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Here, we present results on the intrinsic collision probabilities, $ P_I$, and range of collision speeds, $V_I$, as a function of the heliocentric distance, $r$, in the trans-Neptunian region. The collision speed is one of the parameters, that serves as a proxy to a collisional outcome e.g., complete disruption and scattering of fragments, or formation of crater, where both processes are directly related to the impact energy. We utilize an improved and de-biased model of the trans-Neptunian object (TNO) region from the "Outer Solar System Origins Survey" (OSSOS). It provides a well-defined orbital distribution model of TNOs, based on multiple opposition observations of more than 1000 bodies. In this work we compute collisional probabilities for the OSSOS models of the main classical, resonant, detached+outer and scattering TNO populations. The intrinsic collision probabilities and collision speeds are computed using the ��pik's approach, as revised and modified by Wetherill for non-circular and inclined orbits. The calculations are carried out for each of the dynamical TNO groups, allowing for inter-population collisions as well as collisions within each TNO population, resulting in 28 combinations in total. Our results indicate that collisions in the trans-Neptunian region are possible over a wide range in ($r, V_I$) phase space. Although collisions are calculated to happen within $r\sim 20 - 200$~AU and $V_I \sim 0.1$~km/s to as high as $V_I\sim9$~km/s, most of the collisions are likely to happen at low relative velocities $V_I, 13 pages, 6 figures

In this work we model the dynamical evolution of meteoroid streams of comet 96P/Machholz, and the largest member of the Marsden sunskirters, comet P/1999 J6. We simultaneously fit the characteristics of eight meteor showers which have been proposed to be linked to the complex, using observations from a range of techniques - visual, video, TV and radar. The aim is to obtain a self-consistent scenario of past capture of a large comet into a short-period orbit, and its subsequent fragmentation history. Moreover, we also aim to constrain the dominant parent of these showers. The fit of our simulated shower characteristics to observations is consistent with the scenario of a capture of a proto-comet 96P/Machholz by Jupiter circa 20000 BCE, and a subsequent major breakup around 100–950 CE which resulted in the formation of the Marsden group of comets. We find that the Marsden group of comets are not the immediate parents of the daytime Arietids and Northern and Southern δ -Aquariids, as previously suggested. In fact, the hypothesis that the Northern δ -Aquariids are related to the Marsden group of comets is not supported by this study. The bulk of the observational characteristics of all eight showers can be explained by meteoroid ejection primarily from comet 96P/Machholz between 10000 BCE and 20000 BCE. Assuming the Marsden group of comets originated between 100 CE–950 CE, we conclude that sunskirting comets contribute mainly to the meteoroid stream near the time of the peak of the daytime Arietids, Southern δ -Aquariids, κ -Velids. Finally, we find that the meteor showers identified by Babadzhanov and Obrubov (1992) as the α -Cetids, the Ursids and Carinids correspond to the daytime λ -Taurids, the November ι -Draconids or December α -Draconids and the θ -Carinids.

The past dynamical evolution of the meteoroid streams associated with comet 96P/Machholz is investigated. The goal is to obtain a coherent picture of the past capture of this large comet into a short period orbit, and its subsequent breakup hierarchy. In particular, the aim is to constrain the earliest epoch that this large first precursor started to supply meteoroids into the interplanetary space. The fragments and meteoroid streams of that past cometary decay constitute a wide multiplex of interplanetary bodies, knows as the 96P/Machholz complex. The largest presently surviving fragment is comet 96P/Machholz, followed by a large amount of debris including the Marsden and Kracht group of sungrazing comets, as well as at least one object of asteroidal appearance e.g., asteroid 2003 EH1. It has been recognized that comet 96P/Machholz can give rise to eight different meteor showers within one Kozai secular cycle. These are the Quadrantids, daytime Arietids, Southern and Northern delta-Aquariids, kappa-Velids, theta-Carinids, alpha-Cetids and the Ursids. The first four showers are strong and well defined. The remaining four showers are weaker and less well constrained. In fact, while the activity of the Southern and Northern delta-Aquariids and kappa-Velids, theta-Carinids stands well above the sporadic meteor background, the existence of the alpha-Cetids and the Ursids, and their association with comet 96P/Machholz is uncertain. Recently, some of these meteor showers have been associated with the Marsden group of sunskirting comets, based on orbital similarity and past dynamical evolution. The fact that these meteoroid streams are associated with more than one parent strongly suggest a possible genetic relationship between these bodies. Using large-scale numerical simulations, the formation and past evolution of each individual meteoroid stream, associated with comet 96P/Machholz and the Marsden group of comets, is explored. Then the simulated shower characteristics are compared with observed ones as constrained by different meteor detection surveys (radar, TV, video, photographic and visual). \indent In the first part of this work, the formation and likely age of the Quadrantids, the strongest among the eight meteor showers, is examined. The Quadrantids are unusual with their very short duration of maximum activity (~17 hours) superimposed over a long-lasting weaker activity. The short duration of the peak activity indicates a narrow stream which on the other hand suggest that it must be young. Using numerical simulations it is demonstrated that the core of the Quadrantids is only 200 years old and is associated with asteroid 2003 EH1, while the broader activity is associated with comet 96P/Machholz. The possible nature of the parent, as a dormant or recently extinct comet, is emphasized. The second part of the work focuses on the age and likely parent of the daytime Arietids meteor shower. Due to their daytime peak activity, the observational characteristics of the Arietids are mostly constrained by radar surveys. The association of the shower with comet 96P/Machholz, and more recent linkage to the Marsden group of sunskirters is examined. Numerical simulations fits to observations suggest that the the Marsden group of comets can not be the dominant parent of the stream, though they contribute to the peak of the shower. The major parent is comet 96P/Machholz and the age of the daytime Arietids is at least 10000 years. The last part of this study investigates the origin and ages of the less-well constrained showers, the Southern and Northern delta-Aquariids, kappa-Velids, theta-Carinids, and the mis-associated alpha-Cetids and Ursids with comet 96P/Machholz. It is demonstrated that the gross features of the observed characteristics of the first four showers can be explained by comet 96P/Machholz while the Marsden group of comets contribute a small fraction to the peak activity of these showers. Furthermore, the association of the Northern delta-Aquariids with the Marsden group of comets, as previously suggested by several authors, is not supported by this study. Instead the bulk contributor to the shower is comet 96P/Machholz, and possibly another minor parent or parents not considered in this work. Furthermore, two showers were established as potential candidates for the misidentified alpha-Cetids and Ursids. These showers are the daytime lambda-Taurids and the much weaker December alpha-Draconids, though the last shower spatially overlaps with the November iota-Draconids, where their separation as individual showers is difficult. Lastly, the derived ages of all showers vary between 12000-20000 years, much older than previous estimates. When these shower age estimates are put into perspective, the observed characteristics of showers are consistent with a scenario of a capture of a large first precursor of the 96P complex circa 20000 BC and its subsequent fragmentation with a major break occurring around 100 AD as origin of the sunskirting comets.

The Quadrantid meteor shower is among the strongest annual meteor showers, and has drawn the attention of scientists for several decades. The stream is unusual, among others, for several reasons: its very short duration around maximum activity (≈12–14 h) as detected by visual, photographic and radar observations, its recent onset (around 1835 AD Quetelet, L.A.J. [1839]. Catalogue des principles apparitions d’etoiles filantes) and because it had been the only major stream without an obvious parent body until 2003. Ever since, there have been debates as to the age of the stream and the nature of its proposed parent body, asteroid 2003 EH 1 . In this work, we present results on the most probable age and formation mechanism of the narrow portion of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream. For the first time we use data on eight high precision photographic Quadrantids, equivalent to gram–kilogram size, to constrain the most likely age of the core of the stream. Out of eight high-precision photographic Quadrantids, five pertain directly to the narrow portion of the stream. In addition, we also use data on five high-precision radar Quadrantids, observed within the peak of the shower. We performed backwards numerical integrations of the equations of motion of a large number of ‘clones’ of both, the eight high-precision photographic and five radar Quadrantid meteors, along with the proposed parent body, 2003 EH 1 . According to our results, from the backward integrations, the most likely age of the narrow structure of the Quadrantids is between 200 and 300 years. These presumed ejection epochs, corresponding to 1700–1800 AD, are then used for forward integrations of large numbers of hypothetical meteoroids, ejected from the parent 2003 EH 1 , until the present epoch. The aim is to constrain whether the core of the Quadrantid meteoroid stream is consistent with a previously proposed relatively young age (≈200 years).