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Summary Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today’s grand challenges. By using a modified horizon-scanning approach that integrated scientists, managers, and decision-makers, we identified the emerging issues in ecological drought that represent key challenges to timely and effective responses. Here we review the themes that most urgently need attention, including novel drought conditions, the potential for transformational drought impacts, and the need for anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and review provides a roadmap to facilitate the research and management innovations that will support forward-looking, co-developed approaches to reduce the risk of drought to our socio-ecological systems during the 21st century.

Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given projected changes in temperature and precipitation, or by mapping topographic features that buffer species from regional climate extremes. However, the function of those hypothesized refugia must be validated (or challenged) with independent data not used in the initial identification of the refugia. Although doing so would facilitate the incorporation of climate‐change refugia into conservation and management decision making, a synthesis of validation methods is currently lacking. We reviewed the literature and defined four methods to test refugia predictions. We propose that such bottom‐up approaches can lead to improved protected‐area designations and on‐the‐ground management actions to reduce influences from non‐climate stressors within potential refugia.

Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as "slow lanes" rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

Drought is a complex challenge experienced in specific locations through diverse impacts, including ecological impacts. Different professionals involved in drought preparedness and response approach the problem from different points of view, which means they may or may not recognize ecological impacts. This study examines the extent to which interviewees perceive ecological drought in the Upper Missouri Headwaters basin in southwestern Montana. Through semistructured interviews, this research investigates individuals' perceptions of drought by analyzing how they define drought, how they describe their roles related to drought, and the extent to which they emphasize ecological impacts of drought. Results suggest that while most interviewees have an integrated understanding of drought, they tend to emphasize either ecological or nonecological impacts of drought. This focus was termed their drought orientation. Next, the analysis considers how participants understand exposure to drought. Results indicate that participants view drought as a complex problem driven by both human and natural factors. Last, the paper explores understandings of the available solution space by examining interviewees' views on adaptive capacity, particularly factors that facilitate or hinder the ability of the Upper Missouri Headwaters region to cope with drought. Participants emphasized that adaptive capacity is both helped and hindered by institutional, cultural, and economic factors, as well as by available information and past resource management practices. Understanding how interviewees perceive the challenges of drought can shape drought preparedness and response, allowing those designing programs to better align their efforts to the perceptions of their target audience.AMS copyright. Deposited by shareyourpaper.org and openaccessbutton.org. We've taken reasonable steps to ensure this content doesn't violate copyright. However, if you think it does you can request a takedown by emailing help@openaccessbutton.org.

Relatively mesic environments within arid regions may be important conservation targets as ‘climate change refugia’ for species persistence in the face of worsening drought conditions. Semi-arid southern California and the relatively mesic environments of California’s Channel Islands provide a model system for examining drought responses of plants in potential climate change refugia. Most methods for detecting refugia are focused on ‘exposure’ of organisms to certain abiotic conditions, which fail to assess how local adaptation or acclimation of plant traits (i.e. ‘sensitivity’) contribute to or offset the benefits of reduced exposure. Here, we use a comparative plant hydraulics approach to characterize the vulnerability of plants to drought, providing a framework for identifying the locations and trait patterns that underlie functioning climate change refugia. Seasonal water relations, xylem hydraulic traits and remotely sensed vegetation indices of matched island and mainland field sites were used to compare the response of native plants from contrasting island and mainland sites to hotter droughts in the early 21st century. Island plants experienced more favorable water relations and resilience to recent drought. However, island plants displayed low plasticity/adaptation of hydraulic traits to local conditions, which indicates that relatively conserved traits of island plants underlie greater hydraulic safety and localized buffering from regional drought conditions. Our results provide an explanation for how California’s Channel Islands function as a regional climate refugia during past and current climate change and demonstrate a physiology-based approach for detecting potential climate change refugia in other systems.

Browsing by exotic mule deer on Santa Catalina Island (SCI) off the coast of southern California may diminish the post-fire resilience of native shrublands. To assess this, deer exclosures were established following a wildfire to monitor post-fire recovery of three dominant, native shrub species (Heteromeles arbutifolia, Rhus integrifolia, and Rhamnus pirifolia). Post-fire resprout growth, mortality, and tissue water status as well as pre- and post-fire shrub density and cover were measured inside and outside of deer exclosures. We found that deer browsing significantly limited post-fire resprout growth and led to increased mortality of resprouting H. arbutifolia shrubs (88 % mortality outside compared to 11 % inside exclosures). Post-fire resprouts maintained favorable water status during the study despite drought conditions, indicating that water stress was not a proximate cause of resprout mortality. Deer browsing resulted in a >93 % reduction in canopy coverage of dominant shrub species. The dramatic reduction of native shrubs at this site may create opportunities for displacement by exotic species, resulting in eventual vegetation-type conversion. The observed link between intense browsing and post-fire shrub mortality provides much needed information concerning the environmental impact of exotic deer on SCI and illustrates the interaction between exotic herbivores and fire on an island system.

Environmental contextEngineered nanomaterials have the potential to accumulate in agricultural soils where they may influence crop plants. There is, however, little information about how adverse environmental conditions may interact with nanomaterial effects on plants and plant-microbe interactions. We report the comparative effects of three carbonaceous nanomaterials on the growth, nodulation and foliar health of a globally important legume crop, soybean, under the combined stresses of high temperature and insect pests. AbstractBecause carbonaceous nanomaterials (CNMs) are expected to enter soils, the exposure implications to crop plants and plant–microbe interactions should be understood. Most investigations have been under ideal growth conditions, yet crops commonly experience abiotic and biotic stresses. Little is known how co-exposure to these environmental stresses and CNMs would cause combined effects on plants. We investigated the effects of 1000mgkg−1 multiwalled carbon nanotubes (CNTs), graphene nanoplatelets (GNPs) and industrial carbon black (CB) on soybeans grown to the bean production stage in soil. Following seed sowing, plants became stressed by heat and infested with an insect (thrips). Consequently, all plants had similarly stunted growth, leaf damage, reduced final biomasses and fewer root nodules compared with healthy control soybeans previously grown without heat and thrips stresses. Thus, CNMs did not significantly influence the growth and yield of stressed soybeans, and the previously reported nodulation inhibition by CNMs was not specifically observed here. However, CNMs did significantly alter two leaf health indicators: the leaf chlorophyll a/b ratio, which was higher in the GNP treatment than in either the control (by 15%) or CB treatment (by 14%), and leaf lipid peroxidation, which was elevated in the CNT treatment compared with either the control (by 47%) or GNP treatment (by 66%). Overall, these results show that, while severe environmental stresses may impair plant production, CNMs (including CNTs and GNPs) in soil could additionally affect foliar health of an agriculturally important legume.

The absence of herbivores from certain environments may select for plants that are less defended and more palatable compared to plants in similar environments that are exposed to herbivory. This potential loss of defenses becomes especially important when exotic herbivores are introduced to islands that historically lack such organisms, potentially resulting in negative effects on native island ecosystems. To test the hypothesis that island plants have reduced defensive traits, we measured structural defenses and palatability of 10 taxonomic pairs from contrasting island and mainland environments. Our study compares plants from Santa Catalina Island, California—which has a long history without large native herbivores followed by more recent human-caused introductions—to the adjacent southern California mainland where ungulate herbivores are native and common. Our results suggest that island plants have reduced structural defenses and are more preferred by herbivores compared to their mainland plant relatives. These patterns are likely driven by selection on plant traits in the unique and insular island environment. Reduced defenses and increased palatability of island plant species should be considered when developing management strategies for island ecosystems that historically lack native ungulate herbivores.

Understanding and predicting plant response to disturbance is of paramount importance in our changing world. Resprouting ability is often considered a simple qualitative trait and used in many ecological studies. Our aim is to show some of the complexities of resprouting while highlighting cautions that need be taken in using resprouting ability to predict vegetation responses across disturbance types and biomes. There are marked differences in resprouting depending on the disturbance type, and fire is often the most severe disturbance because it includes both defoliation and lethal temperatures. In the Mediterranean biome, there are differences in functional strategies to cope with water deficit between resprouters (dehydration avoiders) and nonresprouters (dehydration tolerators); however, there is little research to unambiguously extrapolate these results to other biomes. Furthermore, predictions of vegetation responses to changes in disturbance regimes require consideration not only of resprouting, but also other relevant traits (e.g. seeding, bark thickness) and the different correlations among traits observed in different biomes; models lacking these details would behave poorly at the global scale. Overall, the lessons learned from a given disturbance regime and biome (e.g. crown-fire Mediterranean ecosystems) can guide research in other ecosystems but should not be extrapolated at the global scale., This work was performed under the framework of the TREVOL projects (CGL2012-39938-C02-01 to J.G.P.) from the Spanish Government. A.L.J., R.B.P., A.V. and S.P. were supported by the following grants: IOS-1252232 (NSF), IOS-0845125 (NSF), CGL-2011-30531-CO2-02 (SURVIVE Project, Spain), ID-1120458 (Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico, FONDECYT, Chile), respectively. Fundación Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterráneo (CEAM) is supported by Generalitat Valenciana.

We examined postfire regeneration of chaparral shrubs during an intense drought. This study focused on the demography and physiology of shrub species that resprout from a basal lignotuber following fire. We found significant levels of resprout mortality when intense drought occurred in the year following fire during the period of shrub recovery. Three of the seven sampled resprouting species had the greatest or near greatest levels of mortality ever recorded when compared to previous studies. Most shrub mortality occurred during the drought after individuals had resprouted (i.e. individuals survived fire, resprouted and then subsequently died). Physiological measurements of species with high mortality suggested that resprout stems were highly embolized and xylem hydraulic conductivities were close to zero during the peak of the drought. In addition, lignotubers of two of the three species experiencing high mortality were depleted of starch. Population densities of most shrub species declined after the drought compared with their prefire levels, with the exception of one drought tolerant obligate seeding species. Resprouting shrub species may deplete their carbohydrate reserves during the resprouting process, making them particularly vulnerable to drought because of the need to transpire water to acquire the CO2 that is used to supply energy to a large respiring root system. Drought appears to interact with fire by altering postfire shrub recovery and altering species abundances and composition of chaparral communities.