute quantitative estimates of the contribution of various C processes to the net C balance. In a policy context, factoring out natural and indirect human-induced effects on C sources and sinks from the direct human-induced influences, is seen as a requirement of a C accounting approach that establishes a clear and unambiguous connection between human activities and the assignment of C credits and debits. We present options for factoring out various groups of influences including climate variability, CO2 and N fertilization, and legacies from forest management. These are: (i) selecting longer accounting or measurement periods to reduce the effects of inter-annual variability; (ii) correction of national inventories for inter-annual variability; (iii) use of activity-based accounting and C response curves; (iv) use of baseline scenarios or benchmarks at the national level; (v) stratification of the landscape into units with distinct average C stocks. Other, more sophisticated modeling approaches (e.g., demographic models in combination with forest inventories; process-based models) are possible options for future C accounting systems but their complexity and data requirements make their present adoption more difficult in an inclusive international C accounting system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Many pathways have been proposed for including land use in a post-2012 climate agreement. Several involve new accounting structures which are quite different from the rules established in the Marrakech Accords and related decisions. However, a mechanism based largely on the structure agreed for the first commitment period also has its benefits. This paper discusses the weaknesses of the current system of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting in the Kyoto Protocol''s first commitment period, and proposes a mechanism based on that existing structure, but with modifications to address the weaknesses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The current framework through which greenhouse gas emissions and removals in the land use sector are accounted under the Kyoto Protocol has several problems. They include a complex structure, onerous monitoring and reporting requirements, and potential for omission of some important fluxes. One solution that may overcome some of these problems is to include all lands and associated processes within a country''s jurisdiction, rather than restrict accounting to specific nominated land categories or activities. Ideally, the accounting approach should cover all significant biospheric sources and sinks, avoid biased or unbalanced accounting, avoid leakage and require no arbitrary adjustments to remedy unintended consequences. Furthermore, accounting should focus on the direct human-induced component of biospheric emissions/removals so that debits/credits can be allocated equitably and provide appropriate incentives to adopt land-use management options with beneficial outcomes for the atmosphere. This paper focuses on biospheric emissions and removals resulting from carbon stock changes. It considers four alternative accounting options that include all land areas: Gross-Net Accounting, Net-Net Accounting, Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines and the Average Carbon Stocks approach. Each option is described, and assessed with respect to defined criteria for effectiveness. Gross-Net Accounting and Net-Net Accounting do not adequately distinguish the anthropogenic component of carbon-stock changes from indirect and natural effects, so large undeserved credits or debits could be created. Under Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines, countries’ projected emissions and removals during the commitment period would be taken into account in the negotiation of emissions targets. In the commitment period, countries would then gain credits/debits for biospheric removals/emissions. Difficulties with this approach would lie in reaching agreed baselines for emissions and removals for individual countries, and, if desired, in factoring out residual effects of natural variability on emissions/removals. Under the Average Carbon Stocks approach, debits/credits for changes in land use or management practices would be based on the changes in long-term average carbon stocks associated with changes in specific land use and management regimes. This approach thereby directly identifies the anthropogenic component, and assigns debits and credits accordingly. It may prove problematic, however, for countries to accept long-term averages rather than observable realised carbon-stock changes as the basis for accounting. Thus, none of the options is without its drawbacks, but Net Accounting with Negotiated Baselines and the Average Carbon Stocks approach could potentially be used as the basis of developing a future ‘all lands’ accounting framework. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Peatlands are both responding to and influencing climate change. While numerous studies on peatland carbon dynamics have been published in boreal and temperate regions for decades, a much smaller yet growing body of scientific articles related to tropical peatlands has recently been published, including from previously overlooked regions such as the Amazonian and Congo basins. The recent recognition of tropical peatlands as valuable ecosystems because of the organic carbon they accumulate in their water-saturated soils has occurred after most of them have been drained and degraded in Southeast Asia. Under disturbed conditions, their natural carbon storage function is shifted to an additional carbon source to the atmosphere. Understanding the effect of land-use change and management practices on peatlands can shed light on the driving variables that influence carbon emissions and can model the magnitude of emissions in future degraded peatlands. This is of primary importance as other peatland-covered regions in the tropics are at risk of land-use and land-cover changes. A systematic review that synthesizes the general understanding of tropical peatland carbon dynamics based on the published literature is much needed to guide future research directions on this topic. Moreover, previous studies of biogeochemical cycling in tropical peatlands have largely focused on terrestrial stocks and fluxes with little attention given to document lateral and downstream aquatic export through natural and artificial drainage channels. Here, we present a systematic review protocol to describe terrestrial and aquatic carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands and identify the influence of land-use change on carbon exchange. We described a set of literature search and screening steps that lay the groundwork for a future synthesis on tropical peatlands carbon cycling. Such an evidence-based synthesis using a systematic review approach will help provide the research community and policymakers with consistent science-based guidelines to set and monitor emissions reduction targets as part of the forestry and land-use sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This letter is intended to help potential users select the most appropriate calculator for a landscape-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment of activities for agriculture and forestry. Eighteen calculators were assessed. These calculators were designed for different aims and to be used in different geographical areas and they use slightly different accounting methodologies. The classification proposed is based on the main aim of the assessment: raising awareness, reporting, project evaluation or product assessment. When the aims have been clearly formulated, the most suitable calculator can be selected from the comparison tables, taking account of the geographical area and the scope of the calculation as well as the time and skills required for the calculation. The main issues for interpreting GHG assessments are discussed, highlighting the difficulty of comparing the results obtained from different calculators, mainly owing to differences in scope, calculation methods and reporting units. A major problem is the poor accounting for land use change; the calculators are usually able to account satisfactorily for other emission sources. One of the main challenges at landscape-scale level is to produce a realistic assessment of the various production systems as the uncertainty levels are very high. The results should always give some indication of the link between GHG emissions and the productivity of the area, although no single indicator is able to encompass all the services produced by agriculture and forestry (e.g. food, goods, landscape value and revenue).

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, including crop and livestock production, forestry and associated land use changes, are responsible for a significant fraction of anthropogenic emissions, up to 30% according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while emissions from fossil fuels are updated yearly and by multiple sources—including national-level statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA)—no comparable efforts for reporting global statistics for agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions exist: the latest complete assessment was the 2007 IPCC report, based on 2005 emission data. This gap is critical for several reasons. First, potentially large climate funding could be linked in coming decades to more precise estimates of emissions and mitigation potentials. For many developing countries, and especially the least developed ones, this requires improved assessments of AFOLU emissions. Second, growth in global emissions from fossil fuels has outpaced that from AFOLU during every decade of the period 1961–2010, so the relative contribution of the latter to total climate forcing has diminished over time, with a need for regular updates. We present results from a new GHG database developed at FAO, providing a complete and coherent time series of emission statistics over a reference period 1961–2010, at country level, based on FAOSTAT activity data and IPCC Tier 1 methodology. We discuss results at global and regional level, focusing on trends in the agriculture sector and net deforestation. Our results complement those available from the IPCC, extending trend analysis to a longer historical period and, critically, beyond 2005 to more recent years. In particular, from 2000 to 2010, we find that agricultural emissions increased by 1.1% annually, reaching 4.6 Gt CO _2 yr ^−1 in 2010 (up to 5.4–5.8 Gt CO _2 yr ^−1 with emissions from biomass burning and organic soils included). Over the same decade 2000–2010, the ratio of agriculture to fossil fuel emissions has decreased, from 17.2% to 13.7%, and the decrease is even greater for the ratio of net deforestation to fossil fuel emissions: from 19.1% to 10.1%. In fact, in the year 2000, emissions from agriculture have been consistently larger—about 1.2 Gt CO _2 yr ^−1 in 2010—than those from net deforestation.

Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) represent 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the AFOLU sector greenhouse gases must be dramatically reduced and eventually transformed to net negative CO 2 e within this century. The decarbonisation choices will have significant environmental, social and economic impacts, yet few analytical frameworks exist able to account holistically for AFOLU mitigation strategies and their sustainable development impacts in a way that combines advantages of global and national approaches to decarbonisation pathways. This paper proposes a pathway design framework for AFOLU decarbonisation strategies that can help governments set targets across four types of levers (increasing sequestration; improving the emissions efficiency of agriculture; incentivising dietary changes; and displacing fossil fuels with bioenergy) and help them navigate potential synergies and trade-offs with sustainable development objectives (notably food security, biodiversity preservation, poverty alleviation and job creation), in a way that facilitates co-construction and discussion with main stakeholders. • Key drivers of AFOLU decarbonisation include enhancing carbon sequestration, increasing bioenergy production, reducing emission intensity of agriculture and shifting diets. • The AFOLU transformation has trade-off and synergies with SDGs, including food security, biodiversity, and poverty and jobs. • A comprehensive AFOLU pathway must integrate all key drivers and key SDGs to capture the systemic elements of the sector. • We propose a method for designingcomprehensive AFOLU pathways, integrating all key drivers and key SDGs. • The pathway design framework emphasises co-construction and dialogue with key stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector produces approximately 10% of the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and growing demands for food to meet the needs of an increasing population make it difficult to mitigate these emissions. This study investigated historical (1911–2018) nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from applications of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertiliser for agricultural purposes and crop residues retained in the fields post-harvest in South Africa. The aim was to develop trends of different sources of these emissions to guide national mitigation plans. Disaggregation of the emissions from key crops were developed using area planted, N application rates and residues retained in the fields. N 2 O intensities were calculated to establish a relationship between agricultural emissions and socio-economic conditions. Total emissions from N and crop residues were 7.3 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions in 2018 and N 2 O from N fertiliser was approximately 3.0 Mt. Arrival of subsidised synthetic N in the 1950s grew the emissions significantly until they peaked in the 1980s when the support was terminated. N 2 O emissions per capita are gradually decreasing with time which indicates an unsustainable situation of population growing faster than its ability to produce food for itself. Less emissions per kilocalorie further indicate that crop emissions are not carbon intensive. • Policies and climate variability can influence emissions. • Crop residues retained in the fields are main sources of crop emissions. • Increased yields enhance emissions from crop residues. • Population growth is faster than rate of food production in South Africa. • Mitigating agricultural emissions needs strong policy on population growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]