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Relevant energy questions have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic shock leads to emissions’ reductions consistent with the rates of decrease required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Those unforeseen drastic reductions in emissions are temporary as long as they do not involve structural changes. However, the COVID-19 consequences and the subsequent policy response will affect the economy for decades. Focusing on the EU, this discussion article argues how recovery plans are an opportunity to deepen the way towards a low-carbon economy, improving at the same time employment, health, and equity and the role of modelling tools. Long-term alignment with the low-carbon path and the development of a resilient transition towards renewable sources should guide instruments and policies, conditioning aid to energy-intensive sectors such as transport, tourism, and the automotive industry. However, the potential dangers of short-termism and carbon leakage persist. The current energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling tools are precious to widen the scope and deal with these complex problems. The scientific community has to assess disparate, non-equilibrium, and non-ordinary scenarios, such as sectors and countries lockdowns, drastic changes in consumption patterns, significant investments in renewable energies, and disruptive technologies and incorporate uncertainty analysis. All these instruments will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization options and potential consequences on employment, income distribution, and vulnerability. © 2021

The number of input-output assessments focused on energy has grown considerably in the last years. Many of these assessments combine data from multi-regional input-output (MRIO) databases with energy extensions that completely or partially depict the different stages through which energy products are supplied or used in the economy. The improper use of some energy extensions can lead to double accounting of some energy flows, but the frequency with which this happens and the potential impact on the results are unknown. Based on a literature review, we estimate that around a quarter of the MRIO-based energy assessments reviewed incurred into double accounting. Using the EXIOBASE MRIO database, we also analyse the effects of double accounting in the absolute values and rankings of different countries and products energy footprints. Building on the insights provided by our analysis, we offer a set of key recommendations to MRIO users to avoid the double accounting problem in the future. Likewise, we conclude that the harmonisation of the energy data across MRIO databases led by experts could simplify the choices of the data users until the provision of official energy extensions by statistical offices becomes a widespread practice. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd

WILIAM (Within Limit Integrated Assessment Model) is a global multiregional IAM that combines economic, social, demographic, environmental, energy and material related aspects into one system dynamics model. It aims to provide stakeholders with an open source, welldocumented model to assess the feasibility, effectiveness, costs and impacts of different sustainability policy options. The adequate representation of energy production is key to assess future sustainability pathways. The main function of the developed energy module is to estimate the primary energy requirements and related GHG emissions for satisfying the economic demand. This goal was achieved by 7 major sub-modules: (1) End-use: translates the economic demand into final energy demand through a hybrid approach combining bottom-up with energy intensities for different sectors. (2) Energy transformation: maps the entire energy conversion chain from final to primary energy, including intermediary energy commodities and an allocation function for power plant utilization. (3) Energy capacity: keeps track of the current power plant capacity stock, decommissioning of expired capacities, as well as the build-up of new capacities. An allocation function for choosing the suitable technology types for new capacities stands at the core of this sub-module. (4) Computation of the EROI of green technologies (5) Variability and storage: keeps track of sub-annual time scale effects on annual energy balances depending on the current power system setup (DSM, Storage, sector coupling). (6) Consideration of techno-sustainable potentials of RES considering geographical, resource and Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) constraints. (7) Computation of the energy-related GHG emissions.

Despite the consensus that green taxation is an effective way to accelerate the decarbonization of economies, few countries are implementing ambitious tax reforms. This is the case of diesel for transport in Spain. The arguments against boosting the diesel tax stressed its potential adverse effects on the economy and society, accusing it of being a regressive policy. In this paper, we shed light on the distributional impact of raising the excise tax on diesel to the same level as on gasoline for final consumers in Spain and various compensation schemes jointly designed with several stakeholders. The results confirm that raising the diesel tax without offsets would have slightly regressive effects and that rural and middle-income households would bear the brunt of the increase. However, the effects become progressive when the co-designed offsetting schemes are implemented. These findings may help decision-makers in achieving a just, acceptable, and politically viable energy transition. © 2023 The Authors

Current ozone (O3) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010 to 2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0 6.0, 9.8 18.8, 6.7 10.6 and 10.4 12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O3. When O3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8 B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2 B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2 B (China). © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions. © 2020 Elsevier B.V., This work was funded with the support from the Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation project (IDRC 107642) under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) program with financial support from the Department for International Development, UK Government (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada

n a tele-coupled and globalized World, understanding the links between demand for wood products and land use is becoming challenging. World's economies are increasingly open and interconnected, and international trade flows of wood products are continuously growing. The increasing resource consumption of humanity is increasingly dependent on international trade. In this context, the study of forest products demand from a global-multi-regional perspective emerges as a critical issue to achieve the goal of sustainable consumption and production. In this paper, we introduce a novel accounting framework for assessing the forest footprint of nations. The method combines Multi-regional Input-Output techniques and detailed data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on production, consumption and bilateral trade of primary, intermediate and final wood products, advancing with respect to existing approaches with these practical distinctions for more accurate computations. The approach tracks resource flows along the global supply chain and provides detailed information on the production, transformation, international trade, and final use of 20 forest products in 223 countries, having also much wider coverage than most previous studies. We test this framework to analyse forest footprint of nations in the year 2014, showing that 22 Million hectares (Mha) of forest were harvested for the extraction of roundwood for global demand, being 9.1 Mha to satisfy the foreign demand of wood products (42% of the total forestland harvested area). Harvested forestland is concentrated in America (32%), Asia (29%) and Europe (28%), representing Africa (7%) and Oceania (4%). More than 50% of the reported forest area harvested worldwide is located in USA (15%), China (14%); Russia (11%) and Canada (8%). In terms of forest footprint, Asia shows the highest share of the total forest footprint (44%), followed by America (25%), Europe (21%), Africa (7%) and Oceania (2%).

Relevant energy questions have arisen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic shock leads to emissions’ reductions consistent with the rates of decrease required to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Those unforeseen drastic reductions in emissions are temporary as long as they do not involve structural changes. However, the COVID-19 consequences and the subsequent policy response will affect the economy for decades. Focusing on the EU, this discussion article argues how recovery plans are an opportunity to deepen the way towards a low-carbon economy, improving at the same time employment, health, and equity and the role of modelling tools. Long-term alignment with the low-carbon path and the development of a resilient transition towards renewable sources should guide instruments and policies, conditioning aid to energy-intensive sectors such as transport, tourism, and the automotive industry. However, the potential dangers of short-termism and carbon leakage persist. The current energy-socio-economic-environmental modelling tools are precious to widen the scope and deal with these complex problems. The scientific community has to assess disparate, non-equilibrium, and non-ordinary scenarios, such as sectors and countries lockdowns, drastic changes in consumption patterns, significant investments in renewable energies, and disruptive technologies and incorporate uncertainty analysis. All these instruments will evaluate the cost-effectiveness of decarbonization options and potential consequences on employment, income distribution, and vulnerability. © 2021

Several studies addressed the water footprint (WF) of countries and virtual water (VW) trade in agricultural and industrial products, but freshwater use associated with wood products has received little attention. Yet, international trade in wood products has been growing, and forestry competes with other forest ecosystem services over limited freshwater resources. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to assess nations’ WFs of consumption of wood products, the sustainability of these WFs, and the VW flows associated with international trade in wood products. We account nations’ WFs of and VW trade in wood products with a Multi-regional Input-Output model (MRIO-forest) that tracks wood flows along global supply chains (production, processing, trade, and final uses) for the period 1997-2017 and assess the sustainability of the green and blue WF of wood products in 2017. The WF of wood production increased from 8.37 × 1011 m3/y in 1997 to 9.87 × 1011 m3/y in 2017. About 38% (3.76 × 1011 m3/y) of this WF relates to wood products for export (in 2017), which means that VW trade associated with wood products ranks in between agricultural and industrial products in absolute volumes. About 10% (9.9 × 1010 m³/y) of the green WF and 11% (3.4 × 109 m³/y) of the blue WF of wood products in 2017 are unsustainable, meaning that they are located in areas where the total green/blue WF exceeds the maximum sustainable green/blue WF. The unsustainable green WF occurs mainly in Germany, Indonesia, the Czech Republic and the UK, and mainly relates to coniferous sawnwood, paper and paperboard other than newsprint, fibreboard and non-coniferous sawnwood. The unsustainable blue WF, which is much smaller, occurs in the USA, Russia. Nigeria, Canada and India, and mainly relates to fuelwood, paper and paperboard other than newsprint, sawnwood and fibreboard. This study increases our understanding of how forest evaporation flows link to the final consumption of wood products and contribute

This article analyzes the economic, social and environmental impact of various financing mechanisms for the regulated costs of renewable energies in the electricity sector (RECORE) in Spain. The scenarios analysed, alternative to the current system, in which the costs are transferred in full to the electricity bill of final consumers, are the following: financing through the General State Budgets (PGE scenario), financing through a tax proportional to final energy consumption (Energy scenario) and financed through a CO2 tax in diffuse sectors (CO2 scenario). The study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation model that includes detailed information on the 22,000 households included in the Household Budget Survey. The results show that the impact at the macroeconomic level is positive but very small for all the scenarios analyzed and that the changes at the sectoral level or in emissions depend notably on the scenario. All the scenarios favor low-income households since their spending on electricity represents a relatively higher percentage of their income. Although no alternative is better in all the dimensions analyzed, taxes on energy or CO2 favor the energy transition, while the PGE alter native generates more progressive distributional effects.

Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25 80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5 5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO2/kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses. © 2021, The Author(s).

Multisectoral models usually have a single representative household. However, more diversity of household types is needed to analyse the effects of multiple phenomena (i.e. ageing, gender inequality, distributional income impact, etc.). Household consumption surveys microdata is a rich data source for these types of analysis. However, feeding multisectoral models with this type of information is not simple and recent studies show how even slightly inaccurate procedures might result in significantly biased results. This paper presents the full procedure for feeding household consumption microdata into macroeconomic models and for the first time provides in a systematic way an estimation of the bridge matrices needed to link European Union Household Budget Surveys microdata with the most popular multi-regional input output frameworks (e.g. Eurostat, WIOD, EORA, OECD). © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Globalisation and the outsourcing of industrial manufacturing from developed to less developed countries has an increasing effect on the national energy balances of most developed economies. The current standard metric Total Primary Energy Supply of a country does not take into account the energy embodied in goods and services imported from other countries, leading to the perverse outcome of a country appearing to be more sustainable the more it outsources its energy-intensive industries. Academia has addressed this problem by suggesting the use of the Total Primary Energy Footprint as an additional metric, but there has not been a clear proposal put forward by academia to governments or international institutions about how to officially adopt Consumption-Based Accounting in the field of energy. This article states that acknowledging the existence of embodied energy flows is indispensable when formulating new national and international energy policies for the transition towards energy systems that are socially and environmentally more sustainable. In this study, the Hidden Energy Flow indicator of 44 countries has been quantified using, for the first time, five different Global Multi-Regional Input-Output databases for the latest available year, 2011. The proposed indicator provides a percentage to be added to or subtracted from the Total Primary Energy Used value of a country, provided by the International Energy Agency, to get its real consumption-based energy requirement. This study demonstrates that, from 44 countries analysed, the ten most developed countries demand on average 18.5% more energy than measured by the International Energy Agency; the medium developed 24 countries demand 12.4% more, and the ten least developed countries demand 1.6% less. This means that most developed and medium developed countries displace their indirect energy consumption towards less developed countries in a hidden way. Furthermore, this research supports evidence that direct en

The number of input-output assessments focused on energy has grown considerably in the last years. Many of these assessments combine data from multi-regional input-output (MRIO) databases with energy extensions that completely or partially depict the different stages through which energy products are supplied or used in the economy. The improper use of some energy extensions can lead to double accounting of some energy flows, but the frequency with which this happens and the potential impact on the results are unknown. Based on a literature review, we estimate that around a quarter of the MRIO-based energy assessments reviewed incurred into double accounting. Using the EXIOBASE MRIO database, we also analyse the effects of double accounting in the absolute values and rankings of different countries and products energy footprints. Building on the insights provided by our analysis, we offer a set of key recommendations to MRIO users to avoid the double accounting problem in the future. Likewise, we conclude that the harmonisation of the energy data across MRIO databases led by experts could simplify the choices of the data users until the provision of official energy extensions by statistical offices becomes a widespread practice. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd

In the literature on the attribution of responsibilities for greenhouse gas emissions, two accounting methods have been widely discussed: production-based accounting (PBA) and consumption-based accounting (CBA). It has been argued that an accounting framework for attributing responsibilities should credit actions contributing to reduce global emissions and should penalize actions increasing them. Neither PBA nor CBA satisfy this principle. Adapting classical Ricardian trade theory, we consider ex post measurement and propose a scheme for assigning credits and penalties. Their size is determined by how much CO2 emissions are saved globally due to trade. This leads to the emission responsibility allotment (ERA) for assigning responsibilities. We illustrate the differences between ERA and PBA and CBA by comparing their results for 41 countries and regions between 1995 2009. The Paris Agreement (COP21) proposed new market mechanisms; we argue that ERA is well suited to measure and evaluate their overall mitigation impact. © 2020, The Author(s).

This study assesses the reductions in air pollution emissions and subsequent beneficial health effects from different global mitigation pathways consistent with the 2 °C stabilization objective of the Paris Agreement. We use an integrated modelling framework, demonstrating the need for models with an appropriate level of technology detail for an accurate co-benefit assessment. The framework combines an integrated assessment model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to obtain estimates of premature mortality and then assesses their economic cost. The results show that significant co-benefits can be found for a range of technological options, such as introducing a limitation on bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power. Cumulative premature mortality may be reduced by 17 23% by 2020 2050 compared to the baseline, depending on the scenarios. However, the ratio of health co-benefits to mitigation costs varies substantially, ranging from 1.45 when a bioenergy limitation is set to 2.19 when all technologies are available. As for regional disaggregation, some regions, such as India and China, obtain far greater co-benefits than others. © 2020

Multisectoral models usually have a single representative household. However, more diversity of household types is needed to analyse the effects of multiple phenomena (i.e. ageing, gender inequality, distributional income impact, etc.). Household consumption surveys microdata is a rich data source for these types of analysis. However, feeding multisectoral models with this type of information is not simple and recent studies show how even slightly inaccurate procedures might result in significantly biased results. This paper presents the full procedure for feeding household consumption microdata into macroeconomic models and for the first time provides in a systematic way an estimation of the bridge matrices needed to link European Union Household Budget Surveys microdata with the most popular multi-regional input output frameworks (e.g. Eurostat, WIOD, EORA, OECD). © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Current ozone (O3) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010 to 2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0 6.0, 9.8 18.8, 6.7 10.6 and 10.4 12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O3. When O3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8 B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2 B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2 B (China). © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

The study covers two important deltaic systems of the north-east coast of India, viz. the Bengal and Mahanadi delta that support about 1.25 million people. The changes in potential marine fish production and socio-economic conditions were modelled for these two deltas under long-term changes in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature and primary production) to the end of the 21st century. Our results show that an increased temperature (by 4 °C) has a negative impact on fisheries productivity, which was projected to decrease by 5%. At the species level, Bombay duck, Indian mackerel and threadfin bream showed an increasing trend in the biomass of potential catches under the sustainable fishing scenario. However, under the business as usual and overfishing scenarios, our results suggest reduced catch for both states. On the other hand, mackerel tuna, Indian oil sardine, and hilsa fisheries showed a projected reduction in potential catch also for the sustainable fishing scenario. The socio-economic models projected an increase of up to 0.67% (involving 0.8 billion USD) in consumption by 2050 even under the best management scenario. The GDP per capita was projected to face a loss of 1.7 billion USD by 2050. The loss of low-cost fisheries would negatively impact the poorer coastal population since they strongly depend upon these fisheries as a source of protein. Nevertheless, adaptation strategies tend to have a negative correlation with poverty and food insecurity which needs to be addressed separately to make the sector-specific efforts effective. This work can be considered as the baseline model for future researchers and the policymakers to explore potential sustainable management options for the studied regions. © 2020 Elsevier B.V., This work was funded with the support from the Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation project (IDRC 107642) under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) program with financial support from the Department for International Development, UK Government (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada

Low carbon transition pathways entail diverse uncertainties and risks in the underlying environmental, social, political, economic and technological factors. Inadequate information about such risks could affect the achievement of climate change mitigation targets negatively. This paper provides a novel experiment in which quantitative tools and stakeholder engagement are combined in order to identify the barriers between stakeholders and scientists concerning climate change mitigation aspects. Technological risks are captured by simulating different low carbon scenarios with limited technology options. Stakeholders are asked about their preferences on technology options regarding a low carbon future. After providing them with the simulation results, they are asked again in order to see whether those initial preferences had changed. Results prove the necessity for better communication between modelers and stakeholders. Closing the gaps between both communities is essential to remove barriers for more ambitious action against climate change. © 2020 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

The Paris Agreement states that from 2020 developed countries will mobilize at least USD 100 billion per year to support climate action in developing countries. The attainment of this objective involves decisions by donor countries about the channel and destination of climate finance disbursements. This paper explores how the spending conditions associated to different disbursement options can affect the opportunities for donors to expand their exports. In particular, using a Multiregional Input-Output Model, it finds that donors have an economic incentive for choosing bilateral channels that enable to tie aid to the detriment of multilateral ones, such as the Green Climate Fund. On the other hand, local content requirements imposed by recipient countries do not substantially affect donors' exports, since they do not reduce intermediate exports, which represent a relevant share of the total exports generated by the mitigation and adaptation actions analysed. © 2020 World Scientific Publishing Company.

The use of simulation models is essential when exploring transitions to low-carbon futures and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. There are many models developed to understand socio-environmental processes and interactions, and analyze alternative scenarios, but hardly one single model can serve all the needs. There is much expectation in climate-energy research that constructing new purposeful models out of existing models used as building blocks can meet particular needs of research and policy analysis. Integration of existing models, however, implies sophisticated coordination of inputs and outputs across different scales, definitions, data and software. This paper presents an online integration platform which links various independent models to enhance their scope and functionality. We illustrate the functionality of this web platform using several simulation models developed as standalone tools for analyzing energy, climate and economy dynamics. The models differ in levels of complexity, assumptions, modeling paradigms and programming languages, and operate at different temporal and spatial scales, from individual to global. To illustrate the integration process and the internal details of our integration framework we link an Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM), a Computable General Equilibrium model (EXIOMOD), and an Agent Based Model (BENCH). This toolkit is generic for similar integrated modeling studies. It still requires extensive pre-integration assessment to identify the appropriate models and links between them. After that, using the web service approach we can streamline module coupling, enabling interoperability between different systems and providing open access to information for a wider community of users. © 2019 by the authors.

In the framework of recent international climate negotiations, industrialized countries have committed to transfer at least USD 100 billion per year to developing countries from 2020. Climate finance has become the subject of an already extensive literature. However, the economic impact of the disbursement of climate finance and the role of international trade in its distribution globally have not been studied yet. This paper specifically estimates the geographical distribution of economic benefits for 17 mitigation and 9 adaptation options. We use a Global Multi-Regional Input-Output framework to track both domestic as well as spill-over effects of climate finance disbursements. The relevance of spill-overs is confirmed: on average, 29% of the economic benefits of climate actions flow to countries different from the recipient country (i.e. to the donors and third countries). But this percentage varies widely, between 11 and 61% depending on the type of climate action implemented as well as the recipient country. The findings are expected to be of interest for both recipient and donor countries as they provide guidance on how to maximize the economic co-benefits of climate finance. (c) 2018, (c) 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor and Francis Group.

Deltas are especially vulnerable to climate change given their low-lying location and exposure to storm surges, coastal and fluvial flooding, sea level rise and subsidence. Increases in such events and other circumstances are contributing to the change in the environmental conditions in the deltas, which translates into changes in the productivity of ecosystems and, ultimately, into impacts on livelihoods and human well-being. Accordingly, climate change will affect not only the biophysical conditions of deltaic environments but also their economic circumstances. Furthermore, these economic implications will spill over to other regions through goods and services supply chains and via migration. In this paper we take a wider view about some of the specific studies within this Special Issue. We analyse the extent to which the biophysical context of the deltas contributes to the sustainability of the different economic activities, in the deltas and in other regions. We construct a set of environmental-extended multiregional input-output databases and Social Accounting Matrices that are used to trace the flow of provisioning ecosystem services across the supply chains, providing a view of the links between the biophysical environment and the economic activities. We also integrate this information into a Computable General Equilibrium model to assess how the changes in the provision of natural resources due to climate change can potentially affect the economies of the deltas and linked regions, and how this in turn affects economic vulnerability and sustainability in these regions. © 2018

This study explores the role of Finnish Special Operations Forces (FINSOF) in the northern Europe’s changing security environment by examining ways that FINSOF can become flexible enough to face rising hybrid threats from Russia. In order to become Finland’s strategic-level first response force against hybrid threats, both at home and abroad, FINSOF will require some integration and reshaping of its structures and tasks. Using three scenarios situated in the Baltic Sea area, this study analyzes FINSOF according to its Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats in order to develop the force into a more efficient tool of the Finnish government. In order to develop new structures and tasks, FINSOF requires a SOF-specific doctrine with a vision and clear goals, which would lay out a path for FINSOF to follow as it evolves. FINSOF’s ability to counter hybrid threats in the future will require flexibility, utilizing tailored forces and scalable command structures., http://archive.org/details/theroleofthefinn1094561384, Lieutenant Colonel, Army, Finland, Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

La lucha contra el cambio climático requiere una descarbonización urgente de la economía global. En el País Vasco si bien se han reducido las emisiones en los últimos años de manera conjunta, las correspondientes al sector del transporte han aumentado, poniendo de manifiesto que las actuales políticas de reducción de emisiones son insuficientes para alcanzar los objetivos establecidos para este sector. El sector público juega un papel esencial en la lucha contra el cambio climático y debe ser ejemplo y referente para el conjunto de la economía. En este trabajo se contempla la electrificación como la herramienta más eficiente para descarbonizar las flotas de vehículos de las Administraciones públicas y contribuir de esta manera a la descarbonización del sector público. Para ello, se ha realizado un análisis coste-beneficio económico, energético y ambiental de la electrificación de la flota de autobuses urbanos de Vitoria de la empresa Tuvisa. El principal resultado del estudio es que la tecnología eléctrica es más competitiva que la convencional si se elimina la devolución parcial del impuesto de hidrocarburos para las Administraciones públicas y se internalizan los costes ambientales derivados de los combustibles fósiles. Para avanzar en el proceso de electrificación de las flotas de vehículos, se proponen tres medidas fundamentales: fomentar la compra conjunta de vehículos eléctricos para reducir los costes iniciales; internalizar los costes externos derivados de las actividades del transporte; y promover la compra pública verde. Las implicaciones y recomendaciones obtenidas para este caso particular son extrapolables también para otras ciudades que pretendan fomentar la electrificación del transporte público.

© 2019 by the authors. The use of simulation models is essential when exploring transitions to low-carbon futures and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. There are many models developed to understand socio-environmental processes and interactions, and analyze alternative scenarios, but hardly one single model can serve all the needs. There is much expectation in climate-energy research that constructing new purposeful models out of existing models used as building blocks can meet particular needs of research and policy analysis. Integration of existing models, however, implies sophisticated coordination of inputs and outputs across different scales, definitions, data and software. This paper presents an online integration platform which links various independent models to enhance their scope and functionality. We illustrate the functionality of this web platform using several simulation models developed as standalone tools for analyzing energy, climate and economy dynamics. The models differ in levels of complexity, assumptions, modeling paradigms and programming languages, and operate at different temporal and spatial scales, from individual to global. To illustrate the integration process and the internal details of our integration framework we link an Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM), a Computable General Equilibrium model (EXIOMOD), and an Agent Based Model (BENCH). This toolkit is generic for similar integrated modeling studies. It still requires extensive pre-integration assessment to identify the ‘appropriate’ models and links between them. After that, using the web service approach we can streamline module coupling, enabling interoperability between different systems and providing open access to information for a wider community of users.

Deltas are home to a large and growing proportion of the world's population, often living in conditions of extreme poverty. Deltaic ecosystems are ecologically significant as they support high biodiversity and a variety of fisheries, however these coastal environments are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bangladesh/India), the Mahanadi (India), and the Volta (Ghana) are among the most important and populous delta regions in the world and they are all considered at risk of food insecurity and climate change. The fisheries sector is vital for populations that live in the three deltas, as a source of animal protein (in Bangladesh and Ghana around 50 60% of animal protein is supplied by fish while in India this is about 12%) through subsistence fishing, as a source of employment and for the wider economy. The aquaculture sector shows a rapid growth in Bangladesh and India while in Ghana this is just starting to expand. The main exported species differ across countries with Ghana and India dominated by marine fish species, whereas Bangladesh exports shrimps and prawns. Fisheries play a more important part in the economy of Bangladesh and Ghana than for India, both men and women work in fisheries, with a higher proportion of women in the Volta then in the Asian deltas. Economic and integrated modelling using future scenarios suggest that changes in temperature and primary production could reduce fish productivity and fisheries income especially in the Volta and Bangladesh deltas, however these losses could be mitigated by reducing overfishing and improving management. The analysis provided in this paper highlights the importance of applying plans for fisheries management at regional level. Minimizing the impacts of climate change while increasing marine ecosystems resilience must be a priority for scientists and governments before these have dramatic impacts on millions of people's lives. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.

We examine the similarities and differences of specific deltaic areas in parallel, under the project DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA). The main reason for studying Deltas is their potential vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise, which generates important challenges for livelihoods. We provide insights into the current socioeconomic and biophysical states of the Volta Delta (Ghana), Mahanadi Delta (India) and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (India and Bangladesh). Hybrid methods of input-output (IO) construction are used to develop environmentally extended IO models for comparing the economic characteristics of these delta regions with the rest of the country. The main sources of data for regionalization were country level census data, statistics and economic surveys and data on consumption, trade, agricultural production and fishing harvests. The Leontief demand-driven model is used to analyze land use in the agricultural sector of the Delta and to track the links with final demand. In addition, the Hypothetical Extraction Method is used to evaluate the importance of the hypothetical disappearance of a sector (e.g., agriculture). The results show that, in the case of the Indian deltas, more than 60% of the cropland and pasture land is devoted to satisfying demands from regions outside the delta. While in the case of the Bangladeshi and Ghanaian deltas, close to 70% of the area harvested is linked to internal demand. The results also indicate that the services, trade and transportation sectors represent 50% of the GDP in the deltas. Still, agriculture, an activity directly exposed to climate change, plays a relevant role in the deltas' economies-we have estimated that the complete disappearance of this activity would entail GDP losses ranging from 18 to 32%. © 2018 by the authors.

In pursuit of the drastic transformations necessary for effectively responding to climate change, the Paris Agreement stresses the need to design and implement sustainable, robust, and socially acceptable policy pathways in a globally coordinated and cooperative manner. For decades, the scientific community has been carrying out quantitative modelling exercises in support of climate policy design, primarily by means of energy systems and integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Here, we describe in detail the context of a hitherto ineffective scientific contribution to policymaking, highlight the available means to formulate a new paradigm that overcomes existing and emerging challenges, and ultimately call for change. In particular, we argue that individual modelling exercises alone widen the gap between formal representation and real-life context in which decisions are taken, and investigate major criticisms to which formalised modelling frameworks are subject. We essentially highlight the importance of employing diverse modelling ensembles, placing the human factor at the core of all modelling processes, and enhancing the robustness of model-driven policy prescriptions through decision support systems. These altogether compose a truly integrative approach to supporting the design of effective climate policy and sustainable transitions and, therefore, strengthen the modelling-policymaking interface. © 2018 by the authors.

Background: Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries in accordance with three established equity criteria. Methods: Our study had three stages. First, we used an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the emission (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) pathways and abatement costs of a set of scenarios with varying temperature objectives (nationally determined contributions, 2°C, or 1·5°C) and approaches to the distribution of climate change methods (capability, constant emission ratios, and equal per capita). The resulting emissions pathways were transferred to an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to estimate the concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the atmosphere and the resulting associated premature deaths and morbidity. We then applied a monetary value to these health impacts by use of a term called the value of statistical life and compared these values with those of the mitigation costs calculated from GCAM, both globally and regionally. Our analysis looked forward to 2050 in accordance with the socioeconomic narrative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. Findings: The health co-benefits substantially outweighed the policy cost of achieving the target for all of the scenarios that we analysed. In some of the mitigation strategies, the median co-benefits were double the median costs at a global level. The ratio of health co-benefit to mitigation cost ranged from 1·4 to 2·45, depending on the scenario. At the regiona

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP SSP SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making

The two main methods used to estimate raw material embodied in imports are life cycle assessment (LCA) and multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models. The key advantage of LCA is its higher product resolution but it relies on global or regional averages, which could bias results. Our outcomes suggest that this obstacle could be avoided for primary goods if domestic process data are collected, since the necessary raw materials are mostly extracted from the environment of the direct trade partner. Conversely, for many other products, intermediate inputs are produced following a wide range of blueprints and cross multiple borders, which makes it challenging to determine how and where raw materials needed for their production originate. For these products, a method to combine the superior coverage of MRIO with the product resolution of LCA is evaluated here, using imports to Finland as a study case. The analysis provides insights on how to identify critical supply chains and illustrates a relatively simple, replicable solution that can be used in other regions or environmental accounts. Nevertheless, the existing resolution of MRIO models and dissimilarities in classifications between the two tools could constitute a new source of errors if not properly handled. (c) 2018 Elsevier B.V.

The Copenhagen and Paris Agreements, in which developed countries committed to mobilise USD 100 billion a year by 2020, indicate that climate finance will continue to grow. Even though economic development is not the aim of climate finance, climate-related disbursements will generate an economic impact on recipient countries economies. This impact will also reach other countries (including climate finance donors) through induced international trade. In this paper, we apply a structural decomposition analysis to study why the economic impact of climate finance varies between countries. We focus on specific climate actions and quantify the contribution of four drivers: value-added intensity, domestic multiplier, foreign multiplier and trade structure. The paper helps identifying the factors with the greatest potential to enhance the economic gains of climate finance in each country. This information can be useful for policy-makers trying to design national strategies that exploit the synergies between climate action and economic development. © 2017 The International Input Output Association.

Mainstream literature on climate change concentrates overwhelmingly on technological solutions for this global long-term problem, while a change towards climate-friendly behaviour could play a role in emission reduction and has received little attention. This paper focuses on the potential climate mitigation by behavioural change in the European Union (EU) covering many behavioural options in food, mobility and housing demand which do not require any personal up-front investment. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), capturing both their direct and indirect implications in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. Our results indicate that modest to rigorous behavioural change could reduce per capita footprint emissions by 6 to 16%, out of which one fourth will take place outside the EU, predominantly by reducing land use change. The domestic emission savings would contribute to reduce the costs of achieving the internationally agreed climate goal of the EU by 13.5 to 30%. Moreover, many of these options would also yield co-benefits such as monetary savings, positive health impacts or animal wellbeing. These results imply the need for policymakers to focus on climate education and awareness programs more seriously and strategically, making use of the multiple co-benefits related with adopting pro-environmental behaviour. Apart from that, the relevance of behavioural change in climate change mitigation implies that policy-informing models on climate change should include behavioural change as a complement or partial alternative to technological change. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Carbon pricing is an essential instrument to address climate change. However international differences in carbon control policies may cause not only carbon leakage but also competitiveness disadvantages. In this context, border carbon adjustments are a promising tool for discouraging these problems. But designing a real-world border carbon adjustment instrument implies to consider significant issues: technical feasibility, data availability, the risk of retaliation from developing countries, and its compatibility within the World Trade Organization legal framework. There are still no conclusive answers about a proper design. This paper is an attempt to address the above-mentioned challenges proposing a carbon border tax (CBT) based on avoided emissions. Such a CBT is applied at a product level and not at a sector level, and all international prices are deflated to guarantee that import like goods received a treatment similar to like domestic products. Using the WIOD, we simulate a CBT based on avoided emissions applied by the European Union, and we compare the results with a CBT based on embodied emissions. (c) 2017

The 28 states of the European Union are addressing considerable effort to reduce their current national energy consumption levels. A new environmental and socially low impact energy system, based on energy consumption reductions, an increase in energy efficiency and reductions of emissions shifting to renewable energy generation are established in all European countries ́ National Energy Efficiency Action Plans. The main goal of country policies to reduce energy consumption, while still increasing the national development level. Within this context, the Global Financial Crisis that especially impacted the European Union in 2009, a new opportunity emerged to analyse the relation between Human Development Index and the energy consumption of a country. In this study, the capacity of the European countries to reduce their energy consumption and the capacity to maintain their development standards have been analysed, based on the Total Primary Energy Supply as well as on the Total Primary Energy Footprint. The former has been provided by the International Energy Agency and the later has been calculated by using Global Multi-Regional Input-Output methodology. The results provide relevant insights towards understanding how a crisis context could be an opportunity in terms of becoming less energy intensive while still maintaining an upward trend for the development indicators of the country.

This study explores the role of Finnish Special Operations Forces (FINSOF) in the northern Europe’s changing security environment by examining ways that FINSOF can become flexible enough to face rising hybrid threats from Russia. In order to become Finland’s strategic-level first response force against hybrid threats, both at home and abroad, FINSOF will require some integration and reshaping of its structures and tasks. Using three scenarios situated in the Baltic Sea area, this study analyzes FINSOF according to its Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats in order to develop the force into a more efficient tool of the Finnish government. In order to develop new structures and tasks, FINSOF requires a SOF-specific doctrine with a vision and clear goals, which would lay out a path for FINSOF to follow as it evolves. FINSOF’s ability to counter hybrid threats in the future will require flexibility, utilizing tailored forces and scalable command structures.

The two main methods used to estimate raw material embodied in imports are life cycle assessment (LCA) and multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models. The key advantage of LCA is its higher product resolution but it relies on global or regional averages, which could bias results. Our outcomes suggest that this obstacle could be avoided for primary goods if domestic process data are collected, since the necessary raw materials are mostly extracted from the environment of the direct trade partner. Conversely, for many other products, intermediate inputs are produced following a wide range of blueprints and cross multiple borders, which makes it challenging to determine how and where raw materials needed for their production originate. For these products, a method to combine the superior coverage of MRIO with the product resolution of LCA is evaluated here, using imports to Finland as a study case. The analysis provides insights on how to identify critical supply chains and illustrates a relatively simple, replicable solution that can be used in other regions or environmental accounts. Nevertheless, the existing resolution of MRIO models and dissimilarities in classifications between the two tools could constitute a new source of errors if not properly handled.

Fossil fuel subsidies (FFS) constitute one of the most obvious barriers to tackling climate change, as they encourage inefficient energy consumption and divert investment away from clean energy sources. According to the International Monetary Fund, FFS amounted globally to $233 billion in 2014, over four times the value of subsidies awarded to promote renewable energy. In this study an integrated assessment model is used to analyse the CO 2 implications in the European Union of eliminating FFS and recycling the revenues to promote rooftop PV. It is found that eliminating FFS would give rise to a small reduction in CO 2 due to fuel-switching from coal to gas. If the revenues were recycled to promote solar, then the CO 2 reduction would increase from 1.8% to 2.2% by 2030. Eliminating FFS is not a panacea from the mitigation point of view, even if the revenues are recycled, but other important objectives, such as those related to renewable energy promotion and the reduction of air pollution, are advanced at zero cost for the government. © 2017 by the author.