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BackgroundDrought is an understudied driver of infectious disease dynamics. Amidst the ongoing southwestern North American megadrought, California (USA) is having the driest multi-decadal period since 800 CE, exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. In this study, we aimed to examine the influence of drought on coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease in southwestern USA.MethodsWe analysed California census tract-level surveillance data from 2000 to 2020 using generalised additive models and distributed monthly lags on precipitation and temperature. We then developed an ensemble prediction algorithm of incident cases of coccidioidomycosis per census tract to estimate the counterfactual incidence that would have occurred in the absence of drought.FindingsBetween April 1, 2000, and March 31, 2020, there were 81 448 reported cases of coccidioidomycosis throughout California. An estimated 1467 excess cases of coccidioidomycosis were observed in California in the 2 years following the drought that occurred between 2007 and 2009, and an excess 2649 drought-attributable cases of coccidioidomycosis were observed in the 2 years following the drought that occurred between 2012 and 2015. These increased numbers of cases more than offset the declines in cases that occurred during drought. An IQR increase in summer temperatures was associated with 2·02 (95% CI 1·84-2·22) times higher incidence in the following autumn (September to November), and an IQR increase in precipitation in the winter was associated with 1·45 (1·36-1·55) times higher incidence in the autumn. The effect of winter precipitation was 36% (25-48) stronger when preceded by two dry, rather than average, winters. Incidence in arid counties was most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations, while incidence in wetter counties was most sensitive to temperature.InterpretationIn California, multi-year cycles of dry conditions followed by a wet winter increases transmission of coccidioidomycosis, especially in historically wetter areas. With anticipated increasing frequency of drought in southwestern USA, continued expansion of coccidioidomycosis, along with more intense seasons, is expected. Our results motivate the need for heightened precautions against coccidioidomycosis in seasons that follow major droughts.FundingNational Institutes of Health.

BackgroundCoccidioidomycosis is an emerging infection in the southwestern United States. We examined the effects of precipitation and temperature on the incidence of coccidioidomycosis in California during 2000-2020, and estimated incident cases attributable to the California droughts of 2007-09 and 2012-15.MethodsWe analyzed monthly California coccidioidomycosis surveillance data from 2000–2020 at the census tract-level using generalized additive models. Models included distributed lags of precipitation and temperature within each endemic county, pooled using fixed-effects meta-analysis. An ensemble prediction algorithm of incident cases per census tract was developed to estimate the impact of drought on expected cases.ResultsAcross 14 counties examined, coccidioidomycosis was strongly suppressed during, and amplified following, the 2007-2009 and 2012-2015 droughts. An estimated excess of 1,358 and 2,461 drought-attributable cases were observed in California in the two years following the 2007-2009 and 2012-2015 droughts, respectively. These post-drought excess cases more than offset the drought-attributable declines of 1,126 and 2,192 cases, respectively, that occurred during the 2007-2009 and 2012-2015 droughts. Across counties, a temperature increase from the 25th to 75th percentile (interquartile range) in the summer was associated with a doubling of incidence in the following fall (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 2.02, 95% CI: 1.84, 2.22), and a one IQR increase in precipitation in the winter was associated with 1.45 (95% CI: 1.36, 1.55) times higher incidence in the fall. The effect of winter precipitation was stronger (interaction coefficient representing ratio of IRRs: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.48) when preceded by two dry rather than average winters. Incidence in arid lower San Joaquin Valley counties was most sensitive to winter precipitation fluctuations, while incidence in wetter coastal counties was most sensitive to summer temperature fluctuations.ConclusionsIn California, wet winters along with hot summers, particularly those following previous dry years, increased risk of coccidioidomycosis in California. Drought conditions may suppress incidence, then amplify incidence in subsequent years. With anticipated increasing frequency of drought in California, continued expansion of incidence, particularly in wetter, coastal regions, is expected.

Wind is a common ground transportation hazard. In arid regions, wind‐blown dust is an added risk. Here, we analyzed the relationship between accidents and wind speed, dust events to study how they may have contributed to vehicular accidents in California. The California Highway Patrol reports information about weather conditions that potentially contributed to traffic accidents, including a code for wind but not for reduced visibility due to dust. For the three counties that contain the major dust source regions in California (the Mojave Desert and the Imperial Valley), we found greater daily maximum wind speed for days with accidents coded for wind compared to all days with accidents. The percentage of people injured in accidents attributed for weather other than wind and coded for wind were the same; however, the percentage of people who died in wind‐related accidents was about double the deaths in accidents caused by weather other than wind. At ground meteorological stations closest to accidents, we found lower median minimum visibility for days with wind‐related accidents compared to all days with accidents. Across the region, wind speed recorded at ground meteorological stations increased the probability of high satellite‐derived dust optical depth values. Over the period of 2006 to 2016, the correlation between daily minimum visibility and daily maximum satellite‐estimated dust optical depth was negative. Our analysis of the correlation between dust and accidents shows that with increased wind storm and dust‐event frequency in the future, the risk of traffic incidents due to wind and dust could increase., Key Points The percentage of people who died in wind‐related accidents is about double the deaths in accidents coded for weather other than windThe probability of wind‐related accidents increased in low visibilities indicating that dust contributed to these incidentsGround visibility and dust optical depth were negatively correlated which highlights the increased risk of accidents in a dusty future

The salinization of freshwater-dependent coastal ecosystems precedes inundation by sea level rise. This type of saltwater intrusion places communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure at substantial risk. Risk perceptions of local residents are an indicator to gauge public support for climate change adaptation planning. Here, we document residential perspectives on the present and future threats posed by saltwater intrusion in a rural, low-lying region in coastal North Carolina, and we compare the spatial distribution of survey responses to physical landscape variables such as distance to coastline, artificial drainage density, elevation, saltwater intrusion vulnerability, and actual salinity measured during a synoptic field survey. We evaluate and discuss the degree of alignment or misalignment between risk perceptions and metrics of exposure to saltwater intrusion. Risk perceptions align well with the physical landscape characteristics, as residents with greater exposure to saltwater intrusion, including those living on low-lying land with high concentrations of artificial drainages, perceive greater risk than people living in low-exposure areas. Uncertainty about threats of saltwater intrusion is greatest among those living at higher elevations, whose properties and communities are less likely to be exposed to high salinity. As rising sea levels, drought, and coastal storms increase the likelihood of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions, integrated assessments of risk perceptions and physical exposure are critical for developing outreach activities and planning adaptation measures.

The California state government put restrictions on outdoor residential water use, including landscape irrigation, during the 2012-2016 drought. The public health implications of these actions are largely unknown, particularly with respect to mosquito-borne disease transmission. While residential irrigation facilitates persistence of mosquitoes by increasing the availability of standing water, few studies have investigated its effects on vector abundance. In two study sub-regions in the Los Angeles Basin, we examined the effect of outdoor residential water use restrictions on the abundance of the most important regional West Nile virus vector, Culex quinquefasciatus. Using spatiotemporal random forest models fit to Cx. abundance during drought and non-drought years, we generated counterfactual estimates of Cx. abundance under a hypothetical drought scenario without water use restrictions. We estimate that Cx. abundance would have been 44% and 39% larger in West Los Angeles and Orange counties, respectively, if outdoor water usage had remained unchanged. Our results suggest that drought, without mandatory water use restrictions, may counterintuitively increase the availability of larval habitats for vectors in naturally dry, highly irrigated settings and such mandatory water use restrictions may constrain Cx. abundance, which could reduce the risk of mosquito-borne disease while helping urban utilities maintain adequate water supplies.

Many rural coastal regions are distinctly vulnerable to sea level rise because of their remoteness, isolation from central planning agencies, and poverty. To better plan for future sea level changes in these regions, an interdisciplinary approach to assess the social and environmental impacts of sea level rise and their dynamic feedbacks is important. In this paper, we use a socio-ecological system framework to investigate sea level rise impacts to the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula, a rural, low-lying coastal region in eastern North Carolina. Specifically, we show that 42% of the region could be inundated and property losses of up to US $14 billion could be incurred with 100 cm of sea level rise. We also synthesize the impacts of sea level rise on the region’s social-ecological system and present strategies to strengthen the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem, markets and communities. We conclude with a discussion on the differing climate change risk perceptions amongst the stakeholders as well as implications for decision-making. Sea level rise will continue to threaten the functioning of this social-ecological system of rural, low-lying coastal communities. A socio-ecological system framework provides a lens through which the impacts of sea level rise can be evaluated for rural, low-lying coastal communities. The framework presented here necessitates interdisciplinary research and highlights the importance of mutual learning amongst stakeholders in other rural coastal regions.

Author(s): Yu, Kailiang; D'Odorico, Paolo; Collins, Scott L; Carr, David; Porporato, Amilcare; Anderegg, William R. L; Gilhooly, William P; Wang, Lixin; Bhattachan, Abinash; Bartlett, Mark; Hartzell, Samantha; Yin, Jun; He, Yongli; Li, Wei; Tatlhego, Mokganedi; Fuentes, Jose D | Abstract: Plants with crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) are increasing in distribution and abundance in drylands worldwide, but the underlying drivers remain unknown. We investigate the impacts of extreme drought and CO2 enrichment on the competitive relationships between seedlings of Cylindropuntia imbricata (CAM species) and Bouteloua eriopoda (C4 grass), which coexist in semiarid ecosystems across the Southwestern United States. Our experiments under altered water and CO2 water conditions show that C. imbricata positively responded to CO2 enrichment under extreme drought conditions, while B. eriopoda declined from drought stress and did not recover after the drought ended. Conversely, in well‐watered conditions B. eriopoda had a strong competitive advantage on C. imbricata such that the photosynthetic rate and biomass (per individual) of C. imbricata grown with B. eriopoda were lower relative to when growing alone. A meta‐analysis examining multiple plant families across global drylands shows a positive response of CAM photosynthesis and productivity to CO2 enrichment. Collectively, our results suggest that under drought and elevated CO2 concentrations, projected with climate change, the competitive advantage of plant functional groups may shift and the dominance of CAM plants may increase in semiarid ecosystems.

Drylands may undergo relatively rapid changes in land cover, plant communities, erosion rates, and hydroclimatic conditions that result in losses of ecosystem services and livelihoods. These socio-environmental changes are often termed “desertification,” which literally means “transition to desert-like conditions.” Because deserts occur in different forms and shapes, desertification is a rather ambiguous term that does not uniquely point to a specific environmental process, final outcome, or underlying driver of environmental change in drylands. Indeed, desertification can lead to, among other outcomes, a loss of vegetation cover, accelerated soil erosion, bush encroachment in xeric grasslands, displacement of perennial native grasses by exotic annuals, and an increase in soil salinity or toxicity (e.g., Martinez-Beltran and Manzur 2005; Rengasamy 2006; Schlesinger et al. 1990; Van Auken 2000). These changes are relatively irreversible at timescales spanning human generations. In other words, desertification is the environmental “deterioration” of drylands (Dregne 1977) that leads to a persistent and, in the most extreme case, an irreversible transition to desert-like conditions (MEA 2005; D’Odorico and Ravi 2016).

The exposure of freshwater-dependent coastal ecosystems to saltwater is a present-day impact of climate and land-use changes in many coastal regions, with the potential to harm freshwater and terrestrial biota, alter biogeochemical cycles and reduce agricultural yields. Land-use activities associated with artificial drainage infrastructure (canals, ditches, and drains) could exacerbate saltwater exposure. However, studies assessing the effects of artificial drainage on the vulnerability of coastal landscapes to saltwater exposure are lacking. We examined the extent to which artificial drainage infrastructure has altered the potential for saltwater intrusion in the coastal plain of eastern North Carolina. Regional spatial analyses demonstrate that artificial drainages not only lower the overall elevation in coastal landscapes, but they also alter the routing and concentration of hydrological flows. Together, these factors have the potential to increase the total proportion of the landscape vulnerable to saltwater intrusion, not only in areas adjacent to drainage infrastructure but also in places where no artificial drainages exist due to large scale effects of flow rerouting. Among all land cover types in eastern North Carolina, wetlands are most vulnerable to saltwater exposure. Droughts and coastal storms associated with climate change potentially exacerbate vulnerability to saltwater facilitated by artificial drainage.

Author(s): Davis, KF; Bhattachan, A; D'Odorico, P; Suweis, S | Abstract: Climate change is expected to impact the habitability of many places around the world in significant and unprecedented ways in the coming decades. While previous studies have provided estimates of populations potentially exposed to various climate impacts, little work has been done to assess the number of people that may actually be displaced or where they will choose to go. Here we modify a diffusion-based model of human mobility in combination with population, geographic, and climatic data to estimate the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants as driven by sea level rise (SLR) in Bangladesh in the years 2050 and 2100. Using only maps of population and elevation, we predict that 0.9 million people (by year 2050) to 2.1 million people (by year 2100) could be displaced by direct inundation and that almost all of this movement will occur locally within the southern half of the country. We also find that destination locations should anticipate substantial additional demands on jobs (594 000), housing (197 000), and food (783 × 109 calories) by mid-century as a result of those displaced by SLR. By linking the sources of migrants displaced by SLR with their likely destinations, we demonstrate an effective approach for predicting climate-driven migrant flows, especially in data-limited settings.

Drought persistence in West African Sahel has often been explained as an effect of positive vegetation-atmosphere feedback associated with surface albedo or the partitioning of solar radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes. An often overlooked aspect of land-atmosphere coupling results from vegetation controls on dust emissions and the ability of mineral aerosols to suppress precipitation. Here we first consider the case of local (endogenous) dynamics within the Sahel, whereby enhanced dust emissions resulting from a decrease in vegetation partly suppress precipitation, thereby further reducing vegetation cover. We then account for teleconnections between Sahel precipitation and exogenous (i.e., Saharan) dust emissions due to an increase in Saharan wind speed in years of above average Sahel precipitation. We find that in both cases vegetation-climate dynamics may have two stable states, one with low precipitation and high concentration of atmospheric dust and the other with high precipitation and lower levels of atmospheric dust.

The soluble iron content and dust emission potential of sediment samples collected from the Taylor Valley in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) and sea ice in the McMurdo Sound were evaluated to determine whether inputs to the Southern Ocean may be sufficient to affect ocean productivity. Our results show that the dust-generating potential from the MDVs soils are comparable to those of sediments from other major dust sources in the Southern Hemisphere. Sediments from the MDVs and sea ice are one order of magnitude richer in soluble iron than those in other dust sources in the Southern Hemisphere. Forward trajectory analyses show that the dust from the MDVs is likely to be deposited in the Southern Ocean. These results provide evidence of the possible supply of soluble iron to the Southern Ocean associated with dust transport from the MDVs, should climate change expand the exposed areas of the continent.

Desert surfaces are typically stable and represent some of the longest-lived landforms on Earth. For surfaces devoid of vegetation, the evolution of a desert pavement of gravel and small stones protects the surface from erosion by wind and water and vegetation further protects the surface in arid and semi-arid rangelands. The susceptibility of the land surface to wind erosion is enhanced by mechanical damage to the desert pavement or vegetation losses resulting from fire or grazing. Despite the relatively rich literature on the effects of grazing and fire on plant community composition, land degradation, and the productivity of arid landscapes, little is known about the effects of moderate grazing or fire on the erodibility of soils in desert grasslands and shrublands. Here we investigate the effects of simulated moderate grazing, simulated livestock trampling, and of fire on the resulting wind erodibility and dust emissions of the affected soil surfaces. We surveyed 24 plots of the same size, 6m×0.6m, at a research site in the northern Chihuahuan Desert including 6 plots in a shrub-grass ecotone, 12 plots in an adjacent grassland, and 6 plots in an area that had been burned by a natural wildfire 6months earlier but had no vegetation recovery due to the time of year and drought. To evaluate the various effects of disturbances on the susceptibility of the surface to wind erosion and dust entrainment, replicates of three plots underwent different treatments including clipping, trampling, fire, and tillage. We subsequently tested each of the treated plots with a portable field wind tunnel run at 12.6ms−1. We found that moderate grazing and fire did not result in great soil loss in desert grasslands but that shrublands were more seriously affected by grazing and fire. Total removal of vegetation and disturbance of the soil surface did result in greater than order of magnitude increases of vertical sediment flux and greater than three-fold increases of dust emissions.

The impacts of climate change on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes are not fully understood, especially in savanna ecosystems. This study aimed to assess the potential impacts of climate change in soil C and N pools in the savannas. Soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) were quantified at four sites with consistent sandy soils along a precipitation gradient in the southern Africa savannas. Soils were sampled at 240 locations at each site at four depths: 10, 30, 70 and 120 cm. The driest site and the wettest site had the SOC content of 1,397 g m−2 and 1,982 g m−2, respectively. Mean C:N ratio was highest (26 ± 6) at the wettest site and lowest at the next-wettest (15 ± 2). Our results support the hypothesis of low nitrogen fixation in the area, particularly in the dry southern region. We found a significant spatial relationship between SOC/TN content and tree height or tree mass only in the driest. The Botswana Kalahari (BK) soil is estimated to contain about 0.99 × 1015 g C belowground of which about 92 % is SOC. Furthermore, under IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 carbon emission scenarios, total belowground C is predicted to drop to 0.92 and 0.86 × 1015 g C, respectively by the end of the century. Our results provide insight into soil C stocks in Kalahari savannas and suggest that savannas may be bigger stores of organic C than currently thought. The current climate change projections together with field measurements suggest that C storage in these savannas may decrease in the future as the region warms and dries into the next century.

Savannah ecosystems are important carbon stocks on the Earth, and their quantification is crucial for understanding the global impact of climate and land-use changes in savannahs. The estimation of aboveground/belowground plant biomass requires tested allometric relationships that can be used to determine total plant biomass as a function of easy-to-measure morphological indicators. Despite recent advances in savannah ecology, research on allometric relations in savannahs remains confined to a few site-specific studies where basal area is typically used as the main morphometric parameter with plant biomass. We investigate allometric relations at four sites along a 950-km transect in the Kalahari across mean rainfall gradient 170 mm yr-1-550 mm yr-1. Using data from 342 harvested trees/shrubs, we relate basal area, height and crown diameter to aboveground biomass. These relationships are strongest in trees and weakest in small shrubs. Strong allometric relationships are also determined for morphologically similar groups of woody vegetation. We show that crown diameter can be used as an alternative to basal area in allometric relationships with plant biomass. This finding may enhance the ability to determine aboveground biomass over large areas using high-resolution aerial or satellite imagery without requiring ground-based measurements of basal area. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[1] The Southern Hemisphere shows relatively low levels of atmospheric dust concentrations. Dust concentrations could, however, increase as a result of losses of vegetation cover in the southern Kalahari. There is some evidence of an ongoing remobilization of stabilized dunefields in the southern Kalahari where dune crests with sparse vegetation cover are reactivated during dry and windy periods, a phenomenon that is predicted to intensify with increased land degradation, overgrazing, and droughts. Despite the potentially important climatic and biogeochemical implications of dust emissions from the Kalahari, it is still unclear whether the predicted remobilization of the Kalahari dunes could be associated with increased dust emissions from this region. The dependence of sediment fluxes and dust emissions on vegetation cover in the Kalahari dunelands remains poorly understood, which prevents a quantitative assessment of possible changes in aeolian activity in this region under different land use and land cover scenarios. In this study, we report the results of an aeolian sediment sampling campaign over a variety of land covers in the southern Kalahari. We use these results to quantify the potential rate of dust emissions and its dependence on vegetation cover and to make an estimate of dust fluxes from a portion of the southern Kalahari. The results show that the loss of vegetation could lead to substantial increases in dust emission and nutrient loss.

Desertification is a change in soil properties, vegetation or climate, which results in a persistent loss of ecosystem services that are fundamental to sustaining life. Desertification affects large dryland areas around the world and is a major cause of stress in human societies. Here we review recent research on the drivers, feedbacks, and impacts of desertification. A multidisciplinary approach to understanding the drivers and feedbacks of global desertification is motivated by our increasing need to improve global food production and to sustainably manage ecosystems in the context of climate change. Classic desertification theories look at this process as a transition between stable states in bistable ecosystem dynamics. Climate change (i.e., aridification) and land use dynamics are the major drivers of an ecosystem shift to a “desertified” (or “degraded”) state. This shift is typically sustained by positive feedbacks, which stabilize the system in the new state. Desertification feedbacks may involve land degradation processes (e.g., nutrient loss or salinization), changes in rainfall regime resulting from land-atmosphere interactions (e.g., precipitation recycling, dust emissions), or changes in plant community composition (e.g., shrub encroachment, decrease in vegetation cover). We analyze each of these feedback mechanisms and discuss their possible enhancement by interactions with socio-economic drivers. Large scale effects of desertification include the emigration of “environmental refugees” displaced from degraded areas, climatic changes, and the alteration of global biogeochemical cycles resulting from the emission and long-range transport of fine mineral dust. Recent research has identified some possible early warning signs of desertification, which can be used as indicators of resilience loss and imminent shift to desert-like conditions. We conclude with a brief discussion on some desertification control strategies implemented in different regions around the world.

Research on ecosystem and societal response to global environmental change typically considers the effects of shifts in mean climate conditions. There is, however, some evidence of ongoing changes also in the variance of hydrologic and climate fluctuations. A relatively high interannual variability is a distinctive feature of the hydrologic regime of dryland regions, particularly at the desert margins. Hydrologic variability has an important impact on ecosystem dynamics, food security and societal reliance on ecosystem services in water-limited environments. Here, we investigate some of the current patterns of hydrologic variability in drylands around the world and review the major effects of hydrologic fluctuations on ecosystem resilience, maintenance of biodiversity and food security. We show that random hydrologic fluctuations may enhance the resilience of dryland ecosystems by obliterating bistable deterministic behaviours and threshold-like responses to external drivers. Moreover, by increasing biodiversity and the associated ecosystem redundancy, hydrologic variability can indirectly enhance post-disturbance recovery, i.e. ecosystem resilience.

The supply of soluble iron through atmospheric dust deposition limits the productivity of the Southern Ocean. In comparison to the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere exhibits low levels of dust activity. However, given their proximity to the Southern Ocean, dust emissions from continental sources in the Southern Hemisphere could have disproportionate impact on ocean productivity. Australia is the largest source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere and aeolian transport of dust has major ecological, economic and health implications. In the Mallee, agriculture is a major driver of dust emissions and dust storms that affect Southeastern Australia. In this study, we assess the dust generating potential of the sediment from the Mallee, analyze the sediment for soluble iron content and determine the likely depositional region of the emitted dust. Our results suggest that the Mallee sediments have comparable dust generating potential to other currently active dust sources in the Southern Hemisphere and the dust-sized fraction is rich in soluble iron. Forward trajectory analyses show that this dust will impact the Tasman Sea and the Australian section of the Southern Ocean. This iron-rich dust could stimulate ocean productivity in future as more areas are reactivated as a result of land-use and droughts. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Many dune fields around the world have undergone alternating periods of mobilization and stabilization in response to changes in wind power and rainfall. However, in modern times disturbances associated with land use are believed to be a dominant factor contributing to the activation of stabilized vegetated dunes in drylands, while the reduction in human activities such as grazing and farming may lead to stabilization of once active dune fields. The Kalahari region of southern Africa has recently begun to exhibit visible signs of dune mobilization, a process that could lead to an activation of aeolian transport in the region with important implications for the biogeochemistry of downwind terrestrial and marine ecosystems. It is still unclear whether the region is poised at a tipping point between its current state (i.e., vegetated fixed linear dunes), and a "degraded" state (i.e., barren and active dunes). Here we investigate the ability of the landscape to recover from the degraded state by assessing the resilience of duneland vegetation and evaluating the vegetation and soil characteristics. Using field observations and soil seed bank experiments, we show that palatable perennial grass cover is reduced while the seedbank is depleted on grazed dunefields. Conversely, the interdunes generally exhibit relatively rich seed banks. Soils from grazed and ungrazed sites show that plant available nutrient contents are not significantly different; therefore, soil nutrients are likely not a major factor limiting the recovery of perennial vegetation in this region. It is observed that the perennial grasses reestablish on the recovering dunes after grazers have been excluded, indicating that the landscape is still able to recover after years of denudation and that any irreversible shift to a stable degraded state is likely during extended periods of disturbance and/or climatic shifts that promote the degraded state. We also find that changes in grass cover, grass community composition, and seed bank can serve as indicators of whether the system has irreversibly shifted from a vegetated to a bare dune state. © 2014 Bhattachan et al.

The relative importance of resource competition and disturbance in limiting woody cover is one of the most basic questions in savanna ecology. Modeling approaches that seek to address this question are limited in their ability to accurately represent resource competition, which occurs belowground, by the limited detail of existing data on root system structure. Using compressed air, we excavated individual trees and shrubs and mapped their coarse roots on a three-dimensional grid system up to 1.5 m depth. We excavated four woody savanna species at three sites spanning a climate gradient on the Kalahari Transect in southern Africa and determined functions to describe the distribution of root biomass within the root systems. Overall, most of the variation in both large-scale and small-scale characteristics of root system structure was related to species. The species excavated fell into two groups that coexisted across the climate gradient. Acacia mellifera and Terminalia sericea had straight roots in a laterally extensive system that was shallow relative to the aggregate root profile for woody plants at the sites. Boscia albitrunca and Ochna pulchra had sinuous roots that were mostly concentrated beneath the canopy and were more prevalent in deep than near-surface soil layers, departing from the conventional model of decreasing root abundance with depth. Based on our results, we suggest a reframing of the theoretical characterization of the root zone used in modeling approaches to consider diversity within the woody plant community.

Most sources of atmospheric dust on Earth are located in the Northern Hemisphere. The lower dust emissions in the Southern Hemisphere in part limit the supply of micronutrients (primarily soluble iron) to the Southern Ocean, thereby constraining its productivity. Climate and land use change can alter the current distribution of dust source regions on Earth. Can new dust sources be activated in the Southern Hemisphere? Here we show that vegetation loss and dune remobilization in the Southern Kalahari can promote dust emissions comparable to those observed from major contemporary dust sources in the Southern African region. Dust generation experiments support the hypothesis that, in the Southern Kalahari, aeolian deposits that are currently mostly stabilized by savanna vegetation are capable of emitting substantial amounts of dust from interdune areas. We show that dust from these areas is relatively rich in soluble iron, an important micronutrient for ocean productivity. Trajectory analyses show that dust from the Kalahari commonly reaches the Southern Ocean and could therefore enhance its productivity.

In Southern Africa, the Makgadikgadi Pan in Botswana and the Etosha Pan in Namibia are two of the major dust sources in the Southern Hemisphere. Dust from Southern Africa could play an important role in sustaining the productivity of the surrounding terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, very little is known about the biogeochemical properties of dust from this region. In this study, we analyze sediments from the Makgadikgadi and Etosha salt pans and the Kalahari dunes and compare the total nitrogen, total phosphorous, soluble iron and common anions between the soil fine fraction (