1. South East Europe, No. 9, Spring 2016 : Rebalancing for Stronger Growth
- Author
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World Bank Group
- Subjects
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ,INVESTMENT ,PRIVATE INVESTMENT ,AMOUNT OF CAPITAL ,INFLATIONARY PRESSURES ,HOUSEHOLD INCOMES ,DEPOSIT ,BOND YIELDS ,TAX CREDITS ,INFLATION ,EMERGING MARKET ,FISCAL DEFICIT ,BROAD MONEY ,INVESTMENTS ,EXPORT GROWTH ,STOCK ,CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS ,RETURNS ,CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ,POVERTY ,PENSION ,INVESTORS ,COLLATERAL ,CREDIT GROWTH ,BONDS ,SHARES ,FINANCIAL MARKET ,DEBT RATIOS ,PUBLIC FINANCES ,NON-PERFORMING LOANS ,PUBLIC SPENDING ,FINANCIAL SYSTEMS ,GOVERNMENT BUDGET ,TRANSPARENCY ,EMERGING MARKETS ,FINANCIAL MARKETS ,NPL ,PENSIONS ,DEBT LEVELS ,BORROWERS ,DEPOSITS ,REMITTANCE ,MARKETS ,PROFIT ,GLOBAL ECONOMY ,CORPORATE GOVERNANCE ,CREDIT RATINGS ,SWAPS ,BASIS POINTS ,BALANCE SHEET ,POST-CRISIS PERIOD ,MONETARY POLICY ,TAX COLLECTIONS ,GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ,LIQUIDITY ,FISCAL DEFICITS ,INTEREST RATES ,CREDIT EXPANSION ,DEBT SOURCE ,PUBLIC DEBT ,CREDIT RISK ,ARREARS ,CONTINGENT LIABILITIES ,GUARANTEES ,MARKET ,GOVERNMENT POLICIES ,DOMESTIC CREDIT ,PROPERTY ,BUDGET DEFICIT ,BANKING SYSTEMS ,FIXED CAPITAL ,PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT ,DEPOSIT MOBILIZATION ,BOND FINANCING ,INVESTMENT PROJECTS ,FOREIGN BANK ,CURRENCIES ,MARKET DEPTH ,TRADE BALANCE ,PORTFOLIO ,BUDGETS ,FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES ,GOVERNMENT REVENUES ,SECURITY ,LOCAL GOVERNMENT ,CAPITAL MARKETS ,COLLECTION PROCESSES ,AMORTIZATION ,CAPITAL STOCK ,ACCESS TO LOANS ,FISCAL POLICY ,FINANCIAL SYSTEM ,JUDICIAL REFORM ,EXCHANGE RATE ,INVESTMENT DECISIONS ,GOOD ,EQUIPMENT ,TELECOMMUNICATIONS ,REVENUE ,CURRENCY ,ECONOMIC POLICIES ,BOND ,PRIVATE CREDIT ,DIRECT INVESTMENT ,INTERNATIONAL MARKET ,EXTERNAL BORROWING ,EMERGING MARKET BONDS ,LOAN ,COMMODITY PRICES ,PUBLIC FINANCE ,NONPERFORMING LOANS ,TRADE BALANCES ,FUTURE ,LABOR MARKETS ,CENTRAL BANKS ,ISSUANCE ,CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS ,FOREIGN INVESTMENT ,CAPITAL STOCKS ,CONTRACTS ,INVESTOR ,NATIONAL BANKS ,INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS ,TRADING ,SUPERVISORY AUTHORITIES ,CURRENCY MISMATCHES ,ACCUMULATION OF DEBT ,INCOME GROWTH ,BUDGETING ,LENDING REQUIREMENTS ,CAPITAL FORMATION ,LOCAL ECONOMY ,T-BILL ,REVENUES ,PUBLIC INVESTMENT ,DEFICIT ,INVESTMENT SPENDING ,LOCAL CURRENCY ,EXPORT PERFORMANCE ,BANK POLICY ,CAPITAL FLOWS ,VALUATION ,TAX ,INVENTORY ,BUDGET ,EXCHANGE RATES ,GOVERNMENT DEBT ,PRIVATE INVESTMENTS ,BANKING UNION ,STOCKS ,RISK AVERSION ,BANK LENDING ,LENDING ,DOMESTIC CAPITAL ,ASSET QUALITY ,PUBLIC INVESTMENTS ,FINANCIAL CRISIS ,BANK BALANCE SHEETS ,SOVEREIGN BONDS ,BALANCE SHEETS ,OPTIONS ,GUARANTEE ,RESERVES ,GOODS ,MARKET REFORMS ,LOANS ,FOREIGN FINANCING ,SETTLEMENT ,TAX COLLECTION ,LIVING STANDARDS ,FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ,PAYMENT SYSTEMS ,FINANCE ,EXPORTERS ,INTERNATIONAL MARKETS ,INTEREST COSTS ,EXTERNAL DEBT ,FUTURES ,LIABILITIES ,LABOR MARKET ,INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL ,EXTERNAL DEFICITS ,CONSUMER LOANS ,COMPLIANCE COSTS ,DEBT ,BANKING SECTOR ,DURABLE ,CAPITAL ADEQUACY ,MONETARY POLICIES ,CENTRAL BANK ,RETURN ,NATIONAL BANK ,POLICY RESPONSES ,INVESTMENT CLIMATE ,CAPITAL MARKET ,BANKING REGULATION ,BANK REGULATION ,CDS ,DEFICITS ,FOREIGN EXCHANGE ,LOCAL CURRENCIES ,EXCHANGE ,ACCOUNTING ,PORTFOLIOS ,FINANCES ,CAPITAL GROWTH ,STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS ,REMITTANCES ,TARIFFS ,INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ,REPAYMENTS ,LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ,OIL PRICES ,HUMAN CAPITAL ,INSURANCE ,TURNOVER ,TAXES ,EQUITY ,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ,TREASURY ,EUROBOND ,MARKET CONDITIONS ,BASIS POINT ,PENSION SYSTEMS ,HUMAN RESOURCES ,HOUSEHOLD INCOME ,LOCAL BANKS ,GOVERNMENT SPENDING ,PROFITS ,PENSION REFORMS ,REFERENDUM ,EXPENDITURES ,COMMERCIAL BANKS ,INTERNATIONAL BANK ,CONTRACT ,MONETARY FUND ,EQUITY MARKETS ,GOVERNMENT DEFICIT ,INTEREST ,BANK ASSETS ,CAPITAL INFLOWS ,BANK BORROWERS ,CHECKS ,SHARE ,CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ,INTEREST RATE ,FOREIGN CURRENCY ,BENCHMARK YIELDS ,LEVEL PLAYING FIELD ,EXPENDITURE - Abstract
Growth in the six South East European countries (SEE6) rebounded to 2.1 percent in 2015, as investment revived. The SEE6 region is not only growing but also rebalancing to more durable sources of growth. While higher growth in 2015 brought new jobs in the private sector, and helped poverty reduction to resume, unemployment is still entrenched. In 2015, fiscal deficits continued to narrow in all SEE6 countries except Montenegro. With inflation at historic lows, accommodative monetary policy supported growth, and credit to the economy slowly began to grow. The near-term baseline outlook for the region is positive. Fiscal and current account deficits must decline further to support growth. Sustaining the nascent rebalancing requires unlocking the growth potential of the SEE6 economics by reversing productivity dynamics that have been deteriorating since 2008. The agenda for reducing the structural rigidities that impede growth is broad based and centered on five pillars: eliminate disincentives and barriers to formal; employment; improve the business climate and governance; reduce the size of government while improving quality of service delivery; deepen trade and financial integration; and ensure that natural resource use is sustainable.
- Published
- 2016