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The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Near-surface winds play a crucial role in the climate of Antarctica, but accurately quantifying and understanding their drivers is complex. They result from the contribution of two distinct families of drivers: the large-scale pressure gradient and surface-induced pressure gradients known as katabatic and thermal wind. The extrapolation of vertical potential temperature above the boundary layer down to the surface enables us to separate and quantify the contribution of these different pressure gradients in the momentum budget equations. Using this method applied to outputs of the regional atmospheric model MAR at a 3-hourly resolution, we find that the seasonal and spatial variability in near-surface winds in Adélie Land is dominated by surface processes. On the other hand, high-frequency temporal variability (3-hourly) is mainly controlled by large-scale variability everywhere in Antarctica, except on the coast. In coastal regions, although the katabatic acceleration surpasses all other accelerations in magnitude, none of the katabatic or large-scale accelerations can be identified as the single primary driver of near-surface wind variability. The angle between the large-scale acceleration and the surface slope is a key factor in explaining strong wind speed events: the highest-wind-speed events happen when the katabatic and large-scale forcing are aligned, although each acceleration, when acting alone, can also cause strong wind speed. This study underlines the complexity of the drivers of Antarctic surface winds and the value of the momentum budget decomposition to identify drivers at different spatial and temporal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to complement the picture of the atmospheric water cycle in the Southern Ocean, we have continuously monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We present here the first 2-year long water vapor isotopic record at this site. We show that the water vapor isotopic composition largely follows the water vapor mixing ratio, as expected in marine boundary layers. However, we detect 11 periods of a few days where there is a strong loss of correlation between water vapor δ18 O and water vapor mixing ratio as well as abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18O. These excursions often occur toward the end of precipitation events. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Our study aims to further explore the mechanism driving these negative excursions in water vapor δ18O. We used two different models to provide a data–model comparison over this 2-year period. While the European Centre Hamburg model (ECHAM6-wiso) at 0.9° was able to reproduce most of the sharp negative water vapor δ18 O excursions, hence validating the physics process and isotopic implementation in this model, the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom model (LMDZ-iso) at 2° (3°) resolution was only able to reproduce seven (one) of the negative excursions, highlighting the possible influence of the model resolution for the study of such abrupt isotopic events. Based on our detailed model–data comparison, we conclude that the most plausible explanations for such isotopic excursions are rain–vapor interactions associated with subsidence at the rear of a precipitation event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica, the coldest and driest continent, is home to the largest ice sheet, whose mass is predominantly recharged by snowfall. A common feature of polar regions is the warming associated with snowfall, as moist oceanic air and cloud cover increase the surface temperature. Consequently, snow that accumulates on the ice sheet is deposited under unusually warm conditions. Here we use a polar-oriented regional atmospheric model to study the statistical difference between average and snowfall-weighted temperatures. During snowfall, the warm anomaly scales with snowfall amount, with the strongest sensitivity occurring at low-accumulation sites. Heavier snowfall in winter helps to decrease the annual snowfall-weighted temperature, but this effect is overwritten by the event-scale warming associated with precipitating atmospheric systems, which particularly contrast with the extremely cold conditions that occur in winter. Consequently, the seasonal range of snowfall-weighted temperature is reduced by 20 %. On the other hand, the annual snowfall-weighted temperature shows 80 % more interannual variability than the annual temperature due to the irregularity of snowfall occurrence and its associated temperature anomaly. Disturbances of the apparent annual temperature cycle and interannual variability have important consequences for the interpretation of water isotopes in precipitation, which are deposited with snowfall and commonly used for paleotemperature reconstructions from ice cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near-surface winds play a crucial role in the climate of Antarctica, but accurately quantifying and understanding their drivers is complex. They result from the contribution of two distinct families of drivers: large-scale pressure gradient, and surface-induced pressure gradients known as katabatic and thermal wind. The extrapolation of vertical potential temperature above the boundary layer down to the surface enables us to separate and quantify the contribution of these different pressure gradients in the momentum budget equations. Using this method applied to outputs of the regional atmospheric model MAR at a 3-hourly resolution, we find that the seasonal and spatial variability of near-surface winds in Adélie Land is dominated by surface processes. On the other hand, high temporal variability (3-hourly) is mainly controlled by large-scale variability everywhere in Antarctica, except in the coastal area. In these coastal regions, although the katabatic acceleration surpasses all other accelerations in magnitude, none of the katabatic nor large-scale accelerations can be identified as primary drivers of near-surface winds variability. Strong wind speed events in coastal Antarctica are driven by both katabatic and large-scale accelerations, as well as the angle between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica, the coldest and driest continent, is home to the largest ice sheet, whose mass is predominantly recharged by snowfall. A common feature of polar regions is the warming associated with snowfall, as moist oceanic air and cloud cover increase the surface temperature. Consequently, snow accumulated onto the ice sheet is deposited under unusually warm conditions. Here we use a polar-oriented regional atmospheric model to study the statistical difference between average and snowfall-weighted temperatures. During snowfall, the warm anomaly scales with snowfall amount, with strongest sensitivity at low accumulation sites. Heavier snowfall in winter contributes to cool the annual snowfall-weighted temperature, but this effect is overwritten by the event-scale warming associated with precipitating atmospheric systems, which particularly contrast with the extremely cold conditions in winter. Consequently, the seasonal range of snowfall-weighted temperature is reduced by 20 %. On the other hand, annual snowfall-weighted temperature shows 80 % more interannual variability than annual temperature, due to irregularity of snowfall occurrence and their associated temperature anomaly. Disturbance in apparent annual temperature cycle and interannual variability have important consequences for the interpretation of water isotopes in precipitation, which are deposited with snowfall and commonly used for paleo-temperature reconstructions from ice cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to complement the picture of the atmospheric water cycle in the Southern Ocean, we have continuously monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 in Amsterdam Island (37.7983 °S, 77.5378 °E) in the Indian Ocean. We present here the first 2-year-long water vapor isotopic record monitored on this site. We show that the vapor isotopic composition largely follows the vapor mixing ratio, as expected in marine boundary layers. However, we evidence 11 cold front periods of a few days where there is a strong loss of correlation between water vapor δ18O and mixing ratio. These periods are associated with abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18Ο, often occurring toward the end of precipitation events. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury suggesting subsidence of air from higher altitude. Accurately representing the water isotopic signal during these cold fronts is a real challenge for the atmospheric components of Earth System models equipped with water isotopes. While the ECHAM6-wiso model was able to reproduce most of the sharp negative water vapor δ18O excursions, the LMDZ-iso model at 2° (3°) resolution was only able to reproduce 7 (1) of the negative excursions. Based on a detail model-data comparison, we conclude that the most plausible explanations for such isotopic excursions are rain-vapor interactions associated with subsidence at the rear of a precipitation event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from -5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to 5 changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52% of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14% for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56% for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13% of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but varies between 4% for Thwaites glacier and 53% for Whillans ice stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice-climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22% of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale, but reaches 36 and 39% for Institute ice stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a context of global warming and sea level rise acceleration, it is key to estimate the evolution of the atmospheric hydrological cycle and temperature in the polar regions, which directly influence the surface mass balance of the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. Direct observations are available from satellite data for the last 40 years and a few weather data since the 50's in Antarctica. One of the best ways to access longer records is to use climate proxies in firn or ice cores. The water isotopic composition in these cores is widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations. In order to progress in our understanding of the influence of the atmospheric hydrological cycle on the water isotopic composition, we first present a 2-year long time series of vapor and precipitation isotopic composition measurement at Dumont d'Urville station, in Adélie Land. We characterize diurnal variations of meteorological parameters (temperature, humidity and δ18O) for the different seasons and determine the evolution of key relationships (δ18O versus temperature or humidity) along the year: we found mean annual slopes of 0.5 and 0.4 ‰ °C-1 for the relationship of δ18O vs. temperature in the water vapor and in the precipitation respectively. Then, this data set is used to evaluate the Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM6-wiso (model version with embedded water stable isotopes) in a region where local conditions are controlled by strong katabatic winds which directly impact the isotopic signal.We show that a combination of continental (79%) and oceanic (21%) grid cells leads model outputs (temperature, humidity and δ18O) to nicely fit the observations, even winter extreme synoptic events are represented in the model. Therefore we demonstrate the added value of long-term water vapor isotopic composition records. Then, as a clear link is found between water vapor and precipitation isotopic composition, we evaluate how isotopic enabled models can help interpreting short firn cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]