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Abstract Advanced and metastatic estrogen receptor‐positive (ER+) breast cancers are often endocrine resistant. However, endocrine therapy remains the primary treatment for all advanced ER+ breast cancers. Treatment options that may benefit resistant cancers, such as add‐on drugs that target resistance pathways or switching to chemotherapy, are only available after progression on endocrine therapy. Here we developed an endocrine therapy prognostic model for early and advanced ER+ breast cancers. The endocrine resistance (ENDORSE) model is composed of two components, each based on the empirical cumulative distribution function of ranked expression of gene signatures. These signatures include a feature set associated with long‐term survival outcomes on endocrine therapy selected using lasso‐regularized Cox regression and a pathway‐based curated set of genes expressed in response to estrogen. We extensively validated ENDORSE in multiple ER+ clinical trial datasets and demonstrated superior and consistent performance of the model over clinical covariates, proliferation markers, and multiple published signatures. Finally, genomic and pathway analyses in patient data revealed possible mechanisms that may help develop rational stratification strategies for endocrine‐resistant ER+ breast cancer patients.

Rotavirus is the most common pathogen causing pediatric diarrhea and an important cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Previous evidence suggests that the introduction of rotavirus vaccines in national immunization schedules resulted in dramatic declines in disease burden but may also be changing the rotavirus genetic landscape and driving the emergence of new genotypes. We report genotype data of more than 16,000 rotavirus isolates from 40 countries participating in the Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network. Data from a convenience sample of children under five years of age hospitalized with acute watery diarrhea who tested positive for rotavirus were included. Country results were weighted by their estimated rotavirus disease burden to estimate regional genotype distributions. Globally, the most frequent genotypes identified after weighting were G1P[8] (31%), G1P[6] (8%) and G3P[8] (8%). Genotypes varied across WHO Regions and between countries that had and had not introduced rotavirus vaccine. G1P[8] was less frequent among African (36 vs 20%) and European (33 vs 8%) countries that had introduced rotavirus vaccines as compared to countries that had not introduced. Our results describe differences in the distribution of the most common rotavirus genotypes in children with diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries. G1P[8] was less frequent in countries that had introduced the rotavirus vaccine while different strains are emerging or re-emerging in different regions.

Introduction Diarrhoea remains a leading cause of child morbidity and mortality. Systematically collected and analysed data on the aetiology of hospitalised diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries are needed to prioritise interventions.Methods We established the Global Pediatric Diarrhea Surveillance network, in which children under 5 years hospitalised with diarrhoea were enrolled at 33 sentinel surveillance hospitals in 28 low-income and middle-income countries. Randomly selected stool specimens were tested by quantitative PCR for 16 causes of diarrhoea. We estimated pathogen-specific attributable burdens of diarrhoeal hospitalisations and deaths. We incorporated country-level incidence to estimate the number of pathogen-specific deaths on a global scale.Results During 2017–2018, 29 502 diarrhoea hospitalisations were enrolled, of which 5465 were randomly selected and tested. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea requiring hospitalisation (attributable fraction (AF) 33.3%; 95% CI 27.7 to 40.3), followed by Shigella (9.7%; 95% CI 7.7 to 11.6), norovirus (6.5%; 95% CI 5.4 to 7.6) and adenovirus 40/41 (5.5%; 95% CI 4.4 to 6.7). Rotavirus was the leading cause of hospitalised diarrhoea in all regions except the Americas, where the leading aetiologies were Shigella (19.2%; 95% CI 11.4 to 28.1) and norovirus (22.2%; 95% CI 17.5 to 27.9) in Central and South America, respectively. The proportion of hospitalisations attributable to rotavirus was approximately 50% lower in sites that had introduced rotavirus vaccine (AF 20.8%; 95% CI 18.0 to 24.1) compared with sites that had not (42.1%; 95% CI 33.2 to 53.4). Globally, we estimated 208 009 annual rotavirus-attributable deaths (95% CI 169 561 to 259 216), 62 853 Shigella-attributable deaths (95% CI 48 656 to 78 805), 36 922 adenovirus 40/41-attributable deaths (95% CI 28 469 to 46 672) and 35 914 norovirus-attributable deaths (95% CI 27 258 to 46 516).Conclusions Despite the substantial impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction, rotavirus remained the leading cause of paediatric diarrhoea hospitalisations. Improving the efficacy and coverage of rotavirus vaccination and prioritising interventions against Shigella, norovirus and adenovirus could further reduce diarrhoea morbidity and mortality.

BackgroundSouthern China is at risk for arborvirus disease transmission, including Zika virus and dengue. Patients often present to clinical care with non-specific acute febrile illnesses (AFI). To better describe the etiology of AFI, we implemented a two-year AFI surveillance project at five sentinel hospitals in Yunnan and Guangdong Provinces.MethodsBetween June 2017 and August 2019, we enrolled patients between 2 and 65 years of age presenting at one sentinel hospital in Mengla County, Yunnan, and four in Jiangmen City, Guangdong, with symptoms of AFI (acute onset of fever ≥ 37.5°C within the past 7 days) without respiratory symptoms or diarrhea. Demographic, epidemiologic, and clinical information was obtained and entered into a web-based AFI surveillance database. A custom TaqMan Array card (TAC) was used to test patients' whole blood specimens for 27 different pathogens using real-time polymerase chain reaction assays.ResultsDuring the two-year project period, 836 patients were enrolled; 443 patients from Mengla County and 393 patients from Jiangmen City. The median age was 33 years [range: 2-65], and most were hospitalized [641, 77%]. Of 796 patients with valid TAC results, 341 (43%) were positive for at least one of the 10 unique pathogens detected. This included 205 (26%) patients positive for dengue virus, 60 (8%) for Orientia tsutsugamushi, and 42 (5%) for Coxiella burnetii. Ten patients (1%) in Jiangmen City tested positive for malaria, 8 of whom reported recent travel outside of China. TAC results were negative for 455 (57%) patients. None of the patients had a positive TAC detection for Zika virus.ConclusionsThe project detected variability in the etiology of AFI in Southern China and highlighted the importance of differential diagnosis. Dengue, O. tsutsugamushi, and C. burnetii were the most frequently identified pathogens among enrolled AFI patients. As a non-notifiable disease, the frequent detection of C. burnetii is noteworthy and warrants additional investigation. The project provided a framework for routine surveillance for persons presenting with AFI.

Understanding the distribution of pathogens causing acute febrile illness (AFI) is important for clinical management of patients in resource-poor settings. We evaluated the proportion of AFI caused by specific pathogens among outpatients in Bangladesh. During May 2019-March 2020, physicians screened patients aged ≥2 years in outpatient departments of four tertiary level public hospitals. We randomly enrolled patients having measured fever (≥100.4°F) during assessment with onset within the past 14 days. Blood and urine samples were tested at icddr,b through rapid diagnostic tests, bacterial culture, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Acute and convalescent samples were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USA) for Rickettsia and Orientia (R/O) and Leptospira tests. Among 690 patients, 69 (10%) had enteric fever (Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi orSalmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi), 51 (7.4%) Escherichia coli, and 28 (4.1%) dengue detected. Of the 441 patients tested for R/O, 39 (8.8%) had rickettsioses. We found 7 (2%) Leptospira cases among the 403 AFI patients tested. Nine patients (1%) were hospitalized, and none died. The highest proportion of enteric fever (15%, 36/231) and rickettsioses (14%, 25/182) was in Rajshahi. Dhaka had the most dengue cases (68%, 19/28). R/O affected older children and young adults (IQR 8-23 years) and was detected more frequently in the 21-25 years age-group (17%, 12/70). R/O was more likely to be found in patients in Rajshahi region than in Sylhet (aOR 2.49, 95% CI 0.85-7.32) between July and December (aOR 2.01, 1.01-5.23), and who had a history of recent animal entry inside their house than not (aOR 2.0, 0.93-4.3). Gram-negative Enterobacteriaceae were the most common bacterial infections, and dengue was the most common viral infection among AFI patients in Bangladeshi hospitals, though there was geographic variability. These results can help guide empiric outpatient AFI management.

BackgroundSevere acute respiratory illness (SARI) is an important cause of mortality in young children, especially in children living with HIV infection. Disparities in SARI death in children aged ObjectiveTo compare the factors associated with in-hospital death among children aged MethodsData were collected from hospitalized children with SARI in one urban and two rural sentinel surveillance hospitals. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA using polymerase chain reaction. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify patient and clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital death.ResultsFrom 2009 through 2013, 5,297 children aged ConclusionWe found that the case-fatality proportion was substantially higher among children admitted to rural hospitals and HIV infected children with SARI in South Africa. While efforts to prevent and treat HIV infections in children may reduce SARI deaths, further efforts to address health care inequality in rural populations are needed.

Aim: Therapeutic targeting of BRAF alterations in primary brain tumor patients has demonstrated clinical activity in case reports and early trials; however, there is limited high-level evidence of the efficacy. Patients & results: Targeting BRAF V600E mutations with concurrent dabrafenib and trametinib in anaplastic pleomorphic xanthoastrocytoma resulted in a transient radiographic and clinical response and no therapeutic benefit in a patient with an epithelioid glioblastoma. Conclusion: BRAF/MEK inhibition did not produce a durable treatment effect in glioblastoma or pleomorphic xanthoastrocytoma with BRAF V600E alterations. Heterogenicity of related cases in the literature makes an evaluation of efficacy BRAF targeting therapies in gliomas difficult and requires additional investigation.

Summary: Background: Rotavirus vaccine use in national immunisation programmes has led to declines in hospital admissions for rotavirus gastroenteritis among children; however, the global impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction has not been described using primary data. We describe the impact of rotavirus vaccine introduction on admissions for acute rotavirus gastroenteritis in primarily low-income and middle-income countries, using 9 years of data from the WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (GRSN). Methods: Between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016, children younger than 5 years of age who were admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis were prospectively enrolled in GRSN sites. We included sites that enrolled children and collected stool specimens monthly and tested at least 100 specimens annually in the impact analysis, with a separate analysis taking into account site continuity. We compared proportions of acute gastroenteritis cases positive for rotavirus in the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine periods and calculated mean proportion changes for WHO regions, with 95% CIs; these findings were then compared with interrupted time series analyses. We did further sensitivity analyses to account for rotavirus vaccination coverage levels and sites that collected specimens for at least 11 months per year and tested at least 80 specimens per year. We also analysed the age distribution of rotavirus-positive cases before and after vaccine introduction. Findings: 403 140 children younger than 5 years of age admitted to hospital with acute gastroenteritis from 349 sites in 82 countries were enrolled over the study period, of whom 132 736 (32·9%) were positive for rotavirus. We included 305 789 children from 198 sites in 69 countries in the impact analysis. In countries that had not introduced rotavirus vaccine in their national immunisation programmes, rotavirus was detected in 38·0% (95% CI 4·8–73·4) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis annually whereas in those that have introduced the vaccine, rotavirus was detected in 23·0% (0·7–57·7) of admissions for acute gastroenteritis, showing a 39·6% (35·4–43·8) relative decline following introduction. Interrupted time series analyses confirmed these findings. Reductions by WHO regions ranged from 26·4% (15·0–37·8) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region to 55·2% (43·0–67·4) in the European Region and were sustained in nine countries (contributing up to 31 sites) for 6–10 years. The age distribution of children with rotavirus gastroenteritis shifted towards older children after rotavirus vaccine introduction. Interpretation: A significant and sustained reduction in the proportion of hospital admissions for acute gastroenteritis due to rotavirus was seen among children younger than 5 years in GRSN sites following rotavirus vaccine introduction. These findings highlight the need to incorporate rotavirus vaccines into immunisation programmes in countries that have not yet introduced them and underline the importance of high-quality surveillance. Funding: The GRSN receives funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. No specific funding was provided for this Article.

In 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) proposed a new severe influenza surveillance case definition, which has not been evaluated in a high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence setting. Our study aimed to assess the performance of this proposed case definition in identifying influenza among HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected children aged

Abstract The signaling events that drive familial breast cancer (FBC) risk remain poorly understood. While the majority of genomic studies have focused on genetic risk variants, known risk variants account for at most 30% of FBC cases. Considering that multiple genes may influence FBC risk, we hypothesized that a pathway‐based strategy examining different data types from multiple tissues could elucidate the biological basis for FBC. In this study, we performed integrated analyses of gene expression and exome‐sequencing data from peripheral blood mononuclear cells and showed that cell adhesion pathways are significantly and consistently dysregulated in women who develop FBC. The dysregulation of cell adhesion pathways in high‐risk women was also identified by pathway‐based profiling applied to normal breast tissue data from two independent cohorts. The results of our genomic analyses were validated in normal primary mammary epithelial cells from high‐risk and control women, using cell‐based functional assays, drug‐response assays, fluorescence microscopy, and Western blotting assays. Both genomic and cell‐based experiments indicate that cell–cell and cell–extracellular matrix adhesion processes seem to be disrupted in non‐malignant cells of women at high risk for FBC and suggest a potential role for these processes in FBC development.

Limited information is available on influenza virus sequence drift between transmission events. In countries with high HIV burdens, like South Africa, the direct and indirect effect of HIV on influenza sequence drift between transmission events may be of public health concern. To this end, we measured hemagglutinin sequence diversity between influenza transmission events using data and specimens from a study investigating household transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza viruses in 2 peri-urban communities in South Africa during the 2013 influenza season. Thirty index cases and 107 of 110 eligible household contacts were enrolled into the study, 47% (14/30) demonstrating intra-household laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission. In this study 35 partial hemagglutinin gene sequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing from 11 index cases (sampled at enrolment only) and 16 secondary cases (8 cases sampled at 1 and 8 cases sampled at 2 time-points). Viral sequence identities confirmed matched influenza transmission pairs within the 11 households with corresponding sequenced index and secondary cases. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 10 different influenza viral lineages in the 14 households. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strains were shown to be genetically distinct between the 2 communities (from distinct geographic regions), which was not observed for the influenza A(H3N2) strains. Intra-host/intra-household influenza A(H3N2) sequence drift was identified in 2 households. The first was a synonymous mutation between the index case and a household contact, and the second a non-synonymous mutation between 2 serial samples taken at days 0 and 4 post enrolment from an HIV-infected secondary case. Limited inter-household sequence diversity was observed as highlighted by sharing of the same influenza strain between different households within each community. The limited intra-household sequence drift is in line with previous studies also using Sanger sequencing, corroborating the presence of strict selective bottlenecks that limit sequence variance. We were not able to directly ascertain the effect of HIV on influenza sequence drift between transmission events.

BACKGROUND:Studies describing the epidemiology of influenza B lineages in South Africa are lacking. METHODS:We conducted a prospective study to describe the circulation of influenza B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages among patients of all ages enrolled in South Africa through three respiratory illness surveillance systems between 2005 and 2014: (i) the Viral Watch (VW) program enrolled outpatients with influenza-like illness (ILI) from private healthcare facilities during 2005-2014; (ii) the influenza-like illnesses program enrolled outpatients in public healthcare clinics (ILI/PHC) during 2012-2014; and (iii) the severe acute respiratory illnesses (SARI) program enrolled inpatients from public hospitals during 2009-2014. Influenza B viruses were detected by virus isolation during 2005 to 2009 and by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction from 2009-2014. Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients hospitalized with SARI and infected with different influenza B lineages were also compared using unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS:Influenza viruses were detected in 22% (8,706/39,804) of specimens from patients with ILI or SARI during 2005-2014, of which 24% (2,087) were positive for influenza B. Influenza B viruses predominated in all three surveillance systems in 2010. B/Victoria predominated prior to 2011 (except 2008) whereas B/Yamagata predominated thereafter (except 2012). B lineages co-circulated in all seasons, except in 2013 and 2014 for SARI and ILI/PHC surveillance. Among influenza B-positive SARI cases, the detection of influenza B/Yamagata compared to influenza B/Victoria was significantly higher in individuals aged 45-64 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1-16.5) and ≥65 years (aOR: 12.2; 95% CI: 2.3-64.4) compared to children aged 0-4 years, but was significantly lower in HIV-infected patients (aOR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2-0.9). CONCLUSION:B lineages co-circulated in most seasons except in 2013 and 2014. Hospitalized SARI cases display differential susceptibility for the two influenza B lineages, with B/Victoria being more prevalent among children and HIV-infected persons.

BACKGROUND:The South African Department of Health (DOH) publishes annual guidelines identifying priority groups, including immunosuppressed individuals and healthcare workers (HCW), for influenza vaccination and treatment. How these guidelines have impacted HCW and their patients, particularly those infected with HIV, remains unknown. METHODS:We aimed to describe the knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding influenza and the vaccine among South African HCW. Surveys were distributed by two local non-governmental organizations in public health clinics and hospitals in 21 districts/municipalities (5 of 9 provinces). RESULTS:There were 1164 respondents; median age 41 years; 978/1126 (87%) female; 801/1122 (71%) nurses. One-third (34%) of HCW reported getting influenza vaccine 2013/2014 and most (94%) recommended influenza vaccine to patients infected with HIV. Ability to get vaccine free of charge (aOR 1.69; 95% CI 1.21-2.37) and having received influenza government training (aOR 1.50; 95% CI 1.04-2.15) were significantly associated with self-reported vaccination in 2013/2014. Self-reported 2013/2014 vaccination (aOR 3.76; 95% CI 1.28-11.03) and availability of influenza vaccine during the healthcare visit (aOR 2.56; 95% CI 1.18-5.57) were significantly associated with recommending influenza vaccine to patients infected with HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSION:Only one-third of participants were vaccinated in 2013-2014 but those who were vaccinated were more likely to recommend vaccination to their patients. Free and close access to influenza vaccine were associated with a higher likelihood of getting vaccinated in 2013/2014. HCW who reported getting the influenza vaccine themselves, had vaccine to offer during the patient consult and were familiar with DOH guidelines/trainings were more likely to recommend vaccine to HIV-infected patients.

OBJECTIVE: To compare sentinel and population-based surveillance of the effect of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7), introduced in 2000, on the hospitalization of children aged under 5 years with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in the United States of America. METHODS: Population surveillance data were used to identify children hospitalized between 1998 and 2006 with IPD caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes. The change from 1998 and 1999 (baseline) to 2006 in the number of hospitalized IPD cases recorded by sentinel surveillance systems involving single hospitals or groups of hospitals was compared with the change in the incidence of hospitalized IPD cases measured by population-based surveillance. FINDINGS: The change in incidence in the eight surveillance areas varied from -37 to -82% for IPD caused by any serotype and from -96 to -100% for IPD caused by serotypes contained in PCV7. All individual sentinel hospitals with more than three cases annually at baseline reported a decrease in cases by 2006. In addition, over 95% of sentinel systems with an average of more than 30 cases annually at baseline recorded a change by 2006 in the number of cases caused by any serotype that fell within the 95% confidence interval for the change in the incidence of hospitalized cases in the corresponding population surveillance area. The change in cases caused by PCV7 serotypes was accurately measured by 93% and 100% of sentinel systems with < 20 and > 20 cases annually at baseline, respectively. CONCLUSION: Sentinel surveillance can accurately measure the effect of PCV7 on the number of children hospitalized with IPD, provided sufficient cases are detected at baseline. Serotyping increases accuracy.

Pneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Effective vaccine and non-vaccine interventions to prevent and control pneumonia are urgently needed to reduce the global burden of the disease. This paper explores practical strategies and policies for integrating interventions to prevent and treat pneumonia with routine immunization services, and it investigates the challenges involved in such integration. The primary pneumonia prevention and treatment strategies that are implemented during routine childhood immunization visits are vaccination of children against the disease, caretaker education and referral of children to medical services when necessary.

Abstract Identifying the best drug for each cancer patient requires an efficient individualized strategy. We present MATCH (Merging genomic and pharmacologic Analyses for Therapy CHoice), an approach using public genomic resources and drug testing of fresh tumor samples to link drugs to patients. Valproic acid (VPA) is highlighted as a proof‐of‐principle. In order to predict specific tumor types with high probability of drug sensitivity, we create drug response signatures using publically available gene expression data and assess sensitivity in a data set of >40 cancer types. Next, we evaluate drug sensitivity in matched tumor and normal tissue and exclude cancer types that are no more sensitive than normal tissue. From these analyses, breast tumors are predicted to be sensitive to VPA. A meta‐analysis across breast cancer data sets shows that aggressive subtypes are most likely to be sensitive to VPA, but all subtypes have sensitive tumors. MATCH predictions correlate significantly with growth inhibition in cancer cell lines and three‐dimensional cultures of fresh tumor samples. MATCH accurately predicts reduction in tumor growth rate following VPA treatment in patient tumor xenografts. MATCH uses genomic analysis with in vitro testing of patient tumors to select optimal drug regimens before clinical trial initiation.

Infectious diseases and underlying medical conditions common to Africa may affect influenza frequency and severity. We conducted a systematic review of published studies on influenza and the following co-infections or co-morbidities that are prevalent in Africa: dengue, malaria, measles, meningococcus, Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP), hemoglobinopathies, and malnutrition. Articles were identified except for influenza and PCP. Very few studies were from Africa. Sickle cell disease, dengue, and measles co-infection were found to increase the severity of influenza disease, though this is based on few studies of dengue and measles and the measles study was of low quality. The frequency of influenza was increased among patients with sickle cell disease. Influenza infection increased the frequency of meningococcal disease. Studies on malaria and malnutrition found mixed results. Age-adjusted morbidity and mortality from influenza may be more common in Africa because infections and diseases common in the region lead to more severe outcomes and increase the influenza burden. However, gaps exist in our knowledge about these interactions.

BackgroundThe World Health Organisation recommends outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) and inpatient severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance. We evaluated two influenza surveillance systems in South Africa: one for ILI and another for SARI.MethodologyThe Viral Watch (VW) programme has collected virological influenza surveillance data voluntarily from patients with ILI since 1984 in private and public clinics in all 9 South African provinces. The SARI surveillance programme has collected epidemiological and virological influenza surveillance data since 2009 in public hospitals in 4 provinces by dedicated personnel. We compared nine surveillance system attributes from 2009-2012.ResultsWe analysed data from 18,293 SARI patients and 9,104 ILI patients. The annual proportion of samples testing positive for influenza was higher for VW (mean 41%) than SARI (mean 8%) and generally exceeded the seasonal threshold from May to September (VW: weeks 21-40; SARI: weeks 23-39). Data quality was a major strength of SARI (most data completion measures >90%; adherence to definitions: 88-89%) and a relative weakness of the VW programme (62% of forms complete, with limited epidemiologic data collected; adherence to definitions: 65-82%). Timeliness was a relative strength of both systems (e.g. both collected >93% of all respiratory specimens within 7 days of symptom onset). ILI surveillance was more nationally representative, financially sustainable and expandable than the SARI system. Though the SARI programme is not nationally representative, the high quality and detail of SARI data collection sheds light on the local burden and epidemiology of severe influenza-associated disease.ConclusionsTo best monitor influenza in South Africa, we propose that both ILI and SARI should be under surveillance. Improving ILI surveillance will require better quality and more systematic data collection, and SARI surveillance should be expanded to be more nationally representative, even if this requires scaling back on information gathered.

Published data on the interaction between influenza and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are limited. We aimed to estimate the influenza-associated mortality among individuals with PTB in South Africa from 1999-2009.We modelled the excess influenza-associated mortality by applying Poisson regression models to monthly PTB and non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths, using laboratory-confirmed influenza as a covariate.PTB deaths increased each winter, coinciding with influenza virus circulation. Among individuals of any age, mean annual influenza-associated PTB mortality rate was 164/100,000 person-years (n = 439). The rate of non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths was 27/100,000 (n = 1125) for HIV-infected and 5/100,000 (n = 2367) for HIV-uninfected individuals of all ages. Among individuals aged

There are few published studies describing severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) epidemiology amongst older children and adults from high HIV-prevalence settings. We aimed to describe SARI epidemiology amongst individuals aged ≥5 years in South Africa.We conducted prospective surveillance for individuals with SARI from 2009-2012. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten viruses, and blood for pneumococcal DNA. Cumulative annual SARI incidence was estimated at one site with population denominators.We enrolled 7193 individuals, 9% (621/7067) tested positive for influenza and 9% (600/6519) for pneumococcus. HIV-prevalence was 74% (4663/6334). Among HIV-infected individuals with available data, 41% of 2629 were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). The annual SARI hospitalisation incidence ranged from 325-617/100,000 population. HIV-infected individuals experienced a 13-19 times greater SARI incidence than HIV-uninfected individuals (p7 days rather than

Data on the burden and risk groups for influenza-associated mortality from Africa are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence and risk-factors for in-hospital influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) deaths.Hospitalised patients with SARI were enrolled prospectively in four provinces of South Africa from 2009-2013. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA. The incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths was estimated at one urban hospital with a defined catchment population.We enrolled 1376 patients with influenza-associated SARI and 3% (41 of 1358 with available outcome data) died. In patients with available HIV-status, the case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in HIV-infected (5%, 22/419) than HIV-uninfected individuals (2%, 13/620; p = 0.006). CFPs varied by age group, and generally increased with increasing age amongst individuals >5 years (p

The screening method, which employs readily available data, is an inexpensive and quick means of estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE). We compared estimates of effectiveness of heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) using the screening and case-control methods. Cases were children aged 19-35 months with pneumococcus isolated from normally sterile sites residing in Active Bacterial Core surveillance areas in the United States. Case-control VE was estimated for 2001-2004 by comparing the odds of vaccination among cases and community controls. Screening-method VE for 2001-2009 was estimated by comparing the proportion of cases vaccinated to National Immunization Survey-derived coverage among the general population. To evaluate the plausibility of screening-method VE findings, we estimated attack rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. We identified 1,154 children with IPD. Annual population PCV7 coverage with ≥1 dose increased from 38% to 97%. Case-control VE for ≥1 dose was estimated as 75% against all-serotype IPD (annual range: 35-83%) and 91% for PCV7-type IPD (annual range: 65-100%). By the screening method, the overall VE was 86% for ≥1 dose (annual range: -240-70%) against all-serotype IPD and 94% (annual range: 62-97%) against PCV7-type IPD. As cases of PCV7-type IPD declined during 2001-2005, estimated attack rates for all-serotype IPD among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals became less consistent than what would be expected with the estimated effectiveness of PCV7. The screening method yields estimates of VE that are highly dependent on the time period during which it is used and the choice of outcome. The method should be used cautiously to evaluate VE of PCVs.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a leading infectious disease killer worldwide, yet the burden in China is not well understood as much of the data is published in the non-English literature. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We systematically reviewed the Chinese- and English-language literature for studies with primary data on pneumonia incidence and mortality in mainland China. Between 1985 and 2008, 37 studies met the inclusion criteria. The quality of the studies was highly variable. For children