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The mission and objectives of the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES) for Models, Tools and HPC services.

A white paper setting out strategic requirements of the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES) Climate Data Infrastructure (CDI).

The European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES) has operated since 2001 to support advances in climate modelling and understanding. ENES has been supported by a succession of infrastructure projects (IS-ENES, IS-ENES2, and IS-ENES3; 2009-2022) as well as by an HPC Centre of Excellence (ESiWACE, ESiWACE2; 2015-2022). These activities, carried across multiple institutions exploiting mutual support, have been delivering on a community infrastructure strategy first published in 2012 and updated in 2017 [isenes2012, isenes2017], and jointly deliver the ENES Research Infrastructure (ENES-RI). The data service element, also known as the ENES Climate Data Infrastructure (ENES-CDI), provides a range of services which are critical for the efficient exchange and exploitation of coordinatedclimate simulations which underpin major advances in climate science and decisions on social, political and economic adjustments associated with climate change. This document outlines the overall objectives of the ENES climate data infrastructure, with some detail in terms of current activities, and near-term aspirations. It will be updated as the community infrastructure strategy evolves. &nbsp

La presente publicación, el primer volumen de dos libros previstos sobre el tema, se centra en describir los resultados de los trabajos que se han realizado desde Puertos del Estado, el IMEDEA y AEMET para la caracterización de la evolución de las variables climáticas a lo largo del Siglo XXI. Los datos expuestos son el resultado de un enorme esfuerzo de computación numérica establecido a lo largo de 7 años en una serie de proyectos de investigación financiados por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad y por el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y su generación ha sido también posible gracias a la colaboración con multitud de centros internacionales de referencia, como MeteoFrance y Mercatorocean en Francia, o el National Oceanography Centre, en Reino Unido. Estos trabajos se enmarcan, además, en la estrategia española sobre cambio climático, y están coordinados con las actividades de la Oficina Española de Cambio Climático.

International audience; Although future increases in water temperature and future changes in regional circulation are expected to have great impacts on the pelagic food-web, estimates focusing on community-level shifts are still lacking for the planktonic compartment. By combining statistical niche models (or species distribution models) with projections from a regional circulation model, the impact of climate change on copepod epipelagic communities is assessed for the Mediterranean Sea. Habitat suitability maps are generated for 106 of the most abundant copepod species to analyze emerging patterns of diversity at the community level. Using variance analysis, we also quantified the uncertainties associated to our modeling strategy (niche model choice, CO2 emission scenario, boundary forcings of the circulation model). Comparing present and future projections, changes in species richness (alpha diversity) and in community composition (beta diversity, decomposed into turnover and nestedness component) are calculated. Average projections show that copepod communities will mainly experience turn-over processes, with little changes in species richness. Species gains are mainly located in the Gulf of Lions, the Northern Adriatic and the Northern Aegean seas. However, projections are highly variable, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We show that such variability is mainly driven by the choice of the niche model, through interactions with the CO2 emission scenario or the boundary forcing of the circulation model can be locally important. Finally, the possible impact of the estimated community changes on zooplanktonic functional and phylogenetic diversity is also assessed. We encourage the enlargement of this type of study to other components of the pelagic food-web, and argue that niche models' outputs should always be given along with a measure of uncertainty, and explained in light of a strong theoretical background.

Fanny Adloff et al., The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing. © 2015, The Author(s), This study was carried out in the frame of a post-doc project funded by AXA Research Fund. We thank Loïc Houpert for providing the climatology of mixed layer depth. Most of the simulations were carried in the framework of the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de METeorología, AEMET). This work is also a contribution to the HyMeX programme (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) through INSU-MISTRALS support and the Med-CORDEX initiative (http://www.medcordex.eu/). This research has received funding from the French National Research Agency (ANR) project REMEMBER (contract ANR-12-SENV-001). We also thank the european projects FP7 CLIM-RUN (contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192) and FP7-IMPACT2C (grant 282746) for their support. G. Jordà acknowledges a “Ramón y Cajal” contract funded by the Spanish Government (RYC-2013-14714) and a postdoctoral grant from the Conselleria d’Educacio, Cultura i Universitats del Govern de les Illes Balears and the European Science Foundation

Comunicación presentada en el 40th CIESM Congress (The Mediterranean Science Commission), celebrada del 28 de octubre al 1 de noviembre de 2013 en Marsella (Francia), We performed 21st century climate change scenario simulations with a Mediterranean regional ocean model in order to assess the sensitivity of changing Mediterranean water masses to boundary forcings. Our study aims to quantify the uncertainty linked to the choice of boundary conditions such as the Atlantic hydrography at the western margin, the river runoffs or the surface fluxes. We particularly focus on changes in mean sea level and thermohaline circulation. Results show that the near-Atlantic hydrographic changes have the strongest influence on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses.

Damià Gomis et al., Comunicación presentada en las XXIX Trobades Científiques de la Mediterrània - Josep Miquel Vidal, organizadas con el título "El clima de la Mediterrània: del passat als impactes del canvi climàtic = Mediterranean Climate: from the past to climate change impacts", celebradas del 16 al 18 de octubre de 2013 en Maó, Menorca, Illes Balears (España)