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The coexistence of different species of large herbivores (ungulates) in grasslands and savannas has fascinated ecologists for decades. However, changes in climate, land‐use and trophic structure of ecosystems increasingly jeopardise the persistence of such diverse assemblages. Body size has been used successfully to explain ungulate niche differentiation with regard to food requirements and predation sensitivity. But this single trait axis insufficiently captures interspecific differences in water requirements and thermoregulatory capacity and thus sensitivity to climate change. Here, we develop a two‐dimensional trait space of body size and minimum dung moisture content that characterises the combined food and water requirements of large herbivores. From this, we predict that increased spatial homogeneity in water availability in drylands reduces the number of ungulate species that will coexist. But we also predict that extreme droughts will cause the larger, water‐dependent grazers as wildebeest, zebra and buffalo–dominant species in savanna ecosystems – to be replaced by smaller, less water‐dependent species. Subsequently, we explore how other constraints such as predation risk and thermoregulation are connected to this two‐dimensional framework. Our novel framework integrates multiple simultaneous stressors for herbivores and yields an extensive set of testable hypotheses about the expected changes in large herbivore community composition following climate change.

Natality and recruitment govern animal population dynamics, but their responses to fluctuating resources, competition, predation, shifting habitat conditions, density feedback and diseases are poorly understood. To understand the influences of climatic and land use changes on population dynamics, we monitored monthly changes in births and juvenile recruitment in seven ungulate species for 15 years (1989-2003) in the Masai Mara Reserve of Kenya. Recruitment rates declined for all species but giraffe, likely due to habitat alteration and increasing vulnerability of animals associated with recurrent severe droughts, rising temperatures, unprecedentedly strong and prolonged El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, expansion of settlements, cultivation and human population growth in pastoral ranches adjoining the reserve. Birth rate showed strong and humped relationships with moving averages of monthly rainfall, whereas recruitment responded strongly to cumulative past rainfall. Increasing livestock incursions into the reserve depressed recruitment rate for quarter-grown topi. Expansion of pastoral settlements depressed birth rate in impala, zebra and giraffe. Frequent ENSO-related droughts caused progressive habitat desiccation and hence nutritional shortfalls for ungulates. The responses to climatic, land use and resource influences did not reflect body size, migratory or resident lifestyle, dietary guild, digestive physiology or degree of synchrony of breeding of the ungulate species.

Animal population dynamics can be driven by changing climatic forcing, shifting habitat conditions, trophic interactions and anthropogenic influences. To understand these influences, we analyzed trends in populations of seven ungulate species counted during 15 years (1989-2003) of monthly monitoring using vehicle ground counts in the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya. Abundance of six species declined markedly and persistently throughout the reserve during this period. The declines were contemporaneous with progressive habitat deterioration due to changing land use in pastoral ranches bordering the reserve, habitat desiccation due to rising temperatures, recurrent severe droughts and an exceptional ENSO flood in 1997-1998. The effect of progressive habitat deterioration was accentuated by illicit harvest, competition with livestock and elevated predation. After factoring out the influence of rainfall, ungulate populations declined more markedly in sections of the reserve experiencing greater livestock incursions and poaching. The declines were significantly correlated with increasing number of settlements and people in the pastoral ranches for five species. Heightened predation following a crash in the buffalo Syncerus caffer population during a severe drought in 1993 had little support as the primary cause of the declines.

Bluetongue (BT) is a non-contagious, infectious, arthropod transmitted viral disease of domestic and wild ruminants that is caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV), the prototype member of the Orbivirus genus in the family Reoviridae. Bluetongue was first described in South Africa, where it has probably been endemic in wild ruminants since antiquity. Since its discovery BT has had a major impact on sheep breeders in the country and has therefore been a key focus of research at the Onderstepoort Veterinary Research Institute in Pretoria, South Africa. Several key discoveries were made at this Institute, including the demonstration that the aetiological agent of BT was a dsRNA virus that is transmitted by Culicoides midges and that multiple BTV serotypes circulate in nature. It is currently recognized that BT is endemic throughout most of South Africa and 22 of the 26 known serotypes have been detected in the region. Multiple serotypes circulate each vector season with the occurrence of different serotypes depending largely on herd-immunity. Indigenous sheep breeds, cattle and wild ruminants are frequently infected but rarely demonstrate clinical signs, whereas improved European sheep breeds are most susceptible. The immunization of susceptible sheep remains the most effective and practical control measure against BT. In order to protect sheep against multiple circulating serotypes, three pentavalent attenuated vaccines have been developed. Despite the proven efficacy of these vaccines in protecting sheep against the disease, several disadvantages are associated with their use in the field.

Predation risk from lions (Panthera leo) has been linked to habitat characteristics and availability and traits of prey. We separated the effects of vegetation density and the presence of drinking water by analyzing locations of lion kills in relation to rivers with dense vegetation, which offer good lion stalking opportunities, and artificial water points with low vegetation density. The spatial distribution of lion kills was studied at the Klaserie Private Nature Reserve, South Africa. The distance between 215 lion kills and the nearest water source was analyzed using generalized linear models. Lions selected medium-sized prey species. Lion kills were closer to rivers and to artificial water points than expected by random distribution of the kills. Water that attracted prey, and not the vegetation density in riverine areas, increased predation risk, with kills of buffalo (Syncerus caffer), kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), and wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) as water-dependent prey species. Traits of prey species, including feeding type (food habits), digestion type (ruminant or nonruminant), or body size, did not explain locations of lion kills, and no seasonal patterns in lion kills were apparent. We argue that the cascading impact of lions on local mammal assemblages is spatially heterogeneous.

Large species generally occur at lower population densities than small species but, being larger, use more energy per individual. The balance between population density and energy use per individual determines how evenly community resources are shared by species of different size. Analyses of large data sets, covering a wide range of body sizes, have found that population metabolism (the product of population density and energy use per individual) scales either neutrally (Damuth 1981, 1987) or negatively (Peters 1983) with body mass. However, different scaling relationships may occur in certain communities within specific biogeographic regions. Brown and Maurer (1986) found that population metabolism scales positively with body mass among North American land birds, granivorous desert rodents, marine fishes, and perennial desert plants. A comprehensive study of the relationships between mammalian population density and body mass (Peters and Raelson 1984) indicates that population metabolism scales positively with body mass among "smaller tropical" herbivores (αM0.26), "larger tropical" herbivores (αM0.45), and "larger tropical" carnivores-omnivores (αM0.28), but not among North American species (herbivores, αM0.09 ; carnivores-omnivores, αM-0.39).

1. The distributions of large herbivores in protected areas and their surroundings are becoming increasingly restricted by changing land use, with adverse consequences for wildlife populations. 2. We analyse changes in distributions of herbivore hotspots to understand their environmental and anthropogenic correlates using 50 aerial surveys conducted at a spatial resolution of 5 x 5 km(2) (n = 289 cells) in the Mara region of Kenya during 19772010. We compare the distributions across seasons, land use types (protection, pastoralism and agro-pastoralism) and 10 species with different body sizes and feeding styles. 3. Small herbivores that are the most susceptible to predation and dependent on high-quality forage concentrate in the greenest and wet areas and close to rivers in Masai pastoral ranches in both seasons. Livestock grazing creates conditions favouring small herbivores in these ranches, including high-quality short grasses and better visibility, implying facilitation. But in the reserve, they concentrate in browner, drier and flatter areas and farther from rivers, suggesting facilitation by large grazers in the wet season, or little competition with migratory herbivores occupying the reserve in the dry season. 4. In the wet season, medium herbivores concentrate in similar areas to small herbivores in the ranches and reserve. However, in the dry season, they stay in the reserve, and also concentrate in green and wet areas close to rivers when migrants occur in the reserve. As such areas typically have higher predation risk, this suggests facilitation by the migrants by absorbing most predation pressure or, alternatively, competitive displacement by the migrants from preferred habitats. 5. Large herbivores, which suffer the least predation, depend on bulk forage and are the most likely to engender conflicts with people, concentrate in the reserve all year. This suggests attraction to the taller and denser grass and perceived greater safety in the reserve in both seasons. 6. These results reveal how predation risk, forage quantity and quality, water, competition with and facilitation by livestock interact with individual life-history traits, seasons and land use in shaping the dynamics of herbivore hotspots in protected and human-dominated savannas.

1. The distributions of large herbivores in protected areas and their surroundings are becoming increasingly restricted by changing land use, with adverse consequences for wildlife populations. 2. We analyse changes in distributions of herbivore hotspots to understand their environmental and anthropogenic correlates using 50 aerial surveys conducted at a spatial resolution of 5 x 5 km(2) (n = 289 cells) in the Mara region of Kenya during 19772010. We compare the distributions across seasons, land use types (protection, pastoralism and agro-pastoralism) and 10 species with different body sizes and feeding styles. 3. Small herbivores that are the most susceptible to predation and dependent on high-quality forage concentrate in the greenest and wet areas and close to rivers in Masai pastoral ranches in both seasons. Livestock grazing creates conditions favouring small herbivores in these ranches, including high-quality short grasses and better visibility, implying facilitation. But in the reserve, they concentrate in browner, drier and flatter areas and farther from rivers, suggesting facilitation by large grazers in the wet season, or little competition with migratory herbivores occupying the reserve in the dry season. 4. In the wet season, medium herbivores concentrate in similar areas to small herbivores in the ranches and reserve. However, in the dry season, they stay in the reserve, and also concentrate in green and wet areas close to rivers when migrants occur in the reserve. As such areas typically have higher predation risk, this suggests facilitation by the migrants by absorbing most predation pressure or, alternatively, competitive displacement by the migrants from preferred habitats. 5. Large herbivores, which suffer the least predation, depend on bulk forage and are the most likely to engender conflicts with people, concentrate in the reserve all year. This suggests attraction to the taller and denser grass and perceived greater safety in the reserve in both seasons. 6. These results reveal how predation risk, forage quantity and quality, water, competition with and facilitation by livestock interact with individual life-history traits, seasons and land use in shaping the dynamics of herbivore hotspots in protected and human-dominated savannas.